Arctic climate change through the lens of data visualizationZachary Labe
The document discusses climate change in the Arctic through data visualization. It notes that Arctic temperatures are rising more than 3 times faster than the global average. Sea ice extent is declining at a rate of nearly 0.8 million km2 per decade. Future projections show continued sea ice loss and Arctic warming, which could influence weather patterns in mid-latitudes through impacts on jet streams and storm tracks. Improved understanding of these connections and their dependence on factors like the quasi-biennial oscillation could help constrain predictions. Data visualization is presented as an important tool for communicating climate science.
The document profiles Zachary Labe, a climate scientist at Colorado State University who studies Arctic climate change and communicates his research through simple, bold data visualizations. His work focuses on distinguishing climate signals from weather noise, placing current weather events in the context of long-term climate trends. He aims to use diverse voices and real-time climate data to tell stories about climate change impacts and the need for climate resilience and social justice.
How to explain global warming The question of AttributionPazSilviapm
How to explain global warming?
The question of Attribution
You learned about the evidence that proves anthropogenic climate change is
taking place. Now, let’s talk about how we explain the phenomena of global
warming.
Previously, you viewed this figure from the IPCC’s assessment report, showing
various factors that contribute to climate change. The next slide will include
further detail about each forcing component.
This figure is also from the IPCC’s assessment report. LOSU means ‘level of
scientific understanding’. In this figure, two different forcing components are
shown; anthropogenic and natural forcings. It is important to remember that
not only anthropogenic forcings, natural forcings also drive climate change. For
example, glacial/Interglacial cycles we observed from the ice core samples
earlier this semester that recorded atmospheric conditions over last 450,000
years are clearly caused by natural forcings as we, homo sapiens, did not exist
that time!
In this figure, each radiative forcing is associated with a value (watts per square
meter) quantifying how much each forcing contributes to climate change. Some
forcings have a negative number (contribute to cooling), whereas others have a
positive number (contribute to warming). The total net forcing is currently a
positive value. Thus, the climate trend is currently warming.
IPCC report
As shown in the previous figure, natural forcing can change climate. The
dominant energy source to change Earth’s climate, the sun, also varies its
energy emission. This figure shows natural changes in solar irradiance from
1874 to 1988. Solar irradiance is the amount of energy per unit area received
from the Sun. In recent decades, solar activity has been measured by satellites,
while before it was estimated using a proxy variation. Without satellite
observation, energy differences were too small to detect.
Solar irradiance is higher during a period called “solar maximum”, which
appears almost every 11 years. During a solar maximum, interesting features
that appears on the Sun’s surface…
(continue)
Solar luminosity
Sunspot cycle (~11 year period,
~0.1% change in radiation
output)
(continued)
…are sunspots! Sunspots are relatively dark areas on the radiating surface of the
Sun, where intense magnetic activity inhibits convection and cools the
photosphere. Luminosity is the total amount of energy emitted by the Sun.
To summarize, more sunspot appears during a period of solar maximum, when the
Sun presents more intense magnetic activity (therefore higher luminosity).
Although solar irradiance was only recently measured by satellite, sunspots
have been observed for a very long time! The first such recording was made
by Galileo Galilei in the 17th century when he created the first telescope. In
addition, there are well documented historical records that captured solar
activity by Chinese astronomers. All records combined confirm ...
Observations and climate model projections of Arctic climate changeZachary Labe
The document summarizes observations of Arctic climate change and projections from climate models. It finds that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average due to a process known as polar amplification. Satellite data shows sea ice extent and thickness have sharply declined in recent decades. Climate models project further sea ice loss and amplified warming in the Arctic under high emissions scenarios. This could impact weather patterns in mid-latitudes through changes to jet streams and storm tracks. Improved observations and modeling are needed to reduce uncertainty about future impacts.
This document summarizes the sea ice modeling capabilities of the Mercator Ocean 1/4 degree global ocean forecasting system. It describes the sea ice component used, which is the LIM2 sea ice model. An evaluation is presented of the modeled Arctic sea ice extent during 2007, showing reasonable agreement with observations. Interannual variability is also examined through a forced run simulation, which captures the recent observed decline in Arctic sea ice coverage. Ongoing work to improve the sea ice representation at high resolution is mentioned. The system provides operational sea ice forecasts and reanalysis products.
Substantial disagreement continues between modeling studies in attributing midlatitude climate extremes to Arctic sea-ice anomalies. This is a result of uncertainties due to internal variability, nonlinear interactions, model biases, or more likely a combination of these effects. In this study, we use large ensembles from two high-top atmospheric general circulation models (SC-WACCM4 and E3SM) to separate the sea ice-forced signal from atmospheric internal variability (noise). Following protocol for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), each simulation is prescribed with either pre-industrial, present-day, or future levels of sea-ice concentration, which are associated with global warming projections of 2°C. We use 300 ensemble members per simulation to obtain large sample sizes for robust statistics in the context of internal variability.
While an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet is found in boreal winter, the response to future sea-ice loss is small relative to climatology and highly sensitive to the number of ensemble members considered. On average, a sea ice-forced signal in the large-scale circulation cannot be distinguished from atmospheric internal variability in our simulations. A low signal-to-noise ratio is also demonstrated in the stratosphere, where the sign of the polar vortex response can be interpreted differently depending on the ensemble size. However, the local thermodynamic effects are statistically significant with strong surface warming and increases in precipitation found in the vicinity of newly ice-free areas. This warming is generally confined to the Arctic, and there is little response in the midlatitudes. Our results highlight the important role of internal variability in the extratropics and emphasize the need for especially large ensembles (>150-200 members) when assessing the dynamical response to both present-day and future Arctic sea-ice loss. (from https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/367289)
Revisiting projections of Arctic climate change linkagesZachary Labe
16 November 2023…
Department Seminar (Presentation): Revisiting projections of Arctic climate change linkages, Tongji University, Shanghai, China. Remote Presentation.
References:
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2018), Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078158
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083095
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088583
Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir (2021), Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss?
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1
Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2022), Comparison of climate model large ensembles with observations in the Arctic using simple neural networks. Earth and Space Science, DOI: 10.1029/2022EA002348
Arctic climate change through the lens of data visualizationZachary Labe
The document discusses climate change in the Arctic through data visualization. It notes that Arctic temperatures are rising more than 3 times faster than the global average. Sea ice extent is declining at a rate of nearly 0.8 million km2 per decade. Future projections show continued sea ice loss and Arctic warming, which could influence weather patterns in mid-latitudes through impacts on jet streams and storm tracks. Improved understanding of these connections and their dependence on factors like the quasi-biennial oscillation could help constrain predictions. Data visualization is presented as an important tool for communicating climate science.
The document profiles Zachary Labe, a climate scientist at Colorado State University who studies Arctic climate change and communicates his research through simple, bold data visualizations. His work focuses on distinguishing climate signals from weather noise, placing current weather events in the context of long-term climate trends. He aims to use diverse voices and real-time climate data to tell stories about climate change impacts and the need for climate resilience and social justice.
How to explain global warming The question of AttributionPazSilviapm
How to explain global warming?
The question of Attribution
You learned about the evidence that proves anthropogenic climate change is
taking place. Now, let’s talk about how we explain the phenomena of global
warming.
Previously, you viewed this figure from the IPCC’s assessment report, showing
various factors that contribute to climate change. The next slide will include
further detail about each forcing component.
This figure is also from the IPCC’s assessment report. LOSU means ‘level of
scientific understanding’. In this figure, two different forcing components are
shown; anthropogenic and natural forcings. It is important to remember that
not only anthropogenic forcings, natural forcings also drive climate change. For
example, glacial/Interglacial cycles we observed from the ice core samples
earlier this semester that recorded atmospheric conditions over last 450,000
years are clearly caused by natural forcings as we, homo sapiens, did not exist
that time!
In this figure, each radiative forcing is associated with a value (watts per square
meter) quantifying how much each forcing contributes to climate change. Some
forcings have a negative number (contribute to cooling), whereas others have a
positive number (contribute to warming). The total net forcing is currently a
positive value. Thus, the climate trend is currently warming.
IPCC report
As shown in the previous figure, natural forcing can change climate. The
dominant energy source to change Earth’s climate, the sun, also varies its
energy emission. This figure shows natural changes in solar irradiance from
1874 to 1988. Solar irradiance is the amount of energy per unit area received
from the Sun. In recent decades, solar activity has been measured by satellites,
while before it was estimated using a proxy variation. Without satellite
observation, energy differences were too small to detect.
Solar irradiance is higher during a period called “solar maximum”, which
appears almost every 11 years. During a solar maximum, interesting features
that appears on the Sun’s surface…
(continue)
Solar luminosity
Sunspot cycle (~11 year period,
~0.1% change in radiation
output)
(continued)
…are sunspots! Sunspots are relatively dark areas on the radiating surface of the
Sun, where intense magnetic activity inhibits convection and cools the
photosphere. Luminosity is the total amount of energy emitted by the Sun.
To summarize, more sunspot appears during a period of solar maximum, when the
Sun presents more intense magnetic activity (therefore higher luminosity).
Although solar irradiance was only recently measured by satellite, sunspots
have been observed for a very long time! The first such recording was made
by Galileo Galilei in the 17th century when he created the first telescope. In
addition, there are well documented historical records that captured solar
activity by Chinese astronomers. All records combined confirm ...
Observations and climate model projections of Arctic climate changeZachary Labe
The document summarizes observations of Arctic climate change and projections from climate models. It finds that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average due to a process known as polar amplification. Satellite data shows sea ice extent and thickness have sharply declined in recent decades. Climate models project further sea ice loss and amplified warming in the Arctic under high emissions scenarios. This could impact weather patterns in mid-latitudes through changes to jet streams and storm tracks. Improved observations and modeling are needed to reduce uncertainty about future impacts.
This document summarizes the sea ice modeling capabilities of the Mercator Ocean 1/4 degree global ocean forecasting system. It describes the sea ice component used, which is the LIM2 sea ice model. An evaluation is presented of the modeled Arctic sea ice extent during 2007, showing reasonable agreement with observations. Interannual variability is also examined through a forced run simulation, which captures the recent observed decline in Arctic sea ice coverage. Ongoing work to improve the sea ice representation at high resolution is mentioned. The system provides operational sea ice forecasts and reanalysis products.
Substantial disagreement continues between modeling studies in attributing midlatitude climate extremes to Arctic sea-ice anomalies. This is a result of uncertainties due to internal variability, nonlinear interactions, model biases, or more likely a combination of these effects. In this study, we use large ensembles from two high-top atmospheric general circulation models (SC-WACCM4 and E3SM) to separate the sea ice-forced signal from atmospheric internal variability (noise). Following protocol for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), each simulation is prescribed with either pre-industrial, present-day, or future levels of sea-ice concentration, which are associated with global warming projections of 2°C. We use 300 ensemble members per simulation to obtain large sample sizes for robust statistics in the context of internal variability.
While an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet is found in boreal winter, the response to future sea-ice loss is small relative to climatology and highly sensitive to the number of ensemble members considered. On average, a sea ice-forced signal in the large-scale circulation cannot be distinguished from atmospheric internal variability in our simulations. A low signal-to-noise ratio is also demonstrated in the stratosphere, where the sign of the polar vortex response can be interpreted differently depending on the ensemble size. However, the local thermodynamic effects are statistically significant with strong surface warming and increases in precipitation found in the vicinity of newly ice-free areas. This warming is generally confined to the Arctic, and there is little response in the midlatitudes. Our results highlight the important role of internal variability in the extratropics and emphasize the need for especially large ensembles (>150-200 members) when assessing the dynamical response to both present-day and future Arctic sea-ice loss. (from https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/367289)
Revisiting projections of Arctic climate change linkagesZachary Labe
16 November 2023…
Department Seminar (Presentation): Revisiting projections of Arctic climate change linkages, Tongji University, Shanghai, China. Remote Presentation.
References:
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2018), Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078158
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083095
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088583
Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir (2021), Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss?
Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1
Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2022), Comparison of climate model large ensembles with observations in the Arctic using simple neural networks. Earth and Space Science, DOI: 10.1029/2022EA002348
Arctic climate through the lens of data visualizationZachary Labe
15 February 2023…
Rider University, Global Biogeochemistry Class Visit (Presentation): Arctic climate change through the lens of data visualization, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, USA.
References...
Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W. F., Adcroft, A., Bushuk, M., Chen, J. H., Dunne, K. A., ... & Zhao, M. (2020). SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(3), e2019MS001895, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001895
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2019GL083095, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083095
The document discusses recent scientific data from NASA showing that Antarctica has reached its maximum winter ice extent in history. It also discusses data showing that Arctic sea ice levels have remained relatively stable. The author argues this data disproves claims by environmentalists and liberals about global warming causing rising sea levels and melting ice caps. The document goes on to criticize three common arguments made by environmentalists about the causes and impacts of climate change, arguing the data does not support these views.
After a dry summer, precipitation levels increased in recent months but river flows remain lower than 2018. In October, surface water temperatures were slightly above average across Puget Sound. Optimal temperatures for species like anchovies and salmon persisted in some areas. Aerial photos from October 30th show sizable rafts of organic debris in many regions as well as some red-brown algal blooms, though many blooms had dissipated. Green water persisted in parts of South Sound.
Climate change results for North and Central Americaipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report regarding climate change projections for North and Central America. Some common changes across the regions include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense heat waves, and rising sea levels. However, precipitation projections vary by location. Northern areas are expected to receive more winter precipitation while Central America and the Caribbean will likely see decreases. The document also outlines more specific projections for sub-regions, including increased drought and flooding in some areas. An agenda is provided for an event discussing climate impacts in North and Central America.
Communicating Arctic climate change through data-driven storiesZachary Labe
Arctic Science Summit Week 2021 (Session 2: “The 4 Essential Cs - Coordination, Communication, Community, and Collaboration”):
In this presentation, I will discuss the power of sharing Arctic climate change information through accessible and engaging data visualizations. In particular, I will focus on using social media (Twitter) as one tool for communicating science to broad audiences.
The document discusses climate change in the Arctic. It notes that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe, with sea ice extent and thickness declining significantly. Climate models project that Arctic warming and sea ice loss will continue through the 21st century. Improving observations and models can help reduce uncertainties about future climate impacts in the Arctic and how changes may influence remote weather patterns. Action is needed to reduce emissions and limit global temperature rise in order to prevent the worst effects of climate change in the Arctic.
Refining projections of the 'warm Arctic, cold Siberia' pattern in climate mo...Zachary Labe
This document summarizes research on modeling the "warm Arctic, cold Siberia" pattern under climate change. It finds that declining Arctic sea ice, especially sea ice thickness, reinforces warming over the Arctic and cooling over Siberia. The strength of this pattern also depends on the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation. Specifically, declining sea ice leads to a stronger Siberian high pressure system and increased chances of cold extremes in Eurasia during the easterly QBO phase. Future projections using an ensemble of climate models suggest that both declining sea ice and rising greenhouse gases will continue intensifying the warm Arctic-cold Siberia pattern through the 21st century.
The document discusses several topics related to climate change, including natural climate oscillations, urban heat islands, land use changes, temperature proxy records, and measurements of land and ocean temperatures. It questions the reliability of some temperature proxy records and surface temperature measurements, and argues that climate models likely overestimate the warming effects of increased CO2 levels.
The document summarizes recent changes in Arctic sea ice extent based on satellite observations. Summer Arctic sea ice is declining at a rate of 11.6% per decade since 1979, with record low extents in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. Sea ice is also getting younger and thinner. Continued sea ice loss is projected under business as usual warming scenarios, and could eliminate summer sea ice by 2100. This would have significant biological, economic and climate impacts.
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the correlation between increasing average annual temperatures and decreasing permafrost depth across Alaska from 1950-1975 and 2000-2019. Data on average annual temperatures and permafrost depth for the two time periods was compiled from various datasets and analyzed using interpolation methods. Maps produced from the analysis show that average annual temperatures increased and permafrost coverage decreased dramatically between the two periods, retreating from 50% to less than 25% coverage. The data indicates no direct correlation between temperature and permafrost depth up to 300 meters, but permafrost over 300 meters requires average annual temperatures below -6°C.
The Pan-Arctic Impacts of Thinning Sea IceZachary Labe
The Arctic is rapidly changing. However, long-term observations of trends in Arctic sea-ice thickness are still quite limited. In this presentation, Zachary will discuss the different methods (satellite instruments and climate model simulations) of observing sea-ice thickness in order to understand changes in the recent Arctic amplification era. He will also highlight the far-reaching environmental and societal impacts from a thinning Arctic sea-ice cover.
The document discusses evidence that global warming is occurring rather than global cooling. It notes that the Earth's temperature has risen 1.4°F over the past century due to increased greenhouse gases from fossil fuel burning. This is causing Arctic ice to melt 5% per decade and glaciers worldwide to retreat. Rising sea levels and more extreme weather are threatening coastal communities. While some argue for global cooling, statistics show the last decade was the hottest on record and temperatures continue increasing, indicating the planet is warming rather than cooling.
Regional climate: Australia and New Zealandipcc-media
1) Australian and New Zealand land areas have warmed around 1.4°C and 1.1°C respectively between 1910-2020, with temperature changes emerging above natural variability.
2) Heat extremes have increased and cold extremes have decreased across Australasia, and these trends are projected to continue.
3) Heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to increase, as is the frequency and intensity of extreme fire weather.
Reexamining future projections of Arctic climate linkagesZachary Labe
10 May 2024…
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Student/Postdoc Seminar (Presentation): Reexamining future projections of Arctic climate linkages, Princeton University, USA.
References...
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2018), Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss,
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2018GL078158
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2019GL083095
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088583
Labe, Z.M., May 2020: The effects of Arctic sea-ice thickness loss and stratospheric variability on mid-latitude cold spells. University of California, Irvine. Doctoral Dissertation.
Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir (2021), Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss? Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1
Arctic climate through the lens of data visualizationZachary Labe
15 February 2023…
Rider University, Global Biogeochemistry Class Visit (Presentation): Arctic climate change through the lens of data visualization, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, USA.
References...
Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W. F., Adcroft, A., Bushuk, M., Chen, J. H., Dunne, K. A., ... & Zhao, M. (2020). SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(3), e2019MS001895, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001895
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2019GL083095, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083095
The document discusses recent scientific data from NASA showing that Antarctica has reached its maximum winter ice extent in history. It also discusses data showing that Arctic sea ice levels have remained relatively stable. The author argues this data disproves claims by environmentalists and liberals about global warming causing rising sea levels and melting ice caps. The document goes on to criticize three common arguments made by environmentalists about the causes and impacts of climate change, arguing the data does not support these views.
After a dry summer, precipitation levels increased in recent months but river flows remain lower than 2018. In October, surface water temperatures were slightly above average across Puget Sound. Optimal temperatures for species like anchovies and salmon persisted in some areas. Aerial photos from October 30th show sizable rafts of organic debris in many regions as well as some red-brown algal blooms, though many blooms had dissipated. Green water persisted in parts of South Sound.
Climate change results for North and Central Americaipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report regarding climate change projections for North and Central America. Some common changes across the regions include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense heat waves, and rising sea levels. However, precipitation projections vary by location. Northern areas are expected to receive more winter precipitation while Central America and the Caribbean will likely see decreases. The document also outlines more specific projections for sub-regions, including increased drought and flooding in some areas. An agenda is provided for an event discussing climate impacts in North and Central America.
Communicating Arctic climate change through data-driven storiesZachary Labe
Arctic Science Summit Week 2021 (Session 2: “The 4 Essential Cs - Coordination, Communication, Community, and Collaboration”):
In this presentation, I will discuss the power of sharing Arctic climate change information through accessible and engaging data visualizations. In particular, I will focus on using social media (Twitter) as one tool for communicating science to broad audiences.
The document discusses climate change in the Arctic. It notes that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe, with sea ice extent and thickness declining significantly. Climate models project that Arctic warming and sea ice loss will continue through the 21st century. Improving observations and models can help reduce uncertainties about future climate impacts in the Arctic and how changes may influence remote weather patterns. Action is needed to reduce emissions and limit global temperature rise in order to prevent the worst effects of climate change in the Arctic.
Refining projections of the 'warm Arctic, cold Siberia' pattern in climate mo...Zachary Labe
This document summarizes research on modeling the "warm Arctic, cold Siberia" pattern under climate change. It finds that declining Arctic sea ice, especially sea ice thickness, reinforces warming over the Arctic and cooling over Siberia. The strength of this pattern also depends on the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation. Specifically, declining sea ice leads to a stronger Siberian high pressure system and increased chances of cold extremes in Eurasia during the easterly QBO phase. Future projections using an ensemble of climate models suggest that both declining sea ice and rising greenhouse gases will continue intensifying the warm Arctic-cold Siberia pattern through the 21st century.
The document discusses several topics related to climate change, including natural climate oscillations, urban heat islands, land use changes, temperature proxy records, and measurements of land and ocean temperatures. It questions the reliability of some temperature proxy records and surface temperature measurements, and argues that climate models likely overestimate the warming effects of increased CO2 levels.
The document summarizes recent changes in Arctic sea ice extent based on satellite observations. Summer Arctic sea ice is declining at a rate of 11.6% per decade since 1979, with record low extents in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. Sea ice is also getting younger and thinner. Continued sea ice loss is projected under business as usual warming scenarios, and could eliminate summer sea ice by 2100. This would have significant biological, economic and climate impacts.
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the correlation between increasing average annual temperatures and decreasing permafrost depth across Alaska from 1950-1975 and 2000-2019. Data on average annual temperatures and permafrost depth for the two time periods was compiled from various datasets and analyzed using interpolation methods. Maps produced from the analysis show that average annual temperatures increased and permafrost coverage decreased dramatically between the two periods, retreating from 50% to less than 25% coverage. The data indicates no direct correlation between temperature and permafrost depth up to 300 meters, but permafrost over 300 meters requires average annual temperatures below -6°C.
The Pan-Arctic Impacts of Thinning Sea IceZachary Labe
The Arctic is rapidly changing. However, long-term observations of trends in Arctic sea-ice thickness are still quite limited. In this presentation, Zachary will discuss the different methods (satellite instruments and climate model simulations) of observing sea-ice thickness in order to understand changes in the recent Arctic amplification era. He will also highlight the far-reaching environmental and societal impacts from a thinning Arctic sea-ice cover.
The document discusses evidence that global warming is occurring rather than global cooling. It notes that the Earth's temperature has risen 1.4°F over the past century due to increased greenhouse gases from fossil fuel burning. This is causing Arctic ice to melt 5% per decade and glaciers worldwide to retreat. Rising sea levels and more extreme weather are threatening coastal communities. While some argue for global cooling, statistics show the last decade was the hottest on record and temperatures continue increasing, indicating the planet is warming rather than cooling.
Regional climate: Australia and New Zealandipcc-media
1) Australian and New Zealand land areas have warmed around 1.4°C and 1.1°C respectively between 1910-2020, with temperature changes emerging above natural variability.
2) Heat extremes have increased and cold extremes have decreased across Australasia, and these trends are projected to continue.
3) Heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to increase, as is the frequency and intensity of extreme fire weather.
Reexamining future projections of Arctic climate linkagesZachary Labe
10 May 2024…
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Student/Postdoc Seminar (Presentation): Reexamining future projections of Arctic climate linkages, Princeton University, USA.
References...
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2018), Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss,
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2018GL078158
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2019GL083095
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088583
Labe, Z.M., May 2020: The effects of Arctic sea-ice thickness loss and stratospheric variability on mid-latitude cold spells. University of California, Irvine. Doctoral Dissertation.
Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir (2021), Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss? Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1
Techniques and Considerations for Improving Accessibility in Online MediaZachary Labe
3 April 2024…
United States Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (USAPECS) IDEA Training Course (Presentation): Accessibility and disability in online spaces. Remote Presentation.
An intro to explainable AI for polar climate scienceZachary Labe
26 March 2024…
GFDL Polar Climate Interest Group (Presentation): An intro to explainable AI for polar climate science, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ.
References:
Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2022), Comparison of climate model large ensembles with observations in the Arctic using simple neural networks. Earth and Space Science, DOI:10.1029/2022EA002348, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002348
Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2021), Detecting climate signals using explainable AI with single-forcing large ensembles. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, DOI:10.1029/2021MS002464, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021MS002464
Using accessible data to communicate global climate changeZachary Labe
25 March 2024…
Climate Communication Workshop: Learn How To Make Your Research Matter (Keynote Presentation): Using accessible data to communicate global climate change, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA.
Water in a Frozen Arctic: Cross-Disciplinary PerspectivesZachary Labe
14 March 2024…
United States Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (USAPECS) Webinar (Host): Water in a Frozen Arctic: Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives. Remote Panel.
Event Page: https://www.usapecs.org/post/webinar-water-frozen-arctic
Explainable AI approach for evaluating climate models in the ArcticZachary Labe
27 March 2024…
IARPC Collaborations, Modelers’ Community of Practice (Presentation): Explainable AI approach for evaluating climate models in the Arctic. Remote Presentation.
References...
Labe, Z. M., & Barnes, E. A. (2022). Comparison of climate model large ensembles with observations in the Arctic using simple neural networks. Earth and Space Science, 9(7), e2022EA002348, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002348
Explainable neural networks for evaluating patterns of climate change and var...Zachary Labe
12 March 2024…
Sharing Science – North American Webinar, Young Earth System Scientists (YESS) Community (Presentation): Explainable neural networks for evaluating patterns of climate change and variability. Remote Presentation.
References...
Labe, Z.M., E.A. Barnes, and J.W. Hurrell (2023). Identifying the regional emergence of climate patterns in the ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulations. Environmental Research Letters, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/acc81a
Applications of machine learning for climate change and variabilityZachary Labe
23 February 2024…
Department of Environmental Sciences Seminar (Presentation): Applications of machine learning for climate change and variability, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ.
References:
Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2021), Detecting climate signals using explainable AI with single-forcing large ensembles. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, DOI:10.1029/2021MS002464
Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2022), Predicting slowdowns in decadal climate warming trends with explainable neural networks. Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2022GL098173
Labe, Z. M., Johnson, N. C., & Delworth, T. L. (2024). Changes in United States summer temperatures revealed by explainable neural networks. Earth's Future, DOI:10.1029/2023EF003981
data-driven approach to identifying key regions of change associated with fut...Zachary Labe
Labe, Z.M., T.L. Delworth, N.C. Johnson, and W.F. Cooke. A data-driven approach to identifying key regions of change associated with future climate scenarios, 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science, Baltimore, MD (Jan 2024). https://ams.confex.com/ams/104ANNUAL/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/431300
Distinguishing the regional emergence of United States summer temperatures be...Zachary Labe
Labe, Z.M., N.C. Johnson, and T.L. Delworth. Distinguishing the regional emergence of United States summer temperatures between observations and climate model large ensembles, 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science, Baltimore, MD (Jan 2024). https://ams.confex.com/ams/104ANNUAL/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/431288
Researching and Communicating Our Changing ClimateZachary Labe
Zachary Labe is a postdoc researcher at NOAA GFDL and Princeton University who studies climate variability and change. His research uses tools like artificial intelligence and climate models to disentangle the signal of climate change from natural weather noise. He conducts field work including Arctic expeditions and uses supercomputers to run complex climate models that generate huge amounts of data.
Visualizing climate change through dataZachary Labe
18 November 2023…
NJ State Museum Planetarium (Presentation): Visualizing climate change through data, Trenton, NJ.
References...
Eischeid, J.K., M.P. Hoerling, X.-W. Quan, A. Kumar, J. Barsugli, Z.M. Labe, K.E. Kunkel, C.J. Schreck III, D.R. Easterling, T. Zhang, J. Uehling, and X. Zhang (2023). Why has the summertime central U.S. warming hole not disappeared? Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0716.1, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/20/JCLI-D-22-0716.1.xml
Using explainable machine learning to evaluate climate change projectionsZachary Labe
5 October 2023…
Atmosphere and Ocean Climate Dynamics Seminar (Presentation): Using explainable machine learning to evaluate climate change projections, Yale University, New Haven, CT. Remote Presentation.
References...
Labe, Z.M., E.A. Barnes, and J.W. Hurrell (2023). Identifying the regional emergence of climate patterns in the ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulations. Environmental Research Letters, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/acc81a, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acc81a
Contrasting polar climate change in the past, present, and futureZachary Labe
28 September 2023…
Guest lecture for “Observing and Modeling Climate Change (EES 3506/5506)” (Presentation): Contrasting polar climate change in the past, present, and future, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA. Remote Presentation.
Climate change extremes by season in the United StatesZachary Labe
11 September 2023…
Hershey Horticulture Society (Presentation): Climate change extremes by season in the United States, Hershey, PA, USA.
References...
Eischeid, J.K., M.P. Hoerling, X.-W. Quan, A. Kumar, J. Barsugli, Z.M. Labe, K.E. Kunkel, C.J. Schreck III, D.R. Easterling, T. Zhang, J. Uehling, and X. Zhang (2023). Why has the summertime central U.S. warming hole not disappeared? Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0716.1
Labe, Z.M., T.R. Ault, and R. Zurita-Milla (2016), Identifying Anomalously Early Spring Onsets in the CESM Large Ensemble Project, R. Clim Dyn, DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3313-2
Labe, Z.M., N.C. Johnson, and T.L Delworth (2023). Changes in United States summer temperatures revealed by explainable neural networks. Preprint. DOI: 10.22541/essoar.168987129.98069596/v1
Guest Lecture: Our changing Arctic in the past and futureZachary Labe
22 August 2023…
Guest lecture for “Introduction to Global Climate Change (ESS 15)” (Invited): Our changing Arctic in the past and future, University of California, Irvine, CA. Remote Presentation.
References...
Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W. F., Adcroft, A., Bushuk, M., Chen, J. H., Dunne, K. A., ... & Zhao, M. (2020). SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(3), e2019MS001895, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001895
Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2022), Comparison of climate model large ensembles with observations in the Arctic using simple neural networks. Earth and Space Science, DOI:10.1029/2022EA002348, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002348
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088583, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL088583
Monitoring indicators of climate change through data-driven visualizationZachary Labe
19 June 2023…
La Uni Climática - IV Edition (Presentation): Monitoring indicators of climate change through data-driven visualization. Remote Presentation.
hematic appreciation test is a psychological assessment tool used to measure an individual's appreciation and understanding of specific themes or topics. This test helps to evaluate an individual's ability to connect different ideas and concepts within a given theme, as well as their overall comprehension and interpretation skills. The results of the test can provide valuable insights into an individual's cognitive abilities, creativity, and critical thinking skills
ESPP presentation to EU Waste Water Network, 4th June 2024 “EU policies driving nutrient removal and recycling
and the revised UWWTD (Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive)”
Unlocking the mysteries of reproduction: Exploring fecundity and gonadosomati...AbdullaAlAsif1
The pygmy halfbeak Dermogenys colletei, is known for its viviparous nature, this presents an intriguing case of relatively low fecundity, raising questions about potential compensatory reproductive strategies employed by this species. Our study delves into the examination of fecundity and the Gonadosomatic Index (GSI) in the Pygmy Halfbeak, D. colletei (Meisner, 2001), an intriguing viviparous fish indigenous to Sarawak, Borneo. We hypothesize that the Pygmy halfbeak, D. colletei, may exhibit unique reproductive adaptations to offset its low fecundity, thus enhancing its survival and fitness. To address this, we conducted a comprehensive study utilizing 28 mature female specimens of D. colletei, carefully measuring fecundity and GSI to shed light on the reproductive adaptations of this species. Our findings reveal that D. colletei indeed exhibits low fecundity, with a mean of 16.76 ± 2.01, and a mean GSI of 12.83 ± 1.27, providing crucial insights into the reproductive mechanisms at play in this species. These results underscore the existence of unique reproductive strategies in D. colletei, enabling its adaptation and persistence in Borneo's diverse aquatic ecosystems, and call for further ecological research to elucidate these mechanisms. This study lends to a better understanding of viviparous fish in Borneo and contributes to the broader field of aquatic ecology, enhancing our knowledge of species adaptations to unique ecological challenges.
When I was asked to give a companion lecture in support of ‘The Philosophy of Science’ (https://shorturl.at/4pUXz) I decided not to walk through the detail of the many methodologies in order of use. Instead, I chose to employ a long standing, and ongoing, scientific development as an exemplar. And so, I chose the ever evolving story of Thermodynamics as a scientific investigation at its best.
Conducted over a period of >200 years, Thermodynamics R&D, and application, benefitted from the highest levels of professionalism, collaboration, and technical thoroughness. New layers of application, methodology, and practice were made possible by the progressive advance of technology. In turn, this has seen measurement and modelling accuracy continually improved at a micro and macro level.
Perhaps most importantly, Thermodynamics rapidly became a primary tool in the advance of applied science/engineering/technology, spanning micro-tech, to aerospace and cosmology. I can think of no better a story to illustrate the breadth of scientific methodologies and applications at their best.
Remote Sensing and Computational, Evolutionary, Supercomputing, and Intellige...University of Maribor
Slides from talk:
Aleš Zamuda: Remote Sensing and Computational, Evolutionary, Supercomputing, and Intelligent Systems.
11th International Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering (IcETRAN), Niš, 3-6 June 2024
Inter-Society Networking Panel GRSS/MTT-S/CIS Panel Session: Promoting Connection and Cooperation
https://www.etran.rs/2024/en/home-english/
Travis Hills' Endeavors in Minnesota: Fostering Environmental and Economic Pr...Travis Hills MN
Travis Hills of Minnesota developed a method to convert waste into high-value dry fertilizer, significantly enriching soil quality. By providing farmers with a valuable resource derived from waste, Travis Hills helps enhance farm profitability while promoting environmental stewardship. Travis Hills' sustainable practices lead to cost savings and increased revenue for farmers by improving resource efficiency and reducing waste.
The binding of cosmological structures by massless topological defectsSérgio Sacani
Assuming spherical symmetry and weak field, it is shown that if one solves the Poisson equation or the Einstein field
equations sourced by a topological defect, i.e. a singularity of a very specific form, the result is a localized gravitational
field capable of driving flat rotation (i.e. Keplerian circular orbits at a constant speed for all radii) of test masses on a thin
spherical shell without any underlying mass. Moreover, a large-scale structure which exploits this solution by assembling
concentrically a number of such topological defects can establish a flat stellar or galactic rotation curve, and can also deflect
light in the same manner as an equipotential (isothermal) sphere. Thus, the need for dark matter or modified gravity theory is
mitigated, at least in part.
Authoring a personal GPT for your research and practice: How we created the Q...Leonel Morgado
Thematic analysis in qualitative research is a time-consuming and systematic task, typically done using teams. Team members must ground their activities on common understandings of the major concepts underlying the thematic analysis, and define criteria for its development. However, conceptual misunderstandings, equivocations, and lack of adherence to criteria are challenges to the quality and speed of this process. Given the distributed and uncertain nature of this process, we wondered if the tasks in thematic analysis could be supported by readily available artificial intelligence chatbots. Our early efforts point to potential benefits: not just saving time in the coding process but better adherence to criteria and grounding, by increasing triangulation between humans and artificial intelligence. This tutorial will provide a description and demonstration of the process we followed, as two academic researchers, to develop a custom ChatGPT to assist with qualitative coding in the thematic data analysis process of immersive learning accounts in a survey of the academic literature: QUAL-E Immersive Learning Thematic Analysis Helper. In the hands-on time, participants will try out QUAL-E and develop their ideas for their own qualitative coding ChatGPT. Participants that have the paid ChatGPT Plus subscription can create a draft of their assistants. The organizers will provide course materials and slide deck that participants will be able to utilize to continue development of their custom GPT. The paid subscription to ChatGPT Plus is not required to participate in this workshop, just for trying out personal GPTs during it.
Current Ms word generated power point presentation covers major details about the micronuclei test. It's significance and assays to conduct it. It is used to detect the micronuclei formation inside the cells of nearly every multicellular organism. It's formation takes place during chromosomal sepration at metaphase.
1. Zachary M. Labe; Postdoc at Princeton University & NOAA GFDL
https://zacklabe.com/ @ZLabe
Climate Extremes: Heatwaves, Changes in Ice, Drought, Floods
-Sea Ice Anomalies-
2. Daily Arctic temperature in 2018
(red) compared to every year since
1958 in the month of February.
Average is shown by the white line.
THE CLIMATE IS
CHANGING
IN REAL-TIME.
Considering a global view of temperatures relative to
average – placing weather in the context of climate
3. Daily Arctic temperature in 2018
(red) compared to every year since
1958 in the month of February.
Average is shown by the white line.
THE ARCTIC IS
CHANGING
IN REAL-TIME.
Daily Arctic temperature in 2018 (red) compared
to every year since 1958 in the month of February.
Average is shown by the white line.
20. Accessibility in
Visualization Storytelling
No jargon
Tell a story
Alternative text
Color contrast ratio
Label data directly
Avoid flashing GIFs
Include figure titles
Avoid data overlays
Provide data references
22. Sharing Arctic climate change and sea ice extremes in real-time.
Supporting Arctic climate resilience and environmental justice.
Identifying sea ice impacts with data-driven visualizations.
Using a diversity of voices to communicate.
Zachary Labe | 13 June 2023 | zachary.labe@noaa.gov
@ZLabe
https://zacklabe.com/
Questions!