Bryan Henry Meteorologist for NRCC presents "Montana's Fire Season Official Outlook 2013" at the 2013 Clark Fork River Basin Task Force Meeting.

1. Fire Season 2013
Official Outlook
Bryan Henry
Meteorologist
NRCC
Ash Creek
2012

2. 2012 1,497,972
2006 1,201,117
2007 1,185,199
2000 1,087,920
2003 942,022
2008 241,854
2001 223,310
1999 218,106
2011 198,624
2005 185,457
2002 172,197
2010 70,474
2009 69,016
2004 40,840
Median 220,708
Average 523,865
Recent History Shows…
Data
• Fire seasons across the
Northern Rockies Region
fall entirely into three
categories: Much Above
Normal, Normal, and
Below Normal
• There is no “Above
Normal” category. Either
~220,000 acres burn or a
million acres (+/-) burn.
• Note the dramatic
increase in the number of
Much Above Normal Years
since 2000!!!!!!!!!!
• It’s a new era.
2013?
Acres Burned

3. Fall Moisture and
Preexisting Drought
Conditions
Winter
Snowpack
Melt
Spring
Factor
July
Temperatures and
Precipitation
Live/Dead Fuel
Moisture
Summer
Convection
Ocean/Atmospheric
Circulations
(ENSO/PDO/etc.)
Factors that Influence Fire Season Severity

Spring was
a “mixed
bag” with a
wet finish.
Fall was “near average”
across the NR region
Snowpack
is melting
at a faster
than normal
rate

4.  Image 2 A: Fire sizes in relation to snow melt off date
(basically, the earlier the melt off date, the larger the fires
tend to be).
 Image 2B: Number of large fires at mid elevations in
relation to snow melt off dates. (Basically, the earlier the
melt off date, the more large fires that develop).
*Note that the data only goes through 2002!

5. Effects of Climate Change on Numbers
of Large Fires
Figure 4a scatter plot of
annual number of
large (> 200 ha) forest
wildfires versus avg
spring and summer
temperature for the
Western USA USFS,
Park Service, and BIA
management units
reporting 1972 - 2004.
Fires reported as igniting
in forested areas
only.
Big Jump in #
of large fires
in years that
are .3 degrees
warmer than
normal.

7. Number of Thunderstorm
Days/Year (NOAA)

9. Observed Precipitation (Last 7 days)

10. Percent of Normal Precipitation (Last 7 days)

11. This area is a former area of
major concern. However,
significant precipitation
received during May has
reduced concerns. With that
said, severe drought
conditions linger.
Percent of Normal Precipitation (Last 30 days)
Area of
Most
Concern
Some “ABOVE
NORMAL”
potential
exists.

12. Model Precipitation Estimates Today through Friday

13. Map shows some recent improvement across SC and SE
MT. SW MT still has some areas that are quite dry.

14. 30 Day Temps Reflect Pattern Change to Spring

15. Snowpack
coming
off faster
than
normal in
SW/SC
MT

16. CPC Outlooks 8-14 Day

17. CPC Outlooks
(June 2013)

18. Outlooks for Fire Season
(July-September)

19. Thoughts on Fire Season
2013
 The Pburg fire at Discovery Ski Area was a false
start.
 Normal start expected all locations.
 Drought across SW MT will persist and expand in
areal coverage by early summer.
 Anticipate abnormally dry conditions across Central
ID to develop into Moderate Drought by start of fire
season.
 Tropical forecasts and anticipated ridge positioning
suggest at least “normal” lightning activity again this
year.

20. Normal
Normal
See Text
Normal
August-September
ABOVE NORMAL
AUGUST THROUGH
MID-SEPTEMBER
Text Some recent drought relief has occurred. However, a
large portion of SC MT remains under moderate to
severe drought. Area may become susceptible to
ABOVE NORMAL fire activity in August should
abnormally warm and dry conditions develop.