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Past, present and future risk
of disasters:
Key drivers of future disaster risk
2016-2020 And Beyond
The Global Disaster Hotspots map for disaster mortality risk.
MARCH 15, 2015: THE SECOND
WORLD CONFERENCE ON
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
CONVENED IN SENDAI, JAPAN
WILL RE-INVIGORATE THE
HISTORIC GLOBAL ENDEAVOR
STARTED IN 1990 BY THE UNITED
NATIONS
FACT:THE WORLD CONFERENCE
CALLED FOR RENEWED ACTION
• Each country is
invited to play a
major role in the
post-conference
call for a “Global
Tsunami of
Action”
FACT: THE GOAL IS CLEAR AND
STILL THE SAME:
REDUCTION OF GLOBAL
VULNERABILITIES AND
ACCELERATION OF DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES”
A DISASTER is still---
--- the set of failures that occur when
the continuums of: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,
earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in
space and time, when and where the
people and community are not ready.
FACT:NATURAL HAZARDS STILL
CAUSE MEGA-DISASTERS
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
FACT:THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM IS
GROWING WITH TIME
• 7 + BILLION
distributed
throughout the
world; many in
vulnerable,
high-risk com-
munities
FACT:MANY COMMUNITIES ARE PARA-
LYZED BY FOUR WEAKNESSES
• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES
• LACK OF CAPACITY
INTERSECTION OF THESE
CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
MOST FUTURE
INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE
A DISASTER, OR A MEGA-
DISASTER, UNLESS - - -
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IS THE WAY FORWARDDISASTER RISK REDUCTION IS THE WAY FORWARD
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH
AMERICA
NORTH
AMERICA
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
MEDITER-
RANEAN
MEDITER-
RANEAN
ISLAND
NATIONS
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIAASIA
SOUTH
AMERICA
SOUTH
AMERICA
EUROPEEUROPE
FACT: EVERY COMMUNITY CAN REDUCE
VULNERABILITIES IN NEW/EXISTING - - -
• GOVERNMENT
CENTERS
• DWELLINGS
• SCHOOLS
• HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES
• BUSINESSES
• INFRA-STRUCTURE
• ETC
LIKE A CHAIN: A COMMUNITY HAS
WEAK LINKS TO STRENGTHEN
THE GOAL: ADOPT
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNOVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST,
AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND
PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE
PARADIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED TO
MOVE AWAY FROM FAILED POLICIES AND
PRACTICES TOWARDS PROVEN DISASTER
RISK REDUCTION ONES
YOUR
COMMUNITY
YOUR
COMMUNITYDATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•FLOODS
•SEVERE WIND
STORMS
•EARTHQUAKES
…ETC
A DISASTER
CAUSES
FAILURES IN POLICIES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
BEST POLICIES AND
PRACTICES
• ADOPTION
•IMPLEMENTATION
DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
Anticipatory Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of Modern
Engineering Building Codes & Standards
Timely Early Warning and Evacuation
Timely Emergency Response (including
Emergency Medical Services)
Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM
OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES
WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,
AND
IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY
CONTINUUMS
BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR STRATEGIC
PLANNING AND
INNOVATIVE USE OF
TECHNOLOGY
BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR STRATEGIC
PLANNING AND
INNOVATIVE USE OF
TECHNOLOGY

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Past present future disaster risk of natural hazards: Key drivers of future disaster risk

  • 1. Past, present and future risk of disasters: Key drivers of future disaster risk 2016-2020 And Beyond The Global Disaster Hotspots map for disaster mortality risk.
  • 2. MARCH 15, 2015: THE SECOND WORLD CONFERENCE ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION CONVENED IN SENDAI, JAPAN WILL RE-INVIGORATE THE HISTORIC GLOBAL ENDEAVOR STARTED IN 1990 BY THE UNITED NATIONS
  • 3. FACT:THE WORLD CONFERENCE CALLED FOR RENEWED ACTION • Each country is invited to play a major role in the post-conference call for a “Global Tsunami of Action”
  • 4. FACT: THE GOAL IS CLEAR AND STILL THE SAME: REDUCTION OF GLOBAL VULNERABILITIES AND ACCELERATION OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF “THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES”
  • 5. A DISASTER is still--- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.
  • 6. FACT:NATURAL HAZARDS STILL CAUSE MEGA-DISASTERS • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARTHQUAKES • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • ETC.
  • 7. FACT:THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM IS GROWING WITH TIME • 7 + BILLION distributed throughout the world; many in vulnerable, high-risk com- munities
  • 8. FACT:MANY COMMUNITIES ARE PARA- LYZED BY FOUR WEAKNESSES • IGNORANCE • APATHY • DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES • LACK OF CAPACITY
  • 9. INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE MOST FUTURE INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, OR A MEGA- DISASTER, UNLESS - - -
  • 10. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IS THE WAY FORWARDDISASTER RISK REDUCTION IS THE WAY FORWARD 200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE 200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA CARIBBEAN BASIN CARIBBEAN BASIN SUB-SAHARA AFRICA SUB-SAHARA AFRICA MEDITER- RANEAN MEDITER- RANEAN ISLAND NATIONS ISLAND NATIONS ASIAASIA SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA EUROPEEUROPE
  • 11. FACT: EVERY COMMUNITY CAN REDUCE VULNERABILITIES IN NEW/EXISTING - - - • GOVERNMENT CENTERS • DWELLINGS • SCHOOLS • HEALTH CARE FACILITIES • BUSINESSES • INFRA-STRUCTURE • ETC
  • 12. LIKE A CHAIN: A COMMUNITY HAS WEAK LINKS TO STRENGTHEN
  • 13. THE GOAL: ADOPT BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES INNOVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARADIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED TO MOVE AWAY FROM FAILED POLICIES AND PRACTICES TOWARDS PROVEN DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ONES
  • 14. YOUR COMMUNITY YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •FLOODS •SEVERE WIND STORMS •EARTHQUAKES …ETC A DISASTER CAUSES FAILURES IN POLICIES FAILURES IN PRACTICES BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES • ADOPTION •IMPLEMENTATION DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
  • 15. BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION Anticipatory Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of Modern Engineering Building Codes & Standards Timely Early Warning and Evacuation Timely Emergency Response (including Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
  • 19. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS
  • 20. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL CALL FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING AND INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL CALL FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING AND INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY