2. Background
Urban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of Access
Conclusions
The Lead Up
From Caste to Class
Election Results
The Lead Up
BJP came to power in 1995 under Keshubhai Patel and has
been in power since then (22 years)
Extremely stable coalition – between 1995 and 2012, BJP won
between 115 to 127 out of 182 seats
The banner of Hindu identity created a cross-caste coalition
Hardik Patel – a political superstar
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
3. Background
Urban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of Access
Conclusions
The Lead Up
From Caste to Class
Election Results
From Caste to Class
Caste patronage vs. caste mobilization (for class)
The impossibility of balancing rural and urban prices
Proximate trigger: Dropping prices of cotton and groundnut
The human development problem
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
4. Background
Urban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of Access
Conclusions
The Lead Up
From Caste to Class
Election Results
Election Results for Gujarat 2012 and 2017
182 seats total
BJP won 115 seats in 2012 but only 99 in 2017
Vote shares – 2012: 48% 2017: 49%
Congress won 61 seats in 2012 but only 77 in 2017
Vote shares – 2012: 39% 2017: 41%
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
5. Background
Urban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of Access
Conclusions
The Lead Up
From Caste to Class
Election Results
BJP Strike Rates
2012
63
2017
54
010203040506070
BJPStrikeRate
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
8. Background
Urban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of Access
Conclusions
Big Cities
Agricultural Share
Big Cities
2012
90
2017
90
2012
55
2017
44
01030507090
BJPStrikeRate
Big City Others
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
9. Background
Urban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of Access
Conclusions
Big Cities
Agricultural Share
Increasing Polarization Visible
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
0.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
Proportion Urban in AC
EstimatedBJPStrikeRate
2012
2017
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
10. Background
Urban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of Access
Conclusions
Big Cities
Agricultural Share
Increasing Polarization Visible
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
0.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
Proportion Urban in AC
EstimatedBJPStrikeRate
2012
2017
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
11. Background
Urban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of Access
Conclusions
Big Cities
Agricultural Share
Agricultural Share
2012
80
2017
73
2012
49
2017
30
01030507090
BJPStrikeRate
Ag. % < 50 Ag. % > 65
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
12. Background
Urban-Rural Polarization
Inequality of Access
Conclusions
Identity
Amenities
Characterizing Economic Inequality
Challenges for Policy and Parties
The Impossibility of Urban and Rural Prices (w/o human
development)
Is this an anomaly for Congress? How does Congress Hardik
Patels inside the party?
Next year could be tricky for BJP
Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017