CPR-TCPD Dialogues on Indian Politics: Discussion on 'Unpacking the results of the Karnataka Elections'
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Presentation by Neelanjan Sircar, presented at the Centre for Policy Research on 25 May 2018.
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CPR-TCPD Dialogues on Indian Politics: Discussion on 'Unpacking the results of the Karnataka Elections'
- 1. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Unpacking the Karnataka Election Coalition, Identity, and the Future Neelanjan Sircar Centre for Policy Research 25 May 2018 Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 2. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Preliminaries How Did We Get Here? Party System Karnataka 2013 Results Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 3. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Preliminaries How Did We Get Here? Party System Karnataka 2018 Results Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 4. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Preliminaries How Did We Get Here? Party System The Complexity on the Ground Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 5. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Preliminaries How Did We Get Here? Party System How Did We Get Here? 1 BS Yeddyurappa resigns as CM (from BJP) in 2011 2 Forms KJP and takes Lingayats with him 3 BJP base splits, and Congress wins Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 6. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Preliminaries How Did We Get Here? Party System How Did We Get Here? 1 BS Yeddyurappa resigns as CM (from BJP) in 2011 2 Forms KJP and takes Lingayats with him 3 BJP base splits, and Congress wins 4 CM Siddaramaiah enacts a number of welfare schemes 5 Initiates the “AHINDA” strategy 6 Distinguished from JD(S) Vokkaliga base Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 7. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Preliminaries How Did We Get Here? Party System How Did We Get Here? 1 BS Yeddyurappa resigns as CM (from BJP) in 2011 2 Forms KJP and takes Lingayats with him 3 BJP base splits, and Congress wins 4 CM Siddaramaiah enacts a number of welfare schemes 5 Initiates the “AHINDA” strategy 6 Distinguished from JD(S) Vokkaliga base 7 Yeddyurappa rejoins BJP before this election and becomes CM face 8 Siddaramaiah attempts to split Lingayat vote with “minority status” Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 8. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Preliminaries How Did We Get Here? Party System Party System Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 9. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization JD(S) as Spoiler Winner Spoiler NumberofSeats 051015202530 South Karnataka 24 4 Winner Spoiler NumberofSeats 051015202530 Bangalore Karnataka 7 5 Winner Spoiler NumberofSeats 051015202530 Coastal Karnataka 0 3 Winner Spoiler NumberofSeats 051015202530 Bombay Karnataka 2 7 Winner Spoiler NumberofSeats 051015202530 Central Karnataka 0 11 Winner Spoiler NumberofSeats 051015202530 Hyderabad Karnataka 4 13 Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 10. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Bringing the Lingayats Back 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 −0.20.00.20.4 KJP Share 2013 VoteShareDifference(2013to2018) q q BJP Congress Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 11. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Muslim Impact on the Congress Vote 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 BJP + KJP Congress BJP + KJP Congress 01020304050 VoteShare(%) 28 33 37 37 33 41 37 40 Muslim% < 13 Muslim% > 13 Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 12. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization SC Impact on the Congress Vote 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 BJP + KJP Congress BJP + KJP Congress 01020304050 VoteShare(%) 33 41 39 39 27 32 34 38 SC% < 18 SC% > 18 Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 13. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Pre-Poll Alliance [JD(S) + Congress]? Baseline Full Transfer 5% Swing 10% Swing Seats 050100150 116 150 140 130 Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 14. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Cong+BJP+JD(S) Vote Shares 2008 2013 2018 Percentage 020406080100 88.4 76.7 92.5 Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 15. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Vote Share of Major Parties in UP (%) 2002 2007 2012 2017 Year of Election 77.5 82.5 83.4 91.6 Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 16. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election
- 17. Introduction JD(S) as Spoiler Bringing the Lingayats Back Did AHINDA Work? Pre-Poll Alliance? BJP and Mobilization Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support Neelanjan Sircar Unpacking the Karnataka Election