TataKelola dan KamSiber Kecerdasan Buatan v022.pdf
hazards of industrialisation and urbanisation
1. HAZARDS OF INDUSTRIALISATION AND URBANISATION
Dr. I.D. MALL
Professor, Department of Chemical Engg.,
Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, Roorkee- 247667
ENVIRONMENT
Living, Non living : Soil, water, air, energy, space
Socioeconomic.
LIVING
According to Hindu mythology, the gods once decided to churn the sea (Samudra
Manthan) to obtain the pot of nectar of immortality (amrut). While churning, along with
various unique precious things, a stream of poison was released and it started damaging
and destroying the environment. Unless this problem was solved, it was not possible to
obtain the amrut. When no other god showed willingness to handle the poison, Lord
Shiva volunteered. He drank the whole stream of poison. But if He gulps down, He will
invite death and hence He stops the poison in His throat. Thereafter, Lord Shiva is also
known as Neelkanth (blue throat). Thus Lord Shiva showed the way to process the
elements damaging environment and pioneered the concept of 'Sustainable Development'.
ORIGIN OF THE SUSTAINABILITY CONCEPT
The Rio Declaration on Environment and Development
The Convention of Climate Change
Convention on Biological Diversity
Conservation and Sustainable Development of All Types of Forests (Forests
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Principles program).
NON-LIVING
ENVIRONMENT
SOCIE-ECONOMIC
2. FACTORS INFLUENCING SUSTAINABILITY
Sustainability is
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Safe
Universally accepted
Stable
Technology that benefits all
Antipollution
Improvement in quality of life
Nontoxic
Awareness
Beautiful
Indigenous knowledge
Least-cost production
Income
Total quality
Youth
CARRYING CAPACITY
The number of people the earth can support
Biological: maximum limits of global food production
Cultural: quality of life, the environment, future generations
Cultural carrying capacity: the size of a population that can live in a long-term,
sustained balance with the environment at a reasonable quality of life with land
Economic Progress
Quality of Life
Output
Developmental Activities
Input Wastes / Residuals
Resources Environment
Assimilative
Capacity
Supportive
Capacity
Carrying Capacity
3. ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Reviving growth.
Changing the quality of growth.
Meeting essential needs for jobs, food, energy, water, and sanitation.
Conserving and enhancing the resource base.
Reorienting technology and managing risk.
Merging environment and economics in decision making.
Mahatma Gandhi [when asked if, after independence, India would attain
British standards of living]: “It took Britain half the resources of the
planet to achieve its prosperity; how many planets will a country like
India require?”
Rapid industrialization, urbanization and fast economic growth worldwide
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phenomenon.
1950: 29.3% of the global population in urban area,
Present share of urban population more than 43%, to cross 50% mark in 2005.
By 2030, global urban population: twice the size of rural population.
By 2025, more than three fifth of the world population will live in urban area.
Growth of urban population in the developing countries is running at much faster
rate than the developed countries.
By 2000 AD there will 21 cities in the world with more than 10 Million
inhabitants and 17 of them will be in developing countries,
During the second half of the 20th century the world population is projected to
grow by almost 160%, urban population to grow by 375%.
Annual rate of growth reached a peak of 90 million persons a year between 1985
and 1990
By 2000, this has fallen to approximately 80 million persons per year
Experts predict 85%,that growth will level off by the 2070
Urban population in India:
17.3% in 1950
25.5% in 1990 and
more than 45% by 2025 AD
Since 1950 global economic output has increased approximately 5 times
On top of increased rates of resource extraction, industrialization, consumption,
and waste production
In developing countries:
Wages improved
Poverty declined
Infant mortality declined
Life expectancy increased
However in some poor countries : economic conditions get worse, as results of
Social/political unrest, internal and boundary wars, tribal conflicts
Gap between rich and poor grows
4. 4
In 1960 30:1
In 1992 61:1
The present people make 1.1% of global income.
At least 1/5 of people are worse off today in income than generation ago.
Today 20 % of the Earth’s people consume 90 % of its resources; meanwhile
some 4 billion people live on less than US$ 2 per day. This pattern is not
sustainable – nor is the rate of resource depletion.
If we do not act rapidly, by 2032 more than half the World’s people will live in
water-stressed areas.
In addition, expansion of cities, roads and other infrastructure will entail the
disturbance or outright destruction of habitats and wildlife on over 70 % of the
planet’s total land surface (Toepfer, 2002).
Over 70% of the earth surface could be affected by roads, mining, cities and other
infrastructure development in the next 30 years unless urgent action is taken,
Automobile pollution is major concern in cities all over the world.
Loss of biodiversity and climatic changes due to large scale deforestation is
another major problem of urbanization and industrialization.
The CO2 level in the atmosphere is increasing, causing the earth’s temperature to
rise and leading to the melting of polar ice caps and glaciers
The number of forest fires is also increasing around the world.
Rivers are running dry.
China in 1972 the yellow river did not reach the sea for the first time in the
history
1977: it did not reach the sea during 226 days
Situation in many rivers in India is also alarming
5. Plants and animal are taking strong a strong hit; they are desperately trying to
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adapt, but too many will not make it
Poverty erodes human capital;
There are stark social inequities. 20% world population accounts for 80% of total
consumption
Nearly half of the world population( an estimated 2.8 billion people) lives in less
than two dollars a day
Modern society has introduced or increased human exposure to thousands of
chemicals in the environment
Fast growing unplanned and indiscriminate urbanization: Cause of recent
ecological imbalances
Major environmental crisis which mankind is facing due to urban and industrial
development are:
Large scale contamination of water and air.
Deforestation
Increase in urban slums
Generation of huge solid waste consisting of hazardous material.
Water scarcity and ground water depletion.
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Ozone layer depletion
WATER SCARCITY AND WATER POLLUTION
The wars of the next century will be over water – not oil or politics and it is feared
that the growing water scarcity is causing interstate tension which may explode
into violent conflicts over the earth’s fundamental water resources.
Global water consumption increased 6 times in the past century
6. 1/3rd of people have less than adequate water could rise to 2/3 to 20/35
The global water requirements are likely to increase almost tenfold during the
20th century. Water scarcity has been a major problem in most of the cities in
India.
In urban areas of South America, Africa, and Asia, 95% of all sewage is
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discharged untreated into rivers
According to a report of Global
Environment Outlook (GEO – 2000 of
UNEP), the global fresh water
consumption has risen six fold between
1900 and 1995 even more than twice the
rate of population growth.
One third of the world’s population is
already living in countries with moderate
to high water stress, where water
consumption is more than 10 percent of
the renewable fresh water supply.
Roughly 20 percent of the world’s
population (1.1 billion), lack access to
safe drinking water and around 50
percent adequate sanitation.
The problems are most acute in Africa
and West Asia; besides it is a major
constraint in the overall socio-economic
growth in many countries including
China, India and Indonesia.
7. Two thirds of India’s surface water are contaminated sufficiently to be considered
dangerous to human health. 70% of water in India is polluted.
Only 8 of 3119 towns in India fully treat their sewage and only 209 towns
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partially treat their sewage.
65% of the country’s population in 212 class I cities generated 1214 million litre
per day of waste water. Class I and Class II generated 2000 crore lit sewage treat
only 200 crore lit.
Ganga water at Varanasi: Coliform count in upstream and downstream more than
13 times and 300 times the safe limit respectively in the downstream.
Yamuna - river, or a drain?
To call Yamuna a river, particularly
in Delhi, is an aberration of the first
order. The water is black and oil-laden
with suspended pollutants.
Yamuna leaving New Delhi receives
200 million litre of untreated
sewage per day and has coliform 25
million organisms per 100
millimeter against the safe level for
drinking water 100 organisms per
100 millimeter.
Yamuna has become a sewer for
disposal of wastes from 50,000
industries and sewage from 8
million people.
Poor water quality continues to pose a major threat to human health. Diarrhoeal
disease alone amounts to an estimated 4.3 % (62.5 million DALYs) of the total
DALY global burden of disease (WHO, 2002). It was estimated that 88% of that
burden is attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene and is mostly
concentrated on children in developing countries.
OCEAN POLLUTION
6 million tonnes of plastics bottles, packaging material, and other litter tossed from ships
into ocean annually. Few coastal lines in the world remain uncontaminated by oil or oil
products
8. 8
IMPACTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION
Water Pollution
851 industries Discharging 100 +kg BOD
Tamil Nadu Highest Polluter
Grasim Industries
687k Gallons/day of Industrial Waste disposed into Ganges
Food and Agro Based Industries contribute 65-70% of Total Industrial water
waste
9. Leather 70
Pesticide 71
petrochemical 49
Pharma 251
Pulp Paper 96
Refinery 12
Sugar 392
TPP 97
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MAJOR POLLUTING INDUSTRIES
By Industrial Sectors–
17 Key industry sectors
Industry # of Units
Aluminum 07
Caustic 25
Copper 02
Cement 116
Distillery 177
Dyes 64
Fertilizer 110
Iron Steel 08
AIR POLLUTION
Air Pollutant Impacts
Greenhouse effect
Ozone depletion
Acidification
Smog formation
Eutrophication
Human health
Zinc 04
10. Automobile exhaust cause of major concern during recent yeas, contributing
significantly to urban air pollution problem.
The rate of growth of the world’s vehicle fleet projected to surpass that of both
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the total and urban population.
Daily pollutant emission in Metropolitan cities itself has increased considerably.
About 5 million people from Delhi suffer from respiratory illness. 2000 fatal
accidents every year, 10 -12% rise in Delhi.
Lead level in many of the cities was at alarming situation. Situation has improved
with phasing out of lead
EMBODIED MATERIALS
Where do old cars go when they die?
~1500 kg or 3000 lb of material per vehicle
(~2 years worth of daily personal trash)
75% of weight is metals – recyclable, usually
Batteries - lead (again)
Spare parts
CONSUMABLE MATERIALS
Gasoline - air pollution impacts
Oils and fluids - residual materials
Tires - metal and rubber materials
Coolants - dreaded CFCs
Batteries - lead (again)
Spare parts
LAND USE PATTERNS
Road space and construction
Interstate highway system
Parking space and construction
Spread of communities
More roads and change in use
Replacement of mass transit
CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS
Nitrogen Dioxide: NO2
Brownish gas irritates the respiratory system Originates from combustion (N2 in
air is oxidized); NOx sum of NO, NO2, other oxides of N
Ozone: Ground Level O3
Primary constituent of urban smog
Reaction of VOC + NOx in presence of heat +sun light
Carbon Monoxide: CO
Reduces bloods ability to carry O2
Lead: Pb
Cause learning disabilities in children , toxic to liver, kidney, blood forming
organs
11. tetraethyl lead – anti knock agent in gasoline
leaded gasoline has been phased out
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Particulate Matter: PM10 (PM 2.5)
respiratory disorders
Sulfur Dioxide: SO2
formed when fuel (coal, oil) containing S is burned and metal smelting
precursor to acid rain along with NOx
ENVIRONMENTAL EMISSIONS
Delhi – total pollution load declines from 412,000t – 328,000 t (1998-2020)
By 2020, two wheelers and cars contribute 80% HC emissions in Delhi
Two wheelers alone contribute 70% of CO2 emissions
Annual Pollution load in Mumbai declines by 40%
Particulates, SOx and NOx declines due to the decline in diesel usage
CO2 emissions by 2020 under BAU in Delhi would be 2.57 times the present
value
In Mumbai it would be 2.7 times
CO2 emissions in Delhi are 2.4 times higher than Mumbai at any given time
BIODIVERSITY
With the loss of tropical forests, Earth’s biodiversity will
decline….
50% of plant, animals, and microorganisms live in rain forests….
Biodiversity has been seen as the total (and irreducible) complexity
of all life, including not only the great variety of organisms but
also their varying behavior and interactions
DEFORESTATION AND LOSS OF BIO-DIVERSITY
Biodiversity now fundamental component of sustainable development.
With the loss of tropical forests, Earth’s biodiversity will decline….
50% of plant, animals, and microorganisms live in rain forests….
Biodiversity has been seen as the total (and irreducible) complexity of all life,
including not only the great variety of organisms but also their varying behavior
and interactions
Soil loss and erosion
Dramatic increase in the 2nd half of 20th century
Highest erosion rates in poorer countries
Deserts will expand because of land use pressure, grazing. Deforestation,
increased cultivation, draught
Recent Loss of20% of tropical forests
Estimate that only10% will be left by 2nd half of the century
India has less than 2% of total forest area in the world, supports over 15% of the
world population.
Forest over in Delhi only 23% against head of 25%.
12. The per capita forest area decreased from 0.20 hectare in 1981 to 0.11 hectare in
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1991.
Dense forest 40 to 11.73 % Forest cover only 12% against head of 33%. Forest
over in Delhi only 23% against head of 25%.
The per capita forest area decreased from 0.20 hectare in 1981 to 0.11 hectare in
1991.
Dense forest 40 to 11.73 % Forest cover only 12% against head of 33%.
CLIMATIC CHANGES
With rapid and unappropriated development of cities and industrialization there
has been insignificant changes in the climatic conditions of most of the cities and
hill stations.
Climate change is one of the primary environmental concerns of the 21st century.
No single issue is complex, or holds as many potential implications for the
world’s inhabitants.
By 2020, the world’s appetite for energy is likely to be about 75 % higher than
what it was in 1990, barring major changes in energy policies, environmental
policies, and/or technologies. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are currently
about 30 % above pre-industrial levels and are rising.
By 2020, 1oC warmer
By 2070, 3oC warmer
A rise of 3oC would make the world hotter than it has been for the last 2 million
years.
Due to the global warming sea levels expected to increase by a meter or more by
next century. Heat island and another important phenomenon affects the urban
environment.
GLOBAL WARMING
GHGs: CO2, water vapour, methane, etc., trap infrared radiation from Earth:
greenhouse effect – essential for life
Swedish scientist Ahrrenius calculated effect of doubling CO2 in 1896 – 5 degree
C. rise close to modern climate models
CO2 increased by 30% since pre-industrial times; will double by mid-Century
Mean global temperature increased by 0.6 C. over same period; sea levels by 10 –
20 cm, mostly from warming
Models predict 3 – 6 degree C. rise by 2100 without ‘feedback’
About 7 billion tonnes (Gt) of anthropogenic carbon emissions p.a., 20% from
burning (tropical) forest But smoke, dust and sulphate aerosols from coal and
forest burning reflect more incoming radiation and cool the earth
Hence burning forests and ‘brown haze’over S.E. Asia slow global warning,
perhaps by three quarters according to Nobel Laureate climatologist Paul Crutzen
(New Scientist, 7.06.03)
13. CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT
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SOLID WASTE GENERATION
World’s urban waste 720 million tonnes (50% in developing countries)
Global Municipal Solid Waste to Increase 7% in 2004
A report from Research Markets in Dublin, Ireland estimates that in 2004, the
total amount of municipal solid waste generated globally will increase 7% over
2003 figures to 1.84 billion tonnes. The report further estimates that between 2004
and 2008, global generation of municipal waste will rise by 31.1%.
INDIA:
294.484 g per capita per day.
About 28% of the garbage remains unattended.
More that 80% of town and cities do not have adequate infrastructure.
Solid waste from 9 major metropolitan cities expected to go 12 million tonnes by
turn of century.
Hospital Waste: 0.5 Kg per bed per day containing cotton plastics, dressings,
surgical and autopsy waste items saturated with blood and body fluids and
provide fertile environment to bacteria, virus and other micro organisms to
multiply.
7780 tonnes per day solid waste in Delhi.
Socioeconomic development path
Demographic change
Economic growth
Technology
Policy Institutions
Climate change
Temperature rise
Precipitation change
Sea level rise
Variability and extreme events
Human and Natural systems
Land and water resources
Ecosystems and biodiversity
Human health
Human settlements and infrastructure
Emissions and concentrations
Greenhouse gases
Aerosols
Impacts
Mitigation
Adaptation
Vulnerability
Source: IIASA
14. 300 million tonnes of solid waste.
450 million tonnes of coal ash
Hospital Waste: 0.5 Kg per bed per day containing cotton plastics, dressings,
surgical and autopsy waste items saturated with blood and body fluids and
provide fertile environment to bacteria, virus and other micro organisms to
multiply.
85% General category
15% Infectious and hazardous
7780 tonnes per day solid waste in Delhi.
Municipal Solid Waste Projected Trend in Generation of MSW
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60 tonnes of Biomedical waste
300 million tonnes of solid waste.
450 million tonnes of coal ash
Greenhouse Gas Sources Sinks Associated With Material Life Cycle
15. WASTE OR RESOURCE? FACTS AT A GLANCE
About 0.1 million tonnes of municipal solid waste is generated in India every day.
That is approximately 36.5 million tonnes annually.
Per capita waste generation in major Indian cities ranges from 0.2 Kg to 0.6 Kg.
Difference in per capita waste generation between lower and higher income
groups range between 180 to 800 gm per day.
The urban local bodies spend approximately Rs.500 to Rs.1500 per tonne on solid
waste for collection, transportation, treatment and disposal. About 60-70% of this
amount is spent on collection, 20-30% on transportation and less than 5% on final
disposal.
Calorific value of Indian solid waste is between 600 and 800 Kcal/Kg and the
density of waste is between 330 and 560 Kg/m3.
Waste collection efficiency in Indian cities ranges from 50% to 90%.
Out of the total municipal waste collected, on an average 94% is dumped on land
Social Economic
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and 5% is composted.
Between 2000 and 2025 the waste composition of Indian garbage will undergo the
following changes:
Organic Waste will go up from 40 percent to 60 percent
Plastic will rise from 4% to 6%
Metal will escalate from 1% to 4%
Glass will increase from 2% to 3%
Paper will climb from 5% to 15%
Others (ash, sand, grit) will decrease from 47% to 12%
PAST CONCEPT
Environmental
16. DECISION MAKING IN A SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY
Social Economic
Sustainable
Solutions
Environmental
WHY RE-BUILDING NATURAL RESOURCES IS URGENT? - EXAMPLE OF
INDIA
GDP loss due to environmental damage exceeds 10% per year (the case of the US
is perhaps worse according to the organisation Redefining Progress)
11-26% loss of agricultural output due to soil degradation
Annual growth of forest only 88 / cubic mtrs as against 139-235 cubic mtrs
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possible.
23 known species extinct, indicative of threat to rich bio-diversity.
2.5 million people dying prematurely each year due to air pollution
Water quality in most major rivers of India far below acceptable level
CONCLUSIONS
Four Critical Factors
Population- how to control?
Technology- help or hindrance?
Consumerisation- can we all have the resources we want ?
Land use- is there enough?
Environmental Goals
Climate protection through control of CO2 emission
Preservation of natural resources and responsible use of alternative fuels and raw
materials
Control and reduction of atmospheric emissions and discharges
Land scape protection
“Nature is essence of civilisation, to preserve it in its pristine glory
and magnificence becomes our priority”