This document discusses human metasystem transitions from an evolutionary perspective and their implications for the emergence of a "Global Brain". It analyzes how hunting, agriculture, and industry exploited new energy sources and communication/transportation networks to drive societal restructuring. It argues a fourth transition is emerging, enabled by solar/internet technologies, that may give rise to a decentralized, globally-connected intelligent system within this century. This transition may close the human feedback loop and yield a higher-order consciousness or post-human era.

1. Pathway to the Global Brain
What is the nature of the next human metasystem
transition?
*An evolutionary anthropological perspective on a matter of cybernetics

2. “Biological intelligence is a fleeting phase in the
evolution of the universe.”
- Paul Davies

3. The Pathway for Today
1. Human Metasystem Transitions (HMST)
– Hunting, Agriculture, Industry
– Patterns:
• New energy, communication, transportation
• Timing & diffusion
2. HMST = individual/institutional restructuring
mechanisms
3. HMST implications for the “Global Brain”

4. Metasystem Transitions
• How do systems achieve higher order/control?
• System-level continuity (Smith & Szathmáry, 2000)
– Smaller entities:
• Form larger entities and differentiate
• Unable to reproduce in absence of larger entities
• Disrupt development of larger entities
• “Discrete jumps” / “Quantum of evolution”
(Heylighen & Joslyn, 1995)

5. The Human System
• New order/control achieved three times
– Hunting, Agriculture, Industry
• Exploitation of new energy
– Meat / Domestication / Fossil Fuels
• New communication medium
– Language / Writing / Printing Press
• New transportation/agent networks
– Regional / Continental / Inter-continental

6. Hominin Energy
• Great Apes
– Fruit, leaves, other plant types
– Chimps (3% animal meat) (e.g., Basabose, 2002; Moscovice et al., 2007)
– Gorillas/Bonobos (~0-1% animal meat) (Oelze et al., 2011;
Rogers et al., 2004)
• Pre-Homo hominids
– 4mya similar to extant great apes (Sponheimer et al., 2013)
– 4-2mya shift to grasses, sedges, bark (Henry et al., 2012)

7. Hunting
• Emergence of genus Homo (2 mya)
– Regular consumption of animal meat (Schoeninger, 2012)
– Site in East Turkana, Kenya (1.95 mya) (Braun et al., 2010)
• Substantial increase in animal meat (1.7 mya - 200 kya)
– Control of fire (Beaumont, 2011)
– Body & brain size increase (Antón, 2003)
– Total energy expenditure (TEE) (Aiello & Key, 2002)
– Complex technoculture (Ambrose, 2001) / “the ratchet” (Tennie et al., 2009)
• Modern human H&G
– Consumed 45-65% energy from animal meat (Cordain et al., 2000)

8. Communication (#1)
• Gradual emergence of language (Dunbar, 2003)
– Three/four main “movements” (Gamble et al., 2011)
– H. erectus / H. heidelbergensis / H. sapiens (Ambrose, 2001)
• Culture code / symbolic species (Deacon, 1997)
– Shift: percept-based to concept-based thinking (Logan, 2007)
– Theory of Mind (story-telling, “religion”, “science”)
(Dunbar, 2009)
• Stabilizing of “The Ratchet” (Tennie et al., 2009)
– First evidence of multi-generational technoculture

9. Transportation (#1)
• Absolute group sizes increase (~150-250)
– Exponential increase (Dunbar, 2003)
– Mechanism: grooming to language (Gamble et al., 2011)
• Range expansion (two-stage) (Ambrose, 2001)
– Stage 1: Out-of-Africa (1.8-1.0 mya)
• Small ranges (10-20km) / restricted to temperate climes
– Stage 2: Global expansion (~500-100 kya)
• Larger ranges (100+km) / all climes

10. Agriculture
• Seven independent centers (11-3 kya) (Diamond & Bellwood, 2003)
– Eurasia (3)
– Americas (3)
– Africa (1)
• Same system-level patterns (Morris & Farrar, 2010)
– Cultivation of plants / domestication of large animals
– “Full farming”  sedentary complex villages
– Big towns w/ fortressed walls & buildings related to politics/death
– Proto-writing  writing
• Intensification dependent on “crop/animal complexes” (Diamond, 1997)
– Eurasia > Americas > Africa > Australia
• Diffusion dependent on: (Bellwood & Oxenham, 2008)
– Climate/axis, neighbouring systems

11. Communication (#2)
• Four independent writing centers (Trigger, 2004)
– Mesopotamia, Egypt, China, Central America
• Response to increased socio-political complexity
– Organization of administration, taxes, trade (Cooper, 2004)
• Gradual evolution (centuries/millennia)
• Alphabet brings speech/writing together (Stewart, 2010)
– Investment in narration

12. Transportation (#2)
• Continental civilizations with as many as 10–100 m agents
• Mechanisms:
– Agricultural intensification (energy) (Mazoyer & Roudart, 2006)
– Writing (communication) (Cooper, 2004)
– E.g., Yuan Dynasty (Taagepera, 1997), Roman Empire (Taagepera, 1979)
• Gradual – Limits – Outliers
– 11-3 kya – likely no civilization >10 million (Morris & Farrar, 2010; Simmons, 2011)
– 5% net primary productivity (NPP) (Haberl, 2006)
– Mongols, Spanish/Portuguese Empires

13. Industry
• One independent center (Allen, 2009)
– England (~1750-1800)
• Exploitation of fossil fuels (Haberl, 2006)
– Coal, oil, natural gas
– *also – nuclear, hydro, “renewables”
• System pattern
• Diffusion dependent on:
– Geography / colonial power / sovereignty

14. Communication (#3)
• Printing press (1450-1800) (Harnad, 1991)
– Mass communication  restructure society
• Industrial-scale printing press (19th century)
– Global diffusion (Dittmar, 2011)
• First “one-to-many” medium (Dewar, 1998)
– Causative effects: Renaissance, Scientific
revolution(s), Enlightenment (Eisenstein, 1980)

15. Transportation (#3)
• Groups / Empires / Countries / Organizations
– Inter-continental, International, Global (Ferguson, 2004)
– As many as 1-2 billion agents (Smith, 1991)
• Transportation mechanisms for growth:
– Steam engines/ships (19th century) (Geels, 2002)
– Automobiles/planes (20th century) (Smil, 2005)
• Dependent on: (Landes, 2003)
– Industrial intensification (energy)
– Access to information (communication)

16. Timing and Diffusion
• Timing between transitions decrease:
– Hunting: 2 mya – 200 kya
– Agriculture: 10 kya – 2000 C.E.
– Industry: 1750 C.E. – present
• Diffusion between start and end increases
– Hunting required 500k yrs – 1m yrs to mature
– Agriculture required 10k yrs to mature
– Industry will require 300 – 400 yrs to mature

17. Restructuring (#1)
• Hunting/Language enabled everything we
consider human:
– Science
– Religion
– Medicine
– Symbolic relationships (politics, marriage)
– Complex technoculture
• Centered around individual and/or small
groups

18. Restructuring (#2)
• Agriculture/Writing enabled the development
of highly centralized institutions:
– Chiefdoms, Monarchies, etc.
– Pharaohs, Kings, etc.
• Religion, science, marriage, medicine all effectively run
through these institutions
• Degree of centralization makes them
inherently unintelligent
– Challenge Propagation

19. Restructuring (#3)
• Industry/Printing Press enable a shift towards
decentralization
– Politics: religious blood-lines to democratically-elected
career politicians
– Religion: separated from other challenge propagation
centers
– Science/medicine: established as independent
institutions
– Marriage: gradually detached from religion
• Global Brain philosophy
– Individual rights (Enlightenment)

20. The Next Transition?
• The past 100 years:
– Technological singularity (Ulam, 1958; Vinge, 1993; Kurzweil, 2005)
– Global brain (Russel, 1985; Bloom, 2000; Heylighen, 2011)
– The great transition (Raskin, 2010)
– World brain (Wells, 1938)
– Noosphere (Teilhard, 1969)
– The omega point (Schmidhuber, 2006; Teilhard, 1955)
• Emerging realization:
– Something “big” on the near-term horizon
– Usually imagined as: “global” “collective” “planetary” “generally
positive” “new stage of evolution”
– Usually includes: advanced intelligence / end of biological humans

21. Global Brain as HMST
• Energy:
– Solar, geothermal, nuclear fusion, wind (?)
– Emergent source (?)
• Communication:
– Internet at full maturity (“global brain”)
• Transportation:
– Global civilization
– 10-12 billion+ agents
– Mechanisms: hyperloop (?)
• Emergence:
– Timing: 2040-2050
– Diffusion: 1-2 decades

22. Restructuring (#4) (2040s)
• Politics
– Completely decentralized (global distributed voting)
• Religion
– Completely decentralized (religion “as institution” gone)
– Spirituality (?) / Humanism or Transhumanism (?)
• Science/University
– Complete open access / funded directly by public
• Marriage/Sex
– Institutionalized pair bonds will not exist / decentralization of
sex

23. Complete HMST Theory
• Energy and communication feedback loop:
– Hunting / Language
– Agriculture / Writing
– Industry / Printing Press
– Solar / Internet
• Transportation:
– Regional / Continental / Inter-continental / Global
– 250 / 10-100m / 1-2b / 10-12b
• Timing & Diffusion
– Exponential

24. Global Brain
• Will the next HMST close “human” feedback
loop?
• Will higher consciousness emerge?
• Will higher systems-level reproduction
emerge?
• Will this be a post-human era?

25. Thanks for Listening!

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