This document discusses Ray Kurzweil's view that technological progress follows an exponential rather than linear growth, as seen through various technologies like computing, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. It argues that within a few decades, non-biological intelligence will match and exceed human intelligence through continued exponential growth, leading to merging with human intelligence via neural implants and other means.

1. Ray Kurzweil 2010

3. Technology Getting Smaller knfbReader Mobile (2008) Kurzweil Reading Machine (Circa 1979) MIT Lincoln Laboratory (1962)

4. The Law of Accelerating Returns An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view.

5. The Law of Accelerating Returns So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21 st century – it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).

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9. The Six Epochs Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability and then uses that capability to evolve the next stage.

10. THE PARADIGM SHIFT RATE IS NOW DOUBLING ABOUT EVERY DECADE

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12. Exponential vs Linear Growth The same exponential sequence of S-curves on a logarithmic plot An ongoing exponential sequence made up of a cascade of S-curves on a linear plot Linear vs Exponential Growth

13. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS) DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH) EVERY YEAR

14. A Personal Experience Measure MIT’s IBM 7094 Notebook Circa 2003 Year Processor Speed (MIPS) Main Memory (K Bytes) Approximate Cost (2003 $) 1967 0.25 144 $11,000,000 2003 1,000 256,000 $2,000 24 Doublings of Price-Performance in 36 years, doubling time: 18 months not including vastly greater RAM memory, disk storage, instruction set, etc.

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25. EVERY FORM OF COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY (PRICE - PERFORMANCE, BANDWIDTH, CAPACITY) IS DOUBLING ABOUT EVERY 12 MONTHS

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32. The exponential growth of computing is a marvelous quantitative example of the exponentially growing returns from an evolutionary process. We can express the exponential growth of computing in terms of its accelerating pace: it took 90 years to achieve the first MIPS per 1000 dollars; now we add 1.2 MIPS per 1000 dollars every hour. Year Logarithmic Plot

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36. Cerebral Cortex Simulation Images

37. Five Parallel Auditory Pathways

38. “ Now, for the first time, we are observing the brain at work in a global manner with such clarity that we should be able to discover the overall programs behind its magnificent powers.” -- J.G. Taylor, B. Horwitz, K.J. Friston

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68. Average Life Expectancy (Years) Cro Magnon 18 Ancient Egypt 25 1400 Europe 30 1800 Europe & U.S. 37 1900 U.S. 48 2002 U.S. 78

85. New York Times Op-Ed "Recipe for Destruction," by Ray Kurzweil and Bill Joy, October 17, 2005