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PENGGUNAAN REGRESI KUADRAT TERKECIL PARSIAL (PLS) UNTUK MENGATASI
   KOLINIERITAS DAN PEMANFAATANNYA UNTUK PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN
             BERDASARKAN DATA GCM (Global Circulation Model)

                                                    Oleh:

                             GUSTI RUSMAYADI1 dan UMI SALAWATI2

                                                ABSTRACT

Prediction of parameter in multiple regression analysis is interesting topics of some research. It
can because of some problems in rising at regression that is colinierity problem. Some of
methods that used to solve colinierity problem is using principle component regression (PCR),
ridge regression and partial least square (PLS). The regression coefficient of PLS can be find
iteratively and it has not closed formula to search variant of regression coefficient. GCM data in
grid V2272 – V2727 in years 1996 – 2001 and rainfall data from BMKG station (310L Sta) in
1996-2001. The 1996 – 2000 data was used to building model, beside it 2001 data was used to
model validated. All of calculation and graph were used Minitab® software on 14.12 versions
and Microsoft Excel®. Estimating based on PLS algebra at some iterations have result PRESS
value and R2. Varian of X variable with 3 components of model can explain about 66.9% in
variant of dependent variable. Minimal PRESS in 5.714.118 value is get at the third iterations
with R2 higher at 7%. Analysis of regression with PLS methods to GCM and rainfall data or it
was known as statistical downscaling, get prediction value regression model at the third levels.
The model can used to prediction rainfall as long as 12 months and it was validated. The optimal
PLS based on GCM data can be used to prediction local rainfall. The next research should to
used period data GCM and rainfall so can be used to predict period event too, DJF periods for
example.

Keyword: PLS, PRESS, colinierity, iteration




1
    Staf Pengajar pada Jurusan Budidaya Pertanian Faperta UNLAM
2
    Staf Pengajar pada Jurusan Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Faperta UNLAM

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Penggunaan regresi kuadrat terkecil parsial abstract

  • 1. PENGGUNAAN REGRESI KUADRAT TERKECIL PARSIAL (PLS) UNTUK MENGATASI KOLINIERITAS DAN PEMANFAATANNYA UNTUK PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN BERDASARKAN DATA GCM (Global Circulation Model) Oleh: GUSTI RUSMAYADI1 dan UMI SALAWATI2 ABSTRACT Prediction of parameter in multiple regression analysis is interesting topics of some research. It can because of some problems in rising at regression that is colinierity problem. Some of methods that used to solve colinierity problem is using principle component regression (PCR), ridge regression and partial least square (PLS). The regression coefficient of PLS can be find iteratively and it has not closed formula to search variant of regression coefficient. GCM data in grid V2272 – V2727 in years 1996 – 2001 and rainfall data from BMKG station (310L Sta) in 1996-2001. The 1996 – 2000 data was used to building model, beside it 2001 data was used to model validated. All of calculation and graph were used Minitab® software on 14.12 versions and Microsoft Excel®. Estimating based on PLS algebra at some iterations have result PRESS value and R2. Varian of X variable with 3 components of model can explain about 66.9% in variant of dependent variable. Minimal PRESS in 5.714.118 value is get at the third iterations with R2 higher at 7%. Analysis of regression with PLS methods to GCM and rainfall data or it was known as statistical downscaling, get prediction value regression model at the third levels. The model can used to prediction rainfall as long as 12 months and it was validated. The optimal PLS based on GCM data can be used to prediction local rainfall. The next research should to used period data GCM and rainfall so can be used to predict period event too, DJF periods for example. Keyword: PLS, PRESS, colinierity, iteration 1 Staf Pengajar pada Jurusan Budidaya Pertanian Faperta UNLAM 2 Staf Pengajar pada Jurusan Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Faperta UNLAM