Alyssa Stewart, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation Summarizes the 2012 Northern Rockies Geographical Area fire season and provides an outlook for 2013. Presentation provide at the Clark Fork River Basin Water Summary 2012 & Water Outlook 2013 held October 23, 2012.

1. 2012 Fire Season Wrap-up & 2013 Outlook
Alyssa Stewart
DNRC Assistant Center Manager, HIDC
astewart@mt.gov 406-449-5475

2. The Northern Rockies Geographic Area
Northern Idaho, Montana, Yellowstone National Park, North Dakota and a small
portion of South Dakota.

3. http://gacc.nifc.gov/nrcc

4. 2012 Fire Cause:
60% human, 40% lightning,
on par with 10-yr average,
58% human, 42% lightning
So far in 2012 there have been 3,272 fires for 1,407,026 acres, including 159
large fires in the NRGA – at least one every month except February.

7. Clark Fork River Basin
An estimated 527 fires for 148,154
acres burned in the Clark Fork River
Basin.
This is 16% of the fires and 11% of the
total acres burned in the NRGA.

8. Why was 2012 a record year in the NRGA?
Very dry & hot June,
September driest in
MT history.
Very
convective
Spring was summer.
dry!
2011-2012
snowpack
normal to a
little less
100-hr and
1000-hr fuel
moistures largely
2011 Fall a little dry below normal and
but not too bad. set new minimums

9. Energy Release Component & 1000-hr Fuel Graphs by Predictive
Service Area
Energy Release Component (ERC): Composite value that relates fuel moisture
to potential heat release per unit of flaming area, predictor of fire intensity –
how hot a fire could burn. Based on worst case scenario.
All graphs for Fuel Model G, dense conifer – includes 1000 hour fuels that are
less susceptible to daily weather changes like a flashy fuel – national standard.

10. Northern Panhandle Idaho/
Northwest Montana

11. Southern Panhandle Idaho/
Western Montana

12. North Central Idaho/
Southwest Montana

13. Glacier National Park/
Wildernesses

14. Big Hole Montana

15. Fire danger takes current and previous weather, fuel type, and live and dead fuel
moisture into account.

18. 2013 Outlook?