Joe Twyman's presentation from Policy Exchange's event "Battle of the Pollsters: What do the European and local election results reveal about the prospects of our political parties?" Video and audio of the event can be found at http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/modevents/item/battle-of-the-pollsters-what-do-the-european-and-local-election-results-reveal-about-the-prospects-of-our-political-parties

1. @JoeTwyman
Fruitcakes, Loonies,
Closet Racists and Winners
Joe Twyman
Head of Political and Social Research (Europe, Middle East and Africa)
YouGov
Europe, the European Elections and the Rise of Ukip

2. @JoeTwyman
Sticks and Stones
‘Ukip is sort of a bunch of ... fruit cakes
and loonies and closet racists mostly’
2
David Cameron,
4th April 2006

3. @JoeTwyman
What the World Thinks

4. @JoeTwyman
The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)
4-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
PercentageWestminsterVotingIntention
4 @JoeTwyman
Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month

5. @JoeTwyman
The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)
5
April 2004 December 2013
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
PercentageWestminsterVotingIntention
5 @JoeTwyman
Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month

6. @JoeTwyman
The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)
6
April 2004 December 2013
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
PercentageWestminsterVotingIntention
6 @JoeTwyman
Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month

7. @JoeTwyman
The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)
7
April 2004 December 2013
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
PercentageWestminsterVotingIntention
7 @JoeTwyman
Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month

8. @JoeTwyman
R² = 0.71
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
PercentageWestminsterVotingIntention
The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2012 – 2014)
8
3rd Jan 2012 9th May 2014
8 @JoeTwyman
Source: YouGov Daily Polling for News UK
Sample: c1,500 British adults per day

9. @JoeTwyman-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
PercentageWestminsterMPs
The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2014)
9
April 2004 May 2014Source: House of Commons Library
9 @JoeTwyman

10. @JoeTwyman
The Rise of UKIP: The European Election Context
10
European Election
Result
(May 2009)
European Election
Result
(May 2014)
Conservative 28% 24%
UKIP 17% 27%
Labour 16% 25%
Liberal Democrat 14% 7%
Green 8% 8%

11. @JoeTwyman
The Rise of UKIP: The European Election Context
11
Actual
Result
YouGov
UKIP 27 27
Lab 25 26
Con 24 22
Green 8 10
Lib Dem 7 9
Average
Error
1.4

12. @JoeTwyman
The Rise of UKIP: The European Election Context
12
Actual
Result
YouGov ICM Opinium TNS ComRes Survation
UKIP 27 27 25 32 31 33 32
Lab 25 26 29 25 28 27 27
Con 24 22 26 21 21 20 23
Green 8 10 6 6 6 6 4
Lib Dem 7 9 7 6 7 7 9
Average
Error
1.4 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.8

13. @JoeTwyman
Why They Think That

14. @JoeTwyman
The Ukip Vote: Winning here?
14
Source: YouGov Daily Polling Fieldwork: 31st March – 30th April 2014 Sample: 8,894 British Adults
13
15
15
20
24
24
26
29
30
30
31
32
33
34
36
42
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Scotland
Under 40
Voted Lab in 2010
Voted Lib Dem in 2010
ABC 1
London
Women
All
Midlands / Wales
North
Men
40-59
South excl. London
C2DE
Aged 60+
Voted Con in 2010
Percentage Voting Ukip in 2014 European Elections

15. @JoeTwyman
Most Important Issues Facing the Country
15
Source: YouGov for News UK Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2014 Sample: 2,144 British Adults
1
2
3
7
10
11
12
14
15
17
18
28
34
51
57
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
None of these
Don’t know
Transport
Family life & childcare
Tax
The environment
Crime
Pensions
Education
Europe
Housing
Welfare benefits
Health
Immigration & Asylum
The economy
Percentage of All Voters

16. @JoeTwyman
Most Important Issues Facing the Country
16
Source: YouGov for News UK Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2014 Sample: 2,144 British Adults
1
0
2
3
6
4
10
12
5
49
13
28
25
85
45
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
None of these
Don’t know
Transport
Family life & childcare
Tax
The environment
Crime
Pensions
Education
Europe
Housing
Welfare benefits
Health
Immigration & Asylum
The economy
Percentage of Ukip Voters

17. @JoeTwyman
Support for Europe versus Support for UKIP
17
April 2004 December 2013Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Percentage
UKIP Support
Approve of Brit Membership of EU
Disapprove of Brit Membership of EU

18. @JoeTwyman
The Three Ds
 Dissatisfied
 Distrusting
 Disapproving
18

19. @JoeTwyman
In general, how much do you trust leading politicians from the
main parties in Britain to tell the truth?
19
Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28th April – 6th May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British Adults
2 4 2 2 0
20
36
18
34
4
36
40
39
35
28
36
18
37
20
67
6
2 4
9
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP
Percentage
Trust a great deal Trust to some extent Do not trust much Do not trust at all Don’t know

20. @JoeTwyman
On balance, do you think Britain is a better or worse place in
which to grow up than it was thirty or forty years ago?
20
Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28th April – 6th May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British Adults
18
26
19
38
6
19
23
20
19
11
55
45
55
36
82
8 5 6 6
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP
Percentage
It is better today than 30-40 years ago Neither better nor worse It is worse today Don’t know

21. @JoeTwyman
From what you have heard, how safe do you think the MMR
vaccination is?
21
Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2013 Sample: 1,765 British Adults
88
99
85 84
72
6
1
3
12
28
6
0
12
3
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP
Percentage
Safe (All) Unsafe (All) Don’t know

22. @JoeTwyman
From what you have heard, how safe do you think the MMR
vaccination is?
22
Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2013 Sample: 1,765 British Adults
1 0 0 0
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP
Percentage
Dangerous

23. @JoeTwyman
The 2014 European Elections in Context
 The rise of Ukip is on a different scale to
previous occasions and is not just about
Europe
 Part of a wider scepticism across many
parts of Europe
 European Elections have major implications
for 2015 General Election
23

24. @JoeTwyman
Email: Joe.Twyman@YouGov.com
Twitter: @JoeTwyman