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Visualizing climate change through data

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Zachary Labe
Zachary Labe

18 November 2023… NJ State Museum Planetarium (Presentation): Visualizing climate change through data, Trenton, NJ. References... Eischeid, J.K., M.P. Hoerling, X.-W. Quan, A. Kumar, J. Barsugli, Z.M. Labe, K.E. Kunkel, C.J. Schreck III, D.R. Easterling, T. Zhang, J. Uehling, and X. Zhang (2023). Why has the summertime central U.S. warming hole not disappeared? Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0716.1, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/20/JCLI-D-22-0716.1.xml

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Visualizing climate change through data Zachary M. Labe, PhD Climate Scientist at NOAA GFDL & Princeton University zachary.labe@noaa.gov New Jersey State Museum’s Planetarium – 18 November 2023
NASA/GISS/GISTEMPv4
NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILIITY
Temperature
Temperature Time (Years) Temperature
Temperature Time (Years) Temperature Trend Trend
Temperature Average
Temperature Average
Temperature Anomaly Below Average
Temperature Anomaly Above Average
Internal (Natural) Variability No climate change
Climate Change
Climate (Forced) Change Except it is probably not linear…
Climate (Forced) Change Internal Variability
Climate (Forced) Change Internal Variability El Niño La Niña Volcano Negative AMO Positive PDO Positive AMO
Climate (Forced) Change Future change
1820s
1856
1856
1912 https://theconversation.com/for-110-years-climate-change-has- been-in-the-news-are-we-finally-ready-to-listen-188646
https://www.nps.gov/im/ncpn/climate.htm
https://www.nps.gov/im/ncpn/climate.htm
1938
1967
Consistent Spatial Warming Observations Model (CO 2 )
Adapted from: Kotamarthi, R., Hayhoe, K., Mearns, L., Wuebbles, D., Jacobs, J., & Jurado, J. (2021). Global Climate Models. In Downscaling Techniques for High-Resolution Climate Projections: From Global Change to Local Impacts (pp. 19-39). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781108601269.003 CLIMATE MODELS Horizontal Grid Vertical Levels Past/Present/Future Fully-Coupled System 20-40 Petabytes of data
https://www.ornl.gov/news/ornl-noaa-launch-new-supercomputer-climate-science-research Home Laptop – 2,000,000,000 instructions per second Supercomputer – 5,000,000,000,000,000 instructions per second
https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work/
Observed Arctic temperatures from 1950 to 2021 Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
Simulated historical Arctic temperatures from 1930 to 2014 using a climate model Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
Simulated Arctic temperatures from 1930 to 2100 using a climate model WITHOUT human- caused climate change Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
Projected future Arctic temperatures from 2015 to 2100 using a climate model with increases in fossil fuel development Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
Projected future Arctic temperatures from 2015 to 2100 using a climate model with moderate progress in mitigation and other sustainability goals Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
Projected future Arctic temperatures from 2015 to 2100 using a climate model with a rapid reduction in current emissions globally Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
Temperature anomalies [ °C ] relative to 1981-2010 Real-world observations Climate model data from GFDL United States – Summer
Temperature anomalies [ °C ] relative to 1981-2010 Real-world observations Climate model data from GFDL United States – Summer 1920 2020 Dust Bowl – July 1936 Mt. Pinatubo 2022
George E. Marsh Album/NOAA "Houses were shut tight, and cloth wedged around doors and windows, but the dust came in so thinly that it could not be seen in the air, and it settled like pollen on the chairs and tables, on the dishes.” – Grapes of Wrath
https://www.weather.gov/ddc/BlackSunday1935 “The onrushing cloud, the darkness, and the thick, choking dirt, made this storm one of terror and the worst, while it lasted, ever known here.”
Probability of Dust Bowl-like temperatures occurring in the future
https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/nj/
https://climatecheck.com/pennsylvania
https://climatecheck.com/newjersey #5 #9 #23 #24 #30
https://climatecheck.com/newjersey
https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/nj/
http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/
http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/
https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/nj/
https://dep.nj.gov/climatechange/science/
https://dep.nj.gov/climatechange/science/
2031 2040 Rapid Mitigation Rapid Mitigation
KEY POINTS Climate change effects have already emerged in New Jersey. Supporting improvements to observations and climate models will reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. We can still prevent the worst of the impacts globally. Zachary Labe zachary.labe@noaa.gov @ZLabe https://zacklabe.com/

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