This document discusses using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to help address challenges in developing climate policy given multiple objectives. MCDA can help make the decision process more transparent, allow both quantitative and qualitative criteria to be considered equally, and explore trade-offs in a structured way. While time consuming, MCDA has been used in some countries' climate policy work to analyze mitigation options across criteria like jobs and economic impacts. The document concludes that MCDA approaches require resources but can engage stakeholders and incorporate multiple development objectives into climate policy decisions if done properly.

1. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios
MAPS
Multi-criteria decision analysis in climate policy
Centre for Policy Research Workshop
21 May 2015
Dr Brett Cohen
Energy Research Centre
University of Cape Town
South Africa

2. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios
Challenges of a multiple objectives approach
• When you have multiple objectives, some are quantitative and
some are qualitative
• Traditional energy and climate models concentrate on quantitative
criteria:
• GDP
• Employment
• CO2
• Harder to include qualitative measures
• Don’t provide guidance as to what is “preferred” or prioritised
• Job creation vs cost
• Poverty alleviation vs GHG mitigation potential
• Often decisions are not transparent, participative or repeatable

3. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios
How can MCDA help overcome these
challenges?
• MCDA provides a variety of tools that:
• Support structured approaches to framing the decision process that
makes it transparent, defensible and repeatable
• Allow for engagement of stakeholders throughout the decision
process, thereby increasing buy-in and access to data
• Allow for quantitative and qualitative criteria to be considered
simultaneously on an equal footing
• Quantitative scales, proxy scales and constructed scales
• Allow for exploring trade-offs and the implications thereof in a
structured fashion (through weighting and compensation)
• Conducting sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
• Ultimately it’s about a “Good process” vs necessarily a “good answer”

4. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios
Uses of MCDA
• Used for complex problems:
• Multiple stakeholders with different views
• Multiple criteria/objectives
• Transparent and defensible decision processes
• Historically used for discrete decision problems rather
than policy setting

5. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios
Challenges
• (Very) time consuming and resource intensive
• Requires ongoing engagement from stakeholders
• Requires a skilled decision analyst
• Stakeholders may argue that the process is not
accessible/understandable
• People looking for a single point result without appreciating:
• Process as important as the outcome
• Results are sensitive to the input parameters (like any modeling)
• Uncertainty/sensitivity analysis an important part of exercise and
interpretation of the results

6. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios
Has MCDA been used in climate policy?
• South Africa:
• Mitigation potential analysis
• Co-benefits of mitigation technologies analysed:
• Jobs
• Contribution to GDP
• Water
• etc
• Qualitative high level analysis which allowed stakeholders to come
to grips with the multiple impacts of climate mitigation technologies

7. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios
Has MCDA been used in climate policy?
• Colombia:
• Attempt to rank mitigation options on a qualitative (1-5 scale) for
>70 co-benefits
• However scoring scales were not well defined
• Stakeholder fatigue after ranking x alternatives – put down any
answers
• Chile:
• Attempted to used MCDA in their climate planning process
• After trying to quantify multiple objectives, ended up with three
parameters – feasibility of implementation, abatement cost and
abatement potential
• Provided a sound platform for engagement on the multiple
development issues

8. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios
In summary…
• MCDA approaches require time and resource investment and
stakeholder engagement
• Having said this, if decision making around policy is to truly
engage with multiple development objectives, MCDA provides
an established set of approaches

9. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios
Who Supports MAPS
Thank You
www.mapsprogramme.org