8 JANUARY 2014 . MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rises to 95.7 in December from 94.8 in November. Consumer Confidence Remains Low. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased slightly in December, having hit a series low in November. Confidence remained weak amid continued concerns over inflation, personal finances and a gloomy business outlook.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
London, 20 December 2013. Russian business confidence ended the year at a record low with the MNI Russia Business Indicator falling to 45.5 in December. Production and New Orders fell sharply. While companies were slightly less pessimistic about the next three months compared with November, the overall weakness of the survey points to a further weakening in growth.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in April as concerns over household finances, business conditions, and the spending climate increased due to the situation in Ukraine. The indicator declined for the third straight month and was almost 11% below early-2014 levels. Current personal finances improved slightly but future expectations fell, while both current and expected business conditions weakened. Inflation expectations rose to a record high.
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and in-depth analysis of consumer behaviours within the rapidly changing Russian economy. We provide timely intelligence on the state of an important strategic market.
London, 22 November 2013 MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME. MNI Russia Business Indicator Falls to 51.5 In November from 56.3 in October. Future Expectations Hit A New Low. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined for the second consecutive month, while expectations for the future hit their lowest level since the series began in March.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Falls to 94.1 in February from 99.3 in January.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator declined to the lowest level since the survey started in March 2013, led by a sharp fall in consumers’ views about the current state of their personal finances, with not even the winter games able to boost sentiment.
The MNI Russia Business Sentiment provides insight into the Russian economy. Based on a monthly poll of business executives, it tracks and predicts Russian economic conditions.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, partially fuelled by the upcoming Sochi Winter Olympics. The Consumer Indicator rose to 99.3 in January from 95.7 in December, close to the breakeven 100 level which separates weakness from strength.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
London, 20 December 2013. Russian business confidence ended the year at a record low with the MNI Russia Business Indicator falling to 45.5 in December. Production and New Orders fell sharply. While companies were slightly less pessimistic about the next three months compared with November, the overall weakness of the survey points to a further weakening in growth.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in April as concerns over household finances, business conditions, and the spending climate increased due to the situation in Ukraine. The indicator declined for the third straight month and was almost 11% below early-2014 levels. Current personal finances improved slightly but future expectations fell, while both current and expected business conditions weakened. Inflation expectations rose to a record high.
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and in-depth analysis of consumer behaviours within the rapidly changing Russian economy. We provide timely intelligence on the state of an important strategic market.
London, 22 November 2013 MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME. MNI Russia Business Indicator Falls to 51.5 In November from 56.3 in October. Future Expectations Hit A New Low. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined for the second consecutive month, while expectations for the future hit their lowest level since the series began in March.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Falls to 94.1 in February from 99.3 in January.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator declined to the lowest level since the survey started in March 2013, led by a sharp fall in consumers’ views about the current state of their personal finances, with not even the winter games able to boost sentiment.
The MNI Russia Business Sentiment provides insight into the Russian economy. Based on a monthly poll of business executives, it tracks and predicts Russian economic conditions.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, partially fuelled by the upcoming Sochi Winter Olympics. The Consumer Indicator rose to 99.3 in January from 95.7 in December, close to the breakeven 100 level which separates weakness from strength.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose for the first time in five months in June, up 2.2% from May, though it remained below year-ago levels. Consumer sentiment increased across most regions except the Urals, where it declined to a record low. Confidence rose in lower income groups but fell slightly among high earners. Respondents were more optimistic about business conditions and purchasing durable goods in the near term, but inflation expectations also reached a new high.
The document summarizes two possible scenarios for Japan's economy following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's announcement to dissolve parliament and hold new elections in December 2014. Scenario 1 predicts that Abe's economic policies (Abenomics) could be successful in stimulating growth if he remains in power after the election. Scenario 2 suggests that Japan's recession may continue if the election is costly and fails to build policy consensus, further weakening the economy and potentially forcing Abe to resign. Both scenarios discuss the challenges of Japan's large public debt and aging population.
This document provides an economic commentary and outlook from Scotiabank. It discusses several topics:
- Chinese exports are expected to resume growing in the 6% range in May as distortions from currency movements drop out, and China takes steps to support growth.
- The Ontario election this week adds uncertainty, while Canadian housing starts and manufacturing data are expected to provide modest signals.
- Upcoming US retail sales data may show pent-up consumer demand being released in Q2 following weather-impacted spending in Q1, supporting expectations for strong Q2 GDP growth. Employment and household finances have greatly improved in the US.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in May amid rising concerns about household finances, spending on big ticket items, and long-term business conditions. Consumer confidence declined across all income groups, though higher income households were less affected. Consumers expressed growing worries about current economic conditions and the future path of inflation, interest rates, and employment prospects. Spending indicators such as durable buying conditions and car purchases also fell as consumers grew more cautious.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013, its lowest since 2009, and that Russia's annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, forcing a rise in interest rates and downward revisions to growth forecasts.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Economic growth remains weak at 0.9% in Q1 2014, down from 1.3% in Q1 2013, due to sanctions and a weakening currency. Inflation rose in May to its highest since 2011. Industrial production grew 2.8% in May, led by a 4.4% rise in manufacturing. However, car sales declined 12.2% in May from a year ago as higher inflation and a weaker ruble hurt consumer spending. The economic outlook remains challenging amid geopolitical tensions.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine over unpaid bills. Russia's economy faces issues like a weakening currency, high inflation, and stalled growth. GDP growth slowed to just 0.9% in Q1 2014, well below forecasts. Industrial production grew in May but car sales declined sharply. Sanctions and tensions continue to weigh on the economic outlook for Russia.
London, 20 December 2013. MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME The MNI Russia Business Indicator falls to a record low of 45.5 in December. Production and New Orders fell sharply.
Russian consumer sentiment recovered slightly in June after hitting a record low in May, though sentiment remained lower than the previous year due to weak economic growth and Russia's actions in Crimea. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.2% in June, but was still 9.6% below the previous year's level. While purchasing intentions for household goods increased slightly, expectations for personal finances declined to a new low. Inflation expectations also rose to a new high, exacerbating consumers' concerns about high prices and interest rates on loans. The small recovery in sentiment in June was welcomed, but the economist noted that the economic backdrop remained gloomy.
- Stocks ended 2013 strongly but started 2014 weakly, dropping on the first trading day. However, one day trends do not determine the year's direction.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 3% for the first time since 2011 but higher rates have not negatively impacted stocks so far.
- Gold rebounded sharply against the normal pattern of declining with higher rates, which may indicate anticipation of future inflation.
- Chinese and emerging market stocks declined on weak economic data, raising concerns about the health of the global recovery.
The document provides an analysis of emerging markets and currency forecasts for selected countries. Key points include:
- Emerging market currencies declined in June due to decreased US dollar liquidity and slowing China growth but some currencies may now be undervalued.
- The US Federal Reserve did not taper quantitative easing as expected, lessening concerns about a rapid cutback in stimulus.
- Currencies of countries with active central banks and large reserves like India and Brazil are viewed positively, while Turkey's currency is viewed negatively due to a weakening current account and battle with inflation.
- Country analyses and 3-month currency forecasts are provided for Russia, Poland, Turkey, and South Africa. Russia and Turkey face economic challenges
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell 5.4% in March to its lowest level since the survey began in 2013, as concerns over household finances, short-term business conditions, and spending declined sharply due to worries over Russia's actions in Ukraine. Current personal finances reached a series low while expectations for business conditions in one year also fell sharply. Overall consumer confidence in Russia has dropped more than 10% since the start of 2014.
The IMF recently reported that Russia has entered a recession and warned that economic growth will further contract if Western sanctions are increased. The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell sharply in May due to the impact of sanctions over Russia's actions in Crimea. Industrial production growth increased in April but overall economic growth remains weak, forecast at just 0.5% for 2014 compared to original predictions of 2.5% growth. Russia signed a $400 billion gas deal with China aimed at boosting infrastructure investment.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document is a monthly business report from MNI Indicators on business sentiment in Russia. Some key points:
- The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose in July to the highest level in three months, though it remains below levels at the start of 2014 due to economic weakness and geopolitical tensions from Russia's actions in Ukraine.
- Production conditions for large Russian companies slumped to a seven-month low in July, while new orders and export orders improved for the second straight month.
- Companies have been reducing inventories but the pace of decline has slowed, with the inventories indicator just below neutral levels. Input prices declined for the fourth month in a row.
- Access to credit
How much should we worry about the chinese stock market collapseAmol Patil
- The Chinese stock market has fallen significantly over the past month, dropping 31.7% since July. The Chinese government has taken drastic measures to try and stop the falling stock prices.
- While a falling stock market in China could negatively impact the global economy due to China's role as a major trading partner and consumer of commodities, the exposure of Chinese households to the stock market is relatively low. Most Chinese households' financial assets are held in cash and bank deposits rather than stocks.
- The stock market crash reflects the fact that China's economic growth rate has been slowing in recent years after a long period of double-digit growth. The crash was likely exacerbated by the unsustainable rise in stock prices due to
The Russian economy saw weak growth of 1.4% in 2013 and is expected to grow by only 2.5% in 2014, with inflation remaining high at 6.5% in December. Industrial production contracted by 0.2% over the full year 2013 but rose slightly in December, while retail sales and investment growth slowed. The Russian currency has come under pressure recently amid turmoil in emerging markets. The central bank is allowing the rouble to depreciate to boost growth.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.0 points in July to 91.1 after hitting a record low in May, but remains below year-ago levels. Consumers felt better about current finances but were downbeat on the future economy. High inflation remains a key concern despite a slight easing in expectations. Tighter monetary policy and new sanctions will likely weaken growth and sentiment going forward.
The document is a monthly report by MNI Indicators on consumer sentiment in India for July 2014. Some key points:
- The MNI India Consumer Indicator fell slightly from June as consumers were less optimistic about current conditions and future expectations.
- Five of the six components that make up the indicator declined, with personal finances seeing the largest drop.
- Respondents were less confident about their current and future personal finances despite tax measures in the recent budget.
- Sentiment on real estate fell for the fifth straight month while the car purchase indicator rose after an extension of tax cuts.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose for the first time in five months in June, up 2.2% from May, though it remained below year-ago levels. Consumer sentiment increased across most regions except the Urals, where it declined to a record low. Confidence rose in lower income groups but fell slightly among high earners. Respondents were more optimistic about business conditions and purchasing durable goods in the near term, but inflation expectations also reached a new high.
The document summarizes two possible scenarios for Japan's economy following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's announcement to dissolve parliament and hold new elections in December 2014. Scenario 1 predicts that Abe's economic policies (Abenomics) could be successful in stimulating growth if he remains in power after the election. Scenario 2 suggests that Japan's recession may continue if the election is costly and fails to build policy consensus, further weakening the economy and potentially forcing Abe to resign. Both scenarios discuss the challenges of Japan's large public debt and aging population.
This document provides an economic commentary and outlook from Scotiabank. It discusses several topics:
- Chinese exports are expected to resume growing in the 6% range in May as distortions from currency movements drop out, and China takes steps to support growth.
- The Ontario election this week adds uncertainty, while Canadian housing starts and manufacturing data are expected to provide modest signals.
- Upcoming US retail sales data may show pent-up consumer demand being released in Q2 following weather-impacted spending in Q1, supporting expectations for strong Q2 GDP growth. Employment and household finances have greatly improved in the US.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in May amid rising concerns about household finances, spending on big ticket items, and long-term business conditions. Consumer confidence declined across all income groups, though higher income households were less affected. Consumers expressed growing worries about current economic conditions and the future path of inflation, interest rates, and employment prospects. Spending indicators such as durable buying conditions and car purchases also fell as consumers grew more cautious.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013, its lowest since 2009, and that Russia's annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, forcing a rise in interest rates and downward revisions to growth forecasts.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Economic growth remains weak at 0.9% in Q1 2014, down from 1.3% in Q1 2013, due to sanctions and a weakening currency. Inflation rose in May to its highest since 2011. Industrial production grew 2.8% in May, led by a 4.4% rise in manufacturing. However, car sales declined 12.2% in May from a year ago as higher inflation and a weaker ruble hurt consumer spending. The economic outlook remains challenging amid geopolitical tensions.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine over unpaid bills. Russia's economy faces issues like a weakening currency, high inflation, and stalled growth. GDP growth slowed to just 0.9% in Q1 2014, well below forecasts. Industrial production grew in May but car sales declined sharply. Sanctions and tensions continue to weigh on the economic outlook for Russia.
London, 20 December 2013. MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME The MNI Russia Business Indicator falls to a record low of 45.5 in December. Production and New Orders fell sharply.
Russian consumer sentiment recovered slightly in June after hitting a record low in May, though sentiment remained lower than the previous year due to weak economic growth and Russia's actions in Crimea. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.2% in June, but was still 9.6% below the previous year's level. While purchasing intentions for household goods increased slightly, expectations for personal finances declined to a new low. Inflation expectations also rose to a new high, exacerbating consumers' concerns about high prices and interest rates on loans. The small recovery in sentiment in June was welcomed, but the economist noted that the economic backdrop remained gloomy.
- Stocks ended 2013 strongly but started 2014 weakly, dropping on the first trading day. However, one day trends do not determine the year's direction.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 3% for the first time since 2011 but higher rates have not negatively impacted stocks so far.
- Gold rebounded sharply against the normal pattern of declining with higher rates, which may indicate anticipation of future inflation.
- Chinese and emerging market stocks declined on weak economic data, raising concerns about the health of the global recovery.
The document provides an analysis of emerging markets and currency forecasts for selected countries. Key points include:
- Emerging market currencies declined in June due to decreased US dollar liquidity and slowing China growth but some currencies may now be undervalued.
- The US Federal Reserve did not taper quantitative easing as expected, lessening concerns about a rapid cutback in stimulus.
- Currencies of countries with active central banks and large reserves like India and Brazil are viewed positively, while Turkey's currency is viewed negatively due to a weakening current account and battle with inflation.
- Country analyses and 3-month currency forecasts are provided for Russia, Poland, Turkey, and South Africa. Russia and Turkey face economic challenges
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell 5.4% in March to its lowest level since the survey began in 2013, as concerns over household finances, short-term business conditions, and spending declined sharply due to worries over Russia's actions in Ukraine. Current personal finances reached a series low while expectations for business conditions in one year also fell sharply. Overall consumer confidence in Russia has dropped more than 10% since the start of 2014.
The IMF recently reported that Russia has entered a recession and warned that economic growth will further contract if Western sanctions are increased. The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell sharply in May due to the impact of sanctions over Russia's actions in Crimea. Industrial production growth increased in April but overall economic growth remains weak, forecast at just 0.5% for 2014 compared to original predictions of 2.5% growth. Russia signed a $400 billion gas deal with China aimed at boosting infrastructure investment.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document is a monthly business report from MNI Indicators on business sentiment in Russia. Some key points:
- The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose in July to the highest level in three months, though it remains below levels at the start of 2014 due to economic weakness and geopolitical tensions from Russia's actions in Ukraine.
- Production conditions for large Russian companies slumped to a seven-month low in July, while new orders and export orders improved for the second straight month.
- Companies have been reducing inventories but the pace of decline has slowed, with the inventories indicator just below neutral levels. Input prices declined for the fourth month in a row.
- Access to credit
How much should we worry about the chinese stock market collapseAmol Patil
- The Chinese stock market has fallen significantly over the past month, dropping 31.7% since July. The Chinese government has taken drastic measures to try and stop the falling stock prices.
- While a falling stock market in China could negatively impact the global economy due to China's role as a major trading partner and consumer of commodities, the exposure of Chinese households to the stock market is relatively low. Most Chinese households' financial assets are held in cash and bank deposits rather than stocks.
- The stock market crash reflects the fact that China's economic growth rate has been slowing in recent years after a long period of double-digit growth. The crash was likely exacerbated by the unsustainable rise in stock prices due to
The Russian economy saw weak growth of 1.4% in 2013 and is expected to grow by only 2.5% in 2014, with inflation remaining high at 6.5% in December. Industrial production contracted by 0.2% over the full year 2013 but rose slightly in December, while retail sales and investment growth slowed. The Russian currency has come under pressure recently amid turmoil in emerging markets. The central bank is allowing the rouble to depreciate to boost growth.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.0 points in July to 91.1 after hitting a record low in May, but remains below year-ago levels. Consumers felt better about current finances but were downbeat on the future economy. High inflation remains a key concern despite a slight easing in expectations. Tighter monetary policy and new sanctions will likely weaken growth and sentiment going forward.
The document is a monthly report by MNI Indicators on consumer sentiment in India for July 2014. Some key points:
- The MNI India Consumer Indicator fell slightly from June as consumers were less optimistic about current conditions and future expectations.
- Five of the six components that make up the indicator declined, with personal finances seeing the largest drop.
- Respondents were less confident about their current and future personal finances despite tax measures in the recent budget.
- Sentiment on real estate fell for the fifth straight month while the car purchase indicator rose after an extension of tax cuts.
London, 24 December 2013. The MNI India Business Indicator fell to 57.8 in December from 64.6 in November, the lowest since July. Eleven out of 15 current conditions indicators fell, a disappointing end to what has been a tough year for businesses.
The MNI India Consumer Indicator remained broadly stable in April at 125.2, with consumers in wait-and-see mode before the May 12 general election. The Current Indicator decreased slightly while the Expectations Indicator was stable. Only 40.8% of respondents thought economic growth would improve after the election, with many concerned about government stability and type of coalition. Sentiment improved in seven of ten cities but declined in Delhi, Pune, and Surat. Perceptions of current business conditions and expectations for future conditions increased in April.
The document summarizes India's economic landscape in July 2014. It discusses key points from the government's first budget, recent economic data, and the state of economic growth. The budget aimed to boost growth to 7-8% by promoting manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and reducing the fiscal deficit. However, it lacked details on subsidy reform and GST implementation. Recent data showed easing inflation but industrial growth remains subdued, with GDP at 4.6% in the last quarter. The government forecasts 5.4-5.9% growth this fiscal year but weaker external factors may limit growth to the lower end.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, as current conditions improved sharply. Consumer sentiment rose in eight of the ten major cities surveyed, while concerns over inflation continued to worsen despite a slowdown in official inflation data. The Employment Outlook Indicator deteriorated considerably in January.
Russia's consumer sentiment hit a new low in May according to MNI's Russia Consumer Indicator, which fell to 87.2 from 88.5 in April, its lowest level since the series began in 2013. Consumers grew increasingly pessimistic about their personal finances, ability to purchase big ticket items, and long-term business conditions amid high inflation, increased loan costs, and expectations that Russia will fall into recession due to its tense situation with Ukraine. Most components of the indicator declined to new lows in May as consumers faced rising prices and interest rates and anticipated a weakening labor market and contracting economy.
London, 27 November 2013 MNI INDIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. NEW DELHI TIME. MNI India Business Indicator Increased to 64.6 in November from 59.8 in October. Production and New Orders Recover. Thirteen out of the 15 current conditions indicators included in the report increased in November. Employment was the only indicator to decline and Inventories remained unchanged compared with October.
London 29 November 2013. MNI India Consumer Indicator Rises to 122.5 in November from 120.2 in October. Inflation Expectations Hit a Record High. The MNI India Consumer Indicator rose for the second consecutive month in November, the highest since June, led by an improvement in personal finances. The November rise was driven by an increase in three out of the five components which make up the India Consumer Indicator.
London, 23 December 2013. The MNI India Consumer Indicator rose for third consecutive month in December, as consumers reported it was a better time to purchase a large household good and that they expected their finances to improve in the future. Inflation expectations fell after November peak.
The document summarizes the economic landscape in Russia in April 2014. It notes that Russian GDP contracted in Q1 2014 and full-year growth forecasts have been revised down to just 0.5% due to sanctions and turmoil in Ukraine. Industrial production growth slowed in March while car sales were stable. Inflation remains high and the central bank does not plan to ease monetary policy. The economic outlook is uncertain as tensions in Ukraine continue.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and up-to-date intelligence on the state of the Indian economy. It provides a monthly snapshot of market activities as perceived by local consumers.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment serves as the basis for its own dedicated report, the MNI India Consumer Report. This monthly report delivers in-depth analysis of consumers‘ attitudes, perspectives and confidence across the country.
Written by our in-house team of economists, the MNI India Consumer Report blends the analysis of consumer confidence with relevant commentaries. It allows users to develop a thorough understanding of the Indian market and get direct access to consumers‘ views on the economy and its future.
Russian business sentiment fell sharply in May 2014 to its lowest level since December 2013, as the country's military intervention in Crimea and the resulting sanctions from Western countries took a toll on businesses. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined to 49.2 in May, below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. New orders, production, and export orders all contracted further. While companies remained optimistic about their future financial positions, their overall financial health indicator reached a series low. The chief economist of MNI Indicators stated that the survey showed the impact of tensions in Ukraine was clearly affecting Russian companies.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, driven by concerns over the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013 and its annexation of Crimea has thrown the economy into turmoil, with the possibility of recession.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined in March. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013 and its annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, with the stock market plunging and sanctions from Western nations.
Russian business sentiment recovered slightly in June from a five month low in May, though it remained considerably lower than at the start of 2014 due to sanctions and economic slowdown. The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose to 50.5 in June from 49.2 in May but was 12.6% below June 2013 levels. Both production and new orders rose marginally in June while export orders increased but remained below the breakeven level of 50. The chief economist commented that while tensions in Ukraine continued, calmer rhetoric and actions on sanctions eased business concerns.
The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined slightly in March driven by falls in both current and future expectations, following a rise to a 14-month high in February. The indicator fell 1.6% in March to 125.8 from 127.8 in February. Consumer sentiment was over 5% higher than a year ago. The decline was led by worsening views on personal finances and current business conditions, though optimism about longer-term business conditions increased. Regional sentiment declined in South and East India but rose in North, West and Central regions.
London, 4 March 2013 MNI INDIA CONSUMER SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. NEW DELHI TIME The MNI India Consumer Indicator increased to the highest level since December 2012, driven by a rise in both current and future expectations.
Russian business sentiment improved in July according to a survey by MNI Indicators, with the MNI Russia Business Indicator rising to 54.6 from 50.5 in June. While the initial impact of sanctions has faded, sentiment remains below levels at the start of 2014. New orders and export orders increased in July but production slumped to a seven-month low amid a weak economic backdrop. The outlook remains gloomy as high inflation and interest rates suggest the economy will barely grow in 2014, and further meaningful sanctions could push growth into negative territory.
The MNI India Business Sentiment is an authoritative indicator of the current pace of overall growth in India. It is based on a monthly poll of Indian executives and delivers an update on all the latest business trends.
The Chicago Business Barometer fell slightly to 54.4 in August from 54.7 in July. While production and new orders softened, they remained above their 12-month averages and up from earlier in the year. Companies continued building inventories at the fastest pace since November 2014 in anticipation of stronger demand in the fourth quarter. Employment rose in August but remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month, and companies do not plan to expand their workforces in the near term.
The Chicago Business Barometer made a positive start to the third quarter, jumping above 50 after two
months in contraction, leaving economic activity expanding at the fastest pace since January.
- The Chicago Business Barometer remained below 50 in March, pointing to a slowdown in the US economy. The Barometer increased slightly to 46.3 but was still in contraction territory.
- Production increased in March but remained below 50, while new orders and order backlogs rose slightly but remained contracted. Employment also rose slightly.
- While some of the weakness may be due to weather and port strikes, the continued weakness in March suggests a wider slowdown. Purchasers expect orders to pick up in the next quarter but demand remained soft in the first quarter.
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 5.4 points to 60.8 in November from a one year high of 66.2 in October driven by a double digit drop in New Orders.
- The Chicago Business Barometer rose 5.7 points to 66.2 in October, the highest level in one year, fueled by a sharp gain in new orders, which increased to the highest since October 2013.
- Production and employment also strengthened, and order backlogs expanded faster, suggesting continued strong demand and solid economic growth.
- While inflationary pressures eased due to lower oil prices, the domestic economy is growing firmly according to the survey results.
Embargoed until 9:45 a.m. ET, 30 September 2014 The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.8 points to a still robust 60.5 in September, as Production and New Orders slowed while fims reported a record rise in stocks and a sharp increase in input prices.
Embargoed until 9:45 AM ET, 29 August 2014 The Chicago Business Barometer surged 11.7 points to 64.3 in August, regaining all the lost ground seen in July, and pointing to continued strength in the US economy.
Russian consumer sentiment increased slightly in July according to a consumer sentiment index. The index rose 2 points to 91.1 in July from 89.1 in June, though sentiment remains below levels from earlier in the year prior to Russia's annexation of Crimea. Consumers felt better about their current economic circumstances but were still downbeat about the future outlook. Pessimism is expected to continue as sanctions over Ukraine's crisis further impact Russia's already weakening economy.
Consumer sentiment in China increased slightly in July according to the Westpac MNI China CSI. The index rose 1.9% due to a sharp recovery in long-term business expectations, though confidence remained subdued. Four of the five components rose between June and July, with the largest increase seen in expectations for business conditions over the next five years. Bank deposits remained the preferred savings vehicle among consumers, followed by wealth management products and real estate.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose 3.3% in June to 126.2, its highest level since February, as consumers were more confident about future economic growth and household incomes under the new government. All components of the indicator increased except durable buying conditions. Consumers were more optimistic about their personal finances, current and future business conditions, employment outlook, and inflation expectations. The interest rates expectations indicator and car purchase indicator also rose. However, confidence in the real estate market fell for the fourth straight month.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose to 126.2 in June, its highest level since February, as consumers were more confident about future economic growth and incomes under the new Modi-led government. All components of the indicator increased except durable buying conditions. Business conditions expectations for both the short-term and long-term hit record highs, with the government and its policies cited as reasons for optimism. Consumer inflation expectations fell to their lowest since December 2012. The chief economist commented that the rising sentiment is due to the recovery in the Indian economy and optimism around Prime Minister Modi's ability to revive growth.
The Chicago Business Barometer eased slightly in June but remained at a high level, pointing to a rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter following a sharp fall in the first quarter. While new orders fell from a seven-month high, production rose firmly above 70, close to its level in April. The strength in production and new orders underpinned the Barometer during the second quarter. Some respondents indicated they built inventories ahead of a possible strike by longshoremen at ports. The chief economist commented that while growth in the first half of the year will be slower than initially expected, upcoming data in the third quarter will be important in determining the timing of the first interest rate hike.
Chinese consumer sentiment fell sharply in June according to the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Index, which dropped 7.1% to its lowest level in nearly a year. Expectations for future business conditions hit a record low as consumers reported concerns about their personal finances and the economic outlook. While sentiment remained above the breakeven level, the decline signals caution about becoming overly optimistic on China's economic growth despite signs of stabilization.
The document summarizes recent economic developments in India. Business confidence rose to its highest level since November 2012 due to optimism around the new Prime Minister's plans. Industrial production grew 3.4% in April, the highest in 13 months, led by manufacturing. However, growth remains subdued at 4.6% and below normal monsoon could push up food prices, challenging interest rate cuts. The new government aims to boost investment, manufacturing and foreign inflows to revive the economy.
The MNI India Business Indicator rose to 69.2 in June from 67.0 in May, reflecting higher optimism among manufacturing companies who expect the new Prime Minister to boost growth. New orders and order backlogs increased to their highest levels in months, while companies planned to expand employment and saw lower inflation. The survey showed signs of a recovery in demand and business confidence in India.
The consumer sentiment indicator in India fell to 122.1 in May, its lowest level since January, as consumers were less optimistic about the future. Four of the five components of the indicator declined, with only durable buying conditions rising. The chief economist noted that confidence had fallen after gains in recent months and that they would have to see the June results to understand the impact of Modi's election as prime minister. However, stock investment indicators rose to a high as investors hoped Modi's reforms would boost economic growth.
The consumer sentiment indicator in India fell to its lowest level since January as consumers were less optimistic about the future. The report was conducted before the election results that showed a clear mandate for Narendra Modi, though polls had pointed to his win. While perceptions about current business conditions deteriorated, consumers were hopeful the new Modi-led government would implement business friendly policies and improve employment conditions and prices. The stock investment indicator reached a series high as stock prices continued rising.
More from MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group (19)
The report *State of D2C in India: A Logistics Update* talks about the evolving dynamics of the d2C landscape with a particular focus on how brands navigate the complexities of logistics. Third Party Logistics enablers emerge indispensable partners in facilitating the growth journey of D2C brands, offering cost-effective solutions tailored to their specific needs. As D2C brands continue to expand, they encounter heightened operational complexities with logistics standing out as a significant challenge. Logistics not only represents a substantial cost component for the brands but also directly influences the customer experience. Establishing efficient logistics operations while keeping costs low is therefore a crucial objective for brands. The report highlights how 3PLs are meeting the rising demands of D2C brands, supporting their expansion both online and offline, and paving the way for sustainable, scalable growth in this fast-paced market.
Discover the Beauty and Functionality of The Expert Remodeling Serviceobriengroupinc04
Unlock your kitchen's true potential with expert remodeling services from O'Brien Group Inc. Transform your space into a functional, modern, and luxurious haven with their experienced professionals. From layout reconfiguration to high-end upgrades, they deliver stunning results tailored to your style and needs. Visit obriengroupinc.com to elevate your kitchen's beauty and functionality today.
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART
AI Transformation Playbook: Thinking AI-First for Your BusinessArijit Dutta
I dive into how businesses can stay competitive by integrating AI into their core processes. From identifying the right approach to building collaborative teams and recognizing common pitfalls, this guide has got you covered. AI transformation is a journey, and this playbook is here to help you navigate it successfully.
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART
63662490260Kalyan chart, satta matta matka 143, satta matka jodi fix , matka boss OTC 420, Indian Satta, India matka, matka ank, spbossmatka, online satta matka game play, live satta matka results, fix fix fix satta namber, free satta matka games, Kalyan matka jodi chart, Kalyan weekly final anl matka 420
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN CHART
Adani Group's Active Interest In Increasing Its Presence in the Cement Manufa...Adani case
Time and again, the business group has taken up new business ventures, each of which has allowed it to expand its horizons further and reach new heights. Even amidst the Adani CBI Investigation, the firm has always focused on improving its cement business.
High-Quality IPTV Monthly Subscription for $15advik4387
Experience high-quality entertainment with our IPTV monthly subscription for just $15. Access a vast array of live TV channels, movies, and on-demand shows with crystal-clear streaming. Our reliable service ensures smooth, uninterrupted viewing at an unbeatable price. Perfect for those seeking premium content without breaking the bank. Start streaming today!
https://rb.gy/f409dk
Efficient PHP Development Solutions for Dynamic Web ApplicationsHarwinder Singh
Unlock the full potential of your web projects with our expert PHP development solutions. From robust backend systems to dynamic front-end interfaces, we deliver scalable, secure, and high-performance applications tailored to your needs. Trust our skilled team to transform your ideas into reality with custom PHP programming, ensuring seamless functionality and a superior user experience.
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART INDIA MATKA KALYAN SATTA MATKA 420 INDIAN MATKA SATTA KING MATKA FIX JODI FIX FIX FIX SATTA NAMBAR MATKA INDIA SATTA BATTA
Prescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPTFreelance
Business analysis - Prescriptive analytics Introduction to Prescriptive analytics
Prescriptive Modeling
Non Linear Optimization
Demonstrating Business Performance Improvement
3. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Contents
4
Editorial
6
Executive Summary
12
Economic Landscape
16
Indicators
17
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
25
Personal Finances
27
Business Conditions
31
Durable Buying Conditions
32
Employment Outlook
33
Prices Sentiment
36
Interest Rates Expectations
37
Real Estate Investment
40
Car Purchase
43
Consumer Indicator - Regions
46
Consumer Indicator - Income Groups
50
Data Tables
58
Methodology
3
4. 4
Spitzzeile Titel
Facing the truth
Plans to dig Russia out of its hole are thin on the
ground, and the longer this stagflation sets in, the
more difficult it will be to escape.
5. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Once the festive season is over, it would be nice to
bear some good tidings at the end of what has been a
dismal year for the Russian economy. Unfortunately
our insights from some of Russia’s largest companies
from our sister business survey revealed that business
confidence hit the lowest since our survey began in
March, with production and new orders heading
lower still. Meanwhile, this edition of our consumer
sentiment survey for December shows consumer
confidence is only just above the record low seen in
November.
In order to fix a problem you first need to admit you
have one, and while various ministers have
acknowledged that the Russian economic model is
broken, President Vladimir Putin has, until now,
continued to blame the downturn on the global
slowdown. Given the continued economic malaise,
however, even Mr Putin has been forced to publicly
change tack. “Of course we are experiencing the
consequences of the global crisis, but we have to say
openly: the main reasons for the economic slowdown
are not external but internal,” he said in the annual
state-of-the-nation speech in Moscow.
Solving the problem won’t be so easy, with Russia
ending 2013 with growth at the lowest for four years
and inflation at 6.5% in November – a kind of
stagflation-light. And while Russia’s leaders have
recognised the issue, plans to actually dig Russia out
of its hole are thin on the ground, and the longer this
stagflation sets in, the more difficult it will be to
escape.
The new head of the central bank, Elvira Nabiullina,
has so far stuck to her guns, refusing to ease monetary
policy in an effort to boost growth, given the continued
high rate of inflation. A fall in food price inflation and
at least some easing in inflation expectations could
give the central bank room to cut interest rates early
in the New Year. Monetary policy, though, is not the
answer to Russia’s ills, which lie more on the supply
side.
Low productivity, lack of investment, corruption, oil
dependency, capital flight and poor demographics are
just some of the issues the government needs to
address in 2014 if it wants to stem the economic
decline.
Philip Uglow
Chief Economist
MNI Indicators
5
6. 6
MNI China Consumer Report - July 2013
Executive Summary
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased
slightly in December, led by an improvement in
both Current and Expectations Indicators.
7. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased slightly
to 95.7 in December from a record low of 94.8 in the
previous month, led by a modest rise in respondents’
willingness to purchase a large household item and
their expectations for business conditions in five
years. However, the indicator remained below the
series average of 97.9.
A reading below 100 indicates increasing negativity
among consumers, while values above show
increasing positivity. Consumer sentiment has
remained below the 100 breakeven level since the
survey started in March.
Both Current and Expectations indicators increased in
December. The Current Indicator increased 1.5% on
the month to 95.7 compared with 94.3 in November.
The Expectations Indicator rose slightly to 95.7 from
95.1 in November.
Concerns over inflation continued to worsen in
December as the number of respondents who were
not satisfied with the current level of prices increased
further, and there was a rise in expectations for
inflation over the coming year as well.
Led by a significant decline in house buying sentiment,
the Real Estate Investment Indicator fell for the second
consecutive month, having hit a record high in
October.
The Car Purchase Indicator registered its fourth
consecutive decline in December as car purchase
expectations fell further into contraction and
expectations for the price of gasoline increased.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator - Components
Both Current and Expected Personal Finances rose
slightly for the second consecutive month, following
steep declines in October.
The Consumer Indicator rose in five out of the 10
major cities surveyed; Rostov-on-Don, Saint
Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk and Omsk.
Perceptions about the current state of business and
expectations in a year‘s time worsened while longer
term expectations improved.
The Employment Outlook Indicator, which measures
opinion on the outlook for the employment market
over the next 12 months, remained broadly stable in
December having fallen below the 100 breakeven
level in November.
0
Business Conditions in 5
Years
Business Conditions in 1
Year
Durable Buying
Conditions
Personal Finances:
Expectations
Optimism was greatest among the young in December,
with confidence increasing only for the 18-34 age
range, while it fell for the older groups.
100
Personal Finance:
Current
The Durable Buying Conditions Indicator, which
measures whether respondents think it is a good or
bad time to buy a large household good, recovered in
December following a sharp fall in November.
7
8. 8
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
All Russia - Overview
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
99.4
94.8
95.7
Oct-13
-
96.6
0.9
1.0%
Current Indicator
99.2
94.3
95.7
Oct-13
-
96.4
1.4
1.5%
Expectations Indicator
99.5
95.1
95.7
Oct-13
-
96.7
0.6
0.7%
Personal Finances: Current
91.0
92.0
92.5
Sep-13
-
91.8
0.5
0.6%
Personal Finances: Expectations
101.2
101.7
101.9
Sep-13
-
101.6
0.2
0.3%
Business Condition: 1 Year
101.5
94.9
94.4
-
Mar-13
96.9
-0.5
-0.5%
Business Condition: 5 Years
95.8
88.7
90.8
Oct-13
-
91.7
2.1
2.4%
Durable Buying Conditions
107.4
96.6
98.9
Oct-13
-
101.0
2.3
2.3%
94.5
97.4
94.9
-
Oct-13
95.6
-2.5
-2.6%
113.0
110.5
106.9
-
Jul-13
110.2
-3.6
-3.3%
85.1
81.9
81.0
-
series low
82.7
-0.9
-1.1%
Employment Outlook Indicator
100.4
98.1
98.2
Oct-13
-
98.9
0.1
0.1%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
139.7
136.8
138.2
Oct-13
-
138.3
1.4
1.0%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
80.5
73.5
71.8
-
series low
75.2
-1.7
-2.4%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
115.6
115.5
114.9
-
Sep-13
115.4
-0.6
-0.5%
Current Business Conditions Indicator
Real Estate Investment Indicator
Car Purchase Indicator
9. 9
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
All Russia - Summary
2013
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
97.2
99.1
97.5
98.5
99.5
99.9
97.4
99.4
94.8
95.7
Current Indicator
93.8
98.2
96.2
98.4
100.5
99.2
95.8
99.2
94.3
95.7
Expectations Indicator
99.4
99.7
98.3
98.6
98.8
100.3
98.4
99.5
95.1
95.7
Personal Finances: Current
94.7
97.5
96.3
99.5
103.2
102.1
95.3
91.0
92.0
92.5
109.2
105.4
105.5
102.4
103.4
104.9
105.4
101.2
101.7
101.9
Business Condition: 1 Year
92.3
95.7
96.6
97.8
95.9
98.7
96.1
101.5
94.9
94.4
Business Condition: 5 Years
96.8
98.0
93.0
95.7
97.2
97.5
93.7
95.8
88.7
90.8
Durable Buying Conditions
92.9
98.8
96.2
97.2
97.8
96.2
96.3
107.4
96.6
98.9
Current Business Conditions Indicator
89.6
95.9
95.8
97.7
95.4
95.6
97.6
94.5
97.4
94.9
Real Estate Investment Indicator
111.4
108.5
107.9
107.9
105.3
108.5
108.0
113.0
110.5
106.9
House Price Expectations
135.0
126.6
123.6
122.9
120.7
128.4
121.6
127.7
128.1
130.9
House Buying Sentiment
97.7
98.1
100.2
100.5
96.6
96.7
101.8
109.8
105.0
92.1
House Selling Sentiment
98.6
99.1
100.0
99.8
101.4
99.5
99.3
98.4
101.5
102.3
Car Purchase Indicator
86.1
86.2
87.2
87.5
86.2
88.4
85.7
85.1
81.9
81.0
Car Purchase Expectations
107.6
104.1
105.5
107.5
101.0
109.4
107.1
101.4
98.9
98.2
Price of Gasoline Expectations
135.4
131.8
131.0
132.4
128.6
132.7
135.6
131.3
135.2
136.2
Employment Outlook Indicator
100.5
98.6
100.3
99.1
97.1
97.5
99.9
100.4
98.1
98.2
Inflation Expectations Indicator
130.7
138.3
136.6
133.2
136.1
139.4
135.7
139.7
136.8
138.2
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
80.6
76.2
84.2
86.0
73.9
85.9
85.6
80.5
73.5
71.8
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
120.6
122.1
123.3
112.3
114.1
113.2
111.1
115.6
115.5
114.9
Personal Finances: Expectations
10. 10
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
All Russia - Records
2013
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Median
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
94.8
99.9
97.9
98.0
Current Indicator
93.8
100.5
97.1
97.2
Expectations Indicator
95.1
100.3
98.4
98.7
Personal Finances: Current
91.0
103.2
96.4
95.8
101.2
109.2
104.1
104.1
Business Condition: 1 Year
92.3
101.5
96.4
96.0
Business Condition: 5 Year
88.7
98.0
94.7
95.7
Durable Buying Conditions
92.9
107.4
97.8
96.9
Current Business Conditions Indicator
89.6
97.7
95.5
95.7
Real Estate Investment Indicator
105.3
113.0
108.8
108.3
House Price Expectations
120.7
135.0
126.5
127.1
House Buying Sentiment
92.1
109.8
99.9
99.1
House Selling Sentiment
98.4
102.3
100.0
99.6
Car Purchase Indicator
81.0
88.4
85.5
86.1
Car Purchase Expectations
98.2
109.4
104.1
104.8
128.6
136.2
133.0
132.6
Employment Outlook Indicator
97.1
100.5
99.0
98.8
Inflation Expectations Indicator
130.7
139.7
136.5
136.7
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
71.8
86.0
79.8
80.6
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
111.1
123.3
116.3
115.2
Personal Finances: Expectations
Price of Gasoline Expectations
11. Consumer confidence
rose in five out of the
10 major cities
surveyed in
December.
Sentiment rose in Rostov-on-Don, Saint Petersburg, Yekaterinburg,
Chelyabinsk and Omsk.
12. 12
Spitzzeile Titel
Economic Landscape
Lower growth estimates, falling industrial output,
and an acceleration of inflation continued to highlight
the weakness of Russia’s economy and the
difficulties that policymakers face to overcome
stagnation.
13. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Lower growth estimates, falling industrial output, and
an acceleration of inflation continued to highlight the
weakness of Russia’s economy and the difficulties
that policymakers face to overcome stagnation, which
the Economy Minister, Alexei Ulyukayev, expects to
continue in 2014. He acknowledges that Russia’s
growth model, based on higher oil prices, has
exhausted itself, but has so far failed to provide any
clue of an alternative growth engine.
Following cuts in the long-term growth forecasts in
November, the Economy Ministry revised down the
growth estimates for 2013-2015 in December. The
IMF and the World Bank also revised down their
forecasts. 2013 will see the lowest GDP growth in
four years.
GDP growth revised lower
Mr Ulyukayev said that GDP growth for the first 10
months of 2013 increased by 1.4% compared with
the same period a year earlier, adding that he expects
annual growth of just 1.5%. The ministry has revised
down its 2013 forecast for GDP four times this year,
given the weakness in the economy. Growth for 2014
was also cut to 2.5% from 3% previously and to 2.8%
in 2015 from 3.1%, mainly due to weak investment.
Economic Growth
The IMF also revised down its 2013 and 2014
forecasts to 1.5% and 2% respectively, while the
World Bank cut them to 1.3% for this year and 2.2%
for next year. The economy remains weak and the
latest data does not point to a revival in the short
term. With the economy close to its potential, the IMF
has warned that structural reforms to reduce oil
revenue dependence, improve infrastructure, ease
credit access and improve the business climate are
urgently needed.
GDP rose 1.2% on the year in the third quarter,
unchanged from the second quarter, partially due to
disruption in the harvest in some areas. The Deputy
Economy Minister, Andrei Klepach, said that the
figures revealed disappointing signs of an economy
that was losing momentum rather than gathering
pace.
No respite from rising prices
Consumer price inflation rose to 6.5% in November
from 6.3% in October, the highest rate in the past
three months. Rising food prices have pushed inflation
up this year, with egg prices up 39.2% on the year in
November, the cost of fruit and vegetables up 8.9%
from a year earlier and dairy products up 12.3%. The
Central Bank of Russia said that the price increases
seen in fruit and vegetables were unusual for this time
of year.
The Economy Ministry revised up its inflation forecast
for 2013 to 6.2% from 6% after the Russian Central
Bank’s first deputy, Ksenia Yudaeva, said that inflation
would miss its target range of 5%-6% due to higher
food prices.
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
GDP Growth y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
2012
2013
Monetary policy: Interest rates unchanged
The central bank left its new key rate – the one-week
repo rate at which it lends money to financial
institutions – on hold at 5.5% after the policy meeting
on December 13. It said that the pace of economic
growth remains low and slightly below its potential,
with production and investment subdued and
business confidence indicators not improving.
13
14. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
The bank expects inflation to decline in the first half
of 2014 and meet the target by the second half of the
year. It added that a downward trend in inflation
expectations is needed in order to achieve the target.
The bank has been unwilling to cut official interest
rates due to the continued high level of inflation,
which rose to 6.5% in November. The monetary
policy stance has remained unchanged since October
2012.
The next monetary policy meeting will be held in
February, and analysts expect interest rates to be cut
if inflation eases noticeably.
Inflation
to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. It
should also help rouble adjust lower and rebalance
the economy.
Investment remains weak
Capital investment weakened further in October,
contracting 1.9% on the year, following a 1.6% fall
in September. The ministry has slashed its
investment forecast for 2013 to 0.2% from 2.5%.
In recent months, the government has made
several announcements about investment projects
in various sectors, including communications and
infrastructure. However they have not materialised
yet, so any impact on growth will not be seen until
the first quarter at the earliest.
Investment levels have declined in 2013, with
fixed capital investment down 6.3% in the third
quarter compared with the same quarter in 2012,
although this was an improvement from a decline
of 10.7% and 14.0% seen in the second and first
quarters of 2013 respectively.
16%
14%
12%
10%
The low level of investment is seen by many as the
reason behind Russia‘s current economic malaise.
8%
6%
4%
2%
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0%
2008
14
CPI y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
Less intervention in the FX market
The central bank took further measures towards a free
float of the rouble, which is expected in 2015. In
December, the bank cut the cumulative volume of
interventions in the currency market from $400
million to $350 million. This added to October‘s
decision to halve the bank‘s daily intervention in the
currency market to $60 million from $120 million.
The move towards a free float has been pushed by
the central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, in order
Industrial production on a falling trend
After a modest decline of 0.2% in the 12 months
to October, industrial production contracted further
in November, falling 1% on the year. The fall was
driven by a sharp contraction in the utilities
industry.
Manufacturing
also
contributed
negatively, contracting for the seventh straight
month.
Utilities output declined for the first time in three
months, by 4.6% in November, down from a 1.9%
rise in October. The manufacturing sector fell 0.9%
on the year, compared with a 1.9% fall in October.
Mining and quarrying output expanded 1.1% in
November compared with a year ago, down from
1.8% in October.
Industrial production has contracted in eight of the
15. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
past twelve months, prompting industry to call for a
rate cut to boost growth. With inflation stubbornly
high, the central bank has instead left its key interest
rate unchanged for months.
Lower car sales
It has been a bad year for the car industry. From
January to November, sales of new cars fell by 6.4%
compared with the same period in 2012.
Industrial Production
15%
Car sales, though, contracted at a slower pace in
November. In total, 231,982 car units were sold in
November, 3.6% less than a year earlier. While this
was the ninth consecutive annual fall it was an
improvement from a decline of 7.7% in October.
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
2008
in September, while non-food retail trade decreased
3% on the year compared with a 4.7% fall in
September.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Industrial Production Annual Average
Industrial Production y/y %
Earlier in the year the government announced plans to
allocate $3.3 billion in indirect subsidies for the
automotive industry, which might help it in 2014.
These measures include subsidies, support for
importing cars from the Far East, lower interest rates
and compensation for banks’ expenses on preferential
car loans.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
Retail Trade Turnover: Cars
Retail trade volumes of non-food products rose
marginally by 0.9% on the year in October from 0.8%
50%
0%
-50%
Car and Light Commercial Vehicles volume y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
2013
2012
2011
2010
-100%
2009
Retail sales up slightly
Retail sales recovered slightly in October, increasing
by 3.5% on the year compared with 3% in the
previous month, but still below the 4% growth seen in
August.
100%
2008
Exports fell 5.0% on the year in November to $43
billion, while imports declined 4.1% to $29.3 billion,
following a 4.3% decline to $30.8 billion recorded in
October.
150%
2007
Trade surplus moderates
The trade surplus stood at $13.7 billion in November,
up from $13.2 billion in October, although down
almost 7% from last year and 20.6% from the start of
the year. The double digit growth in the trade surplus
in July and August was mostly due to base effects.
15
16. 16
MNI China Consumer Report - July 2013
Indicators
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased
slightly in December from a record low in November,
led by a rise in respondents’ willingness to purchase
a large household item and their expectations for
business conditions in five years.
17. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Confidence Edges Up From
Record Low
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased slightly
in December from a record low in the previous month,
led by a rise in respondents’ willingness to purchase a
large household item and their expectations for
business conditions in five years.
95.7
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
102
100
The Consumer Indicator increased from 94.8 in
November to 95.7 in December, though was still
below the series average of 97.9. A reading below
100 indicates increasing negativity among consumers,
while values above show increasing positivity.
Sentiment has remained below the 100 breakeven
level since the survey started in March.
Both Current and Expectations indicators increased in
December. The Current Indicator increased 1.5% on
the month to 95.7 compared with 94.3 in November.
The Expectations Indicator rose slightly to 95.7
compared with 95.1 in November.
Current conditions were boosted by a 2.3% increase
in the Durable Buying Conditions Indicator to 98.9 in
December after posting a large decline in November
to 96.6. The other component of the Current Indicator,
Current Personal Finances, remained broadly stable
at 92.5 compared with 92.0 in November.
The small rise in the Expectations Indicator was due
to a rise in expectations for Business Conditions in
Five Years and Expected Personal Finances which
more than offset a decline in the indicator measuring
Business Conditions in a Year‘s time.
98
96
94
92
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Current and Expected Indicators
102
100
98
96
94
92
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Current
Expectations
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
MNI Russia
Consumer Indicator
98.5
99.5
99.9
97.4
99.4
94.8
95.7
Current
98.4
100.5
99.2
95.8
99.2
94.3
95.7
Expectations
98.6
98.8
100.3
98.4
99.5
95.1
95.7
17
18. 18
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
All Russia
99.4
West Siberian
99.3
99.0
99.4
90.6
78.0
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Central Russia
102.3
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Volga
102.3
107.1
102.4
101.1
97.1
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Urals
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
North Caucasus
96.2
106.2
108.1
104.9
93.3
91.3
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
19. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Expected Personal Finances was the only component
of the Consumer Indicator that remained above the
100 breakeven level. The weakest component was
Business Conditions in Five Years.
Regions
Consumer sentiment fell in all 12 regions apart from
Volga where confidence bounced back sharply by
22.2% to 97.8, having hit a series low of 80.0 in
November.
The largest fall was seen in Central Black Earth where
sentiment fell 6.9% on the month to 92.4 from 99.3
in November. Kaliningrad saw a 3.6% monthly fall
from 96.4 to 92.9.
The Consumer Indicator was above the 100 breakeven
level only in the Central region while it was the lowest
in the Urals region.
Age
Optimism was greatest among the young in December,
with confidence increasing only for the 18-34 age
range, while it fell for the older groups. Among the
18-34 age range, the Consumer Indicator increased
by 3.8% from 95.5 in November to 99.1 in December.
The Current Indicator increased 8.7% and broke
above the breakeven level to 100.4 from 92.4 in
November. The Expectations Indicator increased
slightly to 98.3, up from 97.6 in November.
Consumer confidence for the 35-54 age group, hit a
series low in December, declining to 92.7. Of the five
components, Durable Buying Conditions was the only
indicator to increase while Current Personal Finances
declined the most. Three out of the five components
hit a series low in December.
Consumer sentiment was lowest among the oldest
age range of 55-65 year olds. Confidence dropped to
92.3 from 94.1, the lowest since March when the
series started. The decline in the Consumer Indicator
Consumer Indicator: Contribution to Monthly Change
(% pt.)
0.5
Durable Buying Conditions
0.5
Business Conditions: 5 Years
Business Conditions: 1 Year
-0.1
0.1
0.1
Personal Finances: Expectations
Personal Finances: Current
19
20. 20
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
was led by the Current Indicator which fell by 12.7%
from 95.8 in November to 83.6 in December. Both
components of the Current Indicator, Current Personal
Finances and Durable Buying Conditions suffered
double digit declines of 11.2% and 14.1% respectively.
Income
Consumer confidence increased in lower income
households, following two months of declines. For
households with an average income under RUB
480,000 per annum, the Consumer Indicator
increased from 90.5 to 93.7 in December, just above
the three month average of 93.3. For households with
an average income over RUB 480,000 per annum,
consumer sentiment declined slightly from 99.9 in
November to 99.2 in December, the lowest since
September.
Consumer confidence has on average been lower
among low income households, with the indicator in
contraction since the series started in March and
weakening significantly in October and November.
Consumer Indicator: Age Groups
99.1
95.7
92.7
All
18-34
35-54
92.3
55-64
21. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Income Groups
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
94.6
93.7
93.0
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
100.0
99.2
98.1
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
21
22. 22
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Main Cities
The Consumer Indicator rose in five out of the 10
major cities surveyed in December. It increased in
Rostov-on-Don, Saint Petersburg, Yekaterinburg,
Chelyabinsk and Omsk. Sentiment fell in Moscow,
Samara, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod and Novosibirsk.
Consumer Indicator - Moscow
110
105
The Consumer Indicator for Moscow fell from 104.1
to 102.7, but it remained the most optimistic city and
also the only one where confidence was above the
100 breakeven level.
100
95
Current conditions for Moscow declined by 3.0% to
100.2 from 103.3 in the previous month. The
Expectations Indicator remained broadly stable at
104.4 compared with 104.6 in November. The fall in
the Consumer Indicator was led by a decrease in the
Current Personal Finances Indicator. Expected
Personal Finances, Business Conditions in Five Years
and Durable Buying Conditions also fell on the month.
Respondents were more optimistic about Business
Conditions in a Year which rose by almost 5.0%.
Sentiment rose in Saint Petersburg, the second largest
city of Russia, with the Consumer Indicator up from
96.6 in November to 98.5 in December. The increase
was led by a 7.0% rise in the Current Conditions
Indicator, of which Current Personal Finances
increased by 10.2% and Durable Buying Conditions
increased by 4.1% on the month.
In Novosibirsk, the third most populous city in Russia,
consumer sentiment fell 6.1% to a record low of 91.8
in December from 97.8 in November. The Current
Indicator declined significantly by 12.5%, while the
Expectations Indicator was down by 1.8% on the
month.
Nizhny Novgorod was the least optimistic city, with
the Consumer Indicator falling to a series low of 89.8
in December from 93.6 in November. Respondents
were more dissatisfied with their future expectations,
led mainly by a fall in Business Conditions in a Year.
90
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Consumer Indicator Components - Moscow
109.1
106.0
104.4
101.8
100.2
98.6
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
98.3
Personal
Business
Business
Durable
Finances: Conditions: 1 Conditions: 5
Buying
Expectations
Year
Years
Conditions
23. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Consumer Indicator - Saint Petersburg
Consumer Indicator - Novosibirsk
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
85
Mar-13
Nov-13
Consumer Indicator Components - Saint Petersburg
May-13
99.9
Sep-13
Nov-13
Consumer Indicator Components - Novosibirsk
102.5
100.9
Jul-13
99.5
96.8
96.0
100.2
91.5
88.3
85.6
94.9
Current
Indicator
94.5
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
95.3
Personal
Business
Business
Durable
Finances: Conditions: 1 Conditions: 5
Buying
Expectations
Year
Years
Conditions
83.0
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Business
Business
Durable
Finances: Conditions: 1 Conditions: 5
Buying
Expectations
Year
Years
Conditions
23
24. Both Current and
Expected Personal
Finances rose slightly
for the second
consecutive month.
The percentage of respondents reporting they expected their financial
situation to improve in a years’ time fell slightly from 12.6% to 12.2% and
those reporting a worsening fell from 9.2% to 8.3% in December.
25. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Personal Finances
Both Current and Expectations
Improve
Both Current and Expected Personal Finances rose
slightly for the second consecutive month in
December, following steep declines in October.
The Current Personal Finances Indicator, which
measures whether the financial situation of a
household is better, the same, or worse than a year
ago, increased slightly to 92.5 in December from
92.0 in November, the highest since September.
A reading above 100 indicates more households
reported that their financial situation was better than
a year ago, while a figure below 100 means more
households recorded a worsening.
The percentage of respondents who reported that
their current financial situation improved compared
with a year ago increased from 17.1% in November to
28.0% in December. Those reporting financial
conditions were the same as last year fell considerably
from 49.6% to 28.8%, while those reporting a
worsening increased from 33.2% to 43.0%.
Personal Finances
120
110
100
90
80
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Current
Expectations
Current Financial Situation Compared with 1 Year
Ago (% of Households)
0.1%
The majority of respondents cited better income as
the main reason for the improvement in their Current
Personal Finances, though a growing proportion of
respondents gave credit to better policy and business
conditions.
Expected Personal Finances, which measures whether
households think their finances will be better in a
year‘s time has trended downwards since March. The
indicator remained broadly stable at 101.9 in
December compared with 101.7 in November, just
above the three month average of 101.6.
92.5
28.0%
43.0%
28.8%
Much Better
Same
Much Worse
A Little Better
A Little Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Sep-13
Oct-13
Personal Finances
Jun-13
Current
Expectations
Jul-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
99.5
103.2
102.1
95.3
91.0
92.0
92.5
102.4
103.4
104.9
105.4
101.2
101.7
101.9
25
26. 26
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
How Households Spend their
Money
Daily Expenses
(% of Households)
Monthly Household Income Used for Large Loan
Repayment (% of Households)
0.6%
3.3%
5.8%
96.7%
91.8%
0% - 29% of Income
50% - 69% of Income
0% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
70% - 100% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
Monthly Household Income Used for Savings
(% of Households)
Monthly Household Income Used for Investments
(% of Households)
1.1%
5.1%
51.4%
48.6%
93.9%
0% of Income
30% -49% of Income
0% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
27. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
94.9
Business Conditions
Remain Depressed
Perceptions about the current state of business
worsened in December while expectations for the
future improved.
The Current Business Conditions Indicator, which
measures respondents’ views on the state of business
compared with a year ago, deteriorated to 94.9 in
December from 97.4 in November. It has always
remained in contraction, but has remained relatively
stable around 96 since April.
Current Business Conditions Indicator
100
98
96
94
92
90
The proportion of respondents who believed that
business conditions were “excellent” or “good”
remained virtually unchanged at 5.3% compared with
5.2% in November. There was a fall in the proportion
of respondents who believed that business conditions
were “only fair” compared with the previous month
from 82.0% to 76.5%, while the proportion of
respondents reporting conditions were “poor” or “very
poor” increased from 10.2% to 15.4%.
Expectations for Business Conditions in a Year fell
further into contraction, with the indicator declining to
94.4 in December from 94.9 in November, the lowest
since March. There was a considerable rise in the
proportion of respondents who expected business
conditions to worsen in a year to 41.7% in December
from 27.1% in November. There was also a significant
rise in the proportion of respondents who felt business
condition would better in a year from 16.9% to
30.6%.
88
86
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Expected Business Conditions
105
100
95
90
85
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
1 Year
5 Years
Business Conditions
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Current
97.7
95.4
95.6
97.6
In 1 Year
97.8
95.9
98.7
96.1
94.5
97.4
94.9
101.5
94.9
94.4
In 5 Years
95.7
97.2
97.5
93.7
95.8
88.7
90.8
27
28. 28
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Business Conditions in 1 Year
Selected Reasons
Most respondents cited government policies as the
main reason behind the worsening in their outlook for
business conditions in a year’s time. Consumers
remained disillusioned with the government and its
lack of clear policies to propel economic growth.
All Russia
Longer term, Expectations for Business Conditions in
Five Years improved in December. The indicator
increased from 88.7 in November to 90.8, a rise of
2.4% on the month.
55.6%
66.6%
Though there was increased optimism about longer
term business conditions in December, sentiment in
the fourth quarter was down by 4.6% compared with
the third quarter to 91.7, the lowest for the year.
44.4%
33.4%
Nov-13
Dec-13
Better
Worse
All Russia, Reasons for Better
28.7%
All Russia, Reasons for Worse
30.2%
29.6%
23.8%
22.5%
19.6%
13.6%
10.9%
4.8%
9.2%
6.4%
0.6%
Government/Policy
Resource/Environment
Government/Policy
Resource/Environment
Econ. Development
Social Stability/ Security
Econ. Development
Social Stability/ Security
Income/Employment
Events
Income/Employment
Events
29. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Business Conditions in 1 Year
Regions
Business Expectations: Regions
Business Expectations: Worse or Better?
(% of Respondents)
117.1
101.3
101.1
48.7%
51.3%
82.9
50.8%
49.2%
30.8%
37.0%
67.2%
74.6
69.2%
63.0%
32.8%
Central
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
West Siberian
Central
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
West Siberian
Worse
Better
Reasons for Better
(% of Respondents)
Central
North
Caucasus
Reasons for Worse
(% of Respondents)
Urals
Volga
West Siberian
Central
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
Government/Policy
Resource/Environment
Government/Policy
Resource/Environment
Econ. Development
Social Stability/ Security
Econ. Development
Social Stability/ Security
Income/Employment
Events
Income/Employment
Events
West Siberian
29
30. Concerns over
inflation and
expectations for
future prices
worsened in
December.
Almost 70.0% of the respondents believed prices would be higher in a
years’ time and thought they would rise between 11.0%-24.0% in a year‘s
time.
31. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Durable Buying Conditions
Improve but remain in
Contraction
The Durable Buying Conditions Indicator, which
measures whether respondents think it is a good or
bad time to buy a large household good, increased in
December following a sharp fall in November.
The indicator rose to 98.9 from 96.6 in November,
just above the series average of 97.8, but still below
the 100 breakeven level where it has remained since
March, except for October which saw an unusually
sharp increase.
The October spike helped push up the Durable Buying
Conditions Indicator in the fourth quarter to 101.0
from 96.7 in the third quarter and 97.4 in the second
quarter. The increase over the quarter may in part be
seasonal given the Christmas holiday and increased
consumer activity during this period.
Retail sales increased in November by 4.5% compared
with the same period a year earlier and above the
3.5% growth seen in October. The rise in retail sales
for the Christmas period was however slower than the
5.0% growth in November 2012 compared to a year
earlier.
98.9
Durable Buying Conditions
110
105
100
95
90
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Is It a Good or Bad Time to Buy Large Household
Goods? (% of Households)
1.9%
2.2%
33.0%
30.8%
The proportion of survey participants saying it was a
“good time” to buy large household durables increased
from 20.2% to 33.0% in December, while the
proportion of those saying it was a “bad time” or ”very
bad time” rose from 25.3% to 33.0%. There was a
considerable decline in the proportion of respondents
who felt there had been “no change” from 52.3% to
32.1%.
32.1%
Excellent Time
Bad Time
Good Time
Very Bad Time
Neutral
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Durable Buying Conditions
Jun-13
Durable Buying
Conditions
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
97.2
97.8
96.2
96.3
107.4
96.6
98.9
31
32. 32
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
98.2
Employment Outlook
Remains Broadly Stable
The Employment Outlook Indicator, which measures
opinion on the outlook of the employment market over
the next 12 months, remained broadly stable in
December having fallen below the 100 breakeven
level in November.
Employment Outlook Indicator
102
100
The indicator stood at 98.2 in December compared
with 98.1 in November, indicating that respondents
do not expect much change in the employment
situation in the next 12 months. The indicator has
remained in contraction save for March and October.
The unemployment rate in Russia fell slightly to 5.4%
in November, down from 5.5% in October, the first
decline in four months. Some of the improvement
might have been due to mild weather conditions in
November, which could have contributed to more
temporary jobs in construction or agriculture, rather
than indicating an underlying strengthening in the
labour market.
98
96
94
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Employment Outlook for the Next 12 Months
(% of Households)
1.3%
Survey participants forecasting an improvement in the
employment market totalled 8.4% in December,
marginally down from 8.6% in November, while the
proportion of those forecasting a worsening fell from
12.4% to 11.8% in December. The majority of
respondents forecast no change in the employment
situation. This proportion increased from 77.9% in
November to 78.6% in December.
8.4%
11.6%
78.6%
Much Better
Same
Much Worse
A Little Better
A Little Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Employment Outlook
Jun-13
Employment
Outlook
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
99.1
97.1
97.5
99.9
100.4
98.1
98.2
33. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Prices Sentiment
Discontent Rises to a New
Record
Concerns over inflation continued to worsen in
December as the number of respondents who were
dissatisfied with the current level of prices increased
further, and expectations for inflation over the coming
year increased.
The Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator fell for the
fourth consecutive month, hitting a record low in
December. The indicator declined by 2.4% on the
month to 71.8 from 73.5 in November. A figure below
100 indicates wider dissatisfaction with current
prices, and the further below 100 the greater the
dissatisfaction. The indicator has remained below the
breakeven level since the survey started, indicating
that respondents view prices as a persistent issue
with no clear sign of easing.
Consumer price inflation accelerated to 6.5% in
November, up from 6.3% in October. Rising food
prices have pushed inflation up this year, with egg
prices up 39.2% on the year in November, the cost of
fruit and vegetables up 8.9% from a year earlier and
dairy products up 12.3%. The Economy Ministry
revised up its inflation forecast for 2013 to 6.2% from
6.0% after the Russian Central Bank’s first deputy,
Ksenia Yudaeva, said that inflation would miss its
target range of 5%-6% due to higher food prices.
71.8
Satisfaction with Current Prices
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Inflation Expectations Indicator
142
140
138
136
134
132
130
The Inflation Expectations Indicator measures whether
respondents think prices will be higher or lower in 12
months’ time. The Indicator rose in December to
138.2, up from 136.8 in November, following the
upward trend seen since March.
128
126
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Prices Sentiment
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Satisfaction with
Current Prices
86.0
73.9
85.9
85.6
80.5
73.5
71.8
Inflation Expectations
133.2
136.1
139.4
135.7
139.7
136.8
138.2
33
34. 34
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Prices Sentiment
Regions
The majority of respondents believed prices would be
higher in a years’ time. The proportion fell slightly to
69.9% from 70.4% in November, while those saying
prices would be unchanged increased slightly from
27.9% to 28.6%. Respondents who forecast prices
would be lower fell from 0.9% to 0.3% in December.
Satisfaction with Current Prices
(% of Households)
0.4%
Asked about how much prices would rise over the
next year, the majority of respondents continued to
report they would rise between 11.0%-24.0% in a
year but the proportion of respondents who said they
would rise less than 5% increased significantly, a
tentative indication that inflation expectations could
have started to ease. The Central Bank has said that
it needs to see a downward trend in both inflation and
inflationary expectations before it considers cutting
official interest rates.
9.0%
1.9%
48.3%
40.4%
Very Satisfied
Regions
All the regions surveyed showed wide dissatisfaction
with the current level of prices. The West Siberian
region showed the greatest dissatisfaction while the
North Caucasus suffered the largest monthly fall in
the Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator.
So So
Not Satisfied At All
Quite Satisfied
Not Very Satisfied
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Inflation Expectations in 12 Months
(% of Households)
0.3% 1.2%
Inflation expectations eased in the Central and Urals
region while it increased in the North Caucasus, Volga
and West Siberian regions. Respondents from the
Volga region had the highest inflationary expectations
over the next 12 months.
6.9%
28.6%
63.0%
Much Higher
Same
Much Lower
A Little Higher
A Little Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
35. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Inflation Expectations Indicator
Expected Change in Prices in 1 Year
(% of Households)
168.2
136.8
All Russia
137.4
Central
141.2
127.5
North
Caucasus
121.2
Urals
Volga
West
Siberian
Central
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
West Siberian
Much Higher
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
80.2
73.5
72.1
Same
Much Lower
A Little Higher
A Little Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Satisfaction with Current Prices
(% of Households)
76.9
66.6
45.5
All Russia
Central
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
West
Siberian
All Russia
Central
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
Very Satisfied
Neutral
Not Satisfied At All
Quite Satisfied
Not Very Satisfied
Don‘t Know/No Answer
West
Siberian
35
36. 36
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
114.9
Interest Rate Expectations
Declines Slightly
The Interest Rate Expectations Indicator fell for the
second consecutive month, albeit only marginally to
114.9 in December from 115.5 in November.
Interest Rate Expectations Indicator
The indicator has remained above 100 since the
survey started in March. A reading above 100
indicates more households expected interest rates to
rise over the coming year, while a figure below 100
means more households expected to see a fall.
120
Expectations have trended downwards since the
series began in March, although in the fourth quarter
the indicator rose to 115.4 from 112.8 in the third
quarter, a gain of 2.3%.
The central bank left its key rate - the one week repo
rate at which it lends money to financial institutions on hold at 5.5% at its December meeting due to the
continued high level of inflation, in spite of weak
economic growth.
130
110
100
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Expected Change in Interest Rate in 1 Year
(% of Households)
Survey participants forecasting that interest rates on
home and car loans would be higher in a year
accounted for 31.9%, up from 29.2% in November.
Those forecasting lower rates increased from 4.1% to
6.8%. The percentage of respondents reporting that
interest rates would remain the same fell from 61.8%
to 57.1% in December.
4.1%
6.8%
4.8%
27.2%
57.1%
Much Higher
Same
Much Lower
A Little Higher
A Little Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Interest Rate Expectations
Jun-13
Interest Rate
Expectations
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
112.3
114.1
113.2
111.1
115.6
115.5
114.9
37. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
106.9
Real Estate Investment
Second Fall in a Row
The Real Estate Investment Indicator fell for the
second consecutive month in December, having hit a
record high in October, led by a significant decline in
house buying sentiment.
Real Estate Investment Indicator
114
112
The Indicator declined to 106.9 in December from
110.5 in November, a monthly fall of 3.3% and the
lowest since July.
The Real Estate Investment Indicator is composed of
three sub-indicators to assess sentiment on the
housing market; House Price Expectations, House
Buying Sentiment and House Selling Sentiment.
House Price Expectations increased for the third
month in a row, rising from 128.1 in November to
130.9 in December. A value above 100 indicates
more people expect prices to increase in the next six
months. The indicator has followed a U curve since
March when it was at a record high, before
subsequently declining in the summer, before rising
again in the fourth quarter. Part of this summer
downturn may well be seasonal.
The percentage of respondents who said prices will
go up in the next six months increased from 52.5% in
November to 58.0% in December, while those saying
prices would go down fell from 0.8% to 0.4%. Those
who said prices would “stay the same” stood at
38.6%, down from 44.5% in November.
110
108
106
104
102
100
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Real Estate Investment Indicator: Contribution to
Monthly Change (% pt.)
House Selling Sentiment
-0.2
House Buying Sentiment
-3.9
House Buying Sentiment, a measure of whether it is a
good time in the next six months to buy a house, fell
0.8
House Price Expectations
Real Estate Investment Sentiment
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Real Estate Investment Sentiment
107.9
105.3
108.5
108.0
113.0
110.5
106.9
Price Expectations
122.9
120.7
128.4
121.6
127.7
128.1
130.9
House Buying
100.5
96.6
96.7
101.8
109.8
105.0
92.1
House Selling
99.8
101.4
99.5
99.3
98.4
101.5
102.3
37
38. 38
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Real Estate Investment
Components and Balances
by 12.3% to 92.1 in December, down from 105.0 in
November, the lowest since the series started in
March.
House Selling Sentiment is a measure of whether it is
a good time in the next six months to sell a house and
has a negative impact on the overall Real Estate
Investment Indicator. The Indicator increased slightly
to 102.3 compared with 101.5 in November, 3.7%
above from the start of the series in March.
Regions
The Real Estate Investment Indicator showed
significant declines in the Volga region, while smaller
declines were seen in the Central and North Caucasus
regions. West Siberian registered an improvement
following a strong decline in the previous month.
Real Estate Investment Indicator - Components
128.1 130.9
110.5 106.9
105.0
92.1
Real Estate
Investment
Indicator
House Price
Expectations
House Buying
Sentiment
101.5 102.3
House Selling
Sentiment
November 2013
December 2013
Real Estate Prices: Expected Changes
Expected Changes in Real Estate Prices in the Next
6 months (% of Households)
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
Mar-13
All Russia
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Central
Nov-13
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
Go Up Dramatically
Stay the Same
Go Down Sharply
Go Up Slightly
Gow Down Slightly
Don‘t Know/No Answer
39. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
House Buying Sentiment
Reasons for Buying Houses (% of Households)
115
110
17.3%
19.9%
105
5.0%
100
95
25.6%
23.8%
90
85
Mar-13
8.3%
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Prices
House Selling Sentiment
Investment Value
Supply and Quality
Income/Purchasing Power
Policy/Interest Rate
Others
Timing for Selling Houses (% of Households)
0.1%
105
8.4%
13.4%
8.7%
100
95
69.4%
90
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Excellent Time
Neutral
Very Bad Time
Good Time
Bad Time
Don‘t Know/No Answer
39
40. 40
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
81.0
Car Purchase
Hits a Record Low
The Car Purchase Indicator registered its fourth
consecutive decline in December as car purchase
expectations fell further into contraction and
expectations for the price of gasoline increased.
The indicator hit a new record low falling 1.1% from
81.9 in November to 81.0 in December, nearly 6%
below the level in March when the series started. The
indicator has fallen steeply in recent months, with the
fourth quarter reading down 4.7% compared with the
previous quarter and the lowest for the year.
The indicator assesses whether consumers believe it
is a good or bad time to purchase a car and is made
of two components, Car Purchase Expectations and
Price of Gasoline Expectations.
The Car Purchase Expectations component, which
measures the willingness to buy a car, posted the
fourth consecutive monthly decline and remained
below the breakeven level. The indicator fell slightly to
98.2 in December from 98.9 in November, well below
the series average of 104.1.
Car Purchase Indicator
100
90
80
70
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Car Purchase Indicator - Components
150
140
130
The car industry in Russia is shrinking and in
November, Russian car sales were down 4.0%
compared with the same period a year earlier, though
this was an improvement from 8.0% decline witnessed
in October.
The Indicator on Gasoline Prices, which measures
expectations for the price of gasoline in a year, hit a
series high, rising to 136.2 in December from 135.2
in November. Increasing gasoline prices have a
negative impact on the overall Car Purchase Indicator.
120
110
100
90
80
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Car Purchase Expectations
Price of Gasoline
Car Purchase Sentiment
Jun-13
Car Purchase
Sentiment
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
87.5
86.2
88.4
85.7
85.1
81.9
81.0
Car Purchase
Expectations
107.5
101.0
109.4
107.1
101.4
98.9
98.2
Price of Gasoline
132.4
128.6
132.7
135.6
131.3
135.2
136.2
41. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Reasons for a Good Time to Buy a Car
(% of Households)
All Russia
Central
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
Reasons for a Bad Time to Buy a Car
(% of Households)
West
Siberian
All Russia
Central
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
West
Siberian
Prices
Policy/Interest Rate
Cost of Use/Upkeep
Prices
Policy/Interest Rate
Cost of Use/Upkeep
Income/Purchasing Power
Supply and Quality
Others
Income/Purchasing Power
Supply and Quality
Others
Expected Change in the Price of Gasoline
(% of Households)
Car Purchase Expectations Indicator - Regions
101.9
0.1%
98.3
3.5%
91.8
90.4
29.1%
32.5%
85.5
Central
34.8%
Go Up Dramatically
Stay the Same
Go Down Sharply
Go Up Slightly
Gow Down Slightly
Don‘t Know/No Answer
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
West Siberian
41
42. House Price
Expectations
increased for the
third month in a row
from 128.1 to 130.9
in December.
The percentage of respondents who said prices will go up in the next six
months increased from 52.5 in November to 58.0% in December.
43. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Regions
Consumer Indicator: North Caucasus
Consumer Indicator Components: North Caucasus
110
102.2
100.6
105
83.0
100
101.1
98.5
89.3
76.7
95
90
85
80
Mar 13
May 13
Jul 13
Sep 13
Nov 13
Consumer Indicator: West Siberian
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Business
Business
Durable
Finances: Conditions: 1 Conditions: 5
Buying
Expectations
Year
Years
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: West Siberian
110
101.0
100
91.4
95.1
100.2
99.4
107.0
74.6
90
80
70
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Business
Business
Durable
Finances: Conditions: 1 Conditions: 5
Buying
Expectations
Year
Years
Conditions
43
44. 44
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Consumer Indicator: Volga
Consumer Indicator Components: Volga
105
117.1
100
101.6
95
95.2
96.6
106.6
100.1
90
68.5
85
80
75
70
Mar 13
May 13
Jul 13
Sep 13
Nov 13
Consumer Indicator: Central
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Business
Business
Durable
Finances: Conditions: 1 Conditions: 5
Buying
Expectations
Year
Years
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: Central
110
108.3
104.5
105
100.7
101.5
100
101.3
96.9
94.8
95
90
Mar 13
May 13
Jul 13
Sep 13
Nov 13
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Business
Business
Durable
Finances: Conditions: 1 Conditions: 5
Buying
Expectations
Year
Years
Conditions
45. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Consumer Indicator: Urals
Consumer Indicator Components: Urals
105
93.0
89.6
100
86.0
85.9
95
82.9
82.3
81.7
90
85
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Employment Indicator Outlook for the Next 12
Months (% of Households)
Central
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
West Siberian
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Business
Business
Durable
Finances: Conditions: 1 Conditions: 5
Buying
Expectations
Year
Years
Conditions
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
(% of Households)
Central
North
Caucasus
Urals
Volga
West Siberain
Much Better
About the Same
Much Worse
Much Better
About the Same
Much Worse
A Little Better
A Little Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
A Little Better
A Little Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
45
46. 46
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Income Groups
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
< RUB 480,000 - Components
94.6
93.7
93.0
99.4
99.0
90.8
90.5
90.1
90.7
89.8
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
89.4
Personal
Business
Business
Finances: Conditions: 1 Conditions: 5
Expectations
Year
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
November 2013
December 2013
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
> RUB 480,000 - Components
100.7
106.5
100.0
99.9
99.2
100.3
98.8
98.6
97.7
98.1
93.0
Total Indicator
November 2013
December 2013
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Business
Business
Finances: Conditions: 1 Conditions: 5
Expectations
Year
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
47. The Car Purchase
Indicator suffered its
fourth consecutive
decline in December.
70% survey participants forecasted gasoline prices to go up compared
with 68.8% in November.
48. 48
MNI China Consumer Report - July 2013
What the Panel Said
A selection of comments from the panel of
consumers surveyed in December.
49. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
“Bonuses were decreased.”
“Real estate mortgage is very expensive.”
“The company is cutting the number of employees so
I have agreed to work as a freelancer.”
“Prices for houses will be increasing.”
“Price of fuel is rising.”
“There is uncertainty about the work situation.”
“Car taxes in Russia are not very burdensome.”
“Last month, the government has started activities to
support small businesses.”
“Costs of cars in Russia is significantly higher than in
many developed countries.”
“My income level allows me to buy branded goods.”
“It is expensive to maintain a car.”
“Incomes are falling and taxes, price of fuel are
growing.”
“Consumer credit rates have gone down until the New
Year period.”
“Real estate prices in the city are the highest
throughout the world.”
“In 2014 there are plans to increase average monthly
wages.”
“Russia has expensive fuel, a country that is a large
exporter of oil products!”
“Cost of living is increasing.”
49
50. 50
MNI China Consumer Report - July 2013
Data Tables
A closer look at the data from the December
consumer survey.
51. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Russia - Central Overview
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - Central
Consumer Indicator
102.3
101.7
101.2
-
Apr-13
101.7
-0.5
-0.5%
Current Indicator
102.2
102.2
100.7
-
Mar-13
101.7
-1.5
-1.5%
Expectations Indicator
102.4
101.3
101.5
Oct-13
-
101.7
0.2
0.2%
95.8
101.2
96.9
-
Oct-13
98.0
-4.3
-4.2%
Personal Finances: Expectations
108.0
106.6
108.3
Sep-13
-
107.6
1.7
1.6%
Business Condition: 1 Year
100.7
98.9
101.3
Aug-13
-
100.3
2.4
2.5%
Business Condition: 5 Year
98.5
98.4
94.8
-
series low
97.2
-3.6
-3.6%
Durable Buying Conditions
108.7
103.3
104.5
Oct-13
-
105.5
1.2
1.2%
96.1
97.2
95.3
-
Jul-13
96.2
-1.9
-2.0%
113.4
112.7
110.4
-
series low
112.2
-2.3
-2.1%
82.1
80.4
83.0
Sep-13
-
81.8
2.6
3.2%
Employment Outlook Indicator
100.3
103.2
101.8
-
Oct-13
101.8
-1.4
-1.4%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
139.3
140.9
137.4
-
series low
139.2
-3.5
-2.5%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
77.9
72.7
72.1
-
series low
74.2
-0.6
-0.8%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
116.3
111.5
113.0
Oct-13
-
113.6
1.5
1.3%
Personal Finances: Current
Current Business Conditions Indicator
Real Estate Investment Indicator
Car Purchase Indicator
51
52. 52
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Russia - Urals Overview
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - Urals
Consumer Indicator
93.3
91.5
85.9
-
series low
90.2
-5.6
-6.1%
Current Indicator
96.2
94.6
86.0
-
series low
92.2
-8.6
-9.1%
Expectations Indicator
91.4
89.4
85.9
-
series low
88.9
-3.5
-4.0%
Personal Finances: Current
91.6
82.7
82.3
-
series low
85.5
-0.4
-0.5%
Personal Finances: Expectations
89.0
94.9
93.0
-
Oct-13
92.3
-1.9
-2.0%
Business Condition: 1 Year
105.1
94.8
82.9
-
series low
94.2
-11.9
-12.6%
Business Condition: 5 Year
80.2
78.6
81.7
Sep-13
-
80.2
3.1
3.9%
Durable Buying Conditions
100.7
106.5
89.6
-
series low
99.0
-16.9
-15.8%
97.3
98.5
87.5
-
Mar-13
94.4
-11.0
-11.1%
114.5
113.0
114.2
Oct-13
-
113.9
1.2
1.1%
Car Purchase Indicator
91.5
88.9
76.2
-
series low
85.6
-12.7
-14.3%
Employment Outlook Indicator
98.8
93.2
101.4
Jun-13
-
97.8
8.2
8.8%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
150.6
145.0
141.2
-
Jun-13
145.6
-3.8
-2.6%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
83.7
80.5
80.2
-
series low
81.5
-0.3
-0.3%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
113.3
131.0
127.4
-
Oct-13
123.9
-3.6
-2.8%
Current Business Conditions Indicator
Real Estate Investment Indicator
53. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Russia - Volga Overview
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - Volga
Consumer Indicator
101.1
80.0
97.8
Oct-13
-
93.0
17.8
22.2%
Current Indicator
106.8
77.8
101.6
Oct-13
-
95.4
23.8
30.6%
Expectations Indicator
97.3
81.4
95.2
Oct-13
-
91.3
13.8
16.9%
Personal Finances: Current
95.2
65.6
96.6
Jul-13
-
85.8
31.0
47.3%
Personal Finances: Expectations
91.5
100.3
100.1
-
Oct-13
97.3
-0.2
-0.1%
Business Condition: 1 Year
98.4
88.7
117.1
series high
-
101.4
28.4
32.0%
Business Condition: 5 Year
102.2
55.4
68.5
Oct-13
-
75.3
13.1
23.7%
Durable Buying Conditions
118.3
90.0
106.6
Oct-13
-
105.0
16.6
18.4%
77.7
98.3
79.3
-
Oct-13
85.1
-19.0
-19.4%
137.6
123.1
100.8
-
Jul-13
120.5
-22.3
-18.1%
Car Purchase Indicator
88.1
77.0
82.5
Oct-13
-
82.5
5.5
7.1%
Employment Outlook Indicator
99.8
89.2
78.9
-
Aug-13
89.3
-10.3
-11.6%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
150.4
150.1
168.2
series high
-
156.3
18.1
12.1%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
84.8
76.4
76.9
Oct-13
-
79.4
0.5
0.7%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
126.7
126.5
143.9
May-13
-
132.4
17.4
13.8%
Current Business Conditions Indicator
Real Estate Investment Indicator
53
54. 54
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Russia - North Caucasus Overview
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - North Caucasus
Consumer Indicator
106.2
94.7
93.6
-
Apr-13
98.1
-1.1
-1.2%
Current Indicator
108.1
86.8
83.0
-
series low
92.6
-3.8
-4.4%
Expectations Indicator
104.8
100.0
100.6
Oct-13
-
101.8
0.6
0.6%
Personal Finances: Current
99.3
91.1
89.3
-
Jun-13
93.3
-1.8
-2.0%
Personal Finances: Expectations
98.7
102.3
102.2
-
Oct-13
101.1
-0.1
0.0%
Business Condition: 1 Year
113.4
98.6
101.1
Oct-13
-
104.4
2.5
2.6%
Business Condition: 5 Year
102.4
99.1
98.5
-
Sep-13
100.0
-0.6
-0.6%
Durable Buying Conditions
116.9
82.5
76.7
-
series low
92.0
-5.8
-7.0%
99.9
101.1
101.3
Sep-13
-
100.8
0.2
0.2%
100.5
95.7
94.0
-
series low
96.7
-1.7
-1.8%
82.6
80.1
78.8
-
series low
80.5
-1.3
-1.6%
Employment Outlook Indicator
106.5
101.2
100.1
-
Apr-13
102.6
-1.1
-1.2%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
136.6
125.9
127.5
Oct-13
-
130.0
1.6
1.3%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
74.6
73.9
66.6
-
series low
71.7
-7.3
-9.8%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
105.2
108.3
109.9
series high
-
107.8
1.6
1.5%
Current Business Conditions Indicator
Real Estate Investment Indicator
Car Purchase Indicator
55. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Russia - West Siberian Overview
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Russia - West Siberian
Consumer Indicator
90.7
96.4
95.3
-
Oct-13
94.1
-1.1
-1.2%
Current Indicator
78.1
93.6
101.0
Apr-13
-
90.9
7.4
7.9%
Expectations Indicator
99.1
98.3
91.4
-
series low
96.3
-6.9
-7.0%
Personal Finances: Current
65.5
109.3
95.1
-
Oct-13
90.0
-14.2
-13.0%
Personal Finances: Expectations
99.7
100.3
100.2
-
Oct-13
100.1
-0.1
-0.1%
Business Condition: 1 Year
99.0
95.2
74.6
-
series low
89.6
-20.6
-21.6%
Business Condition: 5 Year
98.5
99.3
99.4
Aug-13
-
99.1
0.1
0.1%
Durable Buying Conditions
90.7
77.9
107.0
series high
-
91.9
29.1
37.3%
Current Business Conditions Indicator
99.5
100.0
99.5
-
Aug-13
99.7
-0.5
-0.6%
136.5
100.3
108.3
Oct-13
-
115.0
8.0
7.9%
Car Purchase Indicator
82.3
79.6
72.8
-
series low
78.3
-6.8
-8.5%
Employment Outlook Indicator
99.6
99.2
100.4
Sep-13
-
99.7
1.2
1.2%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
131.5
108.3
121.2
Oct-13
-
120.3
12.9
12.0%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
81.0
47.8
45.5
-
series low
58.1
-2.3
-4.9%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
103.3
103.3
95.8
-
series low
100.8
-7.5
-7.3%
Real Estate Investment Indicator
55
56. 56
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
All Russia Overview by Age
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
101.1
95.5
99.1
Oct-13
-
98.6
3.6
3.8%
Current Indicator
102.0
92.4
100.4
Oct-13
-
98.3
8.0
8.7%
Expectations Indicator
100.4
97.6
98.3
Oct-13
-
98.8
0.7
0.7%
Personal Finances: Current
91.6
90.9
101.3
Aug-13
-
94.6
10.4
11.4%
Personal Finances: Expectations
98.9
103.3
104.6
Sep-13
-
102.3
1.3
1.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year
104.7
98.0
95.1
-
Mar-13
99.3
-2.9
-3.0%
Business Condition: 5 Year
97.8
91.4
95.1
Oct-13
-
94.8
3.7
4.0%
Durable Buying Conditions
112.5
93.9
99.5
Oct-13
-
102.0
5.6
6.0%
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
97.6
93.9
92.7
-
series low
94.8
-1.2
-1.3%
Current Indicator
94.8
96.3
93.8
-
Mar-13
95.0
-2.5
-2.5%
Expectations Indicator
99.5
92.4
92.0
-
series low
94.6
-0.4
-0.4%
Personal Finances: Current
88.5
93.2
85.4
-
series low
89.0
-7.8
-8.3%
104.2
100.7
100.3
-
series low
101.7
-0.4
-0.4%
Business Condition: 1 Year
98.5
91.6
91.5
-
Aug-13
93.9
-0.1
-0.2%
Business Condition: 5 Year
95.7
84.8
84.2
-
series low
88.2
-0.6
-0.7%
Durable Buying Conditions
101.1
99.4
102.3
series high
-
100.9
2.9
2.9%
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
97.5
94.1
92.3
-
series low
94.6
-1.8
-1.9%
Current Indicator
99.9
95.8
83.6
-
May-13
93.1
-12.2
-12.7%
Expectations Indicator
95.8
93.0
98.2
Sep-13
-
95.7
5.2
5.5%
Personal Finances: Current
95.5
92.5
82.1
-
May-13
90.1
-10.4
-11.2%
102.0
96.8
97.1
Oct-13
-
98.7
0.3
0.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year
97.1
91.9
101.5
Jun-13
-
96.8
9.6
10.5%
Business Condition: 5 Year
88.3
90.4
95.9
Sep-13
-
91.5
5.5
6.2%
Durable Buying Conditions
104.3
99.1
85.1
-
May-13
96.2
-14.0
-14.1%
Age 18-34
Age 35-54
Personal Finances: Expectations
Age 55-64
Personal Finances: Expectations
57. MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
All Russia - Overview by Income
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
95.7
90.5
93.7
Oct-13
-
93.3
3.2
3.5%
Current Indicator
90.3
90.1
94.6
Sep-13
-
91.7
4.5
5.0%
Expectations Indicator
99.3
90.8
93.0
Oct-13
-
94.4
2.2
2.5%
Personal Finances: Current
84.6
82.7
89.8
Sep-13
-
85.7
7.1
8.6%
103.3
98.7
99.0
Oct-13
-
100.3
0.3
0.3%
Business Condition: 1 Year
99.9
93.1
90.7
-
series low
94.6
-2.4
-2.5%
Business Condition: 5 Year
94.7
80.6
89.4
Oct-13
-
88.2
8.8
11.0%
Durable Buying Conditions
96.0
97.6
99.4
series high
-
97.7
1.8
1.9%
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
101.8
99.9
99.2
-
Sep-13
100.3
-0.7
-0.7%
Current Indicator
105.5
98.8
98.1
-
Sep-13
100.8
-0.7
-0.6%
Expectations Indicator
99.4
100.7
100.0
-
Oct-13
100.0
-0.7
-0.7%
Personal Finances: Current
95.6
102.6
98.6
-
Oct-13
98.9
-4.0
-3.9%
Personal Finances: Expectations
99.3
105.7
106.5
Sep-13
-
103.8
0.8
0.8%
Business Condition: 1 Year
102.4
96.8
100.3
Oct-13
-
99.9
3.5
3.6%
Business Condition: 5 Year
96.5
99.5
93.0
-
series low
96.3
-6.5
-6.5%
Durable Buying Conditions
115.3
95.0
97.7
Oct-13
-
102.7
2.7
2.9%
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
Personal Finances: Expectations
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
57
58. 58
MNI Russia Consumer Report - December 2013
Methodology
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Survey is a
wide ranging monthly survey of consumer confidence
across Russia.
Data is collected through computer aided telephone
interviews (CATI), with each interviewee selected
randomly by computer. At least 1,000 interviews are
conducted each month.
The survey adopts a similar methodology to the
University of Michigan survey of U.S. consumer
sentiment.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator is derived from
five questions, two on current conditions and three on
future expectations:
1) Current personal financial situation compared to a
year ago
2) Current willingness to buy major household items
3) Personal financial situation one year from now
4) Overall business conditions one year from now
5) Overall business conditions for the next 5 years
Indicators relating to specific questions in the report
are diffusion indices with 100 representing a neutral
level, meaning positive and negative answers are
equal. Values above 100 indicate increasing positivity
while values below show increasing negativity.
59. Discovering trends in BRIC
countries: MNI BRIC indicators
MNI‘s new BRIC indicators explore attitudes, perspectives and confidence in
Brazil, Russia, India and China. Our data and monthly reports present an advance
picture of the economic landscape as perceived by businesses and consumers.
Our indicators allow investors, economists, analysts, and companies to identify
economic trends and make informed investment and business decisions. Our data
moves markets.
www.mni-indicators.com
Insight and data for better decisions