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TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE
           2015-2035
             BY EMIL SALIM, INDONESIA
25Y.APEX, 6/10/2012; KUNTORO-MEETING 24/10/2012.

                                               1
THE CHALLENGES 2015-2035



                       2
EXPECTED GROWTH
1.   Population 7 billion 2012 to 9 billion 2050;
2.   Gross World Prod. $7tr. 2012 to $200 tr 2050
3.   Energy-related CO2 emissions from 13 Giga-
     tons 1970 to 50 Gt in 2050; large regions will
     surpass 2*C in average annual temperature by
     2040 combined with changing wheater pattern;
4.   In 1970-2008 Global-Living-Planet Index -30%
     Global-Tropical-Index -60%, Human Ecological
     Footprints >50% of Bio-capacity;Tropical Fresh
     Water Index -70%
5.   Indonesia Jawa-Riau-Bali-North Celebes
     footrpints exceed Regional Bio-Capacity
     2010;                                       3
GLOBAL THREATS OF POVERTY
In a World of 7 billion people (2012):
1. 1 out of 5 persons lives on <$1.25 a day;
2. close to 1 billion go hungry every day;
3. 1.5 billion have no access to electricity;
4. 2.5 billion have no toilets & sanitation facilities;
5. “Intensity of Poverty” as joint distribution of their
   deprivation (nutrition, toilet, water, elec-tricity) is
   highest in poorest countries;
6. 1.189 million poor are in Middle-Income coun-
   tries, 459 million in Low-Income countries;
7. Gini-Coefficient, indicator of inequality is rising
   between and within countries;                        4
“ECONOMIC BUSINESS-AS-USUAL”
1.   Corporations generate 60% of annual GWP;
2.   Corporate externalities of top 3000 corporations cost
     $2.5 tril.=3.5% Global Gross Product
3.   Global business practices have made human
     ecological footprints > 50% of global bio-capacity;
4.   Corporate lobbying spending (US) has risen from
     $1.5 bil.(1998) to 3.5 billion (2010);
5.   Financial market > real sector market in growth;
6.   Increasing Total Debt as % of countries’ GDP by
     Financial Institutions, Government, Non-Financial
     Business and Households are increasing
                                                         5
CRITICAL ISSUES OF
  DEVELOPMENT



                     6
CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
1.   Anthropocentric, disregarding biosphere;
2.   Pursuit of indefinite growth with preference for
     “more” for human satisfaction;
3.   Economic activities are thought of series of
     activities guided by invisible hands of market;
4.   Production = physyically activity affected by
     natural resource, energy and food. Trade, ex-
     changes = financial activity of Gov. and Priv.
5.   Growth is affected by “future expectations”
     revealed through rate of interests influenced
     by government & business interventons
                                                    7
FOCUS OF STRATEGIC ISSUES
Shift time-frame of expected growth from short term
to long term (2015-2035) by interlinking economic-
social-environment to reach for cluster of:
 Quality economic growth with
 Rising Human Development Index and Social
  Equity;
 Sustained use of natural resources below the
  biological capacity of ecosystem and resource
  replenishment;
In a economic-sosial-environmental matrix of
achievements, with each sector acting as a
consraint to the other in the process of
sustainable development
                                                  8
THE PARADIGM
      OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Moving away from “single economic only track of
development” into “triple economic-social-envi-
ronment (ESE) track of sustainable development:
1. Raising income with value-added of resources
   through science and technology;
2. Social development by improving “accessibility
   bottlenecks” (economic connectivcity, financial
   services, education, health, technology, natural
   resources, politics) and empowering civil
   society;
3. Maintaining environmental sustainability by
   keeping ecological footprints below the bio-
   and life support system capacity;             9
URBAN SUSTAINABILITY INDEX




                             10
LOWER ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS WITH
 HIGHER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX




                                   11
COMMON BUT DIFFERENTIATED
   RESPONSIB ILITIES AMONG NATIONS
COUNTRY: HUM.DEV.INDEX: BIOCAPACITY:
USA         very high   overshoot high
Australia   very high   overshoot high
Japan       very high   overshoot high
China       low         overshoot low
India       low         below
Indonesia         low        below
Afghanistan very low    much below
                                     12
SHIFTING TOWARDS RENEWABLE ENERGY




                                    13
GREEN JOB ENERGY DEVELOPMENT




                               14
15
TOWARDS INCLUSIVE MARKET APPROACH




                                16
INDONESIAN BUSINESS INVOLVEMENT IN MDG




                                         17
REQUIREMENTS FOR
           SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
1.   Triangle partnership: business-govt.-civil society;
2.   Stages of Political Democracy development with
     stages of Sustainable Development;
3.   Change indicator of development “from GDP to
     Equitable Global Human Wellbeing”;
4.   Promote Global Sustainable Development
     Partnership in raising among others value added
     of renewable sources (Squalene, farmacy) and
     “green non-renewable resources development”
     (green coal, energy, etc) through human capacity
     building in bio-technology;
                                                       18
SOURCES OF REFERENCES
1.   WWF, “Living Planet Report 2012”;
2.   Pavan Sukhdev, “Green Economy” in “Green
     Economic Conference”, Jakarta, Sept. 2012;
3.   UNDP, “One Planet to Share”, Asia-Pacific
     Human Development Report, May 2012;
4.   McKinsey & Company, “McKinsey on
     Sustainability & Resource Productivity”, 2012;
5.   UNEP, “Towards a Green Economy” 2011;
6.   Global Compact Network Indonesia, “Growing
     Inclusive Markets: Indonesia Cases” vol.1/2010;
7.   Richard Heinberg, “The End of Growth”, New
     Society Publishers,Canada, 2011.                  19

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The challenges of the future 2050

  • 1. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE 2015-2035 BY EMIL SALIM, INDONESIA 25Y.APEX, 6/10/2012; KUNTORO-MEETING 24/10/2012. 1
  • 3. EXPECTED GROWTH 1. Population 7 billion 2012 to 9 billion 2050; 2. Gross World Prod. $7tr. 2012 to $200 tr 2050 3. Energy-related CO2 emissions from 13 Giga- tons 1970 to 50 Gt in 2050; large regions will surpass 2*C in average annual temperature by 2040 combined with changing wheater pattern; 4. In 1970-2008 Global-Living-Planet Index -30% Global-Tropical-Index -60%, Human Ecological Footprints >50% of Bio-capacity;Tropical Fresh Water Index -70% 5. Indonesia Jawa-Riau-Bali-North Celebes footrpints exceed Regional Bio-Capacity 2010; 3
  • 4. GLOBAL THREATS OF POVERTY In a World of 7 billion people (2012): 1. 1 out of 5 persons lives on <$1.25 a day; 2. close to 1 billion go hungry every day; 3. 1.5 billion have no access to electricity; 4. 2.5 billion have no toilets & sanitation facilities; 5. “Intensity of Poverty” as joint distribution of their deprivation (nutrition, toilet, water, elec-tricity) is highest in poorest countries; 6. 1.189 million poor are in Middle-Income coun- tries, 459 million in Low-Income countries; 7. Gini-Coefficient, indicator of inequality is rising between and within countries; 4
  • 5. “ECONOMIC BUSINESS-AS-USUAL” 1. Corporations generate 60% of annual GWP; 2. Corporate externalities of top 3000 corporations cost $2.5 tril.=3.5% Global Gross Product 3. Global business practices have made human ecological footprints > 50% of global bio-capacity; 4. Corporate lobbying spending (US) has risen from $1.5 bil.(1998) to 3.5 billion (2010); 5. Financial market > real sector market in growth; 6. Increasing Total Debt as % of countries’ GDP by Financial Institutions, Government, Non-Financial Business and Households are increasing 5
  • 6. CRITICAL ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT 6
  • 7. CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT 1. Anthropocentric, disregarding biosphere; 2. Pursuit of indefinite growth with preference for “more” for human satisfaction; 3. Economic activities are thought of series of activities guided by invisible hands of market; 4. Production = physyically activity affected by natural resource, energy and food. Trade, ex- changes = financial activity of Gov. and Priv. 5. Growth is affected by “future expectations” revealed through rate of interests influenced by government & business interventons 7
  • 8. FOCUS OF STRATEGIC ISSUES Shift time-frame of expected growth from short term to long term (2015-2035) by interlinking economic- social-environment to reach for cluster of:  Quality economic growth with  Rising Human Development Index and Social Equity;  Sustained use of natural resources below the biological capacity of ecosystem and resource replenishment; In a economic-sosial-environmental matrix of achievements, with each sector acting as a consraint to the other in the process of sustainable development 8
  • 9. THE PARADIGM OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Moving away from “single economic only track of development” into “triple economic-social-envi- ronment (ESE) track of sustainable development: 1. Raising income with value-added of resources through science and technology; 2. Social development by improving “accessibility bottlenecks” (economic connectivcity, financial services, education, health, technology, natural resources, politics) and empowering civil society; 3. Maintaining environmental sustainability by keeping ecological footprints below the bio- and life support system capacity; 9
  • 11. LOWER ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS WITH HIGHER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX 11
  • 12. COMMON BUT DIFFERENTIATED RESPONSIB ILITIES AMONG NATIONS COUNTRY: HUM.DEV.INDEX: BIOCAPACITY: USA very high overshoot high Australia very high overshoot high Japan very high overshoot high China low overshoot low India low below Indonesia low below Afghanistan very low much below 12
  • 14. GREEN JOB ENERGY DEVELOPMENT 14
  • 15. 15
  • 18. REQUIREMENTS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 1. Triangle partnership: business-govt.-civil society; 2. Stages of Political Democracy development with stages of Sustainable Development; 3. Change indicator of development “from GDP to Equitable Global Human Wellbeing”; 4. Promote Global Sustainable Development Partnership in raising among others value added of renewable sources (Squalene, farmacy) and “green non-renewable resources development” (green coal, energy, etc) through human capacity building in bio-technology; 18
  • 19. SOURCES OF REFERENCES 1. WWF, “Living Planet Report 2012”; 2. Pavan Sukhdev, “Green Economy” in “Green Economic Conference”, Jakarta, Sept. 2012; 3. UNDP, “One Planet to Share”, Asia-Pacific Human Development Report, May 2012; 4. McKinsey & Company, “McKinsey on Sustainability & Resource Productivity”, 2012; 5. UNEP, “Towards a Green Economy” 2011; 6. Global Compact Network Indonesia, “Growing Inclusive Markets: Indonesia Cases” vol.1/2010; 7. Richard Heinberg, “The End of Growth”, New Society Publishers,Canada, 2011. 19