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Future of energy

The document outlines the future of energy through a historical overview, the current global energy situation, and projections for future scenarios, particularly for Nordic countries. It highlights the dominance of fossil fuels, the significant implications of climate change, and the need for innovative, diversified energy solutions to mitigate potential global collapse. Various scenarios for energy's future are discussed, including collapse, technological breakthroughs, and sustainable development, along with potential strategies for adaptation and transition.

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FUTURE OF ENERGY MICHEL SALOFF-COSTE 2015 05 15 Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Future of energy 1. A short history of energy in past civilizations 2. The actual global situation 3. Four scenarios for the future of energy 4. Scenarios implementations for Nordic countries 5. Discussion on the future of energy
1. A short history of energy in past civilizations
• Antique world – Biomass – Manpower /animal power • Middle-ages / Renaissance – Hydraulic and wind-power • Industrial revolution – Coal and steam-engine – Oil and internal-combustion engine – Electricity and information
5
2. The actual global situation
• Fossil fuels dominant - coal, oil, natural gas • Growth of the demand - emerging countries • New concerns - energy supply - global warming
Share of the world primary energy supply Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Biomass and waste Hydroelectricity Source: IEA (WEO 2012) – 2010 Figures
1 toe / cap. 2 toe / cap. 2000 20501970 1,5 1,7 2010 202019901980 1,35 2,1 3 toe/ cap. 2030 2040 Trend Limitation scenario Degrowth scenario Evolution of the energy consumption per capita (world)
IPCC Scenario 4 th report
Projections of global average surface temperature show we’re heading for a climatic state far outside the range of variation of the last 1000 years. We are on the way to making the world hotter in the 21st century than it has been in the last million years. Temperature, past and future
• Computer simulations by the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab • Warming under a doubling of CO2 from the pre-industrial level • Warming under a quadrupling from pre-industrial level. • Under quadrupling CO2, North hemisphere mid-continent average warming is 8 - 12 C
Global sea-level rise as recorded by satellite measurements (upper line with linear trend), with IPCC projections (2001) and range of uncertainty
2 toe 4 toe 5 CO2emissions /cap.(t/year) 1 toe 10 Sc. I 2°( 2 - 3) Sc. II - III - IV 4°( 3 - 6) Sc. V - VI 5 °( 4 - 8) Energy precarity Ecological catastrophe 2050: 9.3 Billion people Energy consumption (toe/cap.year) 80% fossil 60% fossil 3 toe « Growth » « Technology » « Degrowth » « Carbon intensive » 50% fossil Energy - climate scenario
210020502000 Non fossil Energy share % 100 50 0 100 50 Europe ? World Energy transition deployment
Long term scenario 1800 22502050 Long term scenario (I) Energy consumption per capita Long term scenario (II) Long term scenario (III) Nuclear (fission/fusion) ? Renewable energy sources ? Collapse
Population breakdown in case of a planetary state shift 1,7 Billion inhabitants 7 Billions inhabitants 1900 2100 World population 9 Billions inhabitants 2011 20501950 Breakdown New Middle-ages and slow recovery
COMPLEXITY Higher far of equilibrium Lower entropy Higher density of free energy flow Higher structural complexity Higher organization levels TIME Dynamic stability on level n Introduction of fluctuations Evolution 2nd order jumping transition Breakdown, collapse Possible new levels (not realized yet)
Find a pragmatic way • Find a pragmatic way, compatible with general interest • No solution really satisfactory for global warming. May be a too big problem for humanity to solve • High risk of global collapse: need to combine all the solutions (reduce the demand, diversify the sources, innovate) • Define coherent and rational, rather than ideological or emotional choices
Reducing the energy consumption • Sobriety, frugality - Using less matter and energy • Efficiency - Technology • New ways of life - Autonomy, resilience - Infrastructures
Progress and potential disruptions o Incremental progress rather than disruptions o Comparatively slow progress (shale gas) o Huge investments required for a low-carbon economy o Energy storage remains a major bottle-neck o Surprises cannot be excluded!
Energy choices and world view United States, China: • Power and domination: cheap energy • United States: to control space and communications, shale gas • China: to became the World center, coal Europe: • The European dream • Post-industrial, end-of-the-work society • Internet-like access to energy
Primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions CO2emissions/inh(t/year) Energy consumption (toe/inh year) 2 4 6 8 toe 9 1 3 5 7 18 United-States 9 China France Germany Japan India Denmark 1,5 t CO2 / toe 2,7 t CO2 / toe World Year 2011, source BP St. Rev.+ EDGAR Data base Sweden 3,7 t CO2 / toe Austria
3. Four scenarios for the future of energy
Scenario Purple: -- Scenario Red : +- Scenario Orange : ++ Scenario Yellow : -+ Four scenarios for the future of energy
Collapse High probability in case of business as usual End of big mammals Planet will recover Mostly bad for humans and animals Scenario Purple: --
Clash of civilizations As resources will be rare, cultures and continents will fight again each others Real politic logic Huntington vision American, Chinese and Russian temptation Perhaps no winner this time! Scenario Red : +-
Technology break through Nano Info Bio Convergence Trans-humanism The Californian and scientists “way” High inequality, social disruption and ecological disinterest Scenario Orange : ++
Scenario Yellow : -+ Sustainable development Transformation Techno Socio Eco Global peace Knowledge society Systemic approach of the economy, society and ecology Trans-disciplinarian vision
4. Scenarios’ implementations for Nordic countries
CO2emissions/inh(t/year) Energy consumption (toe/inh year) 2 4 6 8 toe 9 1 3 5 7 18 United-States 9 China France Germany Japan India Denmark 1,5 t CO2 / toe 2,7 t CO2 / toe World Year 2011, source BP St. Rev.+ EDGAR Data base Sweden 3,7 t CO2 / toe Austria Primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions
Samsø has a new attraction – the Energy Academy close to the picturesque harbor village and tourist magnet Ballen. Samsø has amassed a great deal of concrete experiences with the implementation of a broad variety of local renewable energy project, from wind turbines to CO2 neutral district heating plants, rapeseed oil tractors and solar energy panels. This experience can be drawn upon through the Academy and research workers and scientists from at home and abroad spend time at the Academy doing research based on the easy access to all these different energy systems, where windmills, straw-based districting heating and thermal solar panels systems and the people who initiated them are close at hand. The Academy also functions as a conference center where companies, scientists and politicians can discuss renewable energy, energy savings and new technologies. Samsø Energy and Environment Office, Samsø Energy Agency and the Samsø branch office of the Danish Energy Service reside in the Energy Academy. Samsø
CONCLUSION
Four typical type of illusion and “vanity” • Just wait the end of the cycle: fatalism • Return to old traditional solution: fundamentalism • Hope that science will solve problems: scientism • Prepare our self and our community to a chaotic transition: a pragmatic solution but not really efficient because of the hysteresis of our global planetary ecological sociological and economic system.
Why we need a global vision? • “Business as usual” bring us in “hell” • Our actual action will have an effect on the long term that future generation would not be able to reverse even if they wish to do so • Transitional adaptation will not be sufficient and effective in front of a disruption of high amplitude which may even challenge survival probability of most of the mammals over the size of mouse!
How we can develop a new vision • Enhance the democratic process • Develop integral education • Spread integral open innovation ecosystem of research and actions • Multiply opportunity of dialogue between cultures and disciplines • Develop understanding of the past and a will to imagine new futures
Methods • We are bringing together diverse institutions that have a range of existing, relevant skills and proven methodologies for performing analyses of alternative futures and studying their implications. • Our methods include: 1. Cultivating Diversity and Otherness 2. Modelling Alternative Future Scenarios 3. Mixing High Tech and High Touch 4. Managing the Process Holistically 5. Using Trends and Dimensions 6. Establishing a Creative Process Supplying Specific and Short Term Outputs for Decision Making
1. Cultivating Diversity and Difference • Understand that a complex world needs diversity in ways of thinking. • The future will emerge from the complexity of our diversity. We cannot think of the future outside of this diversity. This is why we need to cultivate diversity, diversity of specialties, cultures, organisations. • Our research team is an answer to the need of diversity. We are coming from various different countries, fields of expertise and organisations.
2. Modelling Alternative Future Scenarios • It is possible today to model thousands of different futures, based on variations in a set of assumptions. Using existing “exploratory modelling” tools, we can provide instant visualisation of the different possibilities in a rich, multidimensional space. • Such visualisation is extraordinary helpful in becoming aware of critical factors affecting those futures.
3. Mixing High Tech and High Touch • We use the Internet and other new technologies to communicate efficiently and independently of space and time • We have regular meetings in person, with experimental workshops and innovatively designed processes.
4. Managing the Process Holistically • The rational approach must be supported by a concern for the affective process. A place must be left open for spiritual intuition and creative imagination. • We support the fact that science, art and spirituality can bring in their different domains very important insights for understanding the future. But it is also a way of life, a way to be open to the instant presence. • There is time and place in our work for moments of rationality, emotional expression and inquiry about meaning.
5. Using Trends and Dimensions • Particular attention will be given to existing qualitative trends and their re-evaluation during the course of our research. • Various polarities identified in our previous work – to be re- examined and explored further – are: transparency vs. privacy, abundance vs. scarcity, diversity vs. homogeneity, etc.
Short Term Outputs for Decision Making Cultivating Diversity and Otherness Modelling Alternative Future Scenarios Mixing High Tech and High Touch Managing the Process Holistically Using Trends and Dimensions
Planning
Date 1 Date 2 Date 3 Date 4 Planning
Thank you!
ANNEXES 1. IDEES Fondation Tuck IFP Documentation 2. Spiral Dynamics & The Practice of Policy Governance 3. Design me a planet Ten macro scenarios for a little star dust 4. What strategies of the future and organizational transformation ?
Annexe 1 IDEES Fondation Tuck IFP Documentation
I have work for 3 years for IDEES Fondation Tuck IFP the preeminent research center on Energy in France . All the documentation can be see here below and can be reach with link http://michelsaloffcoste.blogspot.fr/p/l e-groupe-de-reflexion-idees- lenergie.html My global conclusion can be fine here, “Quelle énergie à long terme pour le futur de la planète Terre ?”
Le Groupe prospective - Transition Energie et Société Animateur : Michel SALOFF-COSTE (biographie) Réunion au Château de Vert-Mont (plan d'accès) • 10 juin 2013 : Séminaire "Prospective et énergie - Conclusion du cycle de réunions" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Philippe DURANCE"Le rôle de la prospective dans le domaine de l’énergie", Alexandre ROJEY : "Énergie 2050 scénarios et perspectives" et Michel SALOFF-COSTE : "Quelle énergie à long terme pour le futur de la planète Terre ?" • 04 mars 2013 : Séminaire 12 "Nanotechnologies et énergie" >> Ordre du jour - Introduction Présentations de Alexandre ROJEY : "Les nanotechnologies et l'avenir de l'énergie" et Bernadette BENSAUDE VINCENT : "Nanotechnologies et innovation responsable" - Compte-rendu • 03 décembre 2012 : Séminaire 11 "Ruptures scientifiques et techniques" Ordre du jour - Introduction Présentations de Pierre PAPON : "Des ruptures scientifiques pourraient-elles changer la donne énergétique?", et Christian NGO : "L'avenir énergétique est-il écrit ?" - Compte-rendu • 18 octobre 2012 : Séminaire 10 "Prospective et scénarios énergétiques" >> Ordre du jour - Introduction Présentations de Jean-Eudes MONCOMBLE : "Les scénarios énergétiques à l'horizon 2050 : le point de vue du CME", Nadia MAÏZI : "L'exercice prospectif et la fabrique de scénarios énergétiques : réflexion sur les approches 2050 pour la France", Jean-Charles HOURCADE : " Politiques énergétiques, économiques et sociales ; autour de trois exemples de non prospective", Compte-rendu • 14 mai 2012 : Séminaire 9 "Feuilles de route Energie à l'horizon 2050" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Jacques PERCEBOIS et Claude MANDIL : "Rapport Energies 2050", Christian KIRCHSTEIGER : "EU Energy Roadmap 2050" et "Views on Reactor Safety Post-Fukushima" - Compte-rendu • 09 février 2012 : Séminaire 8 "Scénarios énergétiques et changement climatique" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Trevor MORGAN : "Les perspectives énergétiques de l'AIE à l'horizon 2035, conséquences sur le Changement Climatique", de Christian de PERTHUIS : "Trajectoires 2020-2050 vers une économie sobre en carbone : le cas français" et de Thierry SALOMON : "Le Scénario négaWatt 2011-2050 " - Compte rendu • 21 novembre 2011 : Séminaire 7 "Les scénarios énergétiques" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Nadine BRET-ROUZAUT "Scénarios énergétiques - Prévisions ou prospective" et de Patrick CRIQUI "Vers des sociétés sobres en carbone" - Compte rendu • 26 septembre 2011 : Séminaire 6 "Maîtrise des risques et scénarios de prospective" Ordre du jour Présentation de Jean-Paul LANGLOIS "La maîtrise des risques dans le domaine de l'énergie" - Compte rendu • 23 juin 2011 : Séminaire 5 "Géopolitique de l'énergie" Ordre du jour Présentations de Alexandre ROJEY "Rappel du fonctionnement du Think tank IDées" et de Jean-Pierre FAVENNEC : "Géopolitique de l'Energie" - Compte rendu • 05 avril 2011 : Séminaire 4 "Aspirations et modes de vie : besoins en énergie" Ordre du jour Compte rendu • 08 février 2011 : Séminaire 3 "Les ruptures technologiques" Ordre du jour Présentations de Jean-Paul LANGLOIS : "Ruptures technologiques : le rôle du nucléaire" et d'Alexandre ROJEY : "Transition fossiles => renouvelables - Les ruptures possibles" - Compte rendu • 04 novembre 2010 : Séminaire 2 "L'énergie à l'horizon 2030 et au-delà" Ordre du jour Présentation de Bruno WEYMULLER : "Vision Long Terme de l'Avenir énergétique" - Compte rendu • 02 septembre 2010 : Séminaire 1 "Anthropologie, énergie et société" Ordre du jour Présentation IDées - Présentations du Dr Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT : "Repenser l'énergie : une approche macrohistorique" et "De l'impératif d'une prospective évolutionniste" - Compte rendu
Annexe 2 Spiral Dynamics & The Practice of Policy Governance
53 Spiral Dynamics & The Practice of Policy Governance Presented by Susan S. Stratton, CAE Partners in Policy Governance®
54 What is Spiral Dynamics? • Spiral Dynamics is a powerful model and predictive theory of human development and cultural evolution • Developed by Clare Graves and further developed by Don Beck and Christopher Cowan • By exploring and describing the core intelligences and deep values that flow beneath what we believe and do, the model offers a profoundly incisive, dynamic perspective on complex matters such as:  HOW people think about things (as opposed to “what” they think)  WHY people make decisions in different ways  WHY people respond to different motivators  WHY and HOW values arise and spread  The nature of CHANGE
55 From Clare W. Graves… • “Briefly, what I am proposing is that the psychology of the mature human being is an unfolding, emergent, oscillating, spiraling process marked by progressive subordination of older, lower-behavior systems to newer, higher-order systems as man’s existential problems change.”
56 What is an integral theory? • To integrate • To bring together • To join, to link, to embrace. • In the sense of unity-in-diversity • Shared commonalities along with our wonderful differences. • The integration, alignment and synergy of multiple elements, entities, interests and motives, weaving them together to create healthy, dynamic, and comprehensive solutions to complex problems within rapidly changing, complex environments. • Keeping the whole spiral healthy, not diminishing any level.
57 What is a MEME? • A MEME reflects: • A world view • A valuing system • A level of psychological existence • A belief structure • An organizing principle • A way of thinking or a mode of adjustment • A core intelligence that forms systems and directs human behavior
58 What is a MEME? A discrete structure for thinking, not just a set of ideas, values or a cause. • Represents a core intelligence that forms systems and directs human behavior. • Impacts upon all life choices as a decision-making framework. • Manifests itself in both healthy and unhealthy forms. • Brightens and dims as Life Conditions change. Not rigid levels, but flowing waves with much overlap and interweaving, resulting in a meshwork or dynamic spiral of consciousness unfolding. Each MEME wave includes arrested, closed and open states. • Arrested = Movement to new MEME is blocked; old MEMES are available. • Closed = Psychological blindness keeps the person from seeing alternatives • Open = Centralized in a MEME system, but can move freely in any direction as shifting Life Conditions may require.
59 Basic Infrastructures Exist in Each MEME • Economic policy • Educational policy • Health care policy • Environmental policy • Law enforcement action • Political gamesmanship • Military • Churches and religion • Governance
60 QUICK SUMMARY OF VALUE SYSTEMS CODES v MEMES COLOR THEME FOCUS THINKING VALUE SYSTEMS--BOTTOM LINES LIFESTYLE Level 8 Turquoise WholeView We Holistic Harmony and Holism Lives for Wisdom Level 7 Yellow FlexFlow Me Systemic Natural Processes of Order & Change Lives for Mutuality Level 6 Green HumanBond We Humanistic Equality and Human Social Bond Lives for Harmony Level 5 Orange StriveDrive Me Materialistic Success and Material Gain Lives for Gain Level 4 Blue TruthForce We Absolutistic Authority, Stability, "One-Right- Way" Lives for Later Level 3 Red PowerGods Me Egocentric Power, Glory, Exploitation, No Boundaries Lives for Now Level 2 Purple Kin Spirits We Animistic Myths, Ancestors, Traditions, Our People Lives for Group Level 1 Beige SurvivalSense Me Automatic Staying Alive, Reactive, Basic Survival Lives for Survival
61 BEIGE Instinctive/Survivalistic MEME - starting 100,000 years ago • Basic theme: Do what you must just to stay alive • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Express-self • Uses instincts and habits just to survive • Distinct self is barely awakened or sustained • Food, water, warmth, sex, and safety have priority • Forms into survival bands to perpetuate life • Lives "off the land" much as other animals
62 PURPLE Magical/Animistic MEME - starting 50,000 years ago • Obeys the desires of the spirit being and mystical signs • Shows allegiance to chief, elders, ancestors, and the clan • Individual subsumed in group • Preserves sacred objects, places, events, and memories • Observes rites of passage, seasonal cycles, and tribal customs • Basic theme: Keep the spirits happy and the tribe's nest warm and safe • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Sacrifice self
63 RED Impulsive/Egocentric MEME - starting 10,000 years ago • The world is a jungle full of threats and predators • Breaks free from any domination or constraint to please self as self desires • Stands tall, expects attention, demands respect, and calls the shots • Enjoys self to the fullest right now without guilt or remorse • Conquers, out-foxes, and dominates other aggressive characters Basic theme: Be what you are and do what you want, regardless • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Express-self
64 BLUE Purposeful/Authoritarian MEME - starting 5,000 years ago • One sacrifices self to the transcendent Cause, Truth, or righteous Pathway • The Order enforces a code of conduct based on eternal, absolute principles • Righteous living produces stability now and guarantees future reward • Impulsivity is controlled through guilt; everybody has their proper place • Laws, regulations, and discipline build character and moral fiber • Basic theme: Life has meaning, direction, and purpose with predetermined outcomes • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Sacrifice self
65 ORANGE Achievist/Strategic MEME - starting 300 years ago • Change and advancement are inherent within the scheme of things • Progresses by learning nature's secrets and seeking out best solutions • Manipulates Earth's resources to create and spread the abundant good life • Optimistic, risk-taking, and self- reliant people deserve success • Societies prosper through strategy, technology, and competitiveness • Basic theme: Act in your own self-interest by playing the game to win • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Express-self
66 GREEN Communitarian/Egalitarian MEME - starting 150 years ago • The human spirit must be freed from greed, dogma, and divisiveness • Feelings, sensitivity, and caring supersede cold rationality • Spreads the Earth's resources and opportunities equally among all • Reaches decisions through reconciliation and consensus processes • Refreshes spirituality, brings harmony, and enriches human development • Basic theme: Seek peace within the inner self and explore, with others, the caring dimensions of community • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Sacrifice self
67 YELLOW Integrative MEME—starting 50 years ago • Life is a kaleidoscope of natural hierarchies, systems, and forms • The magnificence of existence is valued over material possessions • Flexibility, spontaneity, and functionality have the highest priority • Differences can be integrated into interdependent, natural flows • Understands that chaos and change are natural • Basic theme: Live fully and responsibly as what you are and learn to become • 2nd tier - “Being” • Express-self
68 TURQUOISE Holistic MEME—starting 30 years ago • The world is a single, dynamic organism with its own collective mind • Self is both distinct and a blended part of a larger, compassionate whole • Everything connects to everything else in ecological alignments • Energy and information permeate the Earth's total environment • Holistic, intuitive thinking and cooperative actions are to be expected • Basic theme: Experience the wholeness of existence through mind and spirit • 2nd tier - “Being” • Sacrifice self
69 Implications for Pol Gov Practice? 2 3 4 5 8 6 7
70 Implications for Pol Gov Practice Sacrifice self Structure for Living End Impact - Owner/Customer Cultivate Group Responsibility/ Embrace Diversity Board as Learning Community Board as Collective Voice Dysfunction to be resolved by PG 4 8 7 6 5 3 2
71 Stages of Change Something’s Wrong Break Out Trapped Evolutionary Option Revolutionary Option Alpha Stage New Alpha Delta Surge Beta Stage Gamma Stage Barrier
72 Stages of Change • Alpha - No worries; illusion of stability • Beta - Doubts arise; the boat is rocking • We try more of the same because nothing is wrong with the “system”— only its implementation or enforcement. • Gamma - Growing frustration; feeling trapped; acting out behaviors; self- destructive. • The Revolutionary Option against the status quo. • Demands fundamental change in structures/systems • Unrelenting “all or nothing” assault on barriers and obstacles • Defends actions by finding noble purpose in “the Cause” • Delta - Excitement and rapid change where barriers are overcome and previous restraints drop away. People take charge of their own destinies. • New Alpha - The consolidation of the ideas and coping systems that emerged during the Delta state into new systems, paradigms, and arrangements.
73 First and Second Order of Change First order change • Change occurs within a system which, itself remains unchanged. • Horizontal change • More of the same. Second order change • Mega-system shift to new paradigms, new assumptions, and new structures. • Vertical change • Reframing
74 Assess the Organization for a MEME change • Six conditions have to be met IF an individual or organization is to experience lasting change.
75 Required Conditions for Lasting Change 1. Potential for change must be present 2. Unresolved problems from a lower order must be addressed 3. Dissonance with the current MEME must be felt 4. Sufficient insight into the causes of the dissonance and awareness of alternative approaches to their resolution. 5. Specific barriers to change need to be identified and eliminated, bypassed, neutralized or reframed into something else. 6. If there is no culture of nurturing support during transformation, new MEMEs cannot bloom. • When significant change occurs, expect confusion, false starts, long learning curves and awkward assimilation while consolidation of new thinking.
76 Systemic Change Requires… • All infrastructures integrated, aligned and synergized; creating critical mass, including: • Economic policy • Educational policy • NGO activities • Environmental rules • Law enforcement action • Political gamesmanship • Community development • Churches and religion • Connecting everything to everything else!
77 PURPLE Magical/Animistic Appropriate source • Caring chieftain • Elders • From within tribe/clan • From spirit realm • From word of ancestors • Traditional ways Message • Traditional rites, rituals • Includes mystical elements and superstitions • Appeals to extended family, harmony, and safety • Recognizes blood-bonds, the folk, group • Familiar metaphors, drawings • Minimal reliance on written language.
78 RED Impulsive/Egocentric Appropriate source • Person with the recognized power • Straight-talking boss • One with something to offer • Respected (feared) other • Proven tough entity Message • Demonstrate “What’s in it for me now?” • Offer “Immediate gratification if…” • Challenges and appeals to machismo/strength • Heroic status and legendary potential • Flashy, to the point, unambiguous, strong • Simple language and fiery images/graphics.
79 BLUE Purposeful/ Authoritarian Appropriate source • Rightful, proper authority • Higher authority in the Way • Down the chain-of- command • According to the book’s rules • Person with position power • Revered Truth Keepers Message • Duty, honor, country images of discipline • Self-sacrifice for higher causes • Appeal to traditions and established norms • Use class-consciousness and knowing one’s place • Propriety, righteousness and responsibilities • Insure future rewards and delayed gratification • Assuage guilt with correct consequences.
80 ORANGE Achievist/ Strategic Appropriate source • One’s own right-thinking mind • Successful mentors and models • Credible professionals • Prosperous elite contacts • Advantageous to the self • Based in proven experience Message • Appeal to competitive advantage and leverage • Success motivations and achieving abundance • Bigger, better, newer, faster, more popular • Citations of experts and selected authorities • Profit, productivity, quality, results, win • “Best of several options.”
81 GREEN Communitarian/ Egalitarian Appropriate source • Consensual community norms • Enlightened friend/colleague • Outcome of participation • Resultant of enlightenment • Observation of events • Participative decision • Team’s collective findings Message • Enhance belonging, sharing, harmony of groups • Sensitive to human issues and care for others • Expand awareness and understanding of inner self • Symbols of equity, humanity and bonding • Build trust, openness, exploration, passages • Real people with authentic emotional displays.
82 YELLOW Integrative Appropriate source • Any information source • May adopt Beige through Green • Relevant, more useful data • Merge hard sources and hunches • Conscious and unconscious mind • Disregards status or prestige Message • Interactive, relevant media, self- accessible • Functional ‘lean’ information without fluff • The facts, the feelings and the instincts • Big picture, total systems, integrations • Connect data across fields for holistic view • Adapt, mesh, blend, access, sense, gather • Self-connecting to systems and others usefully
83 TURQUOISE - Holistic Appropriate source • Experience of discovery • Learning in communal network • Holistic conception of reality • Any being in Turquoise • Systems across the planet • Resonance with First Tier Message • Multi-dimensional chunks of insight • Renewed spirituality and sacrifice to whole • Ecological interdependency and interconnections • Macro solutions to macro problems • Community beyond nationalities • High-tech, high-touch for experiential knowing.
Annexe 3 DESIGN ME A PLANET TEN MACRO SCENARIOS FOR A LITTLE STAR DUST
TEN MACRO SCENARIOS FOR A LITTLE STAR DUST
SPEAKING WITH DIFFERENTS GROUPS I DISCOVER AFTER UNDREDS OF INTERVIEWS THAT ………..
HOW PEOPLE IMAGINE THE FUTURE WHITE TURQUOI SE YELLOW GREEN ORANGE BLUE RED PURPLE BEIGE BLACK
DEPENDING OF THEIR BELIEVE SYSTEM AND VALUES
DEPENDING OF THEIR BELIEVE SYSTEM AND VALUES
THEN WE FIND TEN MAINS FAMILY OF SCENARIOS FOR THE LONG TERM FUTURE OF THE PLANET
BLACK End of mankind. End of sun ( very long term but certain ). Meteorite (any time but little probability on short term ). Evolution trap ( high probability on the short term as we will see). A scenario usual evocate by researcher and scientist. This scenario is already happening for the more poor Environ 200 millions
BEIGE Brake of the civilization and return to survival. A scenario witch is already happening for the poorest in the suburb of big cities for environ 500 millions of person A scenario witch could append for 2/3 of mankind in the context of climate change A desperate planet who will be the first to move in the black scenario in case of famine poor ≠ miser
PURPLE Tribes of hunter gatherer, indigenous people with precious, sophisticate and very ancient culture environ 20 millions witch are in danger of destruction. How to conserve their precious insights and knowledge and their way of life But also kind of néo tribs organize in mafia way of life in the suburb of big cities. Purple future is difficult either they are assimilate by red and blue either they are push in beige and black suicide They tempt to preserve them self and their myths and ancient believe system. The purple planet is mainly in Africa, south america and oceania.
RED The empire battle for territory and resources. The red planet is the most crowded with the blue one. They are connected because the red planet is use by the blue planet as warriors. The vision of the reds is a clash of civilization and a total war for access to resources and domination. Ecological and sociological issues are for dreamers Around 2-3 billions of people are in this way of acting and thinking “real politics”
BLUE The battle for religion and legacy. The blue planet is the most crowded with the red one. They are connected because the red planet use blue planet as legitimization . The vision of the blue planet is a battle for religion and cultural dominants Around 2-3 billions of people are living and thinking this way. They see the future as the domination of their religion over the planet . They find their meaning and purpose trough the practice of their cultural tradition, they are family oriented, respect the law and they participate to debate and democracy process but only in the narrow context of their own specific culture. All others cultures appear enemies and devils. The globalization witch seems first for them a way to develop their cultural dominants is now a treats because of the obligation to accept the relativity of each cultures in public international affairs. They tempt to return to their traditional territory and preserve their culture in any form of fundamentalism
ORANGE Money and technology can solve any problem ! Let’s make money with green development……. Orange behaviors rules the word because the extraordinary grow of economy through credit, energy, technology and population have make them the most rich and powerful group, even if they are only environ one billions. They are more cynics than any other previous sub-group and manipulate the others in the context of their money games and monopolization of the planetary resources. The actual problem it is that their power came from the fact they owns the credit facility and they need grows of the economy to caution credit. They have been for years the solution they are now the problem because material grow is limited in a finish planet. They see future continuing business as usual with more or less pink and green to have fun ! They confront mankind with a veritable evolution trap because their vision is not scientifically valid, effect of pollution are deleted enough to be ignored on a short base may be fatal for mankind to terms.
GREEN Welcome in Bobo Land an the amazing beginning of the cultural creatives landscape ! Green is a nice planet ! So nice indeed ! Green people are usually more educated young and rich than the average population. They love exchange together thoughts and are open to any ideas, cultures, civilization who seem to them a interesting point of view. Equality and participation of every body in the decision process are very important for them. They are human developer's psychologist, coach and work hard to their own transformation and development. They see the future as a nice dialogue between cultures on a base of equality and awareness of the relativity of each point view ! They have difficulty to take decision and make real action and get organized. They care for the planet but after their personal development !
YELLOW The yellow people are process oriented and systemic thinkers. They see the planet as a global system in evolution where each level of organization and way of thinking have his own place depending of the context. The big gap with previous way of thinking is the positioning of economy as a subsystem of sociology and ecology and a formal critics of any form of reductionism. The problem of Yellow is that they are very few and they are oblige to live in orange society base on reductionism and money leverage Yellow people and turquoise people are the solution to the actual problem of the planet but they need to connect, get organize, propose politics and build together a new way to make society !
TURQUOISE Turquoise open the systemic vision to a integral and holistic point of view. The turquoise vision of the future is a integration and valorization of each cultures in a meta system of cultural global governance !
Time and space are illusion We are the one , only “one” is .
STRATIFIED DEMOCRACY
Annexe 3 What strategies of the future and organizational transformation ?
© Michel Saloff-Coste How to manage the evolution from the diagnosis to the action plan Michel Saloff-Coste What strategies of the future and organizational transformation ?
© Michel Saloff-Coste THE FOUR WAVES OF THE CIVILIZATION Hunting Gathering 3 000 000 years Agriculture Breeding 30 000 years Industry Commerce 300 years Creation Communication ?
© Michel Saloff-Coste Activity Tools Power Organization Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Nails Teeth Arms Legs Senses Organs Brain Nerves Osmosis with the nature Territory possession Capital availability Information innovation Myths Tribe Monarchy Kingdom Democracy State Feelings Networks THE EVOLUTION GRID
© Michel Saloff-Coste THE EVOLUTION GRID Activity Exchange Mentality Communication Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Barter Coin Money Paper Money Information Swap Animist instinctive Monotheist analogical Scientific reductionist Systemic complex Oral Personal Written Manuscript Audio-visual Mass-media Interactive Computers
© Michel Saloff-Coste APPLICATION A THE ORGANIZATIONS EVOLUTION Through the four vectors of change : Culture Management Structure Process
© Michel Saloff-Coste Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Fusion instinctive Caste analogical Equality logic Complexity creative ORGANISATIONS EVOLUTION Culture Management To weld together To fascinate To build a hierarchy To impose To adapt To negotiate To generate To inspire
© Michel Saloff-Coste Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Informal Band Classic pyramid Inversed pyramid Interactive cells ORGANISATIONS EVOLUTION Structure Process Recursive closed Formal Mechanistic Deductive Reactive Inspired Proactive
© Michel Saloff-Coste Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Client is an "objet" Client is a "user" Client is a «king» Client is a "partner" EXAMPLES The "CLIENT" The HR ’s mission Create an elite Manage the promotion The right man at the right place Everyone has his own project
© Michel Saloff-Coste Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Fascination Cooption Selection Symbiosis Recruitment Evaluation Osmosis Fitting the norm Professional skills Personal growth HUMAN RESSOURCES SYSTEMS
© Michel Saloff-Coste HUMAN RESSOURCES SYSTEMS Education Career Remuneration Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Apprenticeship Fellowship Specialization Personalization Devotion Working the way up Value Potential Adhesion Caste Professionalism Uniqueness
© Michel Saloff-Coste TWO QUESTIONS TO ANSWER How to position your organization on the path to Creation-Communication ? How to take your organization to Creation-Communication ?
© Michel Saloff-Coste LEARNING THE TOOLS OF CHANGE
© Michel Saloff-Coste The transition to the Creation- Communication age implies the transformation :  of the organization  of the individuals
© Michel Saloff-Coste FAMILIARIZATION : The stages of learning INITIATION : DEVELOPMENT : The basic concepts The methodological tools The potential of the individuals The potential of the organization
© Michel Saloff-Coste INDIVIDUALS POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT  Teaching Help in mastering the methodology of change in the professional activity  Coaching Analysis of the progress and help in using the tools over one year period
© Michel Saloff-Coste ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT Diagnosis Weakness and strength evaluation of your organization in Creation-Communication era
© Michel Saloff-Coste DIRECTED ACTION Advise the decision maker during the transformation process Emphasize strong points and soften weak points of your organization STRATEGIC CELL
© Michel Saloff-Coste ORGANIZATION TRANSFORMATION  Change plan design  Key actors familiarization with IPD principles  Management culture evolution  Structures and process transformation
© Michel Saloff-Coste REFERENCES AFPA, APPLE, DGA, EDF MERLIN GERIN, L'OREAL, FRANCE TELECOM, REEBOK, SONACOTRA, BEL, PEUGEOT, SNECMA…
© Michel Saloff-Coste

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Future of energy

  • 1.
    FUTURE OF ENERGY MICHELSALOFF-COSTE 2015 05 15 Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
  • 2.
    Future of energy 1.A short history of energy in past civilizations 2. The actual global situation 3. Four scenarios for the future of energy 4. Scenarios implementations for Nordic countries 5. Discussion on the future of energy
  • 3.
    1. A shorthistory of energy in past civilizations
  • 4.
    • Antique world –Biomass – Manpower /animal power • Middle-ages / Renaissance – Hydraulic and wind-power • Industrial revolution – Coal and steam-engine – Oil and internal-combustion engine – Electricity and information
  • 5.
  • 7.
    2. The actualglobal situation
  • 8.
    • Fossil fuelsdominant - coal, oil, natural gas • Growth of the demand - emerging countries • New concerns - energy supply - global warming
  • 9.
    Share of theworld primary energy supply Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Biomass and waste Hydroelectricity Source: IEA (WEO 2012) – 2010 Figures
  • 10.
    1 toe /cap. 2 toe / cap. 2000 20501970 1,5 1,7 2010 202019901980 1,35 2,1 3 toe/ cap. 2030 2040 Trend Limitation scenario Degrowth scenario Evolution of the energy consumption per capita (world)
  • 11.
    IPCC Scenario 4th report
  • 12.
    Projections of globalaverage surface temperature show we’re heading for a climatic state far outside the range of variation of the last 1000 years. We are on the way to making the world hotter in the 21st century than it has been in the last million years. Temperature, past and future
  • 13.
    • Computer simulationsby the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab • Warming under a doubling of CO2 from the pre-industrial level • Warming under a quadrupling from pre-industrial level. • Under quadrupling CO2, North hemisphere mid-continent average warming is 8 - 12 C
  • 14.
    Global sea-level riseas recorded by satellite measurements (upper line with linear trend), with IPCC projections (2001) and range of uncertainty
  • 15.
    2 toe 4toe 5 CO2emissions /cap.(t/year) 1 toe 10 Sc. I 2°( 2 - 3) Sc. II - III - IV 4°( 3 - 6) Sc. V - VI 5 °( 4 - 8) Energy precarity Ecological catastrophe 2050: 9.3 Billion people Energy consumption (toe/cap.year) 80% fossil 60% fossil 3 toe « Growth » « Technology » « Degrowth » « Carbon intensive » 50% fossil Energy - climate scenario
  • 16.
  • 17.
    Long term scenario 180022502050 Long term scenario (I) Energy consumption per capita Long term scenario (II) Long term scenario (III) Nuclear (fission/fusion) ? Renewable energy sources ? Collapse
  • 18.
    Population breakdown incase of a planetary state shift 1,7 Billion inhabitants 7 Billions inhabitants 1900 2100 World population 9 Billions inhabitants 2011 20501950 Breakdown New Middle-ages and slow recovery
  • 19.
    COMPLEXITY Higher far ofequilibrium Lower entropy Higher density of free energy flow Higher structural complexity Higher organization levels TIME Dynamic stability on level n Introduction of fluctuations Evolution 2nd order jumping transition Breakdown, collapse Possible new levels (not realized yet)
  • 20.
    Find a pragmaticway • Find a pragmatic way, compatible with general interest • No solution really satisfactory for global warming. May be a too big problem for humanity to solve • High risk of global collapse: need to combine all the solutions (reduce the demand, diversify the sources, innovate) • Define coherent and rational, rather than ideological or emotional choices
  • 21.
    Reducing the energyconsumption • Sobriety, frugality - Using less matter and energy • Efficiency - Technology • New ways of life - Autonomy, resilience - Infrastructures
  • 22.
    Progress and potentialdisruptions o Incremental progress rather than disruptions o Comparatively slow progress (shale gas) o Huge investments required for a low-carbon economy o Energy storage remains a major bottle-neck o Surprises cannot be excluded!
  • 23.
    Energy choices andworld view United States, China: • Power and domination: cheap energy • United States: to control space and communications, shale gas • China: to became the World center, coal Europe: • The European dream • Post-industrial, end-of-the-work society • Internet-like access to energy
  • 24.
    Primary energy consumptionand CO2 emissions CO2emissions/inh(t/year) Energy consumption (toe/inh year) 2 4 6 8 toe 9 1 3 5 7 18 United-States 9 China France Germany Japan India Denmark 1,5 t CO2 / toe 2,7 t CO2 / toe World Year 2011, source BP St. Rev.+ EDGAR Data base Sweden 3,7 t CO2 / toe Austria
  • 25.
    3. Four scenariosfor the future of energy
  • 26.
    Scenario Purple: -- ScenarioRed : +- Scenario Orange : ++ Scenario Yellow : -+ Four scenarios for the future of energy
  • 27.
    Collapse High probability incase of business as usual End of big mammals Planet will recover Mostly bad for humans and animals Scenario Purple: --
  • 28.
    Clash of civilizations Asresources will be rare, cultures and continents will fight again each others Real politic logic Huntington vision American, Chinese and Russian temptation Perhaps no winner this time! Scenario Red : +-
  • 29.
    Technology break through NanoInfo Bio Convergence Trans-humanism The Californian and scientists “way” High inequality, social disruption and ecological disinterest Scenario Orange : ++
  • 30.
    Scenario Yellow :-+ Sustainable development Transformation Techno Socio Eco Global peace Knowledge society Systemic approach of the economy, society and ecology Trans-disciplinarian vision
  • 31.
    4. Scenarios’ implementationsfor Nordic countries
  • 32.
    CO2emissions/inh(t/year) Energy consumption (toe/inhyear) 2 4 6 8 toe 9 1 3 5 7 18 United-States 9 China France Germany Japan India Denmark 1,5 t CO2 / toe 2,7 t CO2 / toe World Year 2011, source BP St. Rev.+ EDGAR Data base Sweden 3,7 t CO2 / toe Austria Primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions
  • 33.
    Samsø has anew attraction – the Energy Academy close to the picturesque harbor village and tourist magnet Ballen. Samsø has amassed a great deal of concrete experiences with the implementation of a broad variety of local renewable energy project, from wind turbines to CO2 neutral district heating plants, rapeseed oil tractors and solar energy panels. This experience can be drawn upon through the Academy and research workers and scientists from at home and abroad spend time at the Academy doing research based on the easy access to all these different energy systems, where windmills, straw-based districting heating and thermal solar panels systems and the people who initiated them are close at hand. The Academy also functions as a conference center where companies, scientists and politicians can discuss renewable energy, energy savings and new technologies. Samsø Energy and Environment Office, Samsø Energy Agency and the Samsø branch office of the Danish Energy Service reside in the Energy Academy. Samsø
  • 34.
  • 35.
    Four typical typeof illusion and “vanity” • Just wait the end of the cycle: fatalism • Return to old traditional solution: fundamentalism • Hope that science will solve problems: scientism • Prepare our self and our community to a chaotic transition: a pragmatic solution but not really efficient because of the hysteresis of our global planetary ecological sociological and economic system.
  • 36.
    Why we needa global vision? • “Business as usual” bring us in “hell” • Our actual action will have an effect on the long term that future generation would not be able to reverse even if they wish to do so • Transitional adaptation will not be sufficient and effective in front of a disruption of high amplitude which may even challenge survival probability of most of the mammals over the size of mouse!
  • 37.
    How we candevelop a new vision • Enhance the democratic process • Develop integral education • Spread integral open innovation ecosystem of research and actions • Multiply opportunity of dialogue between cultures and disciplines • Develop understanding of the past and a will to imagine new futures
  • 38.
    Methods • We arebringing together diverse institutions that have a range of existing, relevant skills and proven methodologies for performing analyses of alternative futures and studying their implications. • Our methods include: 1. Cultivating Diversity and Otherness 2. Modelling Alternative Future Scenarios 3. Mixing High Tech and High Touch 4. Managing the Process Holistically 5. Using Trends and Dimensions 6. Establishing a Creative Process Supplying Specific and Short Term Outputs for Decision Making
  • 39.
    1. Cultivating Diversityand Difference • Understand that a complex world needs diversity in ways of thinking. • The future will emerge from the complexity of our diversity. We cannot think of the future outside of this diversity. This is why we need to cultivate diversity, diversity of specialties, cultures, organisations. • Our research team is an answer to the need of diversity. We are coming from various different countries, fields of expertise and organisations.
  • 40.
    2. Modelling AlternativeFuture Scenarios • It is possible today to model thousands of different futures, based on variations in a set of assumptions. Using existing “exploratory modelling” tools, we can provide instant visualisation of the different possibilities in a rich, multidimensional space. • Such visualisation is extraordinary helpful in becoming aware of critical factors affecting those futures.
  • 41.
    3. Mixing HighTech and High Touch • We use the Internet and other new technologies to communicate efficiently and independently of space and time • We have regular meetings in person, with experimental workshops and innovatively designed processes.
  • 42.
    4. Managing theProcess Holistically • The rational approach must be supported by a concern for the affective process. A place must be left open for spiritual intuition and creative imagination. • We support the fact that science, art and spirituality can bring in their different domains very important insights for understanding the future. But it is also a way of life, a way to be open to the instant presence. • There is time and place in our work for moments of rationality, emotional expression and inquiry about meaning.
  • 43.
    5. Using Trendsand Dimensions • Particular attention will be given to existing qualitative trends and their re-evaluation during the course of our research. • Various polarities identified in our previous work – to be re- examined and explored further – are: transparency vs. privacy, abundance vs. scarcity, diversity vs. homogeneity, etc.
  • 44.
    Short Term Outputs for Decision Making Cultivating Diversityand Otherness Modelling Alternative Future Scenarios Mixing High Tech and High Touch Managing the Process Holistically Using Trends and Dimensions
  • 45.
  • 46.
    Date 1 Date 2 Date3 Date 4 Planning
  • 47.
  • 48.
    ANNEXES 1. IDEES FondationTuck IFP Documentation 2. Spiral Dynamics & The Practice of Policy Governance 3. Design me a planet Ten macro scenarios for a little star dust 4. What strategies of the future and organizational transformation ?
  • 49.
    Annexe 1 IDEES FondationTuck IFP Documentation
  • 50.
    I have workfor 3 years for IDEES Fondation Tuck IFP the preeminent research center on Energy in France . All the documentation can be see here below and can be reach with link http://michelsaloffcoste.blogspot.fr/p/l e-groupe-de-reflexion-idees- lenergie.html My global conclusion can be fine here, “Quelle énergie à long terme pour le futur de la planète Terre ?”
  • 51.
    Le Groupe prospective- Transition Energie et Société Animateur : Michel SALOFF-COSTE (biographie) Réunion au Château de Vert-Mont (plan d'accès) • 10 juin 2013 : Séminaire "Prospective et énergie - Conclusion du cycle de réunions" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Philippe DURANCE"Le rôle de la prospective dans le domaine de l’énergie", Alexandre ROJEY : "Énergie 2050 scénarios et perspectives" et Michel SALOFF-COSTE : "Quelle énergie à long terme pour le futur de la planète Terre ?" • 04 mars 2013 : Séminaire 12 "Nanotechnologies et énergie" >> Ordre du jour - Introduction Présentations de Alexandre ROJEY : "Les nanotechnologies et l'avenir de l'énergie" et Bernadette BENSAUDE VINCENT : "Nanotechnologies et innovation responsable" - Compte-rendu • 03 décembre 2012 : Séminaire 11 "Ruptures scientifiques et techniques" Ordre du jour - Introduction Présentations de Pierre PAPON : "Des ruptures scientifiques pourraient-elles changer la donne énergétique?", et Christian NGO : "L'avenir énergétique est-il écrit ?" - Compte-rendu • 18 octobre 2012 : Séminaire 10 "Prospective et scénarios énergétiques" >> Ordre du jour - Introduction Présentations de Jean-Eudes MONCOMBLE : "Les scénarios énergétiques à l'horizon 2050 : le point de vue du CME", Nadia MAÏZI : "L'exercice prospectif et la fabrique de scénarios énergétiques : réflexion sur les approches 2050 pour la France", Jean-Charles HOURCADE : " Politiques énergétiques, économiques et sociales ; autour de trois exemples de non prospective", Compte-rendu • 14 mai 2012 : Séminaire 9 "Feuilles de route Energie à l'horizon 2050" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Jacques PERCEBOIS et Claude MANDIL : "Rapport Energies 2050", Christian KIRCHSTEIGER : "EU Energy Roadmap 2050" et "Views on Reactor Safety Post-Fukushima" - Compte-rendu • 09 février 2012 : Séminaire 8 "Scénarios énergétiques et changement climatique" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Trevor MORGAN : "Les perspectives énergétiques de l'AIE à l'horizon 2035, conséquences sur le Changement Climatique", de Christian de PERTHUIS : "Trajectoires 2020-2050 vers une économie sobre en carbone : le cas français" et de Thierry SALOMON : "Le Scénario négaWatt 2011-2050 " - Compte rendu • 21 novembre 2011 : Séminaire 7 "Les scénarios énergétiques" >> Ordre du jour Présentations de Nadine BRET-ROUZAUT "Scénarios énergétiques - Prévisions ou prospective" et de Patrick CRIQUI "Vers des sociétés sobres en carbone" - Compte rendu • 26 septembre 2011 : Séminaire 6 "Maîtrise des risques et scénarios de prospective" Ordre du jour Présentation de Jean-Paul LANGLOIS "La maîtrise des risques dans le domaine de l'énergie" - Compte rendu • 23 juin 2011 : Séminaire 5 "Géopolitique de l'énergie" Ordre du jour Présentations de Alexandre ROJEY "Rappel du fonctionnement du Think tank IDées" et de Jean-Pierre FAVENNEC : "Géopolitique de l'Energie" - Compte rendu • 05 avril 2011 : Séminaire 4 "Aspirations et modes de vie : besoins en énergie" Ordre du jour Compte rendu • 08 février 2011 : Séminaire 3 "Les ruptures technologiques" Ordre du jour Présentations de Jean-Paul LANGLOIS : "Ruptures technologiques : le rôle du nucléaire" et d'Alexandre ROJEY : "Transition fossiles => renouvelables - Les ruptures possibles" - Compte rendu • 04 novembre 2010 : Séminaire 2 "L'énergie à l'horizon 2030 et au-delà" Ordre du jour Présentation de Bruno WEYMULLER : "Vision Long Terme de l'Avenir énergétique" - Compte rendu • 02 septembre 2010 : Séminaire 1 "Anthropologie, énergie et société" Ordre du jour Présentation IDées - Présentations du Dr Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT : "Repenser l'énergie : une approche macrohistorique" et "De l'impératif d'une prospective évolutionniste" - Compte rendu
  • 52.
    Annexe 2 Spiral Dynamics& The Practice of Policy Governance
  • 53.
    53 Spiral Dynamics & ThePractice of Policy Governance Presented by Susan S. Stratton, CAE Partners in Policy Governance®
  • 54.
    54 What is SpiralDynamics? • Spiral Dynamics is a powerful model and predictive theory of human development and cultural evolution • Developed by Clare Graves and further developed by Don Beck and Christopher Cowan • By exploring and describing the core intelligences and deep values that flow beneath what we believe and do, the model offers a profoundly incisive, dynamic perspective on complex matters such as:  HOW people think about things (as opposed to “what” they think)  WHY people make decisions in different ways  WHY people respond to different motivators  WHY and HOW values arise and spread  The nature of CHANGE
  • 55.
    55 From Clare W.Graves… • “Briefly, what I am proposing is that the psychology of the mature human being is an unfolding, emergent, oscillating, spiraling process marked by progressive subordination of older, lower-behavior systems to newer, higher-order systems as man’s existential problems change.”
  • 56.
    56 What is anintegral theory? • To integrate • To bring together • To join, to link, to embrace. • In the sense of unity-in-diversity • Shared commonalities along with our wonderful differences. • The integration, alignment and synergy of multiple elements, entities, interests and motives, weaving them together to create healthy, dynamic, and comprehensive solutions to complex problems within rapidly changing, complex environments. • Keeping the whole spiral healthy, not diminishing any level.
  • 57.
    57 What is aMEME? • A MEME reflects: • A world view • A valuing system • A level of psychological existence • A belief structure • An organizing principle • A way of thinking or a mode of adjustment • A core intelligence that forms systems and directs human behavior
  • 58.
    58 What is aMEME? A discrete structure for thinking, not just a set of ideas, values or a cause. • Represents a core intelligence that forms systems and directs human behavior. • Impacts upon all life choices as a decision-making framework. • Manifests itself in both healthy and unhealthy forms. • Brightens and dims as Life Conditions change. Not rigid levels, but flowing waves with much overlap and interweaving, resulting in a meshwork or dynamic spiral of consciousness unfolding. Each MEME wave includes arrested, closed and open states. • Arrested = Movement to new MEME is blocked; old MEMES are available. • Closed = Psychological blindness keeps the person from seeing alternatives • Open = Centralized in a MEME system, but can move freely in any direction as shifting Life Conditions may require.
  • 59.
    59 Basic Infrastructures Existin Each MEME • Economic policy • Educational policy • Health care policy • Environmental policy • Law enforcement action • Political gamesmanship • Military • Churches and religion • Governance
  • 60.
    60 QUICK SUMMARY OF VALUESYSTEMS CODES v MEMES COLOR THEME FOCUS THINKING VALUE SYSTEMS--BOTTOM LINES LIFESTYLE Level 8 Turquoise WholeView We Holistic Harmony and Holism Lives for Wisdom Level 7 Yellow FlexFlow Me Systemic Natural Processes of Order & Change Lives for Mutuality Level 6 Green HumanBond We Humanistic Equality and Human Social Bond Lives for Harmony Level 5 Orange StriveDrive Me Materialistic Success and Material Gain Lives for Gain Level 4 Blue TruthForce We Absolutistic Authority, Stability, "One-Right- Way" Lives for Later Level 3 Red PowerGods Me Egocentric Power, Glory, Exploitation, No Boundaries Lives for Now Level 2 Purple Kin Spirits We Animistic Myths, Ancestors, Traditions, Our People Lives for Group Level 1 Beige SurvivalSense Me Automatic Staying Alive, Reactive, Basic Survival Lives for Survival
  • 61.
    61 BEIGE Instinctive/Survivalistic MEME -starting 100,000 years ago • Basic theme: Do what you must just to stay alive • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Express-self • Uses instincts and habits just to survive • Distinct self is barely awakened or sustained • Food, water, warmth, sex, and safety have priority • Forms into survival bands to perpetuate life • Lives "off the land" much as other animals
  • 62.
    62 PURPLE Magical/Animistic MEME -starting 50,000 years ago • Obeys the desires of the spirit being and mystical signs • Shows allegiance to chief, elders, ancestors, and the clan • Individual subsumed in group • Preserves sacred objects, places, events, and memories • Observes rites of passage, seasonal cycles, and tribal customs • Basic theme: Keep the spirits happy and the tribe's nest warm and safe • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Sacrifice self
  • 63.
    63 RED Impulsive/Egocentric MEME -starting 10,000 years ago • The world is a jungle full of threats and predators • Breaks free from any domination or constraint to please self as self desires • Stands tall, expects attention, demands respect, and calls the shots • Enjoys self to the fullest right now without guilt or remorse • Conquers, out-foxes, and dominates other aggressive characters Basic theme: Be what you are and do what you want, regardless • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Express-self
  • 64.
    64 BLUE Purposeful/Authoritarian MEME -starting 5,000 years ago • One sacrifices self to the transcendent Cause, Truth, or righteous Pathway • The Order enforces a code of conduct based on eternal, absolute principles • Righteous living produces stability now and guarantees future reward • Impulsivity is controlled through guilt; everybody has their proper place • Laws, regulations, and discipline build character and moral fiber • Basic theme: Life has meaning, direction, and purpose with predetermined outcomes • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Sacrifice self
  • 65.
    65 ORANGE Achievist/Strategic MEME -starting 300 years ago • Change and advancement are inherent within the scheme of things • Progresses by learning nature's secrets and seeking out best solutions • Manipulates Earth's resources to create and spread the abundant good life • Optimistic, risk-taking, and self- reliant people deserve success • Societies prosper through strategy, technology, and competitiveness • Basic theme: Act in your own self-interest by playing the game to win • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Express-self
  • 66.
    66 GREEN Communitarian/Egalitarian MEME -starting 150 years ago • The human spirit must be freed from greed, dogma, and divisiveness • Feelings, sensitivity, and caring supersede cold rationality • Spreads the Earth's resources and opportunities equally among all • Reaches decisions through reconciliation and consensus processes • Refreshes spirituality, brings harmony, and enriches human development • Basic theme: Seek peace within the inner self and explore, with others, the caring dimensions of community • 1st Tier-Subsistence • Sacrifice self
  • 67.
    67 YELLOW Integrative MEME—starting 50years ago • Life is a kaleidoscope of natural hierarchies, systems, and forms • The magnificence of existence is valued over material possessions • Flexibility, spontaneity, and functionality have the highest priority • Differences can be integrated into interdependent, natural flows • Understands that chaos and change are natural • Basic theme: Live fully and responsibly as what you are and learn to become • 2nd tier - “Being” • Express-self
  • 68.
    68 TURQUOISE Holistic MEME—starting 30years ago • The world is a single, dynamic organism with its own collective mind • Self is both distinct and a blended part of a larger, compassionate whole • Everything connects to everything else in ecological alignments • Energy and information permeate the Earth's total environment • Holistic, intuitive thinking and cooperative actions are to be expected • Basic theme: Experience the wholeness of existence through mind and spirit • 2nd tier - “Being” • Sacrifice self
  • 69.
    69 Implications for PolGov Practice? 2 3 4 5 8 6 7
  • 70.
    70 Implications for PolGov Practice Sacrifice self Structure for Living End Impact - Owner/Customer Cultivate Group Responsibility/ Embrace Diversity Board as Learning Community Board as Collective Voice Dysfunction to be resolved by PG 4 8 7 6 5 3 2
  • 71.
    71 Stages of Change Something’s Wrong BreakOut Trapped Evolutionary Option Revolutionary Option Alpha Stage New Alpha Delta Surge Beta Stage Gamma Stage Barrier
  • 72.
    72 Stages of Change •Alpha - No worries; illusion of stability • Beta - Doubts arise; the boat is rocking • We try more of the same because nothing is wrong with the “system”— only its implementation or enforcement. • Gamma - Growing frustration; feeling trapped; acting out behaviors; self- destructive. • The Revolutionary Option against the status quo. • Demands fundamental change in structures/systems • Unrelenting “all or nothing” assault on barriers and obstacles • Defends actions by finding noble purpose in “the Cause” • Delta - Excitement and rapid change where barriers are overcome and previous restraints drop away. People take charge of their own destinies. • New Alpha - The consolidation of the ideas and coping systems that emerged during the Delta state into new systems, paradigms, and arrangements.
  • 73.
    73 First and SecondOrder of Change First order change • Change occurs within a system which, itself remains unchanged. • Horizontal change • More of the same. Second order change • Mega-system shift to new paradigms, new assumptions, and new structures. • Vertical change • Reframing
  • 74.
    74 Assess the Organization fora MEME change • Six conditions have to be met IF an individual or organization is to experience lasting change.
  • 75.
    75 Required Conditions for LastingChange 1. Potential for change must be present 2. Unresolved problems from a lower order must be addressed 3. Dissonance with the current MEME must be felt 4. Sufficient insight into the causes of the dissonance and awareness of alternative approaches to their resolution. 5. Specific barriers to change need to be identified and eliminated, bypassed, neutralized or reframed into something else. 6. If there is no culture of nurturing support during transformation, new MEMEs cannot bloom. • When significant change occurs, expect confusion, false starts, long learning curves and awkward assimilation while consolidation of new thinking.
  • 76.
    76 Systemic Change Requires… •All infrastructures integrated, aligned and synergized; creating critical mass, including: • Economic policy • Educational policy • NGO activities • Environmental rules • Law enforcement action • Political gamesmanship • Community development • Churches and religion • Connecting everything to everything else!
  • 77.
    77 PURPLE Magical/Animistic Appropriate source •Caring chieftain • Elders • From within tribe/clan • From spirit realm • From word of ancestors • Traditional ways Message • Traditional rites, rituals • Includes mystical elements and superstitions • Appeals to extended family, harmony, and safety • Recognizes blood-bonds, the folk, group • Familiar metaphors, drawings • Minimal reliance on written language.
  • 78.
    78 RED Impulsive/Egocentric Appropriate source •Person with the recognized power • Straight-talking boss • One with something to offer • Respected (feared) other • Proven tough entity Message • Demonstrate “What’s in it for me now?” • Offer “Immediate gratification if…” • Challenges and appeals to machismo/strength • Heroic status and legendary potential • Flashy, to the point, unambiguous, strong • Simple language and fiery images/graphics.
  • 79.
    79 BLUE Purposeful/ Authoritarian Appropriate source •Rightful, proper authority • Higher authority in the Way • Down the chain-of- command • According to the book’s rules • Person with position power • Revered Truth Keepers Message • Duty, honor, country images of discipline • Self-sacrifice for higher causes • Appeal to traditions and established norms • Use class-consciousness and knowing one’s place • Propriety, righteousness and responsibilities • Insure future rewards and delayed gratification • Assuage guilt with correct consequences.
  • 80.
    80 ORANGE Achievist/ Strategic Appropriate source •One’s own right-thinking mind • Successful mentors and models • Credible professionals • Prosperous elite contacts • Advantageous to the self • Based in proven experience Message • Appeal to competitive advantage and leverage • Success motivations and achieving abundance • Bigger, better, newer, faster, more popular • Citations of experts and selected authorities • Profit, productivity, quality, results, win • “Best of several options.”
  • 81.
    81 GREEN Communitarian/ Egalitarian Appropriate source •Consensual community norms • Enlightened friend/colleague • Outcome of participation • Resultant of enlightenment • Observation of events • Participative decision • Team’s collective findings Message • Enhance belonging, sharing, harmony of groups • Sensitive to human issues and care for others • Expand awareness and understanding of inner self • Symbols of equity, humanity and bonding • Build trust, openness, exploration, passages • Real people with authentic emotional displays.
  • 82.
    82 YELLOW Integrative Appropriate source •Any information source • May adopt Beige through Green • Relevant, more useful data • Merge hard sources and hunches • Conscious and unconscious mind • Disregards status or prestige Message • Interactive, relevant media, self- accessible • Functional ‘lean’ information without fluff • The facts, the feelings and the instincts • Big picture, total systems, integrations • Connect data across fields for holistic view • Adapt, mesh, blend, access, sense, gather • Self-connecting to systems and others usefully
  • 83.
    83 TURQUOISE - Holistic Appropriatesource • Experience of discovery • Learning in communal network • Holistic conception of reality • Any being in Turquoise • Systems across the planet • Resonance with First Tier Message • Multi-dimensional chunks of insight • Renewed spirituality and sacrifice to whole • Ecological interdependency and interconnections • Macro solutions to macro problems • Community beyond nationalities • High-tech, high-touch for experiential knowing.
  • 84.
    Annexe 3 DESIGN MEA PLANET TEN MACRO SCENARIOS FOR A LITTLE STAR DUST
  • 85.
    TEN MACRO SCENARIOSFOR A LITTLE STAR DUST
  • 86.
    SPEAKING WITH DIFFERENTSGROUPS I DISCOVER AFTER UNDREDS OF INTERVIEWS THAT ………..
  • 87.
    HOW PEOPLE IMAGINETHE FUTURE WHITE TURQUOI SE YELLOW GREEN ORANGE BLUE RED PURPLE BEIGE BLACK
  • 88.
    DEPENDING OF THEIRBELIEVE SYSTEM AND VALUES
  • 90.
    DEPENDING OF THEIRBELIEVE SYSTEM AND VALUES
  • 91.
    THEN WE FINDTEN MAINS FAMILY OF SCENARIOS FOR THE LONG TERM FUTURE OF THE PLANET
  • 92.
    BLACK End of mankind. Endof sun ( very long term but certain ). Meteorite (any time but little probability on short term ). Evolution trap ( high probability on the short term as we will see). A scenario usual evocate by researcher and scientist. This scenario is already happening for the more poor Environ 200 millions
  • 93.
    BEIGE Brake of thecivilization and return to survival. A scenario witch is already happening for the poorest in the suburb of big cities for environ 500 millions of person A scenario witch could append for 2/3 of mankind in the context of climate change A desperate planet who will be the first to move in the black scenario in case of famine poor ≠ miser
  • 94.
    PURPLE Tribes of huntergatherer, indigenous people with precious, sophisticate and very ancient culture environ 20 millions witch are in danger of destruction. How to conserve their precious insights and knowledge and their way of life But also kind of néo tribs organize in mafia way of life in the suburb of big cities. Purple future is difficult either they are assimilate by red and blue either they are push in beige and black suicide They tempt to preserve them self and their myths and ancient believe system. The purple planet is mainly in Africa, south america and oceania.
  • 95.
    RED The empire battlefor territory and resources. The red planet is the most crowded with the blue one. They are connected because the red planet is use by the blue planet as warriors. The vision of the reds is a clash of civilization and a total war for access to resources and domination. Ecological and sociological issues are for dreamers Around 2-3 billions of people are in this way of acting and thinking “real politics”
  • 96.
    BLUE The battle forreligion and legacy. The blue planet is the most crowded with the red one. They are connected because the red planet use blue planet as legitimization . The vision of the blue planet is a battle for religion and cultural dominants Around 2-3 billions of people are living and thinking this way. They see the future as the domination of their religion over the planet . They find their meaning and purpose trough the practice of their cultural tradition, they are family oriented, respect the law and they participate to debate and democracy process but only in the narrow context of their own specific culture. All others cultures appear enemies and devils. The globalization witch seems first for them a way to develop their cultural dominants is now a treats because of the obligation to accept the relativity of each cultures in public international affairs. They tempt to return to their traditional territory and preserve their culture in any form of fundamentalism
  • 97.
    ORANGE Money and technologycan solve any problem ! Let’s make money with green development……. Orange behaviors rules the word because the extraordinary grow of economy through credit, energy, technology and population have make them the most rich and powerful group, even if they are only environ one billions. They are more cynics than any other previous sub-group and manipulate the others in the context of their money games and monopolization of the planetary resources. The actual problem it is that their power came from the fact they owns the credit facility and they need grows of the economy to caution credit. They have been for years the solution they are now the problem because material grow is limited in a finish planet. They see future continuing business as usual with more or less pink and green to have fun ! They confront mankind with a veritable evolution trap because their vision is not scientifically valid, effect of pollution are deleted enough to be ignored on a short base may be fatal for mankind to terms.
  • 98.
    GREEN Welcome in BoboLand an the amazing beginning of the cultural creatives landscape ! Green is a nice planet ! So nice indeed ! Green people are usually more educated young and rich than the average population. They love exchange together thoughts and are open to any ideas, cultures, civilization who seem to them a interesting point of view. Equality and participation of every body in the decision process are very important for them. They are human developer's psychologist, coach and work hard to their own transformation and development. They see the future as a nice dialogue between cultures on a base of equality and awareness of the relativity of each point view ! They have difficulty to take decision and make real action and get organized. They care for the planet but after their personal development !
  • 99.
    YELLOW The yellow peopleare process oriented and systemic thinkers. They see the planet as a global system in evolution where each level of organization and way of thinking have his own place depending of the context. The big gap with previous way of thinking is the positioning of economy as a subsystem of sociology and ecology and a formal critics of any form of reductionism. The problem of Yellow is that they are very few and they are oblige to live in orange society base on reductionism and money leverage Yellow people and turquoise people are the solution to the actual problem of the planet but they need to connect, get organize, propose politics and build together a new way to make society !
  • 100.
    TURQUOISE Turquoise open thesystemic vision to a integral and holistic point of view. The turquoise vision of the future is a integration and valorization of each cultures in a meta system of cultural global governance !
  • 101.
    Time and spaceare illusion We are the one , only “one” is .
  • 102.
  • 103.
    Annexe 3 What strategiesof the future and organizational transformation ?
  • 104.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste Howto manage the evolution from the diagnosis to the action plan Michel Saloff-Coste What strategies of the future and organizational transformation ?
  • 105.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste THEFOUR WAVES OF THE CIVILIZATION Hunting Gathering 3 000 000 years Agriculture Breeding 30 000 years Industry Commerce 300 years Creation Communication ?
  • 106.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste ActivityTools Power Organization Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Nails Teeth Arms Legs Senses Organs Brain Nerves Osmosis with the nature Territory possession Capital availability Information innovation Myths Tribe Monarchy Kingdom Democracy State Feelings Networks THE EVOLUTION GRID
  • 107.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste THEEVOLUTION GRID Activity Exchange Mentality Communication Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Barter Coin Money Paper Money Information Swap Animist instinctive Monotheist analogical Scientific reductionist Systemic complex Oral Personal Written Manuscript Audio-visual Mass-media Interactive Computers
  • 108.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste APPLICATIONA THE ORGANIZATIONS EVOLUTION Through the four vectors of change : Culture Management Structure Process
  • 109.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Fusion instinctive Caste analogical Equality logic Complexity creative ORGANISATIONSEVOLUTION Culture Management To weld together To fascinate To build a hierarchy To impose To adapt To negotiate To generate To inspire
  • 110.
  • 111.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Clientis an "objet" Client is a "user" Client is a «king» Client is a "partner" EXAMPLES The "CLIENT" The HR ’s mission Create an elite Manage the promotion The right man at the right place Everyone has his own project
  • 112.
  • 113.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste HUMANRESSOURCES SYSTEMS Education Career Remuneration Hunting Gathering Agriculture Breeding Industry Commerce Creation Communication Apprenticeship Fellowship Specialization Personalization Devotion Working the way up Value Potential Adhesion Caste Professionalism Uniqueness
  • 114.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste TWOQUESTIONS TO ANSWER How to position your organization on the path to Creation-Communication ? How to take your organization to Creation-Communication ?
  • 115.
  • 116.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste Thetransition to the Creation- Communication age implies the transformation :  of the organization  of the individuals
  • 117.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste FAMILIARIZATION: The stages of learning INITIATION : DEVELOPMENT : The basic concepts The methodological tools The potential of the individuals The potential of the organization
  • 118.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste INDIVIDUALSPOTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT  Teaching Help in mastering the methodology of change in the professional activity  Coaching Analysis of the progress and help in using the tools over one year period
  • 119.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste ORGANIZATIONPOTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT Diagnosis Weakness and strength evaluation of your organization in Creation-Communication era
  • 120.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste DIRECTEDACTION Advise the decision maker during the transformation process Emphasize strong points and soften weak points of your organization STRATEGIC CELL
  • 121.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste ORGANIZATION TRANSFORMATION Change plan design  Key actors familiarization with IPD principles  Management culture evolution  Structures and process transformation
  • 122.
    © Michel Saloff-Coste REFERENCES AFPA,APPLE, DGA, EDF MERLIN GERIN, L'OREAL, FRANCE TELECOM, REEBOK, SONACOTRA, BEL, PEUGEOT, SNECMA…
  • 123.