This is a forecast of the 2021 wildfire season led by Richard Carr from the Canadian Forest Service. The webinar summarizes the current conditions in Canada and provided a forecast for the 2021 wildfire season.
ICLR Forecast: 2019 Wildfire Season (May 17, 2019)glennmcgillivray
On May 17, 2019, ICLR provided a forecast of the 2019 wildfire season led by Richard Carr from the Canadian Forest Service. The interactive webinar summarized the current conditions in Canada and provided a forecast for the 2019 wildfire season.
Richard Carr provides fire weather processing for the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) and international projects. He also provides fire weather briefings to the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) fire group, the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC), and to federal emergency response personnel, and helps provide seasonal forecasting of fire risk. Richard helps provide information to the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment Outlook, and the North American Drought Monitor via AAFC’s Canadian Drought Monitor. Richard represents NRCan-CFS in the CIFFC Forest and Fire Meteorology Working Group.
ICLR wildfire season forecast 2018 (Richard Carr, Canadian Forest Service)glennmcgillivray
On May 16, ICLR hosted a special webinar which provided a forecast of the 2018 wildfire season. The session was led by Richard Carr, Fire Research Analyst for the Canadian Forest Service. The interactive webinar summarized the current conditions in Canada and provided a forecast for the 2018 fire season. Richard provides fire weather processing for the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) and international projects. He provides fire weather briefings to the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) fire group, the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC), and to federal emergency response personnel, and helps provide seasonal forecasting of fire risk. He also helps provide information to the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment Outlook, and the North American Drought Monitor via AAFC’s Canadian Drought Monitor. He represents NRCan-CFS in the CIFFC Forest and Fire Meteorology Working Group.
ICLR Forecast Webinar: 2014 Canadian wildfire season (June 6, 2014)glennmcgillivray
On June 6, 2014 ICLR held a Webinar providing a forecast of the 2014 Canadian wildfire season. The interactive webinar, lead by Kerry Anderson of the Canadian Forest Service, summarized current fire conditions in Canada and provided a forecast for the 2014 wildfire season.
Kerry Anderson is a fire research scientist with the Canadian Forest Service. Dr. Anderson received his B.Sc. in 1985, M.Sc. in 1991 and Ph.D in 2009 at the University of Alberta. His PhD thesis entitled "A Multi-scale Approach to Fire-growth Modelling" examined predicting forest fire growth over a range of scales from hourly to seasonally.
His M.Sc. thesis entitled "Models to Predict Lightning Occurrence and Prediction over Albert" examined the ability to forecast lightning using upper air soundings.
Dr. Anderson is actively involved in research to predict smoke forecasting, fire weather and fire behaviour. Through this research, Dr. Anderson has and continues to develop models to assist fire management agencies in daily operational planning by predicting the potential impact of fires on the landscape.
AI BOOT CAMP PROJECT ONE DECK - Preview v3.pdfJohn Andrews
UNC AI Bootcamp project 1. Using public dataset for future prediction. In this project, our team analyzed various datasets using Python tools to predict sea level rise in Wilmington, NC over the next decade. We also created a codeset to compare any two costal cities over the next decade.
Abstract: This program provides a comparison of sea level rise between two cities. It offers detailed visualizations of historical sea level data. Additionally, it projects future trends based on various scenarios and highlights potential impacts on coastal communities, empowering users to make informed decisions regarding adaptation and mitigation strategies.
This program was originally designed to help New Hanover County allocate funds to mediate the effect of sea level rise. All data is average monthly in the format yyyy-mm-01. All data is assumed to be on the 1st of the month. However, the program is written to compare any 2 locations in the world where sea level data is available. city1 = location 1. This sea level rise data is compared to northern hemisphere temperature. A correlation between sea level rise to northern hemisphere temperature rise city2 = location 2. The sea level rise from location 1 and location 2 are plotted, and a correlation is determined.The PSMSL.org data is used because, at some sites, sea level data is available for more than 80 years. The data utilized in this program is sourced from PSMSL.org, a reputable organization known for providing comprehensive and reliable sea level data. PSMSL.org is recognize at numerous coastal sites worldwide. The organization's commitment to data integrity and accuracy makes it a trusted source for scientific research and policy-making.
Wilmington is among the sites monitored by PSMSL.org, with sea level data available since 1935. Remarkably, only 17 data points are missing from this extensive dataset, ensuring a robust analysis of sea level trends in the region. The reference point established in 1970, set at -7000 mm, serves as a valuable baseline for understanding mean sea level variations over time. Missing data points, denoted by -9999, have been systematically cleaned to maintain the integrity of the analysis.
The full project can be accessed here: https://github.com/GuyInFreezer/project-1/tree/main
Team Members: Jay Requarth, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin, Matt Nicholas and Jana Avery
ICLR Forecast: 2019 Wildfire Season (May 17, 2019)glennmcgillivray
On May 17, 2019, ICLR provided a forecast of the 2019 wildfire season led by Richard Carr from the Canadian Forest Service. The interactive webinar summarized the current conditions in Canada and provided a forecast for the 2019 wildfire season.
Richard Carr provides fire weather processing for the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) and international projects. He also provides fire weather briefings to the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) fire group, the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC), and to federal emergency response personnel, and helps provide seasonal forecasting of fire risk. Richard helps provide information to the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment Outlook, and the North American Drought Monitor via AAFC’s Canadian Drought Monitor. Richard represents NRCan-CFS in the CIFFC Forest and Fire Meteorology Working Group.
ICLR wildfire season forecast 2018 (Richard Carr, Canadian Forest Service)glennmcgillivray
On May 16, ICLR hosted a special webinar which provided a forecast of the 2018 wildfire season. The session was led by Richard Carr, Fire Research Analyst for the Canadian Forest Service. The interactive webinar summarized the current conditions in Canada and provided a forecast for the 2018 fire season. Richard provides fire weather processing for the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) and international projects. He provides fire weather briefings to the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) fire group, the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC), and to federal emergency response personnel, and helps provide seasonal forecasting of fire risk. He also helps provide information to the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment Outlook, and the North American Drought Monitor via AAFC’s Canadian Drought Monitor. He represents NRCan-CFS in the CIFFC Forest and Fire Meteorology Working Group.
ICLR Forecast Webinar: 2014 Canadian wildfire season (June 6, 2014)glennmcgillivray
On June 6, 2014 ICLR held a Webinar providing a forecast of the 2014 Canadian wildfire season. The interactive webinar, lead by Kerry Anderson of the Canadian Forest Service, summarized current fire conditions in Canada and provided a forecast for the 2014 wildfire season.
Kerry Anderson is a fire research scientist with the Canadian Forest Service. Dr. Anderson received his B.Sc. in 1985, M.Sc. in 1991 and Ph.D in 2009 at the University of Alberta. His PhD thesis entitled "A Multi-scale Approach to Fire-growth Modelling" examined predicting forest fire growth over a range of scales from hourly to seasonally.
His M.Sc. thesis entitled "Models to Predict Lightning Occurrence and Prediction over Albert" examined the ability to forecast lightning using upper air soundings.
Dr. Anderson is actively involved in research to predict smoke forecasting, fire weather and fire behaviour. Through this research, Dr. Anderson has and continues to develop models to assist fire management agencies in daily operational planning by predicting the potential impact of fires on the landscape.
AI BOOT CAMP PROJECT ONE DECK - Preview v3.pdfJohn Andrews
UNC AI Bootcamp project 1. Using public dataset for future prediction. In this project, our team analyzed various datasets using Python tools to predict sea level rise in Wilmington, NC over the next decade. We also created a codeset to compare any two costal cities over the next decade.
Abstract: This program provides a comparison of sea level rise between two cities. It offers detailed visualizations of historical sea level data. Additionally, it projects future trends based on various scenarios and highlights potential impacts on coastal communities, empowering users to make informed decisions regarding adaptation and mitigation strategies.
This program was originally designed to help New Hanover County allocate funds to mediate the effect of sea level rise. All data is average monthly in the format yyyy-mm-01. All data is assumed to be on the 1st of the month. However, the program is written to compare any 2 locations in the world where sea level data is available. city1 = location 1. This sea level rise data is compared to northern hemisphere temperature. A correlation between sea level rise to northern hemisphere temperature rise city2 = location 2. The sea level rise from location 1 and location 2 are plotted, and a correlation is determined.The PSMSL.org data is used because, at some sites, sea level data is available for more than 80 years. The data utilized in this program is sourced from PSMSL.org, a reputable organization known for providing comprehensive and reliable sea level data. PSMSL.org is recognize at numerous coastal sites worldwide. The organization's commitment to data integrity and accuracy makes it a trusted source for scientific research and policy-making.
Wilmington is among the sites monitored by PSMSL.org, with sea level data available since 1935. Remarkably, only 17 data points are missing from this extensive dataset, ensuring a robust analysis of sea level trends in the region. The reference point established in 1970, set at -7000 mm, serves as a valuable baseline for understanding mean sea level variations over time. Missing data points, denoted by -9999, have been systematically cleaned to maintain the integrity of the analysis.
The full project can be accessed here: https://github.com/GuyInFreezer/project-1/tree/main
Team Members: Jay Requarth, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin, Matt Nicholas and Jana Avery
Lake Ontario Unleashed: An Analysis of a February 2007 Lake Effect Eventmlanza
Detailed discussion of the February 2-12, 2007 massive lake effect event off the east end of Lake Ontario, featuring details, analysis, photos and more.
ICLR Forecast Webex: 2015 wildfire Season (June 8, 2015)glennmcgillivray
On June 8, 2015, ICLR conducted a Forecast Webinar on the 2015 wildfire and hurricane seasons. Kerry Anderson, Fire Sciences Officer with the Canadian Forest Service, presented his forecast for the 2015 wildfire season.
Extreme weather is becoming more common in our region. Flood events can impact human health and safety, and result in substantial costs to property and infrastructure. Geared toward municipal decision makers and concerned citizens, this forum provides on-the-ground examples of flood resilience strategies that can help Hudson Valley communities minimize risks while conserving financial resources.
Presentation by Climatologist for the Northeast Regional Climate Center Jessica Rennells for a flood management forum hosted by the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, NY on May 4, 2013.
How climate data can help address the climate challengeEsri UK
Climate change has already altered the weather we experience and the magnitude of impacts from extreme temperatures and rainfall. These impacts manifest locally and can cause human causalities and damage to infrastructure and natural systems. In future, some further climate change is now inevitable, but the rate and magnitude of change will depend on global greenhouse gas emissions. New data and tools to use the data are available to help plot a path through the climate and weather challenges, enabling organisations at all scales to adapt to the changing conditions.
New business opportunities with zero carbon thinking and how California suburban lifestyle may be the answer to global warming and the need to adapt to a warmer climate through IT - the Energy Internet
ICLR Friday Forum: Earthquake Early Warning (April 22, 2022)glennmcgillivray
On April 22, 2022, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar title 'Earthquake Early Warning", led by Henry Seywerd, Program Manager for the Earthquake Early Warning at Natural Resources Canada.
Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) provides the ability to give warnings seconds to tens of seconds prior to the arrival of strong shaking from a major earthquake allowing the initiation of protective actions. EEW is available in many earthquake-prone countries around the world including Japan, Turkey, Mexico, and the United States. Natural Resources Canada is developing a national earthquake early warning system for Canada to cover the west coast of BC, the corridor from Ottawa to Quebec City, and other areas in Canada. The system will involve the installation of 400-600 new sensor stations, fast communication links, and new data centres for the creation of alert messages. The Canadian EEW system will be closely integrated with that operated by the US Geological Survey and use the same software packages; this will ensure consistent cross border alerts, which is particularly important in SW British Columbia. Alert messages will be distributed to the Canadian public via the National Public Alerting System. In addition, customized alerts will be available for the use of critical infrastructure operators and others to allow them to implement automated protective actions for facilities and equipment. The system is currently under development and expected to be producing alerts in 2024.
Henry Seywerd, Program Manager for the Earthquake Early Warning at Natural Resources Canada, is heading a project to establish a national system for providing rapid warnings to mitigate the effects major earthquakes. He has been involved in emergency management at NRCan for over ten years including managing the refurbishment of the Canada’s seismic monitoring network, and leading its nuclear emergency response team. Prior to joining NRCan Henry has held diverse positions in industry and research including the development of equipment for medical imaging and performing fundamental research in high energy physics.
ICLR Friday Forum: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (March 11, 2022)glennmcgillivray
On March 11, 2022, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum Webinar titled 'What are some key findings relevant to the Canadian context from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report – Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adoption and Vulnerability?" led by Linda Mortsch.
IPCC Assessment Reports are considered the gold standard for information on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In February 2022, the second of four reports in the sixth assessment cycle - Working Group II’s Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - was released. It represents the culmination of an exacting process where experts review and assess climate change information in order to provide a synthesis for decision-making that is policy-relevant but not policy prescriptive. This presentation addresses three topics. It begins by describing the unique IPCC assessment process. Next, it highlights key, overarching findings from the report’s Summary for Policy Makers (SPM), which has received governments’ approval. Lastly, it focuses on the North America Chapter providing details relevant to the Canadian context on a wide range of topics such as water resources, forest fires, cities, and economic sectors.
Linda Mortsch has devoted much of her career to addressing climate change issues and facilitating adaptation planning and decision-making in water resources, coastal zones, wetland ecosystems and urban areas. She has expertise collaborating with stakeholders to assess impacts, vulnerability, and resilience, and initiate adaptation. Her 1992 research project “Adapting to climate variability and change in the Great Lakes Basin” was one of the first to engage stakeholders and explore adaptation to climate change in Canada. Since 1989, Linda has played a role in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. For the sixth assessment cycle, she was the Convening Lead Author for the North America chapter. Now retired from Environment and Climate Change Canada, Linda has an adjunct appointment in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Waterloo. She continues to undertake studies that support adaptation capacity building and help meet the challenges of moving from adaptation planning to implementation and from incremental to transformative changes. Linda received the 2009 University of Waterloo, Faculty of Environment, Alumni Achievement Award in recognition of professional achievement and distinguished environmental and community leadership.
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Lake Ontario Unleashed: An Analysis of a February 2007 Lake Effect Eventmlanza
Detailed discussion of the February 2-12, 2007 massive lake effect event off the east end of Lake Ontario, featuring details, analysis, photos and more.
ICLR Forecast Webex: 2015 wildfire Season (June 8, 2015)glennmcgillivray
On June 8, 2015, ICLR conducted a Forecast Webinar on the 2015 wildfire and hurricane seasons. Kerry Anderson, Fire Sciences Officer with the Canadian Forest Service, presented his forecast for the 2015 wildfire season.
Extreme weather is becoming more common in our region. Flood events can impact human health and safety, and result in substantial costs to property and infrastructure. Geared toward municipal decision makers and concerned citizens, this forum provides on-the-ground examples of flood resilience strategies that can help Hudson Valley communities minimize risks while conserving financial resources.
Presentation by Climatologist for the Northeast Regional Climate Center Jessica Rennells for a flood management forum hosted by the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, NY on May 4, 2013.
How climate data can help address the climate challengeEsri UK
Climate change has already altered the weather we experience and the magnitude of impacts from extreme temperatures and rainfall. These impacts manifest locally and can cause human causalities and damage to infrastructure and natural systems. In future, some further climate change is now inevitable, but the rate and magnitude of change will depend on global greenhouse gas emissions. New data and tools to use the data are available to help plot a path through the climate and weather challenges, enabling organisations at all scales to adapt to the changing conditions.
New business opportunities with zero carbon thinking and how California suburban lifestyle may be the answer to global warming and the need to adapt to a warmer climate through IT - the Energy Internet
ICLR Friday Forum: Earthquake Early Warning (April 22, 2022)glennmcgillivray
On April 22, 2022, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar title 'Earthquake Early Warning", led by Henry Seywerd, Program Manager for the Earthquake Early Warning at Natural Resources Canada.
Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) provides the ability to give warnings seconds to tens of seconds prior to the arrival of strong shaking from a major earthquake allowing the initiation of protective actions. EEW is available in many earthquake-prone countries around the world including Japan, Turkey, Mexico, and the United States. Natural Resources Canada is developing a national earthquake early warning system for Canada to cover the west coast of BC, the corridor from Ottawa to Quebec City, and other areas in Canada. The system will involve the installation of 400-600 new sensor stations, fast communication links, and new data centres for the creation of alert messages. The Canadian EEW system will be closely integrated with that operated by the US Geological Survey and use the same software packages; this will ensure consistent cross border alerts, which is particularly important in SW British Columbia. Alert messages will be distributed to the Canadian public via the National Public Alerting System. In addition, customized alerts will be available for the use of critical infrastructure operators and others to allow them to implement automated protective actions for facilities and equipment. The system is currently under development and expected to be producing alerts in 2024.
Henry Seywerd, Program Manager for the Earthquake Early Warning at Natural Resources Canada, is heading a project to establish a national system for providing rapid warnings to mitigate the effects major earthquakes. He has been involved in emergency management at NRCan for over ten years including managing the refurbishment of the Canada’s seismic monitoring network, and leading its nuclear emergency response team. Prior to joining NRCan Henry has held diverse positions in industry and research including the development of equipment for medical imaging and performing fundamental research in high energy physics.
ICLR Friday Forum: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (March 11, 2022)glennmcgillivray
On March 11, 2022, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum Webinar titled 'What are some key findings relevant to the Canadian context from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report – Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adoption and Vulnerability?" led by Linda Mortsch.
IPCC Assessment Reports are considered the gold standard for information on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In February 2022, the second of four reports in the sixth assessment cycle - Working Group II’s Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - was released. It represents the culmination of an exacting process where experts review and assess climate change information in order to provide a synthesis for decision-making that is policy-relevant but not policy prescriptive. This presentation addresses three topics. It begins by describing the unique IPCC assessment process. Next, it highlights key, overarching findings from the report’s Summary for Policy Makers (SPM), which has received governments’ approval. Lastly, it focuses on the North America Chapter providing details relevant to the Canadian context on a wide range of topics such as water resources, forest fires, cities, and economic sectors.
Linda Mortsch has devoted much of her career to addressing climate change issues and facilitating adaptation planning and decision-making in water resources, coastal zones, wetland ecosystems and urban areas. She has expertise collaborating with stakeholders to assess impacts, vulnerability, and resilience, and initiate adaptation. Her 1992 research project “Adapting to climate variability and change in the Great Lakes Basin” was one of the first to engage stakeholders and explore adaptation to climate change in Canada. Since 1989, Linda has played a role in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. For the sixth assessment cycle, she was the Convening Lead Author for the North America chapter. Now retired from Environment and Climate Change Canada, Linda has an adjunct appointment in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Waterloo. She continues to undertake studies that support adaptation capacity building and help meet the challenges of moving from adaptation planning to implementation and from incremental to transformative changes. Linda received the 2009 University of Waterloo, Faculty of Environment, Alumni Achievement Award in recognition of professional achievement and distinguished environmental and community leadership.
ICLR Friday Forum: Functional Recovery for Lifeline Infrastructure Systems (F...glennmcgillivray
On February 25, 2022 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Functional Recovery for Lifeline Infrastructure Systems', led by Craig A. Davis, Ph.D., P.E., G.E. of C A Davis Engineering.
Engineers design buildings and lifelines mostly to protect life safety, with few provisions to safeguard post-disaster functionality and recovery. Codes evolve, so older infrastructure tends to be less safe than new. As a result, natural disasters can damage utilities and transportation infrastructure (commonly called lifelines), kill and injure users, displace residents, close businesses, and cause other economic and socio-cultural harm. We cannot completely eliminate these risks, but we can improve community resilience by designing and retrofitting our lifelines with codes, standards, and policies that focus on post-disaster recovery. Engineers speak of these developing requirements and policies as “functional recovery,” meaning that we hope to design or modify lifelines to better ensure fast restoration of at least there basic functionality, even before all repairs are completed. Functional recovery requires acknowledging and accounting for the way lifelines interact—water service can rely on electricity and vice versa—so a functional recovery framework must ensure common degrees of reliability between interacting lifelines. In the United States, an effort is underway to develop recovery-based goals and functional-recovery design and retrofit guidelines and standards. The US Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Institute of Standards and Technology are leading the development of recovery-based objectives for earthquake design, with consideration for future applications to other natural hazards.
Dr. Davis is a professional consultant on geotechnical, earthquake, and lifeline infrastructure system resilience engineering. He currently leads the development of functional recovery and operability concepts for lifeline infrastructure systems. Before opening a consulting firm, he led efforts to improve disaster resilience at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. He has written over 180 technical publications and has investigated numerous earthquakes.
ICLR Friday Forum: Risk as analysis and risk as emotion (Jan 21, 2022)glennmcgillivray
On Friday, January 21, 2022 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Risk as analysis and risk as emotion', with Dr. Lucy Jones, founder and Chief Scientist of the Dr. Lucy Jones Center for Science and Society.
Long before engineers existed, human beings evolved the concept of risk and appropriate responses to it. Psychologists have shown that we have parallel processing systems for risk, the analytical and the affective. The analytical is logical and slow, bringing reason and scientific deliberation to hazard management. The affective is our fast, instinctive and intuitive reactions to danger. Our survival has often depended on the affective system and thus we are wired to only act when our emotions are involved. Because unseen risks are more frightening, we take more precautions against nuclear accidents and earthquakes than other risks that are far more likely to kill us, such as car accidents. This talk will explore the various emotions that govern our response to risk and how this information can be used to encourage mitigation.
Dr. Lucy Jones is the founder and Chief Scientist of the Dr. Lucy Jones Center for Science and Society, with a mission to foster the understanding and application of scientific information in the creation of more resilient communities, and a Research Associate at the Seismological Laboratory of Caltech. With a Bachelor of Arts in Chinese Language and Literature from Brown University and a Ph.D. in Geophysics from MIT, Dr. Jones has been active in earthquake research for decades, furthering earthquake risk reduction, including 33 years of federal service with the US Geological Survey. Her work at the USGS included developing the methodology for estimating the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock to a bigger event, leading the creation of a national science strategy for natural hazards research, creating the first American major earthquake drill, the Great ShakeOut, that has expanded to now encompass over 60 million participants around the world in 2019 and writing over 100 published papers on statistical seismology and integrated disaster scenarios.
ICLR Friday Forum: Development, Responsibility + Creation of Flood Risk in Ca...glennmcgillivray
On December 10, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Development, Responsibility, and the Creation of Flood Risk in Calgary, Alberta', led by Dr. Tim Haney, Mount Royal University.
Why do developers continue to build homes near rivers? Should municipal governments allow it? Should real estate agents be required to disclose a home's location in a floodplain? These are some of the questions we will explore in this talk. Based on interviews with Calgarians affected by the 2013 Southern Alberta Flood, Dr. Tim Haney's research looks at how they view the construction of new housing near Calgary's rivers, how they attribute responsibility for these new forms of risk, how they view developers and municipal government, and what they believe should be done to protect residents from flooding. The talk was based upon Dr. Haney's new article "Development, Responsibility, and the Creation of Urban Hazard Risk," and uses theory from urban political economy to understand and frame the ongoing creation of risk in Calgary.
Timothy J. Haney is Professor of Sociology at Mount Royal University in Calgary, and holds the inaugural Board of Governors Research Chair in Resilience & Sustainability. From 2014 to 2919 he served as the founding Director of the Centre for Community Disaster Research at MRU. He's a sociologist of disaster, environment, cities, and science, and holds a Ph.D. from the University of Oregon. His research covers topics such as risk perception, social inequalities in disaster recovery, climate change beliefs, post-disaster environmental views, and urban politics. His research has been published in journals such as the Journal of Urban Affairs, Environmental Sociology, Disasters, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, and The Sociological Quarterly. Dr. Haney lived in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina, and takes classes of MRU students to New Orleans to learn about disaster recovery while serving the community.
ICLR Friday Forum: Quantifying Risks for Canadian Homeowners Using Quake Cat ...glennmcgillivray
On November 19, 2021, the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction held a webinar title 'Quantifying Financial Risks for Canadian Homeowners Using Earthquake Catastrophe Models", led by Katsuichiro Goda, PhD, Associate Professor and Canada Research Chair in Multi-hazard Risk Assessment, Faulty of Science, Western University.
Earthquake insurance plays a pivotal role in the recovery from earthquake disasters and protects people from financial risks that damaging earthquakes pose. Currently there are significant earthquake insurance gaps between West (British Columbia) and East (Quebec). This presentation will discuss the quantification of financial insurance risks for Canadian homeowners. Possible causes of the earthquake insurance gap problems, such as risk perception and affordability, are investigated using the state-of-the-art earthquake catastrophe models and consumer survey results.
Dr Katsuichiro Goda is an Associate Professor and a Canada Research Chair in Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at the University of Western Ontario, Canada. His research is focused on catastrophic earthquake-related multi-hazard risk management from economic and societal viewpoints. He has received international recognition on his high-quality research through various awards and grants, including a prestigious 2012 Charles F. Richter Early Career Award given by the Seismological Society of America and a Humboldt Research Fellowship Award for experienced researchers by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. He received the 2017 IASSAR Early Achievement Research Award given by the International Association for Structural Safety and Reliability.
ICLR Friday Forum: How Media Reports on Disaster Events (October 15, 2021)glennmcgillivray
On October 15, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Disaster Coverage: How Media Reports on Disaster Events', led by Kevin Quigley, PhD, Scholarly Director, Professor, School of Public Administration, Dalhousie University.
Media narratives play an important role in how we understand disaster events and how we hold public officials to account for their response. While media coverage of high impact-low probability events seems dramatic, in fact, it’s quite nuanced. Different types of events generate different types of coverage. Pandemics generate high volume and alarming media coverage. So, too, do terrorist attacks and industrial failures. In contrast, terrorist plots and natural disasters generate medium- to high-volume coverage that is mildly negative and at times positive towards officials. Media cover cybersecurity very little. This presentation will review the patterns and reflect on their consequences.
Kevin Quigley is a public administration scholar who specializes in risk governance and critical infrastructure, focusing in particular on public sector responses to rare and high impact events, such as pandemics, natural disasters, industrial failures and cyber and terrorist attacks. Dr. Quigley has published two critically acclaimed books on critical infrastructure, including his most recent, 'Too Critical to Fail: How Canada Manages Threats to Critical Infrastructure' (co-authored with Bisset and Mills) which was shortlisted for the 2018 Donner Prize, awarded for the best public policy book by a Canadian.
On September 24, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'An evidence-based approach for Coastal Flood Risk Assessments', led by Nicky Hastings, Project Lead for the National Scale Geohazard Risk project within the Public Safety Geoscience Program at Natural Resources Canada
Canada has the longest coastline globally, approximately 243,000 kilometres of diverse geographies and geomorphologies, including fiords, arctic tundra, river delta's, bluffs and sandy or rocky beaches. The impacts of coastal flooding, tsunamis and related hazards vary across these landscapes. Approximately 6,570,000 people live in communities along Canada's coast. Many of them depend on the ocean to make their living in fisheries, shipping or other related industries. Our work applies science and technology (S&T) to advance operational capabilities, assess and model coastal hazards and risks at various scales across Canada. These assessments can better inform decisions that will reduce current and future risks and help communities adapt to a changing climate to become more resilient to these hazards. This presentation provides insights into a three-year collaborative project that brings together researchers and practitioners to work, share, demonstrate, provide guidance and integrate coastal flood models across Canada. These models are used to inform risk reduction decisions build resilience, support return on investment evaluations and buy-in for disaster risk reduction.
Nicky Hastings is the Project Lead for the National Scale Geohazard Risk project within the Public Safety Geoscience Program at Natural Resources Canada. Over the last 14 years, she has worked with a team to develop and adapt risk assessment methods to assess Canada's earthquake and flood risks. Nicky works closely with internal and external partners to better understand how scientific knowledge can inform decision making. Several initiatives are underway in the risk project, including a new five-year project under the Emergency Management Strategy that operationalizes evidence based methods to evaluate and prioritize earthquake risk reduction measures and other natural hazards.
ICLR Friday Forum: Part 1 - Canada’s National Guide for WUI Fires (August 20,...glennmcgillivray
On Friday, August 20, 2021, ICLR hosted a two-part webinar titled "The National Guide for Wildland Urban Interface Fires (Part 1), and an Impact Analysis of the National WUI Guide (Part 2).' Part one was led by Dr. Noureddine Bénichou, a Principal Research Officer at the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada.
Part 1: Canada’s National Guide for Wildland-Urban Interface Fires
A National Guide for Wildland-Urban Interface Fires, the first of its kind for Canada, was recently published by the National Research Council of Canada as part of the Climate-Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure (CRBCPI) initiative. The Guide is intended to mitigate the growing risk of damage and loss due to WUI fires by improving the resilience of buildings and communities to wildfire. Drawing on recent wildfire research, existing codes, standards and guidelines, and new insights from international experts, the Guide provides comprehensive support for the WUI areas of Canada, including information on hazard and exposure assessment, vegetation management and construction measures, and community planning, resources and outreach.
ICLR Friday Forum: Part 2 - National WUI Guide Impact Analysis (August 20, 2021)glennmcgillivray
On Friday, August 20, 2021, ICLR hosted a two-part webinar titled "The National Guide for Wildland Urban Interface Fires (Part 1), and an Impact Analysis of the National WUI Guide (Part 2).' Part two was led by Dr. Keith Porter, co-principal of SPA Risk LLC, an applied-research firm specializing in multihazard disaster risk to buildings and lifelines.
Part 2: National WUI Guide Impact Analysis
With NRC support, ICLR collaborated with SPA Risk LLC and several stakeholders to examine the impacts of following NRC’s WUI Fire Guide. Following the Guide for new construction can produce benefits that exceed the approximately $5/square-foot costs by 32:1, and more when one can rely on vegetation management. Retrofitting existing buildings, with somewhat higher costs, can save up to 14:1 in high-hazard locations. Application of the WUI Guide across Canada would add $125 billion to construction and retrofit costs over 10 years but avoid $500 billion in future losses, create 20,000 jobs, save 2,300 lives, avoid 17,000 nonfatal injuries, and protect $1 billion in tax revenues. The impact analysis suggests that the guide makes good financial sense for Canada.
ICLR special webinar: Observations from the 07/15/2021 Barrie Tornado (July 2...glennmcgillivray
On July 28, 2021 ICLR conducted a special webinar titled 'Observations from the July 15, 2021 Barrie Tornado' led by Greg Kopp of Western University Engineering, ImpactWX Chair in Severe Storms Engineering, and Project Leader of the Northern Tornadoes Project.
In this session, Dr. Greg Kopp reviewed findings he and his team documented while conducting an investigation of the aftermath of the July 15 tornado in Barrie, Ontario. The EF2-rated storm damaged approximately 150 homes, with 71 deemed by the City as “too dangerous to enter.” Dr. Kopp and his team arrived in Barrie within hours of the storm.
Dr. Greg Kopp is the ImpactWX Chair in Severe Storms Engineering and a professor in Western University’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. He received a B.Sc.M.E. from the University of Manitoba in 1989, a M.Eng. from McMaster University in 1991 and a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Toronto in 1995. His expertise and research relate to mitigating damage to structures during extreme wind storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes. He works actively to implement research findings into practice, currently serving as Chair of the ASCE 49 Standards Committee on Wind Tunnel Testing For Buildings and other Structures, and as a member of various other Building Code committees. A former Canada Research Chair in Wind Engineering, he is also the lead researcher for the Three Little Pigs Project at The Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes.
On July 16, 2021 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Edmonton's approach to stormwater flood management', led by Susan Ancel, Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. EPCOR has developed a $1.6 billion Stormwater Integrated Resource Plan (SIRP) to mitigate the impacts of flooding in the community. SIRP envisions all stakeholders – citizens, businesses, industry, the City of Edmonton and EPCOR working together to build a flood-resilient future. The goal is to Slow, Move, Secure, Predict and Respond to flooding events to prevent or reduce the impact. EPCOR’s planned flood mitigations projects will take 20 years to complete. The types of projects that are included in SIRP include dry ponds, low impact development, tunnels, combined sewer separation, outfall control gates, inflow/infiltration reduction, building flood proofing, increased sensors and automatic controls and emergency response equipment. The plan was developed through consultation with Climate Change Adaptation, Insurance and Financial sector groups across North America.
Susan Ancel is the Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. In her prior role, she was Director of Stormwater Strategies, where she was responsible for developing an Integrated Resource Plan for flood mitigation that considered capital and operational risk mitigation planning, as well as the interrelationships between utilities, insurance, disaster response agencies and the public. Prior to her Stormwater Strategies role she was the Director of Water Distribution and Transmission for EPCOR. Susan is a Mechanical engineer with over 30 years’ experience with the municipal utility sector. She has also served on numerous industry committees including the Board of Directors for the Geospatial Information Technology Association (GITA) from 2001 to 2007 and was President of GITA in 2006. She currently serves on the Board of Directors for Canadian Water Network.
ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...glennmcgillivray
ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar on June 18, 2021 titled 'Floodplain mapping over Canada: Investigating performance at inundation level and understanding dynamics of population flood exposure', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic, Director of Engineering Studies, ICLR/Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University.
Surface runoff estimates from atmospheric re-analysis datasets are increasingly preferred by hydrologists for modelling floods in regions where traditional observations are not sufficiently available. This presentation explores the fidelity of four widely used re-analyses runoff products as hydraulic forcings to a flood inundation model in describing inundation dynamics over Canada. The re-analysis obtained runoff is used with the Catchment-based Macroscale Floodplain (CaMa-Flood) global hydrodynamic model, to derive high-resolution floodplain maps for 100 and 200-yr return periods. The floodplain maps derived from each reanalysis dataset are compared with the regional developed or ‘benchmark floodplain maps’ over six selected flood-prone basins (test basins) in Canada through a set of performance statistics. Using the superior reanalysis runoff dataset, a few historic flood events over the test basins are simulated and subsequently compared with MODIS satellite-derived floodplain information. We notice that more than 75% of the inundation is precisely captured for these events.
The second part of the presentation will focus on the use of four global population datasets (together with census data from Statistics Canada as the reference), their performances and skill in flood exposure assessment across Canada. The flood exposure is quantified based on a set of floodplain maps for Canada derived from the CaMa-Flood global flood model. To obtain further insights at the regional level, the methodology is implemented over six flood-prone River Basins in Canada. We find that about 9% (3.31 million) and 11% (3.90 million) of the Canadian population resides within 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr floodplains.
This work (i) strongly supports the need for careful selection of a re-analysis dataset while performing inundation modelling for large regions: and (ii) also highlights the need for careful selection of population datasets for preventing further amplification of uncertainties in flood risk. The results derived from this study may be useful for flood risk management and contribute to understanding other disaster impacts on human-environment interrelationships.
On May 21, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Climate Disclosure, Litigation and Finance'"Climate Disclosure, Litigation and Finance' is a forthcoming chapter in 'Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues'. In this webinar, chapter authors Paul Kovacs, Gordon McBean, Gordon Beal, Maryam Golnaraghi, Pat Koval and Bohan Li examined the evolving climate risks for businesses and governments.
Climate change is now widely regarded as an environmental and an economic issue. While the policy discussion about climate change emphasizes the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to better cope with the impact of extreme events, the business community is increasingly focused on the physical and transition risks and opportunities presented by climate change. The research team will discuss how managing the risks and opportunities associated with climate change affect a company’s ability to access capital, deliver products and services, hire and retain employees and achieve positive financial performance.
Paul Kovacs is the Executive Director of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction.
Professor Emeritus Gordon McBean is with the ICLR and Department of Geography and Environment, Western University and the past President of the International Council for Science and former ADM of the atmospheric component of Environment Canada.
Gordon Beal, CPA, CA, M.Ed., is the Vice President of Research Guidance and Support for Chartered Professional Accountants Canada and a member of Canada’s National Climate Change Adaptation Platform Plenary.
Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi is the Director of Climate Change and Environment at The Geneva Association, a platform of Group CEOs of largest insurance companies, a non-resident senior fellow at The Atlantic Council and serves on a number of boards and advisory councils in the US, Canada and the UK.
Patricia Koval, JD, is a Board Director of a number of companies in the United States and Canada, a former partner of a major Canadian law firm, and a member of the Ontario Advisory Panel on Climate Change.
Dr. Bohan Li is a research associate at the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction.
ICLR Friday Forum: Driving resilience forward with research (April 16, 2021)glennmcgillivray
On April 16, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Narrow the Path of Damage: Driving resilience forward with research', led by Anne Cope, PhD, Chief Engineer at the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety.
Severe weather disrupts lives, displaces families and drives financial loss. Anne Cope, PhD, Chief Engineer at IBHS, discussed the Institute’s latest research investigating wind, wind-driven rain, hail, and wildfire. From how wildfires burn to how hail damages a roof, top-tier science delivers actionable insights for the insurance industry and homeowners. Anne will demonstrate how IBHS is working to motivate resilience through research to drive down losses and support thriving communities.
Anne D. Cope, PhD, P.E., Chief Engineer: Dr. Anne Cope joined IBHS in 2009 just a few months before the groundbreaking for the construction of the IBHS Research Center in Richburg, South Carolina. As the Chief Engineer, she leads the development of research programs to improve the performance of structures in hurricanes, wildfires, severe thunderstorms, and hailstorms as well as the team of engineers, scientists, and skilled craftsman who conduct research on full-scale homes and commercial buildings. She is responsible for the team’s implementation of research findings into building codes and standards.
Prior to joining IBHS, Dr. Cope was a project manager and structural engineer with Reynolds, Smith & Hills, Inc., designing projects for NASA, Department of Defense, and commercial launch operations. Dr. Cope’s research encompasses topics ranging from the full-scale simulation of wind effects on buildings to detailed studies of the vulnerabilities of buildings to natural hazards and the development of damage prediction models. She is also a proud veteran of the United States Army. She earned her bachelor’s and master’s degrees in civil engineering from Clemson University, and her doctorate from the University of Florida. She is a registered professional engineer in Florida and South Carolina.
On Friday, March 19, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Solutions for Tantramar marshes flooding', led by Dr. Jeff 0llerhead, Professor, Geography and Environment Department, Mount Allison University.
Most former salt marshes in the Tantramar region of Atlantic Canada are now protected by dykes and are used primarily for agriculture. This has been true for decades to centuries and, as such, their elevation can be as much as 2 m below that of undyked salt marshes in the region. The key environmental drivers shaping the marshes are changing over time with climate change. The rate of relative sea level (RSL) rise is accelerating and there is some evidence that storms are becoming more frequent and sea ice is diminishing. The risk of a catastrophic dyke failure and associated flooding increases each year. Risk from inland flooding is also increasing.
Possible solutions include a combination of: (i) raise and reenforce the dyke system, (ii) realign existing dykes and restore salt marshes to provide natural protection, and (iii) remove existing dykes and allow the system to return to a natural state. The highest priority for managing our salt marshes should be to provide them with sufficient accommodation space into which they can transgress naturally.
Jeff 0llerhead is a member of the Geography and Environment Department at Mount Allison University in Sackville, NB. He is a coastal geomorphologist who studies beaches and salt marshes. In recent years, he has been particularly involved in designing and monitoring salt marsh restorations in the upper Bay of Fundy.
ICLR Friday Forum: Canmore: Working toward a FireSmart community (Feb 26, 2021)glennmcgillivray
On February 26, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar title 'Town of Canmore: Working Towards a FireSmart Community, led by Kerri Martens, Deputy Chief of Canmore Fire Rescue and Stew Wilkenshaw, owner/operator of Montane Forest Management.
The Town of Canmore is located in southwestern Alberta between Calgary and Banff. The Bow Valley had a rich wildfire history and has evolved from centuries of wildfire. Wildfire exclusion for the past 80+ years and development in the Town of Canmore has resulted in a wildland/urban interface fire threat that requires attention.
Stew Walkinshaw and Keri Martens discussed the wildland/urban interface threat within and surrounding the Bow Valley and the steps that have been taken over the past 20+ years to reduce the threat.
Keri Martens
Keri Martens, MA, is the Deputy Fire Chief of Canmore Fire Rescue. She has been involved in the fire service for over 20 years, originally starting her career as a paid responder and then taking on the position of Fire Chief for the Lake Louise Fire Department in Alberta. Keri took on the role of Deputy Chief with Canmore Fire Rescue in 2018 where her responsibilities include overseeing the Town’s FireSmart program including the implementation of the Home Assessment program along with yearly FireSmart Forums for community residents.
Chief Martens sits on the Board of Directors of the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs and chairs the CAFC’s Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Committee. She holds a Masters degree in Disaster and Emergency Management and is a member of Canada Task Force 2. Keri is married with 2 children and enjoys all the recreational perks of living in the Canadian Rocky Mountains.
Stew Walkinshaw
Stew Wilkenshaw is owner/operator of Montane Forest Management, based out of Canmore, and provides FireSmart specialist services to the Town of Canmore. He has specialized in FireSmart community planning and wildland/urban interface fire operations in western Canada since 1993.
ICLR Friday Forum: What's that sound?: Residents' reaction during a tsunami e...glennmcgillivray
On January 15, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'What's that sound?: How Residents Responded During a Tsunami Evacuation on Vancouver Island and How Similar Evacuations Might be Improved", led by Ryan P. Reynolds, MGIS, PhD, Post Doctoral Research Fellow, School of Community and Regional Planning, University of B.C.
It’s 3am on an early Tuesday morning, and you wake to the sound of a warning siren. You realize it’s your community’s tsunami warning system, and listen as it broadcasts instructions to evacuate the tsunami inundation zone and seek shelter on higher ground. You aren’t sure if you live in the inundation zone or not. What do you do? Dr. Reynolds conducted parallel door-to-door and online surveys to better understand how Port Alberni residents responded to this exact scenario on an early January morning in 2018. He wanted to learn how and when residents learned about the tsunami warning, what actions they took to respond, and where evacuees sought safety. We also wanted to explore residents’ views on how the evacuation was conducted by emergency officials and how the event may have changed their perceptions of tsunami risk in the community. In this webinar, findings were discussed from over 450 public surveys and interviews with 11 community and regional emergency officials in the Alberni Valley and highlight some best practices to improve future evacuations.
ICLR Friday Forum: Safety + serviceability of mass timber buildings for wind ...glennmcgillivray
On December 11, 2020 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Ensuring safety and serviceability of tall mass timber buildings for wind', led by Dr. Girma Bitsuamlak of Western University.
The past two decades have seen the continuing global recognition of tall-wood buildings as a sustainable alternative to address urban densification and sprawl issues. Recent design strategies are using wood as the primary construction material for tall buildings. Alan Davenport’s wind-load-chain indicates that the wind response of structures is governed by their aerodynamic features (shape), wind speed and direction (micro-climate), and dynamic properties (weight, stiffness, and damping). The use of wood panels to construct the lateral and gravity systems of the tall-wood building makes them lightweight and less stiff than buildings made from conventional construction materials. Frequent exposure to wind-induced oscillations can cause discomfort to occupants and deflection related serviceability problems.
A coordinated wind research program was launched in January 2016 between FPInnovations, The University of British Columbia, and Western University. The research program includes aerodynamic and aeroelastic investigations of dozens of tall-wood building case studies in the boundary layer wind tunnel laboratory. It also includes a tornadic wind load study at the WindEEE dome. This talk summarized the main findings of the research program. For all case studies, safety and serviceability criteria were satisfied. However, for heights exceeding ninety meters, either aerodynamic optimization, or supplemental damping, or “wind bracing” through different hybridization techniques is required to satisfy the serviceability criteria of the 2015 National Building Code of Canada.
Girma T. Bitsuamlak, PhD, PEng, F CSCE
Professor and Canada Research Chair in Wind Engineering at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Research Director at Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Lab. (BLWTL) and WindEEE Research Institute, Site leader at SHARCNET, Western University.
ICLR Friday Forum: Reducing the risk of fire following earthquake in B.C. (No...glennmcgillivray
On November 13, 2020, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Reducing the risk of fire following earthquake in the Lower Mainland, B.C.' led by Dr. Charles Scawthorn.
The Lower Mainland of British Columbia has significant risk due to earthquakes and the fires that follow them. Modeling was performed that accounted for fire department response, water system damage, weather and other conditions and the growth and ultimate final burnt area of fires. The resulting losses are estimated to be from nil to about C$10 billion. These are median estimates – there are significant probabilities of greater or less damage and the range is a function of the specific earthquake scenario (i.e., location and magnitude), time of day, weather and other factors. This loss would be almost entirely insured and would have a very significant impact on the Canadian insurance industry. Fire losses would come on top of shaking and other losses which would be insured to a lesser extent. A leading global reinsurer has stated that losses of this magnitude would likely result in failure of some insurers, would entail secondary and contingent losses, and could conceivably lead to financial contagion.
This risk need not be tolerated and indeed the Province of British Columbia, City of Vancouver, and regional agencies such as Metro Vancouver and BC Hydro have implemented excellent programs to reduce this risk. Further actions however can still be taken to reduce the risk of fire damage and include creation of a regional portable water supply system, providing secondary water supplies for high-rise buildings, and improvements in the region’s energy infrastructure. In this respect two actions have been de rigueur in other regions, and should be considered in the Lower Mainland: (a) a review of the overall seismic vulnerability and reliability of major energy facilities; (b) review of the gas distribution operator’s ability to control and isolate its transmission and distribution networks in the event of a major earthquake, and consideration by the operator of incorporating an automatic gas shutoff device in gas meters.
This webinar presented the modeling and results, and discussed opportunities for mitigation.
Charles Scawthorn (cscawthorn@sparisk.com ) is Principal of SPA Risk LLC and is internationally recognized as an authority for the analysis and mitigation of natural and technological hazards. He retired in 2008 as Professor and head of the Earthquake Disaster Prevention Systems Laboratory, Kyoto University (Japan), has been Visiting Professor at Stanford, Beijing Normal and Waseda (Tokyo) Universities and is now Visiting Researcher, Univ. California at Berkeley. He consults with the global insurance industry, the World Bank, local/state/federal agencies and Global 1000 corporations.
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docxvaibhavrinwa19
Acetabularia acetabulum is a single-celled green alga that in its vegetative state is morphologically differentiated into a basal rhizoid and an axially elongated stalk, which bears whorls of branching hairs. The single diploid nucleus resides in the rhizoid.
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfkaushalkr1407
The Roman Empire, a vast and enduring power, stands as one of history's most remarkable civilizations, leaving an indelible imprint on the world. It emerged from the Roman Republic, transitioning into an imperial powerhouse under the leadership of Augustus Caesar in 27 BCE. This transformation marked the beginning of an era defined by unprecedented territorial expansion, architectural marvels, and profound cultural influence.
The empire's roots lie in the city of Rome, founded, according to legend, by Romulus in 753 BCE. Over centuries, Rome evolved from a small settlement to a formidable republic, characterized by a complex political system with elected officials and checks on power. However, internal strife, class conflicts, and military ambitions paved the way for the end of the Republic. Julius Caesar’s dictatorship and subsequent assassination in 44 BCE created a power vacuum, leading to a civil war. Octavian, later Augustus, emerged victorious, heralding the Roman Empire’s birth.
Under Augustus, the empire experienced the Pax Romana, a 200-year period of relative peace and stability. Augustus reformed the military, established efficient administrative systems, and initiated grand construction projects. The empire's borders expanded, encompassing territories from Britain to Egypt and from Spain to the Euphrates. Roman legions, renowned for their discipline and engineering prowess, secured and maintained these vast territories, building roads, fortifications, and cities that facilitated control and integration.
The Roman Empire’s society was hierarchical, with a rigid class system. At the top were the patricians, wealthy elites who held significant political power. Below them were the plebeians, free citizens with limited political influence, and the vast numbers of slaves who formed the backbone of the economy. The family unit was central, governed by the paterfamilias, the male head who held absolute authority.
Culturally, the Romans were eclectic, absorbing and adapting elements from the civilizations they encountered, particularly the Greeks. Roman art, literature, and philosophy reflected this synthesis, creating a rich cultural tapestry. Latin, the Roman language, became the lingua franca of the Western world, influencing numerous modern languages.
Roman architecture and engineering achievements were monumental. They perfected the arch, vault, and dome, constructing enduring structures like the Colosseum, Pantheon, and aqueducts. These engineering marvels not only showcased Roman ingenuity but also served practical purposes, from public entertainment to water supply.
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
Model Attribute Check Company Auto PropertyCeline George
In Odoo, the multi-company feature allows you to manage multiple companies within a single Odoo database instance. Each company can have its own configurations while still sharing common resources such as products, customers, and suppliers.
Instructions for Submissions thorugh G- Classroom.pptxJheel Barad
This presentation provides a briefing on how to upload submissions and documents in Google Classroom. It was prepared as part of an orientation for new Sainik School in-service teacher trainees. As a training officer, my goal is to ensure that you are comfortable and proficient with this essential tool for managing assignments and fostering student engagement.
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkTechSoup
Dive into the world of AI! Experts Jon Hill and Tareq Monaur will guide you through AI's role in enhancing nonprofit websites and basic marketing strategies, making it easy to understand and apply.
1. 1
Wildfire Season Forecast
Forecast 2021
May 20, 2021
Richard Carr, Wildland Fire Research Analyst,
Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources
Canada
3. 3
3
Wildland fire in Canada
• Fire numbers and areas burned are highly variable
• Number of fires decreasing; area burned increasing?
• Consider better detection and suppression
20. 20
20
Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI)
System
Temperature
Humidity,
Wind, Rain
Temperature,
Humidity,
Rain
Wind
Temperature,
Rain
Fire Weather
Observations
DC
Drought Code
DMC
Duff Moisture Code
ISI
Initial Spread Index
BUI
Buildup Index
FWI
Fire Weather Index
FFMC
Fine Fuel Moisture Code
Fire Behavior
Indexes
Fuel Moisture
Codes
Snow depth
Barometric Pressure
Horizontal Visibility
Cloud cover and type
Upper air data
DSR/MSR/SSR
Severity Rating
Seasonal forecasts use the severity rating anomaly
21. 21
Climate Ensemble Data: CanSIPS
• Models developed by Canadian Centre for Climate
modeling and analysis
• Models:
• CanCM4i
• GEM-NEMO: Global Environmental Multiscale – Nucleus for
European Modeling of the Ocean
• 10-member ensembles producing 12-month forecasts
• NRCan uses temperature and precipitation data
21
22. 22
22
NRCan-CFS NASFAO and BN Maps
Visual assessment of other data sources used in
Briefing Notes (BN) and North American Seasonal
Forecast Outlook Assessment (NASFAO)
+ =
Include on CWFIS?
Example only
31. 31
• Climate model limitations
• New runs may differ substantially from previous ones
• Weather often changes partway through a month
• Fire activity depends on ignitions
• Lightning
• Human-caused
31
Caveats …
32. 32
• Weak climatic drivers may produce fluctuating
weather patterns
• Model consensus points to cool northwest, dry south
• Much of dry and warm area in agricultural areas
• This depiction may point to a normal fire year, if
ignitions levels are normal
• Southern boreal may be very active
32
Conclusions …
33. 33
• Canada’s ~6000-8000 fires burn 2-3 million ha yearly
• Fires with serious consequences may occur in any year
• Or where forecast indicates below normal conditions
• Check updates
• Seasonal forecast: first few days each month on CWFIS
• Daily conditions: provincial and/or CWFIS web sites
33
Things to remember …
Government of Ontario
34. 34
34
Questions?
Contact:
Richard Carr
Fire Research Analyst
Natural Resources Canada –
Canadian Forest Service
Richard.Carr@canada.ca
5320 122 Street NW
Edmonton, AB, Canada
T6H 3S5
825-510-1265 780-710-3147
?
?
?
?
?
36. 36
• More CFS staff = more help for upgrades:
• Predictive Services group?
• CWFIF project?
• More input locations
• Additional model output (wind speed, snowmelt, ...)
• Other data sources and models
• Validation
36
Possible improvements …
