You can stream a 38 min audio of the talk here: http://www.planetwork.net/jim/GlobalTrajectory.mp3 edited down from the full TPN presentation on Jan 14, 2008

1. Jim Fournier January 14, 2008 The Global Trajectory?

3. A new meta-narrative, an attempt to radically reframe the story that we tell ourselves about reality.

5. In Most Arguments Both Sides Are Right in What They Affirm and Wrong in What They Deny John Stuart Mill

6. The Global Trajectory?

8. Long-Term Population Growth Global Population: Milestones, Hopes, and Concerns Vaclav Smil, PhD http://www.ippnw.org/MGS/V5N2Smil.html

9. Peak Population? http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/GW/data/global/ciesin-sres/

10. Population S-Curve http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/summer95/fig1.html

11. Population J-Curve? http://www.beyondpeak.com/scenarios/stanton3.gif

12. Peak Oil http://www.peakoil.org

13. The Green Party View

14. Global Energy Use Per Person Has Actually Stopped Growing http://www.esru.strath.ac.uk/EandE/Web_sites/03-04/biomass/ background%20info.html

15. But the Population has Not, and thus CO 2 is Still Growing http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/publications/ap2000/Action_Plan_2000.htm

16. 1000 years of Atmospheric CO 2 level and Temperature http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/millenniumCO2.htm

17. CO 2 , Methane and Temperature over the last 160,000 years http://www.iitap.iastate.edu/gccourse/chem/gases/images/meth_temp.gif

18. Actual Arctic Sea Ice http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml

19. Overall Consumption Is Still Growing http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/kerr_02.htm Natural Resources

21. All Represent Absolute Limits to Population http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/publications/images/G2R.html_img_10.jpg

22. All Put Biodiversity At Risk http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/Hotspots

24. What Are We to Make of the Current Global Situation? http://www.maa.org/devlin/GordianKnot.jpg

25. One Biological Metaphor Is Cancer

26. If we do not curtail our destruction of the biosphere, and halt our population growth very soon, not only will we face a die-off of most of the human population, we will foreclose the possibility of a viable world for all future generations.

27. Will Humanity Turn Out to Be Like a Colony of Mold in a Petri Dish?

28. Or Like An Embryo

29. Using The White of the Egg to Grow

30. A New Form of Complexity? © James L. Fournier

31. Virtually all cultures have some tradition wherein it is understood that for an individual to arrive at a state of greater integration and spiritual realization, that person must first undergo a process of psycho-spiritual death and rebirth.

32. At the same time, numerous cultures all have prophesies that seem to foretell either, The End of the World , or The Birth of a New World , or both.

33. Australian Aboriginal

34. African Dogon

35. Native American

36. The Mayan Calendar

37. The Kali Yuga

38. The Dawning of the Age of Aquarius

39. The Christian Apocalypse, Rapture & Second Coming

40. Even Karl Marx with his dictum, from each according to his ability to each according to his need, seems more like a prophetic mystic visionary than an economic theorist.

41. Teilhard de Chardin’s Noosphere? © James L. Fournier

42. It would seem plausible that whatever event is being foretold would at once validate all of the prophesies in retrospect, and yet therefore also necessarily turn out to be different than any of their culturally bound interpretations.

43. What could happen that would at once be sufficient to fulfill our collective psychic experience of the End of the World , while at the same time allowing a New World to be born?

44. One event that could fulfill both conditions would be an economic collapse and subsequent transformation of the global monetary system.

45. But everything we can see suggests that economics will be but one among a multi-dimensional set of discontinuities.

46. The Shift Point in Time © James L. Fournier

47. For the meta-narrative to be compelling it must at once include the mythic dimension, but it must also embrace and transcend the material and scientific dimensions – for a culture trapped in materialism nothing less will be sufficient.

48. Reframing the Evolution of Technology In the Context of Biological Evolution Roger Dean

49. Life First Derived Energy from Chemicals in the Primordial Soup

50. Until it had Eaten All of the Soup and had to Invent Photosynthesis http://fig.cox.miami.edu/~tkoop/spring00/blnphotosyn.html

51. Only After the Oxygen Released had Rusted All of the Iron in the Earth’s Crust

52. The Oxygen Level Finally Spiked Causing Spontaneous Combustion, and the First Climate Crisis

53. Respiration Took Advantage of All the New High-Energy Oxygen http://bioweb.wku.edu/courses/BIOL115/Wyatt/Metabolism/Glycolysis2.htm

54. Resulting in the Carbon Cycle http://www.energex.com.au/switched_on/energy_environment/energy_s_html_carboncycle.html

55. The Carbon Cycle Has Remained in Balance Ever Since – Up Until Now http://www.bom.gov.au/info/climate/change/gallery/images/9.jpg

56. Thus, Peak Oil can actually be seen as at least the second energy crisis, and Global Warming as the second atmospheric crisis, in the history of life on Earth.

57. Renewables are on track to replace fossil fuel within 50 years or less, even at current growth rates. Solar Wind Biomass

58. But the atmospheric CO 2 level is already so high that it is driving an accelerating loss of Arctic Sea ice. This could set off an irrecoverable feedback loop long before then, even if we could reduce all CO 2 emissions to zero today.

59. Actual Arctic Sea Ice http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml

60. Both geologic storage of CO 2 , and seeding the ocean with iron to promote algae bloom to remove CO 2 , are proving unsuccessful in recent scientific tests. However, there are two little known methods of addressing Climate Change that could allow us to first temporarily reverse the warming, and then gradually remove net CO 2 from the atmosphere over decades.

61. Global Cooling is a geo-engineering scheme wherein a fine mist of sea water would be sprayed up into low-lying ocean clouds to increase their reflectivity. Initial modeling indicates that this could counteract as much as twice the warming so far, and do so by means of small robotic wind powered ships at a total global cost of less than $100M/year.

62. Biochar is perhaps the only beneficial method of removing net carbon from the atmosphere. By making a portion of waste biomass into agricultural charcoal the process removes net carbon from the atmosphere while increasing soil fertility. If fully deployed globally, biochar might remove all of the net carbon released from burning fossil fuels, within about 50 years.

63. http://www.biomassec.com

64. This allows us to imagine a scenario where Climate Change could prove to be an acute emergency, one that comes to a head within a few years, but one which must be dealt with by implementing both short-term mitigation and long-term solutions that will continue to be deployed over a period of many decades.

65. What if the crises we see on the horizon are not the beginning of a protracted dark age? What if the current model of infinitely accelerating growth is also incorrect? Many events that will be frightening to us may be exactly what must happen to make the leap to a truly sustainable long-term future, but what would that look like?

66. Buckminster Fuller First Described Humanity’s Option for Success

67. If Global Trends Decelerate, What Looked Like Log Curves and J-Curves May Turn Out to be Bell Curves and S-Curves

68. An S-Curve Implies a Future Plateau Characterized by Climax Technology © James L. Fournier

69. The Shift Point in Time © James L. Fournier

72. The Family Tree of Life is the True Measure of Wealth Tree of Life Web Project http://tolweb.org/tree

73. For all of human evolution Nature was something with teeth and claws that could jump out of the dark and eat you. Now, in a single generation that situation has been inverted. Nature is suddenly something fragile that we must protect lest we perish.

74. We are undergoing a point of inversion in matter and culture. From this point on our technological evolution in matter may be guided by the recognition of the potential for a climax technology, a state of Meta-Nature. A state as harmonious as nature in the coherence of its design, which, like nature, is the realization of a potential already inherent in the puzzle that is matter. Meta-Nature

75. GEOMAN © James L. Fournier

76. Silicon is Like the Next Octave of Carbon © James L. Fournier

77. Photovoltaics Capture Photons in Silicon Just as Photosynthesis Does with Carbon

78. From Wood to Hydrogen http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/energytransition.html

82. The Shift Point in Time © James L. Fournier

83. The Shift must reframe the perception of society, to at once validate everything that has happened to bring us to this point, while at the same time making it self-evident to everyone that we must each now radically change course in the light of this new found perspective.

84. © James L. Fournier