Contrasting polar climate change in the past, present, and future
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28 September 2023… Guest lecture for “Observing and Modeling Climate Change (EES 3506/5506)” (Presentation): Contrasting polar climate change in the past, present, and future, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA. Remote Presentation.
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Contrasting polar climate change in the past, present, and future
- 1. Contrasting polar climate change in the past, present, and future @ZLabe Zachary Labe Postdoc at Princeton/GFDL 28 September 2023 Temple University: EES 3506/5506 Observing & Modeling Climate Change
- 2. RESEARCHER Climate signal vs. weather noise @ZLabe COMMUNICATOR RESEARCHER Arctic climate change STORYTELLER Simple, bold data visualization ZACHARY LABE Climate Scientist at Princeton University & NOAA GFDL zachary.labe@noaa.gov https://zacklabe.com/
- 3. The Arctic is warming more than 3 times faster than the global average!
- 4. The Arctic is warming more than 3 times faster than the global average!
- 8. The Arctic.
- 9. The Arctic.
- 14. Polar Amplification: acceleration of warming in high latitudes relative to the rest of the globe
- 16. Observing ice.
- 17. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 18. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 19. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 22. LABE ET AL. 2018, JCLI
- 25. The Antarctic.
- 32. [Li et al. 2021]
- 33. [Li et al. 2021]
- 34. [Li et al. 2021]
- 35. [Roach et al. 2020]
- 36. [IPCC AR6 WG1]
- 41. Sea is rising.
- 42. Modeling vs. Field Work
- 43. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
- 46. Snow pits
- 48. 7 Feb. 2010
- 51. Vihma, 2014
- 52. Cohen et al. 2014
- 53. Barnes and Screen, 2015
- 54. Overland et al. 2016
- 55. Francis, 2017
- 56. Francis et al. 2017
- 57. Screen et al. 2018
- 58. CLIVAR Working Group, 2018
- 59. Screen et al. 2018
- 60. Vavrus, 2018
- 61. Coumou et al. 2018
- 62. Smith et al. 2019
- 63. Cohen et al. 2020
- 68. Why? What is the perturbation?
- 69. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
- 70. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017 Turbulent heat fluxes [ SIC ]
- 71. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017 Turbulent heat fluxes [ SIC + SIT ]
- 72. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 73. WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF SEA-ICE LOSS RELATIVE TO ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION?
- 75. Looking ahead.
- 76. October-November – Relative to the years of 1951-1980 Our planet without change…
- 79. Observed Arctic temperatures from 1950 to 2021 Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 80. Simulated historical Arctic temperatures from 1930 to 2014 using a climate model Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 81. Simulated Arctic temperatures from 1930 to 2100 using a climate model WITHOUT human- caused climate change Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 82. What influences of climate change do you see on temperatures in the Arctic? Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 83. Projected future Arctic temperatures from 2015 to 2100 using a climate model with increases in fossil fuel development Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 84. Projected future Arctic temperatures from 2015 to 2100 using a climate model with moderate progress in mitigation and other sustainability goals Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 85. Projected future Arctic temperatures from 2015 to 2100 using a climate model with a rapid reduction in current emissions globally Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 90. MAP PLOTS
- 91. YIKES!
- 92. YIKES – FONT IS BLEH!
- 93. YIKES – COLOR!
- 94. MAP PROJECTION!
- 95. :)
- 97. cmap = ‘jet’
- 99. 2004!
- 109. Crameri, F. (2018). Scientific colour maps. Zenodo. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1243862 Crameri, F. (2018), Geodynamic diagnostics, scientific visualisation and StagLab 3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2541- 2562, doi:1 0.5194/gmd-11-2541-2018 Crameri, F., G.E. Shephard, and P.J. Heron (2020), The misuse of colour in science communication, Nature Communications, 11, 5444. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19160-7
- 110. Crameri, F. (2018). Scientific colour maps. Zenodo. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1243862 Crameri, F. (2018), Geodynamic diagnostics, scientific visualisation and StagLab 3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2541-2562, doi:1 0.5194/gmd-11- 2541-2018 Crameri, F., G.E. Shephard, and P.J. Heron (2020), The misuse of colour in science communication, Nature Communications, 11, 5444. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19160-7 Palettable: Color palettes for Python
- 113. OTHER OPTIONS THYNG ET AL. 2016; OCEANOGRAPHY
- 114. CMOCEAN THYNG ET AL. 2016; OCEANOGRAPHY
- 115. CMASHER “Scientific colormaps for making accessible, informative and cmashing plots”
- 116. Adapted from Ed Hawkins at betterfigures.org
- 118. Changing font styles
- 119. 1. Seaborn. 2. Plotly. 3. ggplot. 4. Matplotlib v3. RESOURCES
- 120. 1. https://betterfigures.org/ 2. https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/ 3. http://colorbrewer2.org/ RESOURCES
- 126. ACCESSIBILITY No jargon Tell a story Alternative text Color contrast ratio Label data directly Avoid flashing GIFs Include figure titles Avoid data overlays Provide data references
- 129. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS
- 130. 2016 RIO OLYMPICS OPENING CEREMONY
- 132. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS
- 133. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS https://showyourstripes.info/
- 134. DATA VISUALIZATION IS STORY-TELLING. Arctic temperature anomalies from 1950 to 2021
- 135. DON’T BE SUCH A SCIENTIST WE ARE DATA SCIENTISTS ART BY JILL PELTO
- 136. Landscape of Change uses data about sea level rise, glacier volume decline, increasing global temperatures, and the increasing use of fossil fuels. These data lines compose a landscape shaped by the changing climate, a world in which we are now living. Jill Pelto|http://www.jillpelto.com/landscape-of-change “ ”
- 137. THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING IN REAL-TIME. Considering a global view of temperatures relative to average – placing weather in the context of climate
- 138. THE ARCTIC IS CHANGING IN REAL-TIME. Daily Arctic temperature in 2018 (red) compared to every year since 1958 in the month of February. Average is shown by the white line.
- 139. THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO COMMUNICATE
- 141. 2016 Average
- 142. [International Arctic Research Center [IARC; University of Alaska, Fairbanks] Start a conversation!
- 143. Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016 We need scientists. We need educators. We need innovators. We need communicators.
- 144. KEY POINTS Climate change effects have already emerged in the Arctic. Improvements to observations and models will reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. We can still prevent the worst of the impacts in the Arctic. Zachary Labe, PhD zachary.labe@noaa.gov @ZLabe https://zacklabe.com/