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- 1. Modul ke: Fakultas Program Studi Modul ke: Fakultas Program Studi Sistem Informasi Manajemen Meningkatkan Proses Pengambilan Keputusan H. Lathif Hakim, Lsq. MSc. ME. 12 Fakultas Ekonomi & Bisnis Manajemen Pembuka Daftar Pustaka Akhiri Presentasi
- 2. Management Information Systems • Apa saja jenis keputusan dan bagaimana pengambilan keputusan proses kerja? • Bagaimana sistem informasi mendukung kegiatan manajer dan pengambilan keputusan manajemen? • Bagaimana intelijen bisnis dan bisnis analisis mendukung pengambilan keputusan? • Bagaimana pengambilan keputusan yang berbeda konstituen dalam penggunaan organisasi intelijen bisnis? • Apa peran sistem informasi dalam membantu orang yang bekerja dalam kelompok membuat keputusan yang lebih efisien? Learning Objectives CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 2
- 3. Management Information Systems • Problem: Rantai pengecer seperti Starbucks, Duane Reade, perlu menentukan apa produk akan menjual apa harga di lokasi yang berbeda • Solutions: analisis bisnis perangkat lunak untuk menganalisis pola dalam data penjualan, membuat profil harga dan profil pembeli untuk daerah yang berbeda, lokal, bahkan saat hari • Menunjukkan penggunaan intelijen bisnis dan analisis sistem untuk meningkatkan penjualan dan keuntungan • Menggambarkan bagaimana sistem informasi meningkatkan pengambilan keputusan Apa yang harus Jual? Apa Harga dapat mengisi? Meminta data tersebut CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 3
- 4. Management Information Systems • Nilai bisnis pengambilan keputusan yang lebih baik – Meningkatkan ratusan ribu "kecil" keputusan menambahkan hingga nilai tahunan besar untuk bisnis • Types of decisions: – Unstructured: pembuat keputusan harus memberikan penilaian, evaluasi, dan wawasan untuk memecahkan masalah – Structured: berulang dan rutin, melibatkan prosedur yang pasti untuk menangani sehingga mereka tidak harus diperlakukan setiap kali seperti baru – Semistructured: Hanya bagian dari masalah telah jelas jawaban yang diberikan oleh prosedur yang diterima Pengambilan Keputusan dan Sistem Informasi CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 4
- 5. Management Information Systems • Senior managers: – Membuat banyak keputusan yang tidak terstruktur Misalnya Haruskah kita memasuki pasar baru? • Middle managers: – Membuat keputusan yang lebih terstruktur tetapi ini mungkin termasuk komponen terstruktur Misalnya Mengapa laporan pemenuhan pesanan yang menunjukkan penurunan di Minneapolis? • Operational managers, rank and file employees – Membuat keputusan yang lebih terstruktur – Misalnya Apakah pelanggan memenuhi kriteria untuk kredit? Decision Making and Information Systems CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 5
- 6. Management Information Systems Decision Making and Information Systems PERSYARATAN INFORMASI UTAMA KELOMPOK PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN DALAM PERUSAHAAN Manajer senior, manajer menengah, manajer operasional, dan karyawan memiliki berbagai jenis keputusan dan kebutuhan informasi. FIGURE 12-1 CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 6
- 7. Management Information Systems • 4 tahapan proses pengambilan keputusan 1. Intelligence • Menemukan, mengidentifikasi, dan memahami masalah yang terjadi dalam organisasi 2. Design • Mengidentifikasi dan mengeksplorasi solusi untuk masalah ini 3. Choice • Memilih antara alternatif solusi 4. Implementation • Membuat pekerjaan alternatif yang dipilih dan terus memantau bagaimana solusi baik bekerja Decision Making and Information Systems CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 7
- 8. Management Information Systems Decision Making and Information Systems TAHAPAN DALAM PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN Proses pengambilan keputusan dipecah menjadi empat tahap. FIGURE 12-2 CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 8
- 9. Management Information Systems • Sistem informasi hanya dapat membantu dalam beberapa peran yang dimainkan oleh manajer • Model klasik manajemen: 5 fungsi – Perencanaan, pengorganisasian, koordinasi, memutuskan, dan mengendalikan • Model perilaku yang lebih kontempore – Perilaku aktual dari manajer tampaknya kurang sistematis, lebih informal, kurang reflektif, lebih reaktif, dan kurang terorganisasi dibandingkan model klasik Decision Making and Information Systems CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 9
- 10. Management Information Systems • 10 peran manajerial Mintzberg – Interpersonal roles 1. figur 2. pemimpin 3. hubungan – Informational roles 4. pusat kendali 5. penyebar 6. Juru Bicara – Decisional roles 7. pengusaha 8. penangan gangguan 9. sumber Daya pengalokasi 10. perunding Decision Making and Information Systems CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 10
- 11. Management Information Systems • Three main reasons why investments in information technology do not always produce positive results 1. Information quality • High-quality decisions require high-quality information 2. Management filters • Managers have selective attention and have variety of biases that reject information that does not conform to prior conceptions 3. Organizational inertia and politics • Strong forces within organizations resist making decisions calling for major change Decision Making and Information Systems CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 11
- 12. Management Information Systems • High velocity automated decision making – Made possible through computer algorithms precisely defining steps for a highly structured decision – Humans taken out of decision – E.g. High-speed computer trading programs • Trades executed in 30 milliseconds • Responsible for “Flash Crash” of 2010 – Require safeguards to ensure proper operation and regulation Decision Making and Information Systems CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 12
- 13. Management Information Systems • Business intelligence – Infrastructure for collecting, storing, analyzing data produced by business – Databases, data warehouses, data marts • Business analytics – Tools and techniques for analyzing data – OLAP, statistics, models, data mining • Business intelligence vendors – Create business intelligence and analytics purchased by firms Business Intelligence in the Enterprise CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 13
- 14. Management Information Systems • Six elements in the business intelligence environment 1. Data from the business environment 2. Business intelligence infrastructure 3. Business analytics toolset 4. Managerial users and methods 5. Delivery platform – MIS, DSS, ESS 6. User interface Business Intelligence in the Enterprise CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 14
- 15. Management Information Systems Business Intelligence in the Enterprise BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AND ANALYTICS FOR DECISION SUPPORT Business intelligence and analytics requires a strong database foundation, a set of analytic tools, and an involved management team that can ask intelligent questions and analyze data. FIGURE 12-3 CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 15
- 16. Management Information Systems • Business intelligence and analytics capabilities – Goal is to deliver accurate real-time information to decision-makers – Main functionalities of BI systems 1. Production reports 2. Parameterized reports 3. Dashboards/scorecards 4. Ad hoc query/search/report creation 5. Drill down 6. Forecasts, scenarios, models Business Intelligence in the Enterprise CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 16
- 17. Management Information Systems • Business intelligence users – 80% are casual users relying on production reports – Senior executives • Use monitoring functionalities – Middle managers and analysts • Ad-hoc analysis – Operational employees • Prepackaged reports • E.g. sales forecasts, customer satisfaction, loyalty and attrition, supply chain backlog, employee productivity Business Intelligence in the Enterprise CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 17
- 18. Management Information Systems Business Intelligence in the Enterprise BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE USERS Casual users are consumers of BI output, while intense power users are the producers of reports, new analyses, models, and forecasts. FIGURE 12-4 CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 18
- 19. Management Information Systems • Examples of BI applications – Predictive analytics • Use patterns in data to predict future behavior • E.g. Credit card companies use predictive analytics to determine customers at risk for leaving – Data visualization • Help users see patterns and relationships that would be difficult to see in text lists – Geographic information systems (GIS) • Ties location-related data to maps Business Intelligence in the Enterprise CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 19
- 20. Management Information Systems • Management strategies for developing BI and BA capabilities – Two main strategies 1. One-stop integrated solution – Hardware firms sell software that run optimally on their hardware – Makes firm dependent on single vendor – switching costs 2. Multiple best-of-breed solution – Greater flexibility and independence – Potential difficulties in integration – Must deal with multiple vendors Business Intelligence in the Enterprise CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 20
- 21. Management Information Systems Read the Interactive Session and discuss the following questions • Identify and describe the problem discussed in the case. • How do business intelligence systems provide a solution to this problem? What are the inputs and outputs of these systems? • What management, organization, and technology issues must be addressed by this solution? • How successful is this solution? Explain your answer. • Should all school districts use such a data-driven approach to education? Why or why not? Business Intelligence in the Enterprise DATA-DRIVEN SCHOOLS CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 21
- 22. Management Information Systems • Operational and middle managers – Monitor day to day business performance – Make fairly structured decisions – Use MIS • “Super user” and business analysts – Use more sophisticated analysis – Create customized reports – Use DSS Business Intelligence Constituencies CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 22
- 23. Management Information Systems • Decision support systems –Use mathematical or analytical models –Allow varied types of analysis • “What-if” analysis • Sensitivity analysis • Backward sensitivity analysis • Multidimensional analysis / OLAP –E. g. pivot tables Business Intelligence Constituencies CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 23
- 24. Management Information Systems Business Intelligence Constituencies SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS This table displays the results of a sensitivity analysis of the effect of changing the sales price of a necktie and the cost per unit on the product’s break-even point. It answers the question, “What happens to the break-even point if the sales price and the cost to make each unit increases or decreases?” FIGURE 12-5 CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 24
- 25. Management Information Systems Business Intelligence Constituencies A PIVOT TABLE THAT EXAMINES CUSTOMER REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION AND ADVERTISING SOURCE In this pivot table, we are able to examine where an online training company’s customers come from in terms of region and advertising source. FIGURE 12-6 CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 25
- 26. Management Information Systems • Decision-support for senior management – Help executives focus on important performance information – Balanced scorecard method: • Measures outcomes on four dimensions: 1. Financial 2. Business process 3. Customer 4. Learning & growth • Key performance indicators (KPIs) measure each dimension Business Intelligence Constituencies CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 26
- 27. Management Information Systems Business Intelligence Constituencies THE BALANCED SCORECARD FRAMEWORK In the balanced scorecard framework, the firm’s strategic objectives are operationalized along four dimensions: financial, business process, customer, and learning and growth. Each dimension is measured using several KPIs. FIGURE 12-7 CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 27
- 28. Management Information Systems • Decision-support for senior management (cont.) – Business performance management (BPM) • Translates firm’s strategies (e.g. differentiation, low- cost producer, scope of operation) into operational targets • KPIs developed to measure progress towards targets – Data for ESS • Internal data from enterprise applications • External data such as financial market databases • Drill-down capabilities Business Intelligence Constituencies CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 28
- 29. Management Information Systems Read the Interactive Session and discuss the following questions • What management, organization, and technology issues had to be addressed when developing Valero’s dashboard? • What measures of performance do the dashboards display? Give examples of several management decisions that would benefit from the information provided by Valero’s dashboards. • What kinds of information systems are required by Valero to maintain and operate its refining dashboard? • How effective are Valero’s dashboards in helping management pilot the company? Explain your answer. • Should Valero develop a dashboard to measure the many factors in its environment that it does not control? Why or why not? Business Intelligence Constituencies PILOTING VALERO WITH REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 29
- 30. Management Information Systems • Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) – Interactive system to facilitate solution of unstructured problems by group – Specialized hardware and software; typically used in conference rooms • Overhead projectors, display screens • Software to collect, rank, edit participant ideas and responses • May require facilitator and staff – Enables increasing meeting size and increasing productivity – Promotes collaborative atmosphere, guaranteeing anonymity – Uses structured methods to organize and evaluate ideas Business Intelligence Constituencies CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 30
- 31. Management Information Systems All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Printed in the United States of America. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall CHAPTER 12: ENHANCING DECISION MAKING © Prentice Hall 2011 31
- 32. BAB II Sistem Pengambilan Keputusan Perspektif Lain:
- 33. Making Decision is a Fundamental Life Skill Rasional > Irasional Irasional > Rasional Spiritual Filosofi/ Nilai/ Budaya Konsep/ Tujuan Strategi/ taktik Operasional/ praktek/ aksi (course of action) While hard data may inform our intellect, it is largely soft data that generates wisdom…Hard information is often limited in scope, lacking richness, and often fails to encompass important non economic and non quantitative factors. Henry Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Thinking
- 34. PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN RASIONAL Kelebihan Kekurangan Metode yang teruji dan mapan Fokus pada pengumpulan data dan kriteria yang ditetapkan Mengurangi subyektifitas Efisien – tergantung teknologi yang diterapkan (pengumpulan dan pengolahan serta presentasi data) Yang umum digunakan konsep dasar BCR (Benefit-Cost Ratio) dan Probabilitas hasilnya ‘kepuasan’ atau ‘optimasi’/ ‘maksimasi’ Diasumsikan sudah ada pengetahuan yang akan dihasilkan Model linier dan tidak dinamis (mengikuti langkah-langkah keterkaitan) Dimunculkan sebagai sebagai obyektif namun pengambilan keputusan oleh siapapun membutuhkan justifikasi pribadi (tidak bebas nilai) “It is impossible to be purely rational” - Herbert Simon, Nobel Prize Winner Situasi terbaik dalam memanfaatkan pertimbangan Rasional • masalah yang terstruktur (mis. Masalah permesinan) • apabila data terpercaya tersedia untuk analisis • tersedia contoh untuk memahami kondisi sejenis
- 35. Pengambilan Keputusan dan Manajer Manajemen adalah suatu proses untuk mencapai tujuan organisasi melalui pemanfaatan sumberdaya yang dimiliki (SDM, dana, energi, material, ruang dan waktu). Sumberdaya yang dimaksud dipahami sebagai inputs, dan hasil yang dicapai untuk memenuhi tujuan disebut output dari proses menajemen. Manajer memandang proses ini sebagai upaya untuk memperoleh hasil yang optimal.
- 36. Tiga Kategori Pekerjaan Manajer (Mintzberg, 1973) 1. Peran Interpersonal: figur kepala, pemimpin, penghubung. 2. Peran Informasional: monitor, diseminator, jurubicara. 3. Peran Keputusan: entrepreneur, menangani kekacauan, pengatur alokasi sumberdaya, negosiator.
- 37. 4 Tipe Model Umum Pengambilan Keputusan Iconic (Scale) Models. penyederhanaan dari model abstrak; replika fisik dari sebuah sistem, biasanya berdasarkan perbedaan skala dibandingkan aslinya Analog Models. berlawanan dengan model iconic, tidak mirip dengan sistem yang riel tetapi mempunyai perilaku yang mirip. Mathematical (Quantitative) Models. hubungan yang kompleks dari banyak sistem umumnya tidak dapat sepenuhnya terwakili. Untuk dapat mengabstraksikannya diperlukan pemanfaatan model- model matematis. (Probability, B/C ratio, others) Mental models memberikan gambaran subyektif bagaimana seseorang memikirkan tentang suatu situasi.
- 38. Model Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial • Model Ekonomi-Rasional – Kerangka perspektif bagaimana suatu keputusan diambil dengan asumsi bahwa pengambil keputusan memiliki informasi akurat yang lengkap • Model Keputusan-Perilaku (Behavioral Decision) – Tidak seperti Model Ekonomi-Rasional, model Keputusan-Perilaku ini memahami adanya keterbatasan manusia yang membuat keputusan rasional sulit untuk dicapai.
- 39. The Manager’s Decision Role
- 41. Behavioral Decision Model Satu konsep yang penting untuk dipahami dalam proses pengambilan keputusan: Bounded Rationality Intuition Satisficing Escalation of Commitment Mengenal keterbatasan manusia oleh adanya pembatasan organisasional, seperti waktu, informasi, sumberdaya, dan juga kapabilitas mentalnya Analisis yang tidak disadari berdasarkan pengalaman (yang lalu) Suatu pencarian sampai dengan tingkat memuaskan dan tidak perlu sampai sempurna atau optimal Kecenderungan untuk menambah komitmen dari aksi (hasil keputusan) sebelumnya seperti yang diharapkan jika seorang pimpinan jika mengikuti proses pengambilan keputusan yang efektif
- 42. Hambatan dalam Membuat Keputusan Ego in Decision Making • 1/3ego drove the decision • 81% edict or persuasion drove the decision • 2/3never explored alternatives once they made up their minds - Dr. Paul Nutt, Why Decisions Fail
- 43. Kekuatan x Ego = Kelemahan • Confidence (percaya diri) • Quickness (kecepatan) • Sharp wit (bijak) • Determination • Dedication • Commitment • Perseverance (tekun) • Persuasive Sense of infallibility (tidak merasa bersalah) Overhastiness (terlalu terburu-buru) Abrasiveness (pembawaan kasar) Inflexibility Workaholism Intolerance Resistance to change (kaku) Manipulation - Adapted from The Paradox of Success by John O’Neil Hambatan dalam Membuat Keputusan
- 44. Influencing do’s Try to understand the other person Listen and show you are listening Know yourself Ask open questions Create rapport Let people find their own solutions Stay open to being influenced yourself Create common ground through your enthusiasm Influencing don’ts Start with a fixed position that you are determined to defend Interrupt the other person with your views Talk more than you listen Overly rely on facts, figures, logic, data Make assumptions about the other person’s motivation Leave other people to guess what you want Influencing Do’s dan Don’ts (Jenny Rogers “Influencing Skills”)
- 45. Apa yang membuat keputusan berkualitas? Kewaspadaan dapat meningkatkan kualitas keputusan. Kewaspadaan yang dimaksud di sini adalah adanya perhatian terhadap prosedur pengambilan keputusan yang benar
- 46. Strategi Umum Pengambilan Keputusan Spontanitas Memilih opsi pertama yang muncul dalam benak/pikiran; tanpa menghiraukan adanya pilihan alternatif lainnya Patuh Mengikuti aturan atau tata nilai atau kesepakatan Penundaan Menunda pemikiran dan tindakan sampai tinggal terbatas beberapa opsi saja Menyulitkan Terakumulasinya banyak informasi sehingga membingungkan dalam menganalisis opsi Intensi Memilih opsi yang dapat memuaskan secara intelektual maupun emosional sekaligus Hasrat Memilih opsi yang memungkin untuk mencapai hasil terbaik walaupun akan berhadapan dengan resiko Menghindar Memilih opsi yang sebisa mungkin terhindar dari hasil yang buruk Keamanan Memilih opsi yang kemungkinan cukup berhasil, hanya membebani sedikit orang, dan diarahkan untuk pilihan yang sedikit beresiko Sintesis Memilih opsi yang memiliki peluang terbaik untuk berhasil dan paling disukai
- 47. Strategi Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial STRATEGI OPTIMUM Memutuskan memilih alternatif solusi terbaik dari sejumlah alternatif STRATEGI KEPUASAN Memutuskan memilih solusi yang telah memenuhi persyaratan minimum (tidak harus sempurna atau seluruh alternatif dikaji) STRATEGI QUASI KEPUASAN Menggunakan bobot daripada menghitung satu per satu faktor atau variabel penentu
- 48. 8 Elements of Smart Choices Problem Objectives Alternatives Consequences Tradeoffs Uncertainty Risk tolerance Linked Decision PrOACT Hammond, et.al., 1999. Smart Choices; A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions Kondisi dasar (lingkungan) yang menjadi perhatian utama pada setiap penetapan elemen PrOACT
- 49. Problem • Cara kita menetapkan problem menunjukkan kerangka keputusan kita • Solusi yang baik bagi penempatan permasalahan suatu keputusan yang pas akan menjadi smarter choice daripada excellent solution untuk penempatan permasalahan yang lemah • Kelemahan utama dalam memformulasikan permasalahan pengambilan keputusan adalah sifat malas . Oleh karena itu dianjurkan untuk senantiasa kreatif dalam merumuskan solusi – ubahlah permasalahan menjadi peluang ciptakan alternatif kreatif Langkah • tanya: mengapa perlu membuat keputusan? • apa kendala dalam membuat keputusan • identifikasi elemen dasar dalam membuat keputusan • temu-kenali faktor terkait dengan masalah • rumuskan definisi permasalahan yang aplikatif • uji rumusan permasalahan dengan pihak lain
- 50. The reason most people never reach their goals is that they don’t define them… Winners can tell you where they are going, what they plan to do along the way, and who will be sharing the adventure with them. – Denis Waitley Objective SMART Objectives… Specific Measurable Achievable Reach Time-bound Langkah: 1. Tulis seluruh hal yang menjadi perhatian untuk mengarahkan pada Objectives 2. Ubah perhatian2 tadi menjadi Objectives 3. Bedakan antara hasil akhir dan makna hasil, contoh atlit lari mencapai garis finis di Olimpiade 4. Klarifikasi makna tadi menjadi Objectives 5. Uji alakah Objectives tadi masih tercakup dalam perhatian2 di atas
- 51. Alternative “ Don’t box yourself in with limited alternatives” Hammond, 1999 Kunci memperoleh alternatif lebih baik • manfaatkan rumusan Objectives, tanyakan bagaimana mencapainya? • kaji kemungkinan hambatan-hambatan • tumbuhkan aspirasi • gunakan pikirin sendiri terlebih dulu • belajar dari pengalaman • tanya pendapat pihak lain • identifikasi alternatif-alternatif baru • susun alternatif tersebut baru kaji/evaluasi • jangan pernah berhenti mencari alternatif
- 52. Consequences “ be sure you really understand the consequences of your alternatives before make a choice” Hammond, 1999 Susun tabel konsekuensi: 1. Siapkan mental anda untuk kondisi masa yang akan datang 2. Buat jabaran ‘free-form’ konsekuensi untuk setiap alternatif 3. Hindari / kurangi setiap alternatif yang kurang menguntungkan berdasarkan kajian konsekuensi 4. Organisir jabaran konsekuensi dari setiap alternatif terpilih
- 53. Tradeoffs “ Decision with multiple objectives can not be resolved (ditetapkan) by focusing on any one objective” Hammond, 1999 • Bandingkan konsekuensi dan alternatif kemudian tetapkan atau kurangi sejumlah pilihan yang tidak menguntungkan. • Tradeoff merupakan pilihan atas perbandingan masing-masing alternatif dan konsekuensinya yang dinilai atas dasar objectives
- 54. Kelebihan Kekurangan Berbagi pengalaman dan keahlian dari beberapa individu Lebih banyak data, informasi, dan pengetahuan yang terakumulasi Masalah dipandang dari berbagai sektor Lebih banyak anggota yang dapat memperoleh kepuasan Lebih banyak dapat diterima dan sepakat dengan keputusan yang diambil Butuh waktu lebih banyak Ada dominasi minoritas Ada kecenderungan kompromi Ada kecenderungan anggota grup lebih terkonsentrasi pada kepentingan individual dari tujuan kelompok Tidak terhindar dari tekanan sosial Ada kecenderungan lebih sebagai kelompok pemikir (bukan pengambil keputusan) Group decision making is becoming more common as organizations focus on improving customer service and push decision making to lower levels.
- 55. Guidelines for Decision Making by Richard Denhardt • Jaga komitmen dalam proses pengambilan keputusan; manfaatkan komitmen ini dan biarkan data/informasi yang terpercaya bukan emosi yang mengarahkan keputusan • Dapatkan asupan dari staf, khususnya yang berkaitan dengan permasalahan kerja yang bersangkutan, sebelum membuat keputusan kunci • Hindari sebisa mungkin pola pengambilan keputusan ‘top-down’ • Yakin terhadap dukungan kelompok pengambil keputusan dalam organisasi
- 56. Teknik yang digunakan untuk menghasilkan “Quality in Group Decision Making” • Brainstorming membuka segala kemungkinan pemikiran tanpa harus dievaluasi • Nominal Group Technique suatu proses rancangan struktural untuk mensimulasi secara kreatif ‘group decision making’ manakala ada kelemahan dalam pencapaian kesepakatan atau ada kelemahan penguasaan pengetahuan terhadap permasalahan yang dihadapi dari para anggota • Delphi Technique Suatu teknik analisis yang digunakan untuk memprediksi keadaan masa depan tanpa harus melibatkan pertemuan dengan ‘group decision making’ secara langsung (tatap muka) • Devil’s Advocacy Approach seseorang atau subkelompok diutus untuk mengkritisi rumusan tindakan dan mengidentifikasi permasalahan yang perlu menjadi perhatian sebelum adanya keputusan final • Dialectical Inquiry Approaches a decision from two opposite points and structures a debate between conflicting views
- 58. Problems Objectives Alternatives Consequences Tradeoffs TABEL PROSES SMART CHOICE(S) Kasus: Kenaikan gaji (take homepay) sebesar 200%, bagaimana dan kapan ? BEST CHOICE:
- 59. Referensi: • Raymond, dan George P. Schell, (2007) “Sistem Informasi Manajemen”, Penerbit Salemba Empat, Jakarta. • Kenneth C. Laudon dan Jane P. Laudon, (2014), “Sistem Informasi Manajemen; Mengelola Perusahaan Digital”, Penerbit Salemba Empat, Jakarta. • James A. O’Brien dan George M. Marakas, (2014), “Sistem Informasi Manajemen”, Penerbit Salemba Empat, Jakarta. • ----------------------------------------------------------------------------, jilid ke dua.
- 60. Terima Kasih
Editor's Notes
- This chapter focuses on the information systems that support decision-making in a firm and discusses the value of improved decision-making in an organization. Ask the students to describe different types of decisions and whether some types of decisions are less valuable than others. What types of decisions, in a work framework, have students encountered in their own employment situations? Ask students to describe some of the decisions they made on their last job. How did they use information systems to help make those decisions?
- This slide discusses the chapter opening case on the use of business analytics software by major retailers to find patterns in sales data and improve product offerings and price points to improve sales and profitability. The case offers the example of 1-800-Flowers use of analytics software from SAS Inc. to record and analyze buyer profiles to help improve targeting of its product, determine what “specials” to offer, plan sales and marketing strategies, and ultimately improve the conversion rate of browsers to buyers by 20 percent. Ask students if they have noticed day-to-day (or faster) variations in prices on Internet goods. Do prices change ever that quickly at “bricks and mortar” stores?
- This slide discusses the importance of improved decision-making and describes the three types of decisions that are made in an organization. Table 12-1 in the text illustrates how a small decision made hundreds of times a year can be just as valuable as a single decision made once a year. For example, the decision to schedule production to fill orders, made 150 times a year, with a value of $10,000 if this decision is improved, can mean an annual value of $1.5 million. The different levels in an organization tend to make different types of decisions, and require different types of support to make these decisions. Ask students to provide examples of each type of decision. Give students examples of decisions and ask what category the decision fall into and why.
- This slide describes the types of decisions being made at the different levels within an organization. Semi-structured decisions contain a portion that is unstructured and a portion that is structured. Which portion, of the example question for middle managers, is structured and which is unstructured? What would make this question a fully structured question? Ask students to come up with additional examples of decisions at the executive, middle management, and operational levels of the organization, for companies they have worked for.
- This figure provides an illustration of how the nature of decision making changes as you move up, and down, the corporate hierarchy. There are of course exceptions. Some senior managers like to take a hands-on approach to daily operations.
- This slide describes the process of decision-making as a series of four stages. It is important to note that if an implemented solution doesn’t work, the decider can return to an earlier stage in the process and repeat as needed. Give the students an example decision, such as, “What college should I apply to?” and ask them to describe the actions taken at each of the four stages.
- This graphic illustrates the four stages of decision making introduced in the previous slide, emphasizing that steps can be repeated as needed, depending on the outcome at each stage.
- This slide discusses the idea that, while information systems can assist in making decisions by providing information and tools for analysis, they cannot always improve on decisions being made. Ask the students to provide examples of decisions that an information system might not be able to assist in. Is there any similarity among these example decisions, and what does this say about the types of decisions an information system can help with? You can understand the complexity and breadth of some of the decisions being made within an organization by looking at the activities of its managers. While the classical model of management sees five functional roles of managers, real-life observation of managers sees far more complexity in managerial activities. Ask the students to recall the five attributes listed in the book as differing greatly from the classical description. (1) Managers perform a great deal of work at an unrelenting pace (2) managerial activities are fragmented; lasting for less than 9 minutes (3) managers prefer current, specific, ad hoc information; (4) managers prefer oral forms of communication and (5) managers give high priority to maintaining a complex web of contacts as an informal information system. Ask students to explain attributes 3, 4, and 5.
- This slide expands on the behavioral model of managers and describes Mintzberg’s behavioral model of managers which defines 10 managerial roles that fall into three categories. Ask students to give examples of activities for each role. Which of these roles can be assisted by information systems and which cannot?
- Even in decision-making situations that can be helped by information systems, the information system may fail in helping to solve the problem or lead to a better decision. This slide describes the three main reasons why investments in information systems do not always produce positive results. What is meant by information quality? The text lists seven quality dimensions: accuracy, integrity, consistency, completeness, validity, timeliness, accessibility. Ask students to identify and/or describe these dimensions? Ask students to provide an example of what a management “filter” might be. Have they ever witnessed someone in a managerial position be unable to recognize or handle a problem because of a “filter” they are using (but don’t even know it)? Ask students why people within an organization would resist using an information system.
- This slide looks at the growth of systems for executing high-velocity decision-making, such as financial trading programs. A second example is Google’s search engine. What types of problems lend themselves to this type of system? Ask students what other activities would benefit from humans being taken out of the decision making process.
- This slide introduces the concept of business intelligence and analytics. The text gives the example of Hallmark Cards, which uses SAS analytics software to analyze buying patterns and determine the most effective marketing plan for different types of customers. For example, which customers would respond best to direct mail or email, and to what types of messages. It is important to understand that business intelligence and business analytics are products defined by hardware and software vendors. This is also one of the fastest growing segments in the U.S. software environment. Ask students why this might be so.
- This slide looks at the six main elements at play in business intelligence. Ask students what is meant by managerial users and methods and why this is important. (Managers impose order on the analysis of data using a variety of managerial methods that define strategic business goals and specify how progress will be measured. Without management oversight, business analytics can produce a great deal of information that focus on the wrong matters and divert attention from the real issues. As the text notes, so far, only humans can ask intelligent questions.)
- This graphic looks at the different elements in the business intelligence environment; from left clockwise: Data, infrastructure, toolset, managerial users, platform, and user interface. This is an overview highlighting the kinds of hardware, software, and management capabilities that the major vendors offer and that firms develop over time.
- This slide looks at the main functionalities of business intelligence systems. Parameterized reports are reports that can be adjusted to reflect user-defined parameters. The text gives the example of viewing a report by region and time of day to see how sales vary by these parameters. Ask students what is meant by drill down and give an example (the ability to move from a high level view summary to a detailed view.) For example, a summary view might present the total numbers of products by category sold world wide. Drilling down, views might go to products sold at national, regional, and local levels, and down from product categories to single products and product versions.
- This slide continues the look at how business intelligence is used today, in this case, who uses business intelligence? By far the greatest number of users are managers relying on production reports of varying types (Table 12-5 lists a variety of prepackaged reports for the different business functional areas). (The next slide’s graphic illustrates the different categories of user.)
- This graphic looks at the different types of users and what they use BI applications for. On the left, power users (users who rely on BI most intensively) are broken into four main categories, with each category placed beside the types of reports it uses most. On the right, casual users are also broken into various categories and placed along the types of capabilities used most. For example, senior managers rely most on parameterized reports and dashboards. Ask students if they have ever used BI reports in a job setting.
- This slide looks at various additional examples of BI applications. The text gives the example of FedEx using predictive analytics to develop models that predict how customers will respond to price changes, and has been giving an accuracy of 65 to 90%. Ask students if there are any disadvantages to predictive analytics. Ask students for any examples of data visualization tools they have come across. An example might be tag clouds used for topic navigation on the Internet – the larger the tag, the more popular the category. Note that BI is also used in the public sector for analyzing data and determining public policy, such as allocating school resources, an example discussed in a chapter case.
- This slide looks at the options a firm has in purchasing BI and BA applications. There are advantages and disadvantages to both options – in one case a single vendor might be easier to deal with, but harder to switch. Using multiple applications means that each solution might be more specifically suited to your business, but may pose difficulties when integrating with hardware or other software. The text points out that the marketplace is highly competitive and “given to hyperbole,” and managers will need to carefully examine the software’s capabilities in light of needed expenditures.
- This slide presents discussion questions regarding the case study on the use of data analysis by schools. The case describes student performance data being analyzed to make instructional decisions as well as evaluate teacher performance. Ask students what their thoughts are on the increased reliance on data-driven systems in evaluating student and teacher performance. What are the disadvantages to this?
- This slide and the next several slides discuss the systems used by different levels in a firm to aid decision making. Ask students to recall what types of decisions operational and middle managers make. Ask how TPS systems fit into this picture (MIS produce standardized reports based on data from TPS).
- This slide looks at the decision support systems used for the semi-structured decisions made by the business analysts and “super users” identified on the previous slide and outlines a variety of analysis methods that are utilized. Ask students to give examples of the different types of analysis. Remind students that DSS are business intelligence systems. The text cites the example of Progressive Insurance which uses business intelligence to identify the best customers for its products.
- This graphic illustrates the results of a sensitivity analysis of changing the sales price of a necktie – it answers the question, “What happens to the break-even point if the sales price and the cost to make each unit increases or decreases?”
- This graphic shows the same Microsoft Excel spreadsheet with a PivotTable with two dimensions – it shows where customers come from in terms of region and advertising source.
- This slide looks at the business intelligence used by senior management. These executive support systems utilize some type of methodology to determine which information affects the profitability and success of the firm and how this information can be measured. One popular methodology is the balanced scorecard method. Another popular method is discussed on a following slide. Ask students how the scorecard itself is determined (A scorecard is developed by consultants and senior managers).
- This graphic depicts the balanced scorecard methodology that many managers use to measure the performance of their business, and to understand how firm strategies are impacting the four dimensions of interest. For each of these dimensions performance is operationalized by identifying key performance indicators for that dimension.
- This slide continues the discussion of business intelligence used by senior managers. Another methodology used by ESS, similar to the balanced scorecard method but with a stronger and more explicit emphasis on corporate strategy, is BPM. Ask students to describe what drill-down capabilities are and why is this important. It is important to note that information systems today allow for real-time management – information gathered on the factory floor is transmitted and summarized within hours and seconds for executive dashboards.
- This slide presents discussion questions regarding the chapter case on Valero, the largest oil-refiner in the U.S., which implemented a state-of-the-art Refining Dashboard to display real time data allowing managers and executives to monitor the performance of the firm’s 16 refineries. Valero’s management estimates that the dashboards are saving $230 million per year at the 16 refineries where they are in use. However, Valero’s stock price plummeted in 2010 because of a drop in demand for petroleum products – showing that a powerful and successful dashboard does not guarantee profits even though it may increase the efficiency of operations.
- This slide discusses GDSS, another type of system that supports decision-making. What types of problems might a group encounter when trying to make a decision as a group? What kinds of decisions might need to be made as a group? Increasingly, GDSS uses a virtual meeting or telepresence capability rather than physical group decision rooms which were used when these techniques were first developed.