Presentation to the Oregon Legislature on the latest economic and revenue outlook for the State of Oregon. Overview of the U.S. and Oregon economic landscape. Tax revenue tracking and outlook for personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, Lottery sales and recreational marijuana sales.
9. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
9
•Solid data lags the real world
•Channels of Potential Wildfire Impact:
•Short-Term
• Small Business Cash Flow
• Direct Employment
• Transportation Disruptions
•Long-Term
• Lost Timberland or Recreational Areas
• Borrowing Costs
• Business or Population Growth
Wildfires: A Preliminary
Economic Assessment
11. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
11
Yellowstone Mt. Saint Helens
• Eruption turned into
tourist attraction
• Concern that “footloose”
industries not reliant
upon local natural
resources would not
invest moving forward.
Their corporate decisions
tied to quality of life,
clean environment, and
abundant recreational
activities
Back to the Future
12. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
12
Federal Tax Reform
Sources: Office of Economic Analysis,
IRS, Oregon Department of Revenue
22. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
22
How’s Your Earned Kicker
Average?
Sweet Spot / EKA / Median Error / Recessions
Chang Sohn 0 / .500 / 9.1% / 1
Ann Hanus 0 / .833 / 6.0% / 1
Paul Warner 1 / .700 / 2.1% / 0
Tom Potiowsky 0 / .375 / 10.1% / 1
Dae Baek 0 / .000 / 9.8% / 1
Mark McMullen 1 / .667 / 3.2% / 0
OEAHistory 2 / .583 / 5.1% / 4
Sweet Spot: Biennial General Fund Forecast lands 0-2% above COS
EKA: Earned Kicker Average (share of COS resulting in kicker, PIT and CORP)
Median Error: Median absolute biennial General Fund forecast error
Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
State Economist Statistics
23. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
23
•“The key factor fueling growth in the state
continues to be an influx of new residents.”
•“Oregon’s relatively strong performance is
expected to continue despite the sharp
decline in the timber industry. The
geographic distribution of the timber
industry means that many portions of the
state will continue to feel the impact of the
recession much more severely than the
statewide average.”
Paul’s Sweet Spot Forecast
May 1991
24. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
24
Nobody Is Perfect
December 1998: “Recovery in the
semiconductor industry. Excess
capacity in the semiconductor industry
should begin to ease by 1999. A
resumption in OR’s high tech
manufacturing sector is expected to
follow. Announced long-term
investment plans by major companies
are expected to be carried out during
the 2000 to 2005 period. New
investment from suppliers to the
industry is also expected.”
December 1998: “Rising commodity
prices. The slump in agriculture and
natural resource prices is expected to
be turning around by 2000. This will
spur higher income and job growth for
Oregon’s large agriculture and natural
resource sectors.”
June 1990: “A key development in April
was the release of the proposed
Conservation Strategy for the
Protection of the Spotted Owl….The
current forecast assumes that total
timber harvest will decline by 15%
between 1989 and 1993.”