A brief overview of the public sector in rural Oregon. Presentation given to the Oregon House Committee on Economic Development and Trade on May 31st, 2017.

1. The Economic Role of
the Public Sector in
Rural Oregon
Prepared for:
House Committee on Economic Development
and Trade
May 31st, 2017
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Mark McMullen
Josh Lehner

2. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
2
Share of Govt Workers Has
Been Relatively Stable

3. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
3
Keeping Up With the Private
Sector in Rural Areas

4. Oregon Public Sector Wages
Share of All Wages, 2016
Data: QCEW | Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Oregon: 16.5%
> 40%
25 – 33%
20 – 25%
15 – 20%
< 15%

5. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
5
Recessionary Buffer
DemandFor Public
Services
DelayedFunding
Losses
IncreasedCaseloads for Need-Based
Healthcare andIncome
Maintenance Programs (e.g.
Medicaid,SNAP,TANF andUI)
Use of Budget Reserves,Fund
Sweeps andother Revenue
Enhancements at State andLocal
Level
IncreasedEnrollment at Public
Colleges & Universities
IncreasedFederal Funds via
Automatic Stabilizers andStimulus
Spending
Very Large Cyclical Declines inKey
Private Rural Industries
(Manufacturing,Construction& Ag)
Property Taxes Are OftenDivorced
Fromthe Business Cycle
(Fundamentals andM50)
Income Tax Declines LagJobLosses
Time LagFor Infrastructure and
Other Large Capital Projects
Shift to the Public Sector During Recessions

6. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
6
Tomorrow’s Jobs

7. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
7
Contact
mark.mcmullen@oregon.gov
(503) 378-3455
josh.lehner@oregon.gov
(503) 378-4052
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis