Presented by Jim Breaux This session highlights the best student products from the award-winning graduate program in Foresight at the University of Houston. The session will include the best essays, forecasts, scenarios, and plans from the next generation of professional futurists.

1. Futures of Emergency
Preparedness
Using the Futures Wheel
Jim Breaux: jwbreaux@uh.edu
281-615-7558
@bagelx

2. The Project
• In the UofH futures master program one of the courses
is Futures Research
• We use various methods in exploring a particular
domain for a semester – my domain is the future of
emergency preparedness
• One method is the Futures Wheel (Jerome Glenn,
1971); The futures wheel can assist in organizing
concepts about possible futures developments and
offering futures-conscious perspectives.
• For the research project I explored 2 trends that I
observed during my research of the domain and
pushed them through three derivative bifurcations

3. Futures Wheel 1
• Coastal Population Trends Upward; based on
NOAA reporting increasing coastal populations
in vulnerable coastal and low-lying areas.

4. Futures Wheel -1
Future of Emergency Preparedness
Coastal
Population
Trends
Upward at
the Coasts
More
Housing
needed
Housing
Placement
Restrictions
Change traditional
Architecture
More High Rise
Concrete and Steel
Structures invade
Coastal Habitats
Mobile
Housing Rises
in Popularity
New
Technologies in
High Speed
Evacuation
Emerge
New Laws to
deal with
Evacuation
Issues Enacted
Evacuation
Difficulty
Increases
Political
Clout
Grows
Housing Costs
Increase due
to New Codes
Imbalance in the
Congress Relieves
Impasse of the
early 2000’s
Non-Geographic
Coastal Affiliation
Party Founded
Advanced
Shelter and
Evacuation
Logistics
Imposed
Private
Evacuation
Businesses
Formed
OMB Forms Special
Unit to Audit and
Prosecute
Evacuation Fraud
Political Manipulation
and Party Weakening
Efforts cause
Parliamentary system
revision to POTUS
Continuation of
Political Gridlock as
Coastal vs. Interior
special interests
fight
New Mega-
Projects Are
Funded to
Protect Coasts
Housing Inflation
Causes Wage
Inflation and
Businesses are less
profitable
Novel Cost
Models for
Housing
Emerge
Elite vs. Masses
Divide Sparks
Violence During a
Major Evacuation
Political System
Begins to Work as
Intended by the
Founding Fathers
J. Breaux, 10/2013

5. Implications
Wheel 1 Coastal Population Trends Upward at the Coasts
Take-aways
• The possible simultaneous rise of stronger AND more mobile housing
• Increasing Coastal population may increase political clout to get big projects financed.
• Private Evacuation businesses forming to meet demand.
Groups could be better off this change were to occur:
• Private Evacuation Companies for a new industry
• Coastal businesses would get the labor force they need to progress
• Coastal politics would rise in importance
• Home Manufacturers and builders would have more work
• Could be a building boom to improve shelters.
Groups could be worse off if this change were to occur:
• Coastal populations at higher levels would contain more (quantity) vulnerable people
• Existing labor force at coast could see wage stagnation, as new jobs are not in their same
categories.
• Coastal politics could be corrupt leading to unfair access by the elites against the less fortunate.
• Housing costs may increase for the coastal population
• Evacuation fraud (crime) could rise against the coastal populations.

6. Futures Wheel 2
• Wheel 2 - Plan to Improve Storm Prediction
Reliability; New math and models applied to
Storm prediction (Hurricane Weather
Research and Forecasting Model [HWRF]) and
A Shelter Network plan is proposed by
Mississippi State University Industrial and
Systems Engineering and Civil and
Environmental Engineering departments.

7. Futures Wheel - 2
Future of Emergency Preparedness
Plan to
Improve
Storm
Prediction
Reliability
Evacuation
Indecision
Increases
Disconnected
Cool Effect –
Drop Out
Increase in sale of
Zombie Apocalypse
Survival Gear for
Weather Related
Disasters
Exclusive Social
Networks Arise in
Heavy Weather
Areas
Immigrant
Technology
Workers Become
New Elite in
Home Countries
Meteorological
Science Spawns
Discipline of
Weather Related
Systems Engineers
New Tech
Requires New
Workers
Businesses
Decide to
Abandon
Coasts
Social and
Psychological
Services Engaged
to Sell Trust
Property Values
Plummet
Long Distance
Transportation
Improves
Universities amid
MOOC transition
catch the STEM
Wave
New Laws
Passed Easing
Technology
Worker
Immigration
Universally Available
Education Sparks
Democratic
Revolution to Stop
Climate Change
The Return of the
Lighter Than Air
Airship
Train to Ship
Loading Interface
Improves to Reduce
Weather Exposure
Massively
Concentrated
Coastal Property
Ownership
Threatens Tax Base
Emergency
Management
Heroes Arise as
Social Figures
Radical
Weather
Anarchists
Organize
Blending of Cultures and
Gene Pool Offsets
Devastating Storm
Casualties
Lower Property
Values
Encourage
Storm Tourists
J. Breaux, 10/2013

8. Implications
Wheel 2 Plan to Improve Storm Prediction Reliability
Take-aways
• Meteorological Science leading to a new disciplines of Engineers
• Improving Ship to Rail interface for loading to avoid or minimize weather exposure
• Immigration as a weather related disaster futures issue.
Groups could be better off this change were to occur:
• University/MOOC enrollment could increase to provide new technologists
• A new Storm Tourism market might emerge for thrill seekers
• A new industry in weather disaster Survival gear might arise
• Terra-Forming projects provide thousands of jobs
• Tech Industry Immigrants given better opportunities.
Groups could be worse off if this change were to occur:
• The poor that cannot afford premium evacuation services might get left behind
• Larger coastal populations might contain more vulnerable people
• Current Owners of property might see a decline in value
• Insurance premiums might be unaffordable for property owners
• Some at risk behavior (storm riders) might cause draconian laws to affect everyone else.

9. Key take-aways
• Great method; took me places I might not
have been going
• Emergency Management Heroes; Judge Ed
Emmett: Ike – “run from flood, hide from
wind”
• Evacuation Industry; playing on the increasing
wealth divide (1%)
• Politics – New Orleans Absentee voting;
constituents with flexible geography

10. Questions??

11. References
• NOAA, (Sep, 2013) National Coastal Population Report,
1970 – 2020. Retrieved from NOAA website
http://stateofthecoast.noaa.gov/
• Vijay Tallapragada & HWRF Team,
Performance of the 2013 NCEP Operational HWRF
and Plans for 2014 Hurricane Season, 68th IHC/TCRF,
March 5, 2014
• Li, Lingfeng, Jin, Mingzhou, Zhang, Li, Sheltering
network planning and management with a case in the
Gulf Coast region, International Journal of Production
Economics, VL – 131, IS – 2, SP – 431, EP – 440, June
2011