Presentation delivered by James (Jim) Breaux, PE, MSF, Director, Engineering Operations, Centurion Pipeline Co. at the marcus evans Energy Pipeline Management Summit 2017 held in Dallas, TX

1. Scenarios
Possibilities and Uncertainties

2. There are as many reasons to think about the long term future of
the pipeline industry as there are to think about the short term
(quarterly/annual forecasts).
This presentation seeks to illuminate some possible long term
futures of our industry by proposing scenarios based on trends,
uncertainty, and possibilities to provoke the audience away from
undesirable circumstances and towards preferred futures.
The story arc begins with risks of infinite impact (the end of human
civilization) rises through 3 pipeline industry scenarios of the year
2052 and closes with thoughts on a positive and useful
circumstance to which we can rally.

3. Music: Bride in the Sparks, Masta Cuts

5. • Introduction
• My futures tenets
• The risks of the VUCA world we live in
• What’s driving us to the futures I describe
• 2 Scenarios to limber us up
• And one scenario closer to home
• Some conclusions and observations
• Then Discussion
Questions, Comments anytime - unless we run long

6. • There are many possible futures
• These futures will be shaped by people
• People have many perspectives
• Different perspectives illuminate different futures
• Valuable ideas about the future must be useful
• Useful ideas about the future must be accessible
from people’s perspectives.

8. • Top 5 Global Risks: Likelihood (In order)
• Extreme Weather Events
• Large Scale involuntary migration
• Major Natural Disasters
• Large Scale Terrorist Attacks
• Massive Incident of Data Fraud/Theft
• Top 5 Global Risks: Impact (In order)
• Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Extreme Weather Events
• Water Crises
• Major Natural Disasters
• Failure of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaption
“We believe the global community should work together to harness new tools to address
global catastrophic risks.” Global Challenges Foundation, 2016 report

9. Global Policy Challenges
Emerging Challenges
Exogenous Change
Current Challenges
1. Extreme Climate Change
2. Nuclear War
3. Global Pandemic
4. Ecological Catastrophe
5. Global System Collapse
6. Major Asteroid Impact
7. Super volcano
8. Synthetic Biology
9. Nanotechnology
10. Artificial Intelligence (AI)
11. Unknown Consequences
12. Bad Global Governance
“12 Risks that threaten Human Civilization”
Global Challenges Foundation, 2015 report
Risks not included:
• Destructive solar flares
• Vacuum collapse of the universe
• Gamma-ray burst or supernova
No effective countermeasures

10. • Thinking about and planning for Undesirable futures can be
quite productive:
• Awareness
• Mitigation
• Preparation
• Avoidance
• Thinking about and planning for Desirable futures can be quite
productive:
• Awareness
• Strengthen
• Preparation
• Active Reaching

11. The most likely apocalypse in our future:
An Indian-Pakistani nuclear exchange
BY THOMAS E. RICKS
MARCH 8, 2011
“The greatest risk for nuclear war in our
time is the scenario in which a Pakistan-
based terror group…touches off a
sequence of escalation that results in a
nuclear strike and response.”
"The impact on the United States is
potentially larger than people realize…
(it could) cause enough soot to go up into
the upper atmosphere that will stay for a
long time, to seriously interfere with
global agriculture." Matthew Bunn

12. Possibilities – Uncertainties

13. • Supply & Demand; Product mix, Geography,
• Technology; Information, Automation, Virtuality, Sensors
• Pipeline Regulation; Placement, Maintenance, Retirement
• Materials; Limits, NanoTech,
• Incidents; Aging Infrastructure, Pushing Limits, Acts of Terror
• Capable People; Education, Training, Artificial Intelligence
• Industry Image; Utility, Exploiter, Environmentally Friendly
• Land Rights; Legislation, Concentration of Wealth
• Beyond Capitalism; UBI, B Corps, 1%

14. • Technology: Labor Replacement by Machines, Material Science
Advancement, Intelligence Replacement by Machines
• Geography: Shifting Global Power Centers - China and India
Take #1 and 2 spots by 2050 (PWC)
• Population pressures: 9.8 Billion by 2050 (UN)
• Risk Factors: See previous slides
• Resource Scarcity/Abundance: Population pressures, Moving
Agricultural Belts
• Profit Motivation: Space law

16. • First conceived in 1895 by Russian Scientist
Konstantin Tsiolkovsky inspired by Eiffel Tower
• 22,236 Miles – 5 days at 200 mph –
Diameter of the Earth?
• The Climber looks like a truck to me – need a
pipeline
• What goes up in the pipeline?
• Fuel, Water, Air,
• Amazing Engineering challenge for hydraulics
and materials
• Regulations? Laws? Governmental Oversight?
Insurance?

17. • Plan to have a settlement of 1 Million people on Mars by 2050
• People never live where the resources are
• Any Pipelines will have to be manufactured, installed, tested,
operated and maintained completely from local materials.
• Pipe will have to be made of local materials, most likely by
additive manufacturing, with precious nanotech components
imported from earth
• Labor?
• Mechanical technology?
• Inspection?
• Maintenance?

19. • By 2052 most pipeline installations will be performed by boring
machines with automated tailing transportation, engineered by
loose knit teams of specialists organized by consulting units with
global reach.
• Very little human intervention will be required for complete
drilling operations

20. • Many new pipelines will be for water
• Land rights legislation will need updating
• Protests will take many forms – including hacking and peaceful
demonstrations.

21. • Security will be more about protecting control of the asset and
less about physical damage.
• ILI inspection for newly installed pipelines may be continuous
performed by sensors integral to the pipe material itself.
• Could we see our first completely autonomous repair by 2052?

23. • Tactical thinking gets you to tomorrow, Strategic thinking means
you’re prepared for it.
• It’s hard to mitigate a risk or take advantage of an opportunity
if you aren’t aware of the possibility.
• “The future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed”, Bill
Gibson ~ 1992

24. • Global Challenges Foundation, 2016 report
• The Case for Mars, Robert Zubrin, Arthur C. Clark, 1996
• Jumping Off The Planet, David Gerrold, 2000
• 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next 40 Years, Jorgen
Randers, 2012
• “Humans Need Not Apply”, YouTube video, C.G.P. Grey, 2014
https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU