Monte Carlo simulation is used for energy risk management in deregulated power markets. It allows modeling of uncertain risk drivers like weather, loads, and prices in a realistic way that accounts for correlations and maintains distributions. The key steps are model specification, estimation, simulation, calibration, and decision optimization. Simulation results can value portfolios, determine optimal hedging levels, assess risk, and identify profit-maximizing trades under uncertainty.
ML7 in Clinical Use: Designs and Features for Success is a presentation given by L. Shawn Wong, MD at the 2012 ESCRS Convention in Milan, Italy. In the presentation, Dr. Wong describes the long list of features that creates for outstanding clinical outcomes and happy surgeons.
ML7 in Clinical Use: Designs and Features for Success is a presentation given by L. Shawn Wong, MD at the 2012 ESCRS Convention in Milan, Italy. In the presentation, Dr. Wong describes the long list of features that creates for outstanding clinical outcomes and happy surgeons.
Earned Value Probabilistic Forecasting Using Monte Carlo SimulationRicardo Viana Vargas
The aim of this article is to present a proposal of interconnection between models and probabilistic simulations of project as possible ways to determine EAC (Final cost) through Earned Value Analysis. The article proves that the use of the 3 main models of projection (constant index, CPI and SCI) as the basis of a triangular probabilistic distribution that, through Monte Carlo simulation will permit associate and determine the probability according to the accomplishment of budgets and costs of the project.
Earned Value Probabilistic Forecasting Using Monte Carlo SimulationRicardo Viana Vargas
The aim of this article is to present a proposal of interconnection between models and probabilistic simulations of project as possible ways to determine EAC (Final cost) through Earned Value Analysis. The article proves that the use of the 3 main models of projection (constant index, CPI and SCI) as the basis of a triangular probabilistic distribution that, through Monte Carlo simulation will permit associate and determine the probability according to the accomplishment of budgets and costs of the project.
To simulate is to try to duplicate the features, appearance and characteristics of a real system.
The idea behind simulation is to imitate a real-world situation mathematically, to study its properties and operating characteristics, to draw conclusions and make action decisions based on the results of the simulation.
The real-life system is not touched until the advantages and disadvantages of what may be a major policy decision are first measured on the system's model.
Calvert, Do ‘normal’ traffic conditions really exist? Why modelling variation...flmkessels
Presentation by Simeon Calvert in Masterclass on 16 May 2012 on his phd research on probabilistic traffic flow models and "Help I've got a supervisor".
This is a presentation from ITC Limited, one of the finalists at the 5th CII-GBC National
Award for Excellence in Water Management in 2008.
The awards are in 2 categories, Within the Fence for work done on minimizing the organisations water footprint, and Beyond the Fence for work done in the community around the industry.
This presentation was in the "Within the Fence" category.
We thank CII and the respective companies for giving us permission to upload these presentations on the India Water Portal website for dissemination to a wider audience.
Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Navigating an Uncertain Global Enviro...ggrey
Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Navigating an Uncertain Global Environment by Mr. Naoyuki Shinohara, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund - IMF Forum held at the Asian Institute of Management
Competitive data science: A tale of two web servicesDavid Thompson
Initial results from the Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmacueticals, Inc. 'Predicting a biological response' Kaggle competition. Presented at the Fall ACS 2012 #CINF session "When Chemists and Computers Collide: Putting Cheminformatics in the Hands of Medicinal Chemists"
Winter is coming to an end and the peak season for outdoor water use is on the horizon. Are you prepared?
Join Steve McKinnon, Water Compliance Coordinator at the Region of Halton, where you will learn:
• The importance of having an outdoor water use management program
• Best practices to ensure the implementation of an effective outdoor water use management program
• Progressive tactics to manage peak summer water demand
Antonio Mora, Antonio Fernández-Ares, Juan-J Merelo-Guervós, Pablo García-Sánchez
This work describes an evolutionary algorithm (EA) for evolving the constants, weights and probabilities of a rule-based decision engine of a bot designed to play the Planet Wars game. The evaluation of the individuals is based on the result of some non-deterministic combats, whose outcome depends on random draws as well as the enemy action, and is thus noisy. This noisy fitness is addressed in the EA and then, its effects are deeply analysed in the experimental section. The conclusions shows that reducing randomness via repeated combats and re-evaluations reduces the effect of the noisy fitness, making then the EA an effective approach for solving the problem.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
2. Outline of Talk
• Background on Deregulated Power Markets
Regulated vs. Deregulated Power markets
Market Structure and Participants
Risk Exposures
• Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Deterministic Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation
Optimizing the Decision Making Process
• Monte Carlo Simulation
Model Specification
Model Estimation
Model Simulation
Calibration
Benchmarking
3. Analytics for Deregulated Power Markets
• Business questions:
What is my portfolio worth? (valuation)
How much of my expected dispatch output should I sell into
the forward market? (hedging)
How much money can I lose? (risk management)
What trades should I enter into so I can maximize my profits
and minimize my risk? (portfolio optimization)
10. Decision Making Under Uncertainty
• Risk Drivers
Deterministic scenario planning models
Sensitivity analysis
Monte Carlo simulation
• Optimizing the Decision Making Process
Unconstrained Optimization
Constrained Optimization
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12. Deterministic Planning Models
• Deterministic planning models
Pro:
o Simple
Con:
o How to come up with assumptions?
o Are these assumptions realistic?
o Doesn’t acknowledge uncertainty
o Can lead to biased decisions
12
16. Sensitivity Analysis
• Sensitivity analysis
Pro:
o Simple
Con:
o How to create sensitivity scenarios?
o Are these scenarios realistic?
• In general the following does not hold, especially for nonlinear functions
E[𝑓 𝑋 ] ≠ 𝑓(𝐸 𝑋 )
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17. Monte Carlo Simulation
• Monte Carlo simulation
Pro:
o Realistic representations of possible states of the world (this could actually happen)
o Correlations are maintained
o Can benchmark against actual price distributions
Cons:
o Complex, slow
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18. Optimizing the Decision Process
• Given the prices, we want to optimize a decision process
• Example:
European Call Option
o Value a call option, value=max(P-K,0) simple decision rule, if P>K then exercise,
otherwise don’t
o Decisions today don’t impact decisions tomorrow
Power Plant
o Operational constraints can’t turn on and off instantly
o How to optimize the decision process, given that decisions today impact possible
decisions tomorrow?
o Answer is provided through dynamic programming
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21. Monte Carlo Framework
- Model Specification
- Specify a model of the fundamental risk drivers
- Model Estimation
- Estimate the unknown parameters of the model
- Simulation
- Simulate the risk drivers
- Calibration
- Use any known information to calibrate the simulations, to match observed real world
quantities
- Decision Making
- Optimize the decision process
- Summarize
- Summarize the outcomes (e.g. using probability distributions)
36. Analytics for Deregulated Power Markets
• Business questions:
What is my portfolio worth? (valuation)
How much of my expected output should I sell into the
forward market? (hedging)
How much money can I lose? (risk management)
What trades should I enter into so I can maximize my profits
and minimize my risk? (portfolio optimization)
37. What is My Portfolio Worth?
Gross Margin At Expected
Risk Value of
Portfolio
37
38. How Sensitive is My Portfolio To Prices?
Sensitivity of gross
margin = $19 million
per $/MWh
Optimal forward sale = ~1500 MW
38
39. Questions?
Scotty Nelson
snelson@ascendanalytics.com
39