Are we playing on the Titanic deck? A note on the results of European elections

1. Are we playing on the Titanic deck?
A note on the results of European elections
Pierangelo Isernia
(University of Siena)

2. TALKING POINTS
• WHERE IS EUROPE AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION?
• THE VIEW FROM WITHIN
• THE VIEW FROM WITHOUT
• THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS
• WHAT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT COMES OUT OF THE 2019
ELECTION
• A LOST OPPORTUNITY OR THE 3:10 TRAIN TO YUMA?
• WHAT CONSEQUENCES FOR EUROPEAN CULTURAL RELATIONS?

3. EU MEMBERSHIP
(% good thing)
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
9/1/1973
1/1/1975
5/1/1976
9/1/1977
1/1/1979
5/1/1980
9/1/1981
1/1/1983
5/1/1984
9/1/1985
1/1/1987
5/1/1988
9/1/1989
1/1/1991
5/1/1992
9/1/1993
1/1/1995
5/1/1996
9/1/1997
1/1/1999
5/1/2000
9/1/2001
1/1/2003
5/1/2004
9/1/2005
1/1/2007
5/1/2008
9/1/2009
1/1/2011
5/1/2012
9/1/2013
1/1/2015
5/1/2016
9/1/2017
1/1/2019
Source: Eurobarometer, various years

4. EU COUNTRIES TOO DIFFERENT
(Net public opinion: Disagree-Agree)
Source: Eurobarometer 466 Autumn 2017; QB9,1 Please tell me if it corresponds very well, fairly well, fairly badly or very badly to what you think personally.
There is no common European culture because European countries are too different from one another
10 8
4
-5
-9 -10
-13
-16 -18 -18 -19 -19 -20 -21 -22 -24 -25 -28 -29
-34 -35 -36 -37 -39 -39
-44 -45
-49
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Germ
anySw
eden
NetherlandsAustriaBulgaria
Czech
Republic
GreatBritainGreece
Luxem
bourgSloveniaFinlandSlovakiaFranceDenm
arkHungaryBelgium
PolandPortugal
Cyprus(Republic)
SpainCroatia
M
altaLithuania
ItalyIrelandEstoniaRom
ania
Latvia

5. EU ENDANGER INTEGRITY COUNTRY
CULTURE
(Political Elite: % Agree)
Source: 2009 INTUNE Elite survey; 2014: ENEC Elite survey; 2016-2017: EUEngage elite survey. Question wording: Some people say that the European Union
might endanger some important aspects of the nation. For each of the following aspects, please indicate to what extent you agree or disagree that they are
endangered by the European Union. QE9P_1 The integrity of [NATIONALITY] culture
987
1516
33
69
6
10
33
53
5
3
17
46
11
16
27
64
6
23
9 9
22
53
20
8
33
40
12 12
29
54
13
8
4
3 2
8
37
29
46
60
2009 2014 2016 2017
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Hungary
Italy Lithuania Poland Portugal Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain United Kingdom

6. HOW THE EU IS SEEN FROM OUTSIDE
• LOW LEVEL OF KNOWLEDGE
• IN US IN 2005, 41% HAVE HEARD OF THE EU (BUT 73% OF THE UN, 58% THE WORLD BANK, 65% OF THE RED CROSS)
• IN US, IN 2010 ONLY 46% WERE ABLE TO INDICATE GREECE IN A LIST OF COUNTRIES AS THE RECEIVER OF A MAJOR BAILOUT
• FAVOR FOR THE EU IS HIGHER THAN FOR THE US AND CHINA
• SYMPATHY FOR THE EU VARIES BY REGION.
• HIGHER IN NORTH AMERICA AND AFRICA THAN IN ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (IN JORDAN, ONLY ONE FOURTH OF THE
SAMPLES HAVE SYMPATHY FOR THE EU, BUT IN LEBANON IT GOES UP TO 53% IN 2013 AND IN EGYPT HOVER AROUND 40%
IN 2013).
• SUPPORT IS SENSITIVE TO THE EVENTS. SUPPORT FOR THE EU IS DECREASING OVER TIME (A CONSEQUENCE OF THE CRISIS?).
IN CANADA DOWN FROM 73% IN 2007 TO 57% IN 2013). IN RUSSIA WENT DOWN FROM 62% IN 2004 TO 31% IN 2015, WITH
MOST OF THE DROP BETWEEN 2013 AND 2014.
• THE EU IS TRUSTED MORE THAN OTHER INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS (EVEN WHEN THE COUNTRY
BELONGS TO THE REGIONAL ORGANIZATION S/HE IS ASKED ABOUT, E.G. IN LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL
ORGANIZATIONS ARE TRUSTED LESS THAN THE EU).
• EU IS PERCEIVED BY NON-EU ELITE AS AN ECONOMIC GIANT AND AS A MODEL OF INTEGRATION BUT IT LACKS
AGENCY OR LEADERSHIP.
• EU LACK OF AUTONOMY IN THE POLITICAL REALM (E.G. IN THE MIDDLE EAST).

7. SUPERPOWERS STABILIZING ROLE IN
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
(% Agree)
Source: VoP 2014, Gallup International
27 28
32
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Russia US China EU

8. EU STABILIZING ROLE IN
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
(% Agree)
Source: VoP 2014, Gallup International
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
MEXICO
RUSSIA
TURKEY
BOSNIA&HERZEGOVINA
PAKISTAN
THAILAND
AFGHANISTAN
ITALY
SERBIA
HUNGARY
ARGENTINA
JAPAN
NEWZEALAND
AUSTRALIA
KAZAKHSTAN
UK
ECUADOR
HONGKONG
SYRIA
IRAQ
LEBANON
CANADA
ETHIOPIA
SAUDIARABIA
USA
PHILIPPINES
REPUBLICOFKOREA
SPAIN
SOUTHAFRICA
FRANCE
LATVIA
INDIA
BRAZIL
CZECHREPUBLIC
INDONESIA
POLAND
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
COLOMBIA
NETHERLANDS
SWITZERLAND
AUSTRIA
GERMANY
JORDAN
MOLDOVA
MACEDONIA
GHANA
NIGERIA
FINLAND
BULGARIA
ROMANIA
GEORGIA
ALBANIA
VIETNAM
KOSOVO

9. EVOLUTION OF SIMPATHY TOWARD
THE EU
(Difference 2007-2014)
Source: pew, Global Attitudes Project
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
TurkeyUkraineRussia
Venezuela
NigeriaM
exicoGhana
Kenya
SenegalEgypt
Chile
India
LebanonSouth
Africa
M
oroccoPakistanPeru
Brazil
M
alaysiaArgentinaUgandaIndonesiaIsrael
TanzaniaJapan
Bangladesh
China
South
Korea
Jordan
Palestinian

10. EU PARLIAMENT VOTING TURNOUT
Source: European Parliament
61,99 58,98 58,41 56,67
49,51
45,47 42,97 42,61
50,95
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1979 (EU9) 1984 (EU
10)
1989 (EU
12)
1994 (EU
12)
1999 (EU
15)
2004 (EU
25)
2009 (EU
27)
2014
(EU27)
2019
(EU28)

11. EU PARLIAMENT DIFFERENCE IN
VOTING TURNOUT 2014-2019
Source: European Parliament
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bulgaria
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Malta
Luxembourg
Greece
Belgium
Cyprus
Estonia
UnitedKingdom
Finland
Latvia
Sweden
Slovenia
Netherlands
Croatia
Lithuania
France
Denmark
Slovakia
CzechRepublic
Germany
Austria
Hungary
Romania
Spain
Poland

12. EP ELECTORAL VOLATILITY
Source: Emanuele, V., Angelucci, D., Marino, B., Puleo, L., and Vegetti, F. (2019), Dataset of Electoral Volatility in the European Parliament elections since 1979,
Rome: Italian Center for Electoral Studies, http://dx.doi.org/10.7802/1905.
12,6 12,3
18,0
13,6
14,8
19,9
17,9
23,7
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

13. TALKING POINTS
• WHERE IS EUROPE AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION?
• THE VIEW FROM WITHIN
• THE VIEW FROM WITHOUT
• THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS
• WHAT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT COMES OUT OF THE 2019
ELECTION
• A LOST OPPORTUNITY OR THE 3:10 TRAIN TO YUMA?
• WHAT CONSEQUENCES FOR EUROPEAN CULTURAL RELATIONS?

14. EP 2019 RESULTS
Source: 1979-2014PEW https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/22/euroskeptics-are-a-bigger-presence-in-the-european-parliament-than-in-
past/ft_19-05-20_euparliament_ideology/; 2019: European Parliament; seats at election time
12
10
8
5
7
6
5
7
7
27
30
35
35
29
28
25
25
20
11
7
10
11
9
13
12
9
14
42
37
30
30
37
37
36
29
24
7
11
9
14
9
11
15
20
23
1
5
8
5
8
6
7
7
10
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
Left wing Center-left Centrist Center-right Right wing Green

15. EP 2014-2019 RESULTS
(SEATS BY PARTY FAMILY)
Source: European Parliament; seats at election time
30%
26%
9%
7%
7%
9%
6%
6%
2014
EPP S&D ALDE Greens GUE ECR EFOD ENF
25%
21%
15%
10%
5%
8%
6%
10%
2019
EPP S&D ALDE Greens GUE ECR EFOD ENF
Mainstream
Sovereignst

16. EP 2019 RESULTS
(THE PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL)
Source: European Parliament; seats at election time
25%
21%
15%
10%
5%
8%
6%
10%
PARLIAMENT
EPP S&D ALDE Greens GUE ECR EFOD ENF
Mainstream
Sovereignst
25%
25%
17%
3%
3%
11%
5%
11%
COUNCIL
EPP S&D ALDE Green
GUE ECR EFDD ENF

17. TALKING POINTS
• WHERE IS EUROPE AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION?
• THE VIEW FROM WITHIN
• THE VIEW FROM WITHOUT
• THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS
• WHAT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT COMES OUT OF THE 2019
ELECTION
• A LOST OPPORTUNITY OR THE 3:10 TRAIN TO YUMA?
• WHAT CONSEQUENCES FOR EUROPEAN CULTURAL RELATIONS?

18. CULTURAL POLICY: NATIONAL OR
EUROPEAN LEVEL
Source: Eurobarometer http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Chart/getChart/themeKy/10/groupKy/259 Question: For each of the
following areas, do you think that decisions should be made by the (NATIONALITY) government, or made jointly within the European Union? Cultural policy
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
Sep-91 Jan-93 Jun-94 Oct-95 Mar-97 Jul-98 Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05
(NATIONALITY) Government Jointly within the EU DK - Don't know

19. CULTURAL POLICY: EU COMMISSION
DISBURSEMENTS
(Millions Euro)
Source: https://euaidexplorer.ec.europa.eu/content/explore/recipients_en
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019