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Media Release	
	
Westpac MNI China CSI Falls Sharply to 112.6 in
June from 121.2 in May
Consumers’ expectations for future business conditions hit record low
increased to the highest level for more than three
years in June.
Commenting on the data, Chief Economist of MNI
Indicators Philip Uglow said, “While some indicators
point to a stabilisation in economic growth, consumers
don’t see it lasting for long, with future expectations
for business conditions hitting a record low. The
survey has a strong track record as a reliable gauge of
the future path of the economy and cautions against
becoming overly optimistic that China is past the
worst.”
Westpac’s Senior international economist Huw
McKay commented that “Chinese consumers have
reconsidered the more upbeat posture they assumed
in May. While optimists continue to outnumber
pessimists by a comfortable margin, precautionary
savings are again on the rise as a proportion of
income, with consumers now assessing that their
own finances are on somewhat shakier ground.”
“Notwithstanding these results, consumers are still
positive about the six month outlook for house prices
and they collectively gauge that it remains a ‘good
time to buy a house’ on net. The latter situation
contrasts directly with the perceived wisdom of the
analyst community at present and accordingly
requires careful watching over the coming months”,
he added.
Consumers seemingly underwent a reality check in
June as the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment
Indicator fell sharply to the lowest level in nearly a
year, in spite of signs that measures taken by the
Chinese authorities have stemmed the decline in
growth.
The Westpac MNI China CSI fell 7.1% to 112.6 in
June from 121.2 in May, as consumers reported a
broad based hit to confidence. While sentiment
remained above the breakeven 100 level, meaning
that optimists still outnumbered pessimists,
confidence has not been this low since July 2013.
Of the five components that contribute to the Westpac
MNI China CSI, three fell to the lowest level since the
series began in April 2007. Expectations for Business
Conditions in 5 Years hit sentiment the hardest,
falling to 126.4 in June from 137.7 in May. Business
Conditions in One Year and the Durable Buying
Conditions Component also fell sharply, with the
latter hovering only just above the 100 level that
separates optimists from pessimists.
Households’ perceptions of their Personal Finances
were also hit, with both Current and Expected
Personal Finances falling 7.5% and 6.9% respectively.
Respondents were particularly concerned about their
family expenses likely due to the recent increase in
consumer prices, particularly food prices.
While general levels of confidence declined,
consumers remain unperturbed by the weakening in
the housing market exhibited in other data, possibly
helped by action already taken by central and local
governments to underpin the market. The House
Price Expectations component, which measures the
outlook for prices over the coming six months,
Emma Cunningham
Media Relations
Westpac Institutional Bank
T +61 2 8254 6218
ecunningham@westpac.com.au
For more information:
Naomi Pickens
Media Relations
Deutsche Börse
T+1-212-669-6459
naomi.pickens@deutsche-boerse.com
Sales enquiries: info@mni-indicators.com
Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
Media Release 2
Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
100
110
120
130
140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Trust
default
issue
CNY
losses
3rd Plenum
GDP
slows
below
8%
Real GDP
Hits 14%yr
Global
financial
crisis
Stimulus
Package
announced
Shadow
Banking
crunch
Investor
housing
controls
tightened
Growth
Stabilisation
actions
announced
Stimulus
package
drives double
digit growth
European
financial crisis
Major lift
in food
prices,
CPI
Major lift
in food prices,
CPI.
Tight
domestic
monetary
& housing
policy
Xi-Li
ascend
Property
concerns
Growth
Stabilisation
amid
structural
reforms
SHIBOR
spike
Mini
stimulus
Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator - Event Map
Focus On: Car Purchase Indicator and Car Sales
Each month we ask consumers whether they
think it is a good time to buy a car over the
coming 12 months. Optimism had risen to a
three and a half year high in May. In hand with
the general drop in confidence, June saw a
sharp fall in the Car Purchase Expectations
component, which fell to 98.0 from 105.8
previously, the lowest since December 2013.
Confidence may well have been boosted recently
by fears that major cities were going to cut back
on the number of car licence plates issued. This
had caused the price of plates in Shanghai to hit
a record high in May, but prices have fallen in
June as a further tranche of permits have been
released.
Our Car Purchase Indicator, which assesses the
purchase climate and includes the price of
gasoline, hit a record low in June, as expectations
for the cost of fuel rose sharply.
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
70
80
90
100
110
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Car Purchase Indicator
Car Passenger Sales y/y % - 3 Month Average (RHS)*
*Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
Media Release 3
Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
Westpac MNI China CSI and its five components
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Westpac MNI China CSI 121.7 117.2 117.0 117.3 121.2 112.6
Personal Finances: Current 119.0 113.3 109.4 113.6 118.6 109.7
Personal Finances: Expected 122.3 117.8 114.9 120.0 124.6 116.1
Business Conditions: 1 Year 119.4 115.2 115.7 110.2 115.2 109.2
Business Conditions: 5 Years 138.7 132.8 137.8 133.8 137.7 126.4
Durable Buying Conditions 109.2 106.7 107.4 108.8 110.1 101.7
% m/m changes Westpac MNI China CSI and its five components
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Westpac MNI China CSI -2.5% -3.7% -0.1% 0.2% 3.4% -7.1%
Personal Finances: Current 0.0% -4.8% -3.4% 3.8% 4.4% -7.5%
Personal Finances: Expected -4.0% -3.7% -2.5% 4.5% 3.9% -6.9%
Business Conditions: 1 Year -3.3% -3.5% 0.4% -4.8% 4.5% -5.2%
Business Conditions: 5 Years -3.6% -4.3% 3.7% -2.9% 2.9% -8.2%
Durable Buying Conditions -1.3% -2.2% 0.6% 1.3% 1.2% -7.6%
% y/y changes Westpac MNI China CSI and its five components
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Westpac MNI China CSI 1.1% -3.3% -2.9% -2.8% 0.4% -9.6%
Personal Finances: Current 4.0% -1.1% -6.4% -0.3% 7.5% -8.3%
Personal Finances: Expected -0.7% -3.8% -7.0% -1.4% 0.1% -9.9%
Business Conditions: 1 Year 0.5% -4.3% -3.3% -8.2% -3.8% -10.5%
Business Conditions: 5 Years 0.7% -5.3% 4.4% -3.8% -1.6% -11.9%
Durable Buying Conditions 1.1% -1.5% -3.0% 0.4% 0.4% -6.7%
Media Release 4
Notes to editors:
Sponsor: Westpac Banking Corporation.
Production: MNI Indicators.
Date range: Monthly since April 2007.
Collection method: Computer aided telephone interviews.
Collection period: Ten working days from the first business day of the month in the People’s Republic of China.
Sample size and geographic area: Minimum of 1,000 respondents aged between 18 and 64 across 30 cities in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd tiers. That
represents a 0.0003% sample size relative to the population of China’s 30 largest cities at the time of the 2010 Census.
Cf. The University of Michigan surveys a minimum of 500 respondents in the United States excluding Alaska and Hawaii. That represents a 0.00016%
sample size relative to the July 1, 2012 population.
Sampling error: 3.5% for the “All China” series.
Cf. The University of Michigan survey reports a sampling error of 5% at the national level.
Disaggregation: By age, by gender, by income, by region, sub-region and by tier 1 city.
Calculation method: Each individual question is a diffusion index where 100 represents a neutral position, i.e. optimists and pessimists are equal in
number. The headline and other composite indicators are weighted measures comprised of the individual diffusion indices.
Seasonal adjustment: The raw data has been analysed for identifiable seasonality using Census X-13. No identifiable seasonal pattern was present.
Headline indicator: the Westpac MNI China CSI is an equally weighted composite of two current and three forward looking assessments, namely
current and future personal finances; overall business conditions one and five years ahead; and buying conditions for major household items.
Sub-indicators: these cover consumer perceptions and/or intentions regarding employment conditions, the real estate and equity markets, autos,
inflation, gasoline prices and interest rates.
Other available information: household expenditure breakdown, detailed reasoning behind responses, profit and loss on stock investments, and
more.
About MNI Indicators
MNI Indicators specialises in producing business and consumer surveys designed to present an advance picture of the economic landscape and
highlight changing trends in business and consumer activity. The timely reports explore attitudes, perspectives and sentiment across the globe,
including China, India and Russia. Alongside MNI Indicators’ core focus on consumer and business surveys in emerging markets, MNI Indicators
produces the renowned Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI), a key leading indicator of the US economy. MNI Indicators is part of MNI, a
leading provider of news and intelligence, a wholly owned subsidiary of Deutsche Börse AG, and one of the largest worldwide exchange organisations.
About Westpac in Asia
With its regional Head Office in Singapore, Westpac is a leading institutional bank providing strong capability and global franchise across Trade, Structured
Commodity Finance, Debt Capital Markets, Derivatives FX and Natural Resources. The Bank’s goal in Asia is to both support Australian and New Zealand
customers in the region, as well as provide a gateway for Asian firms and individuals with interests in Australia and New Zealand.
Westpac has been operating in Asia for 40 years delivering a broad range of financial services to individuals, corporate and institutional customers with
branches in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Mumbai as well as a representative office in Jakarta.
Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.

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Westpac MNI China CSI Press Release June 2014

  • 1. Embargoed until 9:45 A.M. Beijng Time, 25 June 2014 Media Release Westpac MNI China CSI Falls Sharply to 112.6 in June from 121.2 in May Consumers’ expectations for future business conditions hit record low increased to the highest level for more than three years in June. Commenting on the data, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “While some indicators point to a stabilisation in economic growth, consumers don’t see it lasting for long, with future expectations for business conditions hitting a record low. The survey has a strong track record as a reliable gauge of the future path of the economy and cautions against becoming overly optimistic that China is past the worst.” Westpac’s Senior international economist Huw McKay commented that “Chinese consumers have reconsidered the more upbeat posture they assumed in May. While optimists continue to outnumber pessimists by a comfortable margin, precautionary savings are again on the rise as a proportion of income, with consumers now assessing that their own finances are on somewhat shakier ground.” “Notwithstanding these results, consumers are still positive about the six month outlook for house prices and they collectively gauge that it remains a ‘good time to buy a house’ on net. The latter situation contrasts directly with the perceived wisdom of the analyst community at present and accordingly requires careful watching over the coming months”, he added. Consumers seemingly underwent a reality check in June as the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator fell sharply to the lowest level in nearly a year, in spite of signs that measures taken by the Chinese authorities have stemmed the decline in growth. The Westpac MNI China CSI fell 7.1% to 112.6 in June from 121.2 in May, as consumers reported a broad based hit to confidence. While sentiment remained above the breakeven 100 level, meaning that optimists still outnumbered pessimists, confidence has not been this low since July 2013. Of the five components that contribute to the Westpac MNI China CSI, three fell to the lowest level since the series began in April 2007. Expectations for Business Conditions in 5 Years hit sentiment the hardest, falling to 126.4 in June from 137.7 in May. Business Conditions in One Year and the Durable Buying Conditions Component also fell sharply, with the latter hovering only just above the 100 level that separates optimists from pessimists. Households’ perceptions of their Personal Finances were also hit, with both Current and Expected Personal Finances falling 7.5% and 6.9% respectively. Respondents were particularly concerned about their family expenses likely due to the recent increase in consumer prices, particularly food prices. While general levels of confidence declined, consumers remain unperturbed by the weakening in the housing market exhibited in other data, possibly helped by action already taken by central and local governments to underpin the market. The House Price Expectations component, which measures the outlook for prices over the coming six months, Emma Cunningham Media Relations Westpac Institutional Bank T +61 2 8254 6218 ecunningham@westpac.com.au For more information: Naomi Pickens Media Relations Deutsche Börse T+1-212-669-6459 naomi.pickens@deutsche-boerse.com Sales enquiries: info@mni-indicators.com Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
  • 2. Media Release 2 Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. 100 110 120 130 140 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Trust default issue CNY losses 3rd Plenum GDP slows below 8% Real GDP Hits 14%yr Global financial crisis Stimulus Package announced Shadow Banking crunch Investor housing controls tightened Growth Stabilisation actions announced Stimulus package drives double digit growth European financial crisis Major lift in food prices, CPI Major lift in food prices, CPI. Tight domestic monetary & housing policy Xi-Li ascend Property concerns Growth Stabilisation amid structural reforms SHIBOR spike Mini stimulus Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator - Event Map Focus On: Car Purchase Indicator and Car Sales Each month we ask consumers whether they think it is a good time to buy a car over the coming 12 months. Optimism had risen to a three and a half year high in May. In hand with the general drop in confidence, June saw a sharp fall in the Car Purchase Expectations component, which fell to 98.0 from 105.8 previously, the lowest since December 2013. Confidence may well have been boosted recently by fears that major cities were going to cut back on the number of car licence plates issued. This had caused the price of plates in Shanghai to hit a record high in May, but prices have fallen in June as a further tranche of permits have been released. Our Car Purchase Indicator, which assesses the purchase climate and includes the price of gasoline, hit a record low in June, as expectations for the cost of fuel rose sharply. -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 70 80 90 100 110 120 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Car Purchase Indicator Car Passenger Sales y/y % - 3 Month Average (RHS)* *Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
  • 3. Media Release 3 Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. Westpac MNI China CSI and its five components Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Westpac MNI China CSI 121.7 117.2 117.0 117.3 121.2 112.6 Personal Finances: Current 119.0 113.3 109.4 113.6 118.6 109.7 Personal Finances: Expected 122.3 117.8 114.9 120.0 124.6 116.1 Business Conditions: 1 Year 119.4 115.2 115.7 110.2 115.2 109.2 Business Conditions: 5 Years 138.7 132.8 137.8 133.8 137.7 126.4 Durable Buying Conditions 109.2 106.7 107.4 108.8 110.1 101.7 % m/m changes Westpac MNI China CSI and its five components Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Westpac MNI China CSI -2.5% -3.7% -0.1% 0.2% 3.4% -7.1% Personal Finances: Current 0.0% -4.8% -3.4% 3.8% 4.4% -7.5% Personal Finances: Expected -4.0% -3.7% -2.5% 4.5% 3.9% -6.9% Business Conditions: 1 Year -3.3% -3.5% 0.4% -4.8% 4.5% -5.2% Business Conditions: 5 Years -3.6% -4.3% 3.7% -2.9% 2.9% -8.2% Durable Buying Conditions -1.3% -2.2% 0.6% 1.3% 1.2% -7.6% % y/y changes Westpac MNI China CSI and its five components Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Westpac MNI China CSI 1.1% -3.3% -2.9% -2.8% 0.4% -9.6% Personal Finances: Current 4.0% -1.1% -6.4% -0.3% 7.5% -8.3% Personal Finances: Expected -0.7% -3.8% -7.0% -1.4% 0.1% -9.9% Business Conditions: 1 Year 0.5% -4.3% -3.3% -8.2% -3.8% -10.5% Business Conditions: 5 Years 0.7% -5.3% 4.4% -3.8% -1.6% -11.9% Durable Buying Conditions 1.1% -1.5% -3.0% 0.4% 0.4% -6.7%
  • 4. Media Release 4 Notes to editors: Sponsor: Westpac Banking Corporation. Production: MNI Indicators. Date range: Monthly since April 2007. Collection method: Computer aided telephone interviews. Collection period: Ten working days from the first business day of the month in the People’s Republic of China. Sample size and geographic area: Minimum of 1,000 respondents aged between 18 and 64 across 30 cities in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd tiers. That represents a 0.0003% sample size relative to the population of China’s 30 largest cities at the time of the 2010 Census. Cf. The University of Michigan surveys a minimum of 500 respondents in the United States excluding Alaska and Hawaii. That represents a 0.00016% sample size relative to the July 1, 2012 population. Sampling error: 3.5% for the “All China” series. Cf. The University of Michigan survey reports a sampling error of 5% at the national level. Disaggregation: By age, by gender, by income, by region, sub-region and by tier 1 city. Calculation method: Each individual question is a diffusion index where 100 represents a neutral position, i.e. optimists and pessimists are equal in number. The headline and other composite indicators are weighted measures comprised of the individual diffusion indices. Seasonal adjustment: The raw data has been analysed for identifiable seasonality using Census X-13. No identifiable seasonal pattern was present. Headline indicator: the Westpac MNI China CSI is an equally weighted composite of two current and three forward looking assessments, namely current and future personal finances; overall business conditions one and five years ahead; and buying conditions for major household items. Sub-indicators: these cover consumer perceptions and/or intentions regarding employment conditions, the real estate and equity markets, autos, inflation, gasoline prices and interest rates. Other available information: household expenditure breakdown, detailed reasoning behind responses, profit and loss on stock investments, and more. About MNI Indicators MNI Indicators specialises in producing business and consumer surveys designed to present an advance picture of the economic landscape and highlight changing trends in business and consumer activity. The timely reports explore attitudes, perspectives and sentiment across the globe, including China, India and Russia. Alongside MNI Indicators’ core focus on consumer and business surveys in emerging markets, MNI Indicators produces the renowned Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI), a key leading indicator of the US economy. MNI Indicators is part of MNI, a leading provider of news and intelligence, a wholly owned subsidiary of Deutsche Börse AG, and one of the largest worldwide exchange organisations. About Westpac in Asia With its regional Head Office in Singapore, Westpac is a leading institutional bank providing strong capability and global franchise across Trade, Structured Commodity Finance, Debt Capital Markets, Derivatives FX and Natural Resources. The Bank’s goal in Asia is to both support Australian and New Zealand customers in the region, as well as provide a gateway for Asian firms and individuals with interests in Australia and New Zealand. Westpac has been operating in Asia for 40 years delivering a broad range of financial services to individuals, corporate and institutional customers with branches in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Mumbai as well as a representative office in Jakarta. Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.