EU citizens views on upcoming European elections
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1) Support for EU membership is at its highest since 2007, with a majority of Europeans saying they would vote to remain in the EU if given a referendum. 2) More than 40% of Europeans trust the EU, a higher percentage than during the economic crisis, though still a minority. Immigration is now seen as the most important issue facing the EU. 3) A majority of Europeans are satisfied with democracy in the EU and feel their voice counts at the European level, though political parties remain distrusted and awareness of the upcoming European elections was still limited in September 2018.
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EU citizens views on upcoming European elections
- 1. What do citizens think about the EU and how they will vote in the upcoming European elections? An analysis based on Eurobarometer results Nicolas Bécuwe, Kantar Public Brussels 21 February 2019, Brussels
- 2. An improving context with some important challenges 1
- 3. Almost half of Europeans say the situation of the national economy is good 3 In 2014, this was the case for only 34% of EU citizens Eurobarometer 90, Standard Autumn 2018
- 4. However, this result hides strong differences between countries 4 Eurobarometer 90, Standard Autumn 2018
- 5. Support for membership of the EU is at its highest since 2007 5 + 8 points compared to 2014 Eurobarometer Parlemeter, September 2018 QA15 Generally speaking, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY)'s membership of the EU is...? (% - EU) 58 53 53 49 47 50 50 54 55 53 57 57 60 62 13 15 15 18 18 16 17 14 15 16 14 12 12 11 25 28 28 29 31 31 31 29 28 29 26 28 25 25 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 Oct.-Nov. 2007 EB68.1 June 2009 EB71.3 Oct.-Nov. 2009 EB72.4 Spring 2010 EB73 May 2011 EB75.3 June 2012 EB77.4 June 2013 EB79.5 Nov.-Dec. 2014 EB82.4 Sept. 2015 EB84.1 Sept.-Oct. 2016 EB86.1 Mar. 2017 EB87.1 Sep.-Oct. 2017 EB88.1 Apr. 2018 EB89.2 Sept. 2018 EB90.1 A good thing A bad thing Neither a good thing nor a bad thing Don't know
- 6. A majority of Europeans would vote to remain in the EU if there was a referendum 6 Eurobarometer Parlemeter, September 2018
- 7. More than 40% of Europeans trust the European Union 7 Still a minority but a larger share than during the economic crisis (higher than in 2014) Eurobarometer 90, Standard Autumn 2018
- 8. Immigration is now the most important issue facing the European Union 8 Eurobarometer 90, Standard Autumn 2018 It was the 4th most important in 2014 prior the European elections
- 9. Citizens think that their voices count at European level 2
- 10. 10 Eurobarometer 90, Standard Autumn 2018 A majority are satisfied with the way democracy works in the EU This is the majority view in most Member States
- 11. For the first time since 2004, Europeans are most likely to agree that their voice counts in the European Union 11 Eurobarometer 90, Standard Autumn 2018
- 12. But European democracy is fragile: dissatisfaction with political parties, fight against ”fake news” and corruption 12 Eurobarometer Special 477, Democracy and elections, September 2018 70% 69% 65% 63% 58% 57% 57% 44% vs 50% 40% vs 52% 36% vs 57%
- 13. Less than 20% of Europeans trust political parties 13 Eurobarometer 89, Standard Spring 2018 It was even worse in May 2014 (17%)
- 14. Immigration may be the main topic of the European elections campaign but the not the only one 3
- 15. Awareness and interest for the European elections were still limited in September 2018 but rising 15 Eurobarometer Parlemeter, September 2018 QA6 In your opinion, when will the next European Parliament elections be held here in (OUR COUNTRY)? (% - EU27) (April.2018- Sept.2018) Totel 'Correct answer" 41 (+9) Total 'Incorrect answer' 15 (-3) Don't know 44 (-6) QA7 The next European Parliament elections will be held in May-June 2019. How interested or not are you in these elections? Very interested 13 (+2) Somewhat interested 38 (-1) Not very interested 29 (-2) Not at all interested 18 (+1) Don't know 2 (=) 41% 51%
- 16. Immigration is considered the main topic for the electoral campaign BUT not the only one 16 Eurobarometer Parlemeter, September 2018
Editor's Notes
- 2018, for the first time in more than ten years Europeans say in majority that the situation of the economy is good. In 2014, before the previous European elections it was in fact the case of only 34% of the citizens. This data confirms the overall positive results of the European economy.
- However, despite this the difference between Member States is really high. There are around 90 points difference between Malta and Greece. There are 12 countries where a relative majority think the situation is bad. This is mostly a divide south/east versus north/west These differences are one of the challenges that Europe is facing: inequality between countries which is persistent.
- More than 60% of Europeans support Membership of the EU. This is the highest figure recorded since 2007. This confirms that European citizens are in majority attached to Europe and that belonging to the EU is not questionable for most citizens. This support increased by 8 points compared to 2014.
- In September 2018, in the Parlemeter, the regular Eurobarometer survey conducted for the European Parliament we also asked whether citizens would vote to remain or leave the EU if there was a referendum. And the answer was in all countries, that a higher proportion would vote to remain than leave even in the UK. Italy, Czechia and Croatia were countries with the most hesitant but still a higher number would have voted remain. This demonstrates the general attachment to Europe.
- When it comes to trust in the European Union, the results are however less positive. A minority of citizens trust the EU (only 42%). However, even if it is a minority view, it is the best score recorded during the crisis and it is significantly higher than before the European elections 2014. It has also to be compared with other institutions and here it follows the same movement than the national governments but with a higher score (42% vs. 35%). At a time of crisis of trust in any institutions the results are in fact rather positive for the EU. They are encouraging.
- Despite this, new challenges arose and since the refugee crisis of 2015, immigration is the most important issue facing the EU for most citizens. They are looking for a solution and for a majority of them they would like the EU to adopt common measures but it is still a worry for them. In 2014, it was only the 4TH most important and at this time economy and unemployment were the main problems perceived.
- A majority of citizens are satisfied with the way democracy works in the EU. This is the case in most countries except the four southern countries (France, Spain, Italy and Greece) where citizens are in majority dissatisfied with this.
- Nearly half of the citizens now think that their voice counts at EU level. This is a significant change compared to previous years. And if you see on the trend line you noticed an increase of this right after the EU elections in 2009 (+8) and in 2014 (+13). We may therefore expect that this indicator jumps again significantly after 2019 elections. This continuous rise of this indicator may be explained by the efforts taken to involve citizens in various public consultations.
- Despite this positive results, there are some signs of fragility for the European democracy. Most citizens are satisfied with the free and fair elections, the freedom of speech or the respect of fundamental rights but a majority is dissatisfied with political parties, with the fight against disinformation and against corruption. These are negative perceptions that could have a negative impact for the next EE2019.
- The trust in political parties remain a very strong issue which has an impact on turnout and could therefore limit a potential rise of participation to the next EE2019 despite a growing debate and a rise of political parties that present an alternative to traditional parties. Citizens will vote for national parties and the lack of trust is a strong issue for the next EE2019.
- In September 2018, 41% of the European elections were aware that EE2019 were in May 2019. Already a 8 points increase compared to April. This figure should be now much higher. The interest however was already more than half of the population.
- Immigration the first topic but other topics: economy, social and climate change would also be on the agenda for the EE2019.