London, 24 December 2013. The MNI India Business Indicator fell to 57.8 in December from 64.6 in November, the lowest since July. Eleven out of 15 current conditions indicators fell, a disappointing end to what has been a tough year for businesses.
London, 4 March 2013 MNI INDIA CONSUMER SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. NEW DELHI TIME The MNI India Consumer Indicator increased to the highest level since December 2012, driven by a rise in both current and future expectations.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and up-to-date intelligence on the state of the Indian economy. It provides a monthly snapshot of market activities as perceived by local consumers.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment serves as the basis for its own dedicated report, the MNI India Consumer Report. This monthly report delivers in-depth analysis of consumers‘ attitudes, perspectives and confidence across the country.
Written by our in-house team of economists, the MNI India Consumer Report blends the analysis of consumer confidence with relevant commentaries. It allows users to develop a thorough understanding of the Indian market and get direct access to consumers‘ views on the economy and its future.
The document provides an analysis of the financial performance and position of Dabur India Ltd, an FMCG company, through various ratios and trends. It begins with an analysis of the Indian macroeconomic environment, including GDP growth, inflation trends, and performance of the industrial and FMCG sectors. It then examines Dabur's business segments, competitors, financial ratios, cash flows, and share price over time. Big data and its impact on FMCG companies is also discussed.
The MNI India Business Sentiment is an authoritative indicator of the current pace of overall growth in India. It is based on a monthly poll of Indian executives and delivers an update on all the latest business trends.
The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined slightly in March driven by falls in both current and future expectations, following a rise to a 14-month high in February. The indicator fell 1.6% in March to 125.8 from 127.8 in February. Consumer sentiment was over 5% higher than a year ago. The decline was led by worsening views on personal finances and current business conditions, though optimism about longer-term business conditions increased. Regional sentiment declined in South and East India but rose in North, West and Central regions.
The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined in January to the lowest level since October, driven by a fall in consumers’ intentions to purchase a large household item.
London, 24 December 2013. The MNI India Business Indicator fell to 57.8 in December from 64.6 in November, the lowest since July. Eleven out of 15 current conditions indicators fell, a disappointing end to what has been a tough year for businesses.
London, 4 March 2013 MNI INDIA CONSUMER SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. NEW DELHI TIME The MNI India Consumer Indicator increased to the highest level since December 2012, driven by a rise in both current and future expectations.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and up-to-date intelligence on the state of the Indian economy. It provides a monthly snapshot of market activities as perceived by local consumers.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment serves as the basis for its own dedicated report, the MNI India Consumer Report. This monthly report delivers in-depth analysis of consumers‘ attitudes, perspectives and confidence across the country.
Written by our in-house team of economists, the MNI India Consumer Report blends the analysis of consumer confidence with relevant commentaries. It allows users to develop a thorough understanding of the Indian market and get direct access to consumers‘ views on the economy and its future.
The document provides an analysis of the financial performance and position of Dabur India Ltd, an FMCG company, through various ratios and trends. It begins with an analysis of the Indian macroeconomic environment, including GDP growth, inflation trends, and performance of the industrial and FMCG sectors. It then examines Dabur's business segments, competitors, financial ratios, cash flows, and share price over time. Big data and its impact on FMCG companies is also discussed.
The MNI India Business Sentiment is an authoritative indicator of the current pace of overall growth in India. It is based on a monthly poll of Indian executives and delivers an update on all the latest business trends.
The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined slightly in March driven by falls in both current and future expectations, following a rise to a 14-month high in February. The indicator fell 1.6% in March to 125.8 from 127.8 in February. Consumer sentiment was over 5% higher than a year ago. The decline was led by worsening views on personal finances and current business conditions, though optimism about longer-term business conditions increased. Regional sentiment declined in South and East India but rose in North, West and Central regions.
The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined in January to the lowest level since October, driven by a fall in consumers’ intentions to purchase a large household item.
London, 23 December 2013. The MNI India Consumer Indicator rose for third consecutive month in December, as consumers reported it was a better time to purchase a large household good and that they expected their finances to improve in the future. Inflation expectations fell after November peak.
London 29 November 2013. MNI India Consumer Indicator Rises to 122.5 in November from 120.2 in October. Inflation Expectations Hit a Record High. The MNI India Consumer Indicator rose for the second consecutive month in November, the highest since June, led by an improvement in personal finances. The November rise was driven by an increase in three out of the five components which make up the India Consumer Indicator.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyan...Kyna Tsai
During the period of 1–15 November, Indonesia reported its economic growth rate (real GDP growth rate) for 3Q at 5.1%, levelling off from the 5.0% for 2Q. The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines decided to maintain their policy interest rates at their respective monetary policy meetings. Retail sales in Singapore were affected by seasonal factors and showed negative growth for the first time in seven months. For more information, refer to the list of macroeconomic indices released over 1–15 November at the end of this report.
The document provides an overview of various financial markets and economic indicators from an investment advisory perspective. It discusses recent performance and outlook for domestic and global equities, bonds, commodities, real estate and other asset classes. Some key points are: domestic inflation slowed while wholesale prices contracted, Indian GDP growth was 7.3% for the year, concerns around a weak monsoon may impact inflation, global markets remain sensitive to developments in Europe and potential US rate hikes.
India's GDP growth slowed to 7% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, below expectations of 7.4% growth and lower than the previous quarter. This adds pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates to boost the economy. Other data also showed weak growth in infrastructure output and a worsening monsoon raises concerns about rural demand. The rate cut hopes will increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to ease monetary policy further at its next announcement in September.
The document discusses four investment themes in Indian equities over the next few years:
1. Falling inflation will likely lead the RBI to lower interest rates, boosting credit growth and sectors like banks and autos.
2. Lower interest rates will spur demand for loans and revive industrial production and GDP growth, benefiting cyclical sectors like infrastructure, cement, and capital goods.
3. Implementation of key government reforms in areas like land acquisition, mining, and labor will boost sectors like power, steel, and cement.
4. Recovery in the global economy and commodity prices will help commodity-linked sectors as demand increases.
The author believes positioning a portfolio across these themes can generate strong returns
This document provides a summary of news articles from the past week related to the Indian economy and public sector enterprises (PSEs). Some of the key points include:
- India is expected to remain the fastest growing major economy in the world for the second quarter in a row, with GDP growth of 7.4%. However, doubts remain about India's new GDP calculation method.
- The Finance Minister said that inflation is under control and the economy is in revival mode, on track to meet the 8-8.5% growth target for the current fiscal year.
- A Moody's report placed India's economic strength relatively high compared to other countries due to its large size, growth rate, and expectations
- The document discusses emerging markets, focusing on India and China. It argues that while China's economy is slowing due to factors like a housing bubble and overcapacity, India's economy remains strong, as evidenced by positive manufacturing and services data as well as macroeconomic stability.
- The Indian budget aims to further boost the economy through tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and reforms. With its favorable demographics and policies under Modi, India has strong long-term growth potential and opportunities for investors.
- While the Indian stock market may be overpriced, now could be a good time for entry due to the country's economic resilience and promising outlook. The document recommends sectors like banking and construction.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a survey-based measure of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. It asks respondents about changes in key business variables from the previous month. A PMI above 50 indicates expansion, while a figure below 50 indicates contraction. The PMI provides an early indicator of economic activity and is watched closely by central banks and financial markets. Recent PMI figures in India have declined due to reforms like demonetization and GST implementation, but are expected to gradually recover as businesses adapt to the new systems.
The document provides an economic summary for the United Arab Emirates for the month of June 2016. It analyzes 27 economic indicators across several categories including financial markets, global economy, money market, sectorial activities, and prices. Most indicators showed positive or neutral trends in June, with the Economic Composite Indicator Watcher reaching 74.07%, signaling positive economic growth. Business and real estate activities increased, while inflation remained low. Overall the data pointed to continued recovery and stability in the UAE economy.
The document provides an economic summary for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in June 2016. It analyzes 27 economic indicators across financial markets, global economy, sectoral activities, money market, and prices. Most indicators were positive in June, with the Economic Composite Indicator Watcher reaching 74.07%, signaling continued economic growth. Business and real estate activities increased, while inflation remained low. The document concludes global and domestic economic outlooks remain positive.
- India's stock market benchmark NIFTY delivered negative returns of -3.86% in 2015, breaking the streak of positive returns since 2012. This was due to lower corporate earnings growth, higher debt levels, and a weakening global economy.
- Key factors negatively impacting the Indian market were a slowdown in the Chinese economy, falling commodity prices, and troubled European economies. Domestic factors included deteriorating corporate sales and profitability in subsequent quarters of 2015.
- However, India remained the fastest growing major economy in 2015. The medium to long term outlook for India remains positive due to ongoing economic reforms, making it an attractive investment destination despite short term challenges.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic economic conditions and outlooks across various sectors in a monthly investment advisory. Some key points:
- Global equity markets saw declines in September due to ongoing weakness in China and fears of rising US interest rates. Domestic Indian markets were also impacted by foreign outflows.
- The RBI cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the Indian economy amid signs of recovery in industrial growth and moderating inflation. This was welcomed by markets.
- Sector outlooks varied with IT, healthcare and financials expected to outperform while metals and utilities faced challenges due to global and regulatory factors. Government policy changes could boost infrastructure.
DT2 - Indian Inflation - Populism, Politics and Procurement PricesNikhil Mohan
- Aggregate demand in India is weak and weakening, contrary to claims by the RBI.
- India's excess inflation is mostly due to high minimum support prices set by the government for agricultural products.
- Inflation in India has peaked and interest rates set by the RBI have also peaked, so there is no justification for the RBI's recent interest rate hikes.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis across various sectors in India. It discusses that the RBI kept interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review due to ongoing uncertainties around inflation. While inflation is falling, risks remain from the monsoon season, upcoming general elections, and US Fed tapering. The equity outlook remains positive with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Key sectors that are expected to perform well include banking, infrastructure, IT, and pharma. Overall, the analysis maintains a bullish stance on the Indian equity market.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for various markets including equity, debt, commodities, real estate, and forex. It discusses recent inflation and growth trends in India and globally. Recommendations are given to overweight sectors like healthcare, telecom and IT while remaining neutral or underweight on others given the domestic and international economic environment.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was estimated at 4.8% for the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's revised rate of 4.7% but still below 5%. Industrial production grew by only 1.0% for the full fiscal year. Inflation rates have fallen, with WPI hitting a 41-month low of 4.89% in April. The RBI recently cut interest rates, citing lower inflation and slowing growth. However, the economic growth outlook remains cautious as investment activity remains subdued.
C# Corner Kolkata Chapter - Developing windows 8 apps using HTML & JavascriptNitesh Luharuka
This document discusses building apps for Windows 8. It defines what an app is, notes that apps for Windows 8 are called Windows Store Apps. It covers reasons for building apps for Windows 8, prerequisites, key app concepts, languages that can be used to build apps, and templates for creating apps. The document provides an overview of important app development topics for Windows 8.
Recomendaciones a la Guía para el mejoramiento de la información sobre mortal...PAHO_RHO
Este documento proporciona recomendaciones para mejorar la información sobre mortalidad materna en los certificados de defunción. Sugieren incluir una recomendación de alto nivel para mejorar la clasificación de muertes maternas, reconocer problemas como mala clasificación y subregistro, y emitir un decreto para comprometer a las instituciones. También recomiendan simplificar los procedimientos de notificación, búsqueda e investigación de muertes maternas, capacitar a codificadores y médicos, e implementar un sistema de información simplificado
Zaječar je opština sa povoljnim poslovnim okruženjem. Informacije o investicionim potencijalima sa kojima raspolaže Zaječar, saobraćajnoj povazanosti, industrijskoj zoni, turizmu, olakšicama za rast i razvoj privrede.
London, 23 December 2013. The MNI India Consumer Indicator rose for third consecutive month in December, as consumers reported it was a better time to purchase a large household good and that they expected their finances to improve in the future. Inflation expectations fell after November peak.
London 29 November 2013. MNI India Consumer Indicator Rises to 122.5 in November from 120.2 in October. Inflation Expectations Hit a Record High. The MNI India Consumer Indicator rose for the second consecutive month in November, the highest since June, led by an improvement in personal finances. The November rise was driven by an increase in three out of the five components which make up the India Consumer Indicator.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyan...Kyna Tsai
During the period of 1–15 November, Indonesia reported its economic growth rate (real GDP growth rate) for 3Q at 5.1%, levelling off from the 5.0% for 2Q. The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines decided to maintain their policy interest rates at their respective monetary policy meetings. Retail sales in Singapore were affected by seasonal factors and showed negative growth for the first time in seven months. For more information, refer to the list of macroeconomic indices released over 1–15 November at the end of this report.
The document provides an overview of various financial markets and economic indicators from an investment advisory perspective. It discusses recent performance and outlook for domestic and global equities, bonds, commodities, real estate and other asset classes. Some key points are: domestic inflation slowed while wholesale prices contracted, Indian GDP growth was 7.3% for the year, concerns around a weak monsoon may impact inflation, global markets remain sensitive to developments in Europe and potential US rate hikes.
India's GDP growth slowed to 7% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, below expectations of 7.4% growth and lower than the previous quarter. This adds pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates to boost the economy. Other data also showed weak growth in infrastructure output and a worsening monsoon raises concerns about rural demand. The rate cut hopes will increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to ease monetary policy further at its next announcement in September.
The document discusses four investment themes in Indian equities over the next few years:
1. Falling inflation will likely lead the RBI to lower interest rates, boosting credit growth and sectors like banks and autos.
2. Lower interest rates will spur demand for loans and revive industrial production and GDP growth, benefiting cyclical sectors like infrastructure, cement, and capital goods.
3. Implementation of key government reforms in areas like land acquisition, mining, and labor will boost sectors like power, steel, and cement.
4. Recovery in the global economy and commodity prices will help commodity-linked sectors as demand increases.
The author believes positioning a portfolio across these themes can generate strong returns
This document provides a summary of news articles from the past week related to the Indian economy and public sector enterprises (PSEs). Some of the key points include:
- India is expected to remain the fastest growing major economy in the world for the second quarter in a row, with GDP growth of 7.4%. However, doubts remain about India's new GDP calculation method.
- The Finance Minister said that inflation is under control and the economy is in revival mode, on track to meet the 8-8.5% growth target for the current fiscal year.
- A Moody's report placed India's economic strength relatively high compared to other countries due to its large size, growth rate, and expectations
- The document discusses emerging markets, focusing on India and China. It argues that while China's economy is slowing due to factors like a housing bubble and overcapacity, India's economy remains strong, as evidenced by positive manufacturing and services data as well as macroeconomic stability.
- The Indian budget aims to further boost the economy through tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and reforms. With its favorable demographics and policies under Modi, India has strong long-term growth potential and opportunities for investors.
- While the Indian stock market may be overpriced, now could be a good time for entry due to the country's economic resilience and promising outlook. The document recommends sectors like banking and construction.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a survey-based measure of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. It asks respondents about changes in key business variables from the previous month. A PMI above 50 indicates expansion, while a figure below 50 indicates contraction. The PMI provides an early indicator of economic activity and is watched closely by central banks and financial markets. Recent PMI figures in India have declined due to reforms like demonetization and GST implementation, but are expected to gradually recover as businesses adapt to the new systems.
The document provides an economic summary for the United Arab Emirates for the month of June 2016. It analyzes 27 economic indicators across several categories including financial markets, global economy, money market, sectorial activities, and prices. Most indicators showed positive or neutral trends in June, with the Economic Composite Indicator Watcher reaching 74.07%, signaling positive economic growth. Business and real estate activities increased, while inflation remained low. Overall the data pointed to continued recovery and stability in the UAE economy.
The document provides an economic summary for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in June 2016. It analyzes 27 economic indicators across financial markets, global economy, sectoral activities, money market, and prices. Most indicators were positive in June, with the Economic Composite Indicator Watcher reaching 74.07%, signaling continued economic growth. Business and real estate activities increased, while inflation remained low. The document concludes global and domestic economic outlooks remain positive.
- India's stock market benchmark NIFTY delivered negative returns of -3.86% in 2015, breaking the streak of positive returns since 2012. This was due to lower corporate earnings growth, higher debt levels, and a weakening global economy.
- Key factors negatively impacting the Indian market were a slowdown in the Chinese economy, falling commodity prices, and troubled European economies. Domestic factors included deteriorating corporate sales and profitability in subsequent quarters of 2015.
- However, India remained the fastest growing major economy in 2015. The medium to long term outlook for India remains positive due to ongoing economic reforms, making it an attractive investment destination despite short term challenges.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic economic conditions and outlooks across various sectors in a monthly investment advisory. Some key points:
- Global equity markets saw declines in September due to ongoing weakness in China and fears of rising US interest rates. Domestic Indian markets were also impacted by foreign outflows.
- The RBI cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the Indian economy amid signs of recovery in industrial growth and moderating inflation. This was welcomed by markets.
- Sector outlooks varied with IT, healthcare and financials expected to outperform while metals and utilities faced challenges due to global and regulatory factors. Government policy changes could boost infrastructure.
DT2 - Indian Inflation - Populism, Politics and Procurement PricesNikhil Mohan
- Aggregate demand in India is weak and weakening, contrary to claims by the RBI.
- India's excess inflation is mostly due to high minimum support prices set by the government for agricultural products.
- Inflation in India has peaked and interest rates set by the RBI have also peaked, so there is no justification for the RBI's recent interest rate hikes.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis across various sectors in India. It discusses that the RBI kept interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review due to ongoing uncertainties around inflation. While inflation is falling, risks remain from the monsoon season, upcoming general elections, and US Fed tapering. The equity outlook remains positive with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Key sectors that are expected to perform well include banking, infrastructure, IT, and pharma. Overall, the analysis maintains a bullish stance on the Indian equity market.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for various markets including equity, debt, commodities, real estate, and forex. It discusses recent inflation and growth trends in India and globally. Recommendations are given to overweight sectors like healthcare, telecom and IT while remaining neutral or underweight on others given the domestic and international economic environment.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was estimated at 4.8% for the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's revised rate of 4.7% but still below 5%. Industrial production grew by only 1.0% for the full fiscal year. Inflation rates have fallen, with WPI hitting a 41-month low of 4.89% in April. The RBI recently cut interest rates, citing lower inflation and slowing growth. However, the economic growth outlook remains cautious as investment activity remains subdued.
C# Corner Kolkata Chapter - Developing windows 8 apps using HTML & JavascriptNitesh Luharuka
This document discusses building apps for Windows 8. It defines what an app is, notes that apps for Windows 8 are called Windows Store Apps. It covers reasons for building apps for Windows 8, prerequisites, key app concepts, languages that can be used to build apps, and templates for creating apps. The document provides an overview of important app development topics for Windows 8.
Recomendaciones a la Guía para el mejoramiento de la información sobre mortal...PAHO_RHO
Este documento proporciona recomendaciones para mejorar la información sobre mortalidad materna en los certificados de defunción. Sugieren incluir una recomendación de alto nivel para mejorar la clasificación de muertes maternas, reconocer problemas como mala clasificación y subregistro, y emitir un decreto para comprometer a las instituciones. También recomiendan simplificar los procedimientos de notificación, búsqueda e investigación de muertes maternas, capacitar a codificadores y médicos, e implementar un sistema de información simplificado
Zaječar je opština sa povoljnim poslovnim okruženjem. Informacije o investicionim potencijalima sa kojima raspolaže Zaječar, saobraćajnoj povazanosti, industrijskoj zoni, turizmu, olakšicama za rast i razvoj privrede.
Physicians would dedicate more time to keeping up to date with advances in their medical specialty. Keeping current is the main reason clinicians consult information sources. Journals are the main information source, but Google is chosen for speed and clinical search engines for reliability and comprehensiveness. The greatest frustrations with current information sources are finding relevant and up-to-date answers in a time-consuming manner and difficulty identifying the right source. A better single source of trusted information is believed to benefit patients and improve keeping current and supporting medical treatment.
The document discusses the poor financial literacy and lack of retirement savings among Filipinos. It notes that only 10% of Filipinos consciously save for retirement, while 80% of middle-class Filipinos expect to rely on their children for support in old age. Most lack formal financial plans and have difficulty sticking to budgets or paying off credit card debt. This leads to overdependence on family for healthcare costs and a lack of independence in retirement. While some Filipinos recognize the importance of saving, many lack the discipline and resources to implement financial goals. Improving financial education is seen as key to addressing these issues.
The document summarizes the status of civil registration systems, sample registration systems, and annual health surveys in India for monitoring vital statistics and health indicators. It discusses that a complete civil registration system can provide reliable fertility and mortality statistics on a real-time basis for evidence-based planning. While registration levels in India have improved, many births and deaths remain unregistered. Sample registration systems and annual health surveys have helped provide estimates but a complete civil registration system is still needed. The annual health survey in particular provides district-level data on 161 health indicators across eight states to help identify high priority districts.
1) A preservação digital requer estratégias para manter a integridade e acessibilidade da informação digital a longo prazo, já que os suportes digitais são transitórios e as tecnologias tornam-se rapidamente obsoletas.
2) É necessário preservar a presença física, conteúdo, apresentação e funcionalidade dos documentos digitais, bem como sua autenticidade, proveniência e contexto.
3) Técnicas como armazenamento em ambientes controlados, atualizações perió
This document contains an innovative lesson plan about finding the area of a sector of a circle. It begins with an introduction to the topic and key terms. Then, the teacher engages students in an activity where they determine the sector of a circle for different examples. The teacher explains the relationship between the central angle and sector area, demonstrating formulas and concepts through multiple examples. Students practice applying the formula to find the area of sectors for different circle radii and central angles. By the end of the lesson, students understand how to calculate the area of a sector of a circle using the given formula.
Womens cycling jerseys offered by sunjerseyssunjerseys
Sunjerseys offers cycling jerseys designed specifically for women's bodies, cut to fit the female figure. The jerseys are made by a woman cyclist and provide a comfortable, ventilated fit compared to larger, boxier men's styles. Customers who have tried the jerseys praise their breathable fabric, protection from sunburn, and perfect fit for cycling comfortably even in hot weather.
This document outlines a regional analysis of maternal mortality in Asia, including trends in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) across regions and country-specific results. It notes that three major Asian countries are among the top contributors to global maternal deaths and that declining fertility rates, growing GDP, increased skilled birth attendance coverage, and greater maternal education have likely all contributed to observed declines in the MMR in Asia. An interactive online tool is referenced for tracking changes in maternal deaths across regions and viewing multiple health indicators over time.
“Evaluation and Improvement of the Facilities in the Sport Complex Carranque, Málaga” In which I study the energetic consumption of the complex to propose efficiency energy changes on the facilities, providing an improvement of 40% in final costs.
Mejoramiento de la calidad de la información de la mortalidad materna PAHO_RHO
Este documento describe un proyecto para mejorar la información sobre la mortalidad materna en América Latina y el Caribe. El proyecto incluye documentar los procedimientos de cada país, elaborar una guía basada en esos procedimientos, y discutir el tema con los países participantes. Los objetivos son presentar y discutir la información sobre mortalidad materna, describir los esfuerzos nacionales para mejorarla, y fortalecer la colaboración entre la OPS y los países.
The document discusses the concept of balance of power in international relations. It describes balance of power as a rough equilibrium of power between nations. There are two types of balance of power: simple and multiple. Techniques used to achieve and maintain balance of power include alliances, counter alliances, compensations, partitions, armament/disarmament policies, interventions, dividing opposing groups, using buffer states, and neutralization. Scholars use different approaches like traditional, behavioral, post-behavioral, single case studies, qualitative, quantitative, inductive and deductive methods to study balance of power.
The document discusses Shruthi Raghuraman's work using nano biotechnology for disease detection and therapy, including creating hydrogel microparticles loaded with nanoparticles to target and slowly release medicine to cancer cells, noting various parameters and procedures investigated as well as things learned from the research project. Shruthi acknowledges several people who assisted with her authentic science research work, which she is presenting to a national science competition.
The document discusses how the B2B buying environment has changed with customers now completing 60% of purchasing decisions before engaging with suppliers. It argues that traditional sales tools like email are no longer effective and that customer relationship management (CRM) systems provide limited insights. The document proposes that social customer engagement platforms can help sales teams interact with customers as trusted partners rather than just pitching products. These platforms provide private collaborative spaces to better track customer behavior and improve sales metrics like forecast accuracy and customer retention.
This document discusses minimum wage regulation in Ireland's fast food industry. A new organization called the Quick Service Food Alliance was formed by fast food employers to challenge the minimum wages set by Joint Labour Committees. They argue that the committees' wage-setting powers violate the constitution and human rights law. If the constitutional challenge is successful, unions may push for new legislation while employers lobby political parties. The implications could include reform or abolition of the Joint Labour Committees system.
TeleRitmo is the only Mexican Music Television Network that transmits direct from Monterrey, Mexico the capital of Mexican Regional Music. TeleRitmo transmits the most complete library of Grupero music videos available in the Americas.
The document summarizes recent economic data and developments in India:
- Industrial production posted its first increase in four months in January, rising 0.1% year-over-year, though manufacturing output continued to decline at a slower pace.
- Inflation fell to a 25-month low in February as vegetable prices declined, while exports ended a seven-month streak of increases and the trade deficit narrowed.
- GDP growth was 4.7% in the final quarter of 2013, below expectations, with services growing 7% while agriculture and manufacturing contracted. The RBI raised interest rates to curb inflation.
The document summarizes India's economic landscape in July 2014. It discusses key points from the government's first budget, recent economic data, and the state of economic growth. The budget aimed to boost growth to 7-8% by promoting manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and reducing the fiscal deficit. However, it lacked details on subsidy reform and GST implementation. Recent data showed easing inflation but industrial growth remains subdued, with GDP at 4.6% in the last quarter. The government forecasts 5.4-5.9% growth this fiscal year but weaker external factors may limit growth to the lower end.
London, 27 November 2013 MNI INDIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. NEW DELHI TIME. MNI India Business Indicator Increased to 64.6 in November from 59.8 in October. Production and New Orders Recover. Thirteen out of the 15 current conditions indicators included in the report increased in November. Employment was the only indicator to decline and Inventories remained unchanged compared with October.
- Indian equity markets have risen 2.3% in the past week and 15% year-to-date due to positive macroeconomic data. Q3 results saw no major negatives.
- HSBC's PMI for India in January was at a six-month high of 57.2. Auto companies showed a strong rebound, especially in four-wheelers and industrial segments. Tractor maker M&M delivered robust results.
- The document maintains a positive outlook on equity markets for the year expecting 20-25% returns given improving global and domestic macroeconomic conditions.
The MNI India Business Indicator fell to 61.9 in April following an end-of-the-year rise to 65.5 in March, although sentiment was well above the same month a year earlier.
The document summarizes the Indian economic landscape in May 2014. It discusses the landslide election victory of Narendra Modi's BJP party, which has driven stock markets and the rupee higher. Economic data showed a modest improvement with exports rising and the trade deficit narrowing. However, industrial production and manufacturing continued to contract in March, though at a slower pace. Consumer price inflation rose to its highest in three months in April, raising fears that a below-normal monsoon could push food prices up. The RBI left interest rates unchanged at 8% in April, focusing on reducing inflation to 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016.
The document summarizes recent economic developments in India. Business confidence rose to its highest level since November 2012 due to optimism around the new Prime Minister's plans. Industrial production grew 3.4% in April, the highest in 13 months, led by manufacturing. However, growth remains subdued at 4.6% and below normal monsoon could push up food prices, challenging interest rate cuts. The new government aims to boost investment, manufacturing and foreign inflows to revive the economy.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose 3.3% in June to 126.2, its highest level since February, as consumers were more confident about future economic growth and household incomes under the new government. All components of the indicator increased except durable buying conditions. Consumers were more optimistic about their personal finances, current and future business conditions, employment outlook, and inflation expectations. The interest rates expectations indicator and car purchase indicator also rose. However, confidence in the real estate market fell for the fourth straight month.
The consumer sentiment indicator in India fell to its lowest level since January as consumers were less optimistic about the future. The report was conducted before the election results that showed a clear mandate for Narendra Modi, though polls had pointed to his win. While perceptions about current business conditions deteriorated, consumers were hopeful the new Modi-led government would implement business friendly policies and improve employment conditions and prices. The stock investment indicator reached a series high as stock prices continued rising.
- Indian equity markets fell 2% last week, marking the second worst year for Sensex since 1980 with returns of -25% in rupees and -42% in dollars due to slowing GDP growth, policy paralysis, and corruption.
- For 2012, GDP growth is expected to be 6.5-7% and inflation to cool to 6.5-7%, leading to nominal GDP growth of 13-14% and similar corporate earnings growth. The PE multiple is also expected to increase from 12 to 14 times.
- Key data to be released in the coming weeks includes export-import data, PMI manufacturing data, and inflation numbers for December. The earnings season will begin on January 10th.
The document provides an overview of the Indian and global economic and market environment from July 09-13, 2012. It summarizes key data points such as Indian GDP growth projections of 6-6.5% for FY13, upcoming inflation data and its implications, recent Chinese GDP growth of 7.6%, and positive FII flows into Indian equity markets. It also previews upcoming company results and maintains a positive outlook on Indian markets.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
The document provides a weekly summary of equity market and macroeconomic developments in India and globally. It mentions that the Indian equity markets corrected slightly last week and oil marketing companies increased petrol and diesel prices. It also summarizes industrial production, inflation, and other economic data from India and other countries. It concludes with a discussion on results from State Bank of India and an outlook on public sector banks.
The document provides an overview of domestic and global macroeconomic news and market developments from November 19-23, 2012. Domestically, the winter parliamentary session began with no consensus on key reforms. Internationally, US Black Friday sales were as expected and the US economy is improving. Europe continues discussing Greece's debt issues.
- India's manufacturing activity expanded in June but at a slower pace than in May, as export orders and inventory accumulation eased, according to a survey. However, operating conditions continued to improve for the 24th straight month and business confidence was upbeat.
- Services activity in India also grew in June but at its slowest pace in three months, as inflation increased and new export business slowed. However, growth prospects were seen as strengthening overall.
- Asia's factory activity declined in June due to weak demand from China and advanced nations, with manufacturing contracting in major economies like Japan and South Korea. This is impacting Asia's economic recovery.
The document provides a weekly media update with news related to the Indian economy from various sources. Some key points from the articles:
1. The RBI said India's economy remains resilient and is on track to become the fastest growing in the world, despite global headwinds. Inflation is expected to moderate further if commodity prices remain stable.
2. Industrial production grew 19.6% in May, the highest in 12 months, boosted by a low base last year. However, retail inflation remained above 7% for the sixth month in a row in June.
3. While economic growth momentum is holding up, risks remain from global monetary tightening, geopolitical tensions, and rising prices.
The document provides summaries of recent news articles related to the Indian economy:
1) Eminent economist Lawrence Summers says India has the potential to grow at 9% for a decade if bold reforms are taken. However, growth of over 7.5% will require further reforms at national, state, and cultural levels.
2) The ADB kept India's growth forecast unchanged at 7.4% for FY16 and 7.8% for FY17 but warned of downside risks from slow private investment and rural demand.
3) Recent GDP data showed a pick-up in investment demand and manufacturing contribution to growth, but overall growth was on a high base from last year.
The document provides a weekly summary of domestic and global macroeconomic news and equity market performance for the week of January 7-11, 2013. Domestically, IIP growth contracted and the trade deficit narrowed, while inflation is expected to be around 7%. Two companies, Indus Ind Bank and Infosys, reported strong quarterly results. Globally, the ECB held rates steady and US senators urged raising the debt ceiling, while China's inflation rose. The outlook expects a 50 bps RBI rate cut and private banks to lead results.
The document is a monthly report by MNI Indicators on consumer sentiment in India for July 2014. Some key points:
- The MNI India Consumer Indicator fell slightly from June as consumers were less optimistic about current conditions and future expectations.
- Five of the six components that make up the indicator declined, with personal finances seeing the largest drop.
- Respondents were less confident about their current and future personal finances despite tax measures in the recent budget.
- Sentiment on real estate fell for the fifth straight month while the car purchase indicator rose after an extension of tax cuts.
The document provides a weekly summary of global and domestic economic and market conditions from May 06-10, 2013. Key points include:
- Global equity markets reached multi-year highs on expectations of strong economic recovery.
- US and Japanese data showed continued economic growth and aggressive monetary policies respectively.
- India's industrial production grew 2.5% in March, while inflation is expected to remain below targets.
- Most Indian indices rose over 1% last week with banking, consumer, and pharma sectors reporting strong earnings.
The Chicago Business Barometer fell slightly to 54.4 in August from 54.7 in July. While production and new orders softened, they remained above their 12-month averages and up from earlier in the year. Companies continued building inventories at the fastest pace since November 2014 in anticipation of stronger demand in the fourth quarter. Employment rose in August but remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month, and companies do not plan to expand their workforces in the near term.
The Chicago Business Barometer made a positive start to the third quarter, jumping above 50 after two
months in contraction, leaving economic activity expanding at the fastest pace since January.
- The Chicago Business Barometer remained below 50 in March, pointing to a slowdown in the US economy. The Barometer increased slightly to 46.3 but was still in contraction territory.
- Production increased in March but remained below 50, while new orders and order backlogs rose slightly but remained contracted. Employment also rose slightly.
- While some of the weakness may be due to weather and port strikes, the continued weakness in March suggests a wider slowdown. Purchasers expect orders to pick up in the next quarter but demand remained soft in the first quarter.
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 5.4 points to 60.8 in November from a one year high of 66.2 in October driven by a double digit drop in New Orders.
- The Chicago Business Barometer rose 5.7 points to 66.2 in October, the highest level in one year, fueled by a sharp gain in new orders, which increased to the highest since October 2013.
- Production and employment also strengthened, and order backlogs expanded faster, suggesting continued strong demand and solid economic growth.
- While inflationary pressures eased due to lower oil prices, the domestic economy is growing firmly according to the survey results.
Embargoed until 9:45 a.m. ET, 30 September 2014 The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.8 points to a still robust 60.5 in September, as Production and New Orders slowed while fims reported a record rise in stocks and a sharp increase in input prices.
Embargoed until 9:45 AM ET, 29 August 2014 The Chicago Business Barometer surged 11.7 points to 64.3 in August, regaining all the lost ground seen in July, and pointing to continued strength in the US economy.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.0 points in July to 91.1 after hitting a record low in May, but remains below year-ago levels. Consumers felt better about current finances but were downbeat on the future economy. High inflation remains a key concern despite a slight easing in expectations. Tighter monetary policy and new sanctions will likely weaken growth and sentiment going forward.
Russian consumer sentiment increased slightly in July according to a consumer sentiment index. The index rose 2 points to 91.1 in July from 89.1 in June, though sentiment remains below levels from earlier in the year prior to Russia's annexation of Crimea. Consumers felt better about their current economic circumstances but were still downbeat about the future outlook. Pessimism is expected to continue as sanctions over Ukraine's crisis further impact Russia's already weakening economy.
Consumer sentiment in China increased slightly in July according to the Westpac MNI China CSI. The index rose 1.9% due to a sharp recovery in long-term business expectations, though confidence remained subdued. Four of the five components rose between June and July, with the largest increase seen in expectations for business conditions over the next five years. Bank deposits remained the preferred savings vehicle among consumers, followed by wealth management products and real estate.
The document is a monthly business report from MNI Indicators on business sentiment in Russia. Some key points:
- The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose in July to the highest level in three months, though it remains below levels at the start of 2014 due to economic weakness and geopolitical tensions from Russia's actions in Ukraine.
- Production conditions for large Russian companies slumped to a seven-month low in July, while new orders and export orders improved for the second straight month.
- Companies have been reducing inventories but the pace of decline has slowed, with the inventories indicator just below neutral levels. Input prices declined for the fourth month in a row.
- Access to credit
Russian business sentiment improved in July according to a survey by MNI Indicators, with the MNI Russia Business Indicator rising to 54.6 from 50.5 in June. While the initial impact of sanctions has faded, sentiment remains below levels at the start of 2014. New orders and export orders increased in July but production slumped to a seven-month low amid a weak economic backdrop. The outlook remains gloomy as high inflation and interest rates suggest the economy will barely grow in 2014, and further meaningful sanctions could push growth into negative territory.
Russian consumer sentiment recovered slightly in June after hitting a record low in May, though sentiment remained lower than the previous year due to weak economic growth and Russia's actions in Crimea. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.2% in June, but was still 9.6% below the previous year's level. While purchasing intentions for household goods increased slightly, expectations for personal finances declined to a new low. Inflation expectations also rose to a new high, exacerbating consumers' concerns about high prices and interest rates on loans. The small recovery in sentiment in June was welcomed, but the economist noted that the economic backdrop remained gloomy.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose for the first time in five months in June, up 2.2% from May, though it remained below year-ago levels. Consumer sentiment increased across most regions except the Urals, where it declined to a record low. Confidence rose in lower income groups but fell slightly among high earners. Respondents were more optimistic about business conditions and purchasing durable goods in the near term, but inflation expectations also reached a new high.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose to 126.2 in June, its highest level since February, as consumers were more confident about future economic growth and incomes under the new Modi-led government. All components of the indicator increased except durable buying conditions. Business conditions expectations for both the short-term and long-term hit record highs, with the government and its policies cited as reasons for optimism. Consumer inflation expectations fell to their lowest since December 2012. The chief economist commented that the rising sentiment is due to the recovery in the Indian economy and optimism around Prime Minister Modi's ability to revive growth.
The Chicago Business Barometer eased slightly in June but remained at a high level, pointing to a rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter following a sharp fall in the first quarter. While new orders fell from a seven-month high, production rose firmly above 70, close to its level in April. The strength in production and new orders underpinned the Barometer during the second quarter. Some respondents indicated they built inventories ahead of a possible strike by longshoremen at ports. The chief economist commented that while growth in the first half of the year will be slower than initially expected, upcoming data in the third quarter will be important in determining the timing of the first interest rate hike.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Economic growth remains weak at 0.9% in Q1 2014, down from 1.3% in Q1 2013, due to sanctions and a weakening currency. Inflation rose in May to its highest since 2011. Industrial production grew 2.8% in May, led by a 4.4% rise in manufacturing. However, car sales declined 12.2% in May from a year ago as higher inflation and a weaker ruble hurt consumer spending. The economic outlook remains challenging amid geopolitical tensions.
Russian business sentiment recovered slightly in June from a five month low in May, though it remained considerably lower than at the start of 2014 due to sanctions and economic slowdown. The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose to 50.5 in June from 49.2 in May but was 12.6% below June 2013 levels. Both production and new orders rose marginally in June while export orders increased but remained below the breakeven level of 50. The chief economist commented that while tensions in Ukraine continued, calmer rhetoric and actions on sanctions eased business concerns.
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3. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Contents
4
Editorial
32
What the Panel Said
6
Executive Summary
34
Data Tables
10
Economic Landscape
38
Methodology
14
Indicators
15
MNI India Business Indicator
16
Production
17
New Orders
18
Export Orders
19
Productive Capacity
21
Order Backlogs
22
Employment
23
Inventories
24
Input Prices
25
Prices Received
26
Financial Position
27
Interest Rates Paid
29
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
30
Supplier Delivery Times
31
Availability of Credit
3
4. 4
Spitzzeile Titel
It’s Not all the Fed’s Fault
Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan
has lambasted US monetary policy for not taking
emerging markets into consideration.
5. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has
lambasted US monetary policy for not taking emerging
markets into consideration. While it’s true that the
Federal Reserve doesn’t appear at all sensitive to the
problems their domestic policies cause, unwinding
quantitative easing is a key step on the path back to
normalisation.
The currency has outperformed most other emerging
markets since Rajan took office. While growth remains
poor, the current account deficit has shrunk, helped
by curbs on gold imports, and foreign exchange
reserves have increased. Financial markets have now
turned their attention to perceived more vulnerable
countries such as Turkey or Argentina.
As emerging markets around the world were once
again thrown into turmoil this year, some expected, or
hoped, that the US Fed would hold back on their
tapering of asset purchases which began in December.
It was not to be and the Fed trimmed purchases of
treasuries and mortgage backed securities to $65
billion.
India, though, is by no means out of the woods and
while the central bank can better formulate its policy
framework to attempt to eradicate the current
damaging high rate of inflation, it is the government
that needs to take action to ensure India continues to
grow. With the May elections looming, India could yet
find itself back in the firing line.
Many erupted with consternation that in a statement
accompanying the move, the Fed didn’t even mention
emerging markets. The Fed would argue that its remit
is domestic, although clearly its actions reverberate
globally.
Philip Uglow
Chief Economist
MNI Indicators
“International monetary co-operation has broken
down,” said Rajan in a recent interview. “Industrial
countries have to play a part in restoring that [cooperation], and they can’t at this point wash their
hands off and say, we’ll do what we need to and you
do the adjustment.”
Still, the Fed’s tapering has been flagged well in
advance and monetary policy in the US needs to
adjust at some point. I doubt there would ever be a
good time to turn off the monetary tap.
Since taking over as Governor of the RBI in September,
Rajan has made all the right noises for global markets.
He has set his sight clearly on inflation and raised
official interest rates three times since coming to
office, most recently in late January, when against the
judgement of his colleagues, he decided to hike the
policy rate by 25 basic points to 8%. Importantly, his
decisions have never been taken with a sense of
panic but he has always focused on the long-term
goals - the move to introduce an inflation targeting
regime is a case in point.
5
6. 6
Spitzzeile Titel
Executive Summary
The MNI India Business Indicator fell to 58.2 in
February from 63.4 in January. Nine out of the 15
current conditions indicators included in the report
fell in February.
7. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
The MNI India Business Indicator fell to 58.2 in
February from 63.4 in January, a decline of 8.2% on
the month. The worsening was led by a fall in business
conditions among service sector companies.
Expectations for business conditions in three months’
time slipped to 69.5 in February from 72.0 in January,
the lowest since October.
Nine out of the 15 current conditions indicators
included in the report fell in February. For business
expectations in the next three months, four indicators
fell from the previous month.
Following a pick-up in January, Production eased to
62.0 in February from 64.4 in January, although this
was still 11.5% higher than last year.
The New Orders Indicator declined 2% on the month
to 62.3 in February from 63.6 in January, led by
construction and service sector companies.
The Export Orders Indicator also fell to 59.8 in
February from 61.4 in January, the lowest since
November.
since October and they rose to 55.6 in February from
54.4 in the previous month.
Many companies continued to complain about the
high rate of inflation that was adding to their costs.
The Input Price Indicator increased to 73.0 in February
from 69.8 in January led by increases among both
services and manufacturing firms.
The Prices Received Indicator fell to 56.2 in February
from 60.6 in January, the lowest level since October,
although still at a relatively high level.
The Financial Position Indicator rose to 69.3 in
February from 68.2 in January, the highest since
November and well above the 56.3 posted in the
same month a year earlier.
The Interest Rates Paid Indicator increased to 67.3
from 60.5 in January. The decline in interest costs
paid by companies over the past two months was
reversed in February following a hike in official rates
by the Reserve Bank of India.
Following a sharp rise in the previous month, the
Productive Capacity Indicator fell back a little to 56.1
in February from 58.0 in January.
The Effect of the Rupee Exchange Rate Indicator
remained broadly flat at 44.2 in February compared
with 44.3 in the previous month as companies
continued to report that the current level of the rupee
was hurting their business.
Order Backlogs accelerated to 39.8 in February, up
from 35.6 in January. The indicator has fallen sharply
over the past year as the economy has slowed
considerably, although recovered partially in February,
after hitting a record low.
The indicator measuring the Availability of Credit fell
from 56.8 in January to 54.9, a decline of 3.3% on
the month. The indicator has remained broadly stable
since last year, averaging 53.1 in the past twelve
months.
Between January and February, the Employment
Indicator fell from 51.8 to 50.8, as the indicator for
manufacturing companies fell into contraction.
The Inventory level of Finished Goods Indicator
accelerated further to a new series high of 64.9
compared with 62.1 in January.
Supplier Delivery Times have steadily lengthened
7
9. w
Consumer price
inflation eased to a
two year low of
8.8% in January.
This was led by an easing in food price inflation,
which accounts for almost half of the CPI basket, to
9.9% from 12.2% in December.
10. 10
Spitzzeile Titel
Economic Landscape
Latest economic data has provided a ray of hope
from the economic gloom that has surrounded India.
Consumer price inflation hit a two year low and the
trade deficit continued to fall. Industrial production,
though, has been persistently weak.
11. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Latest economic data has provided a ray of hope from
the economic gloom that has surrounded India for
many months. Consumer price inflation hit a two year
low and wholesale price inflation moderated as
vegetable prices declined. Moreover, the trade deficit
continued to fall helped by higher exports and lower
imports of gold and silver.
Industrial production, though, has been persistently
weak, as manufacturing output contracted for the
third consecutive month in December. In spite of the
continued weakness in the economy and fall in
headline inflation, the Reserve Bank of India hiked its
policy rate by 25 basis points to 8% on January 28,
citing continued inflationary pressures.
Slow economic growth
Economic growth increased by 4.8% on the year in
the three months to September, up from 4.4% in the
previous quarter, although below the 5.2% seen in
the same period a year ago.
The acceleration in growth may have been due partly
to a good monsoon which helped boost agricultural
output, while manufacturing activity remained
anaemic. Agricultural output rose 4.6% on the year,
compared with 2.7% in the previous quarter.
Manufacturing posted a 1% increase, up from the
1.2% fall seen in the previous quarter, although only
0.1% above the same period a year earlier.
On an expenditure basis, higher exports and a surge
in investment were the main drivers of growth,
expanding by 16.3% and 2.6% respectively on the
year, having both fallen by 1.2% in the three months
to June.
Private consumption, the largest component of GDP,
rose 2.2% in the three months to September compared
with a year earlier, up from 1.6% in the three months
to June, but down from 3.5% in the same quarter last
year.
The Finance Minister P.Chidambaram expects the
economy will expand 5.2% in the third and fourth
quarter of the fiscal year, and 4.9% in 2014.
The International Monetary Fund has revised up
India‘s growth forecast to 4.4% for the current fiscal
year, more than half a percentage point up from
October‘s estimate, due to a normal monsoon and
improved exports.
Industrial outlook shows minor recovery
The Reserve Bank’s Industrial Outlook Survey, showed
that the Business Expectation Index, a gauge of
manufacturing
business
sentiment,
improved
marginally in the quarter ending December to 98.8
from 97.3 in the quarter ending September.
Expectations for the next quarter ending March rose
to 112.7 compared with the previous quarter’s 109.9.
Current assessment and expectations sentiment for
production, order books, capacity utilisation, exports
and imports improved slightly, showing that companies
were more optimistic about the demand outlook.
Industrial output continued to fall
Industrial production contracted for the third
consecutive month, falling 0.6% on the year in
December. November‘s industrial output was revised
up to a 1.3% decline from the previously reported
2.1% decline.
Manufacturing output slumped by 1.6% in December
compared with a year earlier, although up from a
decline of 2.7% in November (revised up from -3.5%
previously). Overall, eight out of the 22 industry
groups within the manufacturing sector contracted in
December, led by Radio, TV and communication
equipment & apparatus which posted a fall of 35.7%
on the year. This was followed by a 26.1% decline in
output for Furniture and a 22.1% fall in Office,
accounting & computing machinery.
After growing by 1.7% on the year in November,
mining output growth slowed to 0.4% in December.
Output of consumer durables, a measure of consumer
demand, posted the thirteenth consecutive decline,
falling 16.2% in December compared with a fall of
21.5% in November. Capital goods output, a proxy for
investments in the economy, fell 3% in December
compared with a decline of 0.1% in November.
11
12. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Industrial Production
250
25%
20%
200
15%
10%
150
5%
0%
100
help to revive consumption and investment in a
sustainable way. The RBI, however, said that if retail
inflation eases as projected, it does not foresee a
need for further monetary policy tightening in the
near-term.
The RBI expects consumer price inflation to stay
above 9% during the final quarter of the fiscal year
ending March, before easing to 7.5-8.5% for the
quarter that ends in March 2015, with the balance of
risks tilted to the upside.
-5%
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan made clear that
inflation needed to be brought down to a low and
stable level, so that monetary policy could eventually
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Wholesale Price Inflation*
Consumer Price Inflation**
Source: *Office of the Economic Advisor, India, **MOSPI
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
0%
Feb-13
RBI hikes repo rate to 8%
The RBI raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to
8% from 7.75% at its January meeting, citing the
elevated level of consumer price inflation.
Inflation
Dec-12
Wholesale price inflation decelerated to an eight
month low of 5% in January, down from 6.2% in
December. The slowdown was largely driven by
vegetable prices that expanded 22% in January,
compared with a near 30% rise in December.
Consequently, food price inflation eased to 3% in
January, half of the 6% outturn seen in December.
Fiscal budget deficit
The government budget deficit stood at Rs.5.1 trillion
($82 billion) in the April-December period, or 95.2%
of the target for the year ending March 2014. Net tax
receipts totalled Rs. 6.47 trillion in the first ten months
to March 2014, while total expenditure was Rs. 11.64
trillion.
Oct-12
Inflation slows as vegetable prices decelerated
Consumer price inflation eased to a two year low of
8.8% in January compared with 9.9% in December
2013. Food price inflation, which is almost half of the
index, eased to 9.9%, down from 12.2% in December.
The moderation was driven by cooling in vegetable
prices that rose by 21.9% compared with a year
earlier, down from 38.5% in November.
Aug-12
Industrial Production
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India
Jun-12
Industrial Production y/y % (RHS)
A central bank panel set up by the Governor has
proposed to revamp its policymaking structure by
setting a long-term consumer price inflation target of
4%, plus or minus 2%. As inflation remains high, it
recommended that the goal should be phased in
gradually. The RBI initially aims CPI to fall to 8% by
January 2015 and 6% by January 2016.
Apr-12
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-10%
2008
50
2007
12
13. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
The gap in public finances has put the nation’s debt
rating at risk, with most credit rating agencies keeping
India on alert with a high probability of a downgrade.
The government plans to defer some subsidy
payments to next year, while focusing on speeding up
the sale of stakes in state-run firms and minority
stakes in some private companies. The government
raised over Rs. 610 billion from selling licenses for the
mobile internet spectrum in February.
Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram expects
the budget gap to fall to a six year low of 4.6% of
GDP, below the target of 4.8% for this fiscal year, and
down from 4.9% seen in the previous 12 months. He
said that there was a need to bring the deficit further
down to 3% of GDP in 2016-17. The fiscal deficit for
2014-15 was projected at 4.1% of GDP in the interim
budget presented on February 17.
Foreign reserves rise
Foreign exchange reserves rose to $292.3 billion in
the week ending February 7, from $291.1 billion a
week earlier. According to the RBI’s weekly statistical
supplement, foreign currency assets, the biggest
component of the forex reserves, rose by $1.26 billion
to $265.8 billion. These are expressed in dollar terms
and include the effect of appreciation or depreciation
of the non-US currencies such as the euro, pound
and yen, held in its reserves.
Moves by the RBI have greatly strengthened India’s
foreign exchange reserve position, leaving it less
vulnerable to another run on the currency. The value
of India’s gold reserves remained steady at $20.1
billion.
Trade deficit shrinks
India’s trade deficit narrowed to $9.9 billion in
January, down from a $10.1 billion deficit in
December, and almost halving the deficit of $18.9
billion seen in the same period last year. Higher
exports and lower imports of gold and silver led the
improvement.
Exports rose for the seventh straight month in January
to $26.8 billion, up 3.8% on the year compared with
the 3.5% growth witnessed in December. Imports fell
18.1% on the year to $36.7 billion in January. Oil
imports declined to $13.2 billion, lower than the
$13.8 billion seen a month earlier and 10.1% below
the level in January 2013. Gold and silver imports
were down 77% to $1.7 billion compared with $7.5
billion in the same month a year earlier.
In 10 months to January, the trade deficit totaled
$120 billion, down from $167.8 billion in the same
period a year back.
The government expects to keep the current account
deficit at $45 billion in the fiscal year that ends in
March.
Car sales decline
Passenger car sales declined for the fourth consecutive
month in January, to 160,289 units, 7.6% down from
a year earlier. Sales of commercial vehicles fell for
ninth month in a row by 20.9% compared with a year
back.
High inflation, rising fuel prices and interest rates
have resulted in high cost of ownership, which has
impacted the demand for cars.
In 2013, car sales declined for the first time in 11
years. Sales of passenger cars dropped by 10% in
2013, down from a 3% growth in 2012.
In the interim budget, Finance Minister Palaniappan
Chidambaram cut excise duty on small cars, two
wheelers, and commercial vehicles to 8% from 12%,
providing some relief to the automobile industry.
13
15. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
58.2
MNI India Business Indicator
Business Confidence Declines
Business confidence declined in February, although
was up compared with a year earlier, suggesting that
the worst is over for the Indian economy.
The MNI India Business Indicator fell to 58.2 in
February from 63.4 in January, a decline of 8.2% on
the month. The worsening was led by a fall in business
optimism among service sector companies, while
conditions remained stable for both manufacturing
and construction sector companies.
MNI India Business Indicator
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Future expectations have also increased significantly
since April, but the acceleration has eased in recent
months. Expectations for business conditions in three
months’ time slipped to 69.5 in February from 72.0 in
January, the lowest since October.
The Future Expectations Indicator for construction
companies improved to the highest since October.
Optimism among manufacturing firms remained at
elevated levels and broadly stable from last month.
Service sector companies were the least optimistic
about the future with the indicator posting a significant
decline this month. All three sectors, though, remained
well above the breakeven level.
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
40
Nov-12
Business confidence was hit hard in the first half of
2013 as India faced a potential financial and economic
meltdown following fears the US Federal Reserve
would taper its bond purchases, which caused
widespread panic in emerging markets. Sentiment
subsequently recovered and has trended higher since
the summer of 2013, although has been broadly
stable since September.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Nine out of the 15 current conditions indicators
included in the report fell in February with seven of
them posting the lowest reading since December. For
business expectations in the next three months, four
indicators fell from the previous month.
“We are expecting an improvement in overall
business conditions after the elections.”
Real Estate Development & Holding company
MNI India Business Indicator
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
53.6
59.4
59.8
64.6
57.8
63.4
58.2
Future Expectations
53.8
77.1
68.8
69.5
71.1
72.0
69.5
15
16. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
62.0
Production
Falls on the Month
Following a pick-up in January, Production eased in
February, although was still 11.5% higher than last
year.
The Production Indicator declined to 62.0 in February
from 64.4 in January. Production bottomed out last
summer and since then has been on a rising trend,
averaging 61.6 in the past eight months. The three
month trend since August has remained broadly
stable around 60.
Production
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Service sector companies reported a significant
decline in the Production Indicator while manufacturing
companies saw a small fall. For construction sector
companies, the Production indicator increased to the
highest since August.
Jan-14
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Industrial Production to Catch Up
70
4%
65
3%
60
2%
55
1%
50
0%
45
-1%
40
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
-3%
May-13
30
Apr-13
-2%
Mar-13
35
Jan-13
Companies were also less optimistic about production
over the next three months. The Future Expectations
Indicator for Production slowed to 69.7 in February,
from 71.6 in January. Service sector companies were
the least optimistic about the future level of Production
as their expectations deteriorated significantly from
January to February. In contrast, more manufacturing
and construction sector companies expected their
production to expand in three months‘ time, with the
latter the most optimistic among the three sectors.
Feb-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
30
Nov-12
Latest official data on industrial production showed
output fell for the third consecutive month by 0.6% on
the year in December, after contracting by 1.3% in
November. The narrower measure of manufacturing
output fell 1.6% compared with a year earlier following
a decline of 2.7% in November.
Feb-13
16
Industrial Production y/y % (RHS)*
MNI Production
*Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India
Production
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
55.6
67.3
57.5
65.3
59.7
64.4
62.0
Future Expectations
49.7
76.8
64.8
68.8
66.2
71.6
69.7
17. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
62.3
New Orders
Lowest Since December
Expectations for New Orders in three months‘ time
rose to 67.2, having remained flat at 65.5 last month.
The increase was led by was led by more manufacturing
and construction sector companies that expected
demand to increase in three months‘ time. Optimism
among service sector companies declined slightly.
80
70
60
50
40
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
30
Feb-13
The New Orders Indicator for manufacturing sector
companies increased to the highest since September,
while for service sector companies it declined, having
remained broadly stable for the previous three months.
90
Dec-12
The three month trend in New Orders has been
reasonably stable over the past six months, with the
indicator hovering around 60. It eased slightly to 62.1
in February compared with 62.3 in January.
New Orders
Nov-12
The New Orders Indicator declined 2% on the month
to 62.3 in February from 63.6 in January, led by
fewer construction and service sector companies
reporting higher new orders.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“There are three big orders with our company
this month.”
Heavy construction company
New Orders
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
55.8
69.1
59.5
62.9
60.3
63.6
62.3
Future Expectations
53.2
78.5
69.5
68.5
65.4
65.5
67.2
17
18. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
59.8
Export Orders
Lowest Since November
Export Orders have trended upwards since April last
year and a decline in February ended three months of
successive rises. The Export Indicators indicator fell
to 59.8 in February from 61.4 in January, the lowest
since November.
Export Orders
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Expectations for three months’ time rose sharply from
62.9 in January to 68.2 in February, nearly recouping
all of the fall seen in January. Construction sector
companies were highly optimistic about future Export
Orders with the indicator increasing significantly
above the 50 breakeven mark. Manufacturing and
services companies’ expectations about future
external demand also improved, though by a smaller
extent.
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Feb-13
The depreciation of the Rupee increased the
competitiveness of Indian exports in 2013, although
rising input costs have offset much of this gain for a
lot of companies.
Apr-13
30
Mar-13
The decline was led by the service sector as the
number of companies whose exports orders were up
almost halved compared with the previous month.
Manufacturing and construction sector companies
reported higher export orders, with the latter the most
optimistic among the three sectors.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Export Orders Movement
32
70
30
60
28
50
26
40
24
30
22
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
20
Apr-13
20
Feb-13
18
MNI Export Orders (RHS)
Exports,FOB, USD B*
*Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Export Orders
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
53.7
63.2
55.6
58.8
60.5
61.4
59.8
Future Expectations
56.0
75.5
57.7
60.8
67.9
62.9
68.2
19. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
56.1
Productive Capacity
Eases Slightly
Following a sharp rise in the previous month, the
Productive Capacity Indicator fell back a little to 56.1
in February from 58.0 in January.
The Productive Capacity Indicator has been above the
50 breakeven mark since May, and after rising to a
record high in September, it has been on a downward
trend.
Productive Capacity
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Companies’ expectations about the next three months
also declined, with the Future Expectations Indicator
falling by 6.7% on the month to 60.0 in February
from 64.3 in January. The indicator for construction
sector companies increased, while it declined for both
services and manufacturing sector companies.
40
35
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
30
Nov-12
Productive Capacity improved significantly for the
construction sector, pushing the indicator well into
expansion territory. There were declines in both the
manufacturing and service sectors, with the latter
falling into contraction.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Our company is operating at its optimum
capacity.”
Containers & Packaging company
Productive Capacity
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
56.5
64.0
58.1
61.3
51.3
58.0
56.1
Future Expectations
56.1
70.3
65.1
65.2
57.5
64.3
60.0
19
21. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
39.8
Order Backlogs
Rise Markedly
Order Backlogs have fallen sharply over the past year
as the economy has slowed considerably, although
recovered partially in February from a record low in
January.
The indicator accelerated to 39.8 in February, up from
35.6 in January. The downturn in the economy seen
in recent years has increased the output gap, leaving
it with a greater amount of spare capacity, so many
companies are able to quickly turnaround incoming
orders.
Order Backlogs
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
More companies expected higher order backlogs over
the next three months in anticipation of higher orders.
The Future Expectations Indicator increased to 40.1
compared with 35.2 in January.
Apr-13
25
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Manufacturing and construction sector companies
expected an increase in their backlogs over the coming
three months, while the indicator for service sector
companies slumped. The Expectations Indicators
remained below the 50 breakeven mark for all three
sectors.
“There are no pending orders.”
Consumer goods manufacturing company
Order Backlogs
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
-
52.9
42.9
45.3
41.7
35.6
39.8
Future Expectations
-
57.5
43.4
48.8
43.7
35.2
40.1
21
22. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Employment
Future Expectations Hit a
Record High
Companies’ expectations about future employment hit
a record high in February due to a considerable rise in
the number of companies that expected that they will
need to take on more employees in the next three
months.
The Expectations Indicator increased to 57.5 in
February from 53.4 in the previous month.
Construction sector companies were the most
optimistic about hiring in the next three months, while
there were smaller gains for manufacturing and
service sector companies.
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
40
Jun-13
Between January and February, the Employment
Indicator fell from 51.8 to 50.8, as the indicator for
manufacturing companies fell into contraction. There
was also a fall among service sector companies, while
construction companies were more optimistic about
raising employment, with the indicator posting the
third consecutive increase.
Employment
May-13
The Employment indicator asks companies whether
they have an adequate number of employees and
although the majority of companies continued to say
that the number of employees they had was “just
right”, there was a rise in those who said they had
“too many” employees.
50.8
Apr-13
22
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Our company will recruit more employees in
the coming months.”
Electrical
component
and
equipment
company
Employment
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
-
53.3
51.3
48.9
Future Expectations
-
53.4
51.1
49.5
50.0
51.8
50.8
52.2
53.4
57.5
23. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
64.9
Inventories
At Series High
The Inventory level of Finished Goods Indicator
accelerated further to a new series high of 64.9
compared with 62.1 in January.
After dropping to the 50 mark in October and
November, the Inventory Indicator has risen strongly.
Construction companies’ inventories rose to the
highest since September while there was a slight
increase among manufacturing companies.
Inventories
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
25
Apr-13
Future Expectations for the next three months declined
significantly to 53.5 in February from 59.5 in January,
the first fall in four months. Between January and
February, more construction companies expected
their inventories to fall. Manufacturing companies also
saw a fall in the Expectations Indicator, but by a
smaller degree.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Inventories
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
-
60.1
50.0
50.0
53.1
62.1
64.9
Future Expectations
-
53.7
50.7
53.3
54.6
59.5
53.5
23
24. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
73.0
Input Prices
Highest Since November
Many companies continued to complain about the
high rate of inflation that was adding to their costs as
Input Prices rose to the highest since November,
having eased for the previous two months.
The Input Price Indicator increased to 73.0 in February
from 69.8 in January led by more services and
manufacturing firms reporting higher input prices
compared with a month ago. Construction companies
saw a decline in the Input Price Indicator to the lowest
level since July.
Input Prices
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Expectations for three months’ time accelerated to
72.0 in February, up from 69.9 in the previous month,
driven by a rise in expectations among manufacturing
and service sector companies. The expectations
indicator for construction companies remained broadly
stable at a relatively high level.
May-13
45
Apr-13
24
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Raw materials have become
Containers & Packaging company
costly.”
Input Prices
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
-
74.1
63.3
73.0
71.8
69.8
73.0
Future Expectations
-
72.9
65.3
72.5
66.4
69.9
72.0
25. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
56.2
Prices Received
Lowest Since October
The Prices Received Indicator fell to 56.2 in February
from 60.6 in January, the lowest level since October,
although still at a relatively high level.
Prices Received
80
75
The trend in the Prices Received Indicator over the
past year has been closely matched by the official
inflation data. Latest data showed that wholesale
price inflation eased to 5% in January from 6.2% in
December.
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
30
Nov-12
Construction sector companies reported a rise in the
Prices Received Indicator for the second consecutive
month, while the service sector witnessed a fall.
Manufacturing companies reported a broadly flat
Prices Received indicator compared with last month.
Current Conditions
Expectations for Prices Received in three months’
time remained broadly stable at 61.2 compared with
January’s 60.9.
Between January and February, more manufacturing
and construction sector companies expected the
prices they charge for their goods to rise in the coming
months. In contrast, many service sector companies
highlighted that it was a highly competitive market
and expected to see a decline in prices charged to win
over customers.
Future Expectations
Prices Received and Wholesale Price Inflation
70
9%
8%
60
7%
50
6%
5%
40
4%
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
May-13
3%
Mar-13
30
MNI Prices Received
Wholesale Price Inflation y/y % (RHS)*
*Source: Office of the Economic Advisor, India
Prices Received
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
59.8
61.8
54.9
60.8
58.0
60.6
56.2
Future Expectations
55.8
67.0
57.3
63.8
56.0
60.9
61.2
25
26. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
69.3
Financial Position
Rises Further
Companies were even more optimistic about their
financial position in the coming three months as the
Expectations Indicator jumped 8% to 77.2 in February,
from 71.5 in the previous month.
The Future Expectations Indicator for all three sectors
increased in February with optimism among
manufacturing firms the highest in eight months.
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
45
Jan-13
The BSE benchmark Sensex rose 170 points to a
nearly three week high of 20,634.21 on February 18
driven by gains in banking, capital goods and auto
shares following proposed excise duty cuts in the
interim budget that cheered investors.
90
Feb-13
Between January and February, more manufacturing
companies reported an improvement in their financial
situation while the indicator for services companies
was broadly flat. More construction sector companies
reported their financial position worsened, although
the indicator remained well above the 50 breakeven
mark.
Financial Position
Dec-12
The Financial Position Indicator rose to 69.3 in
February from 68.2 in January, the highest since
November and well above the 56.3 posted in the
same month a year earlier.
Nov-12
26
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“The company’s situation is good in terms of
finance and business, however due to an
increase in the cost of raw materials there is
less profitability now.”
Speciality chemicals manufacturing company
Financial Position
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
56.3
72.3
58.6
69.9
65.2
68.2
69.3
Future Expectations
51.6
83.3
71.1
74.2
71.3
71.5
77.2
27. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
67.3
Interest Rates Paid
Double Digit Hike
The Interest Rates Paid Indicator rose across all
sectors, of which manufacturing companies witnessed
the largest hike as the proportion of those who
reported that they paid higher interest rates compared
with last month increased significantly.
The RBI raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to
8% from 7.75% at its January meeting, citing the
elevated level of consumer price inflation. This was
the third rise in policy rates since Raghuram Rajan
took over the central bank governor in September
2013. The increase would directly impact the equated
monthly instalments (EMIs) on home, automobile and
other loans.
75
70
65
60
55
50
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
45
Mar-13
The Interest Rates Paid Indicator increased to 67.3
from 60.5 in January as more companies reported
that they paid higher interest rates compared with the
previous month. While in January, 27.5% of
companies surveyed reported higher credit costs, in
February this increased to 41.2%. In contrast, the
percentage of companies who reported they faced the
same interest rates fell from 66% in January to 52.2%
in February.
Interest Rates Paid
Feb-13
The decline in interest costs paid by companies over
the past two months was reversed in February
following a hike in official rates by the Reserve Bank
of India.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Between January and February, more manufacturing
and construction companies expected to face higher
credit costs in the next three months, with the Interest
Rates Paid Indicator climbing back into expansion
territory for the former. Service sector companies
expected Interest Rates Paid to decline in the coming
months as the proportion of companies who said
interest rates would fall increased, though the majority
continued to say they would remain the same.
Expectations for Interest Rates Paid in three months’
time remained at inflated levels from June to November
and have subsequently fallen. The Expectations
Indicator, thought, picked up to 60.7 in February from
57.9 in the previous month.
Interest Rates Paid
Feb-13
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
69.2
68.4
-
65.2
Feb-14
60.3
73.2
69.2
60.5
67.3
65.9
69.6
56.8
57.9
60.7
27
29. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
44.2
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Stable Below 50
The Effect of the Rupee Exchange Rate Indicator
remained broadly flat at 44.2 in February compared
with 44.3 in the previous month as companies
continued to report that the current level of the rupee
was hurting their business.
Businesses are asked whether the exchange rate is
helping or hurting their company and a value above
50 shows more firms reported that it was helping,
while a reading below 50 shows the exchange rate
was hurting.
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Expectations for three months’ time increased in
February after remaining relatively stable last month.
The Future Expectations Indicator rose to 45.2, the
highest since July and up from 43.6 in January.
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
The indicator has moved sharply over the past year in
line with the gyrations in the exchange rate. In
February 2013, the indicator stood at a record high of
77.8 showing businesses were benefitting from the
rupee. The indicator fell into contraction in July,
before hitting a record low in October and has since
partially recovered in line with the recovery in the
rupee, although has remained below 50.
Nov-12
20
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Exchange Rate
90
0.019
80
0.018
70
60
0.017
50
40
0.016
30
20
0.015
10
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
0.014
Jan-13
0
MNI Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
US Dollar versus Indian Rupee*
*Source: Reserve Bank of India
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
77.8
31.6
30.9
43.4
39.4
44.3
44.2
Future Expectations
75.5
32.7
30.1
43.5
43.2
43.6
45.2
29
30. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
55.6
Supplier Delivery Times
Highest Since September
60
55
50
45
40
35
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
30
Jul-13
Supplier Delivery Times were expected to lengthen in
next three months, with the indicator increasing
significantly from 51.7 in January to 56.2 in February,
the highest since May 2013. The increase was led by
manufacturing and service sector companies, with
the former rising the most. The Supplier Delivery
Times indicator for construction sector companies fell
to the breakeven 50 level.
65
Jun-13
Construction sector companies reported a lengthening
in supplier delivery times to the highest since July last
year. Manufacturing companies posted a small
increase while service sector companies’ supplier
delivery times were broadly stable compared with last
month.
Supplier Delivery Times
May-13
Supplier Delivery Times have steadily lengthened
since October and they rose to 55.6 in February from
54.4 in the previous month.
Apr-13
30
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Our supplier’s delivery time is stable.”
General mining company
Supplier Delivery Times
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
-
58.4
52.7
52.9
54.2
54.4
55.6
Future Expectations
-
56.1
54.6
55.0
54.2
51.7
56.2
31. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
54.9
Availability of Credit
Tightens on the month
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
30
Feb-13
Businesses expected credit availability to improve
slightly in the next three months as the indicator
increased to 54.8 in February from 54.1 in the
previous month.
70
Dec-12
Service sector companies registered a considerable
decline in credit availability, with the indicator falling
below the breakeven level, while manufacturing and
construction
sector
companies
showed
an
improvement.
Availability of Credit
Nov-12
The indicator measuring the Availability of Credit fell
from 56.8 in January to 54.9, a decline of 3.3% on
the month. The indicator has remained broadly stable
since last year, averaging 53.1 in the past twelve
months.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Construction companies, which were the least
optimistic about future credit conditions last month,
had a positive outlook for the next three months.
Manufacturing companies also expected credit
conditions to improve, with the indicator increasing to
the highest since last September. In contrast, service
sector companies were the least optimistic with the
expectations indicator falling to the breakeven level.
“There is no liquidity or credit availability in the
market.”
Speciality finance company
Availability of Credit
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
57.1
Future Expectations
57.6
61.9
51.3
55.7
52.6
56.8
54.9
65.3
56.6
59.2
58.8
54.1
54.8
31
32. 32
Spitzzeile Titel
What the Panel Said
A selection of comments from the panel of
businesses surveyed over the past month.
33. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
“It is the peak season for business and more orders
are coming.”
Pharmaceutical Company
“People are investing money in fixed return sources due
to instability of market.”
Investment Services Company
“Our company has lots of new orders.”
Transportation Service Company
“The company’s situation is good in terms of finance and
business, however due to the increase in the cost of raw
materials there is less profitability.”
Chemicals Manufacturing Company
“The entertainment business is running successfully.”
Entertainment Services Company
“Our supplier’s delivery time is stable.”
General Mining Company
“We are expecting an improvement in overall business
conditions after elections.”
Real Estate Development & Holding Company
“The business condition is better because of wedding
season that ends in March, after which it is expected
to slow down.”
Hotel
“We are looking forward to positive growth in business
in the coming months.”
Investment Services Company
“There is too much competition in the market and
customers are very sensitive about prices, so we cannot
increase the prices of our products.”
Financial Services Company
“We are not hiring any new people.”
Real Estate Development & Holding Company
“The company’s order book is full.”
Containers & Packaging Company
“Raw materials have become costly.”
Containers & Packaging Company
“Interest rates have increased but banks are not pushing
higher interest costs on to customers.”
Speciality Finance Company
“Credit is available only to some big players and those
who have high goodwill.”
Leasing & Finance Company
“There are no pending orders.”
Consumer Goods Manufacturing Company
“The vendor’s delivery time has declined.”
Financial Services Company
“Our company is operating at its optimum capacity.”
Containers & Packaging Company
“The raw material costs are high.”
General Mining Company
“Our company’s business condition depends on the
country’s real estate situation and from last few months,
it has remained stable.”
Furnishings Company
“Input prices are higher because of pricy imports.”
Containers & Packaging Company
“Our company will recruit more employees in the
coming months.”
Electrical Component and Equipment Company
“There are three big orders with our company this
month.”
Heavy Construction Company
“There is no liquidity or credit availability in the market‘.”
Speciality Finance Company
33
36. 36
MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Historical Records
2012-now
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Median
Current Conditions
47.5
64.6
58.0
58.8
Future Expectations
49.7
77.1
64.8
68.8
MNI India Business Indicator
Production
Current Conditions
41.0
67.3
58.0
58.8
Future Expectations
41.3
76.8
63.3
66.2
Current Conditions
39.7
69.1
56.2
59.1
Future Expectations
40.4
78.5
63.1
65.5
Current Conditions
41.3
63.2
54.9
55.6
Future Expectations
45.2
75.5
61.0
62.6
New Orders
Export Orders
Productive Capacity
Current Conditions
41.0
64.0
54.3
55.8
Future Expectations
40.7
70.3
59.8
60.0
Current Conditions
35.6
59.3
47.3
47.0
Future Expectations
32.8
59.6
44.4
43.5
Current Conditions
48.9
54.1
51.7
51.8
Future Expectations
49.5
57.5
52.7
52.3
Order Backlogs
Employment
Inventories
Current Conditions
47.8
64.9
54.9
53.1
Future Expectations
31.0
59.5
49.3
53.1
Current Conditions
63.3
79.6
71.1
71.8
Future Expectations
62.1
74.9
69.7
71.0
Input Prices
Prices Received
Current Conditions
41.5
67.1
54.9
55.8
Future Expectations
45.1
73.7
57.9
57.3
Current Conditions
53.4
72.3
61.9
61.6
Future Expectations
51.6
83.3
67.7
71.3
Current Conditions
52.8
73.2
64.6
67.2
Future Expectations
50.0
71.7
62.5
64.5
Financial Position
Interest Rates Paid
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Current Conditions
30.9
77.8
51.1
46.5
Future Expectations
30.1
75.5
50.5
45.2
Current Conditions
51.9
59.6
54.8
54.2
Future Expectations
39.5
59.0
52.7
54.4
Current Conditions
41.1
61.9
52.5
53.2
Future Expectations
40.9
65.3
55.5
56.6
Supplier Delivery Time
Availability of Credit
37. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Historical Records - Quarterly
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Quarterly Change
Quarterly % Change
Current Conditions
52.9
58.4
60.7
2.3
3.9%
Future Expectations
54.1
73.4
69.8
-3.6
-4.9%
Current Conditions
47.1
61.4
60.8
-0.6
-1.0%
Future Expectations
50.8
75.0
66.6
-8.4
-11.2%
Current Conditions
47.8
65.0
60.9
-4.1
-6.3%
Future Expectations
48.4
76.8
67.8
-9.0
-11.7%
Current Conditions
46.0
58.6
58.3
-0.3
-0.5%
Future Expectations
52.9
69.0
62.1
-6.9
-10.0%
Current Conditions
45.7
60.4
56.9
-3.5
-5.8%
Future Expectations
49.4
68.8
62.6
-6.2
-9.0%
55.2
49.8
43.3
-6.5
-13.1%
-
46.8
45.3
-1.5
-3.2%
52.4
52.9
50.1
-2.8
-5.3%
-
53.0
50.9
-2.1
-4.0%
52.2
55.9
51.0
-4.9
-8.8%
-
47.4
52.9
5.5
11.6%
70.3
73.5
69.4
-4.1
-5.6%
-
69.7
68.1
-1.6
-2.3%
Current Conditions
44.8
61.8
57.9
-3.9
-6.3%
Future Expectations
47.2
65.9
59.0
-6.9
-10.5%
Current Conditions
57.5
66.0
64.6
-1.4
-2.1%
Future Expectations
57.5
78.2
72.2
-6.0
-7.7%
Current Conditions
57.6
67.3
67.6
0.3
0.4%
Future Expectations
58.2
67.1
64.1
-3.0
-4.5%
Current Conditions
55.9
38.8
37.9
-0.9
-2.3%
Future Expectations
58.9
44.1
38.9
-5.2
-11.8%
54.9
56.0
53.3
-2.7
-4.8%
-
52.2
54.6
2.4
4.6%
Current Conditions
45.7
58.4
53.2
-5.2
-8.9%
Future Expectations
47.0
61.7
58.2
-3.5
-5.7%
MNI India Business Indicator
Production
New Orders
Export Orders
Productive Capacity
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Employment
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Inventories
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Input Prices
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Prices Received
Financial Position
Interest Rates Paid
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Supplier Delivery Time
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Availability of Credit
37
38. 38
MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Methodology
MNI India Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of
Indian business executives at companies listed on
BSE (formerly known as the Bombay Stock Exchange).
Companies are a mix of manufacturing, service,
construction and agricultural firms.
Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a
particular business activity has increased, decreased
or remained the same compared with the previous
month as well as their expectations for three months
ahead, e.g. Is Production Higher/Same/Lower
compared with a month ago?
A diffusion indicator is then calculated by adding the
percentage share of positive responses to half the
percentage of those respondents reporting no change.
An indicator reading above 50 shows expansion,
below 50 indicates contraction and a result of 50
means no change.
Data is collected via telephone interviews. Around
200 companies are surveyed each month.
39. Discovering trends in Emerging
Markets
MNI‘s Emerging Markets Indicators explore attitudes, perspectives and confidence
in Russia, India and China. Our data and monthly reports present an advance
picture of the economic landscape as perceived by businesses and consumers.
Our indicators allow investors, economists, analysts, and companies to identify
economic trends and make informed investment and business decisions. Our data
moves markets.
www.mni-indicators.com
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