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18. Climate Change: We are Fine
The document discusses various perspectives on climate change, emphasizing the need for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing the urgency of the issue. It explores both optimistic and pessimistic worldviews, arguing for the importance of technological development and smart actions to mitigate climate challenges while also improving quality of life. Ultimately, it suggests that climate change should be seen as a manageable problem, rooted in the development benefits that enable societies to confront such challenges.
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18. Climate Change: We are Fine
- 1. 18. We areFine Adam Briggle UNT Phil 4250 Climate Change adam.briggle@unt.edu
- 2. Big Picture • Weknow we have to reduce GHG emissions • But how much? (net zero?) • How? (carbon tax, innovations…?) • How fast? (by 2030…2050?) • And how do we weigh costs of these reductions against damages and dangers of climate change? (the danger is so high and so immediate that it is worth a massive cost… or…?) • Climate change is a problem…but how urgent is it?
- 3. A spectrum ofworldviews Climate as crisis or emergency Climate as manageable issue The down wing Risk-averse Earth as fragile Humans as hubristic The up wing: Optimists Risk brings reward Earth as robust Humans as clever
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- 6. The ecomoderns arethe up wing • The solution to the problems caused by science and technology is more science and technology. (or sub: modernity…maybe capitalism?) • The human mind is the “ultimate resource” • Bjorn Lomborg – good thing we have already talked about the perils of cancel culture! • Their worldview may be unpopular in “climate hawk” (down-wing) circles…but it is certainly legitimate – indeed powerful and persuasive. Nordhaus Shellenberger Lomborg Pielke Trembath (Rosling Pinker)
- 7. Calm Down • Disastersare not new • The world is not going to end in ten years • The world is getting better… • A case study from London in decoupling Year SPM GDP 1952 200 micrograms/m3 $11,000 2015 15 micrograms/m3 $38,000
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- 11. Looking back andlooking forward • Ok, past performance is no guarantee of future success • But how many times are we going to fall for false prophets of doom? https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp- energy-outlook-2020.pdf
- 12. The up wing(ecomodern) vision • Our ‘schedule’ (future) is one of increasing temps, at least for the next several decades. (True, we won’t hit 1.5C, probably not even 2C) • But it is also a future with dramatically less hunger and poverty. • A wealthier future will be better adapted to the warming world – and will be better able to mitigate emissions to reduce warming. • Indeed, the supposed ‘business as usual’ RCP scenarios are quickly outdated as decarbonization increases. • In the long run, we can turn the temp down. • Vast areas will be re-wilded as we develop more efficient agricultural systems (e.g., lab-grown meats). • We will have begun extra-planetary resource extraction – effectively zoning the Earth ‘residential.’
- 13. We need tosee climate change for what it is • Climate change is a problem… • …a first-world problem: It is better than the problems we are solving along the way: poverty, poor health, short lives, and lack of education and opportunity. • Climate change is the cost paid for the benefits of development. • Development gives us the technology and wealth we need to handle the challenges posed by climate change.
- 14. What should wedo? • So, yes, we need to act, but act smart. • Immediate, drastic restrictions fossil fuels impose present costs that are not justified by future benefits (we should adopt a fairly high discount rate). • The smartest form of action is to incentivize low and zero carbon technology development….nuclear power must be a priority. Electrify everything. • Help the poor. Combat inequality. Wealthy people survive better and can afford to care about nature.
- 15. From Sin toDignity • The pessimist take on climate change is an eco-theology about sinfulness, transgression, hubris… • But we are natural creatures doing what we do best – use intelligence to control our environment • Along the way, we are truly ‘humanizing’ ourselves, making life more dignified for more and more people.
- 16. Imagine our abilities,not our impacts! • The down-wingers say we lack moral imagination – our growing impacts, a changing Earth. • But what we really fail to see and imagine or our technological abilities. • The next 100 years will be like the last 1,000 or 10,000 years – so think of the change since the Bronze Age.
- 17. Get ready for exponentialgrowth! • More solar energy strikes the Earth’s surface in 2 hours than the global energy demand for an entire year.
- 18. “So, should webe panicked or not…?” Ackbar, confused space squid