Can humanity achieve a sustainable balance within our closed ecosystem, or have we reached the point where that vision is just another example of the hubris of human exceptionalism? Is it time to switch our focus from sustainability to one of resilience in the face of societal collapse and industrial decline?
Design principles for intelligent research investmentriel-presents
A content-rich celebration of an important knowledge legacy
An opportunity to reflect, and to distil key lessons and insights:
- about important knowledge gaps that remain
- about how best to fill such knowledge gaps
A ‘message in a bottle’ for future research investment
What purpose do the economy, energy, or environment serve?Anupam Saraph
Address to the Pune International Centre Conference on:
Energy, Environment and Economic Growth: Emerging Challenges on 22-23 January 2021
Are we addicted to the economy? Have we forgotten it is the environment that gives life, not the economy? Do we recognize that energy, green or otherwise, will not protect the planet, or create reverence for the sacred, or care and respect for the community of life?
This presentation introduces "The New Sustainable Frontier: Principles of Sustainable Development,” a new guide to sustainable development will help you move beyond existing "green" and "high-performance" strategies that provide incremental improvements, to ones that will sustain the our operations within the scale of the Earth’s closed system. The "Guide" and its four-section "Appendix" include concepts, tools and strategies for operationalizing sustainability that will simplify every-day decision-making and provide guidance for achieving long-term goals. See www.gsa.gov/sustainabledevelopment
Design principles for intelligent research investmentriel-presents
A content-rich celebration of an important knowledge legacy
An opportunity to reflect, and to distil key lessons and insights:
- about important knowledge gaps that remain
- about how best to fill such knowledge gaps
A ‘message in a bottle’ for future research investment
What purpose do the economy, energy, or environment serve?Anupam Saraph
Address to the Pune International Centre Conference on:
Energy, Environment and Economic Growth: Emerging Challenges on 22-23 January 2021
Are we addicted to the economy? Have we forgotten it is the environment that gives life, not the economy? Do we recognize that energy, green or otherwise, will not protect the planet, or create reverence for the sacred, or care and respect for the community of life?
This presentation introduces "The New Sustainable Frontier: Principles of Sustainable Development,” a new guide to sustainable development will help you move beyond existing "green" and "high-performance" strategies that provide incremental improvements, to ones that will sustain the our operations within the scale of the Earth’s closed system. The "Guide" and its four-section "Appendix" include concepts, tools and strategies for operationalizing sustainability that will simplify every-day decision-making and provide guidance for achieving long-term goals. See www.gsa.gov/sustainabledevelopment
The Green Economy Report (Title page Acknowledgements, Forward, Contents)Green Economy Initiative
TThe final version of the Green Economy Report.
Released on 16th of November 2011. The Green Economy Report is compiled by UNEP’s Green Economy Initiative in collaboration with economists and experts worldwide. Convincing evidence for policymakers and business leaders to invest in clean technologies, renewable energy and natural infrastructure.
SPARK Lecture at IUCAA in Pune.
Can perpetual growth be created in a closed system? Can technology, politics or markets make perpetual growth happen? What happens when growth is unconstrained? Can growth be uneconomic? Is the pursuit of growth as an end the sign of a purposeless society?
Green Electronics and Sustainability: Key Business Imperatives for the 21st C...T. R. Ramachandran
The key to green electronics is creating products that can be designed, manufactured and utilized in a sustainable manner without causing significant negative environmental, social and economic consequences. Over the last decade and more, leading companies across the world have started to embrace sustainability as a key operating goal, recognizing that such practices also provide them long term financial benefits. The topic of sustainability is introduced here through the lens of major global driving forces such as greenhouse gas emissions/climate change, pollution/contamination, restricted substances, energy consumption/efficiency, waste/recycling, conflict minerals, and supply chain transparency. Numerous industry, governmental, and non-governmental bodies have developed guidelines and requirements to drive sustainable practices throughout the global supply chain of the electronics industry. An overview of these requirements is provided along with a snapshot of how leading electronics and tech companies are adapting to them and driving sustainability into their product development process and manufacturing operations. Finally, the potential savings and benefits of sustainability practices are discussed, along with implementation challenges & recommendations.
Slides of talk presented at various forums on occasion of the 40th anniversary of the launching of Limits to Growth, the first report to the Club of Rome published in 1972. This book was one of the earliest scholarly works to recognize that the world was fast approaching its sustainable limits. Forty years later, the planet continues to face many of the same economic, social, and environmental challenges as when the book was first published.
Collapse Scenarios, drawn from the Futures special issue on extinction scenar...Wendy Schultz
A prospective client asked for a presentation on societal collapse, with roughly a 400-year time horizon. As I had heard that Prof. Bruce Tonn was editing a special issue of Futures on extinction scenarios, I requested access to the essays ahead of publication. He kindly assented, and I drew on several of the essays to create this slidedeck of "collapse" scenarios (I wasn't asked to take the stories to complete extinction). Some of the stories I wanted to tell were not well-represented in the essays of the special edition, and so I drew on other resources as well. Finally, I chose to interpret "collapse" as "the end of the world as we know it," and thus also included a post-Singularity, nanotech, "mutable world" scenario. Please feel free to contact me (wendy@infinitefutures.com) if you have any questions.
Development, Environment and Sustainabilty–the triumvirate on Geographical FrameProf Ashis Sarkar
Development, Environment and Sustainability form the triumvirate of present day World. If human is to survive and development is to remain sustainable, the geographical issues and concerns should be the thrust of analysis.
From Limits to Growth to the Growth of Limits: responsibilities of highly and...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
GRF One Health Summit 2012, Davos: Presentation by Bron Raymond TAYLOR, University of Florida (USA) & Rachel Carson Center (Munich), United States of America
Can new technology save us in time? 2. Limits to Growth: Food Crash. Paul H. Carr
The MIT-authored book, "Limits to Growth," projects an economic and food-per-capita collapse. Written in 1972, predictions for the population explosion, water shortages, and non-renewable resource depletion have been accurate to date. Can we afford higher food prices?
This presentation summarises The Climate Institute’s report, Global Climate Leadership Review 2013. It provides an overview of Australian climate policy in a global context, as well as elaborating on the implications of global climate diplomacy and domestic actions for Australia. For more information, visit http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/global-climate-leadership-review-2013.html.
The Role of the Community Manager: Turning Content into ConversationsMarisa Peacock
Managing your school’s Facebook takes more than just pushing out content. It requires that you facilitate conversations with your followers. Learn how to engage, promote and monitor your community so that you’re building valuable and meaningful relationships that benefit both your school and its fans.
The Green Economy Report (Title page Acknowledgements, Forward, Contents)Green Economy Initiative
TThe final version of the Green Economy Report.
Released on 16th of November 2011. The Green Economy Report is compiled by UNEP’s Green Economy Initiative in collaboration with economists and experts worldwide. Convincing evidence for policymakers and business leaders to invest in clean technologies, renewable energy and natural infrastructure.
SPARK Lecture at IUCAA in Pune.
Can perpetual growth be created in a closed system? Can technology, politics or markets make perpetual growth happen? What happens when growth is unconstrained? Can growth be uneconomic? Is the pursuit of growth as an end the sign of a purposeless society?
Green Electronics and Sustainability: Key Business Imperatives for the 21st C...T. R. Ramachandran
The key to green electronics is creating products that can be designed, manufactured and utilized in a sustainable manner without causing significant negative environmental, social and economic consequences. Over the last decade and more, leading companies across the world have started to embrace sustainability as a key operating goal, recognizing that such practices also provide them long term financial benefits. The topic of sustainability is introduced here through the lens of major global driving forces such as greenhouse gas emissions/climate change, pollution/contamination, restricted substances, energy consumption/efficiency, waste/recycling, conflict minerals, and supply chain transparency. Numerous industry, governmental, and non-governmental bodies have developed guidelines and requirements to drive sustainable practices throughout the global supply chain of the electronics industry. An overview of these requirements is provided along with a snapshot of how leading electronics and tech companies are adapting to them and driving sustainability into their product development process and manufacturing operations. Finally, the potential savings and benefits of sustainability practices are discussed, along with implementation challenges & recommendations.
Slides of talk presented at various forums on occasion of the 40th anniversary of the launching of Limits to Growth, the first report to the Club of Rome published in 1972. This book was one of the earliest scholarly works to recognize that the world was fast approaching its sustainable limits. Forty years later, the planet continues to face many of the same economic, social, and environmental challenges as when the book was first published.
Collapse Scenarios, drawn from the Futures special issue on extinction scenar...Wendy Schultz
A prospective client asked for a presentation on societal collapse, with roughly a 400-year time horizon. As I had heard that Prof. Bruce Tonn was editing a special issue of Futures on extinction scenarios, I requested access to the essays ahead of publication. He kindly assented, and I drew on several of the essays to create this slidedeck of "collapse" scenarios (I wasn't asked to take the stories to complete extinction). Some of the stories I wanted to tell were not well-represented in the essays of the special edition, and so I drew on other resources as well. Finally, I chose to interpret "collapse" as "the end of the world as we know it," and thus also included a post-Singularity, nanotech, "mutable world" scenario. Please feel free to contact me (wendy@infinitefutures.com) if you have any questions.
Development, Environment and Sustainabilty–the triumvirate on Geographical FrameProf Ashis Sarkar
Development, Environment and Sustainability form the triumvirate of present day World. If human is to survive and development is to remain sustainable, the geographical issues and concerns should be the thrust of analysis.
From Limits to Growth to the Growth of Limits: responsibilities of highly and...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
GRF One Health Summit 2012, Davos: Presentation by Bron Raymond TAYLOR, University of Florida (USA) & Rachel Carson Center (Munich), United States of America
Can new technology save us in time? 2. Limits to Growth: Food Crash. Paul H. Carr
The MIT-authored book, "Limits to Growth," projects an economic and food-per-capita collapse. Written in 1972, predictions for the population explosion, water shortages, and non-renewable resource depletion have been accurate to date. Can we afford higher food prices?
This presentation summarises The Climate Institute’s report, Global Climate Leadership Review 2013. It provides an overview of Australian climate policy in a global context, as well as elaborating on the implications of global climate diplomacy and domestic actions for Australia. For more information, visit http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/global-climate-leadership-review-2013.html.
The Role of the Community Manager: Turning Content into ConversationsMarisa Peacock
Managing your school’s Facebook takes more than just pushing out content. It requires that you facilitate conversations with your followers. Learn how to engage, promote and monitor your community so that you’re building valuable and meaningful relationships that benefit both your school and its fans.
Pillars or Sandcastles? [with speaker notes]John Van Doren
Can humanity achieve a sustainable balance within our closed ecosystem, or have we reached the point where that vision is just another example of the hubris of human exceptionalism? Is it time to switch our focus from sustainability to one of resilience in the face of societal collapse and industrial decline?
Bill Rees: The Vulnerability and Resilience of CitiesJoss Winn
Bill Rees, originator of the ecological footprint, says we are already into overshoot. We can plan to reduce our use of Earth's resources, or plunge through a series of disasters.
Full keynote speech from "Resilient Cities" conference. Vancouver, October 20th 2009
A photograph of the decisive decade we are facing, the perfect storm of environmental, economic and growth crisis we are facing and some possible ways to help the transition from this old unsustainable system to a new world order sustained by a new approach of global prosperity, justice and sustainability.
the delicate topic of Sustainable Development through a
book which I have co-authored and give to the audience also a perspective on
how Education can sensitively provide support for this framework.
I will participate in my role of affiliate professor of management and behavior
for Grenoble Graduate School of Business, France ( www.ggsb.com)
by mark esposito (m.esposito@ht.umass.edu)
Bright
Dark
Blues
Grays
Night
Assignment 1The Global Environment - An Emerging World View
Reading Assignment:
Article 2 “Global Warming Battlefields: How climate Change Threatens Security?” on pages 16-22 in the Annual Editions (11/12) textbook.
As you read, consider the following discussion points. Try to reconcile the "development" with the "sustainable" in the industry and communities. Development with capable of being continued with minimal long-term effect on the environment.Best way know to help the poor today; "economic growth" has to be handled with care otherwise it may end up with a degraded and devastated natural environment.Every generation should leave water, air, and soil resources as pure and unpolluted as when it came on earth!Win-win strategies for environmental issues, would it be possible?To help both economy and environment, environmentally harmful subsidies need to be reconsidered. According to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature "largest conservation group", Greens and businesses do not have the same objective but they can find common ground!2002 UN World Summit on sustainable development in South Africa - Johannesburg? Did it contribute any useful actions and policies?Kyoto Protocol (1997, Japan) a UN treaty on climate change/global warming to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions 5% below of 1990 levels by 2012; what was the bitter test in many mouths in Kyoto?Two areas where concerns about human health and environmental overlap: improving access for the poor to cleanser energy and safe drinking water!India’s leader Mahatma Gandhi’s testimonial about industrial revolution in Asia? "God forbid that India should ever take to industrialization after the manner of the west…It took UK half of the resources of the plant to achieve their prosperity, so how many planets will a country like India require?". Economic growth comparison of China versus India.
Overview:
This lesson will illustrate increasing global perspective on environmental problems and the degree to which their solutions must be linked to political, economical, and social problems and solutions.
The societal effects of climate change are not limited to humanitarian disasters. It is likely that there will be an increase in ethnic conflict, insurgencies, and civil violence whenever climate change negatively affects supplies of vital resources.
Diminished rainfall and river flow, rising sea level, and more frequent and severe storms will cripple the ability of underdeveloped societies to meet even basic sustainability levels.
Topics Covered:
Climate Change
The Hardest Hits
On water scarcity
On food availability
On coastal inundation
Resources Wars
Watching the River Flow
The Mogadishu Effect
Migratory Conflicts
Looking Ahead
Instructor's Comments:
"Th.
Information provided at the "Training for Transition", Totnes, September 2009.
Informaci'on suministrada en el training de TT en Totnes, Septiembre 2009
pursuing sustainable planetary prosperity chapter 18 US-China 2022Michael P Totten
China and the U.S. are the two largest consuming nations, their combined gross do- mestic products (GDPs) comprising one third of global GDP. The two nations consume one quarter of world natural gas and one third of world oil production, and produce nearly two thirds of world coal. The two nations are also the planet’s largest CO2 emitters, jointly releasing nearly half of the world total.
Business-as-usual scenarios are insufficient to address the acute sustainability challenges that both nations – as well as the community of nations
– are facing. However, collaboration in pursuing solutions through unprecedented statesmanship, leadership and technological advances will simultaneously provide national and global sustainability solutions.
Joint initiatives are in both of our nations’ enlightened self interest – from immediate and sustained economic and environmental gains to long-term well being and prosperity of our peoples – and will make a major, essential contribution to finding global solutions to the devastating risks facing hu- manity and the biosphere.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with ParametersSafe Software
Are you looking to streamline your workflows and boost your projects’ efficiency? Do you find yourself searching for ways to add flexibility and control over your FME workflows? If so, you’re in the right place.
Join us for an insightful dive into the world of FME parameters, a critical element in optimizing workflow efficiency. This webinar marks the beginning of our three-part “Essentials of Automation” series. This first webinar is designed to equip you with the knowledge and skills to utilize parameters effectively: enhancing the flexibility, maintainability, and user control of your FME projects.
Here’s what you’ll gain:
- Essentials of FME Parameters: Understand the pivotal role of parameters, including Reader/Writer, Transformer, User, and FME Flow categories. Discover how they are the key to unlocking automation and optimization within your workflows.
- Practical Applications in FME Form: Delve into key user parameter types including choice, connections, and file URLs. Allow users to control how a workflow runs, making your workflows more reusable. Learn to import values and deliver the best user experience for your workflows while enhancing accuracy.
- Optimization Strategies in FME Flow: Explore the creation and strategic deployment of parameters in FME Flow, including the use of deployment and geometry parameters, to maximize workflow efficiency.
- Pro Tips for Success: Gain insights on parameterizing connections and leveraging new features like Conditional Visibility for clarity and simplicity.
We’ll wrap up with a glimpse into future webinars, followed by a Q&A session to address your specific questions surrounding this topic.
Don’t miss this opportunity to elevate your FME expertise and drive your projects to new heights of efficiency.
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey 2024 by 91mobiles.pdf91mobiles
91mobiles recently conducted a Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey in which we asked over 3,000 respondents about the TV they own, aspects they look at on a new TV, and their TV buying preferences.
Securing your Kubernetes cluster_ a step-by-step guide to success !KatiaHIMEUR1
Today, after several years of existence, an extremely active community and an ultra-dynamic ecosystem, Kubernetes has established itself as the de facto standard in container orchestration. Thanks to a wide range of managed services, it has never been so easy to set up a ready-to-use Kubernetes cluster.
However, this ease of use means that the subject of security in Kubernetes is often left for later, or even neglected. This exposes companies to significant risks.
In this talk, I'll show you step-by-step how to secure your Kubernetes cluster for greater peace of mind and reliability.
Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*Frank van Harmelen
Neuro-symbolic (NeSy) AI is on the rise. However, simply machine learning on just any symbolic structure is not sufficient to really harvest the gains of NeSy. These will only be gained when the symbolic structures have an actual semantics. I give an operational definition of semantics as “predictable inference”.
All of this illustrated with link prediction over knowledge graphs, but the argument is general.
Slack (or Teams) Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Soluti...Jeffrey Haguewood
Sidekick Solutions uses Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutions Apricot) and automation solutions to integrate data for business workflows.
We believe integration and automation are essential to user experience and the promise of efficient work through technology. Automation is the critical ingredient to realizing that full vision. We develop integration products and services for Bonterra Case Management software to support the deployment of automations for a variety of use cases.
This video focuses on the notifications, alerts, and approval requests using Slack for Bonterra Impact Management. The solutions covered in this webinar can also be deployed for Microsoft Teams.
Interested in deploying notification automations for Bonterra Impact Management? Contact us at sales@sidekicksolutionsllc.com to discuss next steps.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 4. In this session, we will cover Test Manager overview along with SAP heatmap.
The UiPath Test Manager overview with SAP heatmap webinar offers a concise yet comprehensive exploration of the role of a Test Manager within SAP environments, coupled with the utilization of heatmaps for effective testing strategies.
Participants will gain insights into the responsibilities, challenges, and best practices associated with test management in SAP projects. Additionally, the webinar delves into the significance of heatmaps as a visual aid for identifying testing priorities, areas of risk, and resource allocation within SAP landscapes. Through this session, attendees can expect to enhance their understanding of test management principles while learning practical approaches to optimize testing processes in SAP environments using heatmap visualization techniques
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into SAP testing best practices
2. Heatmap utilization for testing
3. Optimization of testing processes
4. Demo
Topics covered:
Execution from the test manager
Orchestrator execution result
Defect reporting
SAP heatmap example with demo
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
Builder.ai Founder Sachin Dev Duggal's Strategic Approach to Create an Innova...Ramesh Iyer
In today's fast-changing business world, Companies that adapt and embrace new ideas often need help to keep up with the competition. However, fostering a culture of innovation takes much work. It takes vision, leadership and willingness to take risks in the right proportion. Sachin Dev Duggal, co-founder of Builder.ai, has perfected the art of this balance, creating a company culture where creativity and growth are nurtured at each stage.
Software Delivery At the Speed of AI: Inflectra Invests In AI-Powered QualityInflectra
In this insightful webinar, Inflectra explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming software development and testing. Discover how AI-powered tools are revolutionizing every stage of the software development lifecycle (SDLC), from design and prototyping to testing, deployment, and monitoring.
Learn about:
• The Future of Testing: How AI is shifting testing towards verification, analysis, and higher-level skills, while reducing repetitive tasks.
• Test Automation: How AI-powered test case generation, optimization, and self-healing tests are making testing more efficient and effective.
• Visual Testing: Explore the emerging capabilities of AI in visual testing and how it's set to revolutionize UI verification.
• Inflectra's AI Solutions: See demonstrations of Inflectra's cutting-edge AI tools like the ChatGPT plugin and Azure Open AI platform, designed to streamline your testing process.
Whether you're a developer, tester, or QA professional, this webinar will give you valuable insights into how AI is shaping the future of software delivery.
Software Delivery At the Speed of AI: Inflectra Invests In AI-Powered Quality
Pillars or Sandcastles?
1. Pillars or Sandcastles? Searching for the Meaning of Sustainability IAP2 Conference September 21, 2009 by John Van Doren
2. What Does it Mean? “ Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” 1987 Brundtland Report
3. Has “Sustainable” been reduced to a mere Advertising or Political “Feel Good” Slogan? “ Our mission, as set forth by the Congress is a critical one: to preserve price stability, to foster maximum sustainable growth in output and employment ...”
4. Proctor & Gamble Corporate Sustainability Statement “ We want to delight consumers with sustainable innovations that improve the environmental profile of our products . ”
5. Deniz Leuenberger Sustainable Development in Public Administration “ Sustainability asks us to conserve and protect environmental resources for future generations, and advance social equity, while still pursuing a prosperous economy today .”
6. The Implications of Growth "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Al Bartlett
11. The Problem with Neoclassical Economics “ Once you sit down and draw a little picture of the economy as a subset of the larger ecosystem, then you're halfway home as far as ecological economics is concerned. That's why people resist doing that. That means you would have to say well, there are limits, we're not going to be able to grow forever. That means the economy must have some optimal scale relative to the larger system. That means you don't grow beyond the optimum. How do we stop growing? What do we do? These are very threatening questions." Dr. Herman Daly, Former World Bank economist and author of Ecological Economics
12. The “Economy” in Context Human Economic Subsystem Degraded Energy/Pollution Renewable Energy Eco-services Bio Materials Solar Energy Non-renewable Fossil Fuels Extracted NR Materials Degraded materials/waste Recycled Materials Dissipation Loss Low Grade Thermal E Eco-Sinks Trust Fund Carrying Capacity Organic Carrying Capacity
13. Non-renewable Resource Extraction Exhausting our Trust Fund of Natural Capital Time Extraction Rate Lower Capital Costs Higher Capital Costs Lower EROEI Peak
14. Where have all the Metals Gone? “ ...we were greatly surprised to find that approximately three-fourths of the metals have apparently already peaked in production rate in the United States and one-fourth of the world metals have peaked.” Dr. David Roper, “Where Have All the Metals Gone?” , 1976
15. What about Food Critical Mineral based Fertilizers? • Potassium (potash), 81% of which is imported, peaked in terms of global production in 1989, and has no substitutes. • Phosphorous (phosphate rock), 14% of which is imported, also peaked in terms of global production in 1989, and has no substitutes . In the absence of commercial fertilizers, current US crop yields would decline by 30% to 50%. “ Fertilizer Contributions to Crop Yields”, International Plant Nutrition Institute, 2008
16. What about Peak Water? The main climate threat is not rising sea levels but the melting of the snowpack that drives the world’s hydraulic civilizations
17. Peak “Fossil” Water “ ...global withdrawal of 600-700 km3/a [cubic kilometers per year] makes groundwater the world's most extracted raw material.” International Association of Hydrologists “ More than 21 million Indian farmers use private pumps to tap underground reservoirs to water more than two-thirds of all their irrigated crops. This water took millennia to build up and is rapidly running out.”
20. A Growing Consensus that the sun is setting on the Age of Oil "The oil boom is over and will not return. All of us must get used to a different lifestyle. " King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, 2007
21. Ayres Exergy Model 45 33.75 22.5 11.25 0 1900 1918 1936 1954 1972 1990 2008 2026 2044 year empirical low mid high Simulation results using the plausible trajectories of technical efficiency growth as a function of cumulative primary exergy production GDP (1900=1) HIGH Initial ~3% growth rate, for 130% target increase in technical efficiency. MID Initial 1.5% growth rate for target 120% improvement in efficiency. LOW Shrinking economy at rate of 2 - 2.5% after 2010 if the target technical efficiency is only 115% greater than the current. Source: "The MEET-REXS model". Ayres & Warr 2006
22. Draw Down of Non-renewable Natural Capital Trust Fund Carrying Capacity
23. Carrying Capacity & Overshoot The Limit and the Consequence “ In a complex society that has collapsed ... the overarching structure that provides support services to the population loses capability or disappears entirely. No longer can the populace rely upon external defense and internal order, maintenance of public works, or delivery of food and material goods. Organization reduces to the lowest level that is economically sustainable...” Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies
24. Reindeers & Easter Island Examples of Overshoot Source: Alaska Wildlife Research Unit
25. Two Categories of Carrying Capacity Human Economic Subsystem Degraded Energy/Pollution Renewable Energy Eco-services Bio Materials Solar Energy Non-renewable Fossil Fuels Extracted NR Materials Degraded materials/waste Recycled Materials Dissipation Loss Low Grade Thermal E Eco-Sinks Trust Fund Carrying Capacity Organic Carrying Capacity
26.
27.
28. A Kubler Ross Moment Global Population Carrying Capacity Gap Organic Carrying Capacity Trust Fund Carrying Capacity
29. The Tipping Point for Collapse Liebig's Law of the Minimum Carrying capacity is limited by any substance or circumstance that is indispensable but inadequate. The fundamental principle is this: Whatever necessity is least abundantly available sets an environment's carrying capacity Source: William Catton, Overshoot
30. Population Fit to Total Fossil Fuel Energy Availability Source: David Roper
31. Ayres and Roper Population and production increase until growth is halted by increasingly inaccessible nonrenewable resources. Ever more investment is required to maintain resource flows. Finally, lack of investment funds in other sectors of the economy leads to declining output of both industrial goods and services. As they fall, food and health services are reduced, decreasing life expectancy and raising average death rates. Limits to Growth The 30-year Update – Scenario 1
32. Myths, Sustainability, and Resilience “ The values to which people cling most stubbornly under inappropriate conditions are those values that were previously the source of their greatest triumphs over adversity.” Jared Diamond, Collapse - How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
33.
34. John Van Doren is an architect and engineer by training and practiced architecture in California during the early energy crisis days of the 1970's. In the early 1980's he made a career change and spent over two decades leading turnarounds and startups in the manufacturing sector. In 2006, he returned to architecture and began writing a handbook on sustainable home design. In the process of writing that “handbook” he began to question the direction of the “green building movement” and determined that there was a vast difference between what we accepted as “ green” and what was truly sustainable. He would eventually conclude that we had exceeded the limits of the Earth's human carrying capacity, and that the imminent peaking and global decline in production of oil, natural gas, coal, and uranium would render much of what we do in “green building” is nothing more than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Chill in the Living Room John's latest book explores the historical forces, policies, economic theory, and technical advances that gave form to our residential built environment. It describes the fragile, uncertain, and dependent systems that homeowner's innocently rely on for electricity, natural gas, and water. In the end, it gives homeowners practical real-world strategies for converting their homes into some semblance of energy efficiency and resilience in preparation for a painful post peak, post carbon transition to a smaller but more sustainable future. He can be reached at vandoren@wispertel.net “ The Connection is a very personal thing. It can manifest itself as a whole range of emotions, all of which link people with their surroundings and the things they depend upon for their continued survival. That odd surge in the gut as you look up into the branches of a tree; that frisson of excitement that comes from enveloping yourself in the sea; that strange feeling that you have something in common with the animal looking you in the eye: they are all symptoms of The Connection. It is nothing great and mysterious; it is simply the necessary instinct that ensures we do not damage the ability of the natural environment to keep us alive. Failure to connect is the reason humanity is pulling the plug on its life-support machine.” - Keith Farnish, A Matter of Scale
Editor's Notes
I was invited here today to speak about making sustainable decisions in the context of the four pillars ... Environment, Equity, Economy and Culture. I suspect the primary motivation for my invitation was that I might provide a contrarian view, a challenge to the status quo, a lone finger pointed at the elephant in the room. Pillars suggest the rock solid stability of a well engineered foundation. But is that the case, or does the whole sustainability movement rest on feet of sand? Are these “sacred” pillars just an artifact of the myth of progress and our dominion over nature. Is the observation that three of the four pillars are human centric just another example of the hubris of human exceptionalism? In my own journey of understanding I am finding many more questions than I am finding answers.
The industrialized world arguably began its search for sustainability with the release of the U.N. Brundtland Report in 1987. This well known and often quoted definition of “sustainable development” is simply framed and unassailable in it's good intentions, but after more than two decades is it still very unclear exactly what it means at the level of individual and collective action. Does “development” mean growth which is a mathematical oxymoron in a closed ecosystem. What does “sustainable” mean? The word implies that there are both limits and consequences to being unsustainable. ... are those consequences merely the unmet needs of future generations? Are we that future generation? Is it human exceptionalism that has lead us to believe that humanity can somehow achieve sustainability and grow our population by another 2 or 3 billion?
Politicians all over the global are calling for a return to “sustainable” economic and job growth. The Federal Reserve has a stated mission to “foster” maximum “sustainable” growth. Growth that is quantitative, not qualitative. Is there any truth in these pronouncements and goals or are they just political palliatives borne of the economic necessity to service prior debt, employ a growing population, and keep the masses at bay? Have we created a global and national economic and monetary system that must grow ... bounded by a closed ecosystem that cannot sustain that growth?
I have no idea how the consumptive “delight” of disposable diapers has anything to do with sustainability, but this a good example of how the words “green” or “sustainable” have been diluted and co-opted to add burnish to corporate brands.
This quote is from the world of public policy and I take “prosperous” to be one of the many code words for growth. Once again here is an attempt to reconcile the unreconcilable... the concept of “sustainability” with the need to “grow”.
Dr. Barlett is a physicist the well known writer and speaker on the topic of sustainability. Is his view and mine, the consequences of the math of exponential growth are unavoidable. Even modest rates of growth eventually lead to the “hocky-stick” effect and once the curve turns vertical, the genie is out of the bottle and we have very little time to react as the growth becomes explosive and uncontrollable. We see more and more examples of this in arenas as diverse (but not unrelated) as population growth, species loss, and debt to gdp ratios Side-bar To calculate doubling time of exponential growth in years, divide the growth rate into 70. For example if a population is growing at 2% it will double in 35 years. Conversely if the the target inflation rate is 2% the value (purchasing power) of your money will halved in 35 years.
In the context of well intentioned but fuzzy definitions, branding and spin, and the outright contradiction of terms like “sustainable growth”, how do we make decisions and form meaningful policy at any level? What does it really mean to be sustainable or act sustainably?
I'm and architect and engineer by training and practiced architecture during the energy crisis days of the 70's. After that, for over two decades, I migrated into leading turnarounds and startups in the manufacturing sector. A time of massive outsourcing, downsizing, and the hollowing out of the U.S. manufacturing economy. I then retired to the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and began writing a handbook on sustainable home design. Well into the process of writing that handbook I asked myself, “What level of insulation would be required for a home to rise to level of being sustainable?” This simple question would lead me in a new and unexpected direction and on a intellectual journey that still continues today.
As a starting point for my question about insulation, I decided to start looking at the process that determines the content of our energy codes. What I found is that unlike building codes which represent decades of lessons learned and valuable tribal knowledge, energy codes are not much different from our legislative process...they are the sum of all lobbyists wrapped in a process that on the surface looks both rational and scientific. This lead me to investigate how Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is used in our energy codes, an analytical tool which is embedded and used in policy decisions made all over the world.
All of the requirements in our energy codes go through a cost benefit analysis (CBA). This seems both rational and scientific, but as usual the devil is in the details, or in this case the underlying assumptions about future energy costs, the life of the investment, and the all important discount rate. The players: National labs that moderate the process and run the CBA Utilities which advocate for reduced cooling costs to moderate peak demand but don't care that much about heating costs Insulation manufacturers which advocate for insulation values that protect their market share The National Home Builders Association which argued for a lifetime of 5-years (the average length of home ownership) and a discount rate of 18%. Plug in these numbers and you cannot justify any insulation. No one advocated for or mentioned sustainability until recently and then only indirectly in the context of climate change. In addition, the CBA calculations are blind to the limitations of natural resources and environmental sinks. What about fossil fuel replacement costs? What about environmental costs? Since CBA is a child of accounting and economics, this lead me to investigate Economic Theory.
One way to look at economic theory is that it is one of the factors that forms our world view. It's a world view that permeates all levels of policy making in ways we often take for granted and governs the way we keep score (i.e. CBA,GDP, etc.). The dominant economic theory in the world today -- neo-classical economics -- tacitly assumes that all natural resources and environmental sinks are infinite. There is nothing evil in this – no conspiracies – neoclassical economics just evolved in a time of apparent abundance. Green or ecological economics attempts to remedy that fatal flaw but is always met with stiff resistance from vested interests. Dr. Daly was right, putting the economy in the context of the larger ecosystem is not only “very threatening”, it exposes some very frightening consequences. Side-bar In the 1970's under the Carter administration the U.S. congress authorized the Government Accounting Office (GAO) to conduct a “green economics experiment” to account for natural capital inputs to the economy and outputs from the economy like pollution costs. However, the first such report of that accounting put the coal industry in such a bad light (exposing coal's true costs) that the then congressman from West Virginia was moved to kill the program in exchange for his vote on some vital legislation of the day.
This is what Daly's little picture of the economy looks like as a sub-set of the larger ecosystem. It is derived from works of the economist Robert Ayres and the ecologist William Catton. Note that we have two categories of natural capital or resources flowing into the human economy. One provides us with what I call Organic Carrying Capacity and consists of renewable energy, eco-services (water cycle, atmosphere, sinks), and bio materials and diversity. The other provides us with what I call Trust Fund Carrying Capacity and provides us with non-renewable fossil fuel energy sources and non-renewable extracted minerals and metals. As these natural resource pass through the economic system we get degraded materials, waste heat, and pollution that may or may not be able to be sustainably processed by organic sinks. A certain portion of both the organic and trust fund materials(metals, plastics, wood, etc.) can be recycled with the limitations of both dissipation (i.e. rust, corrosion, etc.) and recycling losses. With apologies to the world of thermodynamics, a kind of recycling entropy.
The previous diagram began to get at the heart of my question about insulation and sustainability, but first I needed to understand what was happening to our collective Trust Fund. Not only has the drawdown of our Trust Fund of natural capital been rapid but it follows a predictable pattern and is now approaching a a very predictable end game. The pattern is roughly bell shaped with easy to extract, high grade fuels and ores coming first until a peak rate of extraction is reached and we move to and end game of difficult to find and extract lower grade materials requiring much greater capital costs and in the case of fossil fuels, much lower energy returned on energy invested (EROEI). For minerals and metals the extraction curve can be skewed to the right given enough capital and energy, but that only makes the inevitable decline more abrupt and catastrophic. It's important to note that peaking is NOT running out, it is just the point at which extraction rates begin to decline. However, in a world hard wired for growth, that rollover into decline represents a major discontinuity. Side-bar Resource extraction is one of the centers of (in)equity issues between the developed and undeveloped worlds. However the respective roles may reverse with resource scarcity as resource possession trumps extraction capital.
And this book was written in the 70's! The Bingham canyon copper mine in Utah is a great example of the typical pattern of resource extraction. It shows how the extraction bell curve can be skewed to the right and prolonged with enough capital and energy inputs. The mine is two and a half miles across and three-fourths of a mile deep, and it started out as a mountain. It has a final ore concentration of only 0.2%. This means that 500 pounds of ore need to be extracted and processed in order to extract one pound of copper! But what happens if capital or energy become constrained? What about minerals?
Not only do we depend on mineral based fertilizers to keep food on the table, but we depend on massive inputs of fossil fuels to the tune of about 8 to 10 calories of fossil fuel for every 1 calorie of food. Global food production and much of the earth's human population hangs by a thread of our Trust Fund of non-renewable natural resources.
Is there a corresponding argument for peak water? A peak in extraction and appropriation for human consumption? It turns out the answer here is both yes and no. Water is part of our organic natural capital and is ecologically recycled and never destroyed through the water cycle. However, part of our so called “fossil” water is subject to the bell curve of extraction and a concept called “peak ecological water” places an ecological limit on human appropriation of water.
Fossil water reserves built up in ancient underground aquifers are being drawn-down at rates far exceeding their recharge rates. When this happens, extraction follows the same bell curve of peaking and depletion as any other natural resource. Unfortunately much of the agricultural production gains we have been able to achieve around the world have been based on irrigation from these unsustainable sources of fossil water. UNESCO (2003) estimates that globally groundwater provides about 50 percent of current potable water supplies, 40 percent of the demand of self-supplied industry and 20 percent of water use in irrigated agriculture.
The actual point of “peak ecological water” is probably unknowable from a strictly scientific point of view However, it is inferable from documented threats to bio-diversity from agriculture and we probably passed peak ecological water some time ago. The x-axis of this chart could easily be labeled “Land Appropriated by Humans for Agricultural Use” and the point of intersection labeled “Peak Ecological Food”. Side-bar According to the IUCN (2000), habitat loss and degradation, to which agriculture is a major contributor, affect 89 percent of all threatened birds, 83 percent of threatened mammals, and 91 percent of threatened plants that the organization assessed. Diversions of water for agriculture and the pollution generated by agricultural practices contribute significantly to the threats facing many freshwater species (IUCN, 2000; Wilson, 1992). Although global information is poor, it is estimated that about 20 percent of freshwater species are threatened, endangered, or extinct due to a variety of causes, including agricultural demand (IUCN, 1999).
Oil is the one resource on which the extraction of all other Trust Fund metals, fossil fuels, and minerals depend and the growing consensus is that we have already reached a plateau and that global extraction rates will soon begin to decline.
In addition to petroleum, we are also approaching peaks for Natural Gas, Coal, and Uranium. Coal extraction will peak globally 2025 (Energy Watch Group). In the U.S. coal has already peaked relative to energy content extracted. We have largely depleted the high energy density anthracite deposits and are now mostly drawing down stocks of lower energy content bituminous coal. Uranium extraction will peak as early as 2020 (Energy Watch Group). 40% of nuclear plant uranium feedstocks currently come from decommissioned Russia warheads. Natural Gas extraction will peak globally around 2030 1 (Dr. Michael Smith) What are implications of a decline in fossil fuel resources for growth? Side-bars Electric cars are and exercise in a game of fossil fuel whack-a-Mole In the context of my question about sustainable levels of insulation for homes that last an average of 75 years, Cost Benefits Analysis that projects sources of fossil energy for 30-years is clearly invalid 1 Gas found is shale formations may extend this date, but the jury is still out on recoverable reserves and the potential environmental damage caused by “fracturing”
Robert Ayres is a well-known physicist and environmental economist. He has found a high correlation between the energy available to do useful work (exergy) and economic growth as measured by GDP. A much higher correlation than any neo-classical model. His Exergy Model provides a useful look into what might be a future of declining growth and standards of consumption. Note that this does not necessarily mean a lower quality of life. Side-bar Ayres GDP projections could also be used as a proxy for the future of human carrying capacity.
Once I began to understand how our human economy interfaced with the earth's closed ecosystem and how our draw down of non-renewable natural capital is rapidly depleting our unsustainable “Trust Fund” of natural resources I eventually stumbled on to the concept of carrying capacity.
Carrying Capacity is the concept that began to answer my question about the sustainability limits and the consequences of being unsustainable. The chart depicts several key concepts. Consumption is a combination of population and that population's demand on the natural capital within their ecosystem. (“Consumption” is sometimes called “Load”) Carrying capacity is the maximum population that can be sustained within the natural limits of the ecosystem. Overshoot occurs when that maximum population is exceeded leading to a collapse in both carrying capacity and population But in our case there are two categories of carrying capacity. Organic Carrying Capacity and Trust Fund Carry Capacity. Unfortunately Trust Fund Carrying Capacity has given us a false sense of abundance and success and only the Organic category can sustain us in the long term. Sidebar We are much like the trust fund baby with a Ferrari in the driveway of her multi-million dollar home, oblivious her diminishing bank account
In August 1944, the U.S. Coast Guard released 29 reindeer as a backup food source for the men stationed on St. Matthew island in the Atlantic . The animals landed in an ungulate paradise: lichen mats 4 inches thick carpeted areas of the island, and the men of the Coast Guard station were the reindeer's only potential predators. The men left the island in 1945 with the end of WWII but reindeer stayed and multiplied until the lichen became overgrazed and the population collapsed. But humans are not reindeers, surely we would not succumb to the same fate? Easter Island is just one story of what Jared Diamond calls unintentional ecological suicide (eco-cide) by a human population. Easter Island was part of the eastward Polynesian migration. A few polynesians in seagoing canoes settled the island and over several hundred years developed a complex society whose major source of protein was obtained from deep water fishing. The island's forests provided large palms that were used for sea going canoes, shelter, and the construction of the island's landmark statues. However, overtime the Easter Islanders deforested their island and their primary means of obtaining protein (canoes) was lost. A population that had grown to between 10,000 to 20,000 collapsed to a few hundred. It took 600 years for Easter Islanders to deforest their island's most important organic resource and cause the collapse of it's culture and population. In contrast, it's only taken 150 years for humanity to burn thru ½ of our petroleum resources. That drawdown of energy is largely responsible for the world's explosive population growth over the same period.
As I searched for the answer to my questions concerning the meaning of sustainable I kept coming back to this diagram and it's implications for both the limits implied by the word “sustainable” and the consequences implied by levels of consumption that were unsustainable . Was humanity heading for the same fate as the Easter Islanders? Human carrying capacity clearly comes from two sources, one being limited and unsustainable and the other being sustainable at certain combined level of consumption and population. What I labeled as organic carrying capacity. But what is that organic carrying capacity? What level of population could the earth sustainably support? How far might we have exceeded that capacity? How many people's lives hang by the thread of our trust fund carrying capacity?
Much like ecological peak water, Organic Carrying Capacity is probably unknowable in any scientific, tightly quantifiable way (too many variables, no were near enough data). However, I was looking for a ballpark +/- a billion or so kind of number. One that I could compare to the current world population to get a sense of how severe our situation might be as our Trust Fund of natural capital becomes more and more depleted.
Since global agricultural yield gains have stalled and there are no magic bullets waiting in the wings, it seemed reasonable to try and use global food production as a proxy for Organic Carrying Capacity. Based on the current world population of about 6.8 billion this exercise gave me an organic carrying capacity of around 1.7 billion. Many would call this optimistic. Side-bar Overall global agricultural yields are declining due to environmental degradation. A clear sign of overshoot and loss of carrying capacity. We are barely able to feed the current population with massive inputs of fossil fuels, mineral based fertilizers, insecticides, and herbicides. Inputs which are part of our Trust Fund and unsustainable.
I decided to use a baseline number of 2 billion degraded to about 1.5 billion today. Overlaid in the above chart with world population growth this became my Kubler Ross moment and I began the familiar process of denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Although I must confess to revisiting “bargaining” on a regular basis. I would conclude that at this level of excess (carrying capacity gap), we are no longer in control ... nature is...and a few billion lives hang by a thread. To think that we could achieve sustainability and grow our economy and grow our population was clearly nothing more than the hubris of human exceptionalism. We had become the victims of our own myths of control and dominion. Myths that became turbo-charged by a short blip in available energy provided by fossil fuels produced organically by millions of years of photosynthesis. What became the new reality and acceptance for me was not sustainability, but achieving some level of resilience in the face of industrial and economic decline. This is where we should focus our resources, nature will drive us to to a state of sustainability, the question is whether we will survive the ride. But, what would trigger the decline and was a soft (or less hard) landing possible?
The ecological concept that defines the tipping point of carrying capacity collapse is Liebig's law of the minimum and in our case that “least abundant necessity” could be from either source of natural capital and carrying capacity. Some possible candidates and by no means a complete list: Trust Fund Carrying Capacity: Peak Oil (arguably the tipping point for the current financial crisis) Declining levels of Potash Peak “fossil” water Organic Carrying Capacity: Honey Bees (colony collapse) Top soil depletion Peak ecologic water Climate change
It turns out there is also a very high correlation to world population and the total energy available from fossil fuels. Dr. Roper's chart is very similar to the Robert Ayres Exergy chart.
Both charts are alarming in their depiction of decline, but deceptively optimistic in the smooth and orderly transition displayed. The reality is more apt to be abrupt and disorderly as this rollover into a new future represents a major discontinuity. It is unlikely that we will be proactive and much like the financial meltdown of 2008 we will react only when faced with an obvious or imminent crisis. However, if this plays out as a long, slow moving crisis then my greatest fear is that we may not see it for what it is and react in a series of half measures in response to seemingly unrelated events. Whether this future is merely painful and extremely disruptive (a less hard landing) or one of catastrophic collapse will depend on the choices we make as the crisis continues to unfold.
Looking back a my original question about sustainable levels of insulation I've concluded that it's no longer a valid question. It may have been valid 50 years ago when there was still time, but we have passed the point of solutions and entered the age of mitigation. To a large extent, we still suffer from the myth of progress and human centrality ... the myth that humanity can still achieve sustainability without sacrifice ... that canvas shopping bags, energy efficient light bulbs, wind turbines and electric cars will maintain our standards of living. If you're looking for ways to achieve a level of resilience in the face of future decline, then I would suggest looking at the work being done by Richard Heinberg and others at the Post Carbon Institute (PCI) or at the work of TransitionTowns.org. At the level your personal residence, my own small contribution Dwelling in Post Peak World offers homeowners a host of strategies for resilient dwellings. Sidebar Richard Heinberg PCI, Toward a more Resilient Future (Key Elements) A massive and immediate shift to renewable energy The electrification of our transportation system The transformation to a “smart” electrical grid The de-carbonization and localization of our food production and delivery system The retrofit of our building stock for energy efficiency and distributed power generation.