The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in May amid rising concerns about household finances, spending on big ticket items, and long-term business conditions. Consumer confidence declined across all income groups, though higher income households were less affected. Consumers expressed growing worries about current economic conditions and the future path of inflation, interest rates, and employment prospects. Spending indicators such as durable buying conditions and car purchases also fell as consumers grew more cautious.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose for the first time in five months in June, up 2.2% from May, though it remained below year-ago levels. Consumer sentiment increased across most regions except the Urals, where it declined to a record low. Confidence rose in lower income groups but fell slightly among high earners. Respondents were more optimistic about business conditions and purchasing durable goods in the near term, but inflation expectations also reached a new high.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
The IMF recently reported that Russia has entered a recession and warned that economic growth will further contract if Western sanctions are increased. The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell sharply in May due to the impact of sanctions over Russia's actions in Crimea. Industrial production growth increased in April but overall economic growth remains weak, forecast at just 0.5% for 2014 compared to original predictions of 2.5% growth. Russia signed a $400 billion gas deal with China aimed at boosting infrastructure investment.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell 5.4% in March to its lowest level since the survey began in 2013, as concerns over household finances, short-term business conditions, and spending declined sharply due to worries over Russia's actions in Ukraine. Current personal finances reached a series low while expectations for business conditions in one year also fell sharply. Overall consumer confidence in Russia has dropped more than 10% since the start of 2014.
Ukrainian Pharmaceutical Market Monthly - Upharmacia - Jan 2018Eirhub
The document provides an overview of the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market indicators for December 2017. Key points include:
- Pharmaceutical exports grew 6% in 2017 to $193.4 million while imports increased 10% to $1767.3 million.
- Retail sales in values grew 16.5% in 2017 to $2731 million and volumes increased 6% to 1685 million units.
- The average cost of a pharmaceutical pack was $1.47 in 2017.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in April as concerns over household finances, business conditions, and the spending climate increased due to the situation in Ukraine. The indicator declined for the third straight month and was almost 11% below early-2014 levels. Current personal finances improved slightly but future expectations fell, while both current and expected business conditions weakened. Inflation expectations rose to a record high.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.0 points in July to 91.1 after hitting a record low in May, but remains below year-ago levels. Consumers felt better about current finances but were downbeat on the future economy. High inflation remains a key concern despite a slight easing in expectations. Tighter monetary policy and new sanctions will likely weaken growth and sentiment going forward.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose for the first time in five months in June, up 2.2% from May, though it remained below year-ago levels. Consumer sentiment increased across most regions except the Urals, where it declined to a record low. Confidence rose in lower income groups but fell slightly among high earners. Respondents were more optimistic about business conditions and purchasing durable goods in the near term, but inflation expectations also reached a new high.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
The IMF recently reported that Russia has entered a recession and warned that economic growth will further contract if Western sanctions are increased. The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell sharply in May due to the impact of sanctions over Russia's actions in Crimea. Industrial production growth increased in April but overall economic growth remains weak, forecast at just 0.5% for 2014 compared to original predictions of 2.5% growth. Russia signed a $400 billion gas deal with China aimed at boosting infrastructure investment.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell 5.4% in March to its lowest level since the survey began in 2013, as concerns over household finances, short-term business conditions, and spending declined sharply due to worries over Russia's actions in Ukraine. Current personal finances reached a series low while expectations for business conditions in one year also fell sharply. Overall consumer confidence in Russia has dropped more than 10% since the start of 2014.
Ukrainian Pharmaceutical Market Monthly - Upharmacia - Jan 2018Eirhub
The document provides an overview of the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market indicators for December 2017. Key points include:
- Pharmaceutical exports grew 6% in 2017 to $193.4 million while imports increased 10% to $1767.3 million.
- Retail sales in values grew 16.5% in 2017 to $2731 million and volumes increased 6% to 1685 million units.
- The average cost of a pharmaceutical pack was $1.47 in 2017.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in April as concerns over household finances, business conditions, and the spending climate increased due to the situation in Ukraine. The indicator declined for the third straight month and was almost 11% below early-2014 levels. Current personal finances improved slightly but future expectations fell, while both current and expected business conditions weakened. Inflation expectations rose to a record high.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.0 points in July to 91.1 after hitting a record low in May, but remains below year-ago levels. Consumers felt better about current finances but were downbeat on the future economy. High inflation remains a key concern despite a slight easing in expectations. Tighter monetary policy and new sanctions will likely weaken growth and sentiment going forward.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the implications of Brexit for Britain and India, update on recent forecasts by World Bank, economic prospects of US economy and European Central Bank’s policy stance in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, Mr. Ajay Shriram, Past President, CII writes an article on the two years of Modi Government. Additionally, we also analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Trade and Balance of Payments. In Corporate Performance section we examine the corporate profitability trends for firms for the year FY16. From this issue, we have introduced a new section named as Policy Focus, in which we analyse the key policy documents released during the May-June 2016. In Focus of the Month, we cover the topic ‘India’s Trade & International Alliances’.
So far Sterling and Japanese and European equity markets have borne the brunt of the initial shock, while the FTSE is down only 3.3% since Thursday and most major and emerging market currencies have been reasonably well behaved (see Figure 1).
But there are still far many more questions than answers and the situation remains extremely fluid.
For starters there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on. The government has limited institutional capacity to start negotiations with the UK’s 27 EU partners until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered and no timeline has been provided for when this will happen (assuming it is triggered at all).
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the mammoth task ahead, the Leave campaign leaders have been very short on specifics regarding the mechanics and timing of the UK’s exit from the EU, the likely shape of future trade treaties and national policies such as immigration. Prime Minister Cameron’s de-facto resignation and wholesale changes in personnel in the opposition Labour Party are adding to the head-scratching.
Moreover, it is not one country seeking to leave the EU, but a union of four countries – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – which further complicates matters as both Scotland and Northern Ireland seem intent on remaining part of the EU and potentially breaking free from the UK.
At this point in time, all we can do is take stock of what we know (or at least we think we know) and what we don’t know (but can tentatively try to forecast).
I would conclude, as I did in Europe – the Final Countdown (21 June 2016), that the many layers of political, legal, economic and financial uncertainty are likely to keep UK investment, consumption and employment, as well as Sterling on the back-foot for months to come. Financial market volatility is also likely to remain elevated in coming weeks.
In this context the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates on hold in coming months and the European Central Bank can probably afford to do little for the time being. The Bank of England is likely to seriously contemplate cutting its policy rate while the Bank of Japan will be under renewed pressure to curb soaring Yen strength.
Of course, British policy-makers and business associations have come out and said the right things in order to limit the carnage and contagion. But they have far more limited room to reflate the economy and fade gyrations in financial markets than they did during the 2008-2009 great financial crisis. They are not in control at this juncture and it is not obvious who is.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Flash Report - Hungarian Inflation - 11 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2%-ra emelkedett az éves bázisú fogyasztói árindex márciusban, azonban továbbra is számos hatás fékezi az árnyomás erősödését. Idén 2% közelében maradhat az infláció, jövőre azonban akár gyors emelkedést is láthatunk, ha az egyszeri tételek hatása kifut.
London, 22 November 2013 MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME. MNI Russia Business Indicator Falls to 51.5 In November from 56.3 in October. Future Expectations Hit A New Low. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined for the second consecutive month, while expectations for the future hit their lowest level since the series began in March.
A piaci konszenzusnál erősebben, az OTP Bank Elemzési Központjának előrejelzésénél gyengébben alakult az első negyedéves GDP. Az adat megerősítette az OTP elemzőinek az idei év egészére vonatkozó 4%-os növekedési várakozását, a kockázatok felfelé mutatnak.
From ELANA Trading: Macroeconomic and Market Outlook 2015 „Bulgaria: Back on ...ELANA Group
This research report offers a thorough view on the major macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria, looking also into all internal and external factors such as crisis in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Greece turmoil. The outlook includes a snapshot of the Bulgarian stock market and its movers & shakers as well as ELANA Trading analysts top picks.
Some analysts points:
- We are cautious for 2015, but looking for a GDP growth pick up in 2016.
- Factors to watch during in 2015 would be the first decisive moves for reforms of the new coalition government, Greece and the crisis in Ukraine.
- The recent capital market decline provides good buying opportunities in various sectors as banks and financial services, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Upcoming IT IPO to boost market vitality.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, September 2017 DIXI Group
This document provides an economic overview and analysis of Ukraine. It discusses Ukraine's return to international bond markets in September 2017, raising $3 billion. Two key reforms were passed in October that should allow Ukraine to receive its next IMF loan tranche. GDP growth was estimated at 2.3% in Q2 2017 due to growth in household consumption and investment. Inflation remained high at 16.2% in August despite a seasonal decline in food prices. Producer price inflation accelerated to 23.6% in August.
The document summarizes the economic landscape in Russia in April 2014. It notes that Russian GDP contracted in Q1 2014 and full-year growth forecasts have been revised down to just 0.5% due to sanctions and turmoil in Ukraine. Industrial production growth slowed in March while car sales were stable. Inflation remains high and the central bank does not plan to ease monetary policy. The economic outlook is uncertain as tensions in Ukraine continue.
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
The document provides an outlook for 2016, summarizing that:
1) China has committed to ensuring 7% growth for the immediate future through government intervention, but rebalancing away from investment is necessary long-term which will slow growth rates.
2) In Europe, GDP growth has accelerated from under 1% to 1.6% since late 2014, supported by ECB monetary easing expanding credit.
3) In the US, growth in construction employment and spending is contributing to a 5% rise in personal consumption and will likely continue supporting the economy in 2016.
Highlights:
- Economic growth in Latvia is gathering momentum
- Household savings in banks on the rise
- Surplus in the current account for third consecutive quarter
In Focus:
- About Latvijas Banka's inflation forecast revisions in March and June 2017, by Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
The rise in bond yields in developed economies in the past 6 weeks remains one of the over-riding themes as we head into the last seven days of the US presidential campaigns.
Markets are now fretting about the implications for global growth and asset valuations and ultimately whether elevated global risk appetite will correct more forcefully.
Higher international commodity prices, a pick-up in global GDP growth in Q3 and early Q4 and easing deflation fears suggest that interest rate policies in developed economies may have reached an important inflexion point – in line with the view I expressed six weeks ago.
Developed central banks may refrain from loosening monetary policy further near-term, with the exception of the RBNZ and possibly ECB. At the very least, policy-makers will tweak a discourse which has largely focused on doing “whatever it takes”.
Recent US data have paved the paved the way for a 14th December Fed hike, conditional on Democrat candidate Hilary Clinton wining the 8th November US presidential elections.
But with the exception of the Fed and possibly a handful of EM central banks, rate hikes are a story for the latter part of 2017 (perhaps) while further rate cuts remain on the cards in Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and India.
Higher global yields and still uncertain US election outcome are taming global equities and volatility has spiked but EM currencies have still managed to eek out modest gains.
Assuming Hilary Clinton wins next week, I would expect the initial reaction to be a rally in global equities, EM currencies and Dollar and an underperformance of safe-haven assets.
But I would also expect market pricing for a December Fed hike to rise a little further, which could in turn eventually curtail any rally in global equities and EM currencies.
In this scenario, the Dollar would likely end the year stronger, as per my January forecast of a third consecutive year of albeit more modest Dollar gains.
Whether global risk appetite avoids its early 2016 fate will depend on the interconnected factors of underlying macro data and the Fed’s credibility. In any case, market volatility could spike in the run-up to March 2017.
The self-reinforcing sell-off in Sterling and UK bonds has only very recently abated, with markets seemingly taken some comfort from a number of factors including the only modest slowdown in UK GDP growth to 0.5% qoq in Q3.
But optimism over UK GDP data is not warranted as growth has become more unbalanced and slowed in August-September despite a significant easing in UK monetary policy.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and in-depth analysis of consumer behaviours within the rapidly changing Russian economy. We provide timely intelligence on the state of an important strategic market.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
Cushman & Wakefield Residential Market Commentary - May 2017Lee Layton
The document provides an economic overview and analysis of the UK residential property market. It finds that:
1) GDP growth is expected to slow down and bottom out in 2018, while inflation is already increasing. Interest rates are expected to remain on hold until 2019.
2) House prices nationally have remained flat in recent months, with transaction volumes subdued. New home construction continues to trend upward.
3) Prime central London property values and rents have fallen slightly in the past year, with transaction volumes volatile due to political events. Outer prime London markets have also experienced minor falls.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Falls to 94.1 in February from 99.3 in January.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator declined to the lowest level since the survey started in March 2013, led by a sharp fall in consumers’ views about the current state of their personal finances, with not even the winter games able to boost sentiment.
Russia's consumer sentiment hit a new low in May according to MNI's Russia Consumer Indicator, which fell to 87.2 from 88.5 in April, its lowest level since the series began in 2013. Consumers grew increasingly pessimistic about their personal finances, ability to purchase big ticket items, and long-term business conditions amid high inflation, increased loan costs, and expectations that Russia will fall into recession due to its tense situation with Ukraine. Most components of the indicator declined to new lows in May as consumers faced rising prices and interest rates and anticipated a weakening labor market and contracting economy.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the implications of Brexit for Britain and India, update on recent forecasts by World Bank, economic prospects of US economy and European Central Bank’s policy stance in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, Mr. Ajay Shriram, Past President, CII writes an article on the two years of Modi Government. Additionally, we also analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Trade and Balance of Payments. In Corporate Performance section we examine the corporate profitability trends for firms for the year FY16. From this issue, we have introduced a new section named as Policy Focus, in which we analyse the key policy documents released during the May-June 2016. In Focus of the Month, we cover the topic ‘India’s Trade & International Alliances’.
So far Sterling and Japanese and European equity markets have borne the brunt of the initial shock, while the FTSE is down only 3.3% since Thursday and most major and emerging market currencies have been reasonably well behaved (see Figure 1).
But there are still far many more questions than answers and the situation remains extremely fluid.
For starters there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on. The government has limited institutional capacity to start negotiations with the UK’s 27 EU partners until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered and no timeline has been provided for when this will happen (assuming it is triggered at all).
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the mammoth task ahead, the Leave campaign leaders have been very short on specifics regarding the mechanics and timing of the UK’s exit from the EU, the likely shape of future trade treaties and national policies such as immigration. Prime Minister Cameron’s de-facto resignation and wholesale changes in personnel in the opposition Labour Party are adding to the head-scratching.
Moreover, it is not one country seeking to leave the EU, but a union of four countries – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – which further complicates matters as both Scotland and Northern Ireland seem intent on remaining part of the EU and potentially breaking free from the UK.
At this point in time, all we can do is take stock of what we know (or at least we think we know) and what we don’t know (but can tentatively try to forecast).
I would conclude, as I did in Europe – the Final Countdown (21 June 2016), that the many layers of political, legal, economic and financial uncertainty are likely to keep UK investment, consumption and employment, as well as Sterling on the back-foot for months to come. Financial market volatility is also likely to remain elevated in coming weeks.
In this context the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates on hold in coming months and the European Central Bank can probably afford to do little for the time being. The Bank of England is likely to seriously contemplate cutting its policy rate while the Bank of Japan will be under renewed pressure to curb soaring Yen strength.
Of course, British policy-makers and business associations have come out and said the right things in order to limit the carnage and contagion. But they have far more limited room to reflate the economy and fade gyrations in financial markets than they did during the 2008-2009 great financial crisis. They are not in control at this juncture and it is not obvious who is.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Flash Report - Hungarian Inflation - 11 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2%-ra emelkedett az éves bázisú fogyasztói árindex márciusban, azonban továbbra is számos hatás fékezi az árnyomás erősödését. Idén 2% közelében maradhat az infláció, jövőre azonban akár gyors emelkedést is láthatunk, ha az egyszeri tételek hatása kifut.
London, 22 November 2013 MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME. MNI Russia Business Indicator Falls to 51.5 In November from 56.3 in October. Future Expectations Hit A New Low. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined for the second consecutive month, while expectations for the future hit their lowest level since the series began in March.
A piaci konszenzusnál erősebben, az OTP Bank Elemzési Központjának előrejelzésénél gyengébben alakult az első negyedéves GDP. Az adat megerősítette az OTP elemzőinek az idei év egészére vonatkozó 4%-os növekedési várakozását, a kockázatok felfelé mutatnak.
From ELANA Trading: Macroeconomic and Market Outlook 2015 „Bulgaria: Back on ...ELANA Group
This research report offers a thorough view on the major macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria, looking also into all internal and external factors such as crisis in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Greece turmoil. The outlook includes a snapshot of the Bulgarian stock market and its movers & shakers as well as ELANA Trading analysts top picks.
Some analysts points:
- We are cautious for 2015, but looking for a GDP growth pick up in 2016.
- Factors to watch during in 2015 would be the first decisive moves for reforms of the new coalition government, Greece and the crisis in Ukraine.
- The recent capital market decline provides good buying opportunities in various sectors as banks and financial services, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Upcoming IT IPO to boost market vitality.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, September 2017 DIXI Group
This document provides an economic overview and analysis of Ukraine. It discusses Ukraine's return to international bond markets in September 2017, raising $3 billion. Two key reforms were passed in October that should allow Ukraine to receive its next IMF loan tranche. GDP growth was estimated at 2.3% in Q2 2017 due to growth in household consumption and investment. Inflation remained high at 16.2% in August despite a seasonal decline in food prices. Producer price inflation accelerated to 23.6% in August.
The document summarizes the economic landscape in Russia in April 2014. It notes that Russian GDP contracted in Q1 2014 and full-year growth forecasts have been revised down to just 0.5% due to sanctions and turmoil in Ukraine. Industrial production growth slowed in March while car sales were stable. Inflation remains high and the central bank does not plan to ease monetary policy. The economic outlook is uncertain as tensions in Ukraine continue.
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
The document provides an outlook for 2016, summarizing that:
1) China has committed to ensuring 7% growth for the immediate future through government intervention, but rebalancing away from investment is necessary long-term which will slow growth rates.
2) In Europe, GDP growth has accelerated from under 1% to 1.6% since late 2014, supported by ECB monetary easing expanding credit.
3) In the US, growth in construction employment and spending is contributing to a 5% rise in personal consumption and will likely continue supporting the economy in 2016.
Highlights:
- Economic growth in Latvia is gathering momentum
- Household savings in banks on the rise
- Surplus in the current account for third consecutive quarter
In Focus:
- About Latvijas Banka's inflation forecast revisions in March and June 2017, by Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
The rise in bond yields in developed economies in the past 6 weeks remains one of the over-riding themes as we head into the last seven days of the US presidential campaigns.
Markets are now fretting about the implications for global growth and asset valuations and ultimately whether elevated global risk appetite will correct more forcefully.
Higher international commodity prices, a pick-up in global GDP growth in Q3 and early Q4 and easing deflation fears suggest that interest rate policies in developed economies may have reached an important inflexion point – in line with the view I expressed six weeks ago.
Developed central banks may refrain from loosening monetary policy further near-term, with the exception of the RBNZ and possibly ECB. At the very least, policy-makers will tweak a discourse which has largely focused on doing “whatever it takes”.
Recent US data have paved the paved the way for a 14th December Fed hike, conditional on Democrat candidate Hilary Clinton wining the 8th November US presidential elections.
But with the exception of the Fed and possibly a handful of EM central banks, rate hikes are a story for the latter part of 2017 (perhaps) while further rate cuts remain on the cards in Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and India.
Higher global yields and still uncertain US election outcome are taming global equities and volatility has spiked but EM currencies have still managed to eek out modest gains.
Assuming Hilary Clinton wins next week, I would expect the initial reaction to be a rally in global equities, EM currencies and Dollar and an underperformance of safe-haven assets.
But I would also expect market pricing for a December Fed hike to rise a little further, which could in turn eventually curtail any rally in global equities and EM currencies.
In this scenario, the Dollar would likely end the year stronger, as per my January forecast of a third consecutive year of albeit more modest Dollar gains.
Whether global risk appetite avoids its early 2016 fate will depend on the interconnected factors of underlying macro data and the Fed’s credibility. In any case, market volatility could spike in the run-up to March 2017.
The self-reinforcing sell-off in Sterling and UK bonds has only very recently abated, with markets seemingly taken some comfort from a number of factors including the only modest slowdown in UK GDP growth to 0.5% qoq in Q3.
But optimism over UK GDP data is not warranted as growth has become more unbalanced and slowed in August-September despite a significant easing in UK monetary policy.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and in-depth analysis of consumer behaviours within the rapidly changing Russian economy. We provide timely intelligence on the state of an important strategic market.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
Cushman & Wakefield Residential Market Commentary - May 2017Lee Layton
The document provides an economic overview and analysis of the UK residential property market. It finds that:
1) GDP growth is expected to slow down and bottom out in 2018, while inflation is already increasing. Interest rates are expected to remain on hold until 2019.
2) House prices nationally have remained flat in recent months, with transaction volumes subdued. New home construction continues to trend upward.
3) Prime central London property values and rents have fallen slightly in the past year, with transaction volumes volatile due to political events. Outer prime London markets have also experienced minor falls.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Falls to 94.1 in February from 99.3 in January.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator declined to the lowest level since the survey started in March 2013, led by a sharp fall in consumers’ views about the current state of their personal finances, with not even the winter games able to boost sentiment.
Russia's consumer sentiment hit a new low in May according to MNI's Russia Consumer Indicator, which fell to 87.2 from 88.5 in April, its lowest level since the series began in 2013. Consumers grew increasingly pessimistic about their personal finances, ability to purchase big ticket items, and long-term business conditions amid high inflation, increased loan costs, and expectations that Russia will fall into recession due to its tense situation with Ukraine. Most components of the indicator declined to new lows in May as consumers faced rising prices and interest rates and anticipated a weakening labor market and contracting economy.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, as current conditions improved sharply. Consumer sentiment rose in eight of the ten major cities surveyed, while concerns over inflation continued to worsen despite a slowdown in official inflation data. The Employment Outlook Indicator deteriorated considerably in January.
Russian consumer sentiment recovered slightly in June after hitting a record low in May, though sentiment remained lower than the previous year due to weak economic growth and Russia's actions in Crimea. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.2% in June, but was still 9.6% below the previous year's level. While purchasing intentions for household goods increased slightly, expectations for personal finances declined to a new low. Inflation expectations also rose to a new high, exacerbating consumers' concerns about high prices and interest rates on loans. The small recovery in sentiment in June was welcomed, but the economist noted that the economic backdrop remained gloomy.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine over unpaid bills. Russia's economy faces issues like a weakening currency, high inflation, and stalled growth. GDP growth slowed to just 0.9% in Q1 2014, well below forecasts. Industrial production grew in May but car sales declined sharply. Sanctions and tensions continue to weigh on the economic outlook for Russia.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Economic growth remains weak at 0.9% in Q1 2014, down from 1.3% in Q1 2013, due to sanctions and a weakening currency. Inflation rose in May to its highest since 2011. Industrial production grew 2.8% in May, led by a 4.4% rise in manufacturing. However, car sales declined 12.2% in May from a year ago as higher inflation and a weaker ruble hurt consumer spending. The economic outlook remains challenging amid geopolitical tensions.
The document is a monthly business report from MNI Indicators on business sentiment in Russia. Some key points:
- The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose in July to the highest level in three months, though it remains below levels at the start of 2014 due to economic weakness and geopolitical tensions from Russia's actions in Ukraine.
- Production conditions for large Russian companies slumped to a seven-month low in July, while new orders and export orders improved for the second straight month.
- Companies have been reducing inventories but the pace of decline has slowed, with the inventories indicator just below neutral levels. Input prices declined for the fourth month in a row.
- Access to credit
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013, its lowest since 2009, and that Russia's annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, forcing a rise in interest rates and downward revisions to growth forecasts.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, driven by concerns over the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013 and its annexation of Crimea has thrown the economy into turmoil, with the possibility of recession.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined in March. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013 and its annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, with the stock market plunging and sanctions from Western nations.
8 JANUARY 2014 . MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rises to 95.7 in December from 94.8 in November. Consumer Confidence Remains Low. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased slightly in December, having hit a series low in November. Confidence remained weak amid continued concerns over inflation, personal finances and a gloomy business outlook.
Balmer Lawrie reported a 33% rise in Q1 net profit. It also appointed Manoj Lakhanpal as its new CFO. Several media articles covered Balmer Lawrie's positive Q1 results and new CFO appointment. BJP President Amit Shah said that India will achieve 10% growth by 2017 and urged the Congress to support the GST bill. India's exports declined for the 8th straight month, falling 10.3% in July due to lower petroleum product exports and global oil prices. Industrial output in June grew 3.8%, the highest in 4 months, led by manufacturing growth. Wholesale inflation in July touched a new low of -4.05% on lower vegetable, fuel,
This document provides an economic commentary and outlook from Scotiabank. It discusses several topics:
- Chinese exports are expected to resume growing in the 6% range in May as distortions from currency movements drop out, and China takes steps to support growth.
- The Ontario election this week adds uncertainty, while Canadian housing starts and manufacturing data are expected to provide modest signals.
- Upcoming US retail sales data may show pent-up consumer demand being released in Q2 following weather-impacted spending in Q1, supporting expectations for strong Q2 GDP growth. Employment and household finances have greatly improved in the US.
US stocks gained for a sixth consecutive quarter, with the S&P 500 rising 5.2% to break 1900 for the first time. Investors looked past a sharp drop in first quarter GDP, focusing on continued Fed support and an expected economic acceleration. Treasury yields fell globally on expectations of further central bank stimulus in Europe. Corporate earnings are forecast to grow through the rest of 2014 after a weak start, supporting the outlook for stocks.
Highlights
• Economic slump has bottomed out – expect slow recovery ahead
• 2009-10 growth forecasts will be revised upwards by most as the year progresses
• Expectations of global growth resurgence fuels commodities and crude prices
• Dollar dives, rupee surges to 47 - more trouble for exporters ahead
• Fuel price deregulation on the cards
• But all is not well – and overheated stock markets need to cool a bit
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
The numbers all seem to be looking up, the stock markets all seem to be rising once again, and cheer is back. There is spring in the air. One wonders what happened suddenly to make everything so nice. Anyhow, things as predicted are improving – largely because of heavy government interventions internationally. The lower interest rates in India are also starting to have their impact – this was all predicted, as interest rate reductions take some time to play out. But what is also predicted is that things will take a few months more to stabilise - we estimate growth for this financial year to be an unexciting 6.6%.
The sharp fall in Russian markets was an overreaction to protests in Moscow following parliamentary elections. While events in other countries sparked regime changes, Russia's political consequences will likely unfold gradually. The protests were also not unprecedented and should not have justified the large sell-off. More important short-term issues for Russian investors include the EU debt crisis, China's economic growth, and oil prices. While not dismissing the protests, Russia's stable macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from those in countries experiencing Arab Spring uprisings. Changes in Russia are expected slowly rather than dramatically as public frustration has grown with a new middle class and expectations of reform.
- Core inflation in India declined to 4.5% in June from 4.7% previously, which may support a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBI in August. Industrial growth also turned positive in April after contracting previously.
- Financial results from companies so far have been better than expected, though IT sector disappointed due to Brexit. Global markets are focused on upcoming earnings season in India.
- The Bank of England is expected to cut rates to a record low of 0.25% to cushion the UK economy from Brexit shock. China's land and wage growth slowed in the first half of 2016 due to overcapacity issues.
RICS UK Economy and Property Market Chart Book - February 2016 (1)George Marcou
The document provides an economic commentary and analysis of the UK property market. It notes that global growth concerns continue to rattle financial markets and weigh on the outlook. While the UK economy expanded 2.2% in 2015, growth slowed in the second half of the year. The labor market added jobs recently but substantial slack remains. Commercial property demand is rising, particularly for industrial space, while housing transaction activity increased ahead of an upcoming tax change.
Chinese consumer sentiment fell sharply in June according to the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Index, which dropped 7.1% to its lowest level in nearly a year. Expectations for future business conditions hit a record low as consumers reported concerns about their personal finances and the economic outlook. While sentiment remained above the breakeven level, the decline signals caution about becoming overly optimistic on China's economic growth despite signs of stabilization.
Similar to MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Report, May 2014 (20)
The Chicago Business Barometer fell slightly to 54.4 in August from 54.7 in July. While production and new orders softened, they remained above their 12-month averages and up from earlier in the year. Companies continued building inventories at the fastest pace since November 2014 in anticipation of stronger demand in the fourth quarter. Employment rose in August but remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month, and companies do not plan to expand their workforces in the near term.
The Chicago Business Barometer made a positive start to the third quarter, jumping above 50 after two
months in contraction, leaving economic activity expanding at the fastest pace since January.
- The Chicago Business Barometer remained below 50 in March, pointing to a slowdown in the US economy. The Barometer increased slightly to 46.3 but was still in contraction territory.
- Production increased in March but remained below 50, while new orders and order backlogs rose slightly but remained contracted. Employment also rose slightly.
- While some of the weakness may be due to weather and port strikes, the continued weakness in March suggests a wider slowdown. Purchasers expect orders to pick up in the next quarter but demand remained soft in the first quarter.
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 5.4 points to 60.8 in November from a one year high of 66.2 in October driven by a double digit drop in New Orders.
- The Chicago Business Barometer rose 5.7 points to 66.2 in October, the highest level in one year, fueled by a sharp gain in new orders, which increased to the highest since October 2013.
- Production and employment also strengthened, and order backlogs expanded faster, suggesting continued strong demand and solid economic growth.
- While inflationary pressures eased due to lower oil prices, the domestic economy is growing firmly according to the survey results.
Embargoed until 9:45 a.m. ET, 30 September 2014 The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.8 points to a still robust 60.5 in September, as Production and New Orders slowed while fims reported a record rise in stocks and a sharp increase in input prices.
Embargoed until 9:45 AM ET, 29 August 2014 The Chicago Business Barometer surged 11.7 points to 64.3 in August, regaining all the lost ground seen in July, and pointing to continued strength in the US economy.
Russian consumer sentiment increased slightly in July according to a consumer sentiment index. The index rose 2 points to 91.1 in July from 89.1 in June, though sentiment remains below levels from earlier in the year prior to Russia's annexation of Crimea. Consumers felt better about their current economic circumstances but were still downbeat about the future outlook. Pessimism is expected to continue as sanctions over Ukraine's crisis further impact Russia's already weakening economy.
The document is a monthly report by MNI Indicators on consumer sentiment in India for July 2014. Some key points:
- The MNI India Consumer Indicator fell slightly from June as consumers were less optimistic about current conditions and future expectations.
- Five of the six components that make up the indicator declined, with personal finances seeing the largest drop.
- Respondents were less confident about their current and future personal finances despite tax measures in the recent budget.
- Sentiment on real estate fell for the fifth straight month while the car purchase indicator rose after an extension of tax cuts.
Consumer sentiment in China increased slightly in July according to the Westpac MNI China CSI. The index rose 1.9% due to a sharp recovery in long-term business expectations, though confidence remained subdued. Four of the five components rose between June and July, with the largest increase seen in expectations for business conditions over the next five years. Bank deposits remained the preferred savings vehicle among consumers, followed by wealth management products and real estate.
Russian business sentiment improved in July according to a survey by MNI Indicators, with the MNI Russia Business Indicator rising to 54.6 from 50.5 in June. While the initial impact of sanctions has faded, sentiment remains below levels at the start of 2014. New orders and export orders increased in July but production slumped to a seven-month low amid a weak economic backdrop. The outlook remains gloomy as high inflation and interest rates suggest the economy will barely grow in 2014, and further meaningful sanctions could push growth into negative territory.
The document summarizes India's economic landscape in July 2014. It discusses key points from the government's first budget, recent economic data, and the state of economic growth. The budget aimed to boost growth to 7-8% by promoting manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and reducing the fiscal deficit. However, it lacked details on subsidy reform and GST implementation. Recent data showed easing inflation but industrial growth remains subdued, with GDP at 4.6% in the last quarter. The government forecasts 5.4-5.9% growth this fiscal year but weaker external factors may limit growth to the lower end.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose 3.3% in June to 126.2, its highest level since February, as consumers were more confident about future economic growth and household incomes under the new government. All components of the indicator increased except durable buying conditions. Consumers were more optimistic about their personal finances, current and future business conditions, employment outlook, and inflation expectations. The interest rates expectations indicator and car purchase indicator also rose. However, confidence in the real estate market fell for the fourth straight month.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose to 126.2 in June, its highest level since February, as consumers were more confident about future economic growth and incomes under the new Modi-led government. All components of the indicator increased except durable buying conditions. Business conditions expectations for both the short-term and long-term hit record highs, with the government and its policies cited as reasons for optimism. Consumer inflation expectations fell to their lowest since December 2012. The chief economist commented that the rising sentiment is due to the recovery in the Indian economy and optimism around Prime Minister Modi's ability to revive growth.
The Chicago Business Barometer eased slightly in June but remained at a high level, pointing to a rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter following a sharp fall in the first quarter. While new orders fell from a seven-month high, production rose firmly above 70, close to its level in April. The strength in production and new orders underpinned the Barometer during the second quarter. Some respondents indicated they built inventories ahead of a possible strike by longshoremen at ports. The chief economist commented that while growth in the first half of the year will be slower than initially expected, upcoming data in the third quarter will be important in determining the timing of the first interest rate hike.
Russian business sentiment recovered slightly in June from a five month low in May, though it remained considerably lower than at the start of 2014 due to sanctions and economic slowdown. The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose to 50.5 in June from 49.2 in May but was 12.6% below June 2013 levels. Both production and new orders rose marginally in June while export orders increased but remained below the breakeven level of 50. The chief economist commented that while tensions in Ukraine continued, calmer rhetoric and actions on sanctions eased business concerns.
The document summarizes recent economic developments in India. Business confidence rose to its highest level since November 2012 due to optimism around the new Prime Minister's plans. Industrial production grew 3.4% in April, the highest in 13 months, led by manufacturing. However, growth remains subdued at 4.6% and below normal monsoon could push up food prices, challenging interest rate cuts. The new government aims to boost investment, manufacturing and foreign inflows to revive the economy.
The MNI India Business Indicator rose to 69.2 in June from 67.0 in May, reflecting higher optimism among manufacturing companies who expect the new Prime Minister to boost growth. New orders and order backlogs increased to their highest levels in months, while companies planned to expand employment and saw lower inflation. The survey showed signs of a recovery in demand and business confidence in India.
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The Universal Account Number (UAN) by EPFO centralizes multiple PF accounts, simplifying management for Indian employees. It streamlines PF transfers, withdrawals, and KYC updates, providing transparency and reducing employer dependency. Despite challenges like digital literacy and internet access, UAN is vital for financial empowerment and efficient provident fund management in today's digital age.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
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Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
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Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
3. 3MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Contents
4 Editorial
6 Executive Summary
12 Economic Landscape
16 Indicators
17 MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
24 Personal Finances
26 Business Conditions
29 Durable Buying Conditions
30 Employment Outlook
31 Prices Sentiment
34 Interest Rates Expectations
35 Real Estate Investment
38 Car Purchase
40 Consumer Indicator - Regions
43 Consumer Indicator - Income Groups
44 What the Panel Said
46 Data Tables
54 Methodology
4. Spitzzeile Titel4
Russia has long been looking to the East and last
month came up trumps, as President Vladimir Putin
signed a historic 30-year deal worth $400 billion
for the state-run gas producer Gazprom to supply
natural gas to China.
A New Friend
5. 5MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Our previous editorial was titled “Going Alone” as
Russia faced increasing political and economic
isolation from the US and EU. Russia has long been
looking to the East and last month came up trumps,
as President Vladimir Putin signed a historic 30-year
deal worth $400 billion for the state-run gas producer
Gazprom to supply natural gas to China. One little
caveat is that it would appear that while the signing
ceremony took place there are quite a lot of details to
be ironed out on the pricing front.
Still if it all goes ahead according to plan then it’s a
win for both sides as China secures the natural gas its
economy needs, a helping hand to move away from
more polluting coal, while Russia gets to diversify.
Not, of course, from its age old dependence on the
energy sector (it really does need to do this though)
but away from its traditional European partners.
Not wanting to be pushed around by the US or
European neighbours it’s likely that Putin gave a fair
bit of ground to China on the deal in order to push it
through quickly. Sharing a platform with China’s
President Xi Jinping is certainly one way to show the
world you’re not isolated. But even if China has got a
good deal, diversifying its supply network is a boon
for Russia. It will also help not just China but possibly
the rest of Asia, as Russia will be able to ship gas
from the end of the pipeline in south-east Russia to
other Asian countries. According to the International
Energy Agency, Asia is the fastest growing region for
natural gas consumption in the world and by 2015 it
will become the second-largest market.
China will make as much as $25 billion in advance
payments to invest in the necessary infrastructure in
Russia. Gazprom will invest $55 billion developing
giant gas fields in eastern Siberia and building the
new pipeline. While this may be hailed as the much
needed investment Russia needs, it also needs to
ensure that the proceeds of this deal are fed into
investment in other areas of the economy as well. The
danger is that a deal like this reinforces Russia’s focus
on the energy sector and may hold back the often
talked about development of the high-tech
manufacturing sector.
While Russia’s eastern foray is strategically important,
most of its trade is still with the EU. Our own business
and consumer survey showed that the Ukraine crisis
has inflicted clear damage on the confidence of
Russian companies and consumers. For now,
economic recovery in Russia depends more on it’s old
friends in the west than new ones in the east.
Shaily Mittal
Philip Uglow
MNI Indicators
6. MNI China Consumer Report - July 20136
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new
low in May amid rising concerns about household
finances, spending on big ticket items and long-
term business conditions.
Executive Summary
7. 7MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low
in May amid rising concerns about household
finances, spending on big ticket items and long-term
business conditions.
This was the fourth consecutive monthly fall and left
confidence down 12.2% since the start of the year as
concerns about Russia falling into recession have
escalated and sanctions have been imposed by the
West. The US and EU had warned that there would
be more sanctions if Russia interfered with the May
25 Ukraine elections, but President Vladimir Putin
has softened his stance toward the ongoing political
crisis in Ukraine by acknowledging the presidential
vote and calling Russian troops back from Ukraine’s
eastern border.
The Consumer Indicator fell to 87.2 in May from 88.5
in April, the lowest level since the series began in
March 2013.
The drop in confidence was due to concerns over
current conditions, with the Current Indicator falling to
the lowest level on record. Consumers were less
confident about the future as well.
Consumer confidence increased in high income
groups but declined in low income households in
May. Consumer sentiment was 15.4% down on the
year among low income households, but only 1.5%
down for higher income households, indicating that
the low income households are more affected by the
current economic and political turmoil.
Increasing concerns about the current state of the
economy and wider sanctions that could be levied
against Russian businesses prompted a fall in both
current business conditions and consumers’ future
expectations.
Longer term, Expectations for Business Conditions in
Five Years declined to a record low level in May. A
growing proportion of respondents cited the country’s
economic development as the main reason for the
deterioration in their outlook.
The outlook for the employment market also
deteriorated further in May, as consumers concerns
over the state of the economy mounted.
Concerns over the current level of prices remained
high in May, while expectations about the future rate
of inflation and interest rates hit a record high level.
The Car Purchase Indicator declined for the third
consecutive month in May, to the lowest since the
start of the survey, driven by a fall in consumers’ Car
Purchase Expectations. Of those who felt it was a bad
time to purchase a car, a growing proportion cited
high interest rates as a deterrent, in line with the
Central Bank’s surprise rate hike at the end of April.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator - Components
PersonalFinance:
Current
PersonalFinances:
Expectations
DurableBuying
Conditions
BusinessConditionsin1
Year
BusinessConditionsin5
Years
0
100
8. 8 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
All Russia - Overview
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 89.1 88.5 87.2 - series low 88.3 -1.3 -1.5%
Current Indicator 89.4 90.2 87.3 - series low 89.0 -2.9 -3.2%
Expectations Indicator 88.8 87.4 87.1 - series low 87.8 -0.3 -0.3%
Personal Finance: Current 79.5 83.7 79.6 - Mar-14 80.9 -4.1 -4.9%
Personal Finance: Expected 96.3 93.4 95.0 Mar-14 - 94.9 1.6 1.7%
Business Condition: 1 Year 79.4 77.8 77.7 - series low 78.3 -0.1 0.0%
Business Condition: 5 Years 90.7 91.1 88.6 - series low 90.1 -2.5 -2.7%
Durable Buying Conditions 99.3 96.8 95.1 - Mar-13 97.1 -1.7 -1.8%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 99.2 95.7 85.5 - series low 93.5 -10.2 -10.7%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 110.0 107.2 108.0 Mar-14 - 108.4 0.8 0.8%
Car Purchase Indicator 85.1 82.2 79.3 - series low 82.2 -2.9 -3.5%
Employment Outlook Indicator 92.9 90.9 87.8 - Feb-14 90.5 -3.1 -3.4%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 139.2 144.2 144.6 series high - 142.7 0.4 0.3%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 76.3 67.5 73.4 Mar-14 - 72.4 5.9 8.8%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 119.2 122.3 126.0 series high - 122.5 3.7 3.1%
10. All Russia - Records
2013- Current
Minimum Maximum Mean Median
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 87.2 99.9 95.8 97.4
Current Indicator 87.3 102.0 95.9 96.2
Expectations Indicator 87.1 100.3 95.7 98.3
Personal Finance: Current 79.5 103.2 92.9 94.7
Personal Finance: Expected 93.4 109.2 101.5 101.9
Business Condition: 1 Year 77.7 101.5 92.1 95.1
Business Condition: 5 Years 88.6 98.0 93.5 93.7
Durable Buying Conditions 92.9 109.9 98.9 97.2
Current Business Conditions Indicator 85.5 100.3 95.5 95.8
Real Estate Investment Indicator 105.3 113.0 108.6 108.0
House Price Expectations 117.9 140.1 128.8 127.7
House Buying Sentiment 82.6 109.8 96.6 97.7
House Selling Sentiment 97.4 102.3 99.8 99.5
Car Purchase Indicator 79.3 88.4 84.9 85.7
Car Purchase expectations 98.2 110.5 104.3 104.4
Price of Gasoline expectations 128.6 140.5 134.5 135.2
Employment Outlook Indicator 86.5 100.5 95.7 98.1
Inflation Expectations Indicator 130.7 144.6 138.0 138.2
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 67.5 86.0 77.3 76.2
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 111.1 126.0 117.9 115.9
10 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
11. Russian Consumer
Sentiment fell to a
new low in May...
...amid rising concerns about household finances, spending and long-term
business conditions.
12. Spitzzeile Titel12
The IMF recently reported that Russia was in
recession and warned that growth will further
contract if the West imposed any further sanctions.
Economic Landscape
13. 13MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
The geo-political turmoil in Ukraine has thrown
Russian into economic crisis and growth for the full
year has been revised down to just 0.5%. The IMF
recently reported that Russia was in recession and
warned that growth will further contract if the West
imposed any further sanctions. Moreover the rise in
the key policy rate by the central bank, to address
inflationary issues and stem the slide in the rouble
and capital flow leakage, comes at the cost of much
needed growth.
On a more positive note, industrial production
expanded and manufacturing output posted the
highest growth in five months. The rouble has gained
slightly from the previous month, but is still 8% below
the level compared with the previous year. Russia and
China signed a gas deal worth $400 billion which will
help to boost infrastructure investment in Russia and
comes at a time when western economies threaten
more sanctions against it.
Low economic growth
Economic growth remained extremely weak at the
beginning of 2014, slowing to 0.9% growth rate in Q1
compared with a year earlier, down from growth of
2% in Q4 2013 and 1.3% in Q1 2013. According to
the Economy Ministry, capital investment contracted
by 4.8% in Q1 compared with a year earlier.
Consumption remained relatively firm, but it reflected
a one-off public sector pay increase and so is unlikely
to be sustained.
Russian ministers had predicted GDP growth of 2.5%
this year before the Ukrainian turmoil. However, this
has been dramatically reduced to just 0.5%, following
a paltry 1.3% growth in 2013. In April, Central Bank
governor Elvira Nabiullina also revised the growth rate
for 2014 to below 1% from 1.5-1.8% previously.
The International Monetary Fund thinks that Russia is
already in recession as U.S. and EU leaders warn that
they are ready to take further measures if the situation
in Ukraine is not de-escalated.
Industrial production expands in April
Industrial production accelerated by 2.4% on the year
in April, up from 1.4% in March due to a rise in the
output of mining and quarrying which expanded by
1.1% compared with growth of just 0.6% in the
previous month. Manufacturing output growth added
to the expansion, increasing by 3.9% in April, the
highest in five months, and up from growth of 3.5%
in March. Utilities output continued to contract for the
sixth consecutive month, declining by 1.9% compared
with a fall of 6.6% in March.
In the first four months of 2014, industrial production
grew 1.4% on the year after contracting 0.6% in the
same period a year ago. The economy ministry
expects industrial output to increase by 1.3% this
year after it showed no growth in 2013.
Economic Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP Growth y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
14. 14 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Car sales fall in April
In April, 226,526 cars were sold, 7.7% below the
levels in the same month a year earlier, according to
the Association of European Businesses (AEB). Higher
inflation and a weaker rouble are having a negative
impact on consumer spending. The pace of the
decline in car sales had eased until March when sales
declined by just 0.4%, but the market is showing
signs of distress again. The four months to April saw
a decline of almost 4% in car sales compared with the
same period a year earlier.
A major blow to the Russian Automotive Industry
came when Ford Sollers, a joint venture between Ford
and Russian carmaker Sollers, announced it would
cut production and 950 jobs at two of its three
Inflation surges in May
Consumer price inflation rose to 7.6% in May from
7.3% in April, the fastest rate of growth since August
2011. The cost of food products rose by 9.5% on the
year, up from 9% in the previous month. A ban on
pork imports from the European Union due to an
outbreak of swine fever has affected the price of meat
products. Even after stripping out the food and fuel,
core inflation accelerated to 7% from 6.5% in the
previous month, the highest since October 2011.
factories in Russia due to the country‘s deteriorating
economy and weaker rouble.
The AEB remains cautious about the outlook and
has forecast that car sales will decline by 1.6% in
2014 following a drop of 5.5% in the previous
year.
Russia imports a large amount of consumer goods
and food items, and the depreciation of the
currency has pushed up prices, forcing the central
bank to tighten monetary policy at the end of
April.
The central bank governor now expects inflation
to stand between 5% and 6% in 2014, above the
target of 5%.
Inflation
CPI y/y%
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Car Sales
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Car and Light Commercial Vehicles Sales y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
15. 15MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
The Central Bank has cut the size of the interventions
it carries out to support the rouble, a return to the
policy of allowing the rouble to float more freely.
Previously the bank spent $400 million a day when
the rouble was within 95 kopecks ($0.028) of the
upper edge of the top range of the corridor, or $200
million when it was trading in a range of one rouble
below that. These amounts will now be reduced to
$300 million and $100 million, respectively.
The bank aims to adopt inflation targeting from the
start of next year. It was forced to pause the shift
towards inflation targeting in early March in order to
halt the rouble’s decline after Russia annexed Crimea.
Trade surplus widens in April
Russia‘s trade surplus widened to $18 billion in April,
from $14.2 billion a year earlier but down from $19.7
billion a month earlier.
Exports increased to $45.6 billion in April, 2.5%
above the same period a year ago although below
March’s $46.8 billion. Imports declined for the fourth
consecutive month to $27.6 billion, down by 8.7% on
the year, although slightly up from $27.1 billion
recorded in March.
High Interest Rates
On April 25, the Russian central bank raised its
benchmark interest rate to 7.5% from 7%, given the
rise in inflation. The increase followed a hike on
March 3 from 5.5% to 7% that the bank had described
as temporary.
The surprise rate hike came despite stalling economic
growth. While the central bank’s stated concern was
inflation, the move was also a pre-emptive strike to
ward off further capital outflows and help support the
currency.
The Central Bank expects that the additional policy
tightening will help inflation to return to a downward
path from the second half of the year and put it back
on target in subsequent years.
Depreciation in the rouble
So far this year, the rouble has been one of the worst
performing emerging market currencies due to
alarming levels of capital flowing of the country
following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and fears of
further escalation in the situation. In June, the rouble
was 8.1% below the level seen in the same period a
year ago. However, as international tensions have
eased a bit, the rouble has strengthened over the past
two months.
Russia had a healthy $482.7 billion in international
currency reserves in April, but that was down from
$493 billion in March and $522 billion in October
2013 as the country has tried to protect the rouble
from capital flight.
Capital outflows from Russia’s private sector stood at
$63.7 billion in Q1 2014 owing to the financial
instability. This compared with an outflow of $59.7
billion during the whole of 2013. Recently, the
Russian Economic Development Ministry increased
its estimate of capital flight to $150 billion, up from
an already revised estimate to $100 billion, post
Ukraine crisis, $25 billion being the original estimate.
16. MNI China Consumer Report - July 201316
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator declined for
the fourth consecutive month and confidence was
well below the level seen at the start of the year as
concerns about Russia falling into recession have
mounted.
Indicators
17. 17MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low
in May amid rising concerns about household
finances, spending on big ticket items and long-term
business conditions.
This was the fourth consecutive monthly fall and left
confidence 12.2% below the level seen at the start of
the year, as concerns about Russia falling into
recession have escalated and sanctions have been
imposed by the West. The US and EU had warned
that there would be more sanctions if Russia interfered
in any way with the May 25 Ukraine elections, but
President Vladimir Putin has softened his stance
towards the ongoing political crisis in Ukraine by
acknowledging the presidential vote and calling
Russian troops back from Ukraine’s eastern border.
The Consumer Indicator fell to 87.2 in May from 88.5
in April, the lowest level since the series began in
March 2013. A reading below 100 indicates increasing
negativity among consumers, while values above 100
show increasing positivity. Consumer sentiment has
remained below the 100 breakeven level since the
series started and the first quarter of 2014 marked the
weakest sentiment on record.
The drop in confidence was due to concerns over
current conditions, with the Current Indicator falling to
87.3 from 90.2 in the previous month, the lowest
level on record. Current Personal Finances slipped
back to 79.6 after rising in the previous month to
83.7, while the Durable Buying Conditions Indicator
declined for the third consecutive month to 95.1 from
96.8 in April, a further hit to discretionary spending.
87.2
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Hits Record Low
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
MNI Russia
Consumer Indicator 97.5 95.7 99.3 94.1 89.1 88.5 87.2
Current 96.2 95.7 102.0 98.6 89.4 90.2 87.3
Expectations 98.3 95.7 97.5 91.2 88.8 87.4 87.1
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
76
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Current and Expectations Indicators
Current
Expectations
18. 18 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
87.2 87.3 87.1
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
All Russia
93.6
96.2
91.9
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
Central Russia
77.1
60.8
87.9
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
West Siberian
76.9
99.8
61.7
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
Volga
83.3
78.9
86.2
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
Urals
83.9
73.0
91.1
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
North Caucasus
19. 19MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Consumers remained less confident about the future
as the Expectations Indicator stood at 87.1 in May
compared with 87.4 in April. Business Conditions in
One Year were 19.5% below the same period a year
earlier while Expectations for Business Conditions in
Five Years declined to the lowest since the start of the
survey. The third component of the Expectations
Indicator, Expected Personal Finances has trended
downwards, and has remained in contraction for four
months, but in May it increased slightly after hitting a
series low in April.
Regions
Consumer sentiment remained weak in all regions
and fell to a series low in six out of the 12 surveyed.
Central Russia continued to be the most optimistic,
while Volga was the least optimistic. Respondents
from Western Siberian suffered a significant decline of
18.5% in consumer sentiment, with the indicator
declining to the lowest since the start of the survey.
Confidence rose the most in the Urals region after
three consecutive falls. The Consumer Indicator
increased to 83.3 from 77.4 in April, although was
still 15.4% down on the year. Compared with the
previous month, consumers were more optimistic
about Future Conditions especially Business
Conditions in One and Five Years. Personal Finances,
both current and expected, declined on the month.
Age
Consumer sentiment declined in all age groups, with
the oldest age group being the least optimistic.
Consumer sentiment hit a record low in the youngest
age group (18-34 year olds), with the Consumer
Indicator declining to 89.5 in May from 92.4 in April.
Consumers were less optimistic about future
conditions than current conditions. The steepest fall
was in consumers’ expectations for Business
Conditions in Five Years, which declined to the lowest
in three months.
-0.9
0.4
0.0
-0.6
-0.4
Personal Finances: Current
Personal Finances: Expected
Business Conditions: 1 Year
Business Conditions: 5 Years
Durable Buying Conditions
Consumer Indicator: Contribution to Monthly Change
(% pt.)
20. 20 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Consumer sentiment declined for the fourth
consecutive month, albeit slightly, among the middle
age range (35-54 year olds), to hit a series low in
May. The Consumer Indicator stood at 85.1 compared
with 85.5 in the previous month. Consumers were
highly concerned about their Current Personal
Finances, which were down 8.6% on the month and
26.7% below the level seen in the same period a year
earlier. Respondents were more optimistic about
Business Conditions in a year’s time as shown by a
small pick up in the indicator for the first time in
seven months.
Consumer sentiment among the oldest age range of
55-65 year olds declined to a new series low of 83.7
from 85.5 in April. Consumers were more dissatisfied
with the Current Conditions than the Future
Expectations. Significant falls were seen in Current
Personal Finances and consumers’ propensity to buy
large household items. Consumers were pessimistic
about all five components that make up the Consumer
Indicator, all being below the 100 expansion/
contraction line for the third consecutive month.
Income
Consumer confidence increased in high income
groups but declined in low income households in
May.
For households with an average income under RUB
480,000 per annum, sentiment declined for the
fourth month in a row to a new series low of 80.6
from 84.2 in the previous month. For households
with an average income over RUB 480,000 per
annum, consumer sentiment improved to 97.7 from
92.6 in April, the highest in three months.
Consumer confidence has on average been higher
among high income households and lower among low
income households. Our survey shows that low
87.2
89.5
85.1
83.7
All 18-34 35-54 55-64
Consumer Indicator: Age Groups
income households have been hit the most while
wealthier ones have not been impacted much by the
current political and economic tension. Consumer
sentiment was 15.4% down on the year among low
income households, but only 1.5% down for higher
income households.
21. 21MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
80.6
77.1
82.9
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
97.7
103.9
93.6
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Income Groups
22. 22 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Main Cities
The Consumer Indicator declined in eight out of the
10 major cities surveyed in May while it was above
the 100 expansion/contraction line only for St.
Petersburg and Omsk.
In Moscow, consumer sentiment declined for the
second consecutive month to hit a record low in May.
The Consumer Indicator was in contraction for the
fourth month in a row at 92.9, compared with 96.5 in
the previous month.
Consumers in Moscow were less optimistic about all
of the five components that make up the Consumer
Indicator apart from Business Conditions in One Year,
which increased slightly after four monthly declines.
Consumers did not think it was a good time to buy a
large household item as the Durable Buying Conditions
Indicator declined below the 100 neutral line for the
first time since the start of the survey. Consumers
were only optimistic about Expected Personal
Finances which picked up after hitting a record low
level in February.
Consumer sentiment expanded sharply in Saint
Petersburg, the second largest city in Russia, after
remaining in contraction for eight months. The
Consumer Indicator rose to 101.4 from 92.5 in April,
making it the most optimistic city in May. The increase
was across the five components, the largest being in
Business Conditions in One Year which rose by 15.7%
to just below 100. Consumers were more optimistic
about Business Conditions in Five Years, with the
indicator standing at the highest since September.
Consumers were also more optimistic about Personal
Finances in the next 12 months, which hit the highest
level since August.
In Novosibirsk, the third most populous city in Russia,
consumer sentiment declined to the lowest level since
the series started. The Consumer Indicator fell from
88.7 in April to 83.6 in May. Respondents were less
optimistic about future conditions, as shown by a
significant decline in the Future Expectations Indicator
85
90
95
100
105
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator - Moscow
94.0 92.2
88.4
105.3
84.7 86.4
99.7
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components - Moscow
which fell for the first time in three months. There
were sharp declines in the Business Conditions in One
Year and Future Personal Finances Indicators. Despite
the fall in Current Personal Finances, consumers
found it a better time to purchase large household
items as compared with the previous month.
Kazan was the least optimistic city in May. The
Consumer Indicator declined sharply by almost 12%
to 75.5 from 85.7 in the previous month and was
more than 25% below the outturn in the same period
a year ago.
23. 23MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
80
85
90
95
100
105
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator - Saint Petersburg
70
80
90
100
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator - Novosibirsk
97.5
104.1
95.8
106.6
99.5
106.1
99.3
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components - Saint Petersburg
84.3 83.1
72.0
86.1
71.2
91.9
96.7
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components - Novosibirsk
24. MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 201424
Current Personal Finances declined further in May,
close to the record low level seen in March, while
expectations for future finances rose slightly, although
remained below the 100 breakeven level.
The Current Personal Finances Indicator, which
measures whether the financial situation of a
household is better, the same, or worse than a year
ago, fell to 79.6 from 83.7 previously, very close to
the series low of 79.5 recorded in March. In spite of
the month’s gain, the indicator was 17.4% below the
levels seen in the previous year, hit by high inflation
and poor economic growth.
From the three quarters of respondents who reported
that their Current Personal Finances were worse, a
growing proportion blamed poor policy and business
conditions for this.
Expected Personal Finances, which measures whether
households think their finances will be better in a
year’s time, picked up slightly to 95.0 after declining
to a series low of 93.4 in the previous month. It was
the fourth month that expectations were below the
100 breakeven mark.
79.6
Personal Finances
Close to Record Low
Personal Finances
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current 96.3 92.5 99.3 87.3 79.5 83.7 79.6
Expectations 105.5 101.9 101.2 96.3 96.3 93.4 95.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Personal Finances
Current
Expectations
25.8%
7.5%
66.6%
0.1%
Current Financial Situation Compared with 1 Year
Ago (% of Households)
Much Better
A Little Better
Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
25. MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014 25
2.1%
97.9%
Daily Expenses
(% of Households)
13.1%
86.8%
0.1%
Monthly Household Income Used for Savings
(% of Households)
91.3%
7.2%
1.5%
Monthly Household Income Used for Large Loan
Repayment (% of Households)
48.2%
51.8%
Monthly Household Income Used for Investments
(% of Households)
How Households Spend their
Money
0% - 29% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
0% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
0% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
0% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
50% - 69% of Income
70% - 100% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
30% -49% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
26. MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 201426
Increasing concerns about the current state of the
economy and wider sanctions that could be levied
against Russian businesses prompted a fall in both
current business conditions and consumers’ future
expectations.
The Current Business Conditions Indicator, which
measures respondents’ views on the state of business
compared with a year ago, fell sharply to 85.5
compared with 95.7 in the previous month, the lowest
since the start of the survey in March 2013. Consumer
sentiment regarding the business environment been
weak throughout the series history and the only time
it has been above the breakeven level was in January,
a possible short-term boost in the run-up to the Sochi
Olympics.
The current political turmoil has dented respondents’
perceptions about the business environment. Around
30% of respondents thought conditions were “poor”
or “very poor” while 60% of them, fewer than the
previous month, thought they were the same.
Longer term, Expectations for Business Conditions in
Five Years declined to a record low level in May with
the Indicator falling by 2.7% to 88.6 compared with
91.1 in the previous month. Since last year, the series
has fallen by 4.7% and is below the series average of
93.5.
85.5
Business Conditions
At Record Low Levels
Business Conditions
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current 95.8 94.9 100.3 97.5 99.2 95.7 85.5
In 1 Year 96.6 94.4 95.1 87.8 79.4 77.8 77.7
In 5 Years 93.0 90.8 96.4 89.4 90.7 91.1 88.6
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Current Business Conditions Indicator
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Expected Business Conditions
1 Year
5 Years
27. MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014 27
Business Conditions in 1 Year
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Resource/Environment
Social Stability/ Security
Events
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Resource/Environment
Social Stability/ Security
Events
13.3%
25.2%
36.2%
18.7%
6.6%
All Russia, Reasons for Better
27.0%
35.4%
24.7%
6.0% 5.8%
1.1%
All Russia, Reasons for Worse
51.8%
25.8%
48.2%
74.2%
Apr-14 May-14
All Russia
Expectations for Business Conditions in a Year
remained stable at 77.7 compared with 77.8 in April.
The majority of respondents (67%) expected to see a
worsening in business conditions over the next 12
months. A growing proportion of respondents cited
the country’s economic development as the main
reason for the deterioration in their outlook.
Better
Worse
28. MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 201428
Business Conditions in 1 Year
Regions
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberian
Reasons for Better
(% of Respondents)
33.1%
22.7%
31.0%
3.8%
9.0%
66.9%
77.3%
69.0%
96.2%
91.0%
Central North Caucasus Urals Volga West Siberian
Business Expectations: Worse or Better?
(% of Respondents)
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberian
Reasons for Worse
(% of Respondents)
Better
Worse
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Resource/Environment
Social Stability/ Security
Events
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Resource/Environment
Social Stability/ Security
Events
29. 29MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
The Durable Buying Conditions Indicator, which
measures whether respondents think it is a good or
bad time to buy a large household good, declined for
the third consecutive month to the lowest since March
2013.
The Indicator fell to 95.1 from 96.8 in April, as the
current economic malaise and depreciation in the
rouble has reined in consumers’ discretionary
spending by pushing up the cost of imported goods.
Some consumers complained that their salary did not
grow in line with inflation, eroding their purchasing
power.
There was a rise in the proportion of respondents who
thought it was an “okay” time to purchase household
items, although the majority thought it was a bad
time. Many respondents pointed to the high cost of
household durable goods and reported that they could
not afford large purchases.
Durable Buying Conditions
Lowest in 14 Months
Durable Buying Conditions
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Durable Buying
Conditions 96.2 98.9 104.7 109.9 99.3 96.8 95.1
95.1
90
95
100
105
110
115
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Durable Buying Conditions
37.9%
13.1%
47.7%
1.3%
Is It a Good or Bad Time to Buy Large Household
Goods? (% of Households)
Excellent Time
Good Time
Neutral
Bad Time
Very Bad Time
Don‘t Know/No Answer
30. 30 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
The outlook for the employment market deteriorated
further in May, as consumers concerns over the state
of the economy mounted.
The Employment Outlook Indicator, which measures
opinion on the outlook of the employment market over
the next 12 months, declined to 87.8 in May from
90.9 in April. The labour market has deteriorated
significantly in 2014, with the Indicator hitting a
series low in the first quarter of the year.
Respondents from the five major regions surveyed
were more pessimistic about the Employment Outlook
apart from respondents from West Siberian, where
the indicator increased marginally and Urals, where
the Employment Indicator rose slightly although
remained below the 100 level that separates expansion
from contraction. Respondents from the Volga region
were most perturbed about their employment situation
compared with the previous month as more than half
of them expected the situation to worsen in a year.
Official statistics showed that the unemployment rate
declined in April to 5.3% from 5.4% in March. Results
from the May edition of our sister survey on Russian
Businesses showed that the majority of companies
reported that the current number of employees they
had was just right, although over the past year,
companies have become more pessimistic due to the
economy’s downturn.
Employment Outlook
Lowest Since February
Employment Outlook
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Employment
Outlook 100.3 98.2 87.2 86.5 92.9 90.9 87.8
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Employment Outlook Indicator
7.7%
62.5%
23.8%
4.1%
1.9%
Employment Outlook for the Next 12 Months
(% of Households)
87.8
Much Better
A Little Better
Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
31. 31MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Concerns over the current level of prices remained
high in May, while expectations about the future rate
of inflation hit a record high level.
The Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator picked up in
May to 73.4 after falling sharply to a series low of
67.5 in April. A figure below 100 indicates wider
dissatisfaction with current prices, and the further
below 100 the greater the dissatisfaction. The
indicator has remained below 100 since the survey
started in March 2013 and in May, it was almost 13%
below the same period a year earlier.
Consumer price inflation rose sharply to 7.6% in May,
from 7.3% in April, mostly driven by an acceleration
in food prices to 9.5% on the year, up from 9% in the
previous month. The central bank governor, Elvira
Nabiullina, now expects inflation to be 5-6% in 2014,
missing the 5% target set previously for 2014. The
recent weakening of the rouble has fuelled inflation,
although planned lower hikes in administered prices
and tariffs should provide some relief.
The central bank believes that stubborn inflation is a
serious problem and the previous rate hikes will have
an impact on controlling inflation, which ultimately
would rebuild trust in the rouble and ensure
macroeconomic stability.
The Inflation Expectations Indicator, which measures
whether respondents think prices will be higher or
lower in 12 months’ time, has trended upwards since
the start of the survey. It rose to a new series high of
144.6 in May compared with 144.2 in the previous
Prices Sentiment
Inflation Expectations at Record
High Levels
Prices Sentiment
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Satisfaction with
Current Prices 84.2 71.8 69.4 74.4 76.3 67.5 73.4
Inflation Expec-
tations 136.6 138.2 136.9 140.9 139.2 144.2 144.6
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Satisfaction with Current Prices Indicator
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
146
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Inflation Expectations Indicator
73.4
32. 32 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
2.2%
53.4%31.7%
11.9%
0.8%
Satisfaction with Current Prices
(% of Households)
Very Satisfied
Quite Satisfied
So So
Not Very Satisfied
Not Satisfied At All
Don‘t Know/No Answer
18.5%
53.0%
27.1%
0.8% 0.5%
Inflation Expectations in 12 Months
(% of Households)
Much Higher
A Little Higher
Same
A Little Lower
Much Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
month. More than 70% of respondents expected
prices to be higher in the next 12 months.
Since October, most respondents had thought prices
would rise between 11-24% over the next year, but
this has changed in the past two months. The
proportion of respondents who thought prices would
rise by over 25% represented the majority, likely due
to fears that the depreciation in the currency will
adversely impact inflation.
Regions
All regions showed wide dissatisfaction with the
current level of prices. Among the five major regions,
the Central region showed the greatest dissatisfaction,
although the indicator rose slightly. Consumers’
satisfaction with the price level has trended downwards
after peaking in August 2013.
Respondents from the Volga region had the highest
inflationary expectations over the next 12 months as
almost all of them thought prices would be higher,
although the indicator declined slightly for the first
time since January.
Prices Sentiment
Regions
33. 33MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
73.4
69.6
72.9
63.4
91.3 90.7
All Russia Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West
Siberian
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
144.6 147.4
125.6
158.4
171.6
117.9
All Russia Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West
Siberian
Inflation Expectations Indicator
All Russia Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West
Siberian
Satisfaction with Current Prices
(% of Households)
Very Satisfied
Quite Satisfied
Neutral
Not Very Satisfied
Not Satisfied At All
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberian
Expected Change in Prices in 1 Year
(% of Households)
Much Higher
A Little Higher
Same
A Little Lower
Much Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
34. 34 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
The Interest Rate Expectations Indicator rose to the
highest on record in May to 126.0 from 122.3 in the
previous month, the second consecutive monthly rise.
The indicator has remained above 100 in every month
since the survey started in March 2013, indicating
that more households expected interest rates to rise
rather than fall over the coming year. A result below
100 indicates means more households expect to see
a fall.
In a surprise move, the central bank raised its key rate
to 7.5% from 7% at the end of April, and said that it
does not expect to cut rates in the coming months.
While the bank pointed to the continued high level of
inflation as the main reason for the tightening in
monetary policy, it came soon after S&P cut Russia’s
sovereign rating, and looked like a move to stem the
negative impact, especially on the currency.
Survey participants forecasting that interest rates on
home and car loans would be higher in a year’s time
rose from 38.2% to 43.7% in May. The percentage of
respondents expecting interest rates would be the
same fell below 50% for the first time in 12 months
to 47.9% from 53.1% in April.
Interest Rate Expectations
Hits Record High
Interest Rate Expectations
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Interest Rate
Expectations 123.3 114.9 115.9 122.6 119.2 122.3 126.0
126.0
100
110
120
130
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Interest Rate Expectations Indicator
11.8%
31.9%
47.9%
3.4%
4.9%
Expected Change in Interest Rate in 1 year
(% of Households)
Much Higher
A Little Higher
Same
A Little Lower
Much Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
35. 35MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
The Real Estate Investment Indicator stood at 108.0
in May following three consecutive monthly declines
to 107.2 in April.
The Real Estate Investment Indicator is comprised of
three sub-indicators to gauge sentiment on the
housing market; House Price Expectations, House
Buying Sentiment and House Selling Sentiment.
House Price Expectations rose to 139.3 in May after
a blip in the previous month to 137.7 from March’s
series high of 140.1. Price Expectations have risen
sharply since November and, in spite of this month’s
fall, they were over 18.1% above the same period a
year ago and well above the 100 level, indicating
more people expect prices to increase than fall over
the next six months.
The percentage of respondents who said prices will
go up in the next six months increased to almost 70%
from 67.6% previously, while those saying prices
would “stay the same” fell to 23.5% from 28% in
April.
House Buying Sentiment, a measure of whether it is a
good time in the next six months to buy a house,
declined for the fourth month in a row, to a new series
low of 82.6 from 84.5 in April.
The third component, House Selling Sentiment, which
is a measure of whether it is a good time in the next
six months to sell a house dropped below the
breakeven level to 97.8 from 100.7 in April.
Real Estate Investment
Remains Broadly Stable
Real Estate Investment Sentiment
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Real Estate Invest-
ment Sentiment 106.0 106.9 112.1 111.4 110.0 107.2 108.0
Price Expectations 117.9 130.9 135.7 139.0 140.1 137.7 139.3
House Buying 100.2 92.1 99.7 96.8 87.3 84.5 82.6
House Selling 100.0 102.3 99.0 101.6 97.4 100.7 97.8
108.0
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Real Estate Investment Indicator
0.5
-0.6
0.9
House Price Expectations
House Buying Sentiment
House Selling Sentiment
Real Estate Investment Indicator: Contribution to
Monthly Change (% pt.)
36. 36 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Real Estate Prices: Expected Changes
107.2
137.7
84.5
100.7
108.0
139.3
82.6
97.8
Real Estate
Investment
Indicator
House Price
Expectations
House Buying
Sentiment
House Selling
Sentiment
Real Estate Investment Indicator - Components
All Russia Central North Caucasus Urals Volga
Expected Changes in Real Estate Prices in the Next
6 months (% of Households)
Real Estate Investment
Components and Balances
Regions
The Real Estate Investment Indicator declined only in
the West Siberian region. Consumers in West Siberian
were the least optimistic about real estate investment
and about 90% of them felt it was a bad time to
purchase a house.
April 2014
May 2014
Go Up Dramatically
Go Up Slightly
Stay the Same
Gow Down Slightly
Go Down Sharply
Don‘t Know/No Answer
37. 37MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
House Buying Sentiment
90
95
100
105
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
House Selling Sentiment
24.7%
7.3%
25.2%0.6%
21.3%
20.9%
Reasons for Buying Houses (% of Households)
12.7%
63.9%
16.3%
0.4%
6.6%
Timing for Selling Houses (% of Households)
Excellent Time
Good Time
Neutral
Bad Time
Very Bad Time
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Prices
Income/Purchasing Power
Investment Value
Policy/Interest Rate
Supply and Quality
Others
38. 38 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
The Car Purchase Indicator declined for the third
consecutive month in May to the lowest since the
start of the survey, driven by a fall in consumers’
willingness to buy a car in the following 12 months.
The indicator assesses whether consumers believe it
is a good or bad time to purchase a car and it fell
3.5% to 79.3 in May from 82.2 in April.
The Car Purchase Expectations component, which
measures the willingness to buy a car, declined to
99.1 in May from 103.8 in April, below the 100
expansion/contraction line and the lowest in 2014. It
was the first time since the start of the survey that the
majority of respondents thought it was a bad time to
purchase a car in the next 12 months. A growing
proportion cited high interest rates as a deterrent, in
line with the Central Bank’s surprise rate hike at the
end of April.
According to the Association of European Businesses,
sales of new cars declined considerably in April
compared with a year ago. 226,526 vehicles were
sold in April, 7.7% down on the year and almost 7%
below March’s total. A weaker rouble, which has
pushed up prices for imported cars, is taking its toll
on consumer demand.
The Indicator on Gasoline Prices, which measures
Expectations for the Price of Gasoline in a year and
impacts the Indicator negatively, rose to a series high
of 140.5, slightly above the 139.4 recorded in the
previous month.
Car Purchase
Hits Record Low
70
80
90
100
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Car Purchase Indicator
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Car Purchase Indicator - Components
Car Purchase Expectations
Price of Gasoline
Car Purchase Sentiment
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Car Purchase
Sentiment 87.2 81.0 83.3 88.3 85.1 82.2 79.3
Car Purchase
Expectations 105.5 98.2 104.4 110.5 106.0 103.8 99.1
Price of Gasoline 131.0 136.2 137.7 133.8 135.8 139.4 140.5
79.3
39. 39MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
107.0
74.2
104.9
122.3
63.4
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberian
Car Purchase Expectations - Regions
All Russia Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West
Siberian
Reasons for a Bad Time to Buy a Car
(% of Households)
Prices
Income/Purchasing Power
Policy/Interest Rate
Supply and Quality
Cost of Use/Upkeep
Others
Reasons for a Good Time to Buy a Car
(% of Households)
All Russia Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West
Siberian
Prices
Income/Purchasing Power
Policy/Interest Rate
Supply and Quality
Cost of Use/Upkeep
Others
42.6%
10.2%
44.4%
2.8%
Expected Change in the Price of Gasoline
(% of Households)
Go Up Dramatically
Go Up Slightly
Stay the Same
Gow Down Slightly
Go Down Sharply
Don‘t Know/No Answer
40. 40 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Regions
73.0
91.1
73.1
101.5
72.7
99.2
73.0
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: North Caucasus
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator: North Caucasus
60.8
87.9
59.0
106.0
58.9
98.9
62.7
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: West Siberian
70
80
90
100
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator: West Siberian
41. 41MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
99.8
61.7
92.0
83.7
54.3
47.2
107.6
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: Volga
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator: Volga
96.2
91.9 91.1
99.6
86.0
90.1
101.3
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: Central
90
95
100
105
110
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator: Central
42. 42 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Much Better
A Little Better
About the Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Much Better
A Little Better
About the Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
78.9
86.2
58.0
86.5
81.0
91.2
99.8
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberain
Consumer Indicator Components: Urals
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
(% of Households)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Central North
Caucasus
Urals Volga West Siberian
Consumer Indicator: Urals
Employment Indicator Outlook for the Next 12
Months (% of Households)
43. 43MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Income Groups
70.2
92.8
68.2
87.9
84.1
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
< RUB 480,000 - Components
84.2
85.1
83.6
80.6
77.1
82.9
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
94.7 97.2 94.6
89.1
113.1
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expectations
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
> RUB 480,000 - Components
92.6
94.6
91.2
97.7
103.9
93.6
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
April 2014
May 2014
April 2014
May 2014
44. MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 201444
A selection of comments from the panel of
consumers surveyed over the past month.
What the Panel Said
45. MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014 45
“Salary is decreased approximately by 20%.”
“Growth in prices is faster than salary change.”
“The quality of new constructions is very bad.”
“Russia has worsened its relations with rest of the
world.”
“Household finances are better as my wife started to
work after maternity leave.”
“Our transport expenses have decreased due to an
opening of a new metro station nearby.”
“Costs of a car ownership are significantly higher in
Russia than other European countries.”
“Work conditions are not stable.”
“Western partners plan to decrease amount of trade
deals in 2014.”
“Technology goods for household cost a lot.”
“When rouble is unstable, a real estate purchase
allows to save finances.”
“Our ability to purchase is decreasing because of
growth in prices.”
“Mortgage interest costs are very high.”
“In the situation with Ukraine, the US is ready to
react with serious sanctions.”
“Many goods are available in the market but the
quality is not good.”
“It is better to sell a house than buy due to high real
estate cost.”
“Government does not care about common people.”
“There are evident improvements in the banking and
pharmaceuticals sectors.”
46. MNI China Consumer Report - July 201346
A closer look at the data from the May consumer
survey.
Data Tables
47. 47MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Russia - Central Overview
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - Central
Consumer Indicator
95.4 96.1 93.6 - series low 95.0 -2.5 -2.5%
Current Indicator 97.7 98.5 96.2 - series low 97.5 -2.3 -2.3%
Expectations Indicator 93.8 94.4 91.9 - series low 93.4 -2.5 -2.7%
Personal Finance: Current 92.5 93.4 91.1 - Feb-14 92.3 -2.3 -2.4%
Personal Finance: Expected 102.2 102.8 99.6 - series low 101.5 -3.2 -3.1%
Business Condition: 1 Year 85.6 86.6 86.0 - Mar-14 86.1 -0.6 -0.7%
Business Condition: 5 Years 93.7 94.0 90.1 - Feb-14 92.6 -3.9 -4.1%
Durable Buying Conditions 103.0 103.6 101.3 - Mar-13 102.6 -2.3 -2.2%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 99.1 95.4 88.5 - Mar-13 94.3 -6.9 -7.3%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 113.2 113.2 114.6 Feb-14 - 113.7 1.4 1.2%
Car Purchase Indicator 87.2 84.3 83.3 - Dec-13 84.9 -1.0 -1.3%
Employment Outlook Indicator 93.1 92.2 90.9 - Feb-14 92.1 -1.3 -1.4%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 142.4 145.0 147.4 series high - 144.9 2.4 1.7%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 71.4 67.9 69.6 Mar-14 - 69.6 1.7 2.5%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 113.8 116.6 115.9 - Mar-14 115.4 -0.7 -0.6%
48. 48 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Russia - Urals Overview
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - Urals Consumer Indicator 80.1 77.4 83.3 Feb-14 - 80.3 5.9 7.6%
Current Indicator 78.4 81.0 78.9 - Mar-14 79.4 -2.1 -2.6%
Expectations Indicator 81.3 75.1 86.2 Jan-14 - 80.9 11.1 14.9%
Personal Finance: Current 57.7 62.5 58.0 - Mar-14 59.4 -4.5 -7.1%
Personal Finance: Expected 83.6 88.4 86.5 - Mar-14 86.2 -1.9 -2.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year 71.4 64.6 81.0 Jan-14 - 72.3 16.4 25.3%
Business Condition: 5 Years 88.9 72.2 91.2 Jan-14 - 84.1 19.0 26.4%
Durable Buying Conditions 99.1 99.5 99.8 Feb-14 - 99.5 0.3 0.3%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 100.3 72.8 75.8 Mar-14 - 83.0 3.0 4.0%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 111.0 108.4 109.7 Mar-14 - 109.7 1.3 1.2%
Car Purchase Indicator 85.6 84.4 76.6 - Dec-13 82.2 -7.8 -9.2%
Employment Outlook Indicator 86.7 70.8 76.2 Mar-14 - 77.9 5.4 7.5%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 143.0 152.3 158.4 series high - 151.2 6.1 4.0%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 77.4 62.2 63.4 Mar-14 - 67.7 1.2 2.0%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 122.7 126.5 133.4 Jan-14 - 127.5 6.9 5.5%
49. 49MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Russia - Volga Overview
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - Volga
Consumer Indicator
73.0 78.7 76.9 - Mar-14 76.2 -1.8 -2.3%
Current Indicator 84.7 98.1 99.8 Feb-14 - 94.2 1.7 1.7%
Expectations Indicator 65.2 65.8 61.7 - series low 64.2 -4.1 -6.2%
Personal Finance: Current 72.1 94.8 92.0 - Mar-14 86.3 -2.8 -3.0%
Personal Finance: Expected 70.7 47.5 83.7 Feb-14 - 67.3 36.2 76.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year 55.0 53.8 54.3 Mar-14 - 54.4 0.5 0.9%
Business Condition: 5 Years 69.9 96.0 47.2 - series low 71.0 -48.8 -50.8%
Durable Buying Conditions 97.3 101.5 107.6 Feb-14 - 102.1 6.1 6.0%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 97.7 107.8 47.7 - series low 84.4 -60.1 -55.8%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 124.7 92.5 99.5 Mar-14 - 105.6 7.0 7.6%
Car Purchase Indicator 84.6 83.0 95.8 Feb-14 - 87.8 12.8 15.4%
Employment Outlook Indicator 94.2 93.4 62.7 - Jan-14 83.4 -30.7 -32.9%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 169.5 181.5 171.6 - Mar-14 174.2 -9.9 -5.4%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 86.9 42.3 91.3 Sep-13 - 73.5 49.0 115.8%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 125.2 129.4 158.0 Feb-14 - 137.5 28.6 22.1%
50. 50 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Russia - North Caucasus Overview
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - North Caucasus
Consumer Indicator
84.4 83.4 83.9 Mar-14 - 83.9 0.5 0.5%
Current Indicator 75.8 72.7 73.0 Mar-14 - 73.8 0.3 0.5%
Expectations Indicator 90.1 90.6 91.1 Feb-14 - 90.6 0.5 0.6%
Personal Finance: Current 61.7 69.8 73.1 Jan-14 - 68.2 3.3 4.7%
Personal Finance: Expected 101.4 101.3 101.5 Jan-14 - 101.4 0.2 0.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year 69.2 71.7 72.7 Feb-14 - 71.2 1.0 1.4%
Business Condition: 5 Years 99.9 98.9 99.2 Mar-14 - 99.3 0.3 0.3%
Durable Buying Conditions 90.0 75.6 73.0 - series low 79.5 -2.6 -3.5%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 104.2 103.9 102.9 - Jan-14 103.7 -1.0 -1.0%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 99.7 98.5 100.9 Feb-14 - 99.7 2.4 2.5%
Car Purchase Indicator 78.5 63.7 67.1 Mar-14 - 69.8 3.4 5.3%
Employment Outlook Indicator 99.9 100.6 100.4 - Mar-14 100.3 -0.2 -0.2%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 124.8 125.2 125.6 Jan-14 - 125.2 0.4 0.3%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 73.3 72.3 72.9 Mar-14 - 72.8 0.6 0.8%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 103.0 104.8 104.3 - Mar-14 104.0 -0.5 -0.5%
51. 51MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Russia - West Siberian Overview
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - West Siberian
Consumer Indicator
100.1 94.6 77.1 - series low 90.6 -17.5 -18.5%
Current Indicator 96.3 88.6 60.8 - series low 81.9 -27.8 -31.3%
Expectations Indicator 102.6 98.6 87.9 - series low 96.4 -10.7 -10.8%
Personal Finance: Current 86.2 87.3 59.0 - series low 77.5 -28.3 -32.4%
Personal Finance: Expected 106.9 108.6 106.0 - Feb-14 107.2 -2.6 -2.4%
Business Condition: 1 Year 101.3 88.2 58.9 - series low 82.8 -29.3 -33.3%
Business Condition: 5 Years 99.8 99.0 98.9 - Feb-14 99.2 -0.1 -0.1%
Durable Buying Conditions 106.4 89.8 62.7 - Aug-13 86.3 -27.1 -30.2%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 99.7 98.6 99.4 Mar-14 - 99.2 0.8 0.8%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 95.8 105.7 95.4 - Sep-13 99.0 -10.3 -9.7%
Car Purchase Indicator 83.1 86.3 61.9 - series low 77.1 -24.4 -28.3%
Employment Outlook Indicator 99.6 98.3 99.1 Mar-14 - 99.0 0.8 0.8%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 116.3 118.4 117.9 - Mar-14 117.5 -0.5 -0.4%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 92.1 91.8 90.7 - Jan-14 91.5 -1.1 -1.1%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 149.3 145.8 148.9 Mar-14 - 148.0 3.1 2.1%
52. 52 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
All Russia Overview by Age
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Age 18-34
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 90.1 92.4 89.5 - series low 90.7 -2.9 -3.1%
Current Indicator 91.8 92.6 90.9 - series low 91.8 -1.7 -1.8%
Expectations Indicator 89.0 92.2 88.5 - series low 89.9 -3.7 -4.0%
Personal Finance: Current 82.8 86.5 84.7 - Mar-14 84.7 -1.8 -2.1%
Personal Finance: Expected 96.1 99.1 99.0 - Mar-14 98.1 -0.1 -0.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year 79.7 82.0 78.6 - series low 80.1 -3.4 -4.1%
Business Condition: 5 Years 91.1 95.5 88.0 - Feb-14 91.5 -7.5 -7.9%
Durable Buying Conditions 100.9 98.7 97.1 - Nov-13 98.9 -1.6 -1.7%
Age 35-54
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 87.3 85.5 85.1 - series low 86.0 -0.4 -0.4%
Current Indicator 86.8 88.3 84.4 - series low 86.5 -3.9 -4.5%
Expectations Indicator 87.6 83.6 85.6 Mar-14 - 85.6 2.0 2.4%
Personal Finance: Current 76.0 81.2 74.2 - series low 77.1 -7.0 -8.6%
Personal Finance: Expected 97.0 89.5 90.0 Mar-14 - 92.2 0.5 0.5%
Business Condition: 1 Year 75.8 74.5 77.6 Feb-14 - 76.0 3.1 4.1%
Business Condition: 5 Years 90.1 86.8 89.3 Mar-14 - 88.7 2.5 2.9%
Durable Buying Conditions 97.5 95.4 94.6 - Aug-13 95.8 -0.8 -0.9%
Age 55-64
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 90.3 85.5 83.7 - series low 86.5 -1.8 -2.2%
Current Indicator 87.5 88.5 80.5 - series low 85.5 -8.0 -9.0%
Expectations Indicator 92.1 83.5 85.8 Mar-14 - 87.1 2.3 2.7%
Personal Finance: Current 76.9 82.3 74.1 - Feb-14 77.8 -8.2 -10.0%
Personal Finance: Expected 94.9 86.8 94.1 Mar-14 - 91.9 7.3 8.4%
Business Condition: 1 Year 90.5 74.0 74.2 Mar-14 - 79.6 0.2 0.3%
Business Condition: 5 Years 91.0 89.8 89.0 - Oct-13 89.9 -0.8 -0.8%
Durable Buying Conditions 98.0 94.7 87.0 - Dec-13 93.2 -7.7 -8.2%
53. 53MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
All Russia - Overview by Income
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 87.6 84.2 80.6 - series low 84.1 -3.6 -4.3%
Current Indicator 90.5 85.1 77.1 - series low 84.2 -8.0 -9.3%
Expectations Indicator 85.7 83.6 82.9 - series low 84.1 -0.7 -0.9%
Personal Finance: Current 78.9 77.0 70.2 - series low 75.4 -6.8 -8.8%
Personal Finance: Expected 92.9 87.2 92.8 Mar-14 - 91.0 5.6 6.4%
Business Condition: 1 Year 75.9 71.0 68.2 - series low 71.7 -2.8 -4.0%
Business Condition: 5 Years 88.4 92.7 87.9 - Nov-13 89.7 -4.8 -5.3%
Durable Buying Conditions 102.1 93.2 84.1 - series low 93.1 -9.1 -9.8%
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 91.5 92.6 97.7 Feb-14 - 93.9 5.1 5.6%
Current Indicator 90.3 94.6 103.9 Feb-14 - 96.3 9.3 9.8%
Expectations Indicator 92.3 91.2 93.6 Feb-14 - 92.4 2.4 2.6%
Personal Finance: Current 80.8 90.5 94.7 Feb-14 - 88.7 4.2 4.6%
Personal Finance: Expected 99.4 100.0 97.2 - series low 98.9 -2.8 -2.8%
Business Condition: 1 Year 85.0 84.9 94.6 Feb-14 - 88.2 9.7 11.4%
Business Condition: 5 Years 92.5 88.7 89.1 Mar-14 - 90.1 0.4 0.4%
Durable Buying Conditions 99.8 98.7 113.1 Feb-14 - 103.9 14.4 14.5%
54. 54 MNI Russia Consumer Report - May 2014
Methodology
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Survey is a
wide ranging monthly survey of consumer confidence
across Russia.
Data is collected through computer aided telephone
interviews (CATI), with each interviewee selected
randomly by computer. At least 1,000 interviews are
conducted each month.
The survey adopts a similar methodology to the
University of Michigan survey of U.S. consumer
sentiment.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator is derived from
five questions, two on current conditions and three on
future expectations:
1) Current personal financial situation compared to a
year ago
2) Current willingness to buy major household items
3) Personal financial situation one year from now
4) Overall business conditions one year from now
5) Overall business conditions for the next 5 years
Indicators relating to specific questions in the report
are diffusion indices with 100 representing a neutral
level, meaning positive and negative answers are
equal. Values above 100 indicate increasing positivity
while values below show increasing negativity.
55. Insight and data for better decisions
Discovering trends in Emerging
Markets
MNI’s Emerging Markets Indicators explore attitudes, perspectives and confidence
in Russia, India and China. Our data and monthly reports present an advance
picture of the economic landscape as perceived by businesses and consumers.
Our indicators allow investors, economists, analysts, and companies to identify
economic trends and make informed investment and business decisions. Our data
moves markets.
www.mni-indicators.com