Reexamining future projections of Arctic climate linkages
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10 May 2024… Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Student/Postdoc Seminar (Presentation): Reexamining future projections of Arctic climate linkages, Princeton University, USA. References... Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2018), Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2018GL078158 Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2019GL083095 Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088583 Labe, Z.M., May 2020: The effects of Arctic sea-ice thickness loss and stratospheric variability on mid-latitude cold spells. University of California, Irvine. Doctoral Dissertation. Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir (2021), Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss? Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1
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Reexamining future projections of Arctic climate linkages
- 1. Reexamining future projections of Arctic climate linkages Zachary M. Labe Postdoc in Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability & Predictability Division at NOAA GFDL and AOS at Princeton University with… Gudrun Magnusdottir Yannick Peings 10 May 2024; Princeton University AOS Student/Postdoc Seminar
- 5. The Arctic is warming more than 3 times faster than the global average!
- 6. The Arctic is warming more than 3 times faster than the global average!
- 12. [Newson, 1973; Nature] “…great warming of the lower layers of the troposphere over the Arctic basin... In fact, there is a lowering of mid-latitude continental temperatures near the surface”
- 13. Vihma, 2014
- 14. Cohen et al. 2014
- 15. Barnes and Screen, 2015
- 16. Overland et al. 2016
- 17. Francis, 2017
- 18. Francis et al. 2017
- 19. Screen et al. 2018
- 20. CLIVAR Working Group, 2018
- 21. Screen et al. 2018
- 22. Vavrus, 2018
- 23. Coumou et al. 2018
- 24. Smith et al. 2019
- 25. Cohen et al. 2020
- 26. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss Polar Vortex [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences]
- 27. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss Polar Vortex [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences]
- 28. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss Polar Vortex [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences]
- 29. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss Polar Vortex [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences]
- 30. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss Polar Vortex [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences]
- 31. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 36. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 37. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 38. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 39. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
- 40. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017 Turbulent heat fluxes [ SIC ]
- 41. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017 Turbulent heat fluxes [ SIC + SIT ]
- 42. Labe, Zachary & National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds). Last modified 2023- 08-22 "The Climate Data Guide: Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS).” Retrieved from https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/pan-arctic-ice- ocean-modeling-and-assimilation-system-piomas on 2024-04-04.
- 43. WACCM4 Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 – Specified Chemistry “high top” chemistry-climate atmosphere model Physical parameterizations from CAM4 • 66 vertical levels – extending to 5 x 10-6 hPa (140 km) • 1.9° latitude x 2.5° longitude • QBO prescribed from radiosonde observations • Improved representation of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events • fixed radiative forcings from year 2000
- 44. Sea-Ice Thickness LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 45. Sea-Ice Concentration LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 46. Future Arctic How does sea-ice thickness decline influence the large- scale atmospheric response? Significant thermodynamic response over Arctic Ocean Poleward weakening of jet LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 47. Future Arctic Significant thermodynamic response over Arctic Ocean Poleward weakening of jet LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL How does sea-ice thickness decline influence the large- scale atmospheric response?
- 48. LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 49. Loss of sea-ice thickness reinforces large-scale response LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL + =
- 51. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments
- 52. Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss
- 53. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments Future (2051-2080) Historical (1975-2005)
- 54. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments Future (2051-2080) Historical (1975-2005)
- 55. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Easterly (QBO-E) Westerly (QBO-W)
- 56. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Modulation by QBO Sea ice experiments Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Easterly (QBO-E) Westerly (QBO-W)
- 57. Assess the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss Sea ice experiments Composite response by QBO phase (~67 years) Modulation by QBO Surface (thermodynamic) Troposphere/Stratosphere
- 61. PLUMB FLUX LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
- 62. PLUMB FLUX LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
- 63. PLUMB FLUX QBO-E at 150 hPa Anomalous WAFz over Siberia LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
- 64. COLD EXTREMES LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
- 65. MOTIVATION ARCTIC SEA ICE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER Sea-ice thickness variability is important for reinforcing the atmospheric response Strength of Siberian High closely related to Eurasia cold spells QBO can modulate teleconnections due to Arctic sea-ice loss
- 66. MOTIVATION ARCTIC SEA ICE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER Sea-ice thickness variability is important for reinforcing the atmospheric response Strength of Siberian High closely related to Eurasia cold spells QBO can modulate teleconnections due to Arctic sea-ice loss
- 67. MOTIVATION ARCTIC SEA ICE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER Sea-ice thickness variability is important for reinforcing the atmospheric response Strength of Siberian High closely related to Eurasia cold spells QBO can modulate teleconnections due to Arctic sea-ice loss
- 71. WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF SEA-ICE LOSS RELATIVE TO ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION?
- 72. OBSERVATIONS
- 73. Surface Troposphere 1980-2023 – Temperature (°C) trends per decade – ERA5 Mid-latitudes Arctic 200 hPa 500 hPa 1000 hPa Adapted from: Labe, Z., Peings, Y., & Magnusdottir, G. (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088583
- 74. Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project [Smith et al., 2018; GCMD] Model: SC-WACCM4 Model: E3SM Setup: Constant SST Setup: Sea ice change Forcing(s): 2°C Forcing(s): Present Forcing(s): Pre-indust. Ensembles: 300 “Response to sea ice”
- 75. Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project [Smith et al., 2018; GCMD] Model: SC-WACCM4 Model: E3SM Setup: Constant SST Setup: Sea ice change Forcing(s): 2°C Forcing(s): Present Forcing(s): Pre-indust. Ensembles: 300 “Response to sea ice”
- 76. Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project [Smith et al., 2018; GCMD] Model: SC-WACCM4 Model: E3SM Setup: Constant SST Setup: Sea ice change Forcing(s): 2°C Forcing(s): Present Forcing(s): Pre-indust. Ensembles: 300 “Response to sea ice”
- 77. AA-2030 AA-2060 AA-2090 • 2020-2039 Arctic Amplification Arctic Amplification Experiments RCP8.5 Forcing – LENS Peings et al. 2019, GRL • 2050-2069 Arctic Amplification • 2080-2099 Arctic Amplification
- 78. Arctic 45°N Arctic 45°N Arctic 45°N Sea-ice loss Arctic amplification LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 79. ΔSEA LEVEL PRESSURE Arctic amplification LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 80. ΔSEA LEVEL PRESSURE Arctic sea-ice loss LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 83. Arctic amplification > sea-ice loss
- 84. Arctic amplification > sea-ice loss What about internal variability?
- 85. 1-100 101-200 201-300 RESPONSE TO SEA-ICE FORCING AT 2°C OF GLOBAL WARMING Coupled ocean-atmosphere, high-top model (SC-WACCM4) 14-month simulations Initial-condition large ensembles (300 members) Response to Arctic sea-ice forcing at 2°C of global warming SURFACE RESPONSE PEINGS ET AL. 2021, JCLI
- 86. 1-100 101-200 201-300 RESPONSE TO SEA-ICE FORCING AT 2°C OF GLOBAL WARMING IN BOREAL WINTER Ensemble #
- 87. 1-100 101-200 201-300 Ensemble # RESPONSE TO SEA-ICE FORCING AT 2°C OF GLOBAL WARMING IN BOREAL WINTER
- 88. 1-100 101-200 201-300 Ensemble # RESPONSE TO SEA-ICE FORCING AT 2°C OF GLOBAL WARMING IN BOREAL WINTER
- 89. 1-100 101-200 201-300 Coupled ocean-atmosphere, high-top model (SC-WACCM4) 14-month simulations Initial-condition large ensembles (300 members) Response to Arctic sea-ice forcing at 2°C of global warming STRATOSPHERIC RESPONSE PEINGS ET AL. 2021, JCLI
- 90. 1-100 101-200 201-300 POLAR VORTEX SHIFT Ensemble #
- 91. 1-100 101-200 201-300 POLAR VORTEX WEAKENING Ensemble #
- 92. 1-100 101-200 201-300 NO CHANGE Ensemble #
- 93. ∆SLP ∆Z50 How many ensembles? PEINGS ET AL. 2021, JCLI
- 94. EDDY-DRIVEN JET NONE SIGNAL! PEINGS ET AL. 2021, JCLI
- 95. NEAR-SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE NONE SIGNAL! PEINGS ET AL. 2021, JCLI
- 97. Atmospheric response sensitive to changes in Arctic sea-ice thickness variability and background state (QBO) Role of sea ice is small relative to Arctic amplification QUESTIONS! Zachary Labe zachary.labe@noaa.gov 10 May 2024 – AOS Princeton University Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2018), Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078158 Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083095 Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088583 Labe, Z.M., May 2020: The effects of Arctic sea-ice thickness loss and stratospheric variability on mid-latitude cold spells. University of California, Irvine. Doctoral Dissertation. Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir (2021), Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss? Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1 Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2022), Comparison of climate model large ensembles with observations in the Arctic using simple neural networks. Earth and Space Science, DOI: 10.1029/2022EA002348