The document summarizes the threats posed by environmental degradation and climate change, including accelerating glacier melt, rising sea levels, and failing states. It argues that the current economic model fails to incorporate environmental costs, treating issues like fossil fuel subsidies as deserved. If China and India achieve the same consumption levels as Western nations, it would overwhelm global resources. The author calls for transitioning to a renewable energy and recycling-based economy to avert looming tipping points and protect civilization.

1. Chapter 1 - Entering a new worldScientists horrified by glacier melt accelerationIn 10 years projected rise in sea levels went from 1.5’ to 6’ by century’s end – 4X UNDERESTIMATEIce flow speed exceeds anything the scientists imaginedAsia’s primary glacier is melting faster than imaginable – could disappear in decadesAsia’s glaciers are Asia’s Agricultural Reservoir

2. Nature is the Timekeeper, and were out of time.shrinking forests expanding deserts falling water tables collapsing fisheries disappearing species rising temperaturesGreenland Ice Sheet melt rises see 23’W. Antarctic Ice Sheet melt rises 19’

3. 33’ Sea level rise – 6oo million refugees - twice US population

4. Time is up – race between scientific and political tipping pointsWill Greenland melting become irreversible?Or will we phase out coal power plants fast enough?

5. There are many environmental tipping pointsWater is running out world wideWill we stabilize population?Or watch death and wars over water?Demographic trap – Poverty begets population growth and Population growth begets povertyCountries collapse under these unresolved problems – Failing States

6. Failing States – Early Sign of Failing CivilizationIraq, Sudan, Somalia, Chad, Congo, Haiti…List grows Every yearCivilization fails after how many states fail?

7. MASSIVE MARKET FAILURE IS DESTROYING USWorld bank Economist Nicholas StudyMARKET FAILS TO INCORPORATE FOSSIL FUEL ECONOMIC COSTSTRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

8. MASSIVE HUMAN GROWTH IN LAST CENTURYEnterprise 20 foldPopulation 4 foldWe now exceed the ability of earth to replenish resources

9. Indirect costs of burning fossil fuel CAN EXCEED THE DIRECT COSTS OF COALNEGLECTING THESE COSTS UNDERVALUES THE MARKET – ECONOMIC DISTORTIONSSOUND DECISIONS CAN’T BE MADE – MUST KNOW FULL PRICE OF PRODUCTTHREATENING CIVILIZATION

10. MARKET DOES NOT INCORPORATE INDIRECT COSTS – EXTERNALITIESNatures contributionDestruction of the environmentFuture costs to Future generations

11. Examples in USGas price in 2007 $3 / galONLY SHOWS PRODUCTION PRICEHIDES HIDES HIDES FULL PRICE – Environmental destructionMilitary costsHealth costsBlood of our soldiersGlobal / Mid East animosity to US$12 PER GALLON FUTURE COST TO OUR CHILDREN!!!MARKET SAYS IT IS CHEEP!!!!

12. MUST RESTRUCTURE PAST SYSTEMSMUST INCORPORATE FULL COST TO SOCIETY

13. EXAMPLE OF HIDING ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS1998China’s Yangtze River Valley400 people’s homeWorst flooding in history - $30 billion costCost exceeded total value of rice harvestCHINA THEN BANNED LOGGING THERETREES STANDING WORTH 3X TREES CUT – FLOOD CONTROL SERVICESMARKET WAS OFF BY FACTOR OF 3!!!!!!!!!

14. ENRON – MOST WIDELY LOVED COMPANY7TH MOST VALUABLE CO IN US 2001THEN… INDEPENDENT AUDITORS…Co HAD LEFT CERTAIN COSTS OFF THE BOOKENRON WAS WORTHLESS$90 STOCKS WENT TO PENNEY'S PER SHARECOLLAPSE WAS COMPLETEIT NO LONGER EXISTS

15. WE’RE DOING WHAT ENRON DID – LEAVING COSTS OFF THE BOOKSIF WE INCORPORATE THE INDIRECT COSTS WE’RE HEADED TOWARD COLLAPSEWe need CITIZEN LEADERS!!!!

16. THE ‘INVISIBLE HAND’ OF THE MARKET IS BLIND TO EXTERNALITIESTREATS MASSIVE SUBSIDIES TO OIL COMPANIES AS IF THEY ARE DESERVED

17. EARLIER CIVILIZATIONS ALSO GOT IN TROUBLEENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED ECONOMIC COLLAPSEIceland 600 yrs ago averted collapse by restricting herd size to sustainable levelsSamaria BC destroyed itself by destroying its croplandThe Mayan civilization destroyed itself by destroying its environment – trees, causing erosion, killing food supply

18. Humans Extraordinary Growth this last Century…GDP now measured in Trillions, once in Billions2007 GDP Growth Exceeded ALL of the 1900 economyearth's natural capacities, such as its ability to supply fresh water, forest products, and seafood, have not increasedEconomy Exponential Growth ECLIPSES now environmental capacity to support it.1980 WE SURPASSED EARTHS REGENERATIVE CAPACITY!WE’RE NOW SURPASSING SUSTAINABLE YIELDS BY 25%

19. WE ARE MEETING DEMANDS BY CONSUMING OUR CHILDREN’S RESOURCES

20. OUR EXISTENCE IS WHOLLY DEPENDED ON EARTH’S NATURAL RESOURCESClimate hospitable for agricultureHydrological processes for waterGeological processes producing soilForests are shrinkingGrasslands turning to desertPumping underground water depleting available supply

21. WE ALL DEPEND ON PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OF EARTHS SYSTEMS.ForestsOceansWetlands

22. EARTH’S SERVICES INCLUDE…water purification, pollination, carbon sequestration, flood control, soil conservation

23. 15 of 24 major ecosystems being Degraded or Pushed Beyond Limits40 Yr. Study of Global Eco Systems1360 scientists¾ Fisheries collapsing

24. TIPPING POINT - Were pushing the RAINFOREST TO BURNRainforests 20% cleared so farCattleSoybean Farming22% degraded by road building and forestryDesert will result if they burnRoughly 100 BILLION TONS OF CARBON WILL BE ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STAYS THERE FOR UP TO 800 YEARS.

25. Overconsumption is collapsing Global – ForestsFisheriesWells, Water supplies

26. Resource collapse creates refugees

27. China proves the EXISTING ECONOMIC MODEL IS SUICIDEChina has 4x the population of USChina consumes more resources than the USGrain, meat, steel1/3 more grainDouble US meat consumption3x steel

28. What if China catches up to US in per capita consumption? Expected by 2030GLOBAL FORESTS GONE - 2x as much paper as produced worldwide per day1.1 BILLION CARS – world currently has 860mNeeding roads and parking lots equal to their agricultural land area98 million barrels per day – MORE THAN THE 90M BARRELS PRODUCED TODAY – THE EXPECTED PEAK.

29. THE WESTERN ECONOMIC MODEL IS DOOM TO US ALLFossil Fuel BasedAuto centricThrow awayIF IT WON’T WORK FOR CHINA IT WON’T WORK FOR INDIAIndia may have bigger population than ChinaWon’t work for 3 billion in developing countries reaching toward middle class

30. OVERRIDING CHALLENGE FOR OUR GENERATION – BUILD AN ECONOMY BASED ON RENEWABLE RESOURCESRenewable energyDiversified transportationReuse and recycling of everythingWE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGYDO WE HAVE THE WILL?

31. Governments collapse when Can’t provide foodCan’t provide securityEducationHealth careLose credibilityLose revenuesSocieties fragmentWars ensueNations come to fear warring statesBecome hotbeds for terrorism and drugs

32. Failing states – GREATEST THREAT TO GLOBAL SECURITYLack healthcareBecome sources of global diseaseNon-state governments emergeWarlords emerge, ClansEstimated 20-47 failing Countries[insert chart]

33. State Failure usually causes environmental destructionDeforestationDesertificationSoil erosionShrinkage of cropland and water per person

34. Deteriorating environmental systems and poverty reinforce each otherDonors avoid for security reasonsState failure spills over into the region dragging it downRwanda, Sudan…

35. Failing states hurts ability to respond to international needsControlling spread of infectious diseasesMaintaining raw material flowsDisrupt local economic progress

36. URGENCY is needed to avoid TIPPING POINTSShrinking species populations beyond recoveryOver-fishing

37. Social tipping pointsSingle issues or simultaneous multiple threatsEconomically advanced can handle it, but not underdevelopedAdvanced countries controlled AIDSNot the underdeveloped countries20% or more adults in some countries infectedUnsupportable population growthMideast and Africa78 million new people per yearGrowth is in countries least able to support them

38. Even advanced countries are getting overwhelmedFalling water tablesExpected – policy would stabilize aquifersNOT ONE COUNTRY HAS YET DONE SOCutting carbon is obviously necessaryNOT ONE COUNTRY HAS DONE IT YETWILL THIS BE OUR DEMISE AS SALT KILLED SAMARIA?Decline in oil productionOnly 2 countries are planning for it!!!

39. These problems can lead to failure of CivilizationAnalyze the effects of mounting stresses on global systemsFood Security is most crucial and revealing

40. Farmers are failing to keep pace with population growthFalling water tablesConverting crop land to other usesExtreme climate eventsHeat wavesDroughtsFloodsWORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION FALLING SHORT OF NEED IN 80% OF THE YEARS NOW2005-2007 GRAIN PRICES TRIPLEDSURPLUS GRAIN SUPPLIES NOW PLUMMETING

41. US – WORLD’S BREAD BASKET – NOW TURNING GRAIN INTO OILUP TO 30% OF RECENT CROPS GO TO FUELDRIVING WORLD GRAIN PRICES TO UNPRECEDENTED HIGHSUNPRECEDENTED FOOD INSECURITYSTATES FAILING

42. STATE FAILURE CAN BE QUICK AND UNEXPECTEDON ENVIRONMENTAL FAILURE CAN DO ITNOW WE HAVE MULTIPLENOW STATES SO INTERCONNECTED THAT ALL WILL RISE OF FAIL TOGETHER

43. Plan B shaped what may save Civilization – NOT by Political CorrectnessRequires attacking on multiple frontsEnding povertyStabilizing populationRestoring earths natural systemsCutting carbon 80% by 2020EfficiencyRenewable sourcesScale and speed – must be wartime speedRestructuring of the world economy commensurate with WWII economy restructuringCars were banned for 3 years

44. Extraordinary challenge – much hopeWe have the EXISTING TECHNOLOGYEVERYTHING NEEDED HAS BEEN DONE SOMEWHEREAdvanced Wind Towers can equal the energy of an oil wellJapanese refrigerators use 12% the power of those a decade agoToday’s hybrid cars – 50 mpg – 50% more efficient

45. Examples of what is possibleDenmark 20% of energy from wind – headed to 60%60m Europeans get electricity from wind40m Chinese getting hot water from rooftop heatersIceland – 90% of homes geothermal heatedIndia using dairy based on crop residue – 4x milk production – world’s biggest milk producerChina fish farming – using advanced carp – first country with farm fish exceeding natural – 1/3 of world’s oceanic fish catch

46. Examples of what is possibleSouth Korea – Reforested to 60% from near zeroUS – in 20 years reduced soil erosion in vulnerable areas 40%US farmers increased crop yields 20% in 20 yearsCuritiba, Brazil since 1974 – Population tripled while traffic 30% reductionAmsterdam – advanced urban transport – 30% by bikesParis transportation diversification headed toward 40% reduction in trafficLondon uses taxes for traffic reduction

47. New technologies available permitting new outcomesPlug-in Hybrids plus Wind Farms –DRIVING ON WIND – at ‘$1 a gallon’

48. THE TIME IS NOW BEFORE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

49. NEXT 5 CHAPTERS – THE ENVIRONMENTAL, DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGESTHEN 7 CHAPTERS – ROADMAP OF WHERE WE NEED TO GO AND HOW TO GET THEREWORLD’S IN TROUBLE BECAUSE OF WHAT WE’VE PUT IN MOTION

50. PROMISING TRENDS OF THE MID 2000’S HAVE EVAPORATED

51. Ban the bulb if global could reduce the equivalent of 700 coal fired power plants

52. IF WE WANT WE CAN CREATE A NEW ECONOMYWe could breathe clean airCities less noisy, polluted, congested, more civilizedExpanding forestsFalling carbon emission

53. The challenge of our generation is a renewable economyWe all depend on the same grain, same resourcesReuse and Recycle EverythingPlan A is destroying the economic supports

54. Plan BStabilizing ClimateStabilizing PopulationEradicating PovertyRestoring Eco Systems

55. Cut carbon dioxide by 80% by 2020

56. Climate InitiativeRaise efficiencyRenewable energyRestore forests

57. Race between tipping pointsPhasing out coal plants or do glaciers melt firstCan we raise the political will in timeCan we stabilize population before too late

58. Slight hope – Citizens are stopping US coal plantsNeeds to expandNeeds to phase out existing plants

59. Wind powerScale is expandingTexas is leading the wind farm expansions23 coal plants equivalentPlug in hybrids now coming to marketsWe have the technologyWe need to raise the will

60. If you don’t study, learn, and spread Plan B 3.0… Why?

61. www.earthpolicy.org