The MIT-authored book, "Limits to Growth," projects an economic and food-per-capita collapse. Written in 1972, predictions for the population explosion, water shortages, and non-renewable resource depletion have been accurate to date. Can we afford higher food prices?

1. CAN NEW TECHNOLOGY SAVE US IN TIME?
2. Limits to Growth: Food Crash
Paul H. Carr, Ph. D
www.MirrorOfNature.org.
Population Explosion, Climate Change, &
Resource Depletion,

2. CAN NEW TECHNOLOGY SAVE OUR ENVIRONMENT?
1. Nature’s beauty versus its utility.
2.Can new technology save us in time? Limits to Growth. Food
Crash. The MIT-authored book, Limits to Growth, projects an
economic and food-per-capita collapse. Written in 1972, predictions
for the population explosion, water shortages, non-renewable
resource depletion, and climate change have been accurate to date.
3. Why be concerned about Global Warming? Weather Extremes
4. Data supporting anthropogenic global warming.
5. Technology and policies are available to save us.

3. 1. “Limits …”published in 1972 by
MIT Ph.D. students of Prof. Jay
Forrester.
*Has sold 10 million copies
*In 2012, predictions were
shown to be accurate & updated.
2. Crash in the world’s food
production predicted in 2030
-2052.
3.Can we deploy new doubly-green
technologies in time?

4. Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems
http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp
By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971)
Author of World Dynamics
•The intuitively obvious "solutions" to social problems are
apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of
complex systems.
•Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.
•Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated,
not the problem.
-The cause of the problem is within the system.
•Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.

5. THE POPULATION EXPLOSION CAN’T GO ON FOREVER
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the
exponential function.“ Prof. Al Bartlett’s lecture “arithmetic, population, energy.”

6. http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2013/09/the-real-
population-problem/

7. http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2013/09/the-real-
population-problem/
1700-1870 corresponds to the Industrial Revolution, burning of fossil fuels
1950 marks the Green Revolution: full-scale petrolification of agriculture, accompanied by
massive fertilizer campaigns using natural gas as the chemical feedstock.

8. CO2 POLLUTANT DRIVING CLIMATE CHANGE
1880 to 1972: CO2 INCREASE 30 PPM
1972 – 2012: 77 PPM

9. • Fossil energy use started in the 1800s
• Fossil fuels are a limited, non-renewable
resource.
Figure By Tom Murphy
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2013/09/the-real-population-problem/

10. Solar, Wind, Nuclear Needed

11. NON- RENEWABLE RESOURCE DEPLETION:
FOOD PRODUCTION LIMITED BY
-FERTILE TOP-SOIL,
-FERTILIZER (Potash),
-FOSSIL FUELS,
-FRESH WATER
• Water levels in
Lake Mead have
dropped 100 feet.
• The Colorado
River no longer
reaches the sea.
• http://prorev.com/2009/05/drying-of-
lake-mead.html

12. 1978 2011
1600 YEARS OF ICE MELTED IN 25 YEARS
Dating of those plants, using a radioactive form of carbon in the plant
tissues that decays at a known rate, has given scientists an unusually
precise method of determining the history of the Peruvian ice sheet’s
margins.
Lonnie G. Thompson, the Ohio State University glaciologist whose team has
worked intermittently on the Quelccaya ice cap for decades, reported the findings in
a paper released online Thursday by the journal Science.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/world/americas/1600-years-of-ice-in-perus-andes-melted-in-25-years-scientists-say.html?hpw&_r=0

13. http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#ixzz1rG5D2BHa
LOOKING BACK ON THE LIMITS TO GROWTH (1972)
World’s food production predicted to crash in 2030.
.

14. Population
“Social systems belong to the class called multi-loop nonlinear feedback systems.”
MIT Prof. Jay Forrester, World Dynamics

15. A Global Forecast for the Next 40 Years
by Jorgen Randers, Ph. D. MIT 1973, Norwegian Business School
3rd author of “Limits to Growth”
Agrees with Meadows:
We are on an OVERSHOOT & CRASH mode, but CRASH could come after 2052

16. We are not in the blue of “stabilized world” or soft landing mode.
We are one the green “standard run” or OVERSHOOT an COLLAPSE mode

17. 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, by Jorgen Randers
Food production will continue to increase while unused bio-capacity will decrease.

18. It Is Too Late For
Sustainable Development
Dennis Meadows, Ph. D. MIT
Second Author, Limits to Growth
(1972)
Talk at Smithsonian Institution
Washington, DC; February 29, 2012
2012 Creative Learning Exchange Conference
mainly for Jr. & High School teachers.
Babson Executive Conference Center
Wellesley, MA
July 1, 2012

19. NEW RESEARCH TO 2010 SHOWS WE ARE NEARING COLLAPSE.
Is Global Collapse Immanent? An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth With
Historical Data. Turner, G. (2014) MSSI Research Paper No. 4, Melbourne Sustainable Society
Institute, The University of Melbourne.

20. RESOURCE DEMAND AND POPULATION GROWTH
by Jorgen Randers (3rd author of “Limits to Growth, 1972)
1 B population in the developed world (US & Europe) and resource
demand will not increase. Enough food for those who can pay.
3 B population of China & BRISE (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa
and ten leading emerging economies) will increase demand for
resources to increase GDP.
3 B remaining population will remain poor and largely undeveloped.
World population growth will peak in 2045.
CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES
NEW TECHNOLOGY DEVEL0PMENTS

21. IMBALANCE:
US ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS TWICE THAT OF OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
CHINA TRYING TO CATCH UP TO INCREASE ITS GDP & STARDARD OF LIVING
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9023#more

22. Energy Use increases Purchasing Power. Each American has 100 energy slaves.
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/
2013/09/the-real-population-problem/

23. 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years,
by Jorgen Randers (3rd author of “Limits to Growth, 1972)
• While the process of adapting humanity to the planet’s limitations has started, the
human response could be too slow. (Will technology save us in time?)
• The current dominant global economies, particularly the United States, will stagnate.
Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and ten leading emerging economies ( ‘BRISE’) will
progress.
• But there will still be 3 billion poor in 2052. Enough food for those who can pay.
• China will be a success story, because of its ability to act.
• Global population will peak in 2042, because of falling fertility in urban areas
• Global GDP will grow much slower than expected, because of slower productivity
growth in mature economies.
• CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to grow and cause +2°C in 2052;
temperatures will reach +2.8°C in 2080, which may well trigger self-reinforcing
climate change.

24. ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL.
POPULATION PROBLEMS
ARE LOCAL.
“THE RICH ARE GETTING RICHER,
THE POOR ARE HAVING MORE CHILDREN.”

26. Population Imbalance
Population explosion (World): -Birthrate exceeds deaths.
Population decline(Europe): -Death rate exceeds births.
*Italy’s fertility rate only about 1.4—well below the
number needed to replenish its population (2.1).
* Population of Europe is decreasing.
* Heavy debt and an aging, shrinking population are a
very bad combination.
Europe’s Real Crisis
The Continent’s problems are as much demographic as financial. They won’t go away
soon.
The Atlantic, April 2012
Most population growth is occurring in Africa and southern Asia.

27. Population explosion (Africa & Middle East ): -Birthrate exceeds deaths.
Population decline(Europe & Russia): -Death rate exceeds births.
Source: CIA World Factbook http://www.ourbreathingplanet.com/happy-world-population-day-not/

28. Social unrest correlates with food price increases.
http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodcrises.html
Russia Banned Grain Exports, Aug -Dec 2010, as Drought Cut Yields

29. Population Explosion+ Drought =
Syrian Revolution
Syria’s population explosion started in the 1980s and 1990s thanks to
better health care.
From 2006 to 2011, 60 % of Syria’s land mass was ravaged by drought.
With the water table already too low and river irrigation shrunken, it
wiped out the livelihoods of 800,000 Syrian farmers.
People left their farms settled in towns around cities. Some small towns
swelled from 2,000 people to 400,000 in a decade or so.
The government failed to provide proper schools, jobs or services for
this youth bulge, which hit its teens and 20s, right when the revolution
erupted.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/opinion/sunday/friedman-without-water-revolution.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp

30. 2012 DROUGHT: 52% OF U.S.
$ 20 -$25 B loss in crop insurance.
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2012/08/12/opinion/12drought-map.html?
ref=sunday

31. Droughts: Rising Food Prices
2007-08: Grain and soybean prices more than doubled,
leading to food riots and unrest in some 60 countries
2010-11: Another price spike helped fuel the Arab Spring
2012: Drought in our Midwest, the worst since the dustbowl,
raised corn prices to the highest level in history.
Corn Futures Prices
Source: CME Group

32. DECLINE IN THE
MIDWEST
ACQUAFER
Red areas represent a decrease of
more than 150 feet.
In the southwestern corner of
Kansas, farmers are adjusting
to wells that produce one-third
of the water they did twenty
years ago, switching from
water-intensive corn to cows.
Vast stretches of Texas
farmland lying over the aquifer
no longer support irrigation.
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2
013/05/midwest-has-less-water-more-drought-
its-future/65414/

33. WATER WAR BETWEEN EGYPT & ETHIOPIA?
•The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is under-construction
on the Blue Nile.
•Essential for irrigation & hydropower for
Ethiopia’s exploding population of 80 million.
• Egypt, which relies heavily on the waters of the
Nile, has threatened war to stop the dam.5
]
• Egypt’s population of 84 million has quadrupled
from 20 million in 1950.
Ethiopian Theodros Wigiorgis at 2011 IRAS Conf.

34. The deserts in the US Southwest will expand into the central farm belt.
- Farmable land in under-populated Canada will increase.
Farmland in under-populated Siberia will increase.
- Farmland in over-populated China will decrease.

35. POPULTION INCREASE CREATES NEW TECHNOLOGY WHICH COULD SAVE US.

36. Can we deploy new
technologies in time?
• PERENNIAL WHEAT
• FRESH PAPER REDUCES FOOD WASTE
• BIRTH CONTROL
• PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR CELLS: GRID PARITY
($0.10/kWh)
• Doubly Green ELECTRIC CARS NOW GET 100 MILES
PER GALLON EQUIVALENT

37. WILD PLANTS TO THE RESCUE
David Van Tassel & Le DelHaan
American Scientist May-June 2013 vol 101 pg 228
•Perennial plants have extensive roots which
allow them to better survive winter and
droughts. The Land Institute in Salena, KS is
working with intermediate wheat grass to
improve it seed yield and make it easier to
harvest mechanically.
• The wild relative of wheat (right) called
Kernza has a massive root system, 10 feet
deep.
•Annual wheat (triticum aesivum) (left) is
shown for comparison.

41. About 50% of the global food supply is wasted.
Fenugreen is taking on this enormous, global challenge with a simple design.
FreshPaper. Low-cost, compostable and infused only with organic spices.
FreshPaper is a simple sheet of paper infused with organic spices, including
Fenugreen, which inhibit bacterial and fungal growth,.
FreshPaper keeps produce fresh for 2-4x longer.

42. FreshPaper can keep produce fresh up to 2-4 times longer.
-Fresh Paper only needs to be placed wherever the produce is stored – in a
refrigerator drawer, fruit bowl, or any other container.
Customers have described it as a “dryer sheet for produce” because it does
not have to be in direct contact with the produce to work.
It is available at Whole Foods and Wegmans.

43. Melinda Gates’ New Crusade: Investing Billions in Contraception Technology
She plans to use the Gates Foundation’s billions to revolutionize contraception
worldwide. The Catholic right is pushing back. Is she ready for the political
firestorm ahead? (Newsweek, May 7, 2012 )
Her Catholic faith, has always informed her
work. “From the very beginning, we said that
as a foundation we will not support
abortion”
“We’re serving the other piece of the
Catholic mission, which is social justice.”
“100,000 women annually die in childbirth
after unintended pregnancies.
600,000 babies born to women who didn’t
want to be pregnant die in the first month of
life. “
Teaming with British to start raising the
$4 billion the foundation says it will cost to
get 120 million more women access to
contraceptives by 2020.
Depo-Provera is popular in
many poor countries because
women need to inject it only 4
times a year.
http://www.londonfamilyplanningsum
mit.co.uk/

44. SOLUTIONS TO OUR
DEPENENCE ON FOREIGN
OIL & GOBAL WARMING
Electric Cars powered by
• Windmills
• Solar Cells
• Nuclear Fission & Fusion
Power Plants
Electric cars get
the equivalent of
100 miles per
gallon.

46. NISSAN
LEAF® Plug IN
As low as:
$27,700*Net value
after
federal tax credit
106City MPGal
100 mi range.
®
Mitusbishi i
ELECTRIC CARS
106 MILES/GALLON
EQUIVALENT

47. Tesla
Model S
All Electric
260 mile
range.

48. Chevy Volt:
90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery

49. A Darfuri mother and
child tend to a meal
cooking on a Berkeley-
Darfur stove.
3 B PEOPLE COOK ON
3-STONE
Lawrence B“erSkeTleOy NVatiEonSal” Laboratory
(LBNL) designed stove:
- Doubles efficiency
-Halves polluting emissions
$20 Cost funded by
- Contributions
- Sale of Carbon Credits
•Solar stoves are an even better
option.
“There will still be 2 - 3 billion
poor in 2052.” Jorgen Randers

50. Conservation, efficiency, & a more
vegetarian diet can reduce our use of
fossil fuels. Nature is the capital on
which capitalism is based.
In the long-term, our world’s
economy will be constrained by ecology.
There are indeed Limits to Growth.
What are you doing to conserve?
What car would Jesus Drive?

51. Energy/Portion
The Energy
To Create
Your Food
Replacing
meat with
eggs, soy,
and dairy is
equivalent to
switching
from a Camry
to a Prius.
More
Energy Efficient
http://spectrum.iee
e.org/static/the-energy-
to-create-your-
food
IEEE Spectrum,
June 2013, pg 37

52. 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years,
by Jorgen Randers (co-author of “Limits to Growth, 1972)
The main cause of future problems is the
excessively short-term predominant
political and economic model.
“We need a system of governance that takes a more
long-term view. It is unlikely that governments will
pass necessary regulation to force the markets to
allocate more money into climate friendly solutions,
and must not assume that markets will work for
the benefit of humankind”.

53. 1. “Limits …”published in 1972 by
MIT Ph.D. students of Prof. Jay
Forrester.
*Has sold 10 million copies
*In 2012, predictions were
shown to be accurate & updated.
2. Crash in the world’s food
production predicted in 2030.
3.Can we deploy new doubly-green
technologies in time?

54. TECHNOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE TO SOLVE OUR
POPULATION & EVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
CAN WE DEPLOY THEM IN TIME TO MINIMIZE HUMAN SUFFERING?
When asked if we have enough time to prevent catastrophe, Donella Meadows
always said that we have exactly enough time -- starting now.
• WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE FOR OUR
CHILDREN’S FUTURE.
• CONSERVE, INVEST IN SOLAR CELLS ($0.10/KWHR)
- ELECTRIC CARS, 100 MILES/GAL
• ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO VOTE FOR THE ABOVE.

55. http://peoplesclimate.org/march
NY City, Sunday, September 21, 11:30 AM

56. http://watchdisruption.com/

57. CAN NEW TECHNOLOGY SAVE OUR ENVIRONMENT?
1. Nature’s beauty versus its utility.
2.Can new technology save us in time? Limits to Growth. Food
Crash. The MIT-authored book, Limits to Growth, projects an
economic and food-per-capita collapse. Written in 1972, predictions
for the population explosion, water shortages, non-renewable
resource depletion, and climate change have been accurate to date.
3. Why be concerned about Global Warming? Weather Extremes.
4. Data supporting anthropogenic global warming.
5. Technology and policies are available to save us.

58. To see this PowerPoint
Visit my web page www.MirrorOfNature.org and click on
My PowerPoint Talks & then
Can New Technology Save Our Environment?
Or
http://mirrorofnature.org/RISE_TechnologyEnvoronment.htm