Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




                  Refined Ferro Chrome
             Analysis Of The Market For
         Low & Medium Carbon Ferro Chrome


                                                  Prabhash Gokarn


Prabhash Gokarn                                                 1
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts


                  Presentation Structure
      •   Analysis of Refined FeCr                              3
      •   Use of Low Carbon Ferro Chrome                        5
      •   Production Process                                    7
      •   Supply Demand Scenario                               10
      •   Impacting On Price                                   17
      •   Rising demand & rising cost                          18
      •   Main Producers                                       22
      •   Specifications of Ref FeCr                           26


Prabhash Gokarn                                                     2
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




                  Analysis of Refined FeCr




Prabhash Gokarn                                                3
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts



                                Low-carbon ferro-chrome product range
                      Cr       C         Si        P        S       N       Co      Mn     V

       Low-carbon ferro-chrome:

       LCFeCr         68-      0.03-     max       max      max     -       -       -      -
                      73%      0.10%     1.5%      0.03%    0.02%
                      68-      0.015-    max       max      max     -       -       -      -
                      73%      0.03%     1.5%      0.03%    0.02%

       LN LCFeCr      Min      max       max       max      max     max     -       -      -
                      69%      0.05%     0.3%      0.025%   0.01%   0.02%
       High-chrome, low carbon ferro-chrome:
       HCr LCFeCr     min      max       max       max      max     max     max
       (min 76.5%     76.5%    0.035%    1.5%      0.025%   0.01%   0.05%   0.03%   -      -
       Cr)

       HCr LCFeCr     min      max       max       max      max     max     max     max    max
       (min 82% Cr)   82-      0.05%     1.5%      0.02%    0.01%   0.10%   0.02%   0.5%   0.3%
                      88%
       Low-carbon ferro-chrome, nitrided, molten

       LCFeCr N       ca.      max       max       max      max     3-4%    -       -      -
                      65%      0.10%     1.5%      0.03%    0.02%




Prabhash Gokarn                                                                                   4
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




                  Use of Low Carbon Ferro Chrome




Prabhash Gokarn                                                  5
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




Prabhash Gokarn                                               6
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




                    Production Process




Prabhash Gokarn                                               7
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts


         Low-carbon ferro-chrome is generally produced by the
         three-stage Perrin process.

         In the first stage, ferrosilicochrome is produced in a
         submerged arc furnace, either by direct melting of ore,
         quartz and coke, or by smelting high-carbon ferro-chrome
         with quartz and coke. The ferrosilicochrome produced
         grades 25-36%Cr, 42-48%Si and around 0.05%C.


         A lime-ore melt is then produced from chrome ore and
         burnt lime in an open arc furnace.

         Finally, the ferro silico chrome is reacted with the molten
         lime-ore and the silica reduces chrome oxide to yield low-
         carbon ferro-chrome.



Prabhash Gokarn                                                        8
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts

             Three-
             Three-stage Perrin process for LC FeCr




                                                         2
                             1




                                                              3




Prabhash Gokarn                                                   9
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




                  Supply Demand Scenario

                        Low Carbon FeCr




Prabhash Gokarn                                                10
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts

        LC FeCr : AOD Process saw LC FeCr demand plunge




               AOD
             process
                for
             Stainless
               Steel




Prabhash Gokarn                                ………….. and now growing
                                                                  11
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts



             LC FeCr : Now Increasing - reasons

      Based on the trends in finished steel production, the largest markets for
      chromium in carbon steel are China, Japan, USA, Russia and Germany.

      The use of low-carbon ferro-chrome is higher in carbon steel than in
      other types of steel.

      The content of sulphur in high-carbon ferro-chrome is too high to enable
      its use in AISI 10 series carbon steel.

      The growing demand for clean steel is reflected in higher consumption
      of high-purity low-carbon ferro-chrome.




Prabhash Gokarn                                                               12
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts



         LC FeCr : Initially Dipped and Now Increasing




Prabhash Gokarn                                               13
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts



                  LC & MC FeCr Supply Demand Gap




Prabhash Gokarn                                                 14
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts


              Demand Comes Mainly From Countries
              Making High Performance Alloy Steels

                                        Others
                              Asia       7%
                              8%




                  Europe                                               USA
                   27%                                                 58%




Prabhash Gokarn                                                              15
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts



                   Demand Comes Mainly From Sectors
                   Using High Performance Alloy Steels
                                Tools
                                 2%
                    Oil & gas
                                                                        Aerospace
                        2%
                                                                           75%
             Automotive
                6%




      Land-based turbines
             15%




Prabhash Gokarn                                                                     16
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




                  Impacting On Price of

                       Low Carbon FeCr




Prabhash Gokarn                                               17
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts



                    LC FeCr Steep Rise in Prices




Prabhash Gokarn                                               18
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts
           Low carbon Ferro Chrome Supply Scene




Prabhash Gokarn                                               19
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




           Caused by both rising demand for
           LC FeCr and rising production cost




Prabhash Gokarn                                               20
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts
                  Production Costs For Ferro-chrome
        Energy and raw material costs together, make up a large proportion of the
        cost of LC ferro-chrome production, varying locally with power tariffs and the
        availability of raw materials. Efficiency varies with ore grade, operating
        conditions and the production process. Therefore the location of a ferro-
        chrome plant is a trade-off between the supply and cost of raw materials and
        electrical energy.

        The results of an Outokumpu study published by USGS in 2006 suggest that
        production costs in Europe are split approximately 30% chrome ore,40%
        electricity, 20% reducing agent and 10% other costs.

        South African producers have traditionally had some of the lowest production
        costs for ferro-chrome worldwide, because of the advantages of abundant
        chrome ore reserves, locally available reductants, and competitive labour and
        power costs.

        South African energy prices have historically been very low in comparison to
        other ferro-chrome producing countries but increases in electricity costs
        (13.3% in 2008; 27.5% in 2009. 20-25% in 2010.



Prabhash Gokarn                                                                    21
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




                  Main Producers of L C FeCr




Prabhash Gokarn                                                 22
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts

                 Production of ferro-silico-chrome
        Production of ferro-silico-chrome, used as an intermediate product in the
        production of low-carbon ferro-chrome, by leading industry commentators.
        Production, broken down by country is given below. Production has increased
        year on year, following the pattern of low-carbon ferro-chrome production.

                                    Production of ferro-silico-chrome, 2002 to 2008 (t)
                                  2002        2003           2004        2005         2006      2007      2008e
     Brazil                     10,522       8,151        11,560      16,005         9,828    12,943     13,000
     China                      43,492      97,552      105,000       48,000       35,000     38,700     39,000
     Kazakhstan                 75,345      86,794        78,850      84,885      104,000    126,000    156,000r
     Russiae                     3,328       6,121          8,483     74,150       92,404     97,915     98,000
     Turkey                      7,245       6,715          5,560       6,695        7,310     6,624      6,500
     Zimbabwe                        -            -             -       2,117        1,023     3,097      3,000
     Total                     139,932    205,333       209,453      231,852      249,565    285,279    315,500


                         World ferro-silico-chrome production: Comparison of available data,
                                                      2002 to 2008 (t)
                                      2002       2003     2004       2005         2006       2007      2008
                  Optimistic      139,932 205,333 209,453 231,852 249,565 285,279 315,500
                  ICDA            133,884 205,489 209,453 232,530 246,958 285,279 252,740
                  BCG             224,421 274,200 311,245 248,280 283,959      …       …




Prabhash Gokarn                                                                                               23
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts



                     LC & MC FeCr Production By Country

         World: Production of low-carbon and medium-carbon ferro-chrome by country, 2001-2008
                                                   (kt)
                                  2001    2002    2003     2004    2005  2006   2007 2008e
         Brazil                    7.5      4.5   10.4     19.1    15.4  21.2    13.2     10.0
         China                    79.0   100.7   111.5    103.0   174.0 184.5  235.8    200.0
         Germany                  19.3    20.0    18.3     24.9    22.7  26.7    22.0     22.0
         India                       - 1     - 1        -       -     -     -        -       -
         Japan2                    7.7      4.3     5.8     7.8    10.4   9.7    11.8     11.0
         Khaz                     56.7    59.8    68.6     71.6    71.7  77.0    77.0 142.0r
         Russia/Ukraine          148.6   142.9   181.2    196.6   216.6 196.5  219.4    150.0
         Slovakia                  0.6      0.8       - 1     - 1     -     -        -       -
         South Africa            106.1   109.7   101.7    110.5    76.0  76.0    91.0     90.0
         Turkey                    9.3     11.2   10.8      8.7    10.5  12.1    10.9     10.0
         Zimbabwe                  6.3         -        -       -     -     -        -       -
         Total                   441.1   453.9   508.3    542.2   597.3 603.7  681.1    635.0
         % total FeCr               10        9       9       8       9     9       8        8
         production




Prabhash Gokarn                                                                            24
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts


                    LC FeCr by country
      700


      600


      500


      400


      300


      200


      100


        0
             2001   2002     2003      2004         2005    2006       2007   2008e

                    China   Russia   South Africa    Kazakhstan    Others




Prabhash Gokarn                                                                       25
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




                               Backup

             Specifications of Refined FeCr




Prabhash Gokarn                                               26
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts


                            Specifications for low-carbon ferro-chrome (%)

                      Low-carbon            Low- nitrogen   High- chromium Nitrided, molten

  Cr (min)         68-73        68-73             69          76.5     82-88     ~65

  C (max)         0.03-0.10 0.015-0.03           0.05        0.035     0.05      0.10

  Si (max)          1.5          1.5              0.3         1.5       1.5       1.5

  P (max)           0.03        0.03             0.025       0.025     0.020     0.03

  S (max)           0.02        0.02             0.010       0.010     0.01      0.02

  N (max)            …           …               0.020        0.05     0.10       3-4

  Co (max)           …           …                …           0.03     0.020      …

  Mn (max)           …           …                …            …        0.5       …

  V (max)            …           …                …            …        0.3       …




Prabhash Gokarn                                                                         27
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts




                       ASTM specifications for low carbon chromium ferroalloys (%)
   Grade                                  Cr          C        Si        S            P      N
                                                              max       max          max    max
   Low-carbon ferro-chrome
    A                                    60-67    0.025       1-8      0.025         0.03   0.12
    B                                    67-75    0.025        1       0.025         0.03   0.12
    C                                    67-75    0.05         1       0.025         0.03   0.12
    D                                    67-75    0.75         1       0.025         0.03   0.12
   Vacuum low-carbon ferro-chrome
    E                                    67-72    0.02         2        0.03         0.03   0.05
    F                                    67-72    0.01         2        0.03         0.03   0.05
    G                                    63-68    0.05         2        0.03         0.03   5-6
   Nitrogen-bearing ferro-chrome         62-70    0.1          1       0.025         0.03   1-5




Prabhash Gokarn                                                                              28
Low Carbon Ferro Chrome – Random Thoughts


                                   Alloy Analysis



           TYPICAL ANALYSES
           TYPE OF ALLOY
                                    % Cr     %C       %Si        Cr:C    Cr:Si
           Special Low Carbon       >90      <0.01    0.4        9 000   225
           Low Carbon               55-68    0.05     0.7        1 200   85
           Charge Chrome            50       7.5      3.5        7       15
           Plasma Chrome            50-58    8.0      1.8        7       30




Prabhash Gokarn                                                                  29

Refined Ferro Chrome

  • 1.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Refined Ferro Chrome Analysis Of The Market For Low & Medium Carbon Ferro Chrome Prabhash Gokarn Prabhash Gokarn 1
  • 2.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Presentation Structure • Analysis of Refined FeCr 3 • Use of Low Carbon Ferro Chrome 5 • Production Process 7 • Supply Demand Scenario 10 • Impacting On Price 17 • Rising demand & rising cost 18 • Main Producers 22 • Specifications of Ref FeCr 26 Prabhash Gokarn 2
  • 3.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Analysis of Refined FeCr Prabhash Gokarn 3
  • 4.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Low-carbon ferro-chrome product range Cr C Si P S N Co Mn V Low-carbon ferro-chrome: LCFeCr 68- 0.03- max max max - - - - 73% 0.10% 1.5% 0.03% 0.02% 68- 0.015- max max max - - - - 73% 0.03% 1.5% 0.03% 0.02% LN LCFeCr Min max max max max max - - - 69% 0.05% 0.3% 0.025% 0.01% 0.02% High-chrome, low carbon ferro-chrome: HCr LCFeCr min max max max max max max (min 76.5% 76.5% 0.035% 1.5% 0.025% 0.01% 0.05% 0.03% - - Cr) HCr LCFeCr min max max max max max max max max (min 82% Cr) 82- 0.05% 1.5% 0.02% 0.01% 0.10% 0.02% 0.5% 0.3% 88% Low-carbon ferro-chrome, nitrided, molten LCFeCr N ca. max max max max 3-4% - - - 65% 0.10% 1.5% 0.03% 0.02% Prabhash Gokarn 4
  • 5.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Use of Low Carbon Ferro Chrome Prabhash Gokarn 5
  • 6.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Prabhash Gokarn 6
  • 7.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Production Process Prabhash Gokarn 7
  • 8.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Low-carbon ferro-chrome is generally produced by the three-stage Perrin process. In the first stage, ferrosilicochrome is produced in a submerged arc furnace, either by direct melting of ore, quartz and coke, or by smelting high-carbon ferro-chrome with quartz and coke. The ferrosilicochrome produced grades 25-36%Cr, 42-48%Si and around 0.05%C. A lime-ore melt is then produced from chrome ore and burnt lime in an open arc furnace. Finally, the ferro silico chrome is reacted with the molten lime-ore and the silica reduces chrome oxide to yield low- carbon ferro-chrome. Prabhash Gokarn 8
  • 9.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Three- Three-stage Perrin process for LC FeCr 2 1 3 Prabhash Gokarn 9
  • 10.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Supply Demand Scenario Low Carbon FeCr Prabhash Gokarn 10
  • 11.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts LC FeCr : AOD Process saw LC FeCr demand plunge AOD process for Stainless Steel Prabhash Gokarn ………….. and now growing 11
  • 12.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts LC FeCr : Now Increasing - reasons Based on the trends in finished steel production, the largest markets for chromium in carbon steel are China, Japan, USA, Russia and Germany. The use of low-carbon ferro-chrome is higher in carbon steel than in other types of steel. The content of sulphur in high-carbon ferro-chrome is too high to enable its use in AISI 10 series carbon steel. The growing demand for clean steel is reflected in higher consumption of high-purity low-carbon ferro-chrome. Prabhash Gokarn 12
  • 13.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts LC FeCr : Initially Dipped and Now Increasing Prabhash Gokarn 13
  • 14.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts LC & MC FeCr Supply Demand Gap Prabhash Gokarn 14
  • 15.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Demand Comes Mainly From Countries Making High Performance Alloy Steels Others Asia 7% 8% Europe USA 27% 58% Prabhash Gokarn 15
  • 16.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Demand Comes Mainly From Sectors Using High Performance Alloy Steels Tools 2% Oil & gas Aerospace 2% 75% Automotive 6% Land-based turbines 15% Prabhash Gokarn 16
  • 17.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Impacting On Price of Low Carbon FeCr Prabhash Gokarn 17
  • 18.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts LC FeCr Steep Rise in Prices Prabhash Gokarn 18
  • 19.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Low carbon Ferro Chrome Supply Scene Prabhash Gokarn 19
  • 20.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Caused by both rising demand for LC FeCr and rising production cost Prabhash Gokarn 20
  • 21.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Production Costs For Ferro-chrome Energy and raw material costs together, make up a large proportion of the cost of LC ferro-chrome production, varying locally with power tariffs and the availability of raw materials. Efficiency varies with ore grade, operating conditions and the production process. Therefore the location of a ferro- chrome plant is a trade-off between the supply and cost of raw materials and electrical energy. The results of an Outokumpu study published by USGS in 2006 suggest that production costs in Europe are split approximately 30% chrome ore,40% electricity, 20% reducing agent and 10% other costs. South African producers have traditionally had some of the lowest production costs for ferro-chrome worldwide, because of the advantages of abundant chrome ore reserves, locally available reductants, and competitive labour and power costs. South African energy prices have historically been very low in comparison to other ferro-chrome producing countries but increases in electricity costs (13.3% in 2008; 27.5% in 2009. 20-25% in 2010. Prabhash Gokarn 21
  • 22.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Main Producers of L C FeCr Prabhash Gokarn 22
  • 23.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Production of ferro-silico-chrome Production of ferro-silico-chrome, used as an intermediate product in the production of low-carbon ferro-chrome, by leading industry commentators. Production, broken down by country is given below. Production has increased year on year, following the pattern of low-carbon ferro-chrome production. Production of ferro-silico-chrome, 2002 to 2008 (t) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e Brazil 10,522 8,151 11,560 16,005 9,828 12,943 13,000 China 43,492 97,552 105,000 48,000 35,000 38,700 39,000 Kazakhstan 75,345 86,794 78,850 84,885 104,000 126,000 156,000r Russiae 3,328 6,121 8,483 74,150 92,404 97,915 98,000 Turkey 7,245 6,715 5,560 6,695 7,310 6,624 6,500 Zimbabwe - - - 2,117 1,023 3,097 3,000 Total 139,932 205,333 209,453 231,852 249,565 285,279 315,500 World ferro-silico-chrome production: Comparison of available data, 2002 to 2008 (t) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Optimistic 139,932 205,333 209,453 231,852 249,565 285,279 315,500 ICDA 133,884 205,489 209,453 232,530 246,958 285,279 252,740 BCG 224,421 274,200 311,245 248,280 283,959 … … Prabhash Gokarn 23
  • 24.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts LC & MC FeCr Production By Country World: Production of low-carbon and medium-carbon ferro-chrome by country, 2001-2008 (kt) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e Brazil 7.5 4.5 10.4 19.1 15.4 21.2 13.2 10.0 China 79.0 100.7 111.5 103.0 174.0 184.5 235.8 200.0 Germany 19.3 20.0 18.3 24.9 22.7 26.7 22.0 22.0 India - 1 - 1 - - - - - - Japan2 7.7 4.3 5.8 7.8 10.4 9.7 11.8 11.0 Khaz 56.7 59.8 68.6 71.6 71.7 77.0 77.0 142.0r Russia/Ukraine 148.6 142.9 181.2 196.6 216.6 196.5 219.4 150.0 Slovakia 0.6 0.8 - 1 - 1 - - - - South Africa 106.1 109.7 101.7 110.5 76.0 76.0 91.0 90.0 Turkey 9.3 11.2 10.8 8.7 10.5 12.1 10.9 10.0 Zimbabwe 6.3 - - - - - - - Total 441.1 453.9 508.3 542.2 597.3 603.7 681.1 635.0 % total FeCr 10 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 production Prabhash Gokarn 24
  • 25.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts LC FeCr by country 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e China Russia South Africa Kazakhstan Others Prabhash Gokarn 25
  • 26.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Backup Specifications of Refined FeCr Prabhash Gokarn 26
  • 27.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Specifications for low-carbon ferro-chrome (%) Low-carbon Low- nitrogen High- chromium Nitrided, molten Cr (min) 68-73 68-73 69 76.5 82-88 ~65 C (max) 0.03-0.10 0.015-0.03 0.05 0.035 0.05 0.10 Si (max) 1.5 1.5 0.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 P (max) 0.03 0.03 0.025 0.025 0.020 0.03 S (max) 0.02 0.02 0.010 0.010 0.01 0.02 N (max) … … 0.020 0.05 0.10 3-4 Co (max) … … … 0.03 0.020 … Mn (max) … … … … 0.5 … V (max) … … … … 0.3 … Prabhash Gokarn 27
  • 28.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts ASTM specifications for low carbon chromium ferroalloys (%) Grade Cr C Si S P N max max max max Low-carbon ferro-chrome A 60-67 0.025 1-8 0.025 0.03 0.12 B 67-75 0.025 1 0.025 0.03 0.12 C 67-75 0.05 1 0.025 0.03 0.12 D 67-75 0.75 1 0.025 0.03 0.12 Vacuum low-carbon ferro-chrome E 67-72 0.02 2 0.03 0.03 0.05 F 67-72 0.01 2 0.03 0.03 0.05 G 63-68 0.05 2 0.03 0.03 5-6 Nitrogen-bearing ferro-chrome 62-70 0.1 1 0.025 0.03 1-5 Prabhash Gokarn 28
  • 29.
    Low Carbon FerroChrome – Random Thoughts Alloy Analysis TYPICAL ANALYSES TYPE OF ALLOY % Cr %C %Si Cr:C Cr:Si Special Low Carbon >90 <0.01 0.4 9 000 225 Low Carbon 55-68 0.05 0.7 1 200 85 Charge Chrome 50 7.5 3.5 7 15 Plasma Chrome 50-58 8.0 1.8 7 30 Prabhash Gokarn 29