Autonomous Automobiles: A Quick Glance at the Emerging Technology

www.ucgef.org
A Quick Glance at
Autonomous
Automobiles
Michael M. Hsieh, Ph.D.
VP of Green IT Taskforce and Education Program,
US China Green Energy Council;

Level of Autonomy Defined by NHTSA
10/17/2016 2Reference: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Level Definition Description
0
No
Automation
The driver is in complete and sole control of the vehicle at all times. The driver has full
control over the primary vehicle controls (brakes, steering, acceleration/drive) is himself
responsible for driving the vehicle safely.
1
Function
Specific
Automation
One or more specific control functions are automated independently, for example
electronic stability control or dynamic brake support in emergencies. The driver is fully
engaged and responsible for overall vehicle control.
2
Combined
Function
Automation
At least two controls are automated and work in unison, such as adaptive cruise control
in combination with lane keeping. The driver disengages from active control in certain
limited driving situations, and is still responsible for monitoring the roadway and safe
operation.
3
Limited Self-
Driving
Automation
The driver cedes full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or
environmental conditions, relying heavily on the vehicle to sense changes in those
conditions that require the driver to take back control within a comfortable transition
time.
4
Full Self-
Driving
Automation
1. The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor
roadway conditions for an entire trip. The driver is not expected to operate at any
time or else the vehicle can be unoccupied.
2. This also includes vehicles without passengers or drivers. Driving safety rests
entirely upon the vehicle's automated system.

Self-Driving Cars Are Coming
10/17/2016 3Reference: “Self-Driving Cars Are Coming, But They’re Not Ready
For Pittsburgh Yet”, Stephanie Roman, March 2016

Technologies for Fully Autonomous Cars
• Anti-lock brakes(ABS)
• Electronic stability control (ESC)
• Adaptive Cruise Control & Automotive Night
Vision
• Lane Departure Warning System
• Self-Parking
• Automated Guided Vehicle Systems
• And Lots and Lots More …
10/17/2016 4Reference: “Self-Driving Cars”, An Independent Analyst, September 2015

A Street View in the Next 5 to 10 Years
10/17/2016 5Reference: “The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks –
Modern Car Technology”,Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015

An Illustration of A Self-Driving Car

Some Known Sensors for Autonomous Cars

Some Essential Hardware
• Sensors: for 360 degrees around the vehicle
within 5 meters range
• Cameras: working with RADAR to detect
objects in front of and behind a vehicle
• RADAR: detects the objects on the road that
the vehicle must avoid or brake for
• GPS: provides an approximate position of the
vehicle within +/- 20 meters
• LIDAR: creates a virtual reality view around
the vehicle
10/17/2016 10Reference: “Google Self-Driving Car Technology”,Priya Prabhu, Trikaripur
University, September 2015

Automotive Architecture Modeling
10/17/2016 11Reference: “Automotive System and Software Architecture”,
Yanja Dajsuren, Eindhoven University, March 2014

Some Essential Softweare
• Predefined 3D map
• Traffic Center
• Sensor Data Processing
• Localization
• Obstacle Tracking
• Control
10/17/2016 12Reference: “Self-Driving Car in the Insurance Market”,
Auditorio Reale Seguros, Reale Sequros Inc., June 2016

What’s Going On Inside a Modern Car
TPMS: Tire Pressure Monitoring System
OBD-II: On-Board Diagnostics

Comparison of Software Complexity
10/17/2016 14
• Boeing 787, one of the most Electronic Airliner: ~8
Million Lines of Code
• Chevrolet Volt, one Modern Day City Car: ~40 Million
Lines of Code
Reference: “Automotive System and Software Architecture”,
Yanja Dajsuren, Eindhoven University, March 2014

Complexity in Automotive Software
Automotive has 6-8 operating systems per vehicle today.
A self-driving car from Google has 2 Billion Lines of Code.
10/17/2016 15Reference: “Shifting to Software – A New Look of Automotive Landscape”,
Thomas Bloor, QNX Software Systems, September 2016

Street Situations Handled by a Car “Driver”

The Role of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• The Goal of AI Agent is to take the passenger
to its desired destination safely and legally.
• Google Maps and the hardware sensors data
are sent to the AI.
• AI determines:
– How fast to accelerate
– When to slow down/stop
– When to steer the wheel
– And many other things needing support for
Decision Making

From Sensing to Actions – The Pipeline

The Benefit from “Machine-in-Control”

The Compute Engine Behind Software
10/17/2016 20

Attack Surfaces of a Self-Driving Car
10/17/2016 21
PassThru: J2534, also known as Pass-Thru, ensures that independent repair
shops can work on modern cars and have cost-effective access to information
and ECU programming downloads from vehicle manufacturer when required.
Reference: “The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks –
OBD: On-Board Diagnostics
WMA: Windows Media Audio

Threat Model in the Cyber World
10/17/2 2
Reference: “The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks –
Modern Car Technology”, Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015
• Indirect Physical Access
– OBD-II port (Federeally Mandated in USA)
– Disc, USB and iPot Port
• Short Range Wireless
– Bluetooth
– Remote Keyless Entry
– RFIDs
– Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC)
• Long Range Wireless
– Satellite Radio
– GPS

Vulneralbility from Wireless Interfaces
Modern Car Technology”, Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015

33 Corporations Working on Autonomous Automobiles
10/17/2016 24
Google and Tesla might be the biggest names
chasing self-driving cars, but a host of auto
brands and other tech heavyweights are also
investing heavily in driverless R&D.
Reference: “33 Corporations Working on Autonomous
Automobiles”, CB Insights, August 2016

The Still Unfolding Reality versus Fiction
10/17/2016 25Reference: “Driving Disrupted – Driverless Cars
Change Everything”, Sparks & Honey, October 2014

Impact to Insurance market
• Until 2020:
 Most of the key players in the ordinary car industry will provide level 3
cars improving existing driver assistance systems (the exemption is
Volvo)
 Technological companies as Google and Apple seem to directly build a
self driving car on level 4 and not to develop it by improving existing
driver assistance systems
• At 2040, the autonomous cars will become our primary means of transport
• Studies suggest that self-driving cars would dramatically reduce car
ownership.
• If autonomous cars can bring down accident rates substantially, standard
motor premiums will fall.
• If the driver-owner model of car ownership is replaced by pooled, shared
or leased driving, insurers may look to provide risk coverage to the
ownership collective; or look to continue insuring the driver on a pay-as-
you-go basis.

The On-going Evolution for Automobiles

Impact by Self-Driving Automobiles
10/17/2016 28
90% of cars become self-driving would
lead to:
• Doubling of the road capacity
• Reducing driving times by 60% on
motorways & 15% on suburban roads
Source: University of Texas study
Reference: “Driverless Cars – Impact on Real Estate”, Rodrigo Amado, Emily
Dunn, Pauline Martin, Kshitij Parashar, Clelia Schwing, September 2016

What to Watch
10/17/2016 29
• Increased land and property value in
suburban areas
• Large combined retail and
residential property developments
• Less residential parking space
allocated
• Decrease in parking space per car

What to Watch
10/17/2016 30
Surburbs with
Increased
Property Value
Lifestyle &
Entertainment areas
Less Parking Space

Parking Space Has Been At a Premium
10/17/2016 31Reference: “Driverless Cars – Impact on Real Estate”, Rodrigo Amado, Emily
2
Office Inventory
Self-Driving Cars will reduce Parking Space (No Turkey Allowed in the Parking Lot)

A Potentially Big Impact to Cities
“Cities may become places where no one lives but
where everyone works and meets” (Noah Smith,
2015)

Potential Impact to Residential Housing in Suburbs
10/17/2016 33
• Faster and easier commutes means residential
property value shifting from urban centres to
suburban areas
• Reduced time & cost of driving
• Bigger houses
• Retail and residential combined
• More ‘row house complexes’ with bigger
common areas (i.e. parks and gardens)
• Landlords now have more incentive to build
complexes in the suburbs.

Potential Impact by Self-Driving Automobiles
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016
Commercial
Real Estate
Single-
Family
Real
Estate
Development cost Occupancy cost
10-12 % 4,5 %
Cost/unit Volume/unit
+25% -25%
25-30% Mortgage
Offices’ Underground garage

Electric Vehicle versus Autonomous Vehicle
10/17/2016 35
• Electric Vehicle and Autonomous Vehicle are Independent
and Non-contradictory ways of building vehicles.
• An Autonomous Vehicle is one that is capable of sensing its
environment and navigating without human input.
• An Electric Vehicle is an automobile that is propelled by one
or more electric motors, using electric energy stored in
rechargeable batteries or another energy storage device.
• It is clear that an Autonomous Vehicle can use a powertrain
that includes an Internal Combustion Engine or Electric
Motors. The trend seems to be using Electric Motors.
• It is also clear that an Electric Vehicle can be built to be
capable of sensing its environment and navigating without
human input. There seems to be a trend to include the Self-
Driving feature moving forward.
Reference: Wikipedia

PROs and CONs for Electric Cars
10/17/2016 36
For Electric Cars
Year PROs CONs
2015
1. Cheaper Operating Costs
2. Silence Is Golden
3. Recharging Your Battery
Pack at Home
4. Zero Tailpipe Emissions
1. Range Anxiety
2. Charging Infrastructure At
Home, At Work, and Along
the Freeways
3. The High Price of EVs
4. Limited Choice of EVs
5. Long Recharging Time
2016
1. Quiet and Quick
2. Home Charging
3. Cheaper to Operate
4. No Tailpipe Emissions
1. Range Anxiety
2. Long Refueling Time
3. Higher Acquisition Cost
4. Lack of Consumer Choice
Reference: “Electric Cars PROs and
CONs”, Brad Berman, September 2016

PROs and CONs for Self-Driving Cars
10/17/2016 37
For Self-Driving Cars
Year PROs CONs
2016
1. Potential to reduce
the number of Road
Accidents
2. Passengers can carry
on with other things
3. Mobility for disabled
individuals
1. Potential to be hacked
2. What happens if a
sensor goes out?
3. Cost of the Technology
Reference: “The advantages and disadvantages of
self-driving cars”, Geoff Haines, June 2016

Positive Opinions about Self-Driving Cars
• A computer is an Ideal Motorist when
compared with a Human.
• Computers use algorithms and data to
drastically reduce the chances of car accidents.
• Zero chance for Distracting a computer.
• Computer driven cars will dramatically reduce
the danger of driving.
• Significant savings in many different venues
such as insurance cost and healthcare cost.
• Saving time for humans while a computer
takes over the driving responsibilities.
• “Platooning” behavior of Self-Driving cars
would significantly improve traffic conditions
and congestion and reduce commute time.
• Can identify traffic problems or road risks early
on.
• Freedom and Mobility for all including those
who could not get it.
• Partially filling the void of lacking adequate
Public Transportation.
• Possible Higher Speed Limit and further
reducing Time On the Road.
• Creating more new jobs.
• Many Partial Functionalities already deployed
in the high-end cars.
• Greatly reducing the occurrence of Drunk
Driving Incidents.
• Saving from Not to Continue on the Old Mass
Transit Projects.
• Less Police Resource burnt on traffic related
issues.
• Self-Driving Cars can be spaced much closer on
the road.
• Less parking structure and much less parking
headaches.
• Much less need for special driver license for
operating cars.
• Better accommodation for senior citizens and
handicapped people.
10/17/2016 38
Reference: “Top 20 PROs and CONs Associated with
self-driving cars”, Auto Insurance Center, 2016

Negative Opinions about Self-Driving Cars
• Training needed to educate people to operate a self-
driving car.
• Cost of a self-driving car could be out of reach for
the general public for a long time.
• Accidents can and will still happen if self-driving cars
are not adopted widely.
• Cyber Security is a very big concern.
• A computer built in a self-driving car could have
been a set-up for collecting personal data.
• Self-driving cars could cause job losses, especially in
the transportation sector, especially when it comes
to freight transportation and taxi drivers.
• Who holds responsibility in a car accident- the
driver? The car manufacturer? The software
developer?
• What role the driver might have to play in the event
the technology fails?
• In the event of an accident, for example, where a
police officer is directing traffic, the cars cannot
interpret human signals.
• In the event of a technology glitch or recall, drivers
might be helpless to get around, having been "out of
practice" in the driving world for some time.
• It's unclear how full adoption of the technology might be.
• Many individuals are nervous about handing over all the power
to a computer, which could malfunction and put the driver in a
more dangerous situation.
• It's unclear how self-driving cars would maneuver through
hazards like roadblocks or unique local driving laws.
• The success of self-driving cars currently relies on accurate
mapping systems through GPS but GPS devices are not always
accurate.
• NHTSA remains skeptical of the technology behind self-driving
cars, even calling for a ban on them at one point until further
testing could be completed.
• Google is currently at the helm of development for the cars,
other auto manufacturers might sell fewer cars in the event
that Google's version takes off.
• It's likely that the self-driving cars would be electric. This
implies bad news for the gasoline industry as well as the
Internal Combustion Engine based industry.
• Personal injury lawyers may see a reduction in their earnings if
self-driving cars truly are safer and reduce the number of
accidents on the road.
• Driver's education courses would lose money and go out of
business because there would be less of a need to educate
people how to drive.
• People who enjoy driving are unlikely to buy into the
technology that means they no longer need to focus behind
the wheel.
10/17/2016 39Reference: “Top 20 PROs and CONs Associated with
self-driving cars”, Auto Insurance Center, 2016

Autonomous Automobiles: A Quick Glance at the Emerging Technology

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