This document discusses synthesis in science and society. It notes that both the natural world and human world have undergone rapid changes starting in the 19th century that accelerated around 1950. It also discusses the concept of the Anthropocene and the idea of planetary boundaries to define a "safe operating space for humanity." Additionally, it examines the relationship between natural systems and human well-being and the challenges of coping with increasing complexity and growth in the globalized world.

1. Synthesis in science and society – part B
Michael Raupach1,2
1Climate Change Institute, Australian National University, Canberra
2Global Carbon Project, Future Earth
ACEAS Symposium, 7 May 2014
Thanks: colleagues in
• Institutional environments (CSIRO, ANU)
• International environments (Future Earth, Global Carbon Project)
• Project environments (Australia 2050, PMSEIC, AAS Climate Q&A)

2. Rapid change in
the earth system
 Natural (biophysical) world
 Rapid changes start in 19th
century, accelerate around
1950
Steffen et al. (2004)

3. Rapid change in
the earth system
 Human (social, economic)
world
 Rapid changes start in 19th
century, accelerate around
1950
Steffen et al. (2004)

4. The Anthropocene
Biophysical planetary boundaries
Rockström et al. (2009) A safe operating space for humanity. Nature
Nine biophysical “planetary
boundaries” to keep Earth
in a Holocene-like state
 Biodiversity loss
 Climate change
 N & P cycling
------------
 Freshwater use
 Land use change
 Ocean acidification
 Ozone depletion
 Atmos aerosols
 Chemical pollution

5. The Anthropocene
Natural and human wellbeing are now inextricably entwined
Raworth (2012) A safe and just space for humanity (Oxfam)
A “social foundation” for human
wellbeing in the Anthropocene
(Raworth 2012)
 Water
 Food
 Energy
 Health
------------
 Social equity
 Gender equality
 Jobs
 Income
 Education
 Voice
 Resilience

6.  Coping with growth
• Since 1800, global income per
person has doubled every 45 years
• Resource flows and global
environmental impacts have
likewise increased exponentially
100
1000
10000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Per capita GDP
($/y/person)
Year (AD)
Two great challenges
 Coping with complexity
• Trade, technology, media,
information, cultures, arts,
sciences, geopolitics ...
• Way beyond threshold where
everyone is connected to
everyone else
• => many more ways for
instabilities to ripple and grow

7. CIA World Fact Book: www.cia.gov
Connections: the world trade network
Australia
China
USA

8. The complexity challenge
 We live in a highly connected global society
• Trade, technology, media, information, cultures, arts, science ...
• Way beyond threshold where everyone is connected to everyone else
• Connectivity is increasing (internet, social media, online retail)
 Complexity is increasing more rapidly than ever before
 => huge opportunities for innovation and improvement in human wellbeing
 => new dynamics, new instabilities
• Global Financial Crisis: Wall Street misbehaviour hurts whole world
• Children leave the farm for London -> threat to rural viability
 We do not know the world we are creating
 The complexity challenge: learning wisdom

9. Outline
 Establishing the framework
• What is synthesis?
• Why attempt it?
 Examples of synthesis
• Natural sciences: Climate change
The Anthropocene
• Human sciences: Tragedy of the commons
• Contemporary challenge: Nature and humanity
 A synthesis toolbox
• Traditional tools: observation, experiment, modelling
• Tools for synthesis: complexity, evolution, emergence, narratives
• Objective science and subjective values
• Synthesis as story: bridging between the objective and the subjective

10. The toolbox
 Tools of “reductionist” / “essentialist” sciences
 Observation
 Experiment
 Modelling
 Hypothesis testing
 Tools for the disciplines of synthesis
 Mathematics: the search for unifying quantitative patterns
 Complexity, evolution, emergence, resilience
 Narratives
 Dialogue, learning, adaptation
 These are “wormholes”: concepts that connect and unify many branches of
knowledge and wisdom

11. Dennett DC (1993)
Darwin’s Dangerous Idea
 The evolutionary algorithm (diversify,
select, amplify) is the universal engine
for the emergence of complexity in
biota, ecosystems, economies,
technologies and cultures
 Complexity is built with a crane, not a
skyhook

12. HJ Morowitz (2002)
The emergence of everything
1. Primordium
2. Large structure
3. Stars
4. Elements
5. Solar systems
6. Planets
7. Geospheres
8. Biosphere
9. Prokaryotes
10. Cells and
eukaryotes
11. Multicellularity
12. Neurons
13. Intestinal tracts
14. Vertebrates
 28 emergences from the Big Bang to us
15. Fish
16. Amphibians
17. Reptiles
18. Mammals
19. Arboreal
mammals
20. Primates
21. Great Apes
22. Hominids
23. Toolmakers
24. Language
25. Agriculture
26. Technology,
urbanisation
27. Philosophy
28. The spiritual

13. Narratives
 Narratives = stories that guide and empower actions
• Narratives are very powerful, and fundamental to being human
• Narratives are strong medicine: they engage and move us
• Narratives encode, transmit and propagate values
• Narratives are independent of (scientific) truth
 Narratives (in this sense) are NOT –
• Rational, analytic, deductive
• Substrate storylines for scenarios
• Mundane accounts of everyday occurrences
 Some related ideas
• Walter Fisher (1984 et seq) “Narration as a human communication paradigm”
• Roger Schank (1990) “Tell me a story: narrative and intelligence”
• John Dryzek (1997-2013) “Politics of the Earth: environmental discourses”
 Broad narrative families: Benign world <-> Malign world
Individual <-> Societal
Expansion <-> Sustenance

14. Narratives as evolutionary entities
 Hypothesis: Narratives are meme sequences that evolve
• Diversification, selection, adaptation
• Evolution can be understood, influenced, but not controlled
• Example: the decline of many kinds of violence, in many societies (Pinker 2011)
 Implications:
• In shaping our shared future, the evolutionary contest between expansion and
sustenance narratives is just as important as the dynamics of the natural world
• We are collectively trying to:
• Guide the evolution of –
• Resilient narratives –
• That empower a transition to –
• A society that is both sustainable and improves global human wellbeing
Raupach, M.R. (2013). The evolutionary nature of narratives about expansion and sustenance. In: Negotiating Our Future: Living scenarios for Australia to 2050, Vol. 2. (eds. Raupach, M.R., McMichael,
A.J., Finnigan, J.J., Manderson, L., Walker, B.H.). (Australian Academy of Science), 201-213. (http://www.science.org.au/policy/australia-2050/)

15. The relationship between values and science
 Continuum of modes of discourse for a
continuum of realities
• Narratives encode subjective values
• Science encodes objective realities
 Subjective values can (should) take account of
objective realities
 Many objective realities are shaped by
subjective values
 Values and objective realities can get tangled
• Kahan (2013): Partisanship can undermine basic
reasoning skills…. [People] will flunk a math
problem simply because giving the right answer
goes against their political beliefs
• Nyhan (2010-2013): When people are
misinformed, correcting errors with facts only
makes them cling to their beliefs more
tenaciously
• Nickerson (1998): Confirmation bias
Spirit
Mind
Body
Matter
Objective
Subjective
Avoiding confirmation bias:
Ensure likelihood ratio
prob(Data | Hypothesis) /
prob(Data | NullHypothesis)
is >> 1 or << 1

16. Grounds for hope?
 Our broadening understanding
• We are (an unusual) part of the long story of evolutionary emergence
• We are both on a journey and part of a set of great cycles
• Everything is dynamic: sustainability is not stasis
• Synthesis is about learning to see the whole picture, thereby gaining wisdom
 Our capacities for innovation
• New technologies: energy, transport, cities ... – “we can do this”
• New ethical perspectives: learning to walk in the shoes of another
• Coping with complexity: learning to surf the waves of emergence
 Narratives, both old and new
• Stories
• Indigenous, immigrant, farmer, business, art, science, ...
• Creating the narratives that empower transformation
• Openness to strange alliances