The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell 5.4% in March to its lowest level since the survey began in 2013, as concerns over household finances, short-term business conditions, and spending declined sharply due to worries over Russia's actions in Ukraine. Current personal finances reached a series low while expectations for business conditions in one year also fell sharply. Overall consumer confidence in Russia has dropped more than 10% since the start of 2014.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in April as concerns over household finances, business conditions, and the spending climate increased due to the situation in Ukraine. The indicator declined for the third straight month and was almost 11% below early-2014 levels. Current personal finances improved slightly but future expectations fell, while both current and expected business conditions weakened. Inflation expectations rose to a record high.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in May amid rising concerns about household finances, spending on big ticket items, and long-term business conditions. Consumer confidence declined across all income groups, though higher income households were less affected. Consumers expressed growing worries about current economic conditions and the future path of inflation, interest rates, and employment prospects. Spending indicators such as durable buying conditions and car purchases also fell as consumers grew more cautious.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose for the first time in five months in June, up 2.2% from May, though it remained below year-ago levels. Consumer sentiment increased across most regions except the Urals, where it declined to a record low. Confidence rose in lower income groups but fell slightly among high earners. Respondents were more optimistic about business conditions and purchasing durable goods in the near term, but inflation expectations also reached a new high.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013, its lowest since 2009, and that Russia's annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, forcing a rise in interest rates and downward revisions to growth forecasts.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
London, 22 November 2013 MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME. MNI Russia Business Indicator Falls to 51.5 In November from 56.3 in October. Future Expectations Hit A New Low. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined for the second consecutive month, while expectations for the future hit their lowest level since the series began in March.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
The document summarizes the economic landscape in Russia in April 2014. It notes that Russian GDP contracted in Q1 2014 and full-year growth forecasts have been revised down to just 0.5% due to sanctions and turmoil in Ukraine. Industrial production growth slowed in March while car sales were stable. Inflation remains high and the central bank does not plan to ease monetary policy. The economic outlook is uncertain as tensions in Ukraine continue.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in April as concerns over household finances, business conditions, and the spending climate increased due to the situation in Ukraine. The indicator declined for the third straight month and was almost 11% below early-2014 levels. Current personal finances improved slightly but future expectations fell, while both current and expected business conditions weakened. Inflation expectations rose to a record high.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in May amid rising concerns about household finances, spending on big ticket items, and long-term business conditions. Consumer confidence declined across all income groups, though higher income households were less affected. Consumers expressed growing worries about current economic conditions and the future path of inflation, interest rates, and employment prospects. Spending indicators such as durable buying conditions and car purchases also fell as consumers grew more cautious.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose for the first time in five months in June, up 2.2% from May, though it remained below year-ago levels. Consumer sentiment increased across most regions except the Urals, where it declined to a record low. Confidence rose in lower income groups but fell slightly among high earners. Respondents were more optimistic about business conditions and purchasing durable goods in the near term, but inflation expectations also reached a new high.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013, its lowest since 2009, and that Russia's annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, forcing a rise in interest rates and downward revisions to growth forecasts.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
London, 22 November 2013 MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME. MNI Russia Business Indicator Falls to 51.5 In November from 56.3 in October. Future Expectations Hit A New Low. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined for the second consecutive month, while expectations for the future hit their lowest level since the series began in March.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
The document summarizes the economic landscape in Russia in April 2014. It notes that Russian GDP contracted in Q1 2014 and full-year growth forecasts have been revised down to just 0.5% due to sanctions and turmoil in Ukraine. Industrial production growth slowed in March while car sales were stable. Inflation remains high and the central bank does not plan to ease monetary policy. The economic outlook is uncertain as tensions in Ukraine continue.
Russia's consumer sentiment hit a new low in May according to MNI's Russia Consumer Indicator, which fell to 87.2 from 88.5 in April, its lowest level since the series began in 2013. Consumers grew increasingly pessimistic about their personal finances, ability to purchase big ticket items, and long-term business conditions amid high inflation, increased loan costs, and expectations that Russia will fall into recession due to its tense situation with Ukraine. Most components of the indicator declined to new lows in May as consumers faced rising prices and interest rates and anticipated a weakening labor market and contracting economy.
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and in-depth analysis of consumer behaviours within the rapidly changing Russian economy. We provide timely intelligence on the state of an important strategic market.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, as current conditions improved sharply. Consumer sentiment rose in eight of the ten major cities surveyed, while concerns over inflation continued to worsen despite a slowdown in official inflation data. The Employment Outlook Indicator deteriorated considerably in January.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Falls to 94.1 in February from 99.3 in January.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator declined to the lowest level since the survey started in March 2013, led by a sharp fall in consumers’ views about the current state of their personal finances, with not even the winter games able to boost sentiment.
The document analyzes 3M Co. (MMM) and recommends holding the stock. It provides an overview of 3M, key financial metrics, and analysis of factors that could impact 3M's performance such as consumer confidence, the producer price index, unemployment, health care changes, GDP, foreign exchange rates, oil markets, and the industrial/competitive landscape. The analysts predict the stock will closely mirror S&P 500 returns in the short term but is currently overvalued due to risks from foreign exchange exposure.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Economic growth remains weak at 0.9% in Q1 2014, down from 1.3% in Q1 2013, due to sanctions and a weakening currency. Inflation rose in May to its highest since 2011. Industrial production grew 2.8% in May, led by a 4.4% rise in manufacturing. However, car sales declined 12.2% in May from a year ago as higher inflation and a weaker ruble hurt consumer spending. The economic outlook remains challenging amid geopolitical tensions.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine over unpaid bills. Russia's economy faces issues like a weakening currency, high inflation, and stalled growth. GDP growth slowed to just 0.9% in Q1 2014, well below forecasts. Industrial production grew in May but car sales declined sharply. Sanctions and tensions continue to weigh on the economic outlook for Russia.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
1) The document provides an analysis of upcoming economic data and events that could impact markets the following week, including US and Eurozone GDP growth estimates, PMI reports, and central bank meetings from the ECB, Riksbank, and BoJ.
2) It is expected that the global business cycle will continue to weaken as trade tensions persist between the US and China. Eurozone PMIs are forecasted to decline further.
3) The main events covered are the ECB meeting on Thursday, where no policy changes are anticipated, and the Riksbank meeting on Thursday, where the bank may signal a delay in further rate hikes.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, partially fuelled by the upcoming Sochi Winter Olympics. The Consumer Indicator rose to 99.3 in January from 95.7 in December, close to the breakeven 100 level which separates weakness from strength.
Commodities June 2013 Review from VENTURA Commodities.
Contents:
- VENTURA Column
- Top Stories
- Currency update
- Performance of select few commodities
- US Economy update
- Report on Aluminium
- Event Calendar
- Call performance
Know more about "LOW BROKERAGE TRADING" reach us here - http://crm.ventura1.com/vcplnew/formvcpl.aspx
8 JANUARY 2014 . MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rises to 95.7 in December from 94.8 in November. Consumer Confidence Remains Low. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased slightly in December, having hit a series low in November. Confidence remained weak amid continued concerns over inflation, personal finances and a gloomy business outlook.
The Lithuanian Economy - No 8, November 15, 2011Swedbank
- Lithuania experienced strong GDP growth of 6.6% in Q3 2011, but growth is expected to moderate as the global economy slows.
- Retail trade continued double-digit growth in September, though industrial production growth decreased from 14.6% to 6.9% in 2011.
- Growth expectations have worsened due to the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, which will negatively impact exports and business/household confidence.
The document provides a weekly market update summarizing recent economic data and trends in the US. It reports that while the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index declined for the second straight month, the index does not signal a significant recession risk and modest economic expansion is expected through early 2016. Industrial production increased strongly in January, exceeding estimates. Core inflation saw its largest monthly increase since 2011. Housing starts declined slightly in January from the previous month.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document summarizes an analyst's downgrade of the consumer staples sector from overweight to neutral based on two key factors: 1) Earnings estimates have declined and valuations have increased for the sector, weakening its fundamentals. 2) Canadian consumer spending growth has slowed significantly, reducing the sector's leverage to the Canadian consumer. The analyst expects a more sluggish performance from the staples sector going forward given these factors.
February 2016 - Municipal Market ReportJoshua Moews
This document provides an economic update and market commentary for February 2016. It includes key economic statistics for the US, benchmark interest rates and yields, municipal bond market news, and commentary on Federal Reserve policy and interest rates. Inflation indicators rose in January while unemployment fell slightly. Benchmark interest rates declined over the month.
The MNI Russia Business Sentiment provides insight into the Russian economy. Based on a monthly poll of business executives, it tracks and predicts Russian economic conditions.
The document provides a research report from Krause Fund recommending Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) as a strong buy. It summarizes Alcoa's business operations, current stock performance, financial ratios, and provides an analysis of key economic indicators and how they may impact Alcoa's future performance. The analysts initiate coverage with a buy rating and $18-20 price target due to Alcoa's shift toward more profitable downstream products, potential for market share gains, and expectations that recent restructuring efforts will allow it to execute on goals leading to long term share gains.
Доступный туризм: перспективы развития в России. Маньшина Н.В. / Manshina ...Надежда Маньшина
Маньшина Н.В. Доступный туризм: перспективы развития в России // Материалы Делового форуме гостиничного комплекса – Москва-2012 (г. Москва, 18 мая 2012 г.)
Доступный туризм (accessible Tourism) или, как его часто называют – туризм для всех (tourism for all), – один из самых динамично развивающихся сегментов туристского рыка. Это совершенно новое направление для российского туристического бизнеса. В России этот сегмент туристического рынка называют «туризмом для инвалидов», за рубежом используют термины – «туризм для всех», «доступный туризм», «инклюзивный туризм», «безбарьерный туризм».
Мировой рынок этого вида туризма растет с каждым годом.
По данным ООН, 15% мирового населения – инвалиды. В настоящее время около 80 млн людей с инвалидностью в Европе, и около 1 млрд по всему миру. В Российской федерации проживает 13,2 млн инвалидов и 1,5 млн детей-инвалидов.
11% всех туристических поездок в Европе и 7% – во всем мире совершают путешественники с особыми потребностями, чаще всего в компании членов семьи или друзей.
Только в Европе услуги доступного туризма могут быть востребованы у 127 млн граждан Евросоюза, что составляет более 27% европейского населения. Около 70% из них имеют финансовые и физические возможности путешествовать. Если учесть, что их сопровождают друзья, родственники и опекуны, предполагаемые доходы в этом секторе туризма превышают 80 млрд евро.
По мнению представителей российских обществ инвалидов, путешествовать хотели около 11% инвалидов с расходами от $ 1000 на одного человека.
Обзор мирового рынка доступного туризма позволяет определить его значение в современном мире для лечения, реабилитации, повышения уровня здоровья и пр
The document provides an overview of opportunities and challenges for international e-retailers looking to enter the Russian market. It finds that while Russia represents a large market with strong demand for foreign brands, success requires localizing operations to Russian preferences around language, payment methods, fulfillment, and customer service. Local partnerships are also important to gain market insights. While growth is predicted, political and economic instability and the country's large size pose challenges that require commitment to serving Russian customers.
Russia's consumer sentiment hit a new low in May according to MNI's Russia Consumer Indicator, which fell to 87.2 from 88.5 in April, its lowest level since the series began in 2013. Consumers grew increasingly pessimistic about their personal finances, ability to purchase big ticket items, and long-term business conditions amid high inflation, increased loan costs, and expectations that Russia will fall into recession due to its tense situation with Ukraine. Most components of the indicator declined to new lows in May as consumers faced rising prices and interest rates and anticipated a weakening labor market and contracting economy.
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and in-depth analysis of consumer behaviours within the rapidly changing Russian economy. We provide timely intelligence on the state of an important strategic market.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, as current conditions improved sharply. Consumer sentiment rose in eight of the ten major cities surveyed, while concerns over inflation continued to worsen despite a slowdown in official inflation data. The Employment Outlook Indicator deteriorated considerably in January.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Falls to 94.1 in February from 99.3 in January.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator declined to the lowest level since the survey started in March 2013, led by a sharp fall in consumers’ views about the current state of their personal finances, with not even the winter games able to boost sentiment.
The document analyzes 3M Co. (MMM) and recommends holding the stock. It provides an overview of 3M, key financial metrics, and analysis of factors that could impact 3M's performance such as consumer confidence, the producer price index, unemployment, health care changes, GDP, foreign exchange rates, oil markets, and the industrial/competitive landscape. The analysts predict the stock will closely mirror S&P 500 returns in the short term but is currently overvalued due to risks from foreign exchange exposure.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Economic growth remains weak at 0.9% in Q1 2014, down from 1.3% in Q1 2013, due to sanctions and a weakening currency. Inflation rose in May to its highest since 2011. Industrial production grew 2.8% in May, led by a 4.4% rise in manufacturing. However, car sales declined 12.2% in May from a year ago as higher inflation and a weaker ruble hurt consumer spending. The economic outlook remains challenging amid geopolitical tensions.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine over unpaid bills. Russia's economy faces issues like a weakening currency, high inflation, and stalled growth. GDP growth slowed to just 0.9% in Q1 2014, well below forecasts. Industrial production grew in May but car sales declined sharply. Sanctions and tensions continue to weigh on the economic outlook for Russia.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
1) The document provides an analysis of upcoming economic data and events that could impact markets the following week, including US and Eurozone GDP growth estimates, PMI reports, and central bank meetings from the ECB, Riksbank, and BoJ.
2) It is expected that the global business cycle will continue to weaken as trade tensions persist between the US and China. Eurozone PMIs are forecasted to decline further.
3) The main events covered are the ECB meeting on Thursday, where no policy changes are anticipated, and the Riksbank meeting on Thursday, where the bank may signal a delay in further rate hikes.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, partially fuelled by the upcoming Sochi Winter Olympics. The Consumer Indicator rose to 99.3 in January from 95.7 in December, close to the breakeven 100 level which separates weakness from strength.
Commodities June 2013 Review from VENTURA Commodities.
Contents:
- VENTURA Column
- Top Stories
- Currency update
- Performance of select few commodities
- US Economy update
- Report on Aluminium
- Event Calendar
- Call performance
Know more about "LOW BROKERAGE TRADING" reach us here - http://crm.ventura1.com/vcplnew/formvcpl.aspx
8 JANUARY 2014 . MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rises to 95.7 in December from 94.8 in November. Consumer Confidence Remains Low. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased slightly in December, having hit a series low in November. Confidence remained weak amid continued concerns over inflation, personal finances and a gloomy business outlook.
The Lithuanian Economy - No 8, November 15, 2011Swedbank
- Lithuania experienced strong GDP growth of 6.6% in Q3 2011, but growth is expected to moderate as the global economy slows.
- Retail trade continued double-digit growth in September, though industrial production growth decreased from 14.6% to 6.9% in 2011.
- Growth expectations have worsened due to the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, which will negatively impact exports and business/household confidence.
The document provides a weekly market update summarizing recent economic data and trends in the US. It reports that while the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index declined for the second straight month, the index does not signal a significant recession risk and modest economic expansion is expected through early 2016. Industrial production increased strongly in January, exceeding estimates. Core inflation saw its largest monthly increase since 2011. Housing starts declined slightly in January from the previous month.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document summarizes an analyst's downgrade of the consumer staples sector from overweight to neutral based on two key factors: 1) Earnings estimates have declined and valuations have increased for the sector, weakening its fundamentals. 2) Canadian consumer spending growth has slowed significantly, reducing the sector's leverage to the Canadian consumer. The analyst expects a more sluggish performance from the staples sector going forward given these factors.
February 2016 - Municipal Market ReportJoshua Moews
This document provides an economic update and market commentary for February 2016. It includes key economic statistics for the US, benchmark interest rates and yields, municipal bond market news, and commentary on Federal Reserve policy and interest rates. Inflation indicators rose in January while unemployment fell slightly. Benchmark interest rates declined over the month.
The MNI Russia Business Sentiment provides insight into the Russian economy. Based on a monthly poll of business executives, it tracks and predicts Russian economic conditions.
The document provides a research report from Krause Fund recommending Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) as a strong buy. It summarizes Alcoa's business operations, current stock performance, financial ratios, and provides an analysis of key economic indicators and how they may impact Alcoa's future performance. The analysts initiate coverage with a buy rating and $18-20 price target due to Alcoa's shift toward more profitable downstream products, potential for market share gains, and expectations that recent restructuring efforts will allow it to execute on goals leading to long term share gains.
Доступный туризм: перспективы развития в России. Маньшина Н.В. / Manshina ...Надежда Маньшина
Маньшина Н.В. Доступный туризм: перспективы развития в России // Материалы Делового форуме гостиничного комплекса – Москва-2012 (г. Москва, 18 мая 2012 г.)
Доступный туризм (accessible Tourism) или, как его часто называют – туризм для всех (tourism for all), – один из самых динамично развивающихся сегментов туристского рыка. Это совершенно новое направление для российского туристического бизнеса. В России этот сегмент туристического рынка называют «туризмом для инвалидов», за рубежом используют термины – «туризм для всех», «доступный туризм», «инклюзивный туризм», «безбарьерный туризм».
Мировой рынок этого вида туризма растет с каждым годом.
По данным ООН, 15% мирового населения – инвалиды. В настоящее время около 80 млн людей с инвалидностью в Европе, и около 1 млрд по всему миру. В Российской федерации проживает 13,2 млн инвалидов и 1,5 млн детей-инвалидов.
11% всех туристических поездок в Европе и 7% – во всем мире совершают путешественники с особыми потребностями, чаще всего в компании членов семьи или друзей.
Только в Европе услуги доступного туризма могут быть востребованы у 127 млн граждан Евросоюза, что составляет более 27% европейского населения. Около 70% из них имеют финансовые и физические возможности путешествовать. Если учесть, что их сопровождают друзья, родственники и опекуны, предполагаемые доходы в этом секторе туризма превышают 80 млрд евро.
По мнению представителей российских обществ инвалидов, путешествовать хотели около 11% инвалидов с расходами от $ 1000 на одного человека.
Обзор мирового рынка доступного туризма позволяет определить его значение в современном мире для лечения, реабилитации, повышения уровня здоровья и пр
The document provides an overview of opportunities and challenges for international e-retailers looking to enter the Russian market. It finds that while Russia represents a large market with strong demand for foreign brands, success requires localizing operations to Russian preferences around language, payment methods, fulfillment, and customer service. Local partnerships are also important to gain market insights. While growth is predicted, political and economic instability and the country's large size pose challenges that require commitment to serving Russian customers.
This report analyzes travel distribution trends in Russia. It finds that while Russia has a large population and travel market, travel distribution is still developing with offline bookings dominating. However, online bookings are growing rapidly as internet usage increases. The economy is also growing, which is expanding the middle class and domestic tourism. Overall, the report provides insights into Russia's travel market to help companies better understand distribution opportunities in this emerging travel region. It examines sectors like airlines, hotels, and online travel agencies to assess where growth is occurring.
The Power of Globe Shopping in 2014 - Global BlueGlobal Blue
Globe shoppers are international tourists for whom shopping is a fundamental part of their travel experience. The advent of this new market segment has changed forever the face of retail and luxury, with a global business volume representing more than 48 bn Euros in 2013 just in Europe, Singapore, South Korea and Japan. Globe shoppers are a more powerful force than the Chinese market alone according to retail and luxury experts.
Russian Tourism, Russian Tourism Statistics, Russian Outbound Figures, Russian Inbound Figures, Profile of Russian Travellers, Russia, Tourism Reports, Country Reports, Population of Russia, Economic Indicators of Russia,UHNWI's of Russia, Major Tourism Events in Russia, Travel and Tourism Indicators of Russia
While consumers in the United States anticipate spending less on travel this summer, the growth of digital travel bookings remains healthy, according to Adobe Digital Index's "2016 Travel Report." In fact, online spending for flights and hotels is rivaling numbers seen in retail during the peak online shopping days of the holiday season.
eCommerce Index TOP100. Крупнейшие интернет-магазины РоссииData Insight
Открытый рейтинг интернет-магазинов. Данные по 100 крупнейшим магазинам: размеры, посещаемость, количество заказов, товарные категории, конверсия (в том числе по сегментам). А также новые данные: средний чек, доступность и скорость загрузки сайтов
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, driven by concerns over the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013 and its annexation of Crimea has thrown the economy into turmoil, with the possibility of recession.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined in March. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013 and its annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, with the stock market plunging and sanctions from Western nations.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.0 points in July to 91.1 after hitting a record low in May, but remains below year-ago levels. Consumers felt better about current finances but were downbeat on the future economy. High inflation remains a key concern despite a slight easing in expectations. Tighter monetary policy and new sanctions will likely weaken growth and sentiment going forward.
Russian consumer sentiment recovered slightly in June after hitting a record low in May, though sentiment remained lower than the previous year due to weak economic growth and Russia's actions in Crimea. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.2% in June, but was still 9.6% below the previous year's level. While purchasing intentions for household goods increased slightly, expectations for personal finances declined to a new low. Inflation expectations also rose to a new high, exacerbating consumers' concerns about high prices and interest rates on loans. The small recovery in sentiment in June was welcomed, but the economist noted that the economic backdrop remained gloomy.
The IMF recently reported that Russia has entered a recession and warned that economic growth will further contract if Western sanctions are increased. The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell sharply in May due to the impact of sanctions over Russia's actions in Crimea. Industrial production growth increased in April but overall economic growth remains weak, forecast at just 0.5% for 2014 compared to original predictions of 2.5% growth. Russia signed a $400 billion gas deal with China aimed at boosting infrastructure investment.
Chinese consumer sentiment fell sharply in June according to the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Index, which dropped 7.1% to its lowest level in nearly a year. Expectations for future business conditions hit a record low as consumers reported concerns about their personal finances and the economic outlook. While sentiment remained above the breakeven level, the decline signals caution about becoming overly optimistic on China's economic growth despite signs of stabilization.
The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined slightly in March driven by falls in both current and future expectations, following a rise to a 14-month high in February. The indicator fell 1.6% in March to 125.8 from 127.8 in February. Consumer sentiment was over 5% higher than a year ago. The decline was led by worsening views on personal finances and current business conditions, though optimism about longer-term business conditions increased. Regional sentiment declined in South and East India but rose in North, West and Central regions.
The consumer sentiment indicator in India fell to its lowest level since January as consumers were less optimistic about the future. The report was conducted before the election results that showed a clear mandate for Narendra Modi, though polls had pointed to his win. While perceptions about current business conditions deteriorated, consumers were hopeful the new Modi-led government would implement business friendly policies and improve employment conditions and prices. The stock investment indicator reached a series high as stock prices continued rising.
The document provides an analysis of the financial performance and position of Dabur India Ltd, an FMCG company, through various ratios and trends. It begins with an analysis of the Indian macroeconomic environment, including GDP growth, inflation trends, and performance of the industrial and FMCG sectors. It then examines Dabur's business segments, competitors, financial ratios, cash flows, and share price over time. Big data and its impact on FMCG companies is also discussed.
The document provides a weekly summary of global and domestic economic news and market performance for the week of April 25-29, 2016. Key points include:
- Indian equity markets were mixed as key sectors like automobiles and banks showed selective gains, while the overall markets exhibited signs of exhaustion after strong gains.
- Global markets remained stable as the US Fed did not change interest rates and the Bank of Japan maintained monetary stimulus.
- Domestic manufacturing activity declined to a 4-month low, putting pressure on the RBI to keep rates low. Eurozone factory output grew weakly.
- Chinese economic growth slowed slightly in April as manufacturing expansion was lower than expected, raising doubts about sustained recovery.
London, 4 March 2013 MNI INDIA CONSUMER SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. NEW DELHI TIME The MNI India Consumer Indicator increased to the highest level since December 2012, driven by a rise in both current and future expectations.
Highlights
• Economic slump has bottomed out – expect slow recovery ahead
• 2009-10 growth forecasts will be revised upwards by most as the year progresses
• Expectations of global growth resurgence fuels commodities and crude prices
• Dollar dives, rupee surges to 47 - more trouble for exporters ahead
• Fuel price deregulation on the cards
• But all is not well – and overheated stock markets need to cool a bit
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
The numbers all seem to be looking up, the stock markets all seem to be rising once again, and cheer is back. There is spring in the air. One wonders what happened suddenly to make everything so nice. Anyhow, things as predicted are improving – largely because of heavy government interventions internationally. The lower interest rates in India are also starting to have their impact – this was all predicted, as interest rate reductions take some time to play out. But what is also predicted is that things will take a few months more to stabilise - we estimate growth for this financial year to be an unexciting 6.6%.
The document summarizes the Indian economic landscape in May 2014. It discusses the landslide election victory of Narendra Modi's BJP party, which has driven stock markets and the rupee higher. Economic data showed a modest improvement with exports rising and the trade deficit narrowing. However, industrial production and manufacturing continued to contract in March, though at a slower pace. Consumer price inflation rose to its highest in three months in April, raising fears that a below-normal monsoon could push food prices up. The RBI left interest rates unchanged at 8% in April, focusing on reducing inflation to 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016.
The MNI India Business Sentiment is an authoritative indicator of the current pace of overall growth in India. It is based on a monthly poll of Indian executives and delivers an update on all the latest business trends.
The MNI India Consumer Indicator remained broadly stable in April at 125.2, with consumers in wait-and-see mode before the May 12 general election. The Current Indicator decreased slightly while the Expectations Indicator was stable. Only 40.8% of respondents thought economic growth would improve after the election, with many concerned about government stability and type of coalition. Sentiment improved in seven of ten cities but declined in Delhi, Pune, and Surat. Perceptions of current business conditions and expectations for future conditions increased in April.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2015Mercer Capital
The auto industry was hit hard by the Great Recession as unemployment rose and consumer spending declined. Auto sales tumbled and GM and Chrysler filed for bankruptcy. The industry began recovering in 2009 as disposable incomes rose and consumers were able to purchase durable goods like cars again. However, the auto dealer industry now faces pressures from increased regulation, shifting demand toward electric vehicles, and new entrants in the market. The document examines various macroeconomic indicators to analyze the current state and future outlook of the auto dealer industry.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and up-to-date intelligence on the state of the Indian economy. It provides a monthly snapshot of market activities as perceived by local consumers.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment serves as the basis for its own dedicated report, the MNI India Consumer Report. This monthly report delivers in-depth analysis of consumers‘ attitudes, perspectives and confidence across the country.
Written by our in-house team of economists, the MNI India Consumer Report blends the analysis of consumer confidence with relevant commentaries. It allows users to develop a thorough understanding of the Indian market and get direct access to consumers‘ views on the economy and its future.
Similar to MNI Russia Consumer_Report 2014-03 (20)
The Chicago Business Barometer fell slightly to 54.4 in August from 54.7 in July. While production and new orders softened, they remained above their 12-month averages and up from earlier in the year. Companies continued building inventories at the fastest pace since November 2014 in anticipation of stronger demand in the fourth quarter. Employment rose in August but remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month, and companies do not plan to expand their workforces in the near term.
The Chicago Business Barometer made a positive start to the third quarter, jumping above 50 after two
months in contraction, leaving economic activity expanding at the fastest pace since January.
- The Chicago Business Barometer remained below 50 in March, pointing to a slowdown in the US economy. The Barometer increased slightly to 46.3 but was still in contraction territory.
- Production increased in March but remained below 50, while new orders and order backlogs rose slightly but remained contracted. Employment also rose slightly.
- While some of the weakness may be due to weather and port strikes, the continued weakness in March suggests a wider slowdown. Purchasers expect orders to pick up in the next quarter but demand remained soft in the first quarter.
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 5.4 points to 60.8 in November from a one year high of 66.2 in October driven by a double digit drop in New Orders.
- The Chicago Business Barometer rose 5.7 points to 66.2 in October, the highest level in one year, fueled by a sharp gain in new orders, which increased to the highest since October 2013.
- Production and employment also strengthened, and order backlogs expanded faster, suggesting continued strong demand and solid economic growth.
- While inflationary pressures eased due to lower oil prices, the domestic economy is growing firmly according to the survey results.
Embargoed until 9:45 a.m. ET, 30 September 2014 The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.8 points to a still robust 60.5 in September, as Production and New Orders slowed while fims reported a record rise in stocks and a sharp increase in input prices.
Embargoed until 9:45 AM ET, 29 August 2014 The Chicago Business Barometer surged 11.7 points to 64.3 in August, regaining all the lost ground seen in July, and pointing to continued strength in the US economy.
Russian consumer sentiment increased slightly in July according to a consumer sentiment index. The index rose 2 points to 91.1 in July from 89.1 in June, though sentiment remains below levels from earlier in the year prior to Russia's annexation of Crimea. Consumers felt better about their current economic circumstances but were still downbeat about the future outlook. Pessimism is expected to continue as sanctions over Ukraine's crisis further impact Russia's already weakening economy.
The document is a monthly report by MNI Indicators on consumer sentiment in India for July 2014. Some key points:
- The MNI India Consumer Indicator fell slightly from June as consumers were less optimistic about current conditions and future expectations.
- Five of the six components that make up the indicator declined, with personal finances seeing the largest drop.
- Respondents were less confident about their current and future personal finances despite tax measures in the recent budget.
- Sentiment on real estate fell for the fifth straight month while the car purchase indicator rose after an extension of tax cuts.
Consumer sentiment in China increased slightly in July according to the Westpac MNI China CSI. The index rose 1.9% due to a sharp recovery in long-term business expectations, though confidence remained subdued. Four of the five components rose between June and July, with the largest increase seen in expectations for business conditions over the next five years. Bank deposits remained the preferred savings vehicle among consumers, followed by wealth management products and real estate.
The document is a monthly business report from MNI Indicators on business sentiment in Russia. Some key points:
- The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose in July to the highest level in three months, though it remains below levels at the start of 2014 due to economic weakness and geopolitical tensions from Russia's actions in Ukraine.
- Production conditions for large Russian companies slumped to a seven-month low in July, while new orders and export orders improved for the second straight month.
- Companies have been reducing inventories but the pace of decline has slowed, with the inventories indicator just below neutral levels. Input prices declined for the fourth month in a row.
- Access to credit
Russian business sentiment improved in July according to a survey by MNI Indicators, with the MNI Russia Business Indicator rising to 54.6 from 50.5 in June. While the initial impact of sanctions has faded, sentiment remains below levels at the start of 2014. New orders and export orders increased in July but production slumped to a seven-month low amid a weak economic backdrop. The outlook remains gloomy as high inflation and interest rates suggest the economy will barely grow in 2014, and further meaningful sanctions could push growth into negative territory.
The document summarizes India's economic landscape in July 2014. It discusses key points from the government's first budget, recent economic data, and the state of economic growth. The budget aimed to boost growth to 7-8% by promoting manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and reducing the fiscal deficit. However, it lacked details on subsidy reform and GST implementation. Recent data showed easing inflation but industrial growth remains subdued, with GDP at 4.6% in the last quarter. The government forecasts 5.4-5.9% growth this fiscal year but weaker external factors may limit growth to the lower end.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose 3.3% in June to 126.2, its highest level since February, as consumers were more confident about future economic growth and household incomes under the new government. All components of the indicator increased except durable buying conditions. Consumers were more optimistic about their personal finances, current and future business conditions, employment outlook, and inflation expectations. The interest rates expectations indicator and car purchase indicator also rose. However, confidence in the real estate market fell for the fourth straight month.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose to 126.2 in June, its highest level since February, as consumers were more confident about future economic growth and incomes under the new Modi-led government. All components of the indicator increased except durable buying conditions. Business conditions expectations for both the short-term and long-term hit record highs, with the government and its policies cited as reasons for optimism. Consumer inflation expectations fell to their lowest since December 2012. The chief economist commented that the rising sentiment is due to the recovery in the Indian economy and optimism around Prime Minister Modi's ability to revive growth.
The Chicago Business Barometer eased slightly in June but remained at a high level, pointing to a rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter following a sharp fall in the first quarter. While new orders fell from a seven-month high, production rose firmly above 70, close to its level in April. The strength in production and new orders underpinned the Barometer during the second quarter. Some respondents indicated they built inventories ahead of a possible strike by longshoremen at ports. The chief economist commented that while growth in the first half of the year will be slower than initially expected, upcoming data in the third quarter will be important in determining the timing of the first interest rate hike.
Russian business sentiment recovered slightly in June from a five month low in May, though it remained considerably lower than at the start of 2014 due to sanctions and economic slowdown. The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose to 50.5 in June from 49.2 in May but was 12.6% below June 2013 levels. Both production and new orders rose marginally in June while export orders increased but remained below the breakeven level of 50. The chief economist commented that while tensions in Ukraine continued, calmer rhetoric and actions on sanctions eased business concerns.
The document summarizes recent economic developments in India. Business confidence rose to its highest level since November 2012 due to optimism around the new Prime Minister's plans. Industrial production grew 3.4% in April, the highest in 13 months, led by manufacturing. However, growth remains subdued at 4.6% and below normal monsoon could push up food prices, challenging interest rate cuts. The new government aims to boost investment, manufacturing and foreign inflows to revive the economy.
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Discovering Delhi - India's Cultural Capital.pptxcosmo-soil
Delhi, the heartbeat of India, offers a rich blend of history, culture, and modernity. From iconic landmarks like the Red Fort to bustling commercial hubs and vibrant culinary scenes, Delhi's real estate landscape is dynamic and diverse. Discover the essence of India's capital, where tradition meets innovation.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete GuideDaniel
Cryptocurrency is digital money that operates independently of a central authority, utilizing cryptography for security. Unlike traditional currencies issued by governments (fiat currencies), cryptocurrencies are decentralized and typically operate on a technology called blockchain. Each cryptocurrency transaction is recorded on a public ledger, ensuring transparency and security.
Cryptocurrencies can be used for various purposes, including online purchases, investment opportunities, and as a means of transferring value globally without the need for intermediaries like banks.
The Rise and Fall of Ponzi Schemes in America.pptxDiana Rose
Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
Madhya Pradesh, the "Heart of India," boasts a rich tapestry of culture and heritage, from ancient dynasties to modern developments. Explore its land records, historical landmarks, and vibrant traditions. From agricultural expanses to urban growth, Madhya Pradesh offers a unique blend of the ancient and modern.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
3. 3MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Contents
4 Editorial
6 Executive Summary
12 Economic Landscape
16 Indicators
17 MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
24 Personal Finances
26 Business Conditions
29 Durable Buying Conditions
30 Employment Outlook
31 Prices Sentiment
34 Interest Rates Expectations
35 Real Estate Investment
38 Car Purchase
40 Consumer Indicator - Regions
43 Consumer Indicator - Income Groups
44 What The Panel Said
46 Data Tables
54 Methodology
4. Spitzzeile Titel4
Russia’s growth in recent years has been driven by
consumption at the expense of investment. It has
relied on its vast reserves of gas and other
commodities for years, while its industrial base has
been left to wither.
Counting the Cost...
5. 5MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
I’ve written previously that Russia needs to change its
growth model. Russia’s growth in recent years has
been driven by consumption at the expense of
investment. It has relied on its vast reserves of gas
and other commodities for years, while its industrial
base has been left to wither.
With growth of just 1.3% in 2013 and productivity at
weak levels, even the government finally recognised
that the current model wasn’t working.
In recent years, Russia has tried to present itself as an
investable country and a place to do business.
Holding the Sochi Olympics this year and the World
Cup in 2018 would show the world that Russia is
open for business and help to attract the investment
it badly needs.
Whatever the rights and wrongs of Russia’s lightning
annexation of Crimea, it has wiped out any hopes of
attracting foreign investment and potentially set back
Russia’s economy years. Our consumer survey shows
sentiment falling more than 10% since the start of the
year. Our business survey evidence this month
showed sentiment among Russia’s largest companies
fell sharply in March. Barring a resolution in the
situation, it is difficult to see anything but a further
worsening in April as well.
And having previously expected growth to maybe
increase a little this year from 2013’s paltry gain, this
is now looking unlikely, with the possibility that the
Russian economy could at some point slip into
recession. Should actions against Russia from the US
and EU escalate further to include wider financial and
trade sanctions, then it will cause serious harm to the
economy especially in the short-term.
And if the EU is determined to seek alternative sources
of energy and wean itself off of its dependence on
Russia’s vast gas and oil supplies, then Russia’s long-
term growth potential could be even lower.
Philip Uglow
Chief Economist
MNI Indicators
6. MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 20146
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to the
lowest level since the survey started in March 2013
as worries over household finances, short-term
business conditions and the spending climate all
rose sharply.
Executive Summary
7. 7MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to the lowest
level since the survey started in March 2013 as
worries over household finances, short-term business
conditions and the spending climate, all rose sharply.
This was the second consecutive monthly fall and left
confidence down more than 10% since the start of
the year as concerns over Russia’s actions in Ukraine
have mounted. Asset freezes and travel bans have
raised fears of wider sanctions against the country,
leaving consumers very uncertain about their
economic circumstances, denting sentiment
significantly.
The Consumer Indicator declined 5.4% on the month
to 89.1 in March from 94.1 in February.
The Current Indicator fell by 9.3% to 89.4 from 98.6
in February, following a pick-up in sentiment in
January in the run up to the Olympics. The
deterioration in the Current Indicator was led by
Current Personal Finances which declined 8.9% on
the month to a series low of 79.5. Durable Buying
Conditions also fell sharply to 99.3 from 109.9 in
February, as the current economic and political
situation hit discretionary spending. The Expectations
Indicator decreased to 88.8 in March from 91.2 in
February.
The fall in consumer confidence in March was led by
higher income households who likely have more to
lose from the current tensions in Ukraine which have
caused a sharp fall in the stock market and the
currency.
Perceptions about business conditions in a year
deteriorated sharply, as fears of further sanctions on
Russian businesses grew. Current and longer term
business conditions remained in contraction.
In spite of the current situation with Ukraine and the
economic downturn, the Employment Outlook
Indicator, improved for the first time in three months.
Concerns over the current price level increased slightly
in March, while expectations for the future remained
at an elevated level.
The Real Estate Investment Indicator declined to
110.0 in March from 111.4 in February, as a growing
number of respondents said that it was not a good
time to purchase a house.
The Car Purchase Indicator declined in March after
rising for two consecutive months, driven by a decline
in Car Purchase Expectations and a small rise in
Expectations for Gasoline Prices.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator - Components
PersonalFinance:
Current
PersonalFinances:
Expectations
DurableBuying
Conditions
BusinessConditionsin1
Year
BusinessConditionsin5
Years
0
100
8. 8 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
All Russia - Overview
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 99.3 94.1 89.1 - series low 94.2 -5.0 -5.4%
Current Indicator 102.0 98.6 89.4 - series low 96.7 -9.2 -9.3%
Expectations Indicator 97.5 91.2 88.8 - series low 92.5 -2.4 -2.6%
Personal Finance: Current 99.3 87.3 79.5 - series low 88.7 -7.8 -8.9%
Personal Finance: Expected 101.2 96.3 96.3 Jan-14 - 97.9 0.0 0.0%
Business Condition: 1 Year 95.1 87.8 79.4 - series low 87.4 -8.4 -9.6%
Business Condition: 5 Year 96.4 89.4 90.7 Jan-14 - 92.2 1.3 1.5%
Durable Buying Conditions 104.7 109.9 99.3 - Dec-13 104.6 -10.6 -9.7%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 100.3 97.5 99.2 Jan-14 - 99.0 1.7 1.7%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 112.1 111.4 110.0 - Dec-13 111.2 -1.4 -1.2%
Car Purchase Indicator 83.3 88.3 85.1 - Jan-14 85.6 -3.2 -3.7%
Employment Outlook Indicator 87.2 86.5 92.9 Dec-13 - 88.9 6.4 7.4%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 136.9 140.9 139.2 - Jan-14 139.0 -1.7 -1.2%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 69.4 74.4 76.3 Oct-13 - 73.4 1.9 2.5%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 115.9 122.6 119.2 - Jan-14 119.2 -3.4 -2.7%
10. All Russia - Records
2013- Current
Minimum Maximum Mean Median
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 89.1 99.9 97.0 97.5
Current Indicator 89.4 102.0 97.0 98.2
Expectations Indicator 88.8 100.3 97.0 98.4
Personal Finance: Current 79.5 103.2 94.6 95.3
Personal Finance: Expected 96.3 109.2 102.7 102.4
Business Condition: 1 Year 79.4 101.5 94.3 95.7
Business Condition: 5 Year 88.7 98.0 94.1 95.7
Durable Buying Conditions 92.9 109.9 99.4 97.8
Current Business Conditions Indicator 89.6 100.3 96.3 95.9
Real Estate Investment Indicator 105.3 113.0 108.7 108.0
House Price Expectations 117.9 140.1 127.3 124.9
House Buying Sentiment 87.3 109.8 98.6 98.1
House Selling Sentiment 97.4 102.3 99.8 99.5
Car Purchase Indicator 81.0 88.4 85.5 86.1
Car Purchase expectations 98.2 110.5 104.7 105.5
Price of Gasoline expectations 128.6 137.7 133.7 133.8
Employment Outlook Indicator 86.5 100.5 96.6 98.2
Inflation Expectations Indicator 130.7 140.9 137.1 136.9
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 69.4 86.0 78.3 76.3
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 111.1 123.3 117.0 115.6
10 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
11. Russian consumer
sentiment fell to the
lowest level since the
survey started in
March 2013...
...as worries over household finances, short-term business conditions and
the spending climate, all rose sharply.
12. Spitzzeile Titel12
Russia’s annexation of Crimea has thrown the
country into economic turmoil. The stock market
has plunged and the rouble has come under intense
pressure, forcing the central bank of Russia to raise
its key policy rate from 5.5% to 7%.
Economic Landscape
13. 13MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Russia’s annexation of Crimea has thrown the country
into economic turmoil. The stock market has plunged
and the rouble has come under increased pressure,
forcing the central bank of Russia to raise its key
policy rate from 5.5% to 7%. Forecasters are now
rapidly revising down forecasts of growth for 2014,
with some highlighting the possibility that Russia
could slip into recession. Russia’s Central Bank
governor expects growth of sub 1% in 2014. Credit
rating agencies have downgraded Russia’s outlook to
negative over the impact of sanctions from the United
States and the European Union.
Economic data has been mixed with manufacturing
output posting the highest growth in three months.
The trade surplus showed an improvement from the
previous year but fell on the month, due to the
depreciation in the rouble.
Lowest economic growth since 2009
Following meagre growth in 2013, growth has
remained extremely weak at the beginning of 2014.
Russia‘s GDP grew by just 0.3% on the year in
February, marginally up from 0.1% in January. The
Economy Ministry anticipates GDP growth of around
zero for the first quarter as a whole.
According to the latest data from the Federal Service
of State Statistics, economic growth accelerated in
the fourth quarter of 2013 while the full year growth
was left unchanged at 1.3% in 2013, down from
3.4% in 2012 to be the lowest since 2009. Growth
remained reliant on consumer spending although this
failed to make up for sagging investment and a drop
in global demand for oil and natural gas.
Private consumption expenditure remained relatively
firm at 4.7% in 2013, but considerably down from
the 7.9% rate seen in 2012. Government consumption
declined 0.1%, following growth of 4.2% in 2012,
while investment growth shrank sharply to 0.3% in
2012 from 6.4% a year earlier.
On the positive side, exports rose 3.8% in 2013,
recovering from growth of just 1.4% in 2012. Imports
of goods and services were less of a drag on the
economy as they increased 5.9%, lower than the
8.8% reported in 2012.
According to the economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev,
Russia’s 2014 economic growth is likely to be close to
2013’s level if economic trends seen early this year
remain intact. Growth forecasts will be revised in April
from the previously published expectation of 2.5%
this year.
Central Bank governor Elvira Nabiullina recently
revised the growth rates for 2014 to below 1% from
1.5-1.8% previously.
Industrial production expands in February
Industrial production increased 2.1% on the year in
February, the highest growth in three months following
a decline of 0.2% in January. The latest increase was
driven by manufacturing output which grew by 3.4%
in February after remaining flat in January.
In spite of the cold weather, utilities output continued
to decline, although by a smaller 0.3% on the year,
compared with 3.9% in the previous month. Mining
Economic Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP Growth y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
14. 14 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
and quarrying output rose by 0.8% compared with a
growth of 0.9% in February.
Car sales continue to decline
In February, 206,476 cars were sold, 2% down from
the same month a year earlier, according to the
Association of European Businesses (AEB). Russia is
the second largest market for cars in Europe and last
year saw the first annual fall in sales in four years.
The AEB remains cautious about the outlook and
have forecasted sales of 2.73 million in 2014. The
government offered cheap credit on cars to propel the
car industry in the second half of 2013, barring which
car sales would have been even worse. It is possible
the scheme could be launched again should sales
disappoint in 2014.
Russia plans to support its struggling auto industry
with subsidies of up to 271 billion roubles ($8 billion)
in the three years to 2016 for research and
development, to support jobs and to compensate for
some costs related to meeting tighter exhaust emission
standards.
According to the deputy industry minister, Russian
car sales may fall between 2.8% and 6.5% this year
due to a weaker rouble and falling oil prices.
Higher inflation in March
Consumer price inflation rose sharply to 6.9% in
March from 6.2% in February. Food prices rose by
8.4% from a year earlier, compared with 6.9% in the
previous month.
The central bank is targeting an inflation rate of 5%
this year, after overshooting its 5-6% range in 2013.
The central bank has said that it will not lower
borrowing costs until atleast June as inflationary risks
remain high and a slowdown in inflation is possible
only in the second half of 2014.
Inflation
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
CPI Growth y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
Car Sales
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Car and Light commercial vehicles y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
The recent fall in the rouble has made the central
bank’s job far more difficult. Russia imports a large
amount of consumer goods and the depreciation will
push up prices over the coming months.
Monetary policy: key rate increased
The central bank raised its key rate – the one-week
repo rate at which it lends money to financial
institutions – to 7% from 5.5% at a surprise meeting
on March 3 aimed at limiting inflationary risks that
stemmed from the rouble weakening to an all-time
low.
15. 15MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
The central bank left all interest rates unchanged at
its scheduled meeting on March 14 and said it will
maintain a tight monetary policy stance well into the
foreseeable future. While the cental bank framed the
surprise tighening in policy as a move to offset the
The Economy Ministry has forecast that the net capital
outflow during the first quarter will be $65-70 billion.
That compares with an outflow of $62.7 billion during
the whole of 2013. The Economy Minister Alexei
Ulyukayev ascertains that worsening political relations
is a negative factor for economic growth and
correspondingly influences the capital outflow.
Trade surplus narrows in February
Russia‘s trade surplus narrowed to $17.6 billion in
February, down from $18.9 billion a month earlier but
up from $15.3 billion in the same month last year, as
imports fell by the most since 2009 due to the sharp
depreciation of the rouble.
Exports stood at $41.8 billion in February, broadly
unchanged from a year earlier and imports stood at
$24.2 billion, down by 9.1% on the year.
inflationary impact of the weaker rouble, a key aim
was to try and avert a damaging run on the currency.
Deputy Economy Minister Andrey Klepach said a
temporary increase in the key rate would not hurt the
economy, but rouble depreciation would increase
inflation.
The bank has made it clear that its top priority is to
limit the inflationary implication of exchange rate
dynamics and to support financial stability. Low
inflation would make borrowing more affordable and
lead to a road of longer-term investment, which in
turn would support economic growth.
Depreciation in the rouble
So far this year, the rouble has been one of the worst
performing emerging market currencies. It fell to an all
time low of 36.6 versus the US Dollar on March 14,
following Russia’s actions in Ukraine and fears of an
escalation in the situation.
The central bank spent $10 billion of its reserves on a
single day on March 3 to prop up the rouble‘s sudden
fall and has indicated that it would make major
interventions due to the increased volatility. The bank
has spent $23 billion in currency markets in the first
two weeks of March alone, although there is no
imminent cash danger as the bank has $440 billion in
foreign exchange reserves.
Even before tensions intensified in Ukraine, the rouble
had been weakening. The Russian authorities denied
engaging in a deliberate policy to devalue the currency
in order to raise export revenue or to provide a windfall
gain for the state budget. Currency turmoil has been
seen throughout most emerging market economies,
although the move in Russia to a fully free floating
currency has meant reduced currency intervention
from the central bank which has put further pressure
on the rouble.
16. MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 201416
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell for the
second consecutive month and left confidence well
below the start of the year as concerns over Russia’s
actions in Ukraine have mounted.
Indicators
17. 17MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to the lowest
level since the survey started in March 2013 as
worries over household finances, short-term business
conditions and the spending climate, all rose sharply.
This was the second consecutive monthly fall and left
confidence down more than 10% since the start of
the year as concerns over Russia’s actions in Ukraine
have mounted. Asset freezes and travel bans have
raised fears of wider sanctions against the country,
leaving consumers very uncertain about their
economic circumstances, denting sentiment
significantly.
The Consumer Indicator declined 5.4% on the month
to 89.1 in March from 94.1 in February. A reading
below 100 indicates increasing negativity among
consumers, while values above show increasing
positivity. Consumer sentiment has remained below
the 100 breakeven level since the series began in
March 2013 but the first quarter of 2014 was the
weakest on record.
The Current Indicator fell by 9.3% to 89.4 from 98.6
in February, following a pick-up in sentiment in
January in the run up to the Olympics. The
deterioration in the Current Indicator was led by
Current Personal Finances which declined 8.9% on
the month to a series low of 79.5. Durable Buying
Conditions fell to 99.3 from 109.9 in February, as the
current economic and political situation hit
discretionary spending.
89.1
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Tumbles amid Tension
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Mar-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
MNI Russia
Consumer Indicator 97.2 99.4 94.8 95.7 99.3 94.1 89.1
Current 93.8 99.2 94.3 95.7 102.0 98.6 89.4
Expectations 99.4 99.5 95.1 95.7 97.5 91.2 88.8
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Current and Expected Indicators
Current
Expectations
18. 18 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
89.1 89.4
88.8
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
All Russia
95.4
97.7
93.8
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
Central Russia
100.1
96.3
102.6
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
West Siberian
73.0
84.7
65.2
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
Volga
80.1
78.4
81.3
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
Urals
84.4
75.8
90.1
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
North Caucasus
19. 19MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
The Expectations Indicator decreased to 88.8 in
March from 91.2 in February. Business Conditions in
One Year fell sharply by 9.6% to 79.4, while Business
Conditions in Five Years increased slightly to 90.7
from 89.4 previously. The third component of the
Expectations Indicator, Expected Personal Finances,
which has trended downwards, remained stable and
was below the 100 breakeven level for the second
month in a row.
Regions
Consumer sentiment declined in 9 out of the 12
regions surveyed, with sentiment rising only in the
East Siberian, Kaliningrad and Northern regions.
Respondents from the West Siberian region were the
most optimistic, although less positive than February
as consumer confidence fell by 6.2% to 100.1 from
106.7.
Confidence declined the most in the Volga region,
making the region the least optimistic, as the
Consumer Indicator fell to 73.0 from 87.8 in February.
Large declines were witnessed in all five components
that make up the Consumer Indicator, apart from
Business Conditions in Five Years which increased.
Age
Consumer sentiment fell for the second consecutive
month among the youngest age group (18-34 year
olds). The Consumer Indicator declined to a series
low of 90.1 from 96.2 in February. The Current
Indicator fell by almost 12% to 91.8 while the
Expectations Indicator posted a smaller fall of 2.2%
to 89.0.
Consumer sentiment was lowest among the middle
age range in March, where the Consumer Indicator
declined 5.2% to 87.3 from 92.0 in February. All five
components of the Consumer Indicator fell apart from
Expected Personal Finances. The largest fall was
seen in expectations about Business Conditions in a
Year which hit a series low. Consumers were also
-1.6
0.0
-1.8
0.3
-2.3
Personal Finance: Current
Personal Finance: Expected
Business Condition: 1 Year
Business Condition: 5 Year
Durable Buying Conditions
Consumer Indicator: Contribution to Monthly Change
(% pt.)
20. 20 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
highly dissatisfied with their Current Personal
Finances which impacted their willingness to buy
large household items.
Consumer sentiment among the oldest age range of
55-65 year olds remained broadly stable at 90.3
compared with 90.9 in February. Consumers were
less optimistic about Business Conditions in Five
Years and did not see it as a good time to purchase
large household items. Personal Finances improved,
although they remained below the 100 breakeven
mark.
Income
The fall in confidence in March was led by higher
income households who likely have more to lose from
the current tensions in Ukraine which have caused a
sharp fall in the stock market and the currency.
For households with an average income under RUB
480,000 per annum, sentiment declined for the
second month in a row to a series low of 87.6 from
89.8 in the previous month. For households with an
average income over RUB 480,000 per annum,
consumer sentiment declined significantly by 8.8% to
91.5 in March from 100.4 in February, the lowest
since the start of the survey in March 2013.
Consumer confidence was almost 9% down on the
year among low income households, and was 9.5%
down for higher income households. In March, it was
the first time since September that the Consumer
Indicator fell more in higher income households than
in lower income households.
89.1
90.1
87.3
90.3
All 18-34 35-54 55-64
Consumer Indicator: Age Groups
21. 21MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
87.6
90.5
85.7
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
91.5
90.3
92.3
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Income Groups
22. 22 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Main Cities
The Consumer Indicator declined in six out of the 10
major cities surveyed in March and hit a series low in
five of them.
In Moscow, consumer sentiment remained broadly
stable at 96.9, compared with 96.2 in February,
when it hit a series low. The small gain on the month
made Moscow the most optimistic city in March. The
Current Indicator remained broadly stable around the
100 mark, while the Expectations Indicator increased
by 1.1% but remained in contraction.
Moscow consumers were more confident about their
Personal Finances compared with the previous month
but fewer found it a good time to buy a large household
item. Consumers were less optimistic about Business
Conditions in One and Five Years, with the latter
hitting a record low.
Consumer sentiment fell in Saint Petersburg, the
second largest city of Russia, for the second
consecutive month. The Consumer Indicator declined
to 90.7 from 94.6 in February. Much of the decline
was led by Current Personal Finances which fell more
than 10% on the month. Consumers were also less
confident about future business conditions. The
Durable Buying Conditions Indicator remained in
contraction and fell to the lowest since November.
In Novosibirsk, the third most populous city in Russia,
consumer sentiment rose to 88.5 after falling for three
consecutive months, hitting a series low in February
of 84.2. Respondents were more optimistic about
both their Current and Future Expectations. More
consumers thought it was a good time to buy a large
household item as the indicator rose by 13.5% on the
month. Business Conditions in One Year declined, but
those for Five Years hit a series high.
Samara was the least optimistic city in March. The
Consumer Indicator fell to a series low of 84.1
compared with 86.5 in February. Consumer sentiment
has trended downwards since June 2013 and the loss
90
95
100
105
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator - Moscow
100.6
94.4 91.6
101.1
90.3 91.7
109.7
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components - Moscow
in sentiment in March put the indicator well below the
level seen a year ago.
23. 23MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
80
85
90
95
100
105
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator - Saint Petersburg
70
80
90
100
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator - Novosibirsk
85.9
94.0
78.1
105.0
79.6
97.3
93.8
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components - Saint Petersburg
87.6 89.1
77.4
97.4
72.0
97.7 97.7
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components - Novosibirsk
24. MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 201424
Current Personal Finances decelerated sharply in
March while consumers’ expectations about the future
remained in contraction.
The Current Personal Finances Indicator, which
measures whether the financial situation of a
household is better, the same, or worse than a year
ago, declined by almost 9% to hit a series low of 79.5
compared with 87.3 in February.
The percentage of respondents who reported that
their current financial situation improved compared
with a year ago decreased for the second month in a
row to 25.7% from 30.7% in February. Those
reporting financial conditions were the same as last
year fell to 7.5% from 13.4% previously while those
reporting a worsening increased from almost 56% to
66.7%.
A growing number of respondents said that the
downturn in their finances was due to their current
employment situation. Russia’s two largest banks,
Sberbank and VTB, have announced significant cuts
in their headcount and salaries of staff in order to
improve business efficiency and cut costs. General
comments from respondents have also pointed to the
negative impact from the current tensions in Ukraine.
Expected Personal Finances, which measures whether
households think their finances will be better in a
year‘s time, remained flat at 96.3, below the 100
breakeven mark.
79.5
Personal Finances
Current Finances Sink
Personal Finances
Mar-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Current 94.7 91.0 92.0 92.5 99.3 87.3 79.5
Expectations 109.2 101.2 101.7 101.9 101.2 96.3 96.3
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Personal Finances
Current
Expectations
25.7%
7.5%
66.7%
0.1%
Current Financial Situation Compared with 1 Year
Ago (% of Households)
Much Better
A Little Better
Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
25. MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014 25
0.1%
1.9%
97.9%
Daily Expenses
(% of Households)
13.0%
86.1%
1.0%
Monthly Household Income Used for Savings
(% of Households)
94.0%
4.8%
1.2%
Monthly Household Income Used for Large Loan
Repayment (% of Households)
48.7%
51.3%
Monthly Household Income Used for Investments
(% of Households)
How Households Spend their
Money
0% - 29% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
0% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
0% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
0% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
50% - 69% of Income
70% - 100% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
30% -49% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
26. MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 201426
Increasing concerns that wider sanctions could be
levied against Russian businesses prompted a sharp
fall in short term expectations for business conditions.
Current and longer term business conditions remained
in contraction, below the 100 breakeven level.
Expectations for Business Conditions in a Year
declined sharply to a series low of 79.4 from 87.8 in
February. The majority of the respondents expected
business condtions to deteriorate, with the proportion
increasing from 54.6% to 66.7%. The proportion who
thought conditions would be better fell from 30.3% to
25.5%. There was also a significant decline in the
proportion of respondents who felt business conditions
would remain the same from 12.6% to 5.2%.
Respondents cited government policy, economic
development and income as the main reasons for the
deterioration in their outlook. General comments also
cited the current tensions in Ukraine and their negative
impact on the economy.
The Current Business Conditions Indicator, which
measures respondents’ views on the state of business
compared with a year ago, increased to 99.2
compared with 97.5 in February. Consumer sentiment
about the current business environment has remained
weak since the start of the survey in March 2013 and
the only time it has been above the breakeven level
was in January, a possible short-term boost in the
run-up to the Sochi Olympics.
99.2
Business Conditions
Short Term Expectations Worsen
Business Conditions
Mar-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Current 89.6 94.5 97.4 94.9 100.3 97.5 99.2
In 1 Year 92.3 101.5 94.9 94.4 95.1 87.8 79.4
In 5 Years 96.8 95.8 88.7 90.8 96.4 89.4 90.7
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Current Business Conditions Indicator
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Expected Business Conditions
1 Year
5 Years
27. MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014 27
Business Conditions in 1 Year
Selected Reasons
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Resource/Environment
Social Stability/ Security
Events
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Resource/Environment
Social Stability/ Security
Events
10.0%
20.9%
35.9%
5.6%
19.2%
8.4%
All Russia, Reasons for Better
21.3%
24.8%
26.4%
9.9%
13.9%
3.8%
All Russia, Reasons for Worse
37.0%
26.8%
63.0%
73.2%
Feb-14 Mar-14
All Russia
The proportion of respondents who believed that
business conditions were “excellent” or “good”
remained broadly stable at 9.4%. The majority
continued to say that business conditions were “only
fair”, and this proportion increased to 73.7% from
72.2% in the previous month, while the percentage of
respondents reporting conditions were “poor” or “very
poor” fell from 14.1% to 11.1%.
Longer term, Expectations for Business Conditions in
Five Years increased slightly following a sharp decline
in February. It rose to 90.7 from 89.4, about 6.3%
below the same period a year ago.
Better
Worse
28. MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 201428
Business Conditions in 1 Year
Regions
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberian
Reasons for Better
(% of Respondents)
29.5%
19.7% 21.5%
4.6%
51.3%
70.5%
80.3% 78.5%
95.4%
48.7%
Central North Caucasus Urals Volga West Siberian
Business Expectations: Worse or Better?
(% of Respondents)
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberian
Reasons for Worse
(% of Respondents)
Better
Worse
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Resource/Environment
Social Stability/ Security
Events
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Resource/Environment
Social Stability/ Security
Events
29. 29MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
The Durable Buying Conditions Indicator, which
measures whether respondents think it is a good or
bad time to buy a large household good, declined
sharply for the first time in four months to the lowest
since December.
The indicator fell to 99.3 from 109.9 in February, a
fall of 9.7% on the month, as the tension in Ukraine
coupled with the current economic malaise saw
consumers rein in their discretionary spending. Many
respondents pointed to the high cost of household
durable goods and that they could not afford to
purchase more.
The proportion of survey participants saying it was a
“good time” to buy a large household durable declined
to 43.1% from 48% in February, while the proportion
of those saying it was a “bad time” or “very bad time”
also increased significantly from 27.2% to 44.4%.
There was a decline in the percentage of respondents
who felt there had been “no change” to 11.1% from
23.3% in February.
Durable Buying Conditions
Decline Significantly
Durable Buying Conditions
Mar-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Durable Buying
Conditions 92.9 107.4 96.6 98.9 104.7 109.9 99.3
99.3
90
95
100
105
110
115
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Durable Buying Conditions
43.1%
11.1%
44.4%
1.4%
Is It a Good or Bad Time to Buy Large Household
Goods? (% of Households)
Excellent Time
Good Time
Neutral
Bad Time
Very Bad Time
Don‘t Know/No Answer
30. 30 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
The Employment Outlook indicator which measures
opinion on the outlook of the employment market over
the next 12 months, increased to 92.9 in March from
86.5 in February. It has remained in contraction every
month since the survey started, with the exception of
March and October 2013.
Of the 12 regions surveyed, respondents from Central
Black Earth were the most perturbed about the future
employment situation, as the indicator dropped for the
fourth month to hit a series low of 68.1. Respondents
from the Volga region were highly optimistic about
their employment situation as compared with the
previous month with only 9.1% of them expecting the
Employment Outlook to worsen as opposed to almost
40% in the previous month. The most optimistic
respondents were from the Far Eastern region where
the indicator was above the breakeven mark.
Official statistics showed that the unemployment rate
remained steady in February at 5.6%, unchanged
from the previous two months. Results from the
March edition of our sister survey on Russian
Businesses showed that majority of the companies
reported that the current number of employees they
had was just right and were not hiring currently,
although they were a little more optimistic about
future employment conditions.
Survey participants forecasting an improvement in the
employment market totalled 5.4%, down from 6% in
February; while the proportion of those forecasting a
worsening also declined from 26.2% to 17.3%. The
majority of respondents forecasted no change in the
employment situation.
Employment Outlook
Highest Since December
Employment Outlook
Mar-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Employment
Outlook 100.5 100.4 98.1 98.2 87.2 86.5 92.9
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Employment Outlook Indicator
5.4%
75.1%
15.1%
2.2%
2.1%
Employment Outlook for the Next 12 Months
(% of Households)
92.9
Much Better
A Little Better
Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
31. 31MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Concerns over the current price level increased slightly
in March, while expectations for the future remained
at an elevated level.
The Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator increased for
the second month in a row after hitting a record low
in January. The indicator rose by 2.5% to 76.3 in
March from 74.4 in February. A figure below 100
indicates wider dissatisfaction with current prices,
and the further below 100, the greater the
dissatisfaction. The indicator has remained below the
breakeven level since the survey started. In spite of
the latest monthly gain, the Current Prices Satisfaction
Indicator averaged 73.3 in the first quarter, the lowest
since the survey started.
Consumer price inflation rose to 6.9% in March, up
from 6.2% in February. Food price inflation accelerated
to 8.4% from 6.9% in the previous month. The central
bank is targeting inflation of 5% in 2014, but expects
the recent weakening of the rouble to fuel inflation
further.
The Inflation Expectations Indicator, which measures
whether respondents think prices will be higher or
lower in 12 months’ time, has trended upwards since
the survey started in March 2013. It eased slightly to
139.2 from a series high of 140.9 in February.
The majority of respondents, 70.3%, believed prices
would be higher in a year’s time, while those saying
prices would be unchanged rose to 28.5% from
26.4%. Only 0.5% of respondents thought prices
would be lower in a year’s time.
Prices Sentiment
Remains Worrisome
Prices Sentiment
Mar-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Satisfaction with
Current Prices 80.6 80.5 73.5 71.8 69.4 74.4 76.3
Inflation Expec-
tations 130.7 139.7 136.8 138.2 136.9 140.9 139.2
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Satisfaction with Current Prices
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Inflation Expectations Indicator
76.3
32. 32 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
2.6%
55.9%
32.5%
8.8%
0.2%
Satisfaction with Current Prices
(% of Households)
Very Satisfied
Quite Satisfied
So So
Not Very Satisfied
Not Satisfied At All
Don‘t Know/No Answer
8.6%
61.8%
28.5%
0.5% 0.6%
Inflation Expectations in 12 Months
(% of Households)
Much Higher
A Little Higher
Same
A Little Lower
Much Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Since November, most respondents thought prices
would rise between 11-24% over the next year, but
this changed in March. The proportion of respondents
who thought they would rise by over 25% increased
significantly and represented the majority, likely due
to fears that the depreciation in the currency will push
up inflation.
Regions
All regions showed wide dissatisfaction with the
current level of prices. Among the five major regions,
the Central region showed the greatest dissatisfaction,
although the indicator improved for the first time
following six monthly declines.
Respondents from the Volga region had the highest
inflationary expectations over the next 12 months as
almost all the respondents thought prices would be
higher in March.
Prices Sentiment
Regions
33. 33MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
76.3
71.4 73.3
77.4
86.9
92.1
All Russia Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West
Siberian
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
139.2 142.4
124.8
143.0
169.5
116.3
All Russia Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West
Siberian
Inflation Expectations Indicator
All Russia Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West
Siberian
Satisfaction with Current Prices
(% of Households)
Very Satisfied
Quite Satisfied
Neutral
Not Very Satisfied
Not Satisfied At All
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberian
Expected Change in Prices in 1 Year
(% of Households)
Much Higher
A Little Higher
Same
A Little Lower
Much Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
34. 34 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Expectations for Interest Rates on Car and Home
Loans declined in March compared with the previous
month and the majority of the respondents continued
to expect them to stay at the same level next year.
The Interest Rate Expectations Indicator fell 2.7% to
119.2 from 122.6 in February, bang in line with the
three month average.
The indicator has remained above 100 since the
survey started in March. A reading above 100
indicates more households expected interest rates to
rise over the coming year, while a figure below 100
means more households expected to see a fall.
In an emergency meeting on March 3, the Central
Bank raised its key rate to 7% from 5.5% previously.
The decision to hike rates was a response to
heightened volatility in financial markets and aimed at
stemming the fall in the exchange rate and its impact
on inflation.
Survey participants forecasting that interest rates on
home and car loans would be higher in a year’s time
fell from 37.7% to 35.5%. Those forecasting lower
rates remained broadly stable at 3.8% compared with
3.6% previously. The percentage of respondents
expecting interest rates would be the same increased
to 56% from 54.1%.
Interest Rate Expectations
Decline in March
Interest Rate Expectations
Mar-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Interest Rate
Expectations 120.6 115.6 115.5 114.9 115.9 122.6 119.2
119.2
100
110
120
130
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Interest Rate Expectations Indicator
6.9%
28.6%
56.0%
3.8%
4.7%
Expected Change in Interest Rate in 1 year
(% of Households)
Much Higher
A Little Higher
Same
A Little Lower
Much Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
35. 35MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
The Real Estate Investment Indicator declined to
110.0 in March from 111.4 in the previous month, the
lowest since December 2013, as a growing number of
respondents said that it was not a good time to
purchase a house.
The Real Estate Investment Indicator is comprised of
three sub-indicators to gauge sentiment on the
housing market; House Price Expectations, House
Buying Sentiment and House Selling Sentiment.
House Price Expectations increased slightly to 140.1
in March from 139.0 in February. Price Expectations
have risen sharply since November and they are over
12% above the same month last year. A value above
100 indicates more people expect prices to increase
in the next six months.
The percentage of respondents who said prices will
go up in the next six months increased from 68.4% to
69.4%, while those saying prices would go down fell
to 0.2%, the lowest since the survey started in March
2013. Those who said prices would “stay the same”
remained broadly stable at 26% in March.
House Buying Sentiment, a measure of whether it is a
good time in the next six months to buy a house,
declined for the second month in a row, and by a
sharp 9.8%. Sentiment fell to a series low of 87.3
from 96.8 in February.
The third component, House Selling Sentiment, is a
measure of whether it is a good time in the next six
Real Estate Investment
House Buying Sentiment
Declines Sharply
Real Estate Investment Sentiment
Mar-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Real Estate Invest-
ment Sentiment 108.0 113.0 108.4 106.9 112.1 111.4 110.0
Price Expectations 124.9 127.7 121.6 130.9 135.7 139.0 140.1
House Buying 97.7 109.8 105.0 92.1 99.7 96.8 87.3
House Selling 98.6 98.4 101.5 102.3 99.0 101.6 97.4
110.0
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Real Estate Investment Indicator
0.3
-2.8
1.3
House Price Expectations
House Buying Sentiment
House Selling Sentiment
Real Estate Investment Indicator: Contribution to
Monthly Change (% pt.)
36. 36 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Real Estate Prices: Expected Changes
111.4
139.0
96.8
101.6
110.0
140.1
87.3
97.4
Real Estate
Investment
Indicator
House Price
Expectations
House Buying
Sentiment
House Selling
Sentiment
Real Estate Investment Indicator - Components
All Russia Central North Caucasus Urals Volga
Expected Changes in Real Estate Prices in the Next
6 months (% of Households)
Real Estate Investment
Components and Balances
months to sell a house and has a negative impact on
the overall Real Estate Investment Indicator. The
Indicator fell below the breakeven level to 97.4 from
101.6 in February.
Regions
The Real Estate Investment Indicator declined in the
Central, North Caucasus, Urals and West Siberian
regions. In the Volga region, respondents were more
optimistic about housing sentiment, which was driven
by a rise in Price Expectations and House Buying
Sentiment and fall in House Selling Sentiment.
February 2014
March 2014
Go Up Dramatically
Go Up Slightly
Stay the Same
Gow Down Slightly
Go Down Sharply
Don‘t Know/No Answer
37. 37MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
House Buying Sentiment
90
95
100
105
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
House Selling Sentiment
21.5%
9.4%
35.9%
0.2%
22.5%
10.5%
Reasons for Buying Houses (% of Households)
11.5%
64.6%
16.4%
0.2%
7.4%
Timing for Selling Houses (% of Households)
Excellent Time
Good Time
Neutral
Bad Time
Very Bad Time
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Prices
Income/Purchasing Power
Investment Value
Policy/Interest Rate
Supply and Quality
Others
38. 38 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
The Car Purchase Indicator declined in March after
rising for two consecutive months, driven by a decline
in Car Purchase Expectations and a small rise in
Expectations for Gasoline Prices.
The indicator fell 3.7% to 85.1 in March from 88.3 in
February. The Car Purchase Indicator declined sharply
in the second half of the previous year and the fall on
the month put it 1.2% below the level of March 2013.
The indicator assesses whether consumers believe it
is a good or bad time to purchase a car and is
composed of two components. The Car Purchase
Expectations component, which measures the
willingness to buy a car, declined from a series high of
110.5 in February to 106.0 in March, a fall of 4.1%
on the month. Of those who felt it was a bad time to
purchase a car, a growing proportion cited poor
purchasing power and high interest rates as the
reasons.
According to the Association of European Businesses,
sales of new cars fell 2% in February compared with
a year ago. 206,476 vehicles were sold, 35% more
than January’s 152,662, but due to a seasonal boost.
The Indicator on Gasoline Prices, which measures
expectations for the price of gasoline in a year and
impacts the Car Purchase Indicator negatively, rose
slightly to 135.8 after declining for the first time in
February for four months to 133.8. Expectations
about future gasoline prices have trended upwards
after hitting a series low in July 2013.
Car Purchase
Lowest Since January
70
80
90
100
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Car Purchase Indicator
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Car Purchase Indicator - Components
Car Purchase Expectations
Price of Gasoline
Car Purchase Sentiment
Mar-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Car Purchase
Sentiment 86.1 85.1 81.9 81.0 83.3 88.3 85.1
Car Purchase
Expectations 107.6 101.4 98.9 98.2 104.4 110.5 106.0
Price of Gasoline 135.4 131.3 135.2 136.2 137.7 133.8 135.8
85.1
39. 39MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
111.8
96.6
100.2
106.8 106.9
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberian
Car Purchase Expectations - Regions
All Russia Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West
Siberian
Reasons for a Bad Time to Buy a Car
(% of Households)
Prices
Income/Purchasing Power
Policy/Interest Rate
Supply and Quality
Cost of Use/Upkeep
Others
Reasons for a Good Time to Buy a Car
(% of Households)
All Russia Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West
Siberian
Prices
Income/Purchasing Power
Policy/Interest Rate
Supply and Quality
Cost of Use/Upkeep
Others
6.2%
59.7%
21.0%
0.4%
12.7%
Expected Change in the Price of Gasoline
(% of Households)
Go Up Dramatically
Go Up Slightly
Stay the Same
Gow Down Slightly
Go Down Sharply
Don‘t Know/No Answer
40. 40 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Regions
75.8
90.1
61.7
101.4
69.2
99.9
90.0
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: North Caucasus
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator: North Caucasus
96.3
102.6
86.2
106.9
101.3 99.8
106.4
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: West Siberian
70
80
90
100
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator: West Siberian
41. 41MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
84.7
65.2
72.1 70.7
55.0
69.9
97.3
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: Volga
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator: Volga
97.7
93.8 92.5
102.2
85.6
93.7
103.0
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: Central
90
95
100
105
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator: Central
42. 42 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Much Better
A Little Better
About the Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Much Better
A Little Better
About the Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
78.4 81.3
57.7
83.6
71.4
88.9
99.1
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberain
Consumer Indicator Components: Urals
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
(% of Households)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberian
Consumer Indicator: Urals
Employment Indicator Outlook for the Next 12
Months (% of Households)
43. 43MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Income Groups
78.9
92.9
75.9
88.4
102.1
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
< RUB 480,000 - Components
89.8
94.3
86.9
87.6
90.5
85.7
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
80.8
99.4
85.0
92.5
99.8
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
> RUB 480,000 - Components
100.4
105.5
96.9
91.5
90.3
92.3
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
February 2014
March 2014
February 2014
March 2014
44. MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 201444
A selection of comments from the panel of
consumers surveyed over the past month.
What the Panel Said
45. MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014 45
“It’s better to live in owned flat rather than to rent.”
“Its better to buy a large durable item today as tomorrow
it will be more expensive.”
“Political relations with Ukraine have gone worse.”
“The prices are up because of depreciation seen in the
rouble.”
“Mortgage interest rates are high.”
“I have got a new position at higher salary.”
“Work is not stable as business is closing.”
“Income levels are rising slower as compared with
prices.”
“Investment in real estate may protect the finances from
inflation.”
“My income level does not allow me to change my car.”
“Because of the political crisis with Ukraine, a flow-out of
foreign investments is visible.”
“Our everyday expenses have increased due to higher
inflation.”
“My income has increased and we will change our car
this year.”
“The macroeconomic situation in Russia is not good,
economic growth is falling and it is impacted negatively
because of Ukraine situation as well.”
“Additional expenses for car maintenance are not so
high.”
“I don’t have the necessary finances to buy an
apartment.”
“The economic situation of Russia is bad.”
“The credit rates in Russia are the highest in the
world.”
“Car servicing prices have gone too high.”
“Rich people are becoming richer and our income
levels are going down.”
“To find a job is more difficult.”
46. MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 201446
A closer look at the data from the March
consumer survey.
Data Tables
47. 47MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Russia - Central Overview
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - Central
Consumer Indicator
100.9 96.8 95.4 - series low 97.7 -1.4 -1.4%
Current Indicator 103.3 99.3 97.7 - series low 100.1 -1.6 -1.6%
Expectations Indicator 99.3 95.1 93.8 - series low 96.1 -1.3 -1.3%
Personal Finance: Current 102.1 88.7 92.5 Jan-14 - 94.4 3.8 4.2%
Personal Finance: Expected 104.7 102.5 102.2 - series low 103.1 -0.3 -0.3%
Business Condition: 1 Year 98.0 92.8 85.6 - series low 92.1 -7.2 -7.7%
Business Condition: 5 Year 95.2 90.0 93.7 Jan-14 - 93.0 3.7 4.1%
Durable Buying Conditions 104.4 109.9 103.0 - Jul-13 105.8 -6.9 -6.3%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 98.0 98.3 99.1 series high - 98.5 0.8 0.7%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 113.2 115.3 113.2 - Jan-14 113.9 -2.1 -1.8%
Car Purchase Indicator 85.9 87.6 87.2 - Jan-14 86.9 -0.4 -0.5%
Employment Outlook Indicator 93.9 87.4 93.1 Jan-14 - 91.5 5.7 6.5%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 139.8 143.7 142.4 - Jan-14 142.0 -1.3 -0.9%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 69.0 68.5 71.4 Dec-13 - 69.6 2.9 4.1%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 114.6 116.0 113.8 - Dec-13 114.8 -2.2 -1.9%
48. 48 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Russia - Urals Overview
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - Urals
Consumer Indicator
93.2 88.7 80.1 - series low 87.3 -8.6 -9.6%
Current Indicator 90.7 99.9 78.4 - series low 89.7 -21.5 -21.6%
Expectations Indicator 94.9 81.1 81.3 Jan-14 - 85.8 0.2 0.2%
Personal Finance: Current 100.2 85.7 57.7 - series low 81.2 -28.0 -32.7%
Personal Finance: Expected 88.2 83.4 83.6 Jan-14 - 85.1 0.2 0.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year 101.9 75.9 71.4 - series low 83.1 -4.5 -5.9%
Business Condition: 5 Year 94.7 84.1 88.9 Jan-14 - 89.2 4.8 5.7%
Durable Buying Conditions 81.1 114.2 99.1 - Jan-14 98.1 -15.1 -13.2%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 93.9 98.5 100.3 Jul-13 - 97.6 1.8 1.8%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 107.7 115.3 111.0 - Jan-14 111.3 -4.3 -3.7%
Car Purchase Indicator 81.9 85.8 85.6 - Jan-14 84.4 -0.2 -0.3%
Employment Outlook Indicator 90.5 81.4 86.7 Jan-14 - 86.2 5.3 6.6%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 146.9 152.6 143.0 - Dec-13 147.5 -9.6 -6.3%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 75.6 76.9 77.4 Dec-13 - 76.6 0.5 0.8%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 135.6 132.8 122.7 - Oct-13 130.4 -10.1 -7.7%
49. 49MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Russia - Volga Overview
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - Volga
Consumer Indicator
109.5 87.8 73.0 - series low 90.1 -14.8 -16.9%
Current Indicator 130.0 106.5 84.7 - Nov-13 107.1 -21.8 -20.5%
Expectations Indicator 95.8 75.4 65.2 - series low 78.8 -10.2 -13.5%
Personal Finance: Current 116.7 87.4 72.1 - Nov-13 92.1 -15.3 -17.6%
Personal Finance: Expected 113.3 88.9 70.7 - series low 91.0 -18.2 -20.4%
Business Condition: 1 Year 76.3 72.7 55.0 - series low 68.0 -17.7 -24.3%
Business Condition: 5 Year 97.9 64.5 69.9 Jan-14 - 77.4 5.4 8.3%
Durable Buying Conditions 143.4 125.6 97.3 - Nov-13 122.1 -28.3 -22.5%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 109.6 82.9 97.7 Jan-14 - 96.7 14.8 17.8%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 126.7 97.1 124.7 Jan-14 - 116.2 27.6 28.4%
Car Purchase Indicator 79.3 111.4 84.6 - Jan-14 91.8 -26.8 -24.0%
Employment Outlook Indicator 41.4 63.5 94.2 Oct-13 - 66.4 30.7 48.4%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 134.7 166.2 169.5 series high - 156.8 3.3 2.0%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 70.7 69.3 86.9 Sep-13 - 75.6 17.6 25.5%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 116.7 170.2 125.2 - Jan-14 137.4 -45.0 -26.4%
50. 50 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Russia - North Caucasus Overview
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - North Caucasus
Consumer Indicator
94.3 89.2 84.4 - series low 89.3 -4.8 -5.4%
Current Indicator 88.6 81.4 75.8 - series low 81.9 -5.6 -6.8%
Expectations Indicator 98.0 94.4 90.1 - series low 94.2 -4.3 -4.5%
Personal Finance: Current 92.2 68.6 61.7 - series low 74.2 -6.9 -10.0%
Personal Finance: Expected 101.8 101.0 101.4 Jan-14 - 101.4 0.4 0.4%
Business Condition: 1 Year 93.8 80.7 69.2 - series low 81.2 -11.5 -14.3%
Business Condition: 5 Year 98.5 101.6 99.9 - Jan-14 100.0 -1.7 -1.6%
Durable Buying Conditions 85.1 94.2 90.0 - Jan-14 89.8 -4.2 -4.4%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 102.0 103.6 104.2 series high - 103.3 0.6 0.5%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 98.7 107.7 99.7 - Jan-14 102.0 -8.0 -7.4%
Car Purchase Indicator 75.9 72.0 78.5 Dec-13 - 75.5 6.5 9.1%
Employment Outlook Indicator 99.0 101.3 99.9 - Jan-14 100.1 -1.4 -1.4%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 127.6 123.7 124.8 Jan-14 - 125.4 1.1 0.9%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 66.0 70.4 73.3 Nov-13 - 69.9 2.9 4.1%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 108.9 104.1 103.0 - Sep-13 105.3 -1.1 -1.1%
51. 51MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Russia - West Siberian Overview
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - West Siberian
Consumer Indicator
100.7 106.7 100.1 - Dec-13 102.5 -6.6 -6.2%
Current Indicator 99.1 114.6 96.3 - Nov-13 103.3 -18.3 -15.9%
Expectations Indicator 101.7 101.5 102.6 Apr-13 - 101.9 1.1 1.2%
Personal Finance: Current 92.7 106.3 86.2 - Oct-13 95.1 -20.1 -18.8%
Personal Finance: Expected 99.2 99.1 106.9 series high - 101.7 7.8 7.9%
Business Condition: 1 Year 106.6 106.5 101.3 - Dec-13 104.8 -5.2 -4.9%
Business Condition: 5 Year 99.5 98.8 99.8 series high - 99.4 1.0 1.0%
Durable Buying Conditions 105.6 123.0 106.4 - Jan-14 111.7 -16.6 -13.5%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 100.3 99.9 99.7 - Dec-13 100.0 -0.2 -0.2%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 113.8 119.3 95.8 - Sep-13 109.6 -23.5 -19.7%
Car Purchase Indicator 81.2 97.8 83.1 - Jan-14 87.4 -14.7 -15.0%
Employment Outlook Indicator 98.6 99.4 99.6 Dec-13 - 99.2 0.2 0.3%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 122.3 121.2 116.3 - Nov-13 119.9 -4.9 -4.1%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 45.6 90.8 92.1 Jun-13 - 76.2 1.3 1.4%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 95.5 102.8 149.3 series high - 115.9 46.5 45.2%
52. 52 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
All Russia Overview by Age
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Age 18-34
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 102.2 96.2 90.1 - series low 96.2 -6.1 -6.3%
Current Indicator 106.8 104.1 91.8 - series low 100.9 -12.3 -11.8%
Expectations Indicator 99.1 91.0 89.0 - series low 93.0 -2.0 -2.2%
Personal Finance: Current 108.4 93.4 82.8 - series low 94.9 -10.6 -11.4%
Personal Finance: Expected 102.8 98.7 96.1 - series low 99.2 -2.6 -2.6%
Business Condition: 1 Year 96.4 88.7 79.7 - series low 88.3 -9.0 -10.1%
Business Condition: 5 Year 97.9 85.5 91.1 Jan-14 - 91.5 5.6 6.5%
Durable Buying Conditions 105.2 114.7 100.9 - Dec-13 106.9 -13.8 -12.0%
Age 35-54
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 96.8 92.0 87.3 - series low 92.0 -4.7 -5.2%
Current Indicator 98.2 93.5 86.8 - series low 92.8 -6.7 -7.2%
Expectations Indicator 95.9 91.1 87.6 - series low 91.5 -3.5 -3.8%
Personal Finance: Current 93.6 82.1 76.0 - series low 83.9 -6.1 -7.4%
Personal Finance: Expected 101.8 93.7 97.0 Jan-14 - 97.5 3.3 3.5%
Business Condition: 1 Year 90.7 87.0 75.8 - series low 84.5 -11.2 -12.8%
Business Condition: 5 Year 95.2 92.6 90.1 - Dec-13 92.6 -2.5 -2.7%
Durable Buying Conditions 102.8 104.9 97.5 - Aug-13 101.7 -7.4 -7.0%
Age 55-64
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 96.8 90.9 90.3 - series low 92.7 -0.6 -0.7%
Current Indicator 96.4 88.6 87.5 - Dec-13 90.8 -1.1 -1.3%
Expectations Indicator 97.0 92.4 92.1 - series low 93.8 -0.3 -0.3%
Personal Finance: Current 84.4 73.9 76.9 Jan-14 - 78.4 3.0 4.1%
Personal Finance: Expected 93.9 92.9 94.9 Dec-13 - 93.9 2.0 2.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year 102.9 86.3 90.5 Jan-14 - 93.2 4.2 4.8%
Business Condition: 5 Year 94.3 98.0 91.0 - Nov-13 94.4 -7.0 -7.2%
Durable Buying Conditions 108.4 103.4 98.0 - Dec-13 103.3 -5.4 -5.2%
53. 53MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
All Russia - Overview by Income
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 99.7 89.8 87.6 - series low 92.4 -2.2 -2.4%
Current Indicator 103.3 94.3 90.5 - Nov-13 96.0 -3.8 -4.0%
Expectations Indicator 97.3 86.9 85.7 - series low 90.0 -1.2 -1.3%
Personal Finance: Current 102.2 80.6 78.9 - series low 87.2 -1.7 -2.0%
Personal Finance: Expected 101.4 93.3 92.9 - series low 95.9 -0.4 -0.5%
Business Condition: 1 Year 91.4 79.3 75.9 - series low 82.2 -3.4 -4.2%
Business Condition: 5 Year 99.2 88.0 88.4 Jan-14 - 91.9 0.4 0.4%
Durable Buying Conditions 104.5 107.9 102.1 - Dec-13 104.8 -5.8 -5.4%
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 98.8 100.4 91.5 - series low 96.9 -8.9 -8.8%
Current Indicator 101.3 105.5 90.3 - series low 99.0 -15.2 -14.4%
Expectations Indicator 97.1 96.9 92.3 - series low 95.4 -4.6 -4.8%
Personal Finance: Current 100.1 96.8 80.8 - series low 92.6 -16.0 -16.6%
Personal Finance: Expected 101.3 100.0 99.4 - series low 100.2 -0.6 -0.6%
Business Condition: 1 Year 96.9 99.9 85.0 - series low 93.9 -14.9 -14.9%
Business Condition: 5 Year 93.2 90.9 92.5 Jan-14 - 92.2 1.6 1.7%
Durable Buying Conditions 102.4 114.2 99.8 - Dec-13 105.5 -14.4 -12.6%
54. 54 MNI Russia Consumer Report - March 2014
Methodology
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Survey is a
wide ranging monthly survey of consumer confidence
across Russia.
Data is collected through computer aided telephone
interviews (CATI), with each interviewee selected
randomly by computer. At least 1,000 interviews are
conducted each month.
The survey adopts a similar methodology to the
University of Michigan survey of U.S. consumer
sentiment.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator is derived from
five questions, two on current conditions and three on
future expectations:
1) Current personal financial situation compared to a
year ago
2) Current willingness to buy major household items
3) Personal financial situation one year from now
4) Overall business conditions one year from now
5) Overall business conditions for the next 5 years
Indicators relating to specific questions in the report
are diffusion indices with 100 representing a neutral
level, meaning positive and negative answers are
equal. Values above 100 indicate increasing positivity
while values below show increasing negativity.
55. Insight and data for better decisions
Discovering trends in Emerging
Markets
MNI‘s Emerging Markets Indicators explore attitudes, perspectives and confidence
in Russia, India and China. Our data and monthly reports present an advance
picture of the economic landscape as perceived by businesses and consumers.
Our indicators allow investors, economists, analysts, and companies to identify
economic trends and make informed investment and business decisions. Our data
moves markets.
www.mni-indicators.com