This document provides an overview of solar storms and space weather. It discusses properties of coronal mass ejections and solar flares, why they occur due to the solar magnetic field becoming unstable, and their effects like geomagnetic storms and auroras. Examples of extreme solar storms in 1921, 1982, 2003 and 2012 are presented. The document also describes the Swedish Space Weather Center's role in providing forecasts and information to users in Sweden and internationally.

1. Solar Storms and Space Weather
Extreme solar storm 23 July 2012 - On farside.!
A week earlier it should have been Earth directed!
and caused severe damages to society!
Henrik Lundstedt
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
in Lund, Sweden

2. Outline!
Solar Storms and Space Weather
Solar storms - General observed properties.
- Why do we have solar storms?
Space Weather - General and in Nordic countries.
!
MSB Founded Research Project - Goal (days ahead reliable warnings
of extreme solar storms that
can cause severe damages of
important functions of the
society)
!
Extreme solar storms - 1921, 1982, 2003 and 2012
- Key research questions
- Warnings
- Swedish Space Weather Center of ISES, IRF
- Information, users
!
Today’s space weather - this morning!

3. Solar Storms - General Observed Properties
Coronal mass ejections
(CMEs)
Solar flares
Electromagnetic radiation that
can affect Earth within 8 min.
Energy: ~1018kWh (~1025J)
(corresponding to USA energy
demand during 40 000 years!
Other sun like stars 1000 times
Carrington (=X50?) flares have
been observed.
SOHO
Mass(plasma) ejection of 5-50
billion ton with velocities between
200-3400km/s. The fastest arrived
at Earth 14.6 hours. Shocks CME
produced can accelerate protons
to 10 -100MeV energies, arriving in
about an hour. The most intense
observed proton event reached
43,000 pfu 23/03/1991. Only the
magnetic energy (~1025J) is large
enough to drive a CME.

4. Why Do We Have Solar Storms?
Solar storms in the corona reduce the magnetic field complexity in the corona by
untangle it (solar flares) or transporting it away (CMEs).
When the twist of the
magnetic field (Tw) > 2π
then the flux tube becomes
Kink unstable
Solar Flare CME
Topology bounds the energy to be released.
+
-

5. Solar Observations We Need - All The Time, Whole Sun
SDO launched
11 February 2010
P.I.s of SDO:
!
A.Title (AIA/Lockheed),
P. Scherer (HMI/Stanford)
and T. Woods (EVE/CU)
SDO sends down , to the Ka-band radio
antennas near Las Cruces , New Mexico,
150 Mbits / s data 24 hours a day, seven
days a week. It is 50 times more scientific
data than any other mission in NASA's
history. Every 0.75 s SDO takes images with
10 times higher resolution than high-definition
television . Every 10s Atmospheric
Imaging Assembly (AIA ) produce images
and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager
(HMI) magnetograms and Dopplergrams and
Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment
(EVE) data.

6. Space Weather: Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), Geomagnetic
Storms, Aurora and Geomagnetic Induced Currents (GIC)
CME leaving the Sun Interacting with Earth Reconnection in front Reconnection in the!
plasmatail
Particles accelerated!
down the poles!
producing polar!
light
Aurora in Denmark, 11 October 2010
Aurora oval! polar light (aurora)
1 million Ampere current flowing
Main space weather problem!
in Nordic countries

7. Space Weather Effects
during the
Halloween Events in 2003
Satellite
anomalies
Deep-Space Missions:Mars Odyssey orbiter,
ACE and SOHO, Startdust,SMART-1, Mars
Express: Earth Orbiting Spacecraft:59%
missions experienced effects. $640 million
ADEOS-2 spacecraft was damaged. US
defense couldn’t carry out satellite operations
GPS problems
During 15 hours on October 29th and 11 hours
on October 30th the GPS WAAS couldn’t be
used. No surveys or oil drillings were possible.
TEC increased 30% on October 28th.
HF
communication
problems
Polar flights were not carried out due to
communication problems. MacRay radio had
during 130 hours no communication with
scientists at Arctic.
Radiation
problems
Astronautes onboard ISS had to take
precautionary shelter.
Polar lights
Northern Light (Aurora) was seen at
Mediterranean latitude, Southern California and
Southern light in Australia.
GIC problems Malmö, in Sweden, experienced a blackout on
October 30th due to strong GICs.

8. Key Questions
about “Extreme Solar Storms” !
that we address in our research project funded by MSB
• How often do they occur?
• How to obtain a measure and model an extreme solar storm?
• How to forecast them days ahead?

9. Extreme Solar Storms in 1921, 1982, 2003 and 2012
May 15, 14:25
(Kvistaberg, Uppsala)
Simulated MW
magnetogram
May 1921
Southern polar
lights observed
on Apia Samoa
Dst = -900 nT
dB/dt of
~5000nT/min!
Reference: Baker,D., et al., 2013; Kappenman, J. G., 2006; !
Lundstedt, H., 2012; NOAA Mem., 2004.
aa
!
X28 solar flare and
CME
4 November 2003
Medium solar!
cycle -Three !
years after max.
Weak solar cycle - Four years after max
13 July 1982
Weak!
solar cycle!
at max
Farside
On 23 July 2012 a CME was
ejected from solar farside with
a velocity of ~3000 km/s !
according to STEREO.
Estimated Dst ≈-1182nT. Larger
than 1859 Carrington event!
Medium solar!
cycle -Three !
years after max.
Dst = - 328 nT (14/7)
dB/dt of (13-14/7)
2600 nT/min!

10. Topological Torus Model of Extreme Solar Storms
Simulated daily Mount Wilson magnetograms
of May1921 using four tori cuts.

11. HARP Region 3169 (NOAA 121092)!
17 October - 27 October 2014
E13
X class 3.1 solar
flare!
24 October 23:41
Solar flares
• 26 M-flares
• 6 X-flares
Earth-directed!
CMEs
• 0 !
24 October !
HMI/AIA/SDO
X1.1 X1.6 X3.1 X1.0 X2.0
E13 W22 W37
X2.0
27Oct
E64 W57
SDO/HMI Tracked AR (HARP)!
2014/10/26!
10:00

12. HARP Region 3281 (old 3169)!
14 November - 24 November 2014
E13
Solar flares
• 4 M-flares
• 0 X-flares
Earth-directed!
CMEs
• 0 !
16 November !
HMI/AIA/SDO
SDO/HMI Tracked AR (HARP)!
2014/11/24!
13:00
M5.7 class solar
flare!
16 November

13. RWC-Sweden (Swedish Space Weather Center) of ISES,!
of Swedish Institute of Space Physics (IRF)
http://src.irf.se
London
Graz
ISES Meeting 2013, Boulder, Colorado

14. Forecasts Based on Real-time Measurements at L1
Real-time solar wind data
at L1 from ACE.
Replaced by DSCOVR 2016

15. List of Users of Service and Information !
from RWC-Sweden
Regular users!
!
1. Myndigheten för Samhällsskydd och Beredskap (MSB) !
- TiB - Tjänsteman i Beredskap.!
2. Svenska Kraftnät (SvK) – “Avsiktsförklaring om !
informationsutbyte och köp av tjänster vid förhöjd !
solaktivitet”.!
3. Swedish Armed Forces METOC Centre, Enköping.!
4. International Space Environment Service (ISES) med!
16 regionala varningscentra (RWCs).!
5. ESA VISPANET, Eta max.!
6. ESA Redu, Belgien.!
7. EU SpaceCast. Projektledare R. Horne, Cambridge, UK.!
8. EU, EURISGIC.!
9. DH Consultancy, Belgien.!
10. Mullard Space Science Laboratory (MSSL), UCL,UK.
Occasional users!
!
1. Kärnkraftverk Forsmark 3.!
2. Kärnkraftverk OKG, Eon.!
3. Trafikverket (Banverket) – inverkan på signalsystem.!
4. Sjö- och luftfartsavdelningen, Transportstyrelsen,!
Inspektör flygtrafik.!
5. FOI, Linköping, finansierat projektet “Testtjänster för !
rymdväder”.!
6. Polisen i Göteborg.!
7. Lantmäteriet om GPS påverkan.!
8. Universitet och tekniska högskolor (examensarbeten) !
i Sverige (information).!
9. Media: SVT, TV4, TV6, 3-SAT, ZDF, SR, Norsk radio,!
Rymdkanalen, Sydsvenskan, DN, SvD, NyTeknik, !
Allt om Rymden osv.!
10. Allmänheten (brevduveföreningar), skolelever.
International users 5-9 notify us immediately!
if the service is down. For them the service is critical.
With our new website !
“Swedish Space Weather Center” (RWC-Sweden) src.irf.se !
we can better follow the users of our service.

16. A Solar Storm on 10 September 2014!
Big in Media but no Extreme Storm
X1.6,17:45UT Sep. 10 CME V≈800km/s
Message to MSB and SvK
(=interested Kp>≈5) - no or minor
effects Uppsala 30-min max
|dB/dt|= 48nT/min 17.21 UT
Kp 7!
G3
Auroras !
Netherland
Auroras !
Denmark
max!
≈100pfu
Sep 13 03.41 am Sep 13 07.45 am
Auroras !
Sweden
Abisko
Sep 13 08.46 am
SVT

17. Today’s Solar Storms and Space Weather
15 oktober
20 oktober 20 oktober
The End -
Thank You!