1. The document discusses moving away from prioritizing economic growth and instead managing economies with slower or no growth in a sustainable way. 2. It argues that the economy is a subsystem of the biosphere and that the current scale and intensity of the economy places an excessive burden on the environment. 3. While technology can help reduce this impact, changes are also needed to address the scale of resource use and production, as well as growing inequality between rich and poor countries. The document presents some scenarios and policies for managing economies without continuous growth.

1. Managing without Growth Slower by Design, not Disaster Dr. Peter A. Victor 24 September 2010

2. Summary Economy: a subsystem of the biosphere Excessive burden of the economy on the biosphere Technology helpful but not sufficient Must address scale and intensity Many questioning growth Extreme global inequalities - rich countries should go first Managing without growth: Low/no growth scenario Degrowth scenario Can we adapt?

5. Firms Households Goods and Services Land, Labour, Capital $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Natural Inputs (flows of materials & energy from SOURCES and Environmental SERVICES ) Waste Outputs (SINKS) Bio-physical Cycles Economic Cycle 1. The economy: a sub-system of the biosphere

6. Financial Real Natural money, credit, debt goods, services, labour, capital energy, materials, life

7. Financial Real money, credit, debt goods, services, labour, capital

8. OECD Founded in 1960

9. 2. Excessive Burden on the Environment: Transgressing Planetary Boundaries

10. Billion tonnes Global Materials Extraction 1900 to 2005 100% 700%

11. Peak oil Production exceeds discoveries Peak Oil Peak discovery

12. 3. Technology: helpful but not sufficient

13. 1946 1970 1992 2010

17. ‘ I would say this is most environmentally friendly cruise ship to date. It is much more efficient than other similar ships.’ (Project engineer)

19. Energy intensity is declining but not fast enough 59% Key message: Environmental impact depends on i ntensity and scale 110% 24% GDP Primary Energy Energy Intensity 4. Must address scale as well as intensity

20. Material intensity: same story 47% 110% 29% Key message: Environmental impact depends on intensity and scale GDP Resource Extraction Material Intensity

21. 5. Many questioning growth

23. Real Income per person Percentage very happy

25. 6. Extreme global inequalities: rich countries should go first

26. LowGrow Canada Can we have full employment, no poverty, fiscal balance, reduced GHG emissions without relying on economic growth?

27. LowGrow Canada You bet!

28. What makes an economy grow? Macro demand (what we spend money on): Consumption Investment Government Trade Macro supply (what we can produce): Labour Capital Productivity

29. ‘ Business as usual’ GDP per Capita GHG Emissions Poverty Unemployment Debt to GDP Ratio

30. What happens if we eliminate increases in all sources of economic growth? (starting in 2010 over 10 years) Consumption Investment Government Trade Population/labour Productivity

31. A no growth disaster GDP per Capita GHG Emissions Poverty Unemployment Debt to GDP Ratio

32. ‘ The real issue is whether it is possible to challenge the “growth-at-any-cost model” and come up with an alternative that is environmentally benign, economically robust and politically feasible.’ Larry Elliot (economics editor) The Guardian Weekly 29th August 2008

33. A better low/no growth scenario How? New meanings and measures of success Limits on materials, energy, wastes and land use Carbon price - more informative prices Stable population and labour force More efficient capital stock Shorter work year More generous anti-poverty programs Fewer status goods More informative advertising Education for life not just work GDP per Capita GHG Emissions Unemployment Poverty Debt to GDP Ratio

34. Generating a Canadian degrowth scenario (in US$2000) Maximum sustainable global GDP GDP when ecological footprint = biocapacity: 1980 ($17.6 trillion) With 40% reduction in carbon: 1999 ($30.5 trillion) Maximum sustainable average GDP/capita Divide by 8 billion ($3,815) Canadian sustainable GDP/capita Equal to world average ($3,815) Equal to multiple of world average ($15,260) (Canadian GDP/capita in 1976) LowGrow simulation for Canada

35. Poverty Unemployment GHG Emissions Debt to GDP Ratio GDP per Capita A Canadian degrowth scenario

38. The scenarios compared: growth drivers

39. Entering the Mainstream “ It is possible that the US and Europe will find that…either continued growth will be too destructive to the environment and they are too dependent on scarce natural resources, or that they would rather use increasing productivity in the form of leisure… Robert Solow Nobel Laureate in Economics There is no reason at all why capitalism could not survive with slow or even no growth.” (Harper’s Magazine, March 2008)

40. 8. Can we adapt?

43. Thank you