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www.luxoft.com
Embedded Fest 2019
The Mobility Revolution
www.luxoft.com
Slowing Vehicle Production Growth Environment
2
• Growth from recovery following 2009
downturn is running out of steam in
mature markets
• World’s largest market, China, is
slowing down after approaching 30M
units
• Market growth to steadily decrease to
~1% CAGR in outer years
Global Light Vehicle Production
Supplier revenue growth will depend on product portfolio and content per vehicle
Slowing growth in
mature markets
China market to
mature
2010 2017 2021 2025
Recovery and sustained growth
~3.5% CAGR
~2% CAGR
~1% CAGR
www.luxoft.com
Key Trends in Automotive
3
Autonomous Connected Electric Shared
Industry evolving from
Level 1 and 2 to higher
levels of automated
driving
Sensor fusion and
neural networks
emerging as key new
technologies
Level 3 expected to
launch by 2020
Cloud and streaming
content for navigation
and media
HTML5 and Android
emerging as key
technologies
Most new cars to be
connected by 2020
Battery EVs expected to
grow quickly as prices
decrease
EV development takes
priority with all
automotive
manufacturers
China mandate for 12%
of passenger vehicles
sold by 2020
Ride and car sharing to
grow, especially in
urban areas
Cloud tech giants and
carmakers to compete
for share of this market
~10% of miles traveled
by 2025
Autonomous and connected car are key trends for technology suppliers
www.luxoft.com
Unique Challenges of Automotive Electronics
4
Vastly different requirements for
software
• Latest consumer electronics features
for Driver Info
• Fast and reliable object detection and
classification for Safety
• Precise real-time messaging for
Powertrain
Different software operating systems
and frameworks
• AutoSAR, QNX, Linux, Android,
Graphics, AI
• MOST, CAN, Ethernet, etc. network
technologies
Automotive electronics is the most complex system built for consumer use
Rapid growth in
number of ECUs
• 30-150 ECUs in cars
today … and growing
Large software code
base
• 100+ million lines of
code in premium cars
• More than any
consumer electronics
device
Electronic Control Unit
(ECU)
www.luxoft.com
Key Domains of Automotive Electronics
5
Driver info and safety are faster growing domains within automotive electronics
Domain
Driver Info
Safety
Instrument Cluster, Infotainment, Head-Up Display,
Center Information Display, Telematics
ABS Braking, Forward Collision Warning, Lane Departure Warning,
Rear Camera, E-Call, V2V/V2X, Autonomous Driving
Body / Chassis
Powertrain
Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, Lighting Control,
Power Seats/Doors/Windows, Remote Key
Engine Control, Transmission Control, Steering Control, Starter
www.luxoft.com
ECU Consolidation in Automotive Electronics
6
Integrated domain controllers replacing individual ECUs
0.2
0.9
1.9
3.6
6.6
9.9
14.2
Exponential Growth of Cockpit
Controllers
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Market Growth
(Units in millions)
30 -150
ECUs in car
Leverages silicon and software innovations
Reduces cost, weight and power consumption
Consolidation of ECUs into domain controllers
TomorrowToday
www.luxoft.com
Aims and benefits of using AUTOSAR
7
AUTOSAR aims to standardize the software architecture of Electronic Control Units (ECUs). AUTOSAR paves the way for
innovative electronic systems that further improve performance, safety and environmental friendliness.
• Hardware and software – widely
independent of each other.
• Development can be recoupled
by horizontal layers, reducing
development time and costs.
• Reuse of software enhances
quality and efficiency.
www.luxoft.com
AUTOSAR – Partners Network
www.luxoft.com
Key Trends in Driver Info
Single integrated ECU powering all cockpit electronics instead of multiple discrete ECUs
2015 2020 2023
Analog Cluster Digital Cluster Integrated Digital Cluster and Display Audio
From analog meter to all-digital cluster
From AM/FM radio to connected
infotainment
AM/FM radio Display Audio
Integrated cockpit domain controller powered by single ECU
www.luxoft.com
Growth of Driver Info Market
10
Digital clusters and connected infotainment driving growth in driver info market
2017 2022
95.1M
Units
105.7M
Units
2017 2022
$34B
$50B
2017 2022
95.1M
Units
105.7M
Units CAGR
Growth of Instrument Clusters Growth of Infotainment Growth of Driver Info
All Digital
Hybrid
Analog
Audio
Display
Audio
Embedded
Infotainment
• Hybrid and all-digital clusters growing faster while analog clusters decrease
• Display Audio is fastest growing segment of infotainment
• Increase in ASP drives higher growth of Driver Info market
40%
56%
4%
21%
66%
13%
55%
15%
30%
30%
35%
35%
www.luxoft.com
Evolution of Safety Features
11
Level 3 autonomous systems expected to launch starting in 2020
$10.2
$14.0
$18.4
$24.1
$32.4
Highway Pilot Traffic
Jam Pilot
Adaptive Cruise Control
Data Source: Roland Berger, July 2016
(Dollars in billions)
Autonomous Driving Market by Features
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
16% CAGR
(2017-2025)
Parking Assist Self
Parking
Blind Spot Detection
Driver Monitoring
Night Vision
Lane Departure
Warning
Autonomous Driving Market Roadmap
Forward
Driving
Side/
Rear
Parking
Adaptive Cruise
Control (ACC)
Lane Keeping
Assist (LKA)
Lane Change
Assist
Cross Traffic
Alert
Surround View
Advanced
Emergency
Braking
Traffic Jam
Assist
Parallel Park
Highway
Pilot
Parking Assist
City Pilot
Valet Parking
Autopilot
L1 L2 L3 L4 L5
ACC with LKA
Highway
Pilot
2020
www.luxoft.com
Key Challenge – Increasing Reliance on Software
12
Software competence is critical to automotive OEM’s and suppliers’ future
Software
Content
Basic
Medium
High
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
City Autopilot
Augmented Reality
Autonomous HMI High-Definition Map
Cockpit Domain Controller Highway Autopilot
HTML5/Android Apps Sensor Fusion
Natural Language Interaction Self-Parking
OTA Software Updates Driver Monitoring
All-Digital Instrument Cluster 5G Telematics
GPS Navigation Speech
Recognition
USB Media 2G/3G Telematics Rear
View Camera
5”-7” Display Instrument Cluster
AM/FM/Bluetooth Radio
Basic Buttons/Controls
Segment LCD Instrument Cluster
AM/FM Radio
Analog Instrument Cluster
Combiner HUD Windscreen HUD
Smartphone Projection
3G/4G Telematics
Convergence of automotive cockpit and consumer
electronics
Increasing pace of new feature introduction in
cockpit
Transition to cockpit domain controllers
Evolution to Level 3 autonomous driving features
require new software technologies
High cost of field updates for error correction
Drivers of Software
Complexity
www.luxoft.com
Implications for Suppliers in Auto 2.0
13
Auto suppliers will need to transform into software companies
Shift from systems integrator to IP
creator
Transform into software
technology company
Develop software talent
globally
• Technology cycles compressing
rapidly
• Focus on core areas of
technology
• Develop differentiated IP in
focus areas
• Cultural mindset change across
the whole organization
• Changes required for business
and engineering processes
• Core set of software platforms
instead of point solutions
• Compete with industry and other
tech companies for talent
• Build global footprint to tap into
worldwide talent pool
• Develop strategic partnerships
with like-minded software
services companies
www.luxoft.com
In Conclusion…
14
Auto industry is going through a significant transformation with multiple, simultaneous trends – ACES
OEMs and Auto electronics suppliers will have to adapt to new challenges to thrive in the new environment
Tier-1s business is evolving from primarily hardware to software, which in turn will drive consolidation of
the supplier base
OEMs try to take over the lead in driverless, car sharing, and smart mobility; launch their own ridesharing
operations, preferably in cooperation with other car OEMs and SW providers
Significant growth opportunities for suppliers that can make the transition successfully to software
oriented business
www.luxoft.com
Thank you

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Embedded Fest 2019. Віталій Нужний. The Mobility Revolution: the Software that is Driving the Automotive Industry

  • 2. www.luxoft.com Slowing Vehicle Production Growth Environment 2 • Growth from recovery following 2009 downturn is running out of steam in mature markets • World’s largest market, China, is slowing down after approaching 30M units • Market growth to steadily decrease to ~1% CAGR in outer years Global Light Vehicle Production Supplier revenue growth will depend on product portfolio and content per vehicle Slowing growth in mature markets China market to mature 2010 2017 2021 2025 Recovery and sustained growth ~3.5% CAGR ~2% CAGR ~1% CAGR
  • 3. www.luxoft.com Key Trends in Automotive 3 Autonomous Connected Electric Shared Industry evolving from Level 1 and 2 to higher levels of automated driving Sensor fusion and neural networks emerging as key new technologies Level 3 expected to launch by 2020 Cloud and streaming content for navigation and media HTML5 and Android emerging as key technologies Most new cars to be connected by 2020 Battery EVs expected to grow quickly as prices decrease EV development takes priority with all automotive manufacturers China mandate for 12% of passenger vehicles sold by 2020 Ride and car sharing to grow, especially in urban areas Cloud tech giants and carmakers to compete for share of this market ~10% of miles traveled by 2025 Autonomous and connected car are key trends for technology suppliers
  • 4. www.luxoft.com Unique Challenges of Automotive Electronics 4 Vastly different requirements for software • Latest consumer electronics features for Driver Info • Fast and reliable object detection and classification for Safety • Precise real-time messaging for Powertrain Different software operating systems and frameworks • AutoSAR, QNX, Linux, Android, Graphics, AI • MOST, CAN, Ethernet, etc. network technologies Automotive electronics is the most complex system built for consumer use Rapid growth in number of ECUs • 30-150 ECUs in cars today … and growing Large software code base • 100+ million lines of code in premium cars • More than any consumer electronics device Electronic Control Unit (ECU)
  • 5. www.luxoft.com Key Domains of Automotive Electronics 5 Driver info and safety are faster growing domains within automotive electronics Domain Driver Info Safety Instrument Cluster, Infotainment, Head-Up Display, Center Information Display, Telematics ABS Braking, Forward Collision Warning, Lane Departure Warning, Rear Camera, E-Call, V2V/V2X, Autonomous Driving Body / Chassis Powertrain Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, Lighting Control, Power Seats/Doors/Windows, Remote Key Engine Control, Transmission Control, Steering Control, Starter
  • 6. www.luxoft.com ECU Consolidation in Automotive Electronics 6 Integrated domain controllers replacing individual ECUs 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.6 9.9 14.2 Exponential Growth of Cockpit Controllers 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Market Growth (Units in millions) 30 -150 ECUs in car Leverages silicon and software innovations Reduces cost, weight and power consumption Consolidation of ECUs into domain controllers TomorrowToday
  • 7. www.luxoft.com Aims and benefits of using AUTOSAR 7 AUTOSAR aims to standardize the software architecture of Electronic Control Units (ECUs). AUTOSAR paves the way for innovative electronic systems that further improve performance, safety and environmental friendliness. • Hardware and software – widely independent of each other. • Development can be recoupled by horizontal layers, reducing development time and costs. • Reuse of software enhances quality and efficiency.
  • 9. www.luxoft.com Key Trends in Driver Info Single integrated ECU powering all cockpit electronics instead of multiple discrete ECUs 2015 2020 2023 Analog Cluster Digital Cluster Integrated Digital Cluster and Display Audio From analog meter to all-digital cluster From AM/FM radio to connected infotainment AM/FM radio Display Audio Integrated cockpit domain controller powered by single ECU
  • 10. www.luxoft.com Growth of Driver Info Market 10 Digital clusters and connected infotainment driving growth in driver info market 2017 2022 95.1M Units 105.7M Units 2017 2022 $34B $50B 2017 2022 95.1M Units 105.7M Units CAGR Growth of Instrument Clusters Growth of Infotainment Growth of Driver Info All Digital Hybrid Analog Audio Display Audio Embedded Infotainment • Hybrid and all-digital clusters growing faster while analog clusters decrease • Display Audio is fastest growing segment of infotainment • Increase in ASP drives higher growth of Driver Info market 40% 56% 4% 21% 66% 13% 55% 15% 30% 30% 35% 35%
  • 11. www.luxoft.com Evolution of Safety Features 11 Level 3 autonomous systems expected to launch starting in 2020 $10.2 $14.0 $18.4 $24.1 $32.4 Highway Pilot Traffic Jam Pilot Adaptive Cruise Control Data Source: Roland Berger, July 2016 (Dollars in billions) Autonomous Driving Market by Features 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 16% CAGR (2017-2025) Parking Assist Self Parking Blind Spot Detection Driver Monitoring Night Vision Lane Departure Warning Autonomous Driving Market Roadmap Forward Driving Side/ Rear Parking Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) Lane Keeping Assist (LKA) Lane Change Assist Cross Traffic Alert Surround View Advanced Emergency Braking Traffic Jam Assist Parallel Park Highway Pilot Parking Assist City Pilot Valet Parking Autopilot L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 ACC with LKA Highway Pilot 2020
  • 12. www.luxoft.com Key Challenge – Increasing Reliance on Software 12 Software competence is critical to automotive OEM’s and suppliers’ future Software Content Basic Medium High 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 City Autopilot Augmented Reality Autonomous HMI High-Definition Map Cockpit Domain Controller Highway Autopilot HTML5/Android Apps Sensor Fusion Natural Language Interaction Self-Parking OTA Software Updates Driver Monitoring All-Digital Instrument Cluster 5G Telematics GPS Navigation Speech Recognition USB Media 2G/3G Telematics Rear View Camera 5”-7” Display Instrument Cluster AM/FM/Bluetooth Radio Basic Buttons/Controls Segment LCD Instrument Cluster AM/FM Radio Analog Instrument Cluster Combiner HUD Windscreen HUD Smartphone Projection 3G/4G Telematics Convergence of automotive cockpit and consumer electronics Increasing pace of new feature introduction in cockpit Transition to cockpit domain controllers Evolution to Level 3 autonomous driving features require new software technologies High cost of field updates for error correction Drivers of Software Complexity
  • 13. www.luxoft.com Implications for Suppliers in Auto 2.0 13 Auto suppliers will need to transform into software companies Shift from systems integrator to IP creator Transform into software technology company Develop software talent globally • Technology cycles compressing rapidly • Focus on core areas of technology • Develop differentiated IP in focus areas • Cultural mindset change across the whole organization • Changes required for business and engineering processes • Core set of software platforms instead of point solutions • Compete with industry and other tech companies for talent • Build global footprint to tap into worldwide talent pool • Develop strategic partnerships with like-minded software services companies
  • 14. www.luxoft.com In Conclusion… 14 Auto industry is going through a significant transformation with multiple, simultaneous trends – ACES OEMs and Auto electronics suppliers will have to adapt to new challenges to thrive in the new environment Tier-1s business is evolving from primarily hardware to software, which in turn will drive consolidation of the supplier base OEMs try to take over the lead in driverless, car sharing, and smart mobility; launch their own ridesharing operations, preferably in cooperation with other car OEMs and SW providers Significant growth opportunities for suppliers that can make the transition successfully to software oriented business