The document discusses various topics related to futuring and innovation including: - Defining what a futurist is and examples of early futurists like H.G. Wells and Jules Verne. - Techniques for forecasting the future like the Delphi method, scenario writing, and analyzing forces of change. - Examples of past predictions and technological innovations that came to fruition as well as those that did not. - The impact of emerging technologies and social media in enabling new forms of communication, collaboration, and sharing of information in real-time across the world.

1. Futuring and Innovation
Dr. Cynthia Calongne, Colorado Technical University

2. Agenda
 What is a Futurist?
 Thoughts about the future
 Reflections on Forecasts
 Visioning
 Forecasting techniques
 The NMC Horizon Report
 Science fiction, science fact
 Research
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3. 3

4. Who is a Futurist?
 H.G. Wells – Professors of Foresight
 Early -- 40 years before academic futures studies
 Jules Verne – futurist and futurologist
 World Future Society
 TechCast
 Are you a futurist?

5. Think Tanks
Futurist, nuclear scientist,
and systems theorist
Predicted the rise of Japan
as a world power
Rand
Corporation, 1948
The Hudson Institute, 1961
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6. Thoughts about the Future
 “We can't solve problems by using the same kind of
thinking we used when we created them.” (Albert
Einstein)
 “Science without religion is lame, religion without
science is blind.” (Albert Einstein)

7. Forecasts by Herman Kahn
1. Nuclear explosives for excavation & power
2. Weather and climate control
3. More reliable propaganda and education for affecting behavior
4. Human hibernation – months to years
5. Improved capability to change the sex of children & adults
6. Substantial increase in life expectancy and rejuvenation
7. High quality medical care for underdeveloped nations
8. Permanent manned satellite and lunar installations & travel
9. Life systems for terrestrial installations – outer space travel
10. Undersea installations and colonies
From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan
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8. Forecasts by Herman Kahn 2
11. Automated grocery and department stores
12. Extensive use of robots and machines performing mundane tasks
13. Chemical methods for improving learning and memory
14. Greater use of underground buildings
15. Very low cost buildings for home and business use
16. Simulated, planned and even programmed dreams
17. Inexpensive worldwide transportation of humans and cargo
18. Inexpensive road-free transportation
19. Artificial moons and other methods for lighting large areas at night
From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan
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9. Thoughts About the Future II
 "Any useful idea about the future should appear to be
ridiculous." (Jim Dator)
 "A part of our future appears to be evolutionary and
unpredictable, and another part looks developmental
and predictable. Our challenge is to invent the first and
discover the second." (John Smart)
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10. Visioning Activity
 If you had unlimited Time, Money and Talent,
what would you accomplish and acquire?
 List 10 ideas for each category
Categories:
 Education, Job/Research,
Philosophical/Religious, Travel, Home
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11. Forecasting and Futuring Ideas
 Will Ferrell’s Tour of Tech That Never Took
 http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_future_ferrell/all/1
 The World Future Society http://www.wfs.org/
 Influx: 17 thoughts & ideas on forecasting the future from Paul Saffo
 http://influxinsights.com/2008/technology/17-thoughts-and-ideas-on-fore
 New York Times: And the Pursuit of Happiness, Maira Kalman blog
 http://kalman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/30/can-do/
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12. Major Forecasting Techniques
 Technique  Description
 Delphi method  Brainstorming
 Nominal group  Delphi - leader
 Case study  Analogous problems
 S-Curve  Looking beyond trends
 Correlation analysis  Past to future tech
 Lead-user analysis  Leading edge users
 Analytic hierarchy  Forces influencing development
 Systems dynamics  Dynamic relationships model
 Cross-impact analysis  Interrelated future events
 Relevance trees  Goal trees & probability
 Scenario writing  Alternate future views
From p. 167 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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13. The Methods, Forces and Social Media
 Delphi Method – waves of independent contributions
 The Forces: Influences on potential innovations
 Technological, economical, cultural, ethical, legal, political
 Horizon Report over the years: cloud computing, semantic
Web, mobile computing, virtual worlds, smart objects,
game-based learning, eBooks and learning analytics
 Social media culture shift – consumers become producers
 Tools: Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, Flickr, & Wikis
 Global awareness, creativity, community and collaboration
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15. The one Web
We are the computer
From Ted Talks, 2007 [8]
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16. Political and Societal Influences
 “Futurists predict societal change.”
 Political impact on futurism
 The Newtonian Socialists
 Extending the Story of Stuff to John Stuart Mill’s
taxation of goods and economic subsidization
 http://www.storyofstuff.org/movies-all/story-of-stuff/

17. The Fortune Sellers by Sherden
 In 1990, 115 professors, writers and leaders noted those
who had ideas that were significant, fresh & profound
 Alvin Toffler
 Mikhail Gorbachev
 Nelson Mandela
 Arthur C. Clarke
 Gene Roddenberry
 Peter Drucker
 John Naisbitt
 David Suzuki
 Marilyn Ferguson
 Hazel Henderson

18. Top Ten Futurists from the 80s
 Alvin Toffler – Future Shock & 1st Univ futuring course
 Mikhail Gorbachev – last head of state in the USSR
 Nelson Mandela – political activist - social change
 Arthur C. Clarke – 2001: A Space Odyssey
 Gene Roddenberry – Star Trek
 Peter Drucker- America’s Next Twenty Years
 John Naisbitt – Megatrends
 David Suzuki – Inventing the Future, environmental
 Marilyn Ferguson, Assoc of Humanistic Psychology
 Hazel Henderson – The Politics of Money

19. Why do things work that way?
Bryan Alexander’s Twitter feed [5]
In hindsight, Berners-Lee wouldn’t use
http://
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20. At age 14, W. Kamkwamba built a windmill
from a book, using a bicycle and 4 blades
It powers 4 bulbs and 2 radios with 12 watts
Next step: to build a 20-watt irrigation system
Windmills as part of a sustainable future – Ted Talks [1]
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21. Sustainability
Changing viewpoints as we gaze into the future
Stewart Brand on the 4 environmental heresies [2]
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22. A train moves down a narrow track
as tables and shops recede into
the walls.
In a matter of seconds, a thriving
marketplace emerges. [2]
(6 minutes into the S. Brand video)
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23. Harmony
Cities are green
Stewart Brand on
Ted Talks
Bangkok train – co-existing
with the marketplace [2]
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24. The Influence of Social Media
Community
Turbo Tax chat
40% of customer questions were
answered by other customers
with the highest accuracy rate in 24 years
Disaster Response
May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake
90,000 lost, schools destroyed
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25. Clay Shirky – How social media can make history
“The tools don’t get socially Media is global, social, ubiquitous & cheap
interesting until they get Most of the media is no longer produced by
technologically boring.” [4] professionals [4]
Consumers become producers -Twitter, YouTube, Flickr, Facebook
The same tools support them. - The influence of social media
People listening all over the world Photos and Twitter’s micro blogging
news broadcast real-time information on
Twitter announced the quake first the aftermath of China’s earthquakes
During the previous quake, China June 2, 2009 - China blocked access to
announced it 3 months after it Twitter, Flickr, and Hotmail two days
happened. before the anniversary of the
Tiananmen Square protests
The Great Firewall of China – successful censorship of social media [4]
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26. Perception
Global and poignant [3]
Broadcasting the news
as it is happening [4]
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27. Technology Forecasters
 Evolution  Futurists
 Scientific Discovery  Einstein
 Inventions  Inventors
 Science Fiction  Jules Verne
 Futurology  H.G. Wells
 Tech Forecasting  Herman Kahn
 Dr. Strangelove
 Think Tanks
 Rand Corporation  www.rand.org/
 Forecasters
 www.forecastinternational.com/
 Forecast International
From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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28. Japan’s Technology Forecasts
 Characteristics  Bottom-up view, begins with
 Structured approach  Firms
 Organized  Universities, research institutes
 Firms, universities  National associations
 Feedback loops  Long term vision
 Chief strategists (MITI)  Govt ministries, MITI, JRDC
 Micromanagement
 Long term technology forecasts
 ERATO projects
 Science & Tech Agency
 Institute of Future Technology
 Directing Japanese R&D
 Economic Planning Agency
investments
 JICST
From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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29. Quantum Computing
Research
Matt Purkeypile on a Practical
Quantum Computer Programming Framework [6]
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30. Web Services
Proposal Defense
By Paul Yanzick
Communicating by voice, local
chat text, instant messages and
visually.
Includes a meeting log for easy
reference.
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31. Real and Virtual Meetings
Blended reality meetings & collaborative work in 2006
MacArthur Foundation panel from Harvard and MIT
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32. Global Learning Forum
Research consortium
Researchers and game designers
- Explore the potential
- Imagine breakthrough ideas
- Create transformations
New horizons in game simulation
and virtual world research
Blending social media and virtual worlds
This is not your grandmother’s internet
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33. Exploring the Future in SL
 Collaboration in a  Learning extends
worldwide community beyond the classroom
 Architecture (AWG)  Seminars
 Cultural venues  Symposia
 Second Life groups  Scientific programs
 Educational networks  Research & Development
 Co-author papers
Present your research, collaborate with other scholars, network and share ideas,
and advance the state of technology.
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34. Gazing Into the Future
 Web science research initiative
 Multidisciplinary approach to emerging media
 Focuses on technology, tools, behavior and Web engineering
 For more information, visit:
 What is the Web Science Initiative
 http://webscience.org/
 Proposed curriculum and courses offered around the world
 http://webscience.org/wiki/Curriculum
 The Tetherless World & TW Research Constellation
 http://tw.rpi.edu/wiki/Main_Page
 http://tw.rpi.edu/launch/
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35. Resources
 Teaching using emerging media
Lyr Lobo in Second Life
 http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/
 Visual tour of social media & virtual worlds
 http://www.slideshare.net/lyrlobo/presentations
 Animoto videos from social media and game simulation research
 http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/global-learning-forum-event-tour.html
 http://animoto.com/play/giF9IkshVTXZ3bewYUsXnA
 http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/game-simulation-tour-in-second-life.html
 http://animoto.com/play/ktooen8b0XqwLp6HnNEGtA
 http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/animoto-video-second-life-summer-09.html
 http://animoto.com/play/z2TLLCwEoOt2qonSa5S5Gw
 Constitution Day, Graduation Party – How music changes a video
 http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/10/how-music-changes-video.html
 Constitution Day, Graduation party 2009 – original music
 http://animoto.com/play/15T3PngF3l68010ryw24SQ
 Remix http://animoto.com/play/joPGETsdYQBdcLqIlCwTkQ
 Questions? Contact
 Cynthia Calongne on Facebook & at 719-337-1526 (cell); email calongne@pcisys.net
 Lyr Lobo in Second Life; Twitter: lyrlobo; Skype: Lyr Lobo; Slideshare: lyrlobo
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36. Videos and References
 [1] William Kamkwamba on building a windmill
 http://www.ted.com/talks/william_kamkwamba_on_building_a_windmill.html
 [2] Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’
 http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/stewart_brand_proclaims_4_environmental_heresies.html
 1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week!
 [3] Kdingflickr’s photostream - China’s biggest earthquake in 32 years
 http://www.flickr.com/photos/hzdkl/tags/2008chinasbiggestearthquakein32years/
 [4] Clay Shirky how social media can make history
 http://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.html
 [5] Bryan Alexander ‘s Twitter Feed http://tinyurl.com/yhdeo5q on Berners-Lee
 http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article6872873.ece
 [6] Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove
 http://mpurkeypile.blogspot.com/2009/08/animoto-video-of-cove.html
 [7] Sherdan, H. (1999). The Fortune Sellers. The Big Business of Buying and
Selling Predications. Wiley, New York.
 [8] Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web.
 http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html
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37. Featured Videos
 The Story of Stuff
 http://www.storyofstuff.org/movies-all/story-of-stuff/
 Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’
 http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/stewart_brand_proclaims_4_environmental_heresies.html
 1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week!
 Clay Shirky how social media can make history
 http://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.html
 Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove
 http://mpurkeypile.blogspot.com/2009/08/animoto-video-of-cove.html
 Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web.
 http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html
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