In this study, a method to simulate Gartner’s hype cycle [1] is proposed. A search of the academic
literature on this topic provides no clear guidance on how to draw hype cycle curves with mathematical
functions. This article explores a new process for simulating the curve as a combination of bell-shaped
curves and S-shaped curves, and applies this process to some high-tech innovations in Japan. Trends in
technologies such as customer relationship management (CRM), supply chain management (SCM), and
cloud computing are analyzed by using a corpus of 4,772 newspaper articles. For these examples,
Gompertz functions show better fit than logistic functions. For the combined curve, polynomial functions of
degree 9 provide the best fit, with adjusted R-square values of more than 0.97.
Data is the new oil! Modern analytical methods are a decisive success factor for service-oriented business models in IoT and Industry 4.0. A new white paper explains the state of the art and shows what latest methods can achieve in practice
The document proposes the UP-Growth+ algorithm to efficiently mine high utility itemsets from transactional databases. It first constructs a UP-Tree to store transaction information using two database scans while removing unpromising items. The UP-Tree aims to reduce overestimated utilities. Potential high utility itemsets are then generated from the UP-Tree using the UP-Growth+ algorithm through two strategies to further decrease overestimations. Finally, actual high utility itemsets are identified from the potential set by considering real utilities in the database.
1) The document discusses using the ARIMA technique for short term load forecasting of electricity demand in West Bengal, India.
2) It analyzed historical hourly load data from 2017 to build an ARIMA model and forecast demand for July 31, 2017, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 2.1778%.
3) ARIMA is identified as an appropriate univariate time series method for short term load forecasting that provides more accurate results than other techniques.
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Data visualization is an important tool to analyze complex Spatio Temporal data. The spatio-temporal data
can be visualized using 2D, 3D or any other type of maps. Cartography is the major technique used in
mapping. The data can also be visualized by placing different layers of maps one on other, which is done by
using GIS. Many data visualization techniques are in trend but the usage of the techniques must be decided
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Managing Cloud Computing Across the Product LifecycleTimo Puschkasch
Talk given by myself and David Wagner at WeB2019 about applying the well-established Product Lifecycle model when selecting the right delivery model of Cloud Computing for a digital product in the marketspace. Also provides some insights into how the delivery model should be adapted over time.
Visual and analytical mining of sales transaction data for production plannin...Gurdal Ertek
Recent developments in information technology paved the way for the collection of large amounts of data pertaining to various aspects of an enterprise. The greatest challenge faced in
processing these massive amounts of raw data gathered turns out to be the effective management of data with the ultimate purpose of deriving necessary and meaningful information
out of it. The following paper presents an attempt to illustrate the combination of visual and analytical data mining techniques for planning of marketing and production activities. The
primary phases of the proposed framework consist of filtering, clustering and comparison steps implemented using interactive pie charts, K-Means algorithm and parallel coordinate plots
respectively. A prototype decision support system is developed and a sample analysis session is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the framework.
http://research.sabanciuniv.edu.
IRJET- Enhancement in Financial Time Series Prediction with Feature Extra...IRJET Journal
The document discusses using text mining techniques like Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to extract features from financial news articles that can help predict stock market movements. It proposes a new model called Financial LDA (FinLDA) that extends LDA by incorporating changes in financial data. FinLDA is evaluated using news articles and S&P 500 index data, with the extracted features used as inputs to support vector machines (SVM) and neural networks to validate their usefulness for prediction. The goal is to build a model that can predict stock trends based on analyzing relevant news contents using time series analysis and text mining methods.
Review on Algorithmic and Non Algorithmic Software Cost Estimation Techniquesijtsrd
Effective software cost estimation is the most challenging and important activities in software development. Developers want a simple and accurate method of efforts estimation. Estimation of the cost before starting of work is a prediction and prediction always not accurate. Software effort estimation is a very critical task in the software engineering and to control quality and efficiency a suitable estimation technique is crucial. This paper gives a review of various available software effort estimation methods, mainly focus on the algorithmic model and non algorithmic model. These existing methods for software cost estimation are illustrated and their aspect will be discussed. No single technique is best for all situations, and thus a careful comparison of the results of several approaches is most likely to produce realistic estimation. This paper provides a detailed overview of existing software cost estimation models and techniques. This paper presents the strength and weakness of various cost estimation methods. This paper focuses on some of the relevant reasons that cause inaccurate estimation. Pa Pa Win | War War Myint | Hlaing Phyu Phyu Mon | Seint Wint Thu "Review on Algorithmic and Non-Algorithmic Software Cost Estimation Techniques" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-5 , August 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd26511.pdfPaper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/-/26511/review-on-algorithmic-and-non-algorithmic-software-cost-estimation-techniques/pa-pa-win
Data is the new oil! Modern analytical methods are a decisive success factor for service-oriented business models in IoT and Industry 4.0. A new white paper explains the state of the art and shows what latest methods can achieve in practice
The document proposes the UP-Growth+ algorithm to efficiently mine high utility itemsets from transactional databases. It first constructs a UP-Tree to store transaction information using two database scans while removing unpromising items. The UP-Tree aims to reduce overestimated utilities. Potential high utility itemsets are then generated from the UP-Tree using the UP-Growth+ algorithm through two strategies to further decrease overestimations. Finally, actual high utility itemsets are identified from the potential set by considering real utilities in the database.
1) The document discusses using the ARIMA technique for short term load forecasting of electricity demand in West Bengal, India.
2) It analyzed historical hourly load data from 2017 to build an ARIMA model and forecast demand for July 31, 2017, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 2.1778%.
3) ARIMA is identified as an appropriate univariate time series method for short term load forecasting that provides more accurate results than other techniques.
A Study on Data Visualization Techniques of Spatio Temporal DataIJMTST Journal
Data visualization is an important tool to analyze complex Spatio Temporal data. The spatio-temporal data
can be visualized using 2D, 3D or any other type of maps. Cartography is the major technique used in
mapping. The data can also be visualized by placing different layers of maps one on other, which is done by
using GIS. Many data visualization techniques are in trend but the usage of the techniques must be decided
by considering the application requirements.
Managing Cloud Computing Across the Product LifecycleTimo Puschkasch
Talk given by myself and David Wagner at WeB2019 about applying the well-established Product Lifecycle model when selecting the right delivery model of Cloud Computing for a digital product in the marketspace. Also provides some insights into how the delivery model should be adapted over time.
Visual and analytical mining of sales transaction data for production plannin...Gurdal Ertek
Recent developments in information technology paved the way for the collection of large amounts of data pertaining to various aspects of an enterprise. The greatest challenge faced in
processing these massive amounts of raw data gathered turns out to be the effective management of data with the ultimate purpose of deriving necessary and meaningful information
out of it. The following paper presents an attempt to illustrate the combination of visual and analytical data mining techniques for planning of marketing and production activities. The
primary phases of the proposed framework consist of filtering, clustering and comparison steps implemented using interactive pie charts, K-Means algorithm and parallel coordinate plots
respectively. A prototype decision support system is developed and a sample analysis session is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the framework.
http://research.sabanciuniv.edu.
IRJET- Enhancement in Financial Time Series Prediction with Feature Extra...IRJET Journal
The document discusses using text mining techniques like Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to extract features from financial news articles that can help predict stock market movements. It proposes a new model called Financial LDA (FinLDA) that extends LDA by incorporating changes in financial data. FinLDA is evaluated using news articles and S&P 500 index data, with the extracted features used as inputs to support vector machines (SVM) and neural networks to validate their usefulness for prediction. The goal is to build a model that can predict stock trends based on analyzing relevant news contents using time series analysis and text mining methods.
Review on Algorithmic and Non Algorithmic Software Cost Estimation Techniquesijtsrd
Effective software cost estimation is the most challenging and important activities in software development. Developers want a simple and accurate method of efforts estimation. Estimation of the cost before starting of work is a prediction and prediction always not accurate. Software effort estimation is a very critical task in the software engineering and to control quality and efficiency a suitable estimation technique is crucial. This paper gives a review of various available software effort estimation methods, mainly focus on the algorithmic model and non algorithmic model. These existing methods for software cost estimation are illustrated and their aspect will be discussed. No single technique is best for all situations, and thus a careful comparison of the results of several approaches is most likely to produce realistic estimation. This paper provides a detailed overview of existing software cost estimation models and techniques. This paper presents the strength and weakness of various cost estimation methods. This paper focuses on some of the relevant reasons that cause inaccurate estimation. Pa Pa Win | War War Myint | Hlaing Phyu Phyu Mon | Seint Wint Thu "Review on Algorithmic and Non-Algorithmic Software Cost Estimation Techniques" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-5 , August 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd26511.pdfPaper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/-/26511/review-on-algorithmic-and-non-algorithmic-software-cost-estimation-techniques/pa-pa-win
Thesis_Final_IT Outsourcing Theory Case Studies Arta Leci 29092016Arta Leci
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This document discusses three frameworks used by Gartner Group to analyze information systems research: the technology maturity curve, adoption curve, and identification of strategic technologies. The maturity curve tracks how a technology matures over time through various stages from embryonic to obsolescence. The adoption curve shows how technologies are adopted cumulatively by organizations over time. Considering where technologies fall on these curves can provide insights into appropriate research questions and methodologies. Identifying strategic technologies may help determine promising areas for new research.
This document discusses three frameworks used by Gartner Group to analyze information systems research: the technology maturity curve, adoption curve, and identification of strategic technologies. The maturity curve tracks how a technology matures over time through various stages from embryonic to obsolescence. The adoption curve shows how technologies are adopted cumulatively by organizations over time. Considering where technologies fall on these curves can provide insights into appropriate research questions and methodologies. Identifying strategic technologies may help determine promising areas for new research.
The document provides an overview of digitalization, automation, and the three primary technologies enabling job automation: artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics. It defines key terms like digitalization and discusses the history and development of digitalization. The overview aims to establish an understanding of these concepts before assessing their potential to substitute human labor.
Analysis of data quality and information quality problems in digital manufact...Mary Montoya
This document summarizes an analysis of data quality and information quality problems in digital manufacturing. It begins by reviewing related works on data quality, including definitions, dimensions, measurement, and improvement. It then analyzes different information roles, manufacturing processes, and factors that influence information quality in digital manufacturing. Finally, it proposes an approach for diagnosing, controlling, and improving data/information quality in digital manufacturing companies.
A SECURITY EVALUATION FRAMEWORK FOR U.K. E-GOVERNMENT SERVICES AGILE SOFTWARE...IJNSA Journal
This study examines the traditional approach to software development within the United Kingdom Government and the accreditation process. Initially we look at the Waterfall methodology that has been used for several years. We discuss the pros and cons of Waterfall before moving onto the Agile Scrum methodology. Agile has been adopted by the majority of Government digital departments including the Government Digital Services. Agile, despite its ability to achieve high rates of productivity organized in short, flexible, iterations, has faced security professionals’ disbelief when working within the U.K. Government. One of the major issues is that we develop in Agile but the accreditation process is conducted using Waterfall resulting in delays to go live dates. Taking a brief look into the accreditation process that is used within Government for I.T. systems and applications, we focus on giving the accreditor the assurance they need when developing new applications and systems. A framework has been produced by utilising the Open Web Application Security Project’s (OWASP) Application Security Verification Standard (ASVS). This framework will allow security and Agile to work side by side and produce secure code.
A SECURITY EVALUATION FRAMEWORK FOR U.K. E-GOVERNMENT SERVICES AGILE SOFTWARE...IJNSA Journal
The document discusses software development methodologies used by the UK government, specifically comparing the traditional Waterfall methodology to the more modern Agile Scrum methodology. It notes that while Agile has been adopted for development, the accreditation process still follows Waterfall, creating delays. The document then proposes a security framework based on OWASP's Application Security Verification Standard that could allow secure development within Agile sprints and provide assurance for accreditors.
An Approach of Improve Efficiencies through DevOps AdoptionIRJET Journal
This document discusses adopting DevOps practices to improve organizational efficiencies. It begins with an abstract discussing how organizations waste resources and how DevOps aims to address this through lean principles and continuous feedback. It then discusses the history and concepts of DevOps, proposing a DevOps adoption model. It outlines factors that affect IT performance and cultural transformation. The document also describes the research design of a study conducted through interviews with DevOps professionals. It identifies four main challenges to DevOps adoption: lack of awareness, lack of support, implementing technologies, and adapting processes. The analysis focuses on the lack of awareness challenge, noting confusion around DevOps definitions and resistance to "buzzwords".
A Preliminary Literature Review Of Digital Transformation Case StudiesCourtney Esco
This document summarizes a literature review on digital transformation case studies. The review analyzed 29 case study papers from 2010 to 2018 based on attributes like publication year, country of origin, industry, and focus of digital transformation concept. The review found that research on digital transformation case studies has grown significantly since 2016. Cases represented a variety of industries and countries. While technologies were a key part of digital transformation efforts, organizations also recognized the need for organizational changes. However, the review identified digital transformation as a still emerging topic needing further examination through additional case studies.
There is a strong connection between system success and
early identification of users` needs.The Concept of Operation
document (ConOps) is an important component for understanding
any system clearly on early stages and for guiding a better change
process from current state to desired state. There is no specific
method that could aid in the process of collecting and analyzing the
necessary information to create ConOps document, a lot of analysts
face difficulties writing an efficient ConOps document .In this
paper we argue that producing ConOps using ArchiMate helps in
the process of creating ConOps clauses. We attempt to relate
ConOps to ArchiMate Modeling language then prove that ConOps
document and ArchiMate modeling language could represent each
other efficiently. We also discuss how modeling the ConOps clauses
using ArchiMate promotes better understandability and
communication to understand the users` needs.
This study examined factors that predict the acceptance of Computer Supported Collaborative Work (CSCW) by architectural firms in Nigeria. The study surveyed 118 architectural firms across six cities in Nigeria. Multiple regression analysis showed that perceived ease-of-use, security, and quality of installed systems predicted acceptance of CSCW, but perceived usefulness did not. Only 37.3% of firms had adopted CSCW. The study developed an extended Technology Acceptance Model to show that architectural firms in Nigeria will accept CSCW if it is easy to use, secure, and they have quality systems to support it.
IRJET- Fake News Detection using Logistic RegressionIRJET Journal
1) The document discusses a study that uses logistic regression to classify news articles as real or fake. It outlines the methodology which includes data preprocessing, feature extraction using bag-of-words and TF-IDF, and using a logistic regression classifier to predict fake news.
2) The model achieved an accuracy of approximately 72% at classifying news as real or fake when using TF-IDF features and logistic regression.
3) The study aims to address the growing issue of fake news proliferation online by developing a computational method for identifying unreliable news sources.
MITIGATING RISK THROUGH AUTOMATIC TEMPERATURE SENSINGIRJET Journal
This document discusses the development of an Automatic Temperature Sensing (ATS) system using IoT and Arduino to help mitigate risks from Covid-19. The system is designed to automatically detect people's temperatures without contact in public spaces to identify potential Covid cases. The document outlines the ATS design process including use case modeling, activity diagrams, class diagrams, and sequence diagrams. It also describes the hardware and software implementation including an MLX90614 temperature sensor, Arduino Uno, breadboard, wires, and Arduino IDE. Testing showed the system could accurately detect normal and elevated temperatures to help control access and reduce virus spread. The research concludes ATS has potential to help manage pandemic risks if implemented in locations where people
IRJET- Comparative Analysis between Critical Path Method and Monte Carlo S...IRJET Journal
This document compares the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Monte Carlo simulation for project scheduling. CPM uses deterministic activity durations to calculate the critical path and project duration. Monte Carlo simulation incorporates uncertainty by using three time estimates per activity - optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely - represented as probability distributions. It runs thousands of simulations to determine the likely project duration based on random sampling from these distributions. The document reviews literature on applying Monte Carlo simulation in construction projects. It then describes a study that uses both CPM and Monte Carlo simulation on a real construction project to compare the results and evaluate Monte Carlo simulation's usefulness for the construction industry.
This document discusses assessing the digital transformation maturity of Taiwan's motherboard industry. It begins with an introduction to digital transformation and how the motherboard industry is facing challenges that require remodeling through digital transformation.
It then reviews literature on digital transformation maturity models and their application in manufacturing. The document develops a framework to assess the motherboard industry's digital transformation maturity, including dimensions of procurement, R&D, manufacturing, logistics, customer service, and relationships.
An expert interview and fuzzy AHP method are used to analyze the weights of dimensions and criteria to understand their relationships. This provides an objective assessment scale to evaluate the industry's current operations and guide its digital transformation path.
The Danger of Architectural Technical Debt Contagious Debt .docxarnoldmeredith47041
The Danger of Architectural Technical Debt:
Contagious Debt and Vicious Circles
Antonio Martini
Computer Science and Engineering, Software Engineering
Chalmers University of Technology
Göteborg, Sweden
[email protected]
Jan Bosch
Computer Science and Engineering, Software Engineering
Chalmers University of Technology
Göteborg, Sweden
[email protected]
Abstract — A known problem in large software companies
is to balance the prioritization of short-term with long-term
viability. Specifically, architecture violations (Architecture
Technical Debt) taken to deliver fast might hinder future
feature development. However, some technical debt requires
more interest to be paid than other. We have investigated
which Technical Debt items generate more effort and how this
effort is manifested during software development. We
conducted a multiple-case embedded case study
comprehending 7 sites at 5 large international software
companies. We found that some Technical Debt items are
contagious, causing other parts of the system to be
contaminated with the same problem, which may lead to non-
linear growth of interest. We also identify another socio-
technical phenomenon, for which a combination of weak
awareness of debt, time pressure and refactoring creates
Vicious Circles of events during the development. Such
phenomena need to be identified and stopped before the
development is led to a crisis point. Finally, this paper
presents a taxonomy of the most dangerous items identified
during the qualitative investigation and a model of their
effects that can be used for prioritization, for further
investigation and as a quality model for extracting more
precise and context-specific metrics.
Index terms—architectural technical debt, agile software
development, effort, socio-technical phenomena, multiple
case-study, qualitative model.
I. INTRODUCTION
Large software industries strive to make their development
processes fast and more responsive, minimizing the time
between the identification of a customer need and the delivery
of a solution. The trend in the last decade has been the
employment of Agile Software Development (ASD) [1]. At the
same time, the responsiveness in the short-term deliveries
should not lead to less responsiveness in the long run. To
illustrate such a phenomenon, a financial metaphor has been
coined, which compares the trend of taking sub-optimal
decisions in order to meet short-term goals to the taking debt,
which has to be repaid with interests in the long term. Such a
concept is referred as Technical Debt (TD), and recently it has
been recognized as a useful basis for the development of
theoretical and practical frameworks [2]. Tom et al. [3] have
explored the TD metaphor and outlined a first framework in
2013. Part of the overall TD is to be related to architecture sub-
optimal decisions, and it’s regarded as Architecture Technical
Debt (ADT)[2]. ATD is regarded as violations in.
MULTIMODAL COURSE DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION USING LEML AND LMS FOR INSTRUCTIO...IJMIT JOURNAL
Traditionally, teaching has been centered around classroom delivery. However, the onslaught of the
COVID-19 pandemic has cultivated usage of technology, teaching, and learning methodologies for course
delivery. We investigate and describe different modes of course delivery that maintain the integrity of
teaching and learning. This paper answers to the research questions: 1) What course delivery method our
academic institutions use and why? 2) How can instructors validate the guidelines of the institutions? 3)
How courses should be taught to provide student learning outcomes? Using the Learning Environment
Modeling Language (LEML), we investigate the design and implementation of courses for delivery in the
following environments: face-to-face, online synchronous, asynchronous, hybrid, and hyflex. A good
course design and implementation are key components of instructional alignment. Furthermore, we
demonstrate how to design, implement, and deliver courses in synchronous, asynchronous, and hybrid
modes and describe our proposed enhancements to LEML.
Novel R&D Capabilities as a Response to ESG Risks-Lessons From Amazon’s Fusio...IJMIT JOURNAL
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) management is essential for transforming corporate
financial performance-oriented business strategies into Finance (F) + ESG optimization strategies to
achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
In this trend, the rise of ESG risks has divided firms into two categories. Former incorporates a growthmindset that creates a passion for learning, and urges it to improve itself by endeavoring Research and
development (R&D) -driven challenges, while the other category, characterized by risk aversion, avoids
challenging highly uncertain R&D activities and seeks more manageable endeavors.
This duality underscores the complexity of corporate R&D strategies in addressing ESG risks and
necessitates the development of novel R&D capabilities for corporate R&D transformation strategies
towards F + ESG optimization.
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The Danger of Architectural Technical Debt Contagious Debt .docxarnoldmeredith47041
The Danger of Architectural Technical Debt:
Contagious Debt and Vicious Circles
Antonio Martini
Computer Science and Engineering, Software Engineering
Chalmers University of Technology
Göteborg, Sweden
[email protected]
Jan Bosch
Computer Science and Engineering, Software Engineering
Chalmers University of Technology
Göteborg, Sweden
[email protected]
Abstract — A known problem in large software companies
is to balance the prioritization of short-term with long-term
viability. Specifically, architecture violations (Architecture
Technical Debt) taken to deliver fast might hinder future
feature development. However, some technical debt requires
more interest to be paid than other. We have investigated
which Technical Debt items generate more effort and how this
effort is manifested during software development. We
conducted a multiple-case embedded case study
comprehending 7 sites at 5 large international software
companies. We found that some Technical Debt items are
contagious, causing other parts of the system to be
contaminated with the same problem, which may lead to non-
linear growth of interest. We also identify another socio-
technical phenomenon, for which a combination of weak
awareness of debt, time pressure and refactoring creates
Vicious Circles of events during the development. Such
phenomena need to be identified and stopped before the
development is led to a crisis point. Finally, this paper
presents a taxonomy of the most dangerous items identified
during the qualitative investigation and a model of their
effects that can be used for prioritization, for further
investigation and as a quality model for extracting more
precise and context-specific metrics.
Index terms—architectural technical debt, agile software
development, effort, socio-technical phenomena, multiple
case-study, qualitative model.
I. INTRODUCTION
Large software industries strive to make their development
processes fast and more responsive, minimizing the time
between the identification of a customer need and the delivery
of a solution. The trend in the last decade has been the
employment of Agile Software Development (ASD) [1]. At the
same time, the responsiveness in the short-term deliveries
should not lead to less responsiveness in the long run. To
illustrate such a phenomenon, a financial metaphor has been
coined, which compares the trend of taking sub-optimal
decisions in order to meet short-term goals to the taking debt,
which has to be repaid with interests in the long term. Such a
concept is referred as Technical Debt (TD), and recently it has
been recognized as a useful basis for the development of
theoretical and practical frameworks [2]. Tom et al. [3] have
explored the TD metaphor and outlined a first framework in
2013. Part of the overall TD is to be related to architecture sub-
optimal decisions, and it’s regarded as Architecture Technical
Debt (ADT)[2]. ATD is regarded as violations in.
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Simulating hype cycle curves with mathematical functions some examples of high tech trends in japan
1. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
DOI : 10.5121/ijmit.2015.7201 1
SIMULATING HYPE CYCLE CURVES WITH
MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS : SOME EXAMPLES OF
HIGH-TECH TRENDS IN JAPAN
Hiroshi Sasaki1
1
College of Business, Rikkyo University, Tokyo, Japan
ABSTRACT
In this study, a method to simulate Gartner’s hype cycle [1] is proposed. A search of the academic
literature on this topic provides no clear guidance on how to draw hype cycle curves with mathematical
functions. This article explores a new process for simulating the curve as a combination of bell-shaped
curves and S-shaped curves, and applies this process to some high-tech innovations in Japan. Trends in
technologies such as customer relationship management (CRM), supply chain management (SCM), and
cloud computing are analyzed by using a corpus of 4,772 newspaper articles. For these examples,
Gompertz functions show better fit than logistic functions. For the combined curve, polynomial functions of
degree 9 provide the best fit, with adjusted R-square values of more than 0.97.
KEYWORDS
Hype cycle, High-tech innovation, S-shaped curves, Diffusion of innovations
1. INTRODUCTION
Gartner’s hype cycle [1] is a popular method for visually showing an ongoing high-tech
innovation process. Fenn and Raskino [2] noted that “the hype cycle’s particular contribution is in
highlighting the challenge of adopting an innovation during the early stages of the innovation’s
life cycle.” Executives and managers check new hype cycle reports as a means of trying to find
new technological trends.
This study explores a new approach for simulating hype cycle curves with mathematical
functions. This paper is organized as follows. The next section reviews the literature related to the
generation of the hype cycle. After this, we propose a three-step process for simulating hype cycle
curves and then apply that process to some high-tech innovations, examining trends in areas such
as customer relationship management (CRM), supply chain management (SCM), and cloud
computing in Japan.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Five key phases of the hype cycle
Gartner’s hype cycle consists of five key phases [1]. The first phase is Innovation trigger
(Technology trigger), which begins when an announcement about a technological development
drives sudden interest [2]. In “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2014” [3], “bio acoustic
sensing” appears in the first phase. The second phase, Peak of inflated expectations, begins when
2. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
2
publicized stories capture the excitement around the innovation and reinforce the need to become
a part of it [2][4]. In the same report [3], “data science” is shown entering into the second phase,
and the “Internet of Things” is positioned at the top of the peak of expectations, where it displaces
the trend on “big data.” The third phase, Trough of disillusionment, occurs when impatience for
results begins to replace the original excitement about potential value [2]. Fenn and& Raskino [2]
explains that “a number of less favorable stories start to emerge as most companies realize things
aren’t as easy as they first seemed”. In 2014, we see “cloud computing” reaching the bottom of
the trough. During the fourth phase, Slope of enlightenment, early adopters overcome the initial
hurdles, and understanding grows about where the innovation can be used[2]. Three-dimensional
(3D) technologies, such as “Enterprise 3D printing” and “3D scanners,” are in this phase. The last
phase, Plateau of productivity, begins when growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable
with the now greatly reduced levels of risk [2].
Thus, Gartner’s hype cycle [1] clarifies the position of each high-tech innovation. However, only
those in the Gartner organization can create the hype cycle, and researchers outside of Gartner
have no tools to generate it.
2.2. How to measure technology expectations
A critical issue for this study is to provide a measure for technology expectations. To do so, we
searched for empirical studies that meet the conditions below.
1. Source: The articles available in August 2014 in the Academic Source Premier and
Business Source Premier databases of EBSCO Information Services
2. Key word: The phrase “hype cycle” was used for the search.
3. Conditions: The search was restricted to academic journals and periodicals published
in English.
As a result, 25 articles were extracted. We extracted 66 additional articles (including 2 duplicates)
from the Science Direct database by searching for “Gartner’s hype cycle.” After eliminating the
duplicates and 22 articles from fields other than social sciences, 67 articles remained. These
articles were categorized into three types: qualitative analysis (53 articles), quantitative analysis
(9 articles), and other (5 articles; essays, editor’s comments, etc.).
(1) Articles with qualitative analysis
Figure 1 shows the technologies covered by 53 articles that focused on qualitative analysis. In
these studies, researchers try to apply the hype cycle model to education, cloud computing,
security, software, and energy and the environment, among other topics.
3. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2
Figure 1. Technologies discussed in 53 papers
(2) Articles with quantitative analysis
Table 1 illustrates the measures and data sources employed in the 9 articles for
cycle curves[5][6][7][8][9][10][1
(technology expectations) from
number of items about the technology (news stories, papers, books, and so on); in contrast, patent
statistics are commonly used
productivity.
Table 1. Summary of quan
No Authors
1 Gray et al. (2014)[5]
Accounting
publications
2 Lente et al. (2013)[6]
Voice over internet protocol (VoIP),
gene therapy
superconductivity.
3 Budde et al. (2013)[7]
Hybrid
Fuel
4 Vahid (2012)[8] Unified Modeling Language
5 Jun (2012)[9] Hybrid cars
6 Konrad (2012)[10] Stationary fuel cells
7 Kim et al. (2012)[11] Approx. 500
8
Ruef& Markard
(2010)[12]
Stationary fuel cells
9 Konrad (2006)[13]
Electronic commerce and interactive
television
International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
Technologies discussed in 53 papers with qualitative analysis
(2) Articles with quantitative analysis
Table 1 illustrates the measures and data sources employed in the 9 articles for simulating
11][12][13]. It is popular in these studies to measure the cycle
from Innovation trigger to Trough of disillusionment by counting the
number of items about the technology (news stories, papers, books, and so on); in contrast, patent
when measuring from Slope of enlightenment to
Table 1. Summary of quantitative measures
Subject Method of Measurement
Accounting-related expert systems
publications
Yearly distribution of expert
systems research
Voice over internet protocol (VoIP),
gene therapy, and high-temperature
superconductivity.
Number of newspaper articles
Hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV) and
Fuel-cell vehicle (FCV) technology
Number of press releases
patent statistics
Unified Modeling Language (UML)
Number of books on
Hybrid cars
Search traffic on Google,
articles, and patent statistics
Stationary fuel cells Number of newspaper articles
Approx. 500 emerging technologies
Papers and patents
information, Decision tree
model
Stationary fuel cells Number of newspaper articles
Electronic commerce and interactive
television
Number of newspaper articles
, May 2015
3
simulating hype
to measure the cycle
by counting the
number of items about the technology (news stories, papers, books, and so on); in contrast, patent
to Plateau of
Method of Measurement
early distribution of expert
Number of newspaper articles
umber of press releases and
books on UML
earch traffic on Google, news
patent statistics
umber of newspaper articles
Papers and patents
information, Decision tree
umber of newspaper articles
umber of newspaper articles
4. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
4
The contents of Table 1 are consistent with the findings of Jun[9], who notes that the number of
news stories and patents can well explain consumer behavior along the hype cycle. More
importantly, in the same article, Jun divides the hype cycle into two separate curves, and states
that a) the first curve is a bell curve representing the initial cycle of enthusiasm and
disappointment, and b) the second curve is an S-shaped curve showing how an innovation's
performance improves slowly at first and then accelerates steadily before finally yielding
diminishing returns [9].
We adopt this idea of treating hype cycle curves as comprising two stages. We call them as “the
hype stage” and “the implementation stage”.
(A) The hype stage: This stage covers the period from Innovation trigger to Trough of
disillusionment. The curve for this stage can be constructed as a bell-shaped curve, with
time along one axis and the instantaneous (non-cumulative) number of articles along the
other. One popular way to measure this stage is to use the number of items (newspaper
articles, academic papers, books) mentioning the technology or the volume of search
traffic about the technology as the non-time axis.
(B) The implementation stage: This stage covers Slope of enlightenment and Plateau of
productivity. The curves for this stage can be simulated by S-shaped curves with time
along one axis and cumulative number of articles along the other. In some of the
literature, patent statistics are used for the non-time axis.
3. A PROCESS FOR SIMULATINGHYPE CYCLE CURVES WITH
MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS
To position ongoing high-tech innovations along a hype cycle curve, mathematical functions are
needed. This section proposes a three-step process for doing so, with mathematical functions.
(1) Data collection
Similar to previous studies, this paper uses newspaper articles. After collecting newspaper data
for each high-tech innovation, we divide the articles into two stages, (A) the hype stage and (B)
the implementation stage, according to the content of the article. The key issue at this point is
how to determine which stage should be used for each article. Among the titles of the articles, a
substantial number mention either organizational changes or the appointment of managers as
innovation proceeds. Such articles state, for example, “Company X appointed Mr. Y as a new
SCM leader” or “Company X forms a new SCM division.” This type of article indicates that the
mentioned company is in the implementation stage. We can partition articles into one of the two
stages on the basis of this type of content.
(2) Curve fitting
There are several cumulative time series that form an S-shaped curve. To seek the best S-shaped
curve for each stage, two sigmoid functions (Gompertz and logistic) were examined. It should be
noted that, in our previous study [14], we found that Gompertz functions fit better than logistic
functions for some IT innovations. The forms of these functions are given by the following.
1.Logistic function: y = a / (1 + b exp(-k x))
2.Gompertz function: y =a exp ( -exp(–k (x-ݔ)))
5. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2
These two functions are distinguished by differences in their waveforms. The logistic function
provides a curve that is symmetrical
function forms a curve that is not symmetrical around the point of inflection.
the two functions to the two stages
To form a curve for the hype stage, S
transformed to bell-shaped curves that use non
after data standardization, we obtain an initial hype cycle curve (see the dotted curve in Fig
Figure 3. A sample hype
(3) Polynomial fitting
We conduct polynomial fitting to
Polynomial functions of degrees
1. Polynomial functions of degree 5:
2. Polynomial functions of degree 7:
3. Polynomial functions of degree 9:
International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
These two functions are distinguished by differences in their waveforms. The logistic function
provides a curve that is symmetrical around the inflection point; in contrast, the Gompertz
function forms a curve that is not symmetrical around the point of inflection. This
the two stages separately(Figure 2).
Figure 2. A sample curve fitting
stage, S-shaped curves (formed by using cumulative data) will be
shaped curves that use non-cumulative data. By combining the two curves
after data standardization, we obtain an initial hype cycle curve (see the dotted curve in Fig
Figure 3. A sample hype cycle curve
We conduct polynomial fitting to express the dotted curve with mathematical functions
5, 7, and 9 are tested.
Polynomial functions of degree 5: y ൌ ݅݊ݐ݁ܿݎ݁ݐ ∑ ሺܤݔሻହ
ୀଵ
Polynomial functions of degree 7:y ൌ ݅݊ݐ݁ܿݎ݁ݐ ∑ ሺܤݔሻ
ୀଵ
Polynomial functions of degree 9:y ൌ ݅݊ݐ݁ܿݎ݁ݐ ∑ ሺܤݔሻଽ
ୀଵ
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5
These two functions are distinguished by differences in their waveforms. The logistic function
point; in contrast, the Gompertz
study applies
shaped curves (formed by using cumulative data) will be
cumulative data. By combining the two curves
after data standardization, we obtain an initial hype cycle curve (see the dotted curve in Figure 3).
with mathematical functions.
6. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2
4. HYPE CYCLE CURVE
INNOVATIONS IN JAPAN
Articles printed in the Nikkei newspaper (Japan’s leading economic newspaper) are used as data
for simulating hype cycle curves. All articles printed in the Nikkei morning edition from 1990 to
the end of March 2014 were searched, and articles containing an
selected: SCM, CRM, and cloud computing. From among all articles,
extracted: 616 articles for CRM; 1,550 for SCM;
4.1. CRM
Figure 4 shows the diffusion process for CRM in Ja
stage represents the non-cumulative number of articles about CRM, and the line graph for the
implementation stage represents the cumulative number of articles on the same topic.
Figure 4. Time series of Nikkei articles about CRM
We fit Gompertz and logistic functions to the two line graphs. As a result, the Gompertz functions
showed better fit than the logistic functions for both stages (see Table
squared values).
Table 2. S
Logistic function
Number of points
Degrees of freedom
Reduced Chi-squared
Residual sum of squares
Adj. R-squared
Gompertz function
Number of points
Degrees of freedom
Reduced Chi-squared
Residual sum of squares
Adj. R-squared
International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
CURVE SIMULATION FOR HIGH-TECH
JAPAN
Articles printed in the Nikkei newspaper (Japan’s leading economic newspaper) are used as data
s. All articles printed in the Nikkei morning edition from 1990 to
the end of March 2014 were searched, and articles containing any of the following terms were
cloud computing. From among all articles, 4,772
extracted: 616 articles for CRM; 1,550 for SCM; and 2,606 for cloud computing.
Figure 4 shows the diffusion process for CRM in Japan. In this figure, the line graph for the hype
cumulative number of articles about CRM, and the line graph for the
implementation stage represents the cumulative number of articles on the same topic.
Figure 4. Time series of Nikkei articles about CRM
We fit Gompertz and logistic functions to the two line graphs. As a result, the Gompertz functions
showed better fit than the logistic functions for both stages (see Table 2 for the adjusted R
Table 2. S-shaped curve fitting for CRM
Logistic function Hype stage Implementation stage
oints 16 16
reedom 13 13
uared 161.88294 41.47205
quares 2104.47818 539.13661
0.97206 0.97748
Gompertz function Hype stage Implementation stage
oints 16 16
reedom 13 13
squared 74.1598 18.12732
quares 964.0774 235.6552
0.9872 0.99016
(B) Implementation stage
(A)Hype stage
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Articles printed in the Nikkei newspaper (Japan’s leading economic newspaper) are used as data
s. All articles printed in the Nikkei morning edition from 1990 to
y of the following terms were
articles were
pan. In this figure, the line graph for the hype
cumulative number of articles about CRM, and the line graph for the
implementation stage represents the cumulative number of articles on the same topic.
We fit Gompertz and logistic functions to the two line graphs. As a result, the Gompertz functions
for the adjusted R-
Implementation stage
Implementation stage
7. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2
Table 3 shows the best-fit parameter values for the Gompertz function. After data standardization,
the initial hype cycle with a bell
implementation stage can be obtained (Fig
Table 3. Best
Best fit parameters
Hype stage
Implementation stage
Figure 5.Bell-shaped curve and
Next, we conducted polynomial fitting to seek the best
results. The best-fit function was a polynomial of degree 9
By using the parameter values (B
CRM (Figure 6; the circle indicates the position of 2014).
Table 4. Polynomial fitting for CRM
Polynomial,degree
Number of p
Degrees of freedom
Residual sum of
Adj. R-Square
Polynomial,degree
Number of p
Degrees of freedom
Residual sum of
Adj. R-square
Polynomial,degree
Number of p
Degrees of freedom
Residual sum of
Adj. R-square
International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
fit parameter values for the Gompertz function. After data standardization,
the initial hype cycle with a bell-shaped curve for the hype stage and an S-shaped curve for the
implementation stage can be obtained (Figure 5).
Table 3. Best-fit parameter values of Gompertz function
est fit parameters Value
Standard
error
Hype stage a 219.807 5.36602
xc 4.43241 0.16187
k 0.35532 0.03165
Implementation stage a 128.6113 3.96502
xc 5.31204 0.18904
k 0.28213 0.02388
shaped curve and S-shaped curve for CRM (after data standardization)
Next, we conducted polynomial fitting to seek the best-fit functions. Table 4 summarizes the
fit function was a polynomial of degree 9 (adjusted R-squared value of 0.99229).
By using the parameter values (B1to B9 and the intercept), we can draw a hype cycle
6; the circle indicates the position of 2014).
Table 4. Polynomial fitting for CRM
,degree5
points 33
reedom 27
um of squares 1.65385
Squared 0.83371
,degree7
points 33
reedom 25
um of squares 0.43774
quared 0.95247
,degree9
points 33
reedom 23
um of squares 0.06536
quared 0.99229
, May 2015
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fit parameter values for the Gompertz function. After data standardization,
shaped curve for the
(after data standardization)
Table 4 summarizes the
value of 0.99229).
and the intercept), we can draw a hype cycle curve for
8. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2
Figure 6.
4.2. SCM
Similarly, Figures7, 8, and Table 5 show the process to
We obtain Figure 9 (the best-fit function was a polynomial of degree 9
0.99656) as the result of that process.
Figure 7. Time series of Nikkei articles about SCM
International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
Figure 6. Simulated hype cycle curve for CRM
and Table 5 show the process to simulate the hype cycle curve for SCM.
fit function was a polynomial of degree 9 with Adj. R
as the result of that process.
Figure 7. Time series of Nikkei articles about SCM
, May 2015
8
the hype cycle curve for SCM.
Adj. R-squared:
9. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2
Figure 8. Bell-shaped curve and
Table 5. S
Logistic function
Number of points
Degrees of freedom
Reduced Chi-squared
Residual sum of squares
Adj. R-squared
Gompertz function
Number of points
Degrees of freedom
Reduced Chi-squared
Residual sum of squares
Adj. R-squared
Polynomial
Number of
Degrees of
Residual
Figure 9.
International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
shaped curve and S-shaped curve for SCM (after data standardization)
Table 5. S-shaped curve fitting for SCM
Logistic function Hype stage Implementation stage
17 17
14 14
uared 380.89083 117.77175
quares 5332.47167 1648.80457
0.98341 0.98166
Gompertz function Hype stage Implementation stage
17 17
14 14
ed 131.17589 45.66755
quares 1836.4625 639.34571
0.99429 0.99289
Polynomial of degree 9
Number of points 34
Degrees of freedom 24
Residual sum of squares 0.03615
Adj. R-squared 0.99656
Figure 9. Simulated hype cycle curve for SCM
, May 2015
9
(after data standardization)
Implementation stage
Implementation stage
10. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2
4.3. Cloud computing
Cloud computing is still in the hype stage and experiencing growth. Figures 10
show the process, and Figure 12 show
function was a polynomial of degree 9 with
proposed method.
Figure 10. Time series of Nikkei articles about cloud computing
Figure 11. Bell-shaped curve and
Table 6. S-shaped curve fitting
Logistic function
Number of points
Degrees of freedom
Reduced Chi-squared
Residual sum of squares
Adj. R-squared
Gompertz function
Number of points
Degrees of freedom
International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
in the hype stage and experiencing growth. Figures 10 and11 and Table 6
12 shows the hype cycle curve for cloud computing
function was a polynomial of degree 9 with Adj. R-squared: 0.97438), as calculated by the
Figure 10. Time series of Nikkei articles about cloud computing
shaped curve and S-shaped curve for cloud computing (after data standardization)
shaped curve fitting and polynomial fitting for cloud computing
Logistic function Hype stage Implementation stage
oints 8 6
reedom 5 3
uared 2860.65605 27.91975
quares 14303.28026 83.75924
d 0.99464 0.96986
function Hype stage Implementation stage
oints 8 6
reedom 5 3
, May 2015
10
11 and Table 6
the hype cycle curve for cloud computing (the best-fit
calculated by the
(after data standardization)
Implementation stage
Implementation stage
11. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2
Reduced Chi-squared
Residual sum of squares
Adj. R-squared
Polynomial of degree 9
Number of
Degrees of
Residual
Figure 12. Simulated
5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This study demonstrated a method of
functions. By applying polynomial functions, the current position along the curve
identified. Because of the simplicity and operational
complex simulation technologies,
capture the state of high-tech innovations.
Through the process, this study found some common features among the diffusion patterns of
different high-tech innovations. First,
both the hype stage and the implementation stage
functions in all examined high-tech innovations.
previous study [14], means that the high
point of inflection for both stages
best fit for the combined curve,
for SCM, and 0.97 for cloud computing
roughly by polynomial functions.
In conclusion, it is reasonable to
proposes a process for simulating
that can be used to understand the position along the hype cycle.
noteworthy limitations to this study. First, when examining newspaper articles
implementation stage by using the titles (specifically, titles mentioning organizational changes or
announcing the appointment of managers were taken as indicating the implementation stage).
International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
uared 552.55357 11.79637
quares 2762.76784 35.3891
d 0.99896 0.98726
Polynomial of degree 9
Number of points 25
Degrees of freedom 15
Residual sum of squares 0.20605
Adj. R-squared 0.97438
Simulated hype cycle curve for cloud computing
CONCLUSIONS
a method of simulating Gartner’s hype cycle[1] with
. By applying polynomial functions, the current position along the curve
simplicity and operational ease of this method in comparison with
complex simulation technologies, the proposed method is suggested for use when trying to
tech innovations.
Through the process, this study found some common features among the diffusion patterns of
tech innovations. First, our simulation of S-shaped curves indicated
both the hype stage and the implementation stage Gompertz functions show better fit than logistic
tech innovations. This result, which agrees with results from
means that the high-tech innovation process is not symmetrical around the
for both stages. Second, polynomial functions of degree 9 demonstrated the
with adjusted R-squared values of more than 0.99 for CRM
r cloud computing. This means that hype cycle curves can be simulated
by polynomial functions.
to claim that this study makes the following contributions: (1) it
simulating hype cycle curves, and (2) it shows the mathematica
that can be used to understand the position along the hype cycle. However, t
noteworthy limitations to this study. First, when examining newspaper articles, we identified
sing the titles (specifically, titles mentioning organizational changes or
announcing the appointment of managers were taken as indicating the implementation stage).
, May 2015
11
with mathematical
. By applying polynomial functions, the current position along the curve could be
in comparison with other
when trying to
Through the process, this study found some common features among the diffusion patterns of
indicated that during
Gompertz functions show better fit than logistic
agrees with results from our
ovation process is not symmetrical around the
. Second, polynomial functions of degree 9 demonstrated the
for CRM,0.99
. This means that hype cycle curves can be simulated
makes the following contributions: (1) it
and (2) it shows the mathematical functions
However, there are two
we identified the
sing the titles (specifically, titles mentioning organizational changes or
announcing the appointment of managers were taken as indicating the implementation stage).
12. International Journal of Managing Information Technology (IJMIT) Vol.7, No.2, May 2015
12
Despite this, these organizational changes are not the only indicators that could be used to
confirm the implementation stage. Second, we used only polynomial functions of degrees 5, 7,
and 9. We need to apply polynomials of higher degrees, such as 11, 13, and 15, and examine
other functions that to see whether they are more appropriate. Such extensions are left for future
study.
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