The document discusses Ray Kurzweil's view that information technologies are advancing exponentially according to the Law of Accelerating Returns. Kurzweil argues that this will enable technologies like nanobots, neural implants and virtual reality to merge human and machine intelligence by 2029. However, some critics argue that the complexity of the brain or limits of computation mean strong AI is impossible. Kurzweil responds that we are overcoming these limits through technologies like brain reverse-engineering and quantum computing.
Give a background of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, to better understand the current state of the art (SOTA) for Large Language Models (LLMs) and Generative AI. Then start a discussion on the direction things are going in the future.
With the advancement in technology there is a great impact of technology on human lives . It effects major part of our life or more. It not only have positive side but also a darker side which one can have ever though.
have a look at above slides and find out , It is bane or boon
9 Examples of Artificial Intelligence in Use TodayIQVIS
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the branch of computer sciences that emphasizes the development of intelligence machines, thinking and working like humans.
Industry analysts argue that artificial intelligence is the future – but if we look around, we are convinced that it’s not the future – it is the present. The given examples will explain the true meaning and context.
Read as a blog post here. http://www.iqvis.com/blog/9-powerful-examples-of-artificial-intelligence-in-use-today/
AI driven automation will create wealth and expand economies. Find out the views of the Executive Office of the US President in this AI Government led initiative.
Give a background of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, to better understand the current state of the art (SOTA) for Large Language Models (LLMs) and Generative AI. Then start a discussion on the direction things are going in the future.
With the advancement in technology there is a great impact of technology on human lives . It effects major part of our life or more. It not only have positive side but also a darker side which one can have ever though.
have a look at above slides and find out , It is bane or boon
9 Examples of Artificial Intelligence in Use TodayIQVIS
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the branch of computer sciences that emphasizes the development of intelligence machines, thinking and working like humans.
Industry analysts argue that artificial intelligence is the future – but if we look around, we are convinced that it’s not the future – it is the present. The given examples will explain the true meaning and context.
Read as a blog post here. http://www.iqvis.com/blog/9-powerful-examples-of-artificial-intelligence-in-use-today/
AI driven automation will create wealth and expand economies. Find out the views of the Executive Office of the US President in this AI Government led initiative.
A Theory of Knowledge Lecture given by Mark Steed, Director of JESS Dubai on Monday 4th March 2019
The lecture explains how AI works and then looks at some of the ethical implications
From embodied Artificial Intelligence to Artificial LifeKrzysztof Pomorski
The methodological stages presented in embodied Artificial Intelligence are given. Systematically we broaden the concept AI so finally we can approach systems related to Artificial Life.
We live in a world of rapid technology driven change. IoT is one such wave of change that will have a huge impact across many industries. What is it? Why does it matter? How does it work? What is Artificial Intelligence's role in IoT? What are the dangers? What to watch for?
As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to advance and become more integrated into our daily lives, it has become increasingly important to consider the ethical implications of this technology. AI has the potential to transform many industries and improve our lives in numerous ways, but it also raises important ethical questions.
In this presentation, the ethical concerns surrounding AI are explored and discussed, with a focus on the need for ethical guidelines to be developed for AI development and use. We will examine issues such as privacy, bias, transparency, accountability, and the impact on jobs and society as a whole.
Through this exploration, we will consider the various perspectives on these issues and weigh the benefits and drawbacks of different ethical approaches to AI. We will also examine some of the current efforts being made to address these concerns, including the development of ethical frameworks and best practices.
The most important goal of this presentation is to disseminate a deeper understanding of the ethical considerations surrounding AI and the need for ethical guidelines to ensure that this technology is developed and used in a way that benefits all of us while respecting our values and principles.
Every single security company is talking about how they are using machine learning—as a security company you have to claim artificial intelligence to be even part of the conversation. However, this approach can be dangerous when we blindly rely on algorithms to do the right thing. Rather than building systems with actual security knowledge, companies are using algorithms that nobody understands and, in turn, discovering wrong insights.
In this session, we will discuss:
• Limitations of machine learning and issues of explainability
• Where deep learning should never be applied
• Examples of how the blind application of algorithms can lead to wrong results
These slides show that the demand for most professions is growing steadily in spite of continued improvements in productivity enhancing tools for them. They also show that AI will have a largely incremental effect on the professions, in combination with Moore's Law, cloud computing, and Big Data. They do this accounting, legal, architects, journalists, and engineers.
Artificial intelligence is already all around you, from web search to video games. AI methods plan your driving directions, filter your spam, and focus your cameras on faces.
Human intelligence is the intellectual powers of humans, Learning
Decision Making
Solve Problems
Feelings(Love,Happy,Angry)
Understand
Apply logic
Experience
making a computer, a computer-controlled robot, or a software think intelligently, in the similar manner the intelligent humans think.
Robots are autonomous or semi-autonomous machines meaning that they can act independently of external commands. Artificial intelligence is software that learns and self-improves.
Why Artificial Intelligence?
• Computers can do computations, by fixed programmed rules
• A.I machines perform tedious tasks efficiently & reliably.
• computers can’t understanding & adapting to new situations.
• A.I aims to improve machine to do such complex tasks.
Advantages of A.I:
Error Reduction
Difficult Exploration(mining & exploration processes)
Daily Application(Siri, Cortana)
Digital Assistants(interact with users)
Medical Applications(Radiosurgery)
Repetitive Jobs(monotonous)
No Breaks
Some disadvantages of A.I:
High Cost
Unemployment
Weaponization
No Replicating Humans
No Original Creativity
No Improvement with Experience
Safety/Privacy Issues
Artificial intelligence will be a Greatest invention Until Machines under the human control. Otherwise The new ERA will be There…..!
What is Artificial Intelligence | Artificial Intelligence Tutorial For Beginn...Edureka!
** Machine Learning Engineer Masters Program: https://www.edureka.co/masters-program/machine-learning-engineer-training **
This tutorial on Artificial Intelligence gives you a brief introduction to AI discussing how it can be a threat as well as useful. This tutorial covers the following topics:
1. AI as a threat
2. What is AI?
3. History of AI
4. Machine Learning & Deep Learning examples
5. Dependency on AI
6.Applications of AI
7. AI Course at Edureka - https://goo.gl/VWNeAu
For more information, please write back to us at sales@edureka.co
Call us at IN: 9606058406 / US: 18338555775
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/edurekaIN/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/edurekain
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/edureka
Neuromorphic Chipsets - Industry Adoption AnalysisNetscribes
The concept of emulating neurons on a chip could enhance complex operations to make business decisions secure and cost-effective. Parallel connected neurons can boost AI verticals compared with the conventional processing systems. Non-stop learning and pattern recognition using this human brain architecture can help compute signals and data in the form of visual, speech, olfactory, etc., to perform real-time operations as well as predict outcomes based on detected patterns. Neuromorphic chipsets can also enhance performance owing to their low-power consumption to process AI algorithms.
Based on patent data, this report analyzes the ongoing R&D and investments in neuromorphic chipsets by major institutions across the globe to reveal the top innovators and technology leaders in this space.
For the full report, contact info@netscribes.com
Visit www.netscribes.com
A Theory of Knowledge Lecture given by Mark Steed, Director of JESS Dubai on Monday 4th March 2019
The lecture explains how AI works and then looks at some of the ethical implications
From embodied Artificial Intelligence to Artificial LifeKrzysztof Pomorski
The methodological stages presented in embodied Artificial Intelligence are given. Systematically we broaden the concept AI so finally we can approach systems related to Artificial Life.
We live in a world of rapid technology driven change. IoT is one such wave of change that will have a huge impact across many industries. What is it? Why does it matter? How does it work? What is Artificial Intelligence's role in IoT? What are the dangers? What to watch for?
As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to advance and become more integrated into our daily lives, it has become increasingly important to consider the ethical implications of this technology. AI has the potential to transform many industries and improve our lives in numerous ways, but it also raises important ethical questions.
In this presentation, the ethical concerns surrounding AI are explored and discussed, with a focus on the need for ethical guidelines to be developed for AI development and use. We will examine issues such as privacy, bias, transparency, accountability, and the impact on jobs and society as a whole.
Through this exploration, we will consider the various perspectives on these issues and weigh the benefits and drawbacks of different ethical approaches to AI. We will also examine some of the current efforts being made to address these concerns, including the development of ethical frameworks and best practices.
The most important goal of this presentation is to disseminate a deeper understanding of the ethical considerations surrounding AI and the need for ethical guidelines to ensure that this technology is developed and used in a way that benefits all of us while respecting our values and principles.
Every single security company is talking about how they are using machine learning—as a security company you have to claim artificial intelligence to be even part of the conversation. However, this approach can be dangerous when we blindly rely on algorithms to do the right thing. Rather than building systems with actual security knowledge, companies are using algorithms that nobody understands and, in turn, discovering wrong insights.
In this session, we will discuss:
• Limitations of machine learning and issues of explainability
• Where deep learning should never be applied
• Examples of how the blind application of algorithms can lead to wrong results
These slides show that the demand for most professions is growing steadily in spite of continued improvements in productivity enhancing tools for them. They also show that AI will have a largely incremental effect on the professions, in combination with Moore's Law, cloud computing, and Big Data. They do this accounting, legal, architects, journalists, and engineers.
Artificial intelligence is already all around you, from web search to video games. AI methods plan your driving directions, filter your spam, and focus your cameras on faces.
Human intelligence is the intellectual powers of humans, Learning
Decision Making
Solve Problems
Feelings(Love,Happy,Angry)
Understand
Apply logic
Experience
making a computer, a computer-controlled robot, or a software think intelligently, in the similar manner the intelligent humans think.
Robots are autonomous or semi-autonomous machines meaning that they can act independently of external commands. Artificial intelligence is software that learns and self-improves.
Why Artificial Intelligence?
• Computers can do computations, by fixed programmed rules
• A.I machines perform tedious tasks efficiently & reliably.
• computers can’t understanding & adapting to new situations.
• A.I aims to improve machine to do such complex tasks.
Advantages of A.I:
Error Reduction
Difficult Exploration(mining & exploration processes)
Daily Application(Siri, Cortana)
Digital Assistants(interact with users)
Medical Applications(Radiosurgery)
Repetitive Jobs(monotonous)
No Breaks
Some disadvantages of A.I:
High Cost
Unemployment
Weaponization
No Replicating Humans
No Original Creativity
No Improvement with Experience
Safety/Privacy Issues
Artificial intelligence will be a Greatest invention Until Machines under the human control. Otherwise The new ERA will be There…..!
What is Artificial Intelligence | Artificial Intelligence Tutorial For Beginn...Edureka!
** Machine Learning Engineer Masters Program: https://www.edureka.co/masters-program/machine-learning-engineer-training **
This tutorial on Artificial Intelligence gives you a brief introduction to AI discussing how it can be a threat as well as useful. This tutorial covers the following topics:
1. AI as a threat
2. What is AI?
3. History of AI
4. Machine Learning & Deep Learning examples
5. Dependency on AI
6.Applications of AI
7. AI Course at Edureka - https://goo.gl/VWNeAu
For more information, please write back to us at sales@edureka.co
Call us at IN: 9606058406 / US: 18338555775
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/edurekaIN/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/edurekain
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/edureka
Neuromorphic Chipsets - Industry Adoption AnalysisNetscribes
The concept of emulating neurons on a chip could enhance complex operations to make business decisions secure and cost-effective. Parallel connected neurons can boost AI verticals compared with the conventional processing systems. Non-stop learning and pattern recognition using this human brain architecture can help compute signals and data in the form of visual, speech, olfactory, etc., to perform real-time operations as well as predict outcomes based on detected patterns. Neuromorphic chipsets can also enhance performance owing to their low-power consumption to process AI algorithms.
Based on patent data, this report analyzes the ongoing R&D and investments in neuromorphic chipsets by major institutions across the globe to reveal the top innovators and technology leaders in this space.
For the full report, contact info@netscribes.com
Visit www.netscribes.com
Intellectual property, traceability and the counterfeiting of 3D printable objects
3D Robust Blind Watermarking : A tool for 3D copyrighted printing?
Benoit Macq and Patrice Rondão Alface - ICL-ICTEAM
nanobio technology drug delivery robot Microbivores ppt ROHIT SAGAR
It is a nano robot used to kill pathogens and used to deliver the drug to required part of our body without effecting to any other part rather than infected part
This ppt contains all the details of Stereoscopic imaging. It includes from history, introduction, its working technique, 3D viewers, 3D cameras, future scope, advantages, disadvantages. In all, its the complete stuff that can satisfy anyone.
From Social Networks to Artificial Neural Networks. How NeuroMorphic Computation will Solve the big problems of Big Data and the Internet of Things, in the age of PostProgrraming
The Singularity: Toward a Post-Human RealityLarry Smarr
06.02.13
Talk to UCSD's Sixth College
Honor's Course on Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near
Title: The Singularity: Toward a Post-Human Reality
La Jolla, CA
Biomolecular engineer receives $1.5M to build energy-efficient computer out o...Steve Scansaroli
Biomolecular engineer receives $1.5M to build energy-efficient computer out of yeast cells https://hub.jhu.edu/2018/07/17/yeast-computers-biomolecular-engineering/
Mexico's first mobile exclusive Micro-Lending service. With fast approval, less than 15 minutes and 24/7 availability we are offering money when needed.
No contract, paperwork or forms to sign.
Downloading mobiLender App (Available for Android and iOS), is everything you need to do.
Follow our 5 steps verification and you are good to go.
Edit
A presentation about the mobilpay.com service developed and operated by NETOPIA in Romania. currently mobilpay.com performs more than 35k transactions a month with a turnover of 250k Euro.
the presentation is in romanian language
Search and Society: Reimagining Information Access for Radical FuturesBhaskar Mitra
The field of Information retrieval (IR) is currently undergoing a transformative shift, at least partly due to the emerging applications of generative AI to information access. In this talk, we will deliberate on the sociotechnical implications of generative AI for information access. We will argue that there is both a critical necessity and an exciting opportunity for the IR community to re-center our research agendas on societal needs while dismantling the artificial separation between the work on fairness, accountability, transparency, and ethics in IR and the rest of IR research. Instead of adopting a reactionary strategy of trying to mitigate potential social harms from emerging technologies, the community should aim to proactively set the research agenda for the kinds of systems we should build inspired by diverse explicitly stated sociotechnical imaginaries. The sociotechnical imaginaries that underpin the design and development of information access technologies needs to be explicitly articulated, and we need to develop theories of change in context of these diverse perspectives. Our guiding future imaginaries must be informed by other academic fields, such as democratic theory and critical theory, and should be co-developed with social science scholars, legal scholars, civil rights and social justice activists, and artists, among others.
The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with ParametersSafe Software
Are you looking to streamline your workflows and boost your projects’ efficiency? Do you find yourself searching for ways to add flexibility and control over your FME workflows? If so, you’re in the right place.
Join us for an insightful dive into the world of FME parameters, a critical element in optimizing workflow efficiency. This webinar marks the beginning of our three-part “Essentials of Automation” series. This first webinar is designed to equip you with the knowledge and skills to utilize parameters effectively: enhancing the flexibility, maintainability, and user control of your FME projects.
Here’s what you’ll gain:
- Essentials of FME Parameters: Understand the pivotal role of parameters, including Reader/Writer, Transformer, User, and FME Flow categories. Discover how they are the key to unlocking automation and optimization within your workflows.
- Practical Applications in FME Form: Delve into key user parameter types including choice, connections, and file URLs. Allow users to control how a workflow runs, making your workflows more reusable. Learn to import values and deliver the best user experience for your workflows while enhancing accuracy.
- Optimization Strategies in FME Flow: Explore the creation and strategic deployment of parameters in FME Flow, including the use of deployment and geometry parameters, to maximize workflow efficiency.
- Pro Tips for Success: Gain insights on parameterizing connections and leveraging new features like Conditional Visibility for clarity and simplicity.
We’ll wrap up with a glimpse into future webinars, followed by a Q&A session to address your specific questions surrounding this topic.
Don’t miss this opportunity to elevate your FME expertise and drive your projects to new heights of efficiency.
Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey 2024 by 91mobiles.pdf91mobiles
91mobiles recently conducted a Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey in which we asked over 3,000 respondents about the TV they own, aspects they look at on a new TV, and their TV buying preferences.
Transcript: Selling digital books in 2024: Insights from industry leaders - T...BookNet Canada
The publishing industry has been selling digital audiobooks and ebooks for over a decade and has found its groove. What’s changed? What has stayed the same? Where do we go from here? Join a group of leading sales peers from across the industry for a conversation about the lessons learned since the popularization of digital books, best practices, digital book supply chain management, and more.
Link to video recording: https://bnctechforum.ca/sessions/selling-digital-books-in-2024-insights-from-industry-leaders/
Presented by BookNet Canada on May 28, 2024, with support from the Department of Canadian Heritage.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
"Impact of front-end architecture on development cost", Viktor TurskyiFwdays
I have heard many times that architecture is not important for the front-end. Also, many times I have seen how developers implement features on the front-end just following the standard rules for a framework and think that this is enough to successfully launch the project, and then the project fails. How to prevent this and what approach to choose? I have launched dozens of complex projects and during the talk we will analyze which approaches have worked for me and which have not.
16. Measure MIT’s IBM 7094 Notebook Circa 2003 Year Processor Speed (MIPS) Main Memory (K Bytes) Approximate Cost (2003 $) 1967 0.25 144 $11,000,000 2003 1,000 256,000 $2,000 24 Doublings of Price-Performance in 36 years, doubling time: 18 months not including vastly greater RAM memory, disk storage, instruction set, etc. A Personal Experience
61. “ Now, for the first time, we are observing the brain at work in a global manner with such clarity that we should be able to discover the overall programs behind its magnificent powers.” -- J.G. Taylor, B. Horwitz, K.J. Friston
100. Average Life Expectancy (Years) Cro Magnon 18 Ancient Egypt 25 1400 Europe 30 1800 Europe & U.S. 37 1900 U.S. 48 2002 U.S. 78
101. Reference URLs: Graphs available at: www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/Google/ Home of the Big Thinkers: www.KurzweilAI.net
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117. New York Times Op-Ed "Recipe for Destruction," by Ray Kurzweil and Bill Joy, October 17, 2005
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122. Graphs available at: www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/Google/ Home of the Big Thinkers: www.KurzweilAI.net Reference URLs:
Editor's Notes
Total U.S. cellphone subscribers has doubled about every 2.3 years. Of course, as the US market becomes saturated, we're seeing the domestic growth rate decline (as noted in logarithmic plot), but even as we approach 90% penetration (255 million subscribers/300 million population = 85%), the U.S. is still adding about 20 million subscribers per year (the country didn't have 20 million total subscribers until 1994).
Calculations per second per $1000 have been following a double exponential trend in the past century, and over that period have been doubling every 2.1 years.
From 1991 through 2008, peak performance of supercomputers has doubled about every year. IBM's Roadrunner in 2008 is more than 250,000 times more powerful than the top supercomputer in 1991 and more than 83 million times more powerful than the Cray-1 in 1983. Roadrunner is equivalent to 10% of my 10^16 flops estimate of a human brain. Various projects aim for a computer within the decade that will exceed the human brain's processing capabilities.
The number of transistors per microprocessor chip has been doubling every 23 months since 1971. The Itanium "Tukwila" ("The next Itanium chip"), due in late 2008 or early 2009, will have about one million times as many transistors as the 4004 chip had in 1971.
Since 1971's 4004 chip, processor performance has been doubling about every 21 months, rising 1.7 million-fold through 2007.
Since 1971, Dynamic RAM Memory cost per bit has halved every 1.9 years, dropping by a factor of about a half-million between 1971 and 2008--a double exponential. So for the cost of 200 bits in 1971, you can get around 112 million bits now in 2008.
Since 1950, the cost of RAM has halved every 20 months -- a 25-billion-fold drop. Since 1975, the pace of decline has accelerated, halving every year-and-a-half.
Average Transistor price has halved about every year-and-a-half since 1968, falling some 60-million-fold over the 40-year period from 1968 to 2008
DRAM "half pitch" feature size (the distance between cells on a DRAM chip) has halved every 5 years since the late 1960's, dropping by a factor of 200 over 39 years. ITRS projects this feature size will continue dropping at about this rate through the early 2020's.
Dynamic RAM Memory "Half Pitch" Feature Size shows a consistent halving time of 5.4 years in feature size over 55 years (16 of which are based on forecast data). The halving time is 5.2 years using only 1967-2004. History and big-picture from ITRS 2007, Page 63: "Historically, DRAM products have been recognized as the technology drivers for the entire semiconductor industry. Prior to the late-1990s, logic (as exemplified by MPU) technology moved at the same pace as DRAM technology, but after 2000/180 nm began moving at a slower 2.5-year technology cycle pace, while DRAM technology continued on the accelerated two-year pace. During the last few years, the development rate of new technologies used to manufacture microprocessors has continued on the 2.5-year pace, while DRAMs are now forecast to slow to a three-year cycle pace through the 2020 Roadmap horizon. By moving on the faster 2.5-year cycle pace, microprocessor products are closing the half-pitch technology gap with DRAM,"
Total bits of memory shipped has doubled about every year since 1971. In 2007, about 6 billion times more bits were shipped than in 1971; the number shipped in 2007 is about equal to all the shipments between 1971 and 2005. We're now shipping what was a generation's worth--20 years of bits--in one year.
As noted in SIN, growth in the price-performance of magnetic data storage is not a result of Moore's Law. This exponential trend reflects the squeezing of data onto a magnetic substrate, rather than transistors onto an integrated circuit, a completely different technical challenge pursued by different engineering and different companies. The price-performance has followed a Moore's-Law-like trend, doubling every 1.8 years since 1956. In that year, a dollar could buy 200 bits. In 2008, that same dollar could buy 66 billion bits, or over 300 million times more storage per dollar.
Sequencing cost per base pair has been halving every 1.3 years since 1971, falling by a factor of over 100 million between the 1970's and 2008. The pace of price decline has displayed a double-exponential trend, so that since 1998 the halving rate has accelerated to about every 8 months. What would have cost $100 in the mid-1970's, and about $10 in 1990 fell to a dime in 2000 and 2 thousandths of a penny in 2008.
From 1982 to mid-2008, the number of base pairs and the number of sequences in GenBank's database have grown by about 60% per year, doubling every 18 months.
Doubling time for U.S. Internet data traffic has decreased from 1 year in the last chart to 10 months, exponentially doubling every 10 months since 1990. It has increased about 1.25 million-fold since 1990.
The capacity of the internet backbone is experiencing double-exponential growth. Since 1979 it's grown nearly 1-million-fold, to 40 Gigabytes per Second as of 2006 [using SONET OC-768 equipment]. The growth rate itself is accelerating. It took 5 years to go from 2.5 gigabytes/second to 10 gigabytes/second. It only took 3 to quadruple again, to 40 gigabytes/second. So we're already at a doubling rate of every year-and-a-half, and accelerating.
Calculations per second per $1000 have been following a double exponential trend in the past century, and over that period have been doubling every 2.1 years.
Over the past 80 years, the US economy has been growing at 3.1% per year. Since that growth is compounding, it now takes us about 8 (optional: 3.5) years to grow what the entire economy was in 1946 (optional: 1929), when the US was considered a very rich country. You can see economic growth, too, is a series of s-curves, punctuated by semi-regular recessions, as the economy retools and changes direction. Like a runner who has to stop every so often to check the map. The dot-com or railroad bubbles might have been bad for many investors but bubbles tend to rapidly commercialize new technologies. So even the bad times are important for technological progress.
Here’s a chart of per-capita growth over the past 80 years. Income has been doubling about every generation, an unprecedented rate in history. What's driving this acceleration is productivity growth. New technologies and innovations allow us to use our hours more productively, as we trade our shovels for harvesters, our secretary pools for gmail, and our typewriters for word processors.
Output per hour in manufacturing, one of the critical factor that makes us richer, has been growing at a rate of 2.9% since 1949, a 24-year doubling rate. Since the mid-1990's, productivity growth has sped up, to nearly 4.2%, which would be a doubling rate of about 17 years.
Here's a chart showing patent applications to the USPTO (or, "US Patent and Trademark Office"). You can see the exponential growth.There was a brief dip during both world wars, since lots of R&D went into the military, and that doesn't get patented. There was also a prolonged dip during the depression, since corporate R&D is sensitive to economic conditions. You can see that since the 1980's, we've had a real take-off in applications, suggesting a speed-up in innovation (this is clear with either linear and semi-log).
Annual PV production has been doubling every 2 years since 1996, a 40% CAGR. The growth rate has been double-exponential growth, itself doubling every 9 years.
Annual PV production has been doubling every 2 years since 1996, a 40% CAGR. The growth rate has been double-exponential growth, itself doubling every 9 years.
Since 1995, worldwide growth in PV production has been 37% per year. China and Taiwan have seen growth of over 100% per year, going from 1.7% of world production to nearly 22%. The US has actually been the slowest major economy, with 17% CAGR over the period, unsurprising since so much technology manufacturing is basing in Asia. (sidenote: US growth has NOT been double-exponential, though worldwide growth has been double-exponential.)
Since 2000, the main solar markets have seen exponential growth. Japan, the most mature market in 2000, has seen the lowest growth, a still-healthy 27% CAGR (doubling rate of under 3 years). Germany, and Europe in general, has seen annual growth rates in excess of 60%, a doubling rate of around 11-17 months, spurred by government subsidies as well as by high utility rates. The US, at a 48% CAGR, and a doubling rate of just under 2 years, comes in between the two. (sidenote: none are double-exponential; perhaps we're at an S-curve on penetration)
In the past 30 years, there has been a 26-fold reduction in the price per watt of solar modules, and this reduction in price has displayed an exponential trend downwards, halving every 6-and-a-half years (6.6y).