Funded by
EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK II
Join us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net
Contact us: contact@eugcc-cleanergy.net
Dimitrios Angelopoulos & Dimitrios Kanellopoulos
Funded by
Techno-economic Analysis
• Examination of the economic feasibility of
wind power investments;
• Calculation of the appropriate economic
indicators;
• Sensitivity analysis of the key input
parameters.
Funded by
Economic Indicators
• Net Present Value (NPV)
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• Payback Period
• Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
• Profitability Index (PI)
Funded by
Economic Indicators
• Net Present Value (NPV)
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• Payback Period
• Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
• Profitability Index (PI)
Funded by
Net Present Value
• Differences between the present values of cash inflows and cash outflows.
• Most usable metric for assessment of investment’s profitability.
• Positive NPV expresses economic feasibility of the project examined.
• Project with the highest NPV is considered as most preferable for
investment.
– 𝐶 𝑂: Investment cost
– 𝑃𝑉𝑡: Present value of cash flows in year t
– 𝑑 : Discount rate
– 𝑁: Project duration (in years)
– 𝑆𝑉𝑁: Salvage value of investment in Nth year
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = −𝐶 𝑂 +
𝑡=1
𝑁
𝑃𝑉𝑡
1 + 𝑑 𝑡
+
𝑆𝑉𝑁
(1 + 𝑑) 𝑁
Funded by
Net Present Value
Advantages
+ Direct measure of the profit contribution to the stakeholders (equity and
debt providers).
+ Easy to calculate.
+ Inflation and returns are taken into account.
Weaknesses
- Projects with different project lifetimes may not be directly compared with
each other.
- Sensitive to reliability of future cash flows.
- It is assumed that the future cash flows are reinvested with the discount rate
of the initial investment.
- Project size in not taken into account.
Funded by
Economic Indicators
• Net Present Value (NPV)
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• Payback Period
• Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
• Profitability Index (PI)
Funded by
Internal Rate of Return
• It is the interest rate that makes NPV of a project equal to zero.
• Every examined investment/project should provide higher IRR than the
enterprise’s cost of capital.
• The project with the highest IRR is, then, promoted for implementation.
Basic Assumptions
• The investment is held till maturity.
• All intermediate cash flows are reinvested at the IRR.
• Identical time intervals between two cash flows are necessary.
𝑁𝑃𝑉(𝑑=𝐼𝑅𝑅) = 0
Funded by
Internal Rate of Return
Advantages
+ Easy to understand.
+ Expresses returns and not absolute profit values (as NPV) – most
preferable from investors.
+ May be estimated regardless of the discount rate level.
Weaknesses
- Difficulty of IRR calculation, especially, in cases of non-stable cash flows.
- It is assumed that the future cash flows are reinvested with the discount
rate of the initial investment.
- When two examined projects are mutually exclusive, then the investment
with the highest IRR is not exclusively the most profitable.
Funded by
NPV vs IRR
Timing of cash flows and project sizes
may result in conflicting outcomes in
the NPV and IRR methods.
Attention!!
Funded by
Economic Indicators
• Net Present Value (NPV)
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• Payback Period
• Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
• Profitability Index (PI)
Funded by
Payback Period
• Represents the time period (in years) needed in order to “pay back”
project’s initial investment.
• The minimum acceptance and ranking criteria are set by decision
makers/investors.
𝑃𝑎𝑦𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 =
𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
Funded by
Payback Period
Advantages
+ Easy to understand and use
+ Biased towards liquidity
+ Is based on earlier cash flows
Weaknesses
- Ignores the time value of money
- Ignores differences in risk of alternative investments
- Uses an arbitrary cutoff point to determine which projects to reject
- Ignores cash flows after the payback period
Advancement - Discounted Payback Period
 Takes into consideration the time value of money
 Investment decision is based on its comparison with an acceptable time
horizon
𝑁𝑃𝑉(𝑁=𝐷𝑃𝑃) = 0
Funded by
Economic Indicators
• Net Present Value (NPV)
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• Payback Period
• Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
• Profitability Index (PI)
Funded by
Levelized Cost of Electricity
• Representation of the cost of electricity produced per unit (euro/MWh)
• Inclusion of annualized electricity production and cost, at present values
• Direct comparison of LCOE with the electricity selling price
• Acceptance of investments with the lowest LCOE
𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸 =
𝐼𝐶 + 𝑡=1
𝑁 𝑂&𝑀𝑡
(1 + 𝑑) 𝑡
𝑡=1
𝑁 𝐸𝑡
(1 + 𝑑) 𝑡
=
𝐼𝐶 ∙ 𝐶𝑅𝐹 + 𝑂&𝑀 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙
𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙
Where:
 𝐼𝐶 : Investment Cost €
 𝑂&𝑀 : Operation & Maintenance Cost €
 𝐸 : Annual Electricity Production [MWh]
 𝑑 : Discount Rate [%]
 𝐶𝐹 : Capacity Factor [%]
 𝐶RF : Capital Recovery Factor [%]
 t : Year of Operation 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
 N : Project lifetime 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝐶𝑅𝐹 =
𝑑
(1 − ( 1 + 𝑑 −𝑁
)
Funded by
Economic Indicators
• Net Present Value (NPV)
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• Payback Period
• Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
• Profitability Index (PI)
Funded by
Profitability Index
• It is extracted by dividing the future cash flows with the initial investment
cost.
• Expresses the value created for each monetary unit expensed.
• Accepted investments are those with PI>1.
• Selection of the project with the highest PI among investment alternatives.
𝑃𝐼 =
𝑁𝑃𝑉 + 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡
𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡
Funded by
Profitability Index
Advantages
+ Easy to understand
+ Closely related to NPV, leading generally to identical decisions
+ Used by companies when available funding is limited
Weaknesses
- Same as IRR, it may lead to wrong decisions when comparing two
mutually exclusive projects.
- It is assumed that the future cash flows are reinvested with the discount
rate of the initial investment.
Funded by
Numerical Case Study
• Assessment of the economic attractiveness of a typical
onshore wind power plant in Greece;
• Calculation of the respective economic indicators;
• Sensitivity analysis of the main input parameters.
Funded by
Numerical Case Study
Project Wind park
Area Greece
Total Power (MW) 20
Capacity Factor (%) 25,7%
Production (MWh) 45.000
Investment Cost (€/MW) 1.200.000 €
Operation & Maintenance Costs (€/kW/year) 47
Total Investment Cost (€) 24.000.000 €
Basic Information
2,250 full
load hours
Funded by
Numerical Case Study
Grants 0,00 € 0 %
Equity capital 12.000.000 € 50 %
Debt capital 12.000.000 € 50 %
Debt rate (%) 7 % Capital Structure
Debt term (years) 10
Electricity Price (€/MWh) 98 €
Discount Rate (%) 10 %
Project Lifetime (years) 20
Corporate tax rate (%) 29 %
Economic Input Data
Funded by
Numerical Case Study
Indicators Values
Net Present Value (NPV)
-62.413 €
1.973.870 €
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
-0,03 %
1,09 %
Discounted Payback Period (DPP) >20 Years
Profitability Index (PI) 0,997
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) 83,5 €/MWh
Financial Indicators Debt/Equity
ratio:
0/100
Debt/Equity
ratio:
50/50
Funded totally
by Equity
capital
Taxes &
Interests are
not included!
Funded by
Numerical Case Study
• Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by
equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 €
EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 €
EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 €
DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 €
EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 €
INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 €
EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 €
TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 €
TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 €
Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 €
Present Value - Equity
& Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 €
Funded by
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 €
EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 €
EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 €
DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 €
EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 €
INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 €
EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 €
TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 €
TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 €
Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 €
Present Value - Equity
& Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 €
Numerical Case Study
• Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by
equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation
𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑠, 𝑇𝑎𝑥𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
(𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷) = 𝐼𝑁𝐶𝑂𝑀𝐸 − 𝐸𝑋𝑃𝐸𝑁𝑆𝐸𝑆
Funded by
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 €
EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 €
EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 €
DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 €
EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 €
INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 €
EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 €
TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 €
TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 €
Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 €
Present Value - Equity
& Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 €
Numerical Case Study
• Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by
equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷 − 𝐷𝐸𝑃𝑅𝐸𝐶𝐼𝐴𝑇𝐼𝑂𝑁
Funded by
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 €
EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 €
EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 €
DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 €
EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 €
INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 €
EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 €
TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 €
TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 €
Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 €
Present Value - Equity
& Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 €
Numerical Case Study
• Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by
equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation
𝐸𝐵𝑇 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 − 𝐼𝑁𝑇𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑆𝑇𝑆
Funded by
Numerical Case Study
• Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by
equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation
𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷 − 𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐸𝑆 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐸𝑆 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 ∗ 𝑇𝑎𝑥 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 €
EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 €
EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 €
DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 €
EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 €
INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 €
EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 €
TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 €
TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 €
Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 €
Present Value - Equity
& Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 €
Funded by
Numerical Case Study
• Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by
equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 €
EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 €
EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 €
DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 €
EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 €
INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 €
EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 €
TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 €
TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 €
Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 €
Present Value - Equity
& Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 €
𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦&𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷 − 𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐸𝑆 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦&𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 − 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑠 ∗ 𝑇𝑎𝑥 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐸𝑆 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦&𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 = 𝐸𝐵𝑇 ∗ 𝑇𝑎𝑥 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒
Funded by
Year 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 €
EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 €
EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 €
DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 €
EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 €
INTERESTS 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 €
EBT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 €
TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 €
TAXES - Equity & Debt -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 €
Present Value - Equity 985.484 € 895.894 € 814.449 € 740.408 € 673.099 € 611.908 € 556.280 € 505.709 € 459.735 € 417.941 €
Present Value - Equity
& Debt 985.484 € 895.894 € 814.449 € 740.408 € 673.099 € 611.908 € 556.280 € 505.709 € 459.735 € 417.941 €
Numerical Case Study
• Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by
equity and debt) during the last 10 years of operation
Funded by
Numerical Case Study
Equity Capital Investment
Present Value Payback
-24.000.000 € -24.000.000 €
2.556.091 € -21.443.909 €
2.323.719 € -19.120.190 €
2.112.472 € -17.007.718 €
1.920.429 € -15.087.289 €
1.745.844 € -13.341.445 €
1.587.131 € -11.754.313 €
1.442.847 € -10.311.467 €
1.311.679 € -8.999.788 €
1.192.435 € -7.807.353 €
1.084.032 € -6.723.321 €
985.484 € -5.737.837 €
895.894 € -4.841.943 €
814.449 € -4.027.493 €
740.408 € -3.287.085 €
673.099 € -2.613.986 €
611.908 € -2.002.078 €
556.280 € -1.445.799 €
505.709 € -940.090 €
459.735 € -480.354 €
417.941 € -62.413 €
IRR DPP
-0,03% > 20 years
Equity & Debt Capital Investment
YEAR
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Present Value Payback
-24.000.000 € -24.000.000 €
2.615.900 € -21.384.100 €
2.433.735 € -18.950.365 €
2.264.255 € -16.686.110 €
2.106.578 € -14.579.532 €
1.959.881 € -12.619.651 €
1.823.399 € -10.796.252 €
1.696.422 € -9.099.829 €
1.578.287 € -7.521.542 €
1.468.379 € -6.053.163 €
1.366.125 € -4.687.038 €
985.484 € -3.701.554 €
895.894 € -2.805.660 €
814.449 € -1.991.211 €
740.408 € -1.250.802 €
673.099 € -577.704 €
611.908 € 34.204 €
556.280 € 590.484 €
505.709 € 1.096.193 €
459.735 € 1.555.929 €
417.941 € 1.973.870 €
IRR DPP
1,09% 15,94
YEAR
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Funded by
Sensitivity Analysis
Electricity price
-20,0%
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
(€30.000.000)
(€25.000.000)
(€20.000.000)
(€15.000.000)
(€10.000.000)
(€5.000.000)
€0
€5.000.000
€10.000.000
€15.000.000
€0,00 €20,00 €40,00 €60,00 €80,00 €100,00 €120,00 €140,00
IRR
NPV
Electricity Price
NPV - Equity & Debt
IRR - Equity & Debt
Funded by
Sensitivity Analysis
Capacity Factor
-8,0%
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
(€15.000.000)
(€10.000.000)
(€5.000.000)
€0
€5.000.000
€10.000.000
€15.000.000
€20.000.000
0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00% 30,00% 35,00% 40,00% 45,00%
IRR
NPV
Capacity Factor
NPV - Equity & Debt
IRR - Equity & Debt
Funded by
Sensitivity Analysis
Discount rate
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
(€4.000.000)
(€2.000.000)
€0
€2.000.000
€4.000.000
€6.000.000
€8.000.000
€10.000.000
€12.000.000
0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% 12,00% 14,00% 16,00%
IRR
NPV
Discount Rate
NPV - Equity & Debt
IRR - Equity & Debt
Funded by
Sensitivity Analysis
Debt Capital
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
€0
€500.000
€1.000.000
€1.500.000
€2.000.000
€2.500.000
€3.000.000
€3.500.000
€4.000.000
€4.500.000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
IRR
NPV
Debt Capital
NPV - Equity & Debt
IRR - Equity & Debt
Funded by
Sensitivity Analysis
Debt Term
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
1,4%
1,6%
1,8%
€0
€500.000
€1.000.000
€1.500.000
€2.000.000
€2.500.000
€3.000.000
€3.500.000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
IRR
NPV
Debt Term
NPV - Equity & Debt
IRR - Equity & Debt
Funded by
Conclusions
• Economic analysis is a critical process to examine if
an investment/project is worthwhile;
• Different economic indicator may be used to
examine financial feasibility of wind energy projects;
• There is no uniform criterion for investment decision
making - a combination of indices is most preferable;
• Several scenarios of input parameters are vital in
order to examine project attractiveness under
different conditions.
Funded by
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S6 oman res technoeconomic aspects

  • 1.
    Funded by EU GCCCLEAN ENERGY NETWORK II Join us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: contact@eugcc-cleanergy.net Dimitrios Angelopoulos & Dimitrios Kanellopoulos
  • 2.
    Funded by Techno-economic Analysis •Examination of the economic feasibility of wind power investments; • Calculation of the appropriate economic indicators; • Sensitivity analysis of the key input parameters.
  • 3.
    Funded by Economic Indicators •Net Present Value (NPV) • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Payback Period • Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) • Profitability Index (PI)
  • 4.
    Funded by Economic Indicators •Net Present Value (NPV) • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Payback Period • Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) • Profitability Index (PI)
  • 5.
    Funded by Net PresentValue • Differences between the present values of cash inflows and cash outflows. • Most usable metric for assessment of investment’s profitability. • Positive NPV expresses economic feasibility of the project examined. • Project with the highest NPV is considered as most preferable for investment. – 𝐶 𝑂: Investment cost – 𝑃𝑉𝑡: Present value of cash flows in year t – 𝑑 : Discount rate – 𝑁: Project duration (in years) – 𝑆𝑉𝑁: Salvage value of investment in Nth year 𝑁𝑃𝑉 = −𝐶 𝑂 + 𝑡=1 𝑁 𝑃𝑉𝑡 1 + 𝑑 𝑡 + 𝑆𝑉𝑁 (1 + 𝑑) 𝑁
  • 6.
    Funded by Net PresentValue Advantages + Direct measure of the profit contribution to the stakeholders (equity and debt providers). + Easy to calculate. + Inflation and returns are taken into account. Weaknesses - Projects with different project lifetimes may not be directly compared with each other. - Sensitive to reliability of future cash flows. - It is assumed that the future cash flows are reinvested with the discount rate of the initial investment. - Project size in not taken into account.
  • 7.
    Funded by Economic Indicators •Net Present Value (NPV) • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Payback Period • Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) • Profitability Index (PI)
  • 8.
    Funded by Internal Rateof Return • It is the interest rate that makes NPV of a project equal to zero. • Every examined investment/project should provide higher IRR than the enterprise’s cost of capital. • The project with the highest IRR is, then, promoted for implementation. Basic Assumptions • The investment is held till maturity. • All intermediate cash flows are reinvested at the IRR. • Identical time intervals between two cash flows are necessary. 𝑁𝑃𝑉(𝑑=𝐼𝑅𝑅) = 0
  • 9.
    Funded by Internal Rateof Return Advantages + Easy to understand. + Expresses returns and not absolute profit values (as NPV) – most preferable from investors. + May be estimated regardless of the discount rate level. Weaknesses - Difficulty of IRR calculation, especially, in cases of non-stable cash flows. - It is assumed that the future cash flows are reinvested with the discount rate of the initial investment. - When two examined projects are mutually exclusive, then the investment with the highest IRR is not exclusively the most profitable.
  • 10.
    Funded by NPV vsIRR Timing of cash flows and project sizes may result in conflicting outcomes in the NPV and IRR methods. Attention!!
  • 11.
    Funded by Economic Indicators •Net Present Value (NPV) • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Payback Period • Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) • Profitability Index (PI)
  • 12.
    Funded by Payback Period •Represents the time period (in years) needed in order to “pay back” project’s initial investment. • The minimum acceptance and ranking criteria are set by decision makers/investors. 𝑃𝑎𝑦𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 = 𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
  • 13.
    Funded by Payback Period Advantages +Easy to understand and use + Biased towards liquidity + Is based on earlier cash flows Weaknesses - Ignores the time value of money - Ignores differences in risk of alternative investments - Uses an arbitrary cutoff point to determine which projects to reject - Ignores cash flows after the payback period Advancement - Discounted Payback Period  Takes into consideration the time value of money  Investment decision is based on its comparison with an acceptable time horizon 𝑁𝑃𝑉(𝑁=𝐷𝑃𝑃) = 0
  • 14.
    Funded by Economic Indicators •Net Present Value (NPV) • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Payback Period • Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) • Profitability Index (PI)
  • 15.
    Funded by Levelized Costof Electricity • Representation of the cost of electricity produced per unit (euro/MWh) • Inclusion of annualized electricity production and cost, at present values • Direct comparison of LCOE with the electricity selling price • Acceptance of investments with the lowest LCOE 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸 = 𝐼𝐶 + 𝑡=1 𝑁 𝑂&𝑀𝑡 (1 + 𝑑) 𝑡 𝑡=1 𝑁 𝐸𝑡 (1 + 𝑑) 𝑡 = 𝐼𝐶 ∙ 𝐶𝑅𝐹 + 𝑂&𝑀 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 Where:  𝐼𝐶 : Investment Cost €  𝑂&𝑀 : Operation & Maintenance Cost €  𝐸 : Annual Electricity Production [MWh]  𝑑 : Discount Rate [%]  𝐶𝐹 : Capacity Factor [%]  𝐶RF : Capital Recovery Factor [%]  t : Year of Operation 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟  N : Project lifetime 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝐶𝑅𝐹 = 𝑑 (1 − ( 1 + 𝑑 −𝑁 )
  • 16.
    Funded by Economic Indicators •Net Present Value (NPV) • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Payback Period • Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) • Profitability Index (PI)
  • 17.
    Funded by Profitability Index •It is extracted by dividing the future cash flows with the initial investment cost. • Expresses the value created for each monetary unit expensed. • Accepted investments are those with PI>1. • Selection of the project with the highest PI among investment alternatives. 𝑃𝐼 = 𝑁𝑃𝑉 + 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡
  • 18.
    Funded by Profitability Index Advantages +Easy to understand + Closely related to NPV, leading generally to identical decisions + Used by companies when available funding is limited Weaknesses - Same as IRR, it may lead to wrong decisions when comparing two mutually exclusive projects. - It is assumed that the future cash flows are reinvested with the discount rate of the initial investment.
  • 19.
    Funded by Numerical CaseStudy • Assessment of the economic attractiveness of a typical onshore wind power plant in Greece; • Calculation of the respective economic indicators; • Sensitivity analysis of the main input parameters.
  • 20.
    Funded by Numerical CaseStudy Project Wind park Area Greece Total Power (MW) 20 Capacity Factor (%) 25,7% Production (MWh) 45.000 Investment Cost (€/MW) 1.200.000 € Operation & Maintenance Costs (€/kW/year) 47 Total Investment Cost (€) 24.000.000 € Basic Information 2,250 full load hours
  • 21.
    Funded by Numerical CaseStudy Grants 0,00 € 0 % Equity capital 12.000.000 € 50 % Debt capital 12.000.000 € 50 % Debt rate (%) 7 % Capital Structure Debt term (years) 10 Electricity Price (€/MWh) 98 € Discount Rate (%) 10 % Project Lifetime (years) 20 Corporate tax rate (%) 29 % Economic Input Data
  • 22.
    Funded by Numerical CaseStudy Indicators Values Net Present Value (NPV) -62.413 € 1.973.870 € Internal Rate of Return (IRR) -0,03 % 1,09 % Discounted Payback Period (DPP) >20 Years Profitability Index (PI) 0,997 Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) 83,5 €/MWh Financial Indicators Debt/Equity ratio: 0/100 Debt/Equity ratio: 50/50 Funded totally by Equity capital Taxes & Interests are not included!
  • 23.
    Funded by Numerical CaseStudy • Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 € EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 € TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 € Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 € Present Value - Equity & Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 €
  • 24.
    Funded by Year 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 € EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 € TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 € Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 € Present Value - Equity & Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 € Numerical Case Study • Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation 𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑠, 𝑇𝑎𝑥𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷) = 𝐼𝑁𝐶𝑂𝑀𝐸 − 𝐸𝑋𝑃𝐸𝑁𝑆𝐸𝑆
  • 25.
    Funded by Year 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 € EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 € TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 € Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 € Present Value - Equity & Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 € Numerical Case Study • Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷 − 𝐷𝐸𝑃𝑅𝐸𝐶𝐼𝐴𝑇𝐼𝑂𝑁
  • 26.
    Funded by Year 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 € EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 € TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 € Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 € Present Value - Equity & Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 € Numerical Case Study • Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation 𝐸𝐵𝑇 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 − 𝐼𝑁𝑇𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑆𝑇𝑆
  • 27.
    Funded by Numerical CaseStudy • Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷 − 𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐸𝑆 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐸𝑆 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 ∗ 𝑇𝑎𝑥 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 € EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 € TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 € Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 € Present Value - Equity & Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 €
  • 28.
    Funded by Numerical CaseStudy • Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by equity and debt) during the first 10 years of operation Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € INTERESTS -840.000 € -779.203 € -714.150 € -644.543 € -570.064 € -490.372 € -405.101 € -313.861 € -216.234 € -111.773 € EBT 1.430.000 € 1.490.797 € 1.555.850 € 1.625.457 € 1.699.936 € 1.779.628 € 1.864.899 € 1.956.139 € 2.053.766 € 2.158.227 € TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € TAXES - Equity & Debt -414.700 € -432.331 € -451.197 € -471.382 € -492.981 € -516.092 € -540.821 € -567.280 € -595.592 € -625.886 € Present Value - Equity 2.556.091 € 2.323.719 € 2.112.472 € 1.920.429 € 1.745.844 € 1.587.131 € 1.442.847 € 1.311.679 € 1.192.435 € 1.084.032 € Present Value - Equity & Debt 2.615.900 € 2.433.735 € 2.264.255 € 2.106.578 € 1.959.881 € 1.823.399 € 1.696.422 € 1.578.287 € 1.468.379 € 1.366.125 € 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦&𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷 − 𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐸𝑆 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦&𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 − 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑠 ∗ 𝑇𝑎𝑥 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐸𝑆 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦&𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 = 𝐸𝐵𝑇 ∗ 𝑇𝑎𝑥 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒
  • 29.
    Funded by Year 1112 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 INCOME 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € 4.410.000 € EXPENSES 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € 940.000 € EBITD 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € 3.470.000 € DEPRECIATION 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € 1.200.000 € EBIT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € INTERESTS 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € EBT 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € 2.270.000 € TAXES - Equity -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € TAXES - Equity & Debt -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € -658.300 € Present Value - Equity 985.484 € 895.894 € 814.449 € 740.408 € 673.099 € 611.908 € 556.280 € 505.709 € 459.735 € 417.941 € Present Value - Equity & Debt 985.484 € 895.894 € 814.449 € 740.408 € 673.099 € 611.908 € 556.280 € 505.709 € 459.735 € 417.941 € Numerical Case Study • Calculation of the discounted net cash flows (for investment funded totally by equity or by equity and debt) during the last 10 years of operation
  • 30.
    Funded by Numerical CaseStudy Equity Capital Investment Present Value Payback -24.000.000 € -24.000.000 € 2.556.091 € -21.443.909 € 2.323.719 € -19.120.190 € 2.112.472 € -17.007.718 € 1.920.429 € -15.087.289 € 1.745.844 € -13.341.445 € 1.587.131 € -11.754.313 € 1.442.847 € -10.311.467 € 1.311.679 € -8.999.788 € 1.192.435 € -7.807.353 € 1.084.032 € -6.723.321 € 985.484 € -5.737.837 € 895.894 € -4.841.943 € 814.449 € -4.027.493 € 740.408 € -3.287.085 € 673.099 € -2.613.986 € 611.908 € -2.002.078 € 556.280 € -1.445.799 € 505.709 € -940.090 € 459.735 € -480.354 € 417.941 € -62.413 € IRR DPP -0,03% > 20 years Equity & Debt Capital Investment YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Present Value Payback -24.000.000 € -24.000.000 € 2.615.900 € -21.384.100 € 2.433.735 € -18.950.365 € 2.264.255 € -16.686.110 € 2.106.578 € -14.579.532 € 1.959.881 € -12.619.651 € 1.823.399 € -10.796.252 € 1.696.422 € -9.099.829 € 1.578.287 € -7.521.542 € 1.468.379 € -6.053.163 € 1.366.125 € -4.687.038 € 985.484 € -3.701.554 € 895.894 € -2.805.660 € 814.449 € -1.991.211 € 740.408 € -1.250.802 € 673.099 € -577.704 € 611.908 € 34.204 € 556.280 € 590.484 € 505.709 € 1.096.193 € 459.735 € 1.555.929 € 417.941 € 1.973.870 € IRR DPP 1,09% 15,94 YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
  • 31.
    Funded by Sensitivity Analysis Electricityprice -20,0% -15,0% -10,0% -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% (€30.000.000) (€25.000.000) (€20.000.000) (€15.000.000) (€10.000.000) (€5.000.000) €0 €5.000.000 €10.000.000 €15.000.000 €0,00 €20,00 €40,00 €60,00 €80,00 €100,00 €120,00 €140,00 IRR NPV Electricity Price NPV - Equity & Debt IRR - Equity & Debt
  • 32.
    Funded by Sensitivity Analysis CapacityFactor -8,0% -6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% (€15.000.000) (€10.000.000) (€5.000.000) €0 €5.000.000 €10.000.000 €15.000.000 €20.000.000 0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00% 30,00% 35,00% 40,00% 45,00% IRR NPV Capacity Factor NPV - Equity & Debt IRR - Equity & Debt
  • 33.
    Funded by Sensitivity Analysis Discountrate -2,0% -1,0% 0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% (€4.000.000) (€2.000.000) €0 €2.000.000 €4.000.000 €6.000.000 €8.000.000 €10.000.000 €12.000.000 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% 12,00% 14,00% 16,00% IRR NPV Discount Rate NPV - Equity & Debt IRR - Equity & Debt
  • 34.
    Funded by Sensitivity Analysis DebtCapital 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% €0 €500.000 €1.000.000 €1.500.000 €2.000.000 €2.500.000 €3.000.000 €3.500.000 €4.000.000 €4.500.000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IRR NPV Debt Capital NPV - Equity & Debt IRR - Equity & Debt
  • 35.
    Funded by Sensitivity Analysis DebtTerm 0,0% 0,2% 0,4% 0,6% 0,8% 1,0% 1,2% 1,4% 1,6% 1,8% €0 €500.000 €1.000.000 €1.500.000 €2.000.000 €2.500.000 €3.000.000 €3.500.000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 IRR NPV Debt Term NPV - Equity & Debt IRR - Equity & Debt
  • 36.
    Funded by Conclusions • Economicanalysis is a critical process to examine if an investment/project is worthwhile; • Different economic indicator may be used to examine financial feasibility of wind energy projects; • There is no uniform criterion for investment decision making - a combination of indices is most preferable; • Several scenarios of input parameters are vital in order to examine project attractiveness under different conditions.
  • 37.
    Funded by Stay tunedfor new Network Events, Activities and Initiatives soon to be launched! EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK Join us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: contact@eugcc-cleanergy.net