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Ipsos MORI General Election Campaign Tracker: 4 December 2019

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British adults most likely to see Conservatives as having a ‘good campaign’ as the public increasingly expects a Conservative majority following next week’s election.

Published in: News & Politics
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Ipsos MORI General Election Campaign Tracker: 4 December 2019

  1. 1. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public IPSOS MORI CAMPAIGN TRACKER DECEMBER 2019
  2. 2. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public Which issues will help decide your vote? Looking ahead to the General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? Base: 2,253 Online British adults 18+, 29 November to 2 December, 2019 2 2% 3% 4% 5% 10% 13% 13% 15% 15% 16% 19% 20% 20% 21% 23% 23% 26% 27% 27% 27% 29% 29% 29% 34% 54% 59% Other Don’t know Nothing – I won’t vote Scottish independence/devolution Foreign/overseas aid Animal welfare Unemployment Defence/ security/ foreign affairs Issues affecting families/children/childcare Public transport/ roads Benefits Taxation Lack of faith in politicians/parties/government Inflation/rising cost of living Pensions Housing Poverty/Inequality Education/ schools Managing the economy/ economic situation Public services generally Protecting the environment/ climate change Immigration Care for older and disabled people Crime and anti-social behaviour/ law and order Europe/ EU/Brexit Healthcare/ NHS/ hospitals Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker % from 15-18 November 60% 56% 32% 32% 30% 30% 28% 30% 27% 23% 22% 21% 23% 22% 21% 18% 20% 16% 16% 16% 10% 14% 5% 2% 3% 3% % from 29 Nov – 2 Dec % from 8-11 November 54% 55% 32% 31% 26% 27% 23% 26% 24% 21% 23% 21% 24% 21% 20% 17% 19% 13% 15% 14% 10% 14% 5% 2% 3% 3% % from 22-26 November 62% 57% 31% 31% 29% 29% 28% 28% 28% 25% 24% 23% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 5% 1% 3% 3%
  3. 3. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public 28% 31% 33% 34% 34% 37% 37% 41% 48% 71% Benefits Crime Housing Care for older and disabled Education/schools Protecting the environment Public services Poverty/inequality Brexit/EU Health care/NHS Which issues will help decide your vote? By party Top ten issues for 2017 Conservative voters 23% 24% 24% 26% 27% 35% 40% 41% 54% 68% Protecting the environment Education/schools Taxation Pensions Care for older and disabled people Managing the economy Immigration Crime Health care/NHS Europe/EU/Brexit Looking ahead to the General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? 3 Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker % from 15-18 November 69% 58% 38% 46% 40% 35% 24% 22% 21% 27% % from 8-11 November 68% 55% 41% 38% 33% 30% 23% 22% 20% 23% % from 29 November – 2 December Top ten issues for 2017 Labour voters % from 15-18 November 68% 47% 33% 31% 33% 33% 33% 34% 29% 29% % from 8-11 November 65% 49% 39% 29% 29% 32% 33% 29% 27% 30% % from 29 November – 2 December Base: 2,253 Online British adults 18+, 2017 Conservative party voters (630), 2017 Labour party voters (659) 29th November to 2nd December 2019 % from 22-26 November 70% 65% 40% 41% 35% 36% 23% 26% 23% 22% % from 22-26 November 72% 51% 38% 40% 37% 37% 33% 39% 27% 28%
  4. 4. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public 23% 23% 24% 28% 28% 30% 40% 46% 59% 64% Lack of faith in politics Education/schools Public services Pensions Managing the economy Care for elderly/disabled Crime Immigration Health care/NHS Brexit/EU Looking ahead to the General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? 4 Base: 2,253 Online British adults 18+, 2016 Leave voters (840), 2016 Remain voters (1022), 29th November to 2nd December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker % from 15-18 November 63% 62% 49% 39% 35% 31% 24% 26% 26% 26% % from 8-11 November 64% 55% 43% 43% 35% 28% 26% 23% 20% 22% % from 29 November – 2 December 26% 30% 31% 33% 33% 34% 36% 40% 56% 68% Housing Crime Managing the economy Education/schools Care for elderly/disabled Poverty/inequality Public services Protecting the environment Brexit/EU Health care/NHS % from 15-18 November 64% 59% 39% 34% 29% 36% 31% 34% 30% 24% % from 8-11 November 61% 58% 34% 29% 33% 32% 29% 31% 26% 24% % from 29 November – 2 December Which issues will help decide your vote? Leave vs Remain Top ten issues for those who voted leave in 2016 EU Referendum Top ten issues for those who voted remain in 2016 EU Referendum % from 22-26 November 65% 64% 49% 38% 38% 29% 29% 25% 21% 25% % from 22-26 November 66% 57% 40% 36% 29% 28% 36% 33% 28% 28%
  5. 5. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public Which party has the best policies? Thinking about the issues which are most important to you, which party, if any, do you think has the best policies to address them? 5 Base: 2,253 Online British adults 18+, 29 November to 2 December, 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker 9% 10% 11% * * 2% 3% 6% 9% 22% 27% Don't know None of them Different parties are better on different policies Another party Plaid Cymru The Scottish National Party (SNP) The Green Party The Brexit Party The Liberal Democrats The Labour Party The Conservative Party % from 15-18 November 26% 22% 9% 6% 3% 2% 1% * 11% 8% 11% % from 8-11 November 26% 19% 12% 8% 3% 3% * 1% 9% 8% 10% % from 29 Nov – 2 Dec % from 22-16 November 25% 23% 9% 7% 3% 3% * 1% 12% 9% 9%
  6. 6. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public6 The Conservative party 24% 23% 24% 21% 26% 25% 23% 23% 26% 29% 30% 29% 38% 35% 34% 34% 51% 50% 49% 50% 45% 42% 49% 48% 55% 52% 51% 51% 41% 43% 43% 45% 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec The Labour party The Liberal Democrats The Brexit Party Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker -9 -8 -3 -21 -23 -29 -26 -17 -19 -25 -27 -27 Base: 2,253 Online British adults 18+, 29 November to 2 December, 2019 Favourability towards the parties: To what extent, if at all, do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following politicians and political parties? UnfavourableFavourable Net Favourable -11 -22 -25 -29
  7. 7. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public Unfavourable 7 Boris Johnson, Leader of the Conservative party 24% 26% 24% 22% 24% 22% 19% 18% 23% 22% 24% 22% 36% 36% 33% 33% 54% 54% 54% 55% 44% 41% 50% 49% 62% 60% 59% 60% 44% 45% 47% 47% 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour party Jo Swinson, Leader of the Liberal Democrats Nigel Farage, Leader of the Brexit Party Favourable Base: 2,253 Online British adults 18+, 29 November to 2 December, 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker Net Favourable -14 -9 -8 -38 -38 -39 -31 -19 -20 -33 -28 -30 Favourability towards party leaders: To what extent, if at all, do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following politicians and political parties? -30 -31 -35 -14
  8. 8. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public8 Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker Who is having a good campaign? And regardless of which party you support, on balance do you think each of the following have had a good or bad campaign since the General Election was announced at the end of October? Base: 2,253 Online British adults 18+, 29 November to 2 December, 2019 The Conservative party 19% 19% 19% 16% 23% 20% 19% 17% 21% 25% 28% 23% 27% 27% 27% 31% 36% 41% 40% 41% 32% 33% 39% 41% 44% 42% 39% 48% 35% 35% 34% 34% 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 22-25 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec The Labour party The Liberal Democrats The Brexit Party Net good -3 -8 -8 -25 -17 -23 -24 -13 -9 -25 -22 -17 A bad campaignA good campaign -21 -20 -11 -7
  9. 9. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public What will the election outcome be? As you probably know, the general election may result in a clear majority for one party that can make decisions without consulting, or it may result in a Hung Parliament where no party has an overall majority so parties must compromise and reach agreement to make decisions. Thinking ahead to the next general election, which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely? 9 20% 59% 44% 4% 9% 10% 25% 33% 22% 57% 43% 4% 11% 11% 27% 30% 19% 59% 43% 3% 10% 9% 27% 32% 19% 63% 38% 2% 9% 10% 34% 29% A Conservative majority government A Labour majority government A hung parliament with Labour as the biggest party Another result Hung parliament Labour as the largest party Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker A hung parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party Conservatives as the largest party 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec 8-11 Nov 15-18 Nov 29 Nov-2 Dec Base: 2,253 Online British adults 18+, 29 November to 2 December, 2019 22-25 Nov 22-25 Nov 22-25 Nov 22-25 Nov 22-25 Nov 22-25 Nov 22-25 Nov 22-25 Nov
  10. 10. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public Confidence in parties improving public services / credible spending plans How confident, if at all, are you that the each of the following parties, will improve the state of Britain’s public services, if they are in government after the general election on 12 December? How confident, if at all, are you that the each of the following parties has got a credible plan to pay for improvements to public services, if they are in government after the general election on 12 December? Not confident 10 The Conservative party 24% 28% 30% 35% 34% 34% 63% 61% 61% 56% 56% 56% The Labour party The Liberal Democrats Confident Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker Base: 1,127 Online British adults 18+, 29 November to 2 December, 2019 Has a credible plan to pay for improvements Will improve public services Has a credible plan to pay for improvements Will improve public services Has a credible plan to pay for improvements Will improve public services
  11. 11. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public Confidence parties will improve public services How confident, if at all, are you that the each of the following parties, will improve the state of Britain’s public services, if they are in government after the general election on 12 December? Not confident 11 The Conservative party 28% 35% 34% 61% 56% 56% The Labour party The Liberal Democrats Confident Net= -22 Net= -21 Net= -33 Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker Base: 1,127 Online British adults 18+, 29 November to 2 December, 2019
  12. 12. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public Confidence parties have a credible plan to pay for improvements to public services How confident, if at all, are you that the each of the following parties has got a credible plan to pay for improvements to public services, if they are in government after the general election on 12 December? Not confident 12 The Conservative party 24% 30% 34% 63% 61% 56% The Labour party The Liberal Democrats Confident Net= -22 Net= -31 Net= -39 Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker Base: 1,127 Online British adults 18+, 29 November to 2 December, 2019
  13. 13. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public Confidence parties will increase equality of opportunity Not confident 13 The Conservative party 28% 34% 33% 58% 55% 56% The Labour party The Liberal Democrats Confident Net= -23 Net= -21 Net= -30 Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker Base: 1,127 Online British adults 18+, 29 November to 2 December, 2019 How confident, if at all, are you that the each of the following parties will increase equality of opportunity for people in Britain to get ahead, if they are in government after the general election on 12 December?
  14. 14. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public Technical Note 14 Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 2,253 adults 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted online: 29th November to 2nd December 2019. Data are weighted by gender, region, social grade, age, working status and education to match the profile of the population. Where percentages do not sum to 100 this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of “don’t know” categories, or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent. Questions are asked of the total sample of n=2,253 unless otherwise stated.
  15. 15. Gideon Skinner Research Director gideon.skinner@ipsos.com Glenn Gottfried Research Manager glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com Keiran Pedley Research Director keiran.pedley@ipsos.com Ipsos MORI GENERAL ELECTION 2019 CAMPAIGN TRACKER For more information Cameron Garrett Senior Research Executive cameron.garrett@ipsos.com

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