U.S. Regional Job and Wage Growth, 2016
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Comparing growth across the U.S. looking at regions, metros and rural areas. Examines jobs, average wages and aggregate wages.
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U.S. Regional Job and Wage Growth, 2016
- 1. 1 U.S. Regional Job and Wage Growth Update July 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 2. 2 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Motivation • U.S. job growth has slowed somewhat in 2016 • Increasing chatter among state forecasters about lackluster revenue trends for both withholding and sales taxes • Is there an actual economic slowdown or are the forecasts too high, thus creating potential budget issues due to forecast errors? • How does growth today compare to the housing boom?
- 3. 3 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis tl;dr summary • Most metros, states and regions are adding jobs today at least as fast as during housing boom • Average wage growth lower everywhere except East North Central and Pacific • Thus, aggregate wage growth today on par with housing boom • Growth being driven by biggest metro areas • Most large metros growing faster today than during housing boom • Spread between big city growth and rural areas largest seen since 1990 recession and mid-80s commodity bust • Oil patch slowdown and job losses are real • Impacts big cities like Houston and Oklahoma City in addition to rural counties in heartland • West North Central and West South Central job growth slowing down • All other regions stable or accelerating job growth
- 4. 4 Census Divisions Jobs, Average Wages and Aggregate Wages
- 5. 5 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis New England CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT
- 6. 6 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Middle Atlantic NJ, NY, PA
- 7. 7 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis East North Central IL, IN, MI, OH, WI
- 8. 8 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis West North Central IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD
- 9. 9 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis South Atlantic DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV
- 10. 10 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis East South Central AL, KY, MS, TN
- 11. 11 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis West South Central AR, LA, OK, TX
- 12. 12 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Mountain AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY
- 13. 13 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Pacific AK, CA, HI, OR, WA
- 14. 14 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 15. 15 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 16. 16 Metro vs Nonmetro Job Growth by Metro Size
- 17. 17 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Big Cities Continue to Drive Growth
- 18. 18 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Growth Rates Diverging
- 19. 19 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Haven’t Seen This Spread In Quite Some Time
- 20. 20 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Nonmetro Slowdown is Oil Patch
- 22. 22 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Most big metros growing faster today than during housing boom
- 23. 23 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis There is an Oil Patch Slowdown
- 24. 24 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis But Impact Seems Concentrated
- 25. 25 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Some Acceleration Elsewhere Helping Make Up the Gap
- 26. 26 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 1
- 27. 27 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 2
- 28. 28 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 3
- 29. 29 Housing Bust Metros 50 Worst Housing Bubble and Bust MSAs, All Sizes
- 30. 30 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 31. 31 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Not Translating into Stronger Labor Force However
- 32. 32 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Contact www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis joshua.lehner@oregon.gov (503) 378-4052