2. An 8-5 mark in Week 2 brings me to 16-12, +$280 as we
enter Week 3. There are few marquee games this week,
but winning wagers on low-profile games spends just as
well as prime-time dollars. All wagers at -110 odds
unless otherwise noted. Visit SB Nation odds partner
OddsShark for updated lines throughout each game
week.
3. Houston +17.5 at BYU: Houston almost got dismantled by
UTSA due to turnovers, and turnovers don't always
translate. Houston can throw as well. I like BYU as a
team, but they're likely overrated due to the Texas win.
Toledo at Cincinnati -11: Cincinnati has had plenty of time
to prep for this game, and Toledo just lost its starting QB
to an ACL tear. Tommy Tuberville's Bearcats will play
solid defense against a Rockets team that missed its
chance to beat a team from a major conference.
4. Tennessee at Oklahoma -20.5: Norman, Oklahoma is an
extremely tough place to play, with Bob Stoops losing at
home only five times in his career. The Vols are young,
and Oklahoma -- a squad that looks to be one of the best
in the country -- should blow their doors off and win by
five touchdowns.
UCLA -7 at Texas AND Under 50.5: I've correctly wagered
against UCLA twice in as many weeks, but this is an
opportunity for the Bruins to wake up a bit and get
healthy against a lackluster team. UCLA is overrated and
is not a national title contender in my opinion, but Texas
is just flat out bad.
5. s
Indiana -7 at Bowling Green: This was much, much better
value later in the week, as the line has shifted by a full 10
points since it opened up, but I'd probably bet as long as
it remains in single digits. Bowling Green is dealing with
injuries.
Arkansas +2 at Texas Tech: Texas Tech is overrated
because of its fun offense and hip coach. Its run defense
is atrocious, and running the ball is something Arkansas
does very well.
6. Kentucky at Florida Under 51: Kentucky has some decent
pass rushers and a secondary with improved
fundamentals, while Florida is missing left tackle D.J.
Humphries. The Gators also have Alabama on deck, and
probably won't be pulling out a lot of new offensive tricks
in this one.
Arkansas State at Miami Under 54: Arkansas State runs a
lot of plays, but not very efficiently. And they also have
some injury concerns -- all of which are on offense. The
chance for thunderstorms also adds to the wager.
Miami's defense is legitimately improved, as well.
7. West Virginia at Maryland -3: Maryland won last weekend
despite being minus-five in the turnover margin. That
close score thanks to the somewhat random nature of
turnovers has depressed this line a bit.
Penn State at Rutgers +3.5: The Knights now appear
competent on offense, and this game means a lot more
to them than it does the Nittany Lions. Penn State cannot
run the football at all through two games.
Wake Forest at Utah State -14 AND Under 44: Wake
Forest has some serious issues on the offensive line and
Utah State is in a nice bounce-back spot here after its
loss to Tennessee.
8. Arizona State at Colorado +16: Arizona State has a
suspect defense and is playing its second consecutive
road game at altitude. I don't see the Sun Devils getting
enough stops to run away and hide.
Iowa State at Iowa -10: Money has come in on the
Cyclones all week, but they are overrated now, due to
the close score against the Wildcats of Kansas State.
Iowa does have some injury issues, but the Hawkeyes
will get it done.
9. Thoughts on games and futures.
Georgia at South Carolina +6: I want to take South
Carolina, but I need 7.5 or more points to do so, and I
just cannot pull the trigger on anything less. South
Carolina's defensive issues are real, but Georgia has not
found much success in Columbia of late.
10. Several of my season win wagers this week could take big
steps. Syracuse (Under 5.5 wins) is favored by less than
a touchdown at Central Michigan, while Louisville (Over 8
wins) is the same at Virginia. West Virginia (Under 4.5
wins) plays Maryland (Over 6.5 wins), while Texas Tech
(Under 6.5 wins) hosts Arkansas. If Iowa isn't going to
cover my wager against Iowa State, I'd prefer the
Hawkeyes lose outright, as I have Under 8.5 wins for the
year, and Missouri (Over 7.5 wins) holding serve over
UCF and Virginia Tech (Over 8 wins) over East Carolina
would also be appreciated.