Facing the Future  Our Moment in History Jim Fournier January 14, 2008 Tipping Points
Three Big Ideas – in 30 min A new Meta-Narrative about our Time. Climate Change as a far more serious but more rapidly solvable challenge. Catalyzing greater collective global intelligence through the Internet.
A new meta-narrative, an attempt to radically reframe the story that we tell ourselves about reality.
A Synthesis of Two Apparently Contradictory World Views We are on a Collision Course with  Global Catastrophe (Limits to Growth) The Market & Technology will solve   everything (The Market is God)
In Most Arguments Both Sides Are Right in What They Affirm and Wrong in What They Deny John Stuart Mill
The Global Trajectory?
Planetary Crises; Evolutionary Drivers: Population  Peak Oil Global Warming  Resource Exhaustion  Economic Turmoil
Long-Term Population Growth Global Population: Milestones, Hopes, and Concerns  Vaclav Smil, PhD  http://www.ippnw.org/MGS/V5N2Smil.html
Peak Population? http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/GW/data/global/ciesin-sres/
Population S-Curve http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/summer95/fig1.html
Population J-Curve? http://www.beyondpeak.com/scenarios/stanton3.gif
Peak Oil http://www.peakoil.org
The Green Party View
Global Energy Use Per Person Has Actually Stopped Growing http://www.esru.strath.ac.uk/EandE/Web_sites/03-04/biomass/ background%20info.html
But the Population has Not,  and thus CO 2  is Still Growing http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/publications/ap2000/Action_Plan_2000.htm
1000 years of Atmospheric CO 2  level and Temperature http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/millenniumCO2.htm
CO 2 , Methane and Temperature over the last 160,000 years http://www.iitap.iastate.edu/gccourse/chem/gases/images/meth_temp.gif
Actual Arctic Sea Ice http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml
Overall  Consumption  Is Still Growing http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/kerr_02.htm Natural Resources
Ecological Footprints Combine Many Factors, But We Should Focus More on Key Biological Resources:   Forests Fisheries Farmland Fresh Water
All Represent Absolute  Limits to Population http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/publications/images/G2R.html_img_10.jpg
All Put Biodiversity At Risk http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/Hotspots
Global Economic Instability Debt-based Monetary System “ Faith-based”  Fiat Money 98% of Wealth Held by  Less Than 2% of Population 95% of Global Economic Activity Is Speculative Whole Regions of the World  in Chronic Debt Crisis
What Are We to Make of the Current Global Situation? http://www.maa.org/devlin/GordianKnot.jpg
One Biological Metaphor Is Cancer
If we do not curtail our destruction of the biosphere, and halt our population growth very soon, not only will we face a die-off of most of the human population, we will foreclose the possibility of a viable world for all future generations.
Will Humanity Turn Out to Be Like  a Colony of Mold in a Petri Dish?
Or Like An Embryo
Using The White of the Egg to Grow
A New Form of Complexity? © James L. Fournier
Virtually all cultures have some tradition wherein it is understood that for an individual to arrive at  a state of greater integration and spiritual realization, that person must first undergo a process of psycho-spiritual death and rebirth.
At the same time, numerous cultures all have prophesies  that seem to foretell either,  The End of the World , or  The Birth of a New World ,  or both.
Australian Aboriginal
African Dogon
Native American
The Mayan Calendar
The Kali Yuga
The Dawning of the  Age of Aquarius
The Christian Apocalypse, Rapture & Second Coming
Even Karl Marx with his dictum,  from each according to his ability  to each according to his need,   seems more like a prophetic mystic visionary than an economic theorist.
Teilhard de Chardin’s   Noosphere? © James L. Fournier
It would seem plausible that whatever event is being foretold would at once validate all of the prophesies in retrospect, and yet therefore also necessarily turn out to be different than any of their culturally bound interpretations.
What could happen that would at once be sufficient to fulfill our collective psychic experience of the  End of the World , while at the same time allowing a  New World  to be born?
One event that could fulfill both conditions would be an economic collapse and subsequent transformation of the global monetary system.
But everything we can see suggests that economics will be but one among a multi-dimensional set of discontinuities.
The Shift Point in Time © James L. Fournier
For the meta-narrative to be compelling it must at once include the mythic dimension, but it must also embrace and transcend the material and scientific dimensions – for a culture trapped in materialism nothing less will be sufficient.
Reframing the Evolution of Technology In the Context  of Biological  Evolution Roger Dean
Life First Derived Energy from Chemicals in the Primordial Soup
Until it had Eaten All of the Soup and had to Invent Photosynthesis http://fig.cox.miami.edu/~tkoop/spring00/blnphotosyn.html
Only After the Oxygen Released had Rusted All of the Iron in the Earth’s Crust
The Oxygen Level  Finally Spiked Causing Spontaneous Combustion, and the First Climate Crisis
Respiration Took Advantage  of All the New High-Energy  Oxygen http://bioweb.wku.edu/courses/BIOL115/Wyatt/Metabolism/Glycolysis2.htm
Resulting in the Carbon Cycle http://www.energex.com.au/switched_on/energy_environment/energy_s_html_carboncycle.html
The Carbon Cycle Has Remained in Balance Ever Since – Up Until Now http://www.bom.gov.au/info/climate/change/gallery/images/9.jpg
Thus, Peak Oil can actually  be seen as at least the second energy crisis, and Global Warming as the second atmospheric crisis, in the history of life on Earth.
Renewables are on track to replace fossil fuel within 50 years or less, even at current growth rates.  Solar  Wind  Biomass
But the atmospheric CO 2  level is already so high that it is driving an  accelerating loss of Arctic Sea ice. This could set off an irrecoverable feedback loop long before then, even if we could reduce all CO 2  emissions to zero today.
Actual Arctic Sea Ice http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml
Both geologic storage of CO 2 , and seeding the ocean with iron to promote algae bloom to remove CO 2 , are proving unsuccessful in recent scientific tests.  However, there are two little known methods of addressing Climate Change that could allow us to first  temporarily reverse the warming, and then gradually remove net  CO 2  from the atmosphere over decades.
Global Cooling is a geo-engineering scheme wherein a fine mist of sea water would be sprayed up into low-lying ocean clouds to increase their reflectivity. Initial modeling indicates that this could counteract as much as twice the warming so far, and do so by means of small robotic wind powered ships at a total global cost of less than $100M/year.
Biochar is perhaps the only beneficial method of removing net carbon from the atmosphere. By making a portion of waste biomass into agricultural charcoal the process removes net carbon from the atmosphere while increasing soil fertility.  If fully deployed globally, biochar might remove all of the net carbon released from burning fossil fuels, within about 50 years.
http://www.biomassec.com
This allows us to imagine a scenario where Climate Change could prove to be an acute emergency, one that comes to a head within a few years, but one which must be dealt with by implementing both short-term mitigation and long-term solutions that will continue to be deployed over a period of many decades.
What if the crises we see on the horizon are not the beginning of a protracted dark age?  What if the current model of infinitely accelerating growth is also incorrect? Many events that will be frightening to us may be exactly what must happen to make the leap to a truly sustainable long-term future, but what would that look like?
Buckminster Fuller First Described Humanity’s Option for Success
If Global Trends Decelerate, What Looked Like Log Curves and J-Curves May Turn Out to be Bell Curves and S-Curves
An S-Curve Implies a Future Plateau Characterized by Climax Technology © James L. Fournier
The Shift Point in Time © James L. Fournier
At the Point of Inflection on  the S-Curve the System is: Changing So Fast That Nothing is Retained So Inefficient Nothing Should Be Retained First Glimpsing the Potential Future State Passing Through the Neck of the Hourglass Itself the Global Birth Canal Chaotic, Highly Unstable
As We Pass Through the Neck of the Hourglass There Will Be Two Key Measures of Success: Preservation of Biodiversity Achieving Climax Technology
The Family Tree of Life is the True Measure of Wealth Tree of Life Web Project  http://tolweb.org/tree
For all of human evolution Nature was something with teeth and claws that could jump out of the dark and eat you.  Now, in a single generation that situation has been inverted. Nature is suddenly something fragile that we must protect lest we perish.
We are undergoing a point of inversion in matter and culture. From this point on our technological evolution in matter may be guided by the recognition of the potential for a climax technology, a state of Meta-Nature.  A state as harmonious as nature in the coherence of its design, which, like nature,  is the realization of a potential already inherent in the puzzle that is matter.   Meta-Nature
GEOMAN © James L. Fournier
Silicon is Like the Next  Octave of Carbon © James L. Fournier
Photovoltaics Capture Photons in Silicon Just as Photosynthesis Does with Carbon
From Wood to Hydrogen http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/energytransition.html
Carbon to Hydrogen Ratio Has Been Evolving in Fossil Fuels Wood Peat Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydrogen Each has less carbon and more hydrogen until one arrives at pure hydrogen Hydrogen is the smallest lightest element
Bucky Balls: Buckminsterfullerene and C 60  Based Carbon Nanotubes Carbon structures based on a geodesic sphere with 60 nodes will provide the ultra strong & ultra light-weight materials that will allow us to achieve the order of magnitude increase in natural resource and energy efficiency that we will need.
Summary of Meta-Nature An Octave of Nature A Climax Technology As Energy Efficient as Nature As Material Efficient as Nature Not Merely An Imitation of Nature A Platonic Potential Inherent in Creation
The Shift Point in Time © James L. Fournier
The Shift must reframe the perception  of society, to at once validate everything that has happened to bring us to this point, while at the same time making it self-evident to everyone that we must each now radically change course in  the light of this new found perspective.
What can we do that would hasten the most positive outcome? Where would we find the growing tip of the Noosphere? The obvious answer is – online.
Facebook  &  MySpace http://www.facebook.com http://www.myspace.com
LinkedIn  Tribe http://www.linkedin.com http://www.tribe.com
Google Maps & Google Earth  http://maps.google.com http://earth.google.com
The confluence of online social networks and geospatial mapping offers a unique moment of opportunity for the emergence of a purposeful global social network; the wikipedia philosophy embodied in a truly distributed, decentralized, index, map and matrix based on self-descriptions of all entities engaged in global civil society.
care2.com  avazz.org http://www.care2.com http://www.avazz.org
WiserEarth.org www.wiserearth.org
Each is at best an island, or at worst  a walled castle. Each keeps your identity data (and relationship data) inside its own proprietary database. Like the Internet itself, a truly inter-operable digital identity system must be based on open standards.
searched, crawled, indexed and situated,  both conceptually, and geographically  in relation to others within  a global matrix of solutions. Each individual entity needs to be able to: Identify itself  Control its own profile Declare its intention and purpose Describe its offerings and needs Tag itself in a manner that allows it to be
To empower those holding various pieces of the solution to see how they can be most effective, we might create conditions to catalyze a self-organizing online map. There are, and have been, many efforts to do this that we might partner with, but to be effective one must walk a fine line of supporting, without claiming, the center.
© James L. Fournier

FacingFuture TPN 1-14-08

  • 1.
    Facing the Future Our Moment in History Jim Fournier January 14, 2008 Tipping Points
  • 2.
    Three Big Ideas– in 30 min A new Meta-Narrative about our Time. Climate Change as a far more serious but more rapidly solvable challenge. Catalyzing greater collective global intelligence through the Internet.
  • 3.
    A new meta-narrative,an attempt to radically reframe the story that we tell ourselves about reality.
  • 4.
    A Synthesis ofTwo Apparently Contradictory World Views We are on a Collision Course with Global Catastrophe (Limits to Growth) The Market & Technology will solve everything (The Market is God)
  • 5.
    In Most ArgumentsBoth Sides Are Right in What They Affirm and Wrong in What They Deny John Stuart Mill
  • 6.
  • 7.
    Planetary Crises; EvolutionaryDrivers: Population Peak Oil Global Warming Resource Exhaustion Economic Turmoil
  • 8.
    Long-Term Population GrowthGlobal Population: Milestones, Hopes, and Concerns Vaclav Smil, PhD http://www.ippnw.org/MGS/V5N2Smil.html
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
    Global Energy UsePer Person Has Actually Stopped Growing http://www.esru.strath.ac.uk/EandE/Web_sites/03-04/biomass/ background%20info.html
  • 15.
    But the Populationhas Not, and thus CO 2 is Still Growing http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/publications/ap2000/Action_Plan_2000.htm
  • 16.
    1000 years ofAtmospheric CO 2 level and Temperature http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/millenniumCO2.htm
  • 17.
    CO 2 ,Methane and Temperature over the last 160,000 years http://www.iitap.iastate.edu/gccourse/chem/gases/images/meth_temp.gif
  • 18.
    Actual Arctic SeaIce http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml
  • 19.
    Overall Consumption Is Still Growing http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/kerr_02.htm Natural Resources
  • 20.
    Ecological Footprints CombineMany Factors, But We Should Focus More on Key Biological Resources: Forests Fisheries Farmland Fresh Water
  • 21.
    All Represent Absolute Limits to Population http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/publications/images/G2R.html_img_10.jpg
  • 22.
    All Put BiodiversityAt Risk http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/Hotspots
  • 23.
    Global Economic InstabilityDebt-based Monetary System “ Faith-based” Fiat Money 98% of Wealth Held by Less Than 2% of Population 95% of Global Economic Activity Is Speculative Whole Regions of the World in Chronic Debt Crisis
  • 24.
    What Are Weto Make of the Current Global Situation? http://www.maa.org/devlin/GordianKnot.jpg
  • 25.
  • 26.
    If we donot curtail our destruction of the biosphere, and halt our population growth very soon, not only will we face a die-off of most of the human population, we will foreclose the possibility of a viable world for all future generations.
  • 27.
    Will Humanity TurnOut to Be Like a Colony of Mold in a Petri Dish?
  • 28.
    Or Like AnEmbryo
  • 29.
    Using The Whiteof the Egg to Grow
  • 30.
    A New Formof Complexity? © James L. Fournier
  • 31.
    Virtually all cultureshave some tradition wherein it is understood that for an individual to arrive at a state of greater integration and spiritual realization, that person must first undergo a process of psycho-spiritual death and rebirth.
  • 32.
    At the sametime, numerous cultures all have prophesies that seem to foretell either, The End of the World , or The Birth of a New World , or both.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
    The Dawning ofthe Age of Aquarius
  • 39.
    The Christian Apocalypse,Rapture & Second Coming
  • 40.
    Even Karl Marxwith his dictum, from each according to his ability to each according to his need, seems more like a prophetic mystic visionary than an economic theorist.
  • 41.
    Teilhard de Chardin’s Noosphere? © James L. Fournier
  • 42.
    It would seemplausible that whatever event is being foretold would at once validate all of the prophesies in retrospect, and yet therefore also necessarily turn out to be different than any of their culturally bound interpretations.
  • 43.
    What could happenthat would at once be sufficient to fulfill our collective psychic experience of the End of the World , while at the same time allowing a New World to be born?
  • 44.
    One event thatcould fulfill both conditions would be an economic collapse and subsequent transformation of the global monetary system.
  • 45.
    But everything wecan see suggests that economics will be but one among a multi-dimensional set of discontinuities.
  • 46.
    The Shift Pointin Time © James L. Fournier
  • 47.
    For the meta-narrativeto be compelling it must at once include the mythic dimension, but it must also embrace and transcend the material and scientific dimensions – for a culture trapped in materialism nothing less will be sufficient.
  • 48.
    Reframing the Evolutionof Technology In the Context of Biological Evolution Roger Dean
  • 49.
    Life First DerivedEnergy from Chemicals in the Primordial Soup
  • 50.
    Until it hadEaten All of the Soup and had to Invent Photosynthesis http://fig.cox.miami.edu/~tkoop/spring00/blnphotosyn.html
  • 51.
    Only After theOxygen Released had Rusted All of the Iron in the Earth’s Crust
  • 52.
    The Oxygen Level Finally Spiked Causing Spontaneous Combustion, and the First Climate Crisis
  • 53.
    Respiration Took Advantage of All the New High-Energy Oxygen http://bioweb.wku.edu/courses/BIOL115/Wyatt/Metabolism/Glycolysis2.htm
  • 54.
    Resulting in theCarbon Cycle http://www.energex.com.au/switched_on/energy_environment/energy_s_html_carboncycle.html
  • 55.
    The Carbon CycleHas Remained in Balance Ever Since – Up Until Now http://www.bom.gov.au/info/climate/change/gallery/images/9.jpg
  • 56.
    Thus, Peak Oilcan actually be seen as at least the second energy crisis, and Global Warming as the second atmospheric crisis, in the history of life on Earth.
  • 57.
    Renewables are ontrack to replace fossil fuel within 50 years or less, even at current growth rates. Solar Wind Biomass
  • 58.
    But the atmosphericCO 2 level is already so high that it is driving an accelerating loss of Arctic Sea ice. This could set off an irrecoverable feedback loop long before then, even if we could reduce all CO 2 emissions to zero today.
  • 59.
    Actual Arctic SeaIce http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/seaice.shtml
  • 60.
    Both geologic storageof CO 2 , and seeding the ocean with iron to promote algae bloom to remove CO 2 , are proving unsuccessful in recent scientific tests. However, there are two little known methods of addressing Climate Change that could allow us to first temporarily reverse the warming, and then gradually remove net CO 2 from the atmosphere over decades.
  • 61.
    Global Cooling isa geo-engineering scheme wherein a fine mist of sea water would be sprayed up into low-lying ocean clouds to increase their reflectivity. Initial modeling indicates that this could counteract as much as twice the warming so far, and do so by means of small robotic wind powered ships at a total global cost of less than $100M/year.
  • 62.
    Biochar is perhapsthe only beneficial method of removing net carbon from the atmosphere. By making a portion of waste biomass into agricultural charcoal the process removes net carbon from the atmosphere while increasing soil fertility. If fully deployed globally, biochar might remove all of the net carbon released from burning fossil fuels, within about 50 years.
  • 63.
  • 64.
    This allows usto imagine a scenario where Climate Change could prove to be an acute emergency, one that comes to a head within a few years, but one which must be dealt with by implementing both short-term mitigation and long-term solutions that will continue to be deployed over a period of many decades.
  • 65.
    What if thecrises we see on the horizon are not the beginning of a protracted dark age? What if the current model of infinitely accelerating growth is also incorrect? Many events that will be frightening to us may be exactly what must happen to make the leap to a truly sustainable long-term future, but what would that look like?
  • 66.
    Buckminster Fuller FirstDescribed Humanity’s Option for Success
  • 67.
    If Global TrendsDecelerate, What Looked Like Log Curves and J-Curves May Turn Out to be Bell Curves and S-Curves
  • 68.
    An S-Curve Impliesa Future Plateau Characterized by Climax Technology © James L. Fournier
  • 69.
    The Shift Pointin Time © James L. Fournier
  • 70.
    At the Pointof Inflection on the S-Curve the System is: Changing So Fast That Nothing is Retained So Inefficient Nothing Should Be Retained First Glimpsing the Potential Future State Passing Through the Neck of the Hourglass Itself the Global Birth Canal Chaotic, Highly Unstable
  • 71.
    As We PassThrough the Neck of the Hourglass There Will Be Two Key Measures of Success: Preservation of Biodiversity Achieving Climax Technology
  • 72.
    The Family Treeof Life is the True Measure of Wealth Tree of Life Web Project http://tolweb.org/tree
  • 73.
    For all ofhuman evolution Nature was something with teeth and claws that could jump out of the dark and eat you. Now, in a single generation that situation has been inverted. Nature is suddenly something fragile that we must protect lest we perish.
  • 74.
    We are undergoinga point of inversion in matter and culture. From this point on our technological evolution in matter may be guided by the recognition of the potential for a climax technology, a state of Meta-Nature. A state as harmonious as nature in the coherence of its design, which, like nature, is the realization of a potential already inherent in the puzzle that is matter. Meta-Nature
  • 75.
    GEOMAN © JamesL. Fournier
  • 76.
    Silicon is Likethe Next Octave of Carbon © James L. Fournier
  • 77.
    Photovoltaics Capture Photonsin Silicon Just as Photosynthesis Does with Carbon
  • 78.
    From Wood toHydrogen http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/energytransition.html
  • 79.
    Carbon to HydrogenRatio Has Been Evolving in Fossil Fuels Wood Peat Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydrogen Each has less carbon and more hydrogen until one arrives at pure hydrogen Hydrogen is the smallest lightest element
  • 80.
    Bucky Balls: Buckminsterfullereneand C 60 Based Carbon Nanotubes Carbon structures based on a geodesic sphere with 60 nodes will provide the ultra strong & ultra light-weight materials that will allow us to achieve the order of magnitude increase in natural resource and energy efficiency that we will need.
  • 81.
    Summary of Meta-NatureAn Octave of Nature A Climax Technology As Energy Efficient as Nature As Material Efficient as Nature Not Merely An Imitation of Nature A Platonic Potential Inherent in Creation
  • 82.
    The Shift Pointin Time © James L. Fournier
  • 83.
    The Shift mustreframe the perception of society, to at once validate everything that has happened to bring us to this point, while at the same time making it self-evident to everyone that we must each now radically change course in the light of this new found perspective.
  • 84.
    What can wedo that would hasten the most positive outcome? Where would we find the growing tip of the Noosphere? The obvious answer is – online.
  • 85.
    Facebook & MySpace http://www.facebook.com http://www.myspace.com
  • 86.
    LinkedIn Tribehttp://www.linkedin.com http://www.tribe.com
  • 87.
    Google Maps &Google Earth http://maps.google.com http://earth.google.com
  • 88.
    The confluence ofonline social networks and geospatial mapping offers a unique moment of opportunity for the emergence of a purposeful global social network; the wikipedia philosophy embodied in a truly distributed, decentralized, index, map and matrix based on self-descriptions of all entities engaged in global civil society.
  • 89.
    care2.com avazz.orghttp://www.care2.com http://www.avazz.org
  • 90.
  • 91.
    Each is atbest an island, or at worst a walled castle. Each keeps your identity data (and relationship data) inside its own proprietary database. Like the Internet itself, a truly inter-operable digital identity system must be based on open standards.
  • 92.
    searched, crawled, indexedand situated, both conceptually, and geographically in relation to others within a global matrix of solutions. Each individual entity needs to be able to: Identify itself Control its own profile Declare its intention and purpose Describe its offerings and needs Tag itself in a manner that allows it to be
  • 93.
    To empower thoseholding various pieces of the solution to see how they can be most effective, we might create conditions to catalyze a self-organizing online map. There are, and have been, many efforts to do this that we might partner with, but to be effective one must walk a fine line of supporting, without claiming, the center.
  • 94.
    © James L.Fournier